Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Perth in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
This is a great summary, a lot of investors sold out in Perth from 2015-19, prematurely it night seem. Perth's future looks bright, WA has the highest mean salaries in Australia yet is still one of the cheapest capital cities. Coupled with a strong local economy and net migration, this growth cycle still has a long way to run. Eventually Perth will catch up to the eastern state markets.
Great video what would be good is the see the wages verses property prices I brought my first house in 1999 for $125,000 and now my property is worth more than 6 times that but my salary is only 2.5 times that , can people afford to buy houses if we are only a third of the way through a housing cycle ?
@@heykevwhatyouup2 Thanks for the comment. Interest rate on the price is ultimately the cost to the end buyer with a mortgage and then based on their income is probably the litmus test. The difference these days is we've been in a low interest rate environment so as int rates have increased it's all more stress. Most of my years growing up was rates coming down so always felt like an improvement.
We are so heavily reliant in the mining sector here in WA. The mining sector is so heavily reliant on world economies. With the way politcal alliances are currently being formed, our economy might be affected by political moves which are out of our control. The housing market might be the least of our concerns.
Fundamentals? 30 year and more of Quantitative Easing and zero interest rates!! Is this enough for you? Ohh I forgot corrupt government policy scam and negative gearing and all and more than what I can even thinking! Sorry this to me is not and never will a Market, not even a boom and dust cycle but ONLY A BIG HUGE PONZI SCHEME. SO PLEASE GO Back home and look for a good activity to occupy your free time, so I suggest Simon gardening and walking in the open air that will help him his old brain so much😊
I can't see this growth lasting, because against income it would simply mean the city fails, when nurses cannot afford to live in it to staff the hospitals. There is a point where the house of cards falls, and I suspect we are about to hit that.
fun fact, my 1970 $30,000 3x1 timber house in Melb just sold for $860,000 near on 29x original value. The new owners will have to restump it and 100% strip out the plumbing and wiring, a quote of at least $70,000 The last annual rental income was $30,000 a year, do the math, housing is going one way only, never south over a life time.
The currencies around the world are being debased at an average of 15% a year. In nominal terms housing should continue to grow with the debasement everywhere. Until it doesn't, Governments said we needed inflation, they certainly gave it to us.
I dont think its as simple as the cycles in your video. What happens if Fe price crashes and rates are raised? I dont think the current prices are sustainable.
Watch the recession and depression take dosn the property prices. There is no way Australia or Perth can dodge the reduced global demand on mining resources. Every economy is retracting or already in a recession. The prices are going to flatten out and the drop.
I think the property market will crash no one can afford to buy it will become stagnant ,young people can’t afford to buy houses so they will stop having kids for this reason even though you bring in immigrants there’s no houses for them and they probably can’t afford houses either our kids are back at home as they can’t afford a place wages can’t keep up
I just made about $ 30000 in the last month. This is bloody stupid what chance have the young got. For Perth I have a feeling there will be a drop. Reason.... look at Metronet and go down the rabbit hole , Warwick Quarter development a high density high rise in a nice suburb. There are others planned with a relationship with the rail . I'm sure this will pull things down.
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Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Perth in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
This is a great summary, a lot of investors sold out in Perth from 2015-19, prematurely it night seem. Perth's future looks bright, WA has the highest mean salaries in Australia yet is still one of the cheapest capital cities. Coupled with a strong local economy and net migration, this growth cycle still has a long way to run. Eventually Perth will catch up to the eastern state markets.
Good analysis I agree with you.
Great video what would be good is the see the wages verses property prices I brought my first house in 1999 for $125,000 and now my property is worth more than 6 times that but my salary is only 2.5 times that , can people afford to buy houses if we are only a third of the way through a housing cycle ?
@@heykevwhatyouup2 Thanks for the comment. Interest rate on the price is ultimately the cost to the end buyer with a mortgage and then based on their income is probably the litmus test.
The difference these days is we've been in a low interest rate environment so as int rates have increased it's all more stress. Most of my years growing up was rates coming down so always felt like an improvement.
should show more than the last 20 years to give your proposed hypothesis/theory any strength
Great video
Good info. Thank you
@@erictheviking9917 pleasure 😊👍
can be you please explain how are your kids or grand kids will afford houses?
In consolidation periods where property goes sideways, wages will catch up and new people will enter the market.
"Quick buy now prices are going up don't miss out......" Prices start coming down "Quick buy now excellent value...."
We are so heavily reliant in the mining sector here in WA. The mining sector is so heavily reliant on world economies. With the way politcal alliances are currently being formed, our economy might be affected by political moves which are out of our control. The housing market might be the least of our concerns.
Fundamentals? 30 year and more of Quantitative Easing and zero interest rates!! Is this enough for you? Ohh I forgot corrupt government policy scam and negative gearing and all and more than what I can even thinking! Sorry this to me is not and never will a Market, not even a boom and dust cycle but ONLY A BIG HUGE PONZI SCHEME. SO PLEASE GO Back home and look for a good activity to occupy your free time, so I suggest Simon gardening and walking in the open air that will help him his old brain so much😊
I can't see this growth lasting, because against income it would simply mean the city fails, when nurses cannot afford to live in it to staff the hospitals. There is a point where the house of cards falls, and I suspect we are about to hit that.
Is it really growth or is it just all inflation?
2-3% of growth per month is much more than inflation
I feel like it's inflation due do all the covid quantitative easing...
Hey mate isn't median 800 k. Will we meet oxford estimate at 1 mil. Will Perth trend the ,18.6 year cycle
@@d.j.z.j That was Corelogic July 1. In my opinion .. yes! and more
fun fact, my 1970 $30,000 3x1 timber house in Melb just sold for $860,000
near on 29x original value. The new owners will have to restump it and 100% strip out the plumbing and wiring, a quote of at least $70,000
The last annual rental income was $30,000 a year, do the math, housing is going one way only, never south over a life time.
Need to pull the horse up on immigration/overseas investors imo.
The currencies around the world are being debased at an average of 15% a year. In nominal terms housing should continue to grow with the debasement everywhere. Until it doesn't, Governments said we needed inflation, they certainly gave it to us.
I dont think its as simple as the cycles in your video.
What happens if Fe price crashes and rates are raised? I dont think the current prices are sustainable.
Suspect you might be right…hope so! Don’t see it slowing down here soon
Watch the recession and depression take dosn the property prices. There is no way Australia or Perth can dodge the reduced global demand on mining resources.
Every economy is retracting or already in a recession.
The prices are going to flatten out and the drop.
Informative to me.
I think the property market will crash no one can afford to buy it will become stagnant ,young people can’t afford to buy houses so they will stop having kids for this reason even though you bring in immigrants there’s no houses for them and they probably can’t afford houses either our kids are back at home as they can’t afford a place wages can’t keep up
Must be a real estate agent 😂
@@carllyons4903 How'd you figure that out!? 🤔 You must have read my profile 🙄
The housing market will come to crash soon can expect it will stay as is.
The people who say this are usually renting and hoping for a crash, it comes up every cycle
You might die waiting
I just made about $ 30000 in the last month. This is bloody stupid what chance have the young got.
For Perth I have a feeling there will be a drop. Reason.... look at Metronet and go down the rabbit hole , Warwick Quarter development a high density high rise in a nice suburb. There are others planned with a relationship with the rail . I'm sure this will pull things down.
PERTH IS SO ISOLATED AND BORING...I PREFER TO BE IN SYDNEY OR TEXAS DALLAS...AUSTRALIA IS BECOMING SO EXPENSIVE.
Dallas is also getting expensive…Perth relatively cheap still for Australia and lots of drivers as outlined in this video
ARE YOU TEXAN? IS THAT WHY YOU ARE YELLING