John Curtice on Nigel Farage: Labour are 99% chance of being next government
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- Опубликовано: 27 мар 2024
- Labour has 99% chance of forming next government, says elections expert Prof John Curtice
Curtice told Sam Blewett from Politico that there is now a “99% chance of Labour forming the next administration”. He said the chances of a Tory revival were small and that, even in the event of a hung parliament, Keir Starmer was better placed to become PM than Rishi Sunak.
“The Labour party will be in a much stronger position to negotiate a minority government than the Conservatives because, apart from possibly the DUP, the Conservatives have no friends in the House of Commons,” Curtice said
Last time labour were in power the NHS worked better, you could get a drs appointment, a dentist appointment, councils were not going bankrupt, zero hours contracts were not heard of, food banks were not heard of, warm banks were not heard of, rivers and seas were cleaner, sure start was doing great work, every child was given £250 at birth to save. Life wasn't perfect and labour were nowhere near perfect but they were a damn site better than this lot in power
Blair
the working worshiped bojo to them his shit tasted like Cadbury's chocolate
Illegal war
@@DrMontague I still find it hard to believe anyone fell for him
They were also running up national debt to do so, while also charging working people a lot more than billion pound making equity firms.
Even Labour accepted had they won the 2010 election, there were difficult decisions to be made, including a cut to all areas of public spending to accommodate the challenged economy and the cracking debt rate - we only started to flatline the rising debt in 2017 (ish).
The alternative to the approach taken post 2010 was to keep on spending as we were - which by now mean our debt would be beyond the 100% line -
Even an income Labour government, will not be able to fix this mess - its based on around 25 years of poor short term decisions, rather than actually investing long term.
I like John Curtice he is honest and very competent
Worse than this is going on all over the country every minute of every day
Derekwhite2929. Agree with you.?
Love sir John. Not spinning it. Sticking to the data.
He's very good, knows his stuff.
So as well as being in the 1% of top earners Sunak now has 1% chance of winning the next election! I always thought of him more as a number two.
Deputy or poop?
Very clever 😂
1% of top earners pay 30% of all income tax.
Brilliant! One million dollars 💵
@@riccagiaco eh?
Farage: "just goes to show, dont believe every headline you read" 😂😂
Is that why he's like this? 😂
you stupid boy niggle is on the side of the rich, not a low life working class tosser like you!
Especially the headlines from Farage
Let’s hope that the Tories are out no matter what…………
all you will get is new wine in old bottles!
@@DrMontagueI’ll take the new wine anyday over the 12 year old vintage……….
@@silverlakeas I made an error, it should be 'all you will get is old wine in new bottles'
that is An existing concept or institution offered as though it were a new one.
If you were to vote labour you are really getting the tories, the old wine in new bottles!
@@DrMontague so is Reform the answer. I don't think so. I don't trust them either. Being in opposition is so much easier than being in Government. To be honest I don't know where the Great Statesman are anymore. I was not a fan of Thatcher but my goodness she was a leader. He's hated but so was Blair. Same with Obama. I just don't see anyone with Gravitas anymore, just career politicians. I see more substance with the backbenchers. Bridgen, Galloway, whether you agree/ disagree we with them there appears to be a brain at work.
@@DrMontague The only way to get this government out of power, is to vote Labour. Anything else is a total waste of a vote and the Tories will end up back in. The Country is in worse a state now than I've ever really known it to be in too many areas to list. Nobody can do a worse job. 100% I'll be voting Labour.
Sir John nails it! He is a legend, always worth listening to.
The smashing of the Tories in the upcoming local elections and general election is the only thing I feel good about in relation to UK politics at this point.
It's perhaps a bit sad to only have a negative to look forward to but that's the reality of it for me.
And what exactly is going to change if the labour (woke party) form the next government? What is it that makes you feel good, can you explain other than pure hatred towards the ‘tories’ as I say What is Going to change for the better? indeed it’s going to be a hole lot worse than you can imagine, for instance you will pay a huge amount more money to turn on the central heating when your allowed to, also an end to free speech just like in Scotland, O not forgetting no more cars other than ‘electric rechargeable battery) vehicles of which we can’t afford to buy, or indeed run (new battery after 5 years costing half as much as the car itself) I’m waiting for the ‘good things’ you predict!.
Many will enjoy this. I think you tories will be in the wilderness for at least 2 parliaments
The tories have jailed a man for two years for posting stickers!
The Judiciary have.
Kinghenry100 absolutely disgusting. Those that commit serious crimes go free. What on earth has happend to our once proud Country? We are a laughing stock of the world.
@@thorpsewinglessons5913 go on then give me an example of someone who has committed a serious crime and has been let go free
PPE scandals
@@noelfleming3567 wrong, maybe. Illegal, though?
Sir John king of the polls.
Good in some like it hot
jesus wept was it 2021 when the hideous Jill Mortimer won Hartlepool. God help us.
Do you think he cares as long as he keeps getting paid for preaching our foreign adversaries agenda, he in limbo at present waiting for nest big one to sell Britain down the river again!
Fixed elections are not a win.
I don't want to see either win.
Dr Spooglemom, Neither do I. We women and young girls would be in more danger. As labour doesn't know what a woman is. Also other serious matters which neither of the parties do is protect our Countries heritage, values, Christian beliefs, freedom etc. Both parties if anyone else has noticed, they dislike our Country and our born and bred English citizens. Enoch Powell's speech was correct. We need an English Party for us the United Kingdom. We have been abused by these immigrants,for showing kindness, now they think we are weak. They really do not know us English citizens. 23rd April 2024 Our Celebrations of St George's Day, our flags of England ( who we are) on our buildings, houses ,shops, schools, gardens etc . This is our Country.The Governments need to join in or be watching and receiving the message,England is ours only.🕊️✝️✝️✝️🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
tough titty
Nice speech for a fascist party oops Reform party, oops failed project of the Tory party. 😅
Cehunt@@denisebrown4735
Labour haven't been in power for too long for that to be a fair view...and one of them will win. So if you intend to vote...best to pick what you feel to be the lesser of the two evils.
The dangers of the two party choices.
Sorry John, you are amazing but not amazing enough for me to be able to listen to Farage for more than a nanosecond
I think we can assume farage and his bnp friends will not win anything
I agree providing not to many working/blu coller working class don't vote Reform and allow a coalition government to form ..... we need a consolidated Labour Vote to send a clear message "Torys R.I.P." ...
Why, it almost looks like the penny has finally dropped for Kermit that the country is fed up with the tories & the far right.
Tories are center-left.
Far right really, have you taken your meds today!.
@@MrNPCyes far right but I guessing not far right enough for you!
@@MrNPC Of course they are.
@@astragreen Of course Kermit is far right, as are the Reform Party UK Limited Company. It's not my fault if you're too stupid to see what's going on.
To hell with the Tories they've had their chance.. but I think the country deserve better than bloody Labour.
Without a doubt, Labour will take us back status quo. ? No change!
Take no comfort from the Deform party, the Green slimes (tories on bikes) or the Lib Dims... Labour is the only party that can form a government.
The people will decide that! Looks like the people are going to disagree with you. Labour landslide on the cards.
And far better than bloody divisive hate and anger Reform.
So vote Reform then.
Curtice's forecast: music to all our ears, but not quite as bad as tories should get it.
Refreshingly factual sequence for GBN. All down to Sir John Curtice, of course.
I predict 100% no chance Farage will ever amount to anything worthwhile
I think he's done alright
That's his plan😂😂
It was Farage with UKIP 2015 which forced Cameron into giving Britain an EU Ref. It was Farage that led the campaign which won the EU referendum, it was Farage that set up the Brexit Party 2019 destroying all comers at the EU elections which forced the Tories to dump remoaner May & it was Farage that helped fake leaver Boris to an 80 seat majority 2019 by standing down Brexit Party candidates in Tory strong areas. I would say hes been more influential than most of the MPs sitting in Westminster.
Ponsi scheme. He's the main shareholder in ReformUK Ltd. All the candidates are paying him. He doesn't have to win anything, just fool people he can. Kerching.
Except for brexit 👏🍺cheers nigel
Fartage telling people not to believe everything they read! 😮
Are you implying Farage or the Leave Campaign has told a lie? Can you cite one statement verbatim and demonstrate it to be a lie? A 'lie' being a _knowingly false statemen made to deceive others._
That the best you got 😂😂😂 no valid reason your just hot air and sawdust for brains 😢 why you bothered look fick 😂
oh diddums . another disgruntled REMOANER still throwing kiddie strops because they were told 'NO' YEARS AGO 👎🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Great news.
yea right if you say so
I am sure this was on last night? Anyway will the Conservatives end up like the 1920s Liberal party ?
just seen a recent John Curtice interview in which he states another brexit referendum on the way which he expects to be before 2040 - after which we'll be back in. Nigel Farage will be 76 by then, so decent chance of being alive still. Can't wait for that day. Want a zoom close-up on that face when results roll in. I reckon near 70% to rejoin. A clear majority - not the paper thin one of 2016. Won't make up for 2016 - but will be a sweet thing to witness.
Stay healthy Nigel ;o)
why is the sound on this so bad? did you just film your screen?
And not once was Reform mentioned. Well done Farage
No need to mention Reform not important in the swing of things or big picture
Farage the twister, what a shameful little man
What did he twist?
@@danielskelton6699 farage is a populist idiot , hew let Bullingdon win in 2019 , hey the red wall will return to Labour and the lib dems will give the spivs a hard time down south , this will be 1945 again
God forbid
Audio sounds about the quality i expected for GBeebies 😂
Reform are stonger than you think,Nigel.
No there not
Er no
Everyone vote for their Reform Party candidate then the house of commons will be full of MPs with common sense and patriotic thoughts!!!
@@walterdixon7753 oh dear
changing your leader will not help a stupid tired old party
apathy will mean older members of the electorate could decide the result ...
it son't mean a rthing if it aint got that swing
HOWARD COX FOR LONDON MAYOR VOTE REFORM
Curtice got the Rochdale result totally wrong. He said the ' disavowed ' Labour candidate would win. He came fourth.
The Tories have lost their way but Labour is far worse. Terrible situation….
The whole thing stinks to high heaven.
Get kahn out on May 2nd PLEASE!!!!!!
I do want United Kingdom to succeed no matter what, however 14 years of conservative and another almost same time from labour before I don't believe for a bit back to Labour is the solution...if I could I would have a new party SPECIAL PARTY " for " UNITED KINGDOM were it single MP and councillors on next general election would be people that never be in politics
Dam, that audio is horrid
the idea that farage could outsmart curtice lolz
Oh god I hope not !!!!!!!
the magic roundabout ...... again ....
come on
We are doomed.
Yes humanity is doomed, that's correct.
We were there years ago under this government.
5:25 I'm sorry I missed that. Must have been the grooviest party in town.
Nigel Farage I will respect Reform and you if you target Labour seats as much as you do Conservative seats.
They’re targeting all of them i believe…or are trying to.
Respect the failed project of the Tory party? 😅😅😅
Fagend Fraudage is a treasonous asshole... still questions about how much he took from Russians... He is like an empty vessel...an echo chamber much noise little substance
and I cant believe I have sat through a video with that ghoul Farage in it. He should be in prison.
For what ??? Evidence it you have a hole video of Evidence 😂😂 you was forced to watch not capable of switching off lefty looney that's why cause you have no free will of choice so he must go 😉 cause you are to affected emotionally to function 😉 😂😂😂😂😂 victim Hood 😉 wokerarty
For what?
Ah,the lefty screaming to jail anyone who disagrees with them.
Pathetic.
Why ? Because you lost the brexit vote, sado whining remoaner rejoiner.
Shola is the adult in the room.
Im voting reform
can we have some real journalism please
Nooooooooo
Pipedream
And you think you've got problems now!
It’s not rocket science
Who says people are going to turn out and vote for either liebour or consocialists?
Lol i really dont think so....
End the union
Perhaps - but will Labour have an overall majority - that matter hugely!
As I tory voter if they win I hope so , imagine Sir Max Headroom, Mr Ed and the SNP in government 😱
I agree that it would be amazing if the SNP held the balance of power. Give little England their independence.😅
Voting for Reform UK is the only way to protect our people and country!! Everyone I know are voting Reform UK too!! 😊
Small friendship circle?😅
But what does Labour stand for? other than slagging off the Cons?
Why do I know Labour backs a Real Living Wage, taxing private schools to invest in state schools & planning laws reform to build affordable housing faster but you don't?
how does holding them to account equate to slagging them off?
Labour stands for illegal wars
How long have you got?!
All Tory must now vote for Reform its that simple Labour must not be allowed to run our nation.
If that happens, Labour areca shoe in. Happy Days.
Why would you vote for Reform Ltd when you have no say in their policies?
Yes please more Labour MP’s.
It's obvious that Labour are getting in but don't be surprised if Farage ends up becoming the next Thatcher
As much as I admire Farage as an activist & as a cultural hero
I do worry in power he'd be quite oppressive (not Hitler or whatever stupid, inappropriate name his enemies give him) but that he'd discriminate against disabled people & those on employment support allowance
Remember Thatcher stole many struggling kids breakfast when she was in Edens government & destroyed miners lives based on some crazy conspiracy they were plotting with the Russians to take over Britain
Yet like Farage she's a political rockstar but as a prime minister she wasn't all she was cracked up to be
And this is coming from someone who is supporting Reform UK in next election & is 100% Pro-Brexit
I'M VOTING REFORM NO MATTER WHAT AND SO ARE MILLIONS OF OTHERS.... TORIES AND LABOUR ARE FINISHED
Totally agree!!!
😂😂😂😂😂😂
I think millions will vote reform, people will take notice but almost certainly a Labour govt next
Millions of others just won't wash it though. 😅 Not in a FPTP system. I Vote for a party that would change that not the failed project of the Tory party.
52>48
Unfortunately, sufficient time has passed for a significant number of people to forget just how shit a labour government can be.
Things were nowhere near as bad under Labour as they are now . Try looking beyond The Mail for news and you'll see.
NHS public satisfaction level was 70% when the Labour party handed over the government to the Tories in 2010. After 14 years of Tory administration, it's down to 24%. The downfall is evident in every aspect of the country - not only NHS. I would happily go back to 2010 when this country was a much better place to live...
You’re clearly enjoying life under a corrupt, self-serving, incompetent shower of amateur politicians, who have made the UK a laughing stock worldwide. The sooner they are shunted off to oblivion, the better, you muppet
Ridiculous comment and not close to the truth re Labour.
John Curtis looks smug🤔
Change of government is exciting for him, he's well into this stuff
@@christophermonahan8571 you don't say!
It's only because JC is on this otherwise I would not watch -- No Farage for me
Look at the state of OZ, under Labour. Feel sorry for the Roos
??? The Australian Labour Party is not similar to the UK's.
Old Nige looks as if he needs a good dinner😊
You need a new shirt 😮
How old is that guy? He looks like he had to be defrosted before going on set.
I think that's what they said in 1992 so let see what happen in november
We need to vote REFORM , Its the only way this country can go , don’t vote Labour , Starmer is getting ready to build thousands of houses to house the immigrants … 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧✝️
We do need 100s of thousands of new homes for everyone here in the Uk
I remember them saying very similar things about Brexit. A forgone conclusion the PM said, he didn’t even stay up
for the results. Oh dear this chap is another old boy who really shut be tending his roses rather than offering crazy
opinions.
Remain was never 20 points ahead
well i think john curtice has got it very wrong this time
The grifter sees opportunities in the rumble he created himself.
Farage sounds rusty in this one. Must be the mic. 😂
No Farage is well aware he is speaking to John and Farage knows less jaw jaw from him no mention of Reform as John knows his business. Farage just zips up better than making a fool of himself show true colours. Oh he won't do that. What a charlatan Farage is
I'd never even heard of the reform party this time last year so the rise to prominence is awesome. 😊
Brexit Party and UKIP rebrand.
@@mazzab1970 I'm not bothered what's it's called it's what it stands for.
The new protest vote, people will listen if the message is clear
@@kevinadamson5768what does it stand for?
@@Sollatimer-Ed.southeast- everything the other parties don't.
To my earlier " 2019 Gen Election "John Curtice has Warned Boris Johnson may not get the big majority the polls are predicting." Experts eh? I thought we'd learned that lesson. I wouldn't pay them in washers. And I thought Nigel knew that too. Ian Duckworth.
Get Khan out.
Khan is 20pc ahead in the polls for London Mayor. He is cruising to a third term. Excellent mayor who has the support of Londoners. I know that racist bigots don’t like him tho.
Prof Curtice!!! Would make a good Bookie!! What a plonker!!
So, in other words, a vote for the conservatives is a vote WASTED if they are going to lose anyway. Therefore, we might just as well vote Reform UK despit Sunak saying that a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour.
KS and basic ar
Better get my prayer mat ordered
Time people to wake up and really Change this country for the better. Reform get my vote.
Why would any one vote Liebour ffs people WHY ???????!! 🤦♀️🤯🤷♀️they are worse the tories & they are terrible.
Nigel is laughing - after all, he started all this nonsense.
Yes Nigel has a lot to answer for which caused a huge division, hate and anger.
Is not nonsense Reform is gravely dangerous.
@@lindacurrie8817two more decades and the UK will be a peaceful tolerant Islamic Caliphate. Your opinions do not matter and demographics is destiny
@@lindacurrie8817
Grow up! 😂
Here speaks the guy that got Brexit totally wrong, and had to apologise, why do we listen to these so called "Experts"
If polls are showing Tories and Reform even, then it will be possible for Tories and Reform to agree not to stand in every seat. So, voters would not be able to choose between Tory and Reform. If Tories refuse to afford this to the country, then the question must be asked: Does the Tory Party really care about the country?
I think that is what is going to happen at the last minute, one party or the other will stand aside depending on who is best placed to win, then the two parties govern in coalition.
Farage, when he was leader of Brexit before it became Reform agreed with the then PM Boris Johnson to do just that
With Sunak, there’ll be no such agreement, Reform will fight toe2toe for Tory votes.
Who's running for the Dolphin party? Farage be terrified of them.
I think there is a paradox here with the Tory/Reform vote
1. Nearly all the Reform vote is coming from 2019 Tory Voters (including those who had not voted Tory before)
2. If Reform don't stand it's not given the voters will return to Tory - they are fed up with the Tories - probably don't trust the current leadership as they ditched Johnson, a major factor in them backing the Tories. So they will either abstain (all as bad as each other) or continue a protest vote against Tories and vote Labour
So yes the Tory vote will increase to say around 30% but not enough to save them
@@theman2017inc Neither Tice nor Farage are stupid, they know first past the post will hammer them into oblivion. But if they can persuade the Tories to stand down in seats where that would give Reform a good chance of getting an MP, Reform will do likewise, if there is no Reform candidate, a lot of people who would have voted Reform will, very reluctantly, vote Tory instead. I'm certain that this is the plan, it's the only way Reform can get any power.
When is Nigel Farage going to spell out in full detail all the life-enhancing benefits and advantages that Brexit has brought us, or was all that "taking back our sovereignty" spiel merely meaningless drivel?
Just a couple, no more payments to Brussels after our debts are paid, NHS spending £127 billion 2016 today £180 billion, mire than the red bus slogan, happy days.
Brexit hasn't been completed and that isn't Farages fault it's tories and civil servant's ,everyone knows that fact ,one of the reasons Dominic Cummings wanted to clear out civil servant's they were one of the stumbling blocks ,and look what happened to him, we are still tied to EU rules and God knows how long too untie them ,tories blame covid, wars high inflation energy food fuel ulez and net zero illegal immigration.
@@lloydnaylor6113 Thats not taking into account the increase in population vs individual spend, meaning we now spend far less on the NHS.
@@tumblefatboy ah right so if we remained nhs spending would be higher 🤣
We could always consider the "life enriching" potential of a socialist Britain. Well, it won't enrich our lives. Just Rayner and her corrupt cronies.
British people that don't normally vote will voice their opinions in this general election. I haven't voted for decades, same as millions of people in the UK. Voting is more important than it's ever been, as Tories and Labour have dismantled this country, and will continue to do so. Brexit referendum was a joke, democratic public vote that has shown the true priorities of the current government, spoiler alert! British citizens are not important to the politicians. Labour would be worse if they get elected, overturning Brexit, no limit on migration, election interference in their own party, more protection for islamists, council and government buildings flying foreign flags, religious prays allowed at council meetings, in Parliament and mass one's that shut down train stations ect.....
Vote Reform!!! They haven't failed us, they deserve a chance. It's literally impossible for them to do as bad as the parties that have run our country till now.
Reform are just the same old right wing tories, and the only reason people vote for them is because of immigration.
My self and my family, will be be voting for the REFORM UK PARTY, no no more voting for the TORY Party after fifty years voting for the TORY PARTY. your days are over SPECIALLY with RISHI SUNAK AS the PM no way will i vote for the TORY Party with RISHI SUNAK as our PM.
Reform
Reform for a fascist dystopia.
@@mustrumridcully3853 What a load of nonsense!
If Labour get anywhere near a win this country is lost and regret will remain for years to come. The very idea if this political revolution is to get Great Britain back on track and away from religious influence and mostly the Muslim grip on this our society.
Well they would not be any worse than the Christians. The two headed monsters!!!
Not only is your comment dumb it is also politically naive.
You associate Labour with Islam. How many Muslim MPs does Labour have? Galloway (Worker's Party) won the Muslim vote in Rochdale because guess what? Muslims don't like Labour.
Muslim grip on society?😅
Are you for real? Or are you a Nazi? Or are you just stupid?
Remember Mr Forage this is only England.
I will be so so happy when it is only England.
Meaningless comment Abdul .
@@RemoanersRtossers where do you get Abdul from Saccanach I'm native not an import from Germany
As much as I dont want to accept it we are facing the prospect of Prime Minister Starmer & Health Secetary Wes Streeting
This country is going to back to the 70s within 1 term
Remember the Tory Party joined us to the EEC without a referendum, the Tory Party opposed the 1975 in/out referendum, the Tory Party supported 'stay in' in the 1975 referendum, The Tory Party joined us to the EU without a referendum and the Tory Party supported Remain and used £9m of voter's money on a government propaganda Remain leaflet and then the Tory Party negotiated the Brexit deal.
Yes, the Tory Party took us out of the EU, but realistically there was no prospect of a second referendum overturning the 2016 vote and a second pro-Brexit vote would have destroyed the UK/EU plan.
I wonder if the Tory Party is doing all this deliberately; getting Labour elected so, the pro-EU news can shout: _'The British people have rejected the Tories and Brexit!"_
How demented
@@willhovell9019 No! You are - what you said!
MR CURTICE OF COURSE THEY WONT WIN AND WE ARE DOING EVERYTHING TO MAKE SURE LABOUR DONT WIN EITHER VOTE REFORM IT MAKES SENSE
Voting Reform will split the Right wing vote and in many cases make it easier for Labour to win .. so by all means go for it
@@davidsimpson8192 I think a lot of Reform voters do not consider this Conservative government to be right-wing, and they probably view the Conservatives and Labour as being much the same right now. So, from their point of view at least, they aren't splitting the right wing vote at all.
Farage..The Nucky Thomson of British politics..Why this lier with he’s super sized gob is still listened to shows how low we’ve come..
Bang on!! A privately educated millionaire masquerading as a man on the people. He despises ordinary people and spends all his time grifting a living with presidents, oligarchs and newspaper barons. Utter fraud.