Unstoppable Real Estate CRASH as Unemployment Rises
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 15 май 2024
- 2008 real estate bubble was dwarf in comparison to the current market. Sticky inflation, terrible consumer debt, lack of savings, and job losses are taking its toll in the U.S. economy.
In this interview with Apartment and Commercial Real Estate Expert, Leslie O. Andren, explains how the potential economic crisis may be much worse than 2008.
#realestatenews #housingmarketnews #commercialrealestate
Todd Sachs is a Maryland Real Estate Broker and not a Lender, CPA, Attorney, or Financial Advisor.
Any information provided in this and any of Sachs Realty's videos and/or descriptions are for entertainment purposes only and not to be construed as broker representation, legal, financial or tax advice. All content written, spoken or implied is for informational purposes and deem to be accurate, but not guaranteed. It is your sole responsibility to verify any and all information for accuracy and correctness.
Todd Sachs or Sachs Realty is not representing you unless you have a written representation agreement. This is not an advertisement for a property for sale, and if you're currently represented by another Real Estate Brokerage, this is not an attempt to solicit your representation.
Sachs Realty is EVERYTHING REAL ESTATE!
Looking to buy or sell? We efficiently assist buyers, sellers, landlords and tenants in Maryland with both residential and commercial real estate services.
NOT IN MARYLAND? We offer nationwide assistance to buyers and sellers through our PREFERRED BROKER REFERRAL of great real estate professionals like us!
If you're in need of residential or commercial assistance, you can always expect timely, reliable and top-notch service from Sachs Realty or any referral agent we recommend.
What's your real estate need? We want to hear from you! Email Todd Sachs directly at ts@sachsrealty.com with your inquiries.
Main Office: Sachs Realty 443-318-4514
Maryland Broker License Number 607720
Equal Housing Opportunity
I'm typically not for regulation, but you got to get Wall Street out of the single family home business. And while you're at it, foriegn countries should be prohibited from purchasing farm land and other critical areas.
Agreed!!!!
There not it’s only 15%
China investing here is a good thing
Yeah but then what if there aren’t any buyers among families / smaller interests? Regulation can’t solve that! The whole market could just grind to a standstill
Agreed !!!
He keeps interrupting her and making her lose her train of thought because he doesn't understand what she is trying to say and therefore changing the direction of the conversation never allowing her to make her point. She is very knowledgeable in this field and instead of listening to what she is saying he doesn't understand she's saying and interrupting her. She is not disagreeing with him he just doesn't get her points because he can't listen well.
Yep! I see someone else commented the same thing I did 😂
Stop mansplaining her! For f… sake 🤨😂
Listening is a skill so many people don’t have, and are driven by ego. Sad.
People who cannot listen also cannot understand, so they won’t know what hit them when something big happens.
Leslie is the best interview yet. Please bring her back.
I didnt even finish watching the interview. And Im already saying ya gotta get her on again. When things begin to unravel. She was great.
SADLY, THIS DOWN TURN IS BEING ORCHESTRATED BY GOD HIMSELF. SHE WON'T BE ANY HELP.
We need to hear from Leslie every 90 days as this economic catastrophy unfolds. Great job putting her on your channel!
If I get a good tenant I leave them alone. So nice . I have tenants stay for 7 and 8 years. When they left they were able to buy there own homes. No reason to be a bad landlord. I made plenty of money and they were able to fix their credit and buy homes. Extra note I have had plenty of horrible renters .🥴
90% are horrible and no amount of rent can cover the damages.
@@MrBob1984 then there wouldnt be a rental market
You're a good landlord ❤
@@grimaffiliations3671your very right, if there was no inflation there would not be a rental market. Inflation actualy makes it a viable business, but again most renters cause more damage than can be recovered from rent
@@MrBob1984 no im saying if renters really were that destructive, it wouldn't be wort renting to them and there wouldn't be a market
I wish he would have let her talk. It's like he invited her on to listen to him talk.
Our govt wants a nation of renters
That's what I'm thinking too
As communist leaders always want
@@6speed818 then why are they trying to pay for parts of peoples mortgages? The obvious problem creating too many renters is too little supply. We need to let cities and suburbs start growing like they used to instead of blocking new housing with mandates and parking minimums etc
Who cares
You will own nothing and you will like it. Said Klaus Schwab - good old WEF.
A google search gave me this. Makes me angry beyond words. 44% of flipped single-family home purchases were by private investors in 2023. Private equity firms have been carving out an increasingly substantial share of single-family home purchases, raising concern about the potential consequences for housing affordability and market competitiveness.Mar 15, 2024
This is something NOBODY talks about and I believe it's what's keeping " comps" UP on entry level homes and keeping 1st time buyer out. It's so obvious in the market but no mention on any of these channels.
Right, more and more are being bought up by investors, builders building more and more single family homes, duplexes, triplexes, 4plexes that are build to rent not build to buy. There is a house right around the corner from me over 2000 sq ft, 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, double car garage plus a separate triple work garage on a corner lot flipped 3 TIMES. Last time it sold over a year ago it went for $170k to a family from California who have been there ever since.
Probably higher than that. It's big corporate against the individual, couple, etc. Monolopolising. Anti trust law Sherman act violations.
Where in Cali? It sounds super cheap to me, living in WA STATE. Is it in a teensy town in the boonies? Edit: Oh, NOT in CA. I'm curious: What state?@winniethepoohandeeyore2
@@bellakrinkle9381 They moved from California.
I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2025. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
Investing in real estate and stocks might be a wise choice, particularly if you have a sound trading plan that can get you through profitable days.
You're not doing anything wrong; you simply lack the expertise necessary to make money in a bad market. In these difficult circumstances, only really skilled experts who witnessed the 2008 financial crisis can expect to generate a large wage.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
My CFA, Desiree Ruth Hoffman, is a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for this tip. I must say, Desiree appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
My gut is feeling like this is going to get crazy the next few years. Especially with the election looming!!!
It could, but don’t hold your breath. Those of us who have been waiting for a downturn for years have learned the hard way that this circus can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.
I sold my home in early 2020 and a friend said wow! good job...perfect timing dude! Then it jumped in value about 450k as I earned .57% intetest for a couple years. When will I quit trying to time any market? I feel bad for pets and children when it all tumbles down .
They are the hardest hit victims.
Money printing
Buy a piece a land and put a trailer on it. Cheaper taxes. Place to live. Or look for houses that are 10 - 15 thousand. Fix up and live cheap. Live within your means. Lol
IF WE HAVE AN ELECTION......
My Uncle was a builder in the 1950's. Banks competed for interest rates lowering to get the loan. No qualifying. Every building he built had positive cash flow. He had fifty rentals by 1969 and sold it all out right before the great debasement (inflation). Now the bubble has inflated prices. Forty year bond bull is over, dead. We are going back to normal. People are freaking out going back to the norm, 7% mortgages, which is the 100 year average. We shall see how this all shakes out. Protect yourself.
Exactly, we are actually at the historical average as far as interest rates.
Corporations like Blackstone own enough homes in my neighborhood that rents are artificially bumped up by $400 per month. BUT, that extra money is being sucked up by corrupt politicians who bumped the property taxes by $300 per month on all the rental houses. Shelter inflation is 5.7% and the property taxes are never going back down. The crash some think can happen... can't.
@@winniethepoohandeeyore2 except that the housing prices are way above average...
Except we changed how we measure GDP and all our algorithms,
We began printing baseless currency and using that currency to buy bonds. By the way, that's what causes the 40 year run on bonds.
It's also the reason boomers are still our politicians.
Shouldn't prices of houses go down since interest rates are up?
Sitting in my home mortgage free - my insurance went up 40% this year. Being mortgage free, I am free to cancel.
be sure to make yourself judgment-proof to protect your asset (home). In some states your homestead is automatically protected
What a fool you are. If you had a mortgage at 2.5% your money could be gaining 8% in the market. You're LOSING money! Guess your unintelligent parents never taught you how to handle money. Haha, don't cry little old man. You won't be here much longer. Haha.
And when you most expensive asset burns to the ground, then what......?
@@glockdoc001 First thing I did after I met the prerequisites.
Thing is with a home policy. If the place burns you'll only get pennies on the dollar.
to clarify, we do NOT need affordable housing but rather we need housing to be affordable!
And you're TOTALLY correct on the key to lowering house prices is to get rid of regulation which is what drives all the costs up.
Yep affordable housing is a percentage of the mean in an area-so 600-700k for a townhouse in my area 🙁
Greed is absolutely blinding to those that drink it. The Real Estate and Finance business only goal is to make fast money. Trust in the real estate marketeers has reached a new LOW!
Here's the story of our economy...
There was once a frugal, yet brilliant farmer who trained his horse to eat sawdust by gradually mixing larger proportions of dust into his feed every day. The horse was fully trained by the end of his life.
? a horse needs nutrients. ?
Median apart rents in our area in 2019 were about $1,300. Now they are $1,800+. Renters are biting the bullet and paying it anyways bc they need a place to live, and can't qualify for a mortgage even if there was inventory for them to buy. The housing market is very sickly right now, it's completely out of balance and out of whack. This will either go 2 ways. First way, it will RTM over many years. Second, commercial crash will spiral into a liquidity crisis where financial institutions stop lending, and the Fed has to decide to either hold firm and let the crash happen, or are they going to slash rates and risk spiraling us into a 70's style inflation resurgence
Don't forget the quantitative easing. Gotta bail everyone out. (sarcasm)
Still a better value
@@dissident112 That falls under 2nd option. And the real staggering risk is spiraling us into 70's inflation resurgence.
I was a home builder in the 2008 debacle and like everyone took a beating. But that was a deflationary beast . This time it may be an inflationary beast. Which I am thinking is much worse.
People are crazy buying these homes
Its always a cycle and every cycle is a transfer of wealth.. rinse and repeat
Sadly people are paying 6 figures over ask price where I live still!
/ over paying , it's going on all over. It'll turn out what's called buyers regret 😮 more then likely then not 🤦.
Over 5 million home owners and growing are at least 1 month behind on mortgages, the rate of people in underwater mortgages is rising more and more.
This will not end well
I work for my county assessor office. People are getting hit with tax bills that they were not expecting.
@@SleepyNeo yep! Even the people with low interest rates mortgages are skyrocketing because of taxes and insurance.
Very insightful thread, my family and I plan on either buying land and a RV, drilling for water and solar panels. In order to be as self sufficient as possible. Or we wait until things crash and buy when the market crashes.
Stupidest thing I saw during the 06/07 run up craze was developers converting hotels into condos. All they were doing was installing kitchenettes (hot plates) and calling them "urban living studios" I went back last year and noticed they were all torn down and now empty lots
Less talking. More listening Todd. 22:02
I just love this interview. You’ve been knocking it out of the ballpark with the wisdom & experience of your guests!
"IT WILL BE BIBLICAL"
"the rapture is coming"
Great show!! Leslie was great too!! Would love to see on the show again. Her experience brings a different perspective.
I got burned on a home I built in 2007. I built with my own hands a home mortgage free for now. Finally, think I am sitting right.
I am young and cant sleep at night for the same reasons. Live in Chicagoland area too and work in real estate. Institutional buyers flooded the market, with easy money and compete with people who try to get the mortgage with high rates, high prices and income going down. Most likely market will balance out in a very severe way and if institutions will not be banned from buying residential, they will buy even more... Leslie is on the spot for sure, being very objective. Thanks for the video.
I'm honestly more worried about the stock market than real estate now. A lot of people talk about it since the last big bubble was the housing one but the stock market is an even bigger bubble. You have to look at the ratio of the S&P500 value to housing prices. Housing is sctually cheap compared to stock. It has never ever been this bad, not even in 2000.
People are buying houses they can't afford, betting the rates will go down...
Some of these people will be losing their jobs, and these houses are going to be foreclosed on in mass.
Inflation has been going up steadily ytd while GDP is collapsing. The next GDP number is going to be critical. If it is less than 1% things are going to get weird.
Not necessarily. There are many safe guards in place to protect against "self written income" and lumping people with poor credit together. Many house poor people maybe but not can't afford. If inflation gets worse and jobs are cut then yes they are in a house they can't afford.
@jimsonjohnson3761 , you aren't looking at the whole picture.
1. Consumer debt is at an all time high. Just because the bank approves someone for a loan doesn't mean they can actually afford it. A majority of people are racking up credit card debt to live beyond their means.
2. Property taxes. Many people are shocked after buying a new house with massive increase in Property taxes as they are reassessed. Some areas of the country it exceeds a 100% property tax increase, some places are over 500% with corrupt assessors.
3. Insurance. Many parts of the country Insurance companies are drastically increasing rates too. Lots of companies are fleeing areas with severe weather or flood risks, so Consumers have to pay a fortune.
4. Banks are letting people temporarily buy down interest rates. When that expires.. bad times.
5. Layoffs are increasing around the country.
John Cox , who ran for governor in California, said overregulation was the main cause of the high price and shortage of housing in California.
California is controlled by socialist corrupt democrats.
For builders maybe. But then you see some of the shitty work builders do and you wonder what is good. Regulation or not. It's two sides of the same.
The regulations aren't geared towards the quality of materials/work. It's a lot of red tape that feeds the bureaucracy. Permits for this, inspections for that, restrictions on where/when/what to build.
Over regulation is being pushed by the companies that gain from fewer competition in the market place so they don't have to lower their profit margins with competition.
@@sergiootero5904 and none of that is related to quality...riiight
Yes! Have Leslie back!
Great information being talked about!
I got caught in 08 but I was developing residential properties. I saw it coming in 05 but because of Government regulations and foot dragging i couldn't complete. 3 days after i pulled permits, IndyMac collapsed!
Wonderful and thank you Leslie and Todd. Yes definitely have Leslie back.👍
Lesley was awesome! Tod, thanks for allowing her to come to your show. Keep the great information coming because we really need it during these dark times.
Anytime the government gets involved, the problems get worse. It was interesting to hear Leslie's opinion, do have her back.
Of course, it's always been that way. The real question is, why do YOU still support gov't?
Great hour long dialog.
I truly appreciate Sachs Realty podcasts.
24 years of RE experience in Title Industry & RE Sales Agent here in STL, MO area.
Banks should sell it only to the primary homeowners not investors and have the government gives incentives to the banks to sell those homes to the primary homeowners who live in the house.must live in the house for 5 years to qualify for it.
Agreed!
If the money is there then they don't care. As businesses should. Less risky too.
Leslie is extremely knowledgeable and discussed topics I’ve never thought about before. Great guest. You should bring her back at least quarterly.
Excellent discussion! Thanks to both of you. if we have a recession, or worse yet a depression, landlords will have to lower rents if they don't want to evict most of their tennants.
It's definitely alarming to hear about a default cycle, especially in the context of the housing market. Defaults can lead to foreclosures, and that has a cascading effect on the overall real estate landscape.
I can't wait. It's long overdue. Prices going down... cry me a river.
Real estate is a currency play, in investment in dollars, not real estate. New house in 1933 was 235 ounces of gold. New house in 2022, 235 ounces of gold. All just currency debasement. We are at the mercy of debt, dollars, to pump up price from $4,700 in 1933 to $470,000 in 2022. Same 2235 ounces of gold, up 100x in nominal price, reflecting debasement, but same price in gold. If credit dries up or interest rates rise prices fall, just like a bond. We are in a massive global debt bubble. What to do? Protect yourself.
I did.......debasement / printing = inflation
@@bluedogfish2 Dollar down 6% against silver today. An ounce is always an ounce of silver but dollar falls in buying power.
I worked at the Treasury with the agencies, and they didnt have a choice as to who to sell those dlq mortgages to in bulk, as they needed imnediate cash and small investors were to illiquid to buy.
The new American Dream is to get out of Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Portland, Chicago, and New York, and move into a smaller City, or even the Country Side, and buy a nice Single Family Home for far more cheaper, with Homes closer to nature, clean neighborhoods, friendly People, and low crime rates.
The Big Urban Cities are a cesspool of over inflated prices everywhere, high crime rate, lack of connection with the People, shitty Government policies, and fast life and problems.
Yeah, they should move to Florida or Texas😂🤣😂🤣😂😂☠️🔥
@@jabreck1934 Are you living under a rock?
Have you not seen how many People left CA and NY and moved to Texas and Florida.
Very good information, it was nice to hear Leslie saying the oil is the main reason that everything is going up because everybody else is talking about many other possibilities, but always the industry bloom or decrease when the oil gets affected.
So people are encouraged to invest in real estate and come to find out that the rug is being pulled out from under you . 😡
Ty…. U get it
These 2 just to towing the company line or (pshyce) like the dude kept babbling about
happens in every asset bubble. Bubbles always produce bag-holders once the music stops
Ya know. The fact that these buildings are leveraged with cheap money about to reset makes all of it sub-prime. The haircut across all asset classes needs to be AT LEAST 50%. I'm a small fry, but I don't build or buy unless the deal pencils out. Refinancing later to a lower rate at these premiums should not be an option!! Replacement cost is way overblown & not real. Everyone is full of crap. Unless values go back to where 5 to 7% money makes sense, then the asset is not sellable. I made tons of money at 10 to 12 %, but values were much cheaper.
Todd, this (again) was a great interview. Leslie really knew her stuff. I hope that you invite her back. Great video!
Excellent interview. So refreshing. Leslie is honest regarding precarious real estate conditions in Chicago, Cook County, Illinois
Crook county IL sweet home Chi-raq
Can't wait as a 1st time home buyer for the crash Let's goooo
@RC-fi4ix House prices need to come waay down 👎 I can't wait for the lawsuits to start for these over priced homes people are underwater on
@@daninthedirt9449 Your own nothing and be happy
When the housing market crashes there will be no jobs.
Property taxes are higher than what our grandfathers paid for their houses.
I have 400,000 in cash waiting. But I'm not sure if it will come. People are just crazy for buying these homes!
Great show! Yes - bring her back. You guys bring the information we need.
Outstanding interview. The problem that is happening now is that Apartment Syndicators are sending out capital calls to limited partner investors. The capital calls mean that investors have to bring more money to their apartment investment which will allow the general partner to stop the cash hemorrhaging. If they do not bring more cash to rescue a failing investment the General Partner has a right to dilute ownership percentage, stop the 8% distribution, stop communicating with the investor, and sue the investor for the money!
Folks are staying in regular motels & extended stay motels because of recent eviction status on their credit,proof of incomes are to low to qualify,job history is questionable,application fees are ridiculous,security deposits are like closing cost & down payments & all the other hoops people have to jump though to lease a home or apartment!!!#WallStreetIs@ItAgain#CertainDemographicsAreGettingSingledOut#HomelessnessIsAboutToSkyrocket#TheTideRollingBackAndItsSoManyFolksAreNaked!!!!!#FakeProsperity#FOMOIsGone#MostConsumersAreBroke!!!!
Great guest. Thanks!!!
Yes, I really enjoyed listening to Leslie.
Todd,
I agree totally with the development / regulatory costs, but I never hear people talk about ALL of the property taxes.
I make sure to tell renters that if people keep voting for new fire halls: police departments, etc they will see their rents go up.
You can house a fire department in a pole barn, but they always want a building that is more glorious than the taxpayers homes that pay for it.
Property taxes need to be abolished and exchanged with a 2% consumption tax.
During the GFC, we were buying houses 40-50% below what they sold for in 2008, the property taxes never went down and then when the inflation money printers exploded the money supply, the houses went up triple in our area of Oregon. Guess what, so did the property taxes. Inflation is the hidden tax to the people who didn’t pay attention.
Every one needs to read “ The Creature from Jekyll Island” . The bankers admitted that they didn’t need to tax the people but should in order to train the people to be under their control.
Thanks for giving us all of your knowledge in order to help us.
You on meth..????....who is building fire halls and police departments,...????...its all going to schools and illegals.....
we need a land value tax that replaces property and income taxes
Umm wierd
@@grimaffiliations3671 That is what a property tax is. The county has my farm assessed for nearly $2 million and are taxing me based on that value because they think that is what a real estate developer would pay for it...even though it is not for sale and hasn't been since my grandad paid $25K for it in 1971.
@@trevorn9381 nah land value taxes only target the unimproved value of your land. The property itself is totally tax free. It would save you a tonne of money, especially if you're using the land efficiently with like a second floor or something
Thanks Leslie. Leant a lot.
Sir, please let Leslie speak without interrupting. She is a domain expert.
Leslie was great… I look forward to hearing more from her in the future!
What a great episode thank you Lesli! Please come back
This is 2 years late
Real estate has been stellar. If you bought a home 2 years ago you had a phenomenal rate and for the most part a cheap average home price than now. Now rates are up and prices aren't really budging much.
This will age like milk. Prices are not going up and there's this thing called inflation.
@@jimsonjohnson3761soon to lose much equity and be unable to refi or sell without bringing money to pay off the loan
Good job Todd. You didn’t pull your punches with your guest. Good job again.
Thank you for sharing!
Great information Leslie-you really know your stuff 👍
Thank you Leslie great insight! She's welcome anytime great knowledge to be expressed
During the GFC my complex reduced Monthly rents for new renters. Existing stayed the same.
2009 In Gaithersburg, Maryland, I was paying $700 in rent. For me, that was beautiful.
Great Video with Leslie, she was excellent!
Leslie, a wealth of knowledge and experience! Thank you so much.
Great to see both of you telling hard truths.
Great interview! Thank you.
Yep, enjoyed this guest.
Todd the government could stop that in a heartbeat if they wanted to and they’ve done it before in past years if the towns don’t want affordable housing then the government should not subsidize the schools or anything in that town. And that would change their minds quick
You obviously don't understand what government is doing lol.
Good points ; Ty
Excellent information. Thank you.
So is this mostly commercial real estate distress or also residential? Sounds like both, but the commercial side might be worse.
Great guest, great discussion. Listened twice. Thank you both for your time and expertise.
I love your channel and hope it’s a big wake up call!
Yes, bring Leslie back. Great interview!
One of your best, Todd.
She works with the super rich wall.street
Not a fan of Wall St .
Big money SSSSS got involved in used cars too and that has become crazy too. Carvana and Carmax and others leveraged with Wall Street money everything is way unaffordable and overpriced!!!
“I wish i was a CEO or executive for Wallstreet or a muti billion dollar corporation…i would pass my many muti million dollar bonuses unto the workers/employees!!!”#Live&LetLive#ShareTheProserity#NoMoreMorale&FinancialHoarding#PayPeopleWhatTheyAddToYourBottomLine#LeverageIsGoodOnlyWhenProsperityIsSharedEqually#Honesty#Integrity#Honorable
I would like to hear more about the possibility of government forced mortgage modifications. That sounds so dangerous.
lol
I don't usually leave comments on videos. However, this video was amazing and insightful 👏
No it wasn’t rook
There are many sirens for the housing collapse in the USA certainly CRE has to be the loudest,yet people even under duress have been paying very high levels of rents and mortgages.This sent a message to the asset holders that the pleb class were able to pay these very high rents and mortgages
THANK YOU
FOR SHARING TRUTH
Thank you so much
Excellent video thank you!
Great time listening
Fantastic interview!
Regulations! You nailed it Todd
It is crippling
Unfortunately there’s still no inventory in the northeast
yet
Great interview!
Let her speak and don't interrupt.
As a renter, bring Leslie back!
Houses are for living in, This greed is out of control. Homelessness is skyrocketing across the country.
Thanks!
Thank you 🙏
Great interview ❤
Great show and guest
I think conversions are a good idea regardless of if it's pricy, the alternative is empty office parks like the ones around me. So many for lease signs and weeds taking over the lots!
Also, Todd, cutting the red tape wouldn't stop these builders from overcharging, give me a break. That $ would go straight to the executive suite
Spot on, Leslie!
Great interview.