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This is by far the BEST info you could get for free from a proven winner without having to spend Hundreds of Dollars for a seminar that leaves you clueless ! ! thx a Million GP.
Im an up n coming online poker pro - also trying to handicapp sports as a side hustle , this is exactly what i needed - appreciate this so so much , and will take adv of any more content / discord i can from you - thanks
Haven’t watched the video yet but based off of what I’ve learned from your previous videos I’m excited to sit and watch the full course! Appreciate the knowledge and depth you put into your videos!
As good as advertised, my favorite part was the explanation of types of books and what moves lines. It helped me see the offshores like bovada and bookmaker in a different light. My journey is starting off as a props bettor and I see I'm wasting my time trying to battle the offshore books. This video was Phil Galfond quality thank you.
Nice video. How do you calculate CLV? Are you looking at the closing line at the sharp book? At the book at which you made the bet? Closing line of the market as a whole? Something else?
Very enjoyable episode, from a learning standpoint I got the most out of the line movement and steaming chasing section. Just so you aware the mic level sound drops a bit around the 2hr mark perhaps because you tilted back a little (minor issue) . Is there a way of classifying line value in play game stats compared to pre kick off? Or is two entirely different situations? Lastly do you think your course will benefit outside USA bettors from European territory? Thanks again
The only thing I would add about moving off air. Most books move off air to get in line with market so they don’t have to take bets and some books move on air because they want to write action. The off market line sticks out like a sore thumb .
This is great content! One question though - ed miller / matthew davidow’s book mentions that steam chasing is a good way to “show up a sportsbook trader” and end up getting you limited very quickly. Have you managed to avoid this issue?
You should still be referencing offshores like: Pinny, Betcris/bookmaker, BetOnline along with Circa. Just because you don't bet at them doesn't mean you can't use their info.
I think so - there are times when we need to get "good enough fairs" automatically for a model that needs player prop prices and we use FD in that case because of the mix of sharp + big menu. I don't think that they are the clear #1 though.
@@TheRiskTakersPodcast alternatives ? i dont know any " sources of truth " to go by other then FD - im getting more into proposition bets , finding it very profitable
Yeah this was filmed at least 6 months ago - at the time they were trying their hand at taking size and moving off action. Does feel like that era is over mostly
Would not say they are sharp - but they do move w/ the market and try to keep their numbers in check. They have improved - but anytime they post their own markets that aren't available elsewhere they are vunerable.
Lost 24u after watching this video . Lost every bet except 1. All straights . I can get all the clv in the world and the bet still wont hit . I do this overtime and it’s not profitable. I either break even or lose . I track bets manage units . All of the above…
what kind of sample are we talking ? 2K - 3K straight bets ? and making + EV bets / CLV - consistently ? - if so then there is something seriously wrong with something your doing - It is very very difficult to have a decent sample - and be in the negative - even w/o CLV / anything - just making good bets overtime - with large sample - its a very hard thing to do - I know this personally and from others - if its anything under 2K bets - wait till your at 5K + - might be negative variance - but if it is a very decent sample - then yeah something isnt right in what ur doing - bet sizing maybe comes to mind - usign 1/4 kelly or 1/2 kelly ? - ive heard of some ppl betting 2-5% of their BR and wondering why they are not making money long term - aslong as ur bet sizing correct - and large sample - i dont see how this could be
im a poker player - put very little time into handicapping - but after a decent sample - i dont see how i can eve not make good profit - i will only bet Max 1.25% of my BR on a single wager - usually 1% or .75% depending - i put maybe 15 mins tops / day into handicapping atm - going be more going forward - but yeah i know others in my same spot -and all say the same thing - with a sample , correct bet sizing - its very very difficult to come out on the negative end of P&L
@@AJRhythmic if u wanna go broke - if u have 1K BR - n ur betting 20-50$ $/ play - how long do u think ur going to last , but if ur betting 5-10$ / play , same question - big difference
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Join my FREE discord with over 3,500 sports bettors helping each other learn: goldenpants.com
This is by far the BEST info you could get for free from a proven winner without having to spend Hundreds of Dollars for a seminar that leaves you clueless ! ! thx a Million GP.
That's the goal - hopefully it's actually better than the paid alternatives!
Thank you so much for producing this for all of us out here seeking to learn how to be better.
Yeah! I’m hoping this gets into the hands of some people who mostly get the junk content
Im so excited to dig into this. Been searching up and down for this very thing
Serendipidous timing! Appreciate this upload GP
You got it - hope it helps!
Im an up n coming online poker pro - also trying to handicapp sports as a side hustle , this is exactly what i needed - appreciate this so so much , and will take adv of any more content / discord i can from you - thanks
Haven’t watched the video yet but based off of what I’ve learned from your previous videos I’m excited to sit and watch the full course! Appreciate the knowledge and depth you put into your videos!
Thank you - appreciate the kind words. I think you will like this one, lmk what you think.
Enjoying this so far! Great job
Sweet!
You are the absolute greatest GP!
Awesome video, great work John!
Thanks greg!
this was REAL LOVE 😢 thank you 🙏🏽
Appreciate it - hope you get something useful from it!
Insanely valuable! Thanks for this
Means a lot, thank you!
As good as advertised, my favorite part was the explanation of types of books and what moves lines. It helped me see the offshores like bovada and bookmaker in a different light. My journey is starting off as a props bettor and I see I'm wasting my time trying to battle the offshore books. This video was Phil Galfond quality thank you.
Nice video. How do you calculate CLV? Are you looking at the closing line at the sharp book? At the book at which you made the bet? Closing line of the market as a whole? Something else?
Thank you once again for making this free!
You got it - very happy with the decision to make this free.
This is gold . Thank you
Appreciate that - glad you think the information is useful!
Very enjoyable episode, from a learning standpoint I got the most out of the line movement and steaming chasing section. Just so you aware the mic level sound drops a bit around the 2hr mark perhaps because you tilted back a little (minor issue) . Is there a way of classifying line value in play game stats compared to pre kick off? Or is two entirely different situations?
Lastly do you think your course will benefit outside USA bettors from European territory? Thanks again
THANK YOU SO MUCH!!!!
You got it! Hope it’s helpful
Excellent video... thank you!!
You got it! Appreciate the kind words
Thank you for what you do
The only thing I would add about moving off air. Most books move off air to get in line with market so they don’t have to take bets and some books move on air because they want to write action. The off market line sticks out like a sore thumb .
Great video thanks for sharing this information
You're welcome - glad you like it!
This is great content! One question though - ed miller / matthew davidow’s book mentions that steam chasing is a good way to “show up a sportsbook trader” and end up getting you limited very quickly. Have you managed to avoid this issue?
Which book do you use for source of truth for golf matchups ? Do you find sites like data golf helpful? Thanks great video.
I live in LV. Is Circa my best sharp book reference?
You should still be referencing offshores like: Pinny, Betcris/bookmaker, BetOnline along with Circa. Just because you don't bet at them doesn't mean you can't use their info.
would u agree that Fanduel is among the sharperst for Player Props ?
I think so - there are times when we need to get "good enough fairs" automatically for a model that needs player prop prices and we use FD in that case because of the mix of sharp + big menu. I don't think that they are the clear #1 though.
@@TheRiskTakersPodcast alternatives ? i dont know any " sources of truth " to go by other then FD - im getting more into proposition bets , finding it very profitable
Thanks for taking the time to share your knowledge and give back to the community. What’s your handicap?
I am a dangerous 8 right now - trying to get that down.
1:10:40 Caesars has me limited to like $20 on all markets. They are definitely not a hybrid book anymore in my opinion. Maybe they used to be
Yeah this was filmed at least 6 months ago - at the time they were trying their hand at taking size and moving off action. Does feel like that era is over mostly
is prize picks a sharp app, Or are they a hybrid
Would not say they are sharp - but they do move w/ the market and try to keep their numbers in check. They have improved - but anytime they post their own markets that aren't available elsewhere they are vunerable.
Dan B brought me here!
Dan B! More than just our accountant - a true promoter and company man!
You are a fucking Godsend.
Appreciate you
roulette lol stop bruh thanks for vid tho gonna watch in full
Lost 24u after watching this video . Lost every bet except 1. All straights . I can get all the clv in the world and the bet still wont hit . I do this overtime and it’s not profitable. I either break even or lose . I track bets manage units . All of the above…
What size are you betting per play? 1 unit and you went 1-26?
what kind of sample are we talking ? 2K - 3K straight bets ? and making + EV bets / CLV - consistently ? - if so then there is something seriously wrong with something your doing - It is very very difficult to have a decent sample - and be in the negative - even w/o CLV / anything - just making good bets overtime - with large sample - its a very hard thing to do - I know this personally and from others - if its anything under 2K bets - wait till your at 5K + - might be negative variance - but if it is a very decent sample - then yeah something isnt right in what ur doing - bet sizing maybe comes to mind - usign 1/4 kelly or 1/2 kelly ? - ive heard of some ppl betting 2-5% of their BR and wondering why they are not making money long term - aslong as ur bet sizing correct - and large sample - i dont see how this could be
im a poker player - put very little time into handicapping - but after a decent sample - i dont see how i can eve not make good profit - i will only bet Max 1.25% of my BR on a single wager - usually 1% or .75% depending - i put maybe 15 mins tops / day into handicapping atm - going be more going forward - but yeah i know others in my same spot -and all say the same thing - with a sample , correct bet sizing - its very very difficult to come out on the negative end of P&L
@@DHpoker27aren’t you supposed to only bet 2-5% of your bankroll
@@AJRhythmic if u wanna go broke - if u have 1K BR - n ur betting 20-50$ $/ play - how long do u think ur going to last , but if ur betting 5-10$ / play , same question - big difference