Feel free to watch this video at 1.5X speed. Correction: I have mistakenly said North Korea instead of South Korea while talking about population restoration measures.
This is a right time to actually raise this issue, so that we can discuss, debate and raise awareness, so we can have atleast a decade to formulate policy also, we will have the necessary time for the society and economy to adjust.
I'm a bit confused here. While I see the need for a young workforce, don’t you think most of the places are overcrowded? With India’s population density at over 460 people per square kilometer, overpopulation creates intense competition for limited jobs..
That's a good observation on the surface. Overpopulation does create starvation for limited jobs. But the government has to keep asking people to reproduce even in distress as they cannot afford a loss of population in the future for the myriad of reasons I have mentioned. If they lose population at a rate what China did then, India might not have the money or administrative strength to bring it back up. Plus it's politics, they are here for power, not necessarily welfare. China still has more money power than India plus a large section of the population is employed compared to India (at least on paper). In addition to that in any population there will be a bunch of people who are easily the choice for employment and some have to be made employable. Larger the skill gap larger the problem. The education/skills training system has not been very helpful as yet. If you survey the current status there is one suitable job per 12000 graduates. So you can fathom that huge levels of entrepreneurship and skill upgradation is the only way to even sustain any model. The road ahead is a bit unclear. We need more stats, but unfortunately they can only be analysed in hindsight. Predicting which skills to invest in for future job sectors is also difficult as we are still in a transition phase where we don't know which skill will become non essential after ai and automation had its way.
I guess its more abt maintaining the fertility rate around 2.1 and arrest any drastic fall. With a youthful population, a fraction can easily migrate to other countries as they depopulate, and we can become a powerful global diaspora.
I think it it worth talking about delimitation aspects too. It is a major driver for all states trying to prop up the narrative of dropping fertility rate, not only Mohan Bhagwat!
Without kids there is no future for the country. Population shrinkage will lead to more growth challenges. But I believe India will grow old before it will be rich.
Almost all countries that are really rich have a lower than 2 fertility rate. So I agree with your last statement. Population shrinkage has an asymmetric effect, that is in one sense it is good for employment but bad for consumption and maintaining welfare systems. And since the educated tax payer population shrinks more, it becomes further challenging.
In my opinion we need to reduce our population to about 1 billion. The current level of population is unsustainable. Now, before people start raining down on me, let’s consider the current situation. We have a population of 1.4 billion where the literacy rate is below global averages. Of the so called literates, only a small percentage of them have real job related skills. This very small percentage of our population currently bears a huge percentage of the burden of paying taxes, supporting the production and productivity in the economy. While, at the same time a huge majority of the population is either unemployed or underemployed or posseses such low levels of skill that they only get subsistence wages. This whole thing about democratic dividend is a bogus story spun by governments. We have had virtually no demographic dividend from our growing population. Our infant malnutrition rates are amongst the highest in the world, even now. What demographic dividend can you reap when you have a malnourished population. So, briefly what I am suggesting is - work at reducing population to about a billion. Work hard at enhancing literacy, nutrition, availability of sanitation & health services. Side by side, improve the population skills and productivity - this skilled population will therefore be so much more productive that it can then sustain the smaller level of dependents in a one billion population. There could be some short term pain/disruption but not much given the longer term benefits. But let me say this with a caveat - this long term vision requires governments to work hard and prioritise well. We can’t expect them to do that. So, will have to live with the balderdash that dole out now.
Beautifully said! That's a delicate balance that needs to be established. We can afford to fall to 75-80 crores too. Skill gap is the key thing, plus the number of employment from private players need to go up by a huge level. The problem to earmark, is consumption drop in the low to middle income threshold. Sadly with the wars and political priorities, these huge population is struggling the most. Riches on the other hand are almost bindass! Or if possible are leaving the country. Virat Kohli too now.
That is sadly a smart call. But they will bring up their children in a cost effective manner and marry also in a similar way. Anyhow, people should just do whatever they wish to do rather than what society thinks.
Actually ye itna bura nahi he abhi tak. But politicians ko farak padta he delimitation ke wajah se. Population kaam hoga toh parliament mein unka seat kaam ho jaega aur north jo relatively gareeb states jahan bacche zyada he unka seats badh jaega
Feel free to watch this video at 1.5X speed.
Correction: I have mistakenly said North Korea instead of South Korea while talking about population restoration measures.
This is a right time to actually raise this issue, so that we can discuss, debate and raise awareness, so we can have atleast a decade to formulate policy also, we will have the necessary time for the society and economy to adjust.
Agreed.
I'm a bit confused here. While I see the need for a young workforce, don’t you think most of the places are overcrowded? With India’s population density at over 460 people per square kilometer, overpopulation creates intense competition for limited jobs..
That's a good observation on the surface. Overpopulation does create starvation for limited jobs. But the government has to keep asking people to reproduce even in distress as they cannot afford a loss of population in the future for the myriad of reasons I have mentioned. If they lose population at a rate what China did then, India might not have the money or administrative strength to bring it back up. Plus it's politics, they are here for power, not necessarily welfare. China still has more money power than India plus a large section of the population is employed compared to India (at least on paper). In addition to that in any population there will be a bunch of people who are easily the choice for employment and some have to be made employable. Larger the skill gap larger the problem. The education/skills training system has not been very helpful as yet.
If you survey the current status there is one suitable job per 12000 graduates. So you can fathom that huge levels of entrepreneurship and skill upgradation is the only way to even sustain any model. The road ahead is a bit unclear. We need more stats, but unfortunately they can only be analysed in hindsight. Predicting which skills to invest in for future job sectors is also difficult as we are still in a transition phase where we don't know which skill will become non essential after ai and automation had its way.
I guess its more abt maintaining the fertility rate around 2.1 and arrest any drastic fall. With a youthful population, a fraction can easily migrate to other countries as they depopulate, and we can become a powerful global diaspora.
I think it it worth talking about delimitation aspects too. It is a major driver for all states trying to prop up the narrative of dropping fertility rate, not only Mohan Bhagwat!
Without kids there is no future for the country. Population shrinkage will lead to more growth challenges. But I believe India will grow old before it will be rich.
Almost all countries that are really rich have a lower than 2 fertility rate. So I agree with your last statement. Population shrinkage has an asymmetric effect, that is in one sense it is good for employment but bad for consumption and maintaining welfare systems. And since the educated tax payer population shrinks more, it becomes further challenging.
In my opinion we need to reduce our population to about 1 billion. The current level of population is unsustainable. Now, before people start raining down on me, let’s consider the current situation.
We have a population of 1.4 billion where the literacy rate is below global averages. Of the so called literates, only a small percentage of them have real job related skills. This very small percentage of our population currently bears a huge percentage of the burden of paying taxes, supporting the production and productivity in the economy. While, at the same time a huge majority of the population is either unemployed or underemployed or posseses such low levels of skill that they only get subsistence wages.
This whole thing about democratic dividend is a bogus story spun by governments.
We have had virtually no demographic dividend from our growing population. Our infant malnutrition rates are amongst the highest in the world, even now. What demographic dividend can you reap when you have a malnourished population.
So, briefly what I am suggesting is - work at reducing population to about a billion. Work hard at enhancing literacy, nutrition, availability of sanitation & health services. Side by side, improve the population skills and productivity - this skilled population will therefore be so much more productive that it can then sustain the smaller level of dependents in a one billion population. There could be some short term pain/disruption but not much given the longer term benefits.
But let me say this with a caveat - this long term vision requires governments to work hard and prioritise well. We can’t expect them to do that. So, will have to live with the balderdash that dole out now.
Beautifully said! That's a delicate balance that needs to be established. We can afford to fall to 75-80 crores too. Skill gap is the key thing, plus the number of employment from private players need to go up by a huge level. The problem to earmark, is consumption drop in the low to middle income threshold. Sadly with the wars and political priorities, these huge population is struggling the most. Riches on the other hand are almost bindass! Or if possible are leaving the country. Virat Kohli too now.
I request all the unemployed and low income people who earn less than 50k salary, please do not Marry or not have children. Don’t become Poor.
That is sadly a smart call. But they will bring up their children in a cost effective manner and marry also in a similar way. Anyhow, people should just do whatever they wish to do rather than what society thinks.
Sir South India ki too fertility bhot low hai
Actually ye itna bura nahi he abhi tak. But politicians ko farak padta he delimitation ke wajah se. Population kaam hoga toh parliament mein unka seat kaam ho jaega aur north jo relatively gareeb states jahan bacche zyada he unka seats badh jaega
Nonsense reasons,No science here
Thanks for your honest opinion. However, could you clarify which logics seemed nonsensical to you?