‘The 2017 General Election: What Happened and What Does it Mean?’
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- Опубликовано: 1 авг 2024
- John Curtice analyses the results of the 2017 UK General Election as well as the specific patterns and factors at play in Scotland.
www.gla.ac.uk/stevensontrust/
Prof. Curtice is _such_ an engaging speaker. I never tire of listening to his analyses.
Fantastic stuff, was just reading a book about the 2017 election, co-written by Sir John Curtice, when I found this!
Why does he use yellow for UKIP and grey for Lib Dem? Bit confusing I think.
totally agree . Didn't go red for labour but kept the conservatives blue CRAZY
20:30
Yes voters vote labour or other left parties is Westminster because we hate the tories, voting Labour rather than snp is more likely to get them out of power.
labour back in 1945 won the middle class vote and young
Lib Dems will suffer for a generation due to putting the Tories in in 2010. Don't expect a rebound for another 10 years at least.
David Eltringham potentially a rebrand or replacement party as they are totally buggered as I see it.
They might return one day. They were nearly wiped out in the 1950s but by the 1970s were getting 20% of the vote. In 1997 many liberals were elected to parliament and most stayed there until 2015 when they were nearly wiped out. Perhaps sometime in the future they will regain votes and seats
10 years is barely a generation
The thing is, the Lib Dem voting bloc in 2005 & 2010 was not an overwhelmingly left-wing one - particularly not by 2010 when they had moved distinctly to the right and would have fit in well in, say, Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats.
Many Lib Dem voters were not that disappointed with the coalition - it's absurd to think that a bloc making up 20% of the voting public was comprised solely of the sorts of people who subsequently went on marches carrying effigies of Nick Clegg. But here's the real problem - just as Lib Dem voters who didn't like the coalition moved to Labour in 2015, Lib Dem voters who thought coalition wasn't too bad moved to the Conservatives - who were very good at taking credit for popular Lib Dem initiatives like raising the income tax threshold. (And I should know - I'm a LD-Con switcher myself, though as an ardent Europhile I have since moved back, and I deeply regret voting for them.)
However, they have a mountain of other problems:
1) Limited media exposure - they're basically treated as an irrelevance
2) Their Europhilia is out of step with their old West Country heartlands
3) Tim Farron's gay problem was off-putting to the party's natural fishing pool of social liberals
4) Vince Cable is extremely past it
5) And actually, while on the surface the polarisation of British politics ought to leave plenty of space in the middle, in reality it leaves two sets of voters driven largely by their hatred of the other side - centrists will grudgingly vote for Labour to keep out the hated Tories or vice-versa (because first past the post is just awful)
It's all of these things put together that are conspiring to block off any Lib Dem revival. It's much more complicated than just tuition fees.
Very insightful comment!