The hobby is lucky to have someone like you educating people about the hobby. The speculation bubble of the pandemic will take time to completely deflate. Still too many speculators trying to flip cards to "greater idiots".
@@oldhab7890 Never be shy at thanking Chris; he’s one of the good guys in the hobby who give collectors a fair shake. I plan to sell my collection which includes all 4 sports going back to the late 60’s.
Love your insight! It cracked me up you saying “I mean I don’t want to hurt PSA or anything” 😂 I know you meant it sincerely but me and you both know PSA has been robbing people blind for years and years on the fees and on the under grading. I watch all your videos and trust you wayyyyy over any grader they have and if you think it’s a 7-8 and it comes back a 5…. Something isn’t right
Got back into the hobby in 23 did this exact same thing with the Adley card. Learned this lesson exactly as you described. I am way more selective with what goes to PSA/SGC now thanks for making this video for other collectors. Love your content
I keep thinking the grading lunacy will slow down, but it seems that as long as people are willing to massively overpay for base 10’s at release, then it will keep happening indefinitely haha
Great video - I’m seeing the same poor choices with some people grading mid-low grade vintage. A recent purchase of around 300 SGC vintage baseball cards in which the seller had spent $4,500+ in grading fees had a retail value around $4,000 because most of the low grade 70’s cards were worth $5-$10 each. I often share your videos dealing with grading when I see opportunities to save someone from making a blunder like that.
I've seen videos similar to that too. I've even tried to say "dip your toe in before diving into the deep end" in pre-graded vids. With how fast turnaround at SGC is, you can send off 5 or 7 cards, and get a feel for what the rest of your sub is and go from there. They don't listen. The reveal videos are hard to watch. A 1975 Don Sutton in a 3 just ain't worth it, Bubba. It may just be a PC card now, but for 15 bucks you could own a 7.
I've seen so many people going around social media saying "grade everything" and hunting for a 10 to justify the behavior. Price differences between 9 and 10 is the new way to throw away money like gambling. Your charts remind me of IPO stock charts where most have the same trajectory once hype dies off.
PSA on PSA. Supply on these cards eventually catches up with demand. The graphs really prove the point. Thanks Chris for sharing the data and educating the hobby.
Love your channel and watch every episode you put out. I have a comment as an individual who sells at a local flea market booth. Since there is no local card shop in my town, I can buy say the CJ Stroud Mosaic PSA 10 you mentioned off Ebay tax free for $20.00 and put it in my booth and put a price tag of $35.00 on it and it will sell. I have learned over the past two years of doing this with hundreds of cards is that not everyone has knowledge of buying these cards online, like for example the grandmother who knows her grandson collects Patrick Mahomes, and during Christmas time sees it in the booth for $30 and buys it as a gift, even though she could do some research and purchase it off eBay for less. I have done quite well buying PSA slabs for $30 and under and selling them locally for a nice markup.
One of the issues is the high quality of the mass-produced cards coming out. Back in the 80s/90s there were a ton of cards, but they were inferior in quality and all paper. That is why we see a PSA 10 Nolan Ryan from 1986 Topps go for $2k. You could have 1000 of those cards and not one would get a PSA 10.
A lot of people that aren’t so good at math get a morale boost for their $1 base card coming back a PSA 10. They see it was a win and helps their ego that they have a good eye for geming cards. PSA has them right where they want them.
We need to also remember, a good chunk of these cards were sent in when the 10s were selling for hundreds of dollars. Its not like most people are sending them thinking they will sell for less than the grading fee.
Chris, thank you so much for showing us the advantages and disadvantages of grading and if and when we should grade! You have literally saved me hundreds of dollars that I would’ve otherwise spent!
Thanks again for the awesome info. I have been very slow to send cards in for this reason. I guess I would say (and so does my wife) that I am just a collector. We might have to get a bigger house for my cards. Love it though. Thanks again.
If you are buying/slabbing to flip then losing $ is part of the endeavor a certain amount of the time... If you are buying/slabbing to create and store value you'll also succeed only occasionally... If you buy/slab what you want to collect you get the best return...
In general, you are right Chris. A lot of these cards have no business being submitted. I think the main reason people do, is most of these players were projected to be All-Star/HOF type potential so people get them graded right away so they have them at a cheap price point incase they do moon later.
If people dont think this is worse then the junk wax era, then they are badly mistaken. Whenever there is thousands of cards for one rookie player, we have a huge problem. This is why even great rookies/players isnt even worth much because there are soooo many cards of that player. Its not like back in the days where there are only 1 or 2 rookie cards per player. Also, the prices for packs and boxes has gotten wayyyy out of hand.
Yah I 100% agree with your points. I actually like Adley Rutschman to and maybe he still pans out later. No I dont have his PSA 10 base cards. Your vid also shows how tough it is to have a Hall of Fame type sports career and so many good prospects fall by the wayside. I mean Ron Acuna injuries and geez Wander Franco & the like. This is not Covid pricing anymore where PSA 10 base cards make you big returns either. Yep just making PSA well off. Prospecting is tough. Maybe its better to let the player prove themself over time if you have the time. In my opinion where the hobby is Base cards just do not cut it unfortunately. You have to go way back in time & high grade (both) & be a Hall of Fame player for base cards to be worth it.
I think another concerning number from the trickle down effect is the pop counts on 7s, 8s, and 9s. If you think about the amount of crack-outs to potentially get the next higher grade, you have to realize those pop counts are skewed high. Because, just because you crack out a 9 and get a 10, doesn’t mean the existence of that 9 doesn’t still exist in PSA’s numbers. And I’ve noticed how hard it has become to find immaculate raw examples of cards, because if a dealer or LCS would’ve suspected a 10 they would’ve sent it in already. So, in my opinion, you need to be vigilant when negotiating for raw cards. I wouldn’t pay close to comps for a raw card at this point.
Chris; You make a great point near the end of the video; all those collectors dollars that are wasted grading cards are not being used or reinvested back into the hobby that PSA receives.And if you think The Big Wigs at PSA are spending their money on sportscards, I have a Gavin Lutz card worth big money!!
Great video and much needed! I don't send a card for grading unless the value for my low estimated grade is at least $50. People seem to be sending in way too many rookie prospects, that's a losing bet every time.
I think that's baseball prospecting 101 which has been done for probably 30 plus years. I think the another part of this is that grading is way more expensive then it ever was so value to dollar is off by a wide margin.
Like many during the Great Boom of 2020, I got caught up in hype and bought rookies of Acuna, Soto, Tatis and Bellinger while they were on the climb. Whereas normally I just buy HOF rookies. Today those four cards sell for around 125. I was well versed on pop reports, had an idea this would happen and shoulda sold at their peak but didn't. Between the four I was in for around 850. Could have probably sold em all at 1800. Instead, I'm out 700-750. The one thing I do have to remind myself through all this was that I was selling junk wax dollar rookie cards for 5-7 daily (Chipper Jones, Frank Thomas, etc) which is how I paid for these cards. There was entertainment value to it all, and I was basically trading. Would I have rather bought other cards instead now that I know their fate? Sure, but I can't complain too much. There are people out there that took complete beatings. All is fair in love and war.
I agree wholeheartedly. IMHO modern base is not worth it (graded or otherwise). Unless you're 1st to market w/ a 10, the value will plummet. And if the card has a high pop, I now just stay away. As a collector, for modern/ultra modern I am now waiting to get the PSA I want. A 10 now will probably cost 1/2 as much in a few years unless they're superstars like Jackson and Mahomes. Like you, I wish the hobby would learn.
You forgot to mention that’s it’s more expensive to ship a graded card than a raw card by anywhere from $3-6 more. So not only are they losing money paying for grading, but also in some cases covering the shipping costs.
I have a Wemby 10....base prizm. Pulled it, decided to grade it, it got a 10, I thought about selling it but I like the card so I kept it. Its in my PC and someday I might sell it, but for now its mine.
I just got into the hobby a yr or two ago. I have 1 graded card in my collection. I have pulled some very cool variations and colored cards but nothing super valuable. I had a promo code from PSA for 75.00 off an order which means I could get 3 cards done and just pay the 20.00 on shipping and I still STRUGGLED trying to pick which three cards I was going to get graded FOR FREE, because they aren't worth that much. So I just picked three that I plan to keep in my PC forever. I'm an Orioles fan so I sent the Jackson Holliday Topps now (grand slam), The Gunnar Henderson Heritage short print from 2024 and an Adley R. Topps 88 RC. I felt dumb getting these graded for the EXACT reasons Chris points out in the video but I just look at it as free encapsulation for my favorite cards.
I also regularly see commons from the 1970s on auction sites that are graded 3-4, who thought it was a good idea to send in a 1978 Mario Mendoza and get a PSA 4 at $20?
@@jamesadams8207 '78 Topps has the iconic Eddie Murray rookie card. One of my favorite rookie cards from the '70's decade. Though I am Orioles fan. I don't even know how the set registry works. Haven't used one. Is 158, a good number? I might need more collectors to build the '78 set. The Murray rookie card, is not expensive. At least in the condition I bought it in, though I shouldn't be complaining about that lol.
People gave PSA $5 million for them to say these 12 cards that were likely pulled from a pack a week after being printed, are indeed in gem mint condition. Crazy
Nice video Chris…great information. You created a disastrous picture for the collectors / investors / dealers that were fortunate enough to get a PSA 10 for these junk wax cards. What about the folks that weren’t as fortunate and have a collection full of Gavin Lux rookies in PSA 8 slabs?
I'm on the other end of this benefiting and happy to wait 3-5 years on these cards, let them all get slabbed up, drop to sub $20 then grabbing a great card of a really good player for my collection. I have my collection cards and my investment cards, but I don't have "prospecting" cards. Definitely not that early.
Here’s a question: What’s the pop count on PSA 9 slabs of these cards? There has to be a higher pop of those and they must be mostly underwater in relation to the cost of grading. Also! Many of these cards were graded when the cost of grading was way higher in wake of PSA shutdown!
Great point about the cost of grading being higher back then... I didnt even consider that! Most of these cards have a similar # of 9s as 10s, with very few copies less than a 9.
Not surprising. A lot of 'ultra' modern baseball and basketball cards. But appreciate the research department, and time you put into your videos. I would be interested or curious though about the SGC top 10 Pop-Count Cards, and what the differences might be from PSA. I wonder if it there would be any vintage cards in their top 10 all-time. Or maybe like junk-wax era/modern cards. Though this video does make me feel a little bit better buying PSA 9 instead of ''10's.'' I bought my Barry Sanders '89 Score for like $100 bucks or so. And that was maybe 2 years ago. Price hasn't really gone up, but hasn't gone down either. Anyway thanks, Chris!
Better off having it raw simply because it takes up less space than a 10. I still open a box of each Topps series for nostalgia. I know I am losing dollars but enjoy seeing and opening the cards. I have never sent in or sold any ultramodern card. Even when I get a hit I just keep it raw. I am a vintage baseball card collector and am perplexed by this. I am also sure most are perplexed why I throw a few hundred dollars at Topps flagship. To me I get that value of enjoyment out of still opening cards.
As you said, it makes sense to grade them early if people are going to pay big premiums, but a lot of people don't know when to quit. Anyone who submitted low-end base (hoops, donruss, etc) of Wemby and Stroud past September or October is in that bucket. But there are a lot more who haven't caught on that a $50-$100 bowman auto will have little profit in a 10 because, in that price range, the player's market often isn't very big. If more flippers analyzed margins based on sales and gem rates for each card, in both tcg and sports cards, psa turnaround times would be much shorter even with lower fees.
4:49 I would love to see how many were graded year over year to compare psa price in year 2018 it was still sub 10 dollars? then it was $50 in 2020 so the range would be very interesting. We forgot to mention that this doesn't even count cgc or sgc 🤯🤯
Happy to say I don’t have any of these cards. Ultramodern is in trouble. PSA holds too much financial power in this hobby. Still love collecting as I’m able to steer clear of both PSA and ultramodern overprinted junk. Early 2000s for the win.
Interesting to consider the “selling window” being about a month long, yet bulk submissions (which many of these base cards are a part of) have a multi-month turnaround time anyway. So by the time you get the card back, you’ve already missed the window.
During the 2020-2022 boom many of these cards were incredibly expensive. The Luka Prizm RC was over $1500 in a PSA 10 during the insanity. The Tatis, Acuna, and Soto were all $300 in a PSA 10. It once made sense and I'd wager most of these cards were sent in before 2023 aside from the Wemby.
As a Dodgers fan, I love Gavin Lux and wish him the best as he moves to Cincinnati--he's talented and hope he does great. But yeah that's hilarious. So true that it boils down to lack of education. Card "collecting" is rife with speculation. Paying way too much for boxes and packs that are almost guaranteed to be money losers (and cost more than ever), and submitting new cards in quantities that mean the 10s will do the same. For some time I've felt that people are not understanding the "supply" half of the "supply and demand" equation. This stuff is not rare! And heaven help the people who grade and then HOLD these cards hoping they'll appreciate in value. 😆
For most of these cards, if not all of them, it's cheaper to buy a PSA 10; Instead of sending one in hoping for a 10 grade. There is also a huge speculation aspect, which most people end up getting wrong. Best thing to do is keep your cards raw and in good condition, then get them graded once the player proves themselves after many seasons. Just think how many players had 1 or 2 really good seasons then turned into a turd.
You should make a video about hockey cards. Although the same thing occurs, for some reason it's not nearly as bad. McDavid has easily over 100,000 young guns printed, yet even his raw is going for over $1,000, same with Crosby and Ovechkin. Bedard has taken a hit since the hobby is starting to call him a bust, which he's not. Kind of an interesting phenomena.
A market cap of $100,000,000 on McDavid colored cardboad is unlikely in the first place (100,000 x $1000) but even if we pretend that's current reality there is 0 percent chance it's gonna hold up.
You kept mentioning collectors submissions. I believe it's the flippers submitting and if we just wait, it will be the collector who gets the 10 they want for cheap! 😊
This is the result of investors taking over the hobby. Put another way, it's the same lie everyone was telling back in the late '80's & early '90's how these cards were going to put your kids through college.
Great video as always . As I’m sure other people point out in the comments , these cards were all way higher at the time of submission. So going forward I guess the question which you sort of addressed , are people still submitting bullshit ? What are the pop counts on cards like 24 flagship Skenes , Dominguez , de la Cruz etc ?
It's the flipping mentality. Many get these cards early in release and send them in to make the early money. Just as you stated. But then everyone else thinks they can do the same as they see the inflated prices. In some cases, like Webanyama (sp?) he's a generational player, barring injury. While still speculation, if you look at his numbers..wow.
I have an issue with the term "Collector" when talking about this issue. I would guess that the vast majority of people grading these cards are doing so with the intent to sell them at a profit, otherwise why would the value be so low, there would be far fewer flooding the market? Collectors buy cards to enjoy and while some will sell I doubt they are the driving force behind the gradings. I blame the folks I see at all of the shows with their card briefcases looking to make deals.
im assuming this is only sports cards because i thought i saw somewhere that the charizard from champions path etbs was the card graded the most times by psa ever and most 10's ever
Honestly i feel like its more of a - Dealers rip tons of boxes early.. send them to get graded... list them high and they sell to the average collector because of FOMO fear of missing out... now everyone needs the new HOT card/player and the cycle continues until its no longer appealing/rare or valuable any further
It’s not the people submitting them at all it’s the people who buy them for high prices when they’re new. If people didn’t buy them at a price that makes sense to submit, then nobody would submit them
Everyone crack your Gavin’s and re-submit! Let’s take that #1 spot!
Sad to hear your part of the club 😬
The hobby is lucky to have someone like you educating people about the hobby.
The speculation bubble of the pandemic will take time to completely deflate. Still too many speculators trying to flip cards to "greater idiots".
@@oldhab7890 Never be shy at thanking Chris; he’s one of the good guys in the hobby who give collectors a fair shake. I plan to sell my collection which includes all 4 sports going back to the late 60’s.
I own close to 400 slabs and don't own a single one of these, feel good about my collection today. Thanks Chris! 👍😁👍
Love your insight! It cracked me up you saying “I mean I don’t want to hurt PSA or anything” 😂 I know you meant it sincerely but me and you both know PSA has been robbing people blind for years and years on the fees and on the under grading. I watch all your videos and trust you wayyyyy over any grader they have and if you think it’s a 7-8 and it comes back a 5…. Something isn’t right
Got back into the hobby in 23 did this exact same thing with the Adley card. Learned this lesson exactly as you described. I am way more selective with what goes to PSA/SGC now thanks for making this video for other collectors. Love your content
Awesome to hear that!
You just described the Junk Slab Era
I keep thinking the grading lunacy will slow down, but it seems that as long as people are willing to massively overpay for base 10’s at release, then it will keep happening indefinitely haha
1:55 surely but slowly Chris opens up his heart to us 1 little nugget at a time. We’re here for you if you need it brother ❤
The “What if - Amanda Glaser” reference is awesome. And shout out to holding on to the grudge with 1992 Gavin. People don’t forget. :)
Great video - I’m seeing the same poor choices with some people grading mid-low grade vintage.
A recent purchase of around 300 SGC vintage baseball cards in which the seller had spent $4,500+ in grading fees had a retail value around $4,000 because most of the low grade 70’s cards were worth $5-$10 each. I often share your videos dealing with grading when I see opportunities to save someone from making a blunder like that.
I've seen videos similar to that too. I've even tried to say "dip your toe in before diving into the deep end" in pre-graded vids. With how fast turnaround at SGC is, you can send off 5 or 7 cards, and get a feel for what the rest of your sub is and go from there. They don't listen. The reveal videos are hard to watch. A 1975 Don Sutton in a 3 just ain't worth it, Bubba. It may just be a PC card now, but for 15 bucks you could own a 7.
I've seen so many people going around social media saying "grade everything" and hunting for a 10 to justify the behavior. Price differences between 9 and 10 is the new way to throw away money like gambling. Your charts remind me of IPO stock charts where most have the same trajectory once hype dies off.
PSA on PSA. Supply on these cards eventually catches up with demand. The graphs really prove the point. Thanks Chris for sharing the data and educating the hobby.
If the 1980s was the junkwax era, then the 2020s is the junkplastic era.
They've already been calling it the "Junk-Slab Era"
Why haven’t I sent in any cards…ever?
This video explains the story.
I have +|- 1/2 million cards.
None sent off…
Raw😎
Love your channel and watch every episode you put out. I have a comment as an individual who sells at a local flea market booth. Since there is no local card shop in my town, I can buy say the CJ Stroud Mosaic PSA 10 you mentioned off Ebay tax free for $20.00 and put it in my booth and put a price tag of $35.00 on it and it will sell. I have learned over the past two years of doing this with hundreds of cards is that not everyone has knowledge of buying these cards online, like for example the grandmother who knows her grandson collects Patrick Mahomes, and during Christmas time sees it in the booth for $30 and buys it as a gift, even though she could do some research and purchase it off eBay for less. I have done quite well buying PSA slabs for $30 and under and selling them locally for a nice markup.
One of the issues is the high quality of the mass-produced cards coming out. Back in the 80s/90s there were a ton of cards, but they were inferior in quality and all paper. That is why we see a PSA 10 Nolan Ryan from 1986 Topps go for $2k. You could have 1000 of those cards and not one would get a PSA 10.
Great video, probably the best video that I have watched in the last month.
hype is a billion dollar industry
A lot of people that aren’t so good at math get a morale boost for their $1 base card coming back a PSA 10. They see it was a win and helps their ego that they have a good eye for geming cards. PSA has them right where they want them.
We need to also remember, a good chunk of these cards were sent in when the 10s were selling for hundreds of dollars. Its not like most people are sending them thinking they will sell for less than the grading fee.
All those cards you show on the clip I got. Lux is my favorite. He is a Wisconsin native.
Chris, thank you so much for showing us the advantages and disadvantages of grading and if and when we should grade! You have literally saved me hundreds of dollars that I would’ve otherwise spent!
don't forget to include the cost of pulling the card!!! how many boxes did one buy before they opened the pack that had the card...
Good point!
Thanks again for the awesome info. I have been very slow to send cards in for this reason. I guess I would say (and so does my wife) that I am just a collector. We might have to get a bigger house for my cards. Love it though. Thanks again.
If you are buying/slabbing to flip then losing $ is part of the endeavor a certain amount of the time... If you are buying/slabbing to create and store value you'll also succeed only occasionally... If you buy/slab what you want to collect you get the best return...
In general, you are right Chris. A lot of these cards have no business being submitted. I think the main reason people do, is most of these players were projected to be All-Star/HOF type potential so people get them graded right away so they have them at a cheap price point incase they do moon later.
If people dont think this is worse then the junk wax era, then they are badly mistaken. Whenever there is thousands of cards for one rookie player, we have a huge problem. This is why even great rookies/players isnt even worth much because there are soooo many cards of that player. Its not like back in the days where there are only 1 or 2 rookie cards per player. Also, the prices for packs and boxes has gotten wayyyy out of hand.
It’s absolutely not worse than the junk wax era.
^ something stupid people say.
So happy here on "Raw Island" collecting vintage and leaving the shiny new crap in overpriced plastic slabs for others
In this industry someone will always be left holding the bag on a card.
PSA is now a cult.
For youngsters that don't know anything about sports prior to 2019.
#TeamMagpro 😂
I only graded MJ and Kobe over the years and strangely tens are much harder to get on the best cards!
Funny how that works. They must be singled out and handled more aggressively at the factory
Yah I 100% agree with your points. I actually like Adley Rutschman to and maybe he still pans out later. No I dont have his PSA 10 base cards. Your vid also shows how tough it is to have a Hall of Fame type sports career and so many good prospects fall by the wayside. I mean Ron Acuna injuries and geez Wander Franco & the like. This is not Covid pricing anymore where PSA 10 base cards make you big returns either. Yep just making PSA well off. Prospecting is tough. Maybe its better to let the player prove themself over time if you have the time. In my opinion where the hobby is Base cards just do not cut it unfortunately. You have to go way back in time & high grade (both) & be a Hall of Fame player for base cards to be worth it.
I think another concerning number from the trickle down effect is the pop counts on 7s, 8s, and 9s. If you think about the amount of crack-outs to potentially get the next higher grade, you have to realize those pop counts are skewed high. Because, just because you crack out a 9 and get a 10, doesn’t mean the existence of that 9 doesn’t still exist in PSA’s numbers.
And I’ve noticed how hard it has become to find immaculate raw examples of cards, because if a dealer or LCS would’ve suspected a 10 they would’ve sent it in already. So, in my opinion, you need to be vigilant when negotiating for raw cards. I wouldn’t pay close to comps for a raw card at this point.
This should be required viewing for all. People just don't learn. Just look how many cards are graded per month.
Just one word.
Yes, sir.
Are you listening?
Yes, I am.
Plastics.
Chris;
You make a great point near the end of the video; all those collectors dollars that are wasted grading cards are not being used or reinvested back into the hobby that PSA receives.And if you think The Big Wigs at PSA are spending their money on sportscards, I have a Gavin Lutz card worth big money!!
Great video and much needed! I don't send a card for grading unless the value for my low estimated grade is at least $50. People seem to be sending in way too many rookie prospects, that's a losing bet every time.
I think that's baseball prospecting 101 which has been done for probably 30 plus years. I think the another part of this is that grading is way more expensive then it ever was so value to dollar is off by a wide margin.
Like many during the Great Boom of 2020, I got caught up in hype and bought rookies of Acuna, Soto, Tatis and Bellinger while they were on the climb. Whereas normally I just buy HOF rookies. Today those four cards sell for around 125. I was well versed on pop reports, had an idea this would happen and shoulda sold at their peak but didn't. Between the four I was in for around 850. Could have probably sold em all at 1800. Instead, I'm out 700-750.
The one thing I do have to remind myself through all this was that I was selling junk wax dollar rookie cards for 5-7 daily (Chipper Jones, Frank Thomas, etc) which is how I paid for these cards. There was entertainment value to it all, and I was basically trading. Would I have rather bought other cards instead now that I know their fate? Sure, but I can't complain too much. There are people out there that took complete beatings. All is fair in love and war.
I agree wholeheartedly. IMHO modern base is not worth it (graded or otherwise). Unless you're 1st to market w/ a 10, the value will plummet. And if the card has a high pop, I now just stay away. As a collector, for modern/ultra modern I am now waiting to get the PSA I want. A 10 now will probably cost 1/2 as much in a few years unless they're superstars like Jackson and Mahomes. Like you, I wish the hobby would learn.
You forgot to mention that’s it’s more expensive to ship a graded card than a raw card by anywhere from $3-6 more.
So not only are they losing money paying for grading, but also in some cases covering the shipping costs.
I have a Wemby 10....base prizm. Pulled it, decided to grade it, it got a 10, I thought about selling it but I like the card so I kept it. Its in my PC and someday I might sell it, but for now its mine.
Love it
bag holder
Let’s not forget that grading was much more than $20 during the peak bubble period when many of these were graded.
6:43 I thought you called him a, "Buster"... like Dom in Fast and Furious style...I laughed so hard...
I just got into the hobby a yr or two ago. I have 1 graded card in my collection. I have pulled some very cool variations and colored cards but nothing super valuable. I had a promo code from PSA for 75.00 off an order which means I could get 3 cards done and just pay the 20.00 on shipping and I still STRUGGLED trying to pick which three cards I was going to get graded FOR FREE, because they aren't worth that much. So I just picked three that I plan to keep in my PC forever. I'm an Orioles fan so I sent the Jackson Holliday Topps now (grand slam), The Gunnar Henderson Heritage short print from 2024 and an Adley R. Topps 88 RC. I felt dumb getting these graded for the EXACT reasons Chris points out in the video but I just look at it as free encapsulation for my favorite cards.
Nothing wrong with that!
I also regularly see commons from the 1970s on auction sites that are graded 3-4, who thought it was a good idea to send in a 1978 Mario Mendoza and get a PSA 4 at $20?
So true!
At least set registry 1978 set collectors might want that… 😂 🤷♂️. All 4 of them out there… 😂 Then again, they might hold out for a 7.
@@HighPopProfessor There are 158 people collecting the 1978 set on the registry.
@@jamesadams8207 '78 Topps has the iconic Eddie Murray rookie card. One of my favorite rookie cards from the '70's decade. Though I am Orioles fan. I don't even know how the set registry works. Haven't used one. Is 158, a good number? I might need more collectors to build the '78 set. The Murray rookie card, is not expensive. At least in the condition I bought it in, though I shouldn't be complaining about that lol.
People gave PSA $5 million for them to say these 12 cards that were likely pulled from a pack a week after being printed, are indeed in gem mint condition. Crazy
Rare does not mean something is valuable and valuable does not mean something is rare. Collecting what you like for me is vintage raw.
Love the channel, keep it up! The Gavin story made crack up! 😆
Nice video Chris…great information. You created a disastrous picture for the collectors / investors / dealers that were fortunate enough to get a PSA 10 for these junk wax cards. What about the folks that weren’t as fortunate and have a collection full of Gavin Lux rookies in PSA 8 slabs?
Great point!
This is a great video...thanks for the information! I think you and I met in San Jose during the 90's?
I'm on the other end of this benefiting and happy to wait 3-5 years on these cards, let them all get slabbed up, drop to sub $20 then grabbing a great card of a really good player for my collection. I have my collection cards and my investment cards, but I don't have "prospecting" cards. Definitely not that early.
Here’s a question: What’s the pop count on PSA 9 slabs of these cards? There has to be a higher pop of those and they must be mostly underwater in relation to the cost of grading. Also! Many of these cards were graded when the cost of grading was way higher in wake of PSA shutdown!
Great point about the cost of grading being higher back then... I didnt even consider that! Most of these cards have a similar # of 9s as 10s, with very few copies less than a 9.
Not surprising. A lot of 'ultra' modern baseball and basketball cards. But appreciate the research department, and time you put into your videos. I would be interested or curious though about the SGC top 10 Pop-Count Cards, and what the differences might be from PSA. I wonder if it there would be any vintage cards in their top 10 all-time. Or maybe like junk-wax era/modern cards.
Though this video does make me feel a little bit better buying PSA 9 instead of ''10's.'' I bought my Barry Sanders '89 Score for like $100 bucks or so. And that was maybe 2 years ago. Price hasn't really gone up, but hasn't gone down either. Anyway thanks, Chris!
The upside to this list/situation is that there are much lower Pop counts for much more valuable cards that receive a “Gem Mt 10” grade 💰
It isn't just the grading cards. It is buying ultra modern in general. It does not make financial sense.
Work it out, Chris. PSA 10 Gavin Lux going for less than lunch money these days (Great research and video dude)
Better off having it raw simply because it takes up less space than a 10. I still open a box of each Topps series for nostalgia. I know I am losing dollars but enjoy seeing and opening the cards. I have never sent in or sold any ultramodern card. Even when I get a hit I just keep it raw. I am a vintage baseball card collector and am perplexed by this. I am also sure most are perplexed why I throw a few hundred dollars at Topps flagship. To me I get that value of enjoyment out of still opening cards.
Love this take!
Wouldn't you say you then are not losing money cause you are opening for enjoyment not profit? I understand the hope for hitting a mega card.
Great video as always EL CID. Be careful though. You keep putting out knowledgeable vids like this and PSA might put a contract out on you.
A video about the earliest PSA 10s would be cool. Like, are there any PSA 10 cards from the early 1900s. If so, how does that happen?
We are going to need a transparent breakdown on the lunch money incident.
That will be a future video for sure
It's a good thing that the guy who took your lunch money and made you cry in front of Amanda wasn't named Cal!
Just these 12 cards have been graded over 240,000 times. At $20 each that’s $4.8m in PSA’s pocket.
Wow!
As you said, it makes sense to grade them early if people are going to pay big premiums, but a lot of people don't know when to quit. Anyone who submitted low-end base (hoops, donruss, etc) of Wemby and Stroud past September or October is in that bucket. But there are a lot more who haven't caught on that a $50-$100 bowman auto will have little profit in a 10 because, in that price range, the player's market often isn't very big. If more flippers analyzed margins based on sales and gem rates for each card, in both tcg and sports cards, psa turnaround times would be much shorter even with lower fees.
Very well said
4:49 I would love to see how many were graded year over year to compare psa price in year 2018 it was still sub 10 dollars? then it was $50 in 2020 so the range would be very interesting.
We forgot to mention that this doesn't even count cgc or sgc 🤯🤯
Happy to say I don’t have any of these cards. Ultramodern is in trouble. PSA holds too much financial power in this hobby. Still love collecting as I’m able to steer clear of both PSA and ultramodern overprinted junk. Early 2000s for the win.
Just wait to see how high the Alonso goes when, instead of playing baseball, he's on "Dancing With the Stars" next season!
Imagine paying upcharges every time you get PSA 10 Wemby RC 💸💸💸
Interesting to consider the “selling window” being about a month long, yet bulk submissions (which many of these base cards are a part of) have a multi-month turnaround time anyway. So by the time you get the card back, you’ve already missed the window.
Very true
During the 2020-2022 boom many of these cards were incredibly expensive. The Luka Prizm RC was over $1500 in a PSA 10 during the insanity. The Tatis, Acuna, and Soto were all $300 in a PSA 10. It once made sense and I'd wager most of these cards were sent in before 2023 aside from the Wemby.
As a Dodgers fan, I love Gavin Lux and wish him the best as he moves to Cincinnati--he's talented and hope he does great. But yeah that's hilarious. So true that it boils down to lack of education. Card "collecting" is rife with speculation. Paying way too much for boxes and packs that are almost guaranteed to be money losers (and cost more than ever), and submitting new cards in quantities that mean the 10s will do the same. For some time I've felt that people are not understanding the "supply" half of the "supply and demand" equation. This stuff is not rare! And heaven help the people who grade and then HOLD these cards hoping they'll appreciate in value. 😆
The current value of wemby and Doncic base psa 10 still make it worth taking the risk and grading if you sell right away
Think of all the Gavin Lux PSA 9s out there. 😂
I just checked out of curiosity, 5,637. Very surprising tbh.
For most of these cards, if not all of them, it's cheaper to buy a PSA 10; Instead of sending one in hoping for a 10 grade. There is also a huge speculation aspect, which most people end up getting wrong. Best thing to do is keep your cards raw and in good condition, then get them graded once the player proves themselves after many seasons. Just think how many players had 1 or 2 really good seasons then turned into a turd.
"Eat your vegetables." Love it man 😂
Well said! Thanks Chris
It would only make sense, if it’s for a PC and perhaps to sell years down the road.
Given how huge Ohtani has become it's obvious to me that they made far far less cards in 2018
You should make a video about hockey cards. Although the same thing occurs, for some reason it's not nearly as bad. McDavid has easily over 100,000 young guns printed, yet even his raw is going for over $1,000, same with Crosby and Ovechkin. Bedard has taken a hit since the hobby is starting to call him a bust, which he's not. Kind of an interesting phenomena.
He's just not the "Hockey DARLING" anymore for sure. But same goes for McDavid and Ovechkin
A market cap of $100,000,000 on McDavid colored cardboad is unlikely in the first place (100,000 x $1000) but even if we pretend that's current reality there is 0 percent chance it's gonna hold up.
I bought a Tatis rookie PSA 10 for about $200 at the height of the pandemic and card boom. Not my best purchase.
You kept mentioning collectors submissions. I believe it's the flippers submitting and if we just wait, it will be the collector who gets the 10 they want for cheap!
😊
So what your saying is that modern card collectors aren't that smart. I agree. 😅
This is the result of investors taking over the hobby. Put another way, it's the same lie everyone was telling back in the late '80's & early '90's how these cards were going to put your kids through college.
I believe, most of these are people who planned on flipping the card. I think the blame should fall on the card manufacturers for over printing.
Great video as always . As I’m sure other people point out in the comments , these cards were all way higher at the time of submission. So going forward I guess the question which you sort of addressed , are people still submitting bullshit ? What are the pop counts on cards like 24 flagship Skenes , Dominguez , de la Cruz etc ?
Great question. Its not as extreme as it was in 2020-2022 but people are still submitting at way-too-high rates
Personally I am only grading for my PC or if it's vintage/authentication purposes
It's the flipping mentality. Many get these cards early in release and send them in to make the early money. Just as you stated. But then everyone else thinks they can do the same as they see the inflated prices. In some cases, like Webanyama (sp?) he's a generational player, barring injury. While still speculation, if you look at his numbers..wow.
I'm shocked... SHOCKED I SAY... ok not really... im good with it, I love the martian
How does Shohei not appear on this list?
Gavin Lux had a hot rookie year and was crucial to the Dodgers Pandemic World Series win
I don’t even want to think of all the 9s and 8s
PSA went from buying lotto tickets to cashing tickets. It's just sad that kids can't participate on a lower level $, like before Covid.😢
I have an issue with the term "Collector" when talking about this issue. I would guess that the vast majority of people grading these cards are doing so with the intent to sell them at a profit, otherwise why would the value be so low, there would be far fewer flooding the market? Collectors buy cards to enjoy and while some will sell I doubt they are the driving force behind the gradings. I blame the folks I see at all of the shows with their card briefcases looking to make deals.
im assuming this is only sports cards because i thought i saw somewhere that the charizard from champions path etbs was the card graded the most times by psa ever and most 10's ever
Correct, I was only looking at sports cards
Vintage is more stable in my opinion. I like a mid grade find pulled from an old shoe box way more than a perfect new card.
Honestly i feel like its more of a - Dealers rip tons of boxes early.. send them to get graded... list them high and they sell to the average collector because of FOMO fear of missing out... now everyone needs the new HOT card/player and the cycle continues until its no longer appealing/rare or valuable any further
Thats definitely a significant part of it
It’s new collectors not knowing the game. Everybody makes this mistake when starting or coming back to the hobby.
3:02 at their height all these cards were selling for 10 times their current market value
As Chris said, buy early, grade early, sell ASAP--emphasis on that last part!
I got a card graded a psa10 that has only 1 other 10
Where is 2018 Topps Update Ohtani?
Its high on the list, just didnt crack the top 12
It’s not the people submitting them at all it’s the people who buy them for high prices when they’re new. If people didn’t buy them at a price that makes sense to submit, then nobody would submit them
Very good point
my boy mister pete alonso is on all the top 10 lists