In that game, Jason immediately bought in for another 1.5 million and won a 2.5 million pot a few minutes later. So, losing 921,000 Euros? No big deal for Jason ...
@@petershearouse661he doesn’t hate a call, he wants a call, just a call that takes 1-2 mins. He is value jamming AQ because he thinks all AK should fold out by turn and there’s only 1 AA combo left (which he expects to get 5bet some times) and he doesn’t think TT would squeeze lot plus only 4 combo of it left. So he loses to 5 combos of sets and will make hands like JJ QQ KK hero call sometimes if they think Jason has bluffs like 99, 44, KJ, K9 etc.
Jason Koon is clearly awesome and would 100% bluff shove this river. But with AQ for value - can 77-99 or JJ, QQ, KK ever call here? It seems unbelievably thin for value… the river is surely a check back.
Yeah its more about the fact that your opponent simply does not have enough hands that beat AQ here to not shove this for value. Literally only TT. I guess 1 combo of AA too. But in comparison they have a bunch of JJ, QQ and KK that will from time to time possibly hero this off.
Yeah I thought the same thing, like is he getting called often by worse there? Some QQs (but he blocks that) ,JJs and sometimes KKs but I think Kalas would mostly 5bet that. On the other hand he basically only lose to TT and maybe AK but very unlikly he gets there with that imo. So yeah very thin value but he gets called by more hands that he beats than hands that beat him. Unfortunate.
The question is if villain had jj qq kk would call that river, that what i think would make that shove profitable case if he only call with TT AA Ak and fold that JJ QQ we’re losing long term
I’m just having a hard time thinking what worse hand can possibly call here when u shove ace queen on the river, like yeah maybe he can hero with jacks queens or kings, but seems very unlikely given that those cards unblock ace highs that got there, making it more likely for Jason to have a A in his hand, just seems extremely thin
9:10 “most of the time he’s gonna get a fold” But the only hands that fold are hands that he has beat. AK (if it gets to the river) is never folding. So I still don’t fully get the logic behind the river bet. It’s only to try and get hero called by JJ-KK right? But that feels dicey to me.
So many "experts" in the comments here LOL. Guys, maybe consider this is the reason you're still break-even player at your local 1/2 and 2/5 games and guys like Galfond literally climbed the stakes ladder from a $100 bankroll to multi-millions. Most of the fake full tilt pros were cons, cheats, etc but the legit guys climbed the stakes ladders by studying and posting on 2+2 a lot. You can disagree all you want LOL but I'll take Phil's opinions over yours anyday haha
hi Phil, thanks for your strategy videos, I really enjoy them. If you see this, I'd love to get your opinion on studying solvers vs. learning about poker thru advanced courses. I am a low-stakes live player that doesn't know whether to invest in GTO Wizard to independently study the solver or if I should purchase courses from your run it once site on NLH. any advice would be great, thanks so much
I mean as played on the river it is a cooler but why tf are you 4 betting one of the biggest nits on earth with AQo?? Either fold pre or just call the 3 bet and you save yourself 1m. Know your customer.
And he is going to run into QQ + more times than he is not pre vs this particular villain. I am actually shocked from watching Kane a bit from tv shows that he even 3 bet 1010 to begin with.And only turn card I can see him folding to is a K or A as played.
I understand the theory behind value shoving AQ here. I just feel like in practice it’s too thin. I know it shouldn’t matter and it’s just big blinds but this isn’t a 100bb pot at 1/2 here. Kane is also a solid player not a call happy rec. Is he really going to call JJ-KK enough on this river to warrant it? He understands what Koon’s 4b range looks like MW here what hand that wants to 4b pre barrel flop and turn then jam an A river can JJ-KK beat? Even the majority of his 4b bluffs will contain an ace and a lot of them river 2 pair.
so basically Koon list 931k playing this hand this way. my only question would be if/how this is going to work... how many times does he have to play this hand in order to on the winning side 🤔
Think of all the cards that aren't sets or straights that he would be calling a 4 bet preflop with and would call each street. Jason is unfortunate that he had 10s
Bad river shove. What does he beat? If opponent has JJ, QQ, KK - he won't call anyway (thinking that Koon has overpair or has hit his AK or AQ - so no need to call). He only gets called by better (AK, set). Also, the fact that 1010 guy checked call means he has at least a bluff catcher (also very unlikely Kalas has a draw since he would have gotten creative by now or at least bluff on the river - not check as a dead man).
10s feel like the only hand he could lose to there. AA would have 5 bet, he has the blocker on A3s, A5s is blocked by the board, A10 of spades maybe but that seems like it wouldn’t have been played that way. Tough beat.
He himself cant have anything stronger than TT here, so he needs to call, as he would be explotaible vs top pros like Koon, who shove every Hand there as a bluff. Btw as he shove AQ for value TT obv. is way ahead of his value range
Always ask one improtant question, can my opponent vbet worse? if the answer is yes, u need to call. And I am not talking about this situation, set is a slam donk call as he cant have anything better here. I am talking in general, if opponent can have worse for value, u need to call ,,wider"
I do not think this is a shove here from Koon. Koon played this hand like JJ QQ KK Ak. How can he get called by worse when the river comes off an Ace?!? Everything that beats him calls and underpairs are now gonna fold out.
1/2 players would lose a ton trying to play this way. Now if ten regs made some kind of weird deal where they were all going to study GTO and then come back and resume in six months you'd see a lot more action at first, and then a broken game in a few months with perhaps a guy or two moving up in stakes.
Seems like a check back on the river. If you bet and know you are beat when they call, then you are never expecting for them to call with worse. Why wasn’t he happy his opponent called? Because he knows the only hands calling have him beat. JJ, QQ, KK fold. AJ never is in his range, so either he has AK, A10 or a set that will call. If you bet a river and know you are beat when they call you are basically bluffing with the best hand, except there is no hand he beats that folds. If he had JJ then I like the bet. Because you can get a better hand to fold.
He didn't know he was beat when he called, he knew he was beat when he snap called. Because a snap call is clearly at worst two pair. Even AK probably thinks for a second.
Seems too thin for jam on river, esp if If BBhas any AK and also if he folds some JJ on turn. I assume when Koon bets for value on river, you want to be called by worse value hands, not just bluff catchers.
like most commentators I don’t agree with the River shove…what bluffs does he have? and more importantly, what hands does he expect to call?? but hey, that must be some super GTO high stakes stuff we peasants just don’t get…
Idea here is that Jason is probably good enough to find bluffs so he can get some thin value. Is Jason underbluffing this spot? Maybe but he still needs to go for the bet and hope for hero calls
@@VVeZoX exactly, guys who cannot fathom 4betting a suited connector hundreds of BB deep are trying to act like the only hand that should 4bet b/b/b this runout is AA. If he is betting this, that means he is arriving at ace rivers without making a pair sometimes.
Couldn't comment on the short about running it twice, but it is actually changing your odds. Say you're both all in pre, you have aces and they have 8s. If the first 5 cards dont have an 8 in them, then it is now meaningfully more likely that the second 5 do. So while aces is expected to win 80% of single run pots in that scenario, it's probably closer to 75% of pots while running it twice. It's similar for a flush draw from the flop: winning the first run makes it slightly less likely you'll win the second. It will almost always favor the person behind in equity to run it twice, as it gives them more looks at the specific cards they need to hit. Both players will revert closer to 50%, which is obviously bad if you're ahead and good if you're behind.
@@jeremytimmons Am I wrong? I'm very interested to know, because as far as I can tell, nobody seems to understand this. Every explanation of run it twice I've found online says that it's equal EV to do so, but it's usually not. You will end up closer to the mean. It shouldn't be the case that I know poker math better than pros, but there is also one correct answer on this. So I could be the one who's right. It only applies to running it less than maximum times, as if you ran AA vs 88 nine times, it'd revert to standard odds. You probably get 2 runs with an 8, which combines with the random straights and flushes to get to 20% or so. But the effect of no replacement combined with the significant increase in value winning one of two runs brings seems to cause 88 to win closer to 30% of pots when running it twice.
@@evankraabel5415 @evankraabel5415 the ev is the same because it's just as likely going in that the draw bricks first run or second run. Your example of 5 cards coming out that aren't an 8 making it more likely an 8 comes the second time is true. But when the 8 comes the first time it's now significantly less likely it comes the second time. It all evens out. You could test this with an equity calculator, but running it once or twice makes no difference on your overall EV. Im not good enough at math to give a better explanation, but I'd think you'd be willing to trust the thousands of poker pros who know more than we do about it to be right about this.
I humbly disagree with the has too shove. AQo blocks a lot of Kalas’s calling range. Which is mainly QQ or AKo/AQo. So when you are ahead you aren’t getting called and only getting action with a split or better hand. Very poor shove. On the river IP doesn’t purely bet based on equity
@@Stockhandle123 If you're saying Kane mostly has JJ-KK, how can you justify a shove with AQ ? Kane is never calling with those hands after getting 4 bet pre on an ace river...MAYBE KK he calls only...but otherwise he's simply folding or snap calling with AK or a set...I would understand a shove on a blank, but on an ace river, you should either be betting small and folding to a shove, or simply checking behind
@@JelloJiggleMan he never has AK kane is folding KK ever and QQ is going to be a mix. If he folded everything but TT he is exploitable and he can't be that vs jason.
@@Stockhandle123 first of all you can't say 'he never has AK lol...he can call AK on the turn sometimes...second of all, you're basically saying he's ONLY calling KK and sometimes QQ, that's a SUPER narrow range of hands to target by Koon, so you've basically made my point by showing that he's rarely if ever getting called by a worse hand, and more often than not only getting folds or snap calls by shoving AQ there
@@JelloJiggleMan he is never calling face king on the turn. His range is basically just TT-Kk. He calls with more that you beat than beats you. The shove is +ev. The main way to know I am correct is that jason did it and the guy doesn't make mistakes, plus the commentator says he should also shove for value.
![$2,000,000+ Pot with a Straight Flush Draw?! [EXPLAINED]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/ptg7iTT_uIU/mqdefault.jpg)
![$2,000,000+ Pot with a Straight Flush Draw?! [EXPLAINED]](/img/tr.png)
![Felix "Unfair" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Oswujxm2Ag0/mqdefault.jpg)
Thanks for watching! Free for all of you, here's my ebook, 'Poker Mindset Strategy': galfond.link/mindset
Phil Galfonds choice in toothpaste is definitely +EV
Those are veneers
@@Road2Serfdom How can you tell?
@@synchronium24he's shown highlights when he was younger and his teeth look quite different
@@synchronium24 he's mentioned it himself
@@Road2Serfdom thanks
In that game, Jason immediately bought in for another 1.5 million and won a 2.5 million pot a few minutes later. So, losing 921,000 Euros? No big deal for Jason ...
Yeah, but who cares how much money he has or will have, this video is not about that...
Phil, you are by far my favorite poker analyst.
Thank you! 😊
Ok but the main question is, what are the bluffs from Jason? How does Kale should perceive his range to call it off with KK/QQ here?
basically only if there was an unlikely 4 bet from 89s or QJs
@@djvk11 thank you
Yeah I’m curious as to what the river bet with AQ is supposed to accomplish. JJ and QQ surely have to think about folding at that point?
If he hates call and beats the majority of Kanes value range, why are we jamming river?
@@petershearouse661he doesn’t hate a call, he wants a call, just a call that takes 1-2 mins. He is value jamming AQ because he thinks all AK should fold out by turn and there’s only 1 AA combo left (which he expects to get 5bet some times) and he doesn’t think TT would squeeze lot plus only 4 combo of it left. So he loses to 5 combos of sets and will make hands like JJ QQ KK hero call sometimes if they think Jason has bluffs like 99, 44, KJ, K9 etc.
Another great video by none other than Mr Galfond. Thank you
Jason Koon is clearly awesome and would 100% bluff shove this river. But with AQ for value - can 77-99 or JJ, QQ, KK ever call here? It seems unbelievably thin for value… the river is surely a check back.
What are your river value shoves then? I'm certain you are going to find that you don't have enough once you really break down your range.
Yeah its more about the fact that your opponent simply does not have enough hands that beat AQ here to not shove this for value. Literally only TT. I guess 1 combo of AA too. But in comparison they have a bunch of JJ, QQ and KK that will from time to time possibly hero this off.
Yeah I thought the same thing, like is he getting called often by worse there? Some QQs (but he blocks that) ,JJs and sometimes KKs but I think Kalas would mostly 5bet that. On the other hand he basically only lose to TT and maybe AK but very unlikly he gets there with that imo. So yeah very thin value but he gets called by more hands that he beats than hands that beat him. Unfortunate.
Exactly. He’s never getting called by worse.
The question is if villain had jj qq kk would call that river, that what i think would make that shove profitable case if he only call with TT AA Ak and fold that JJ QQ we’re losing long term
He wins money with his bluffs if villain do not call witn PP under A sometimes
Phil if the turn doesn't come a ten and say it's another low card. Would you still call the 10s after Koon bets turn.
Really tough spot. I think I’d lean fold.
@@PhilGalfond thanks for replying
I’m just having a hard time thinking what worse hand can possibly call here when u shove ace queen on the river, like yeah maybe he can hero with jacks queens or kings, but seems very unlikely given that those cards unblock ace highs that got there, making it more likely for Jason to have a A in his hand, just seems extremely thin
I agree
9:10 “most of the time he’s gonna get a fold”
But the only hands that fold are hands that he has beat. AK (if it gets to the river) is never folding. So I still don’t fully get the logic behind the river bet. It’s only to try and get hero called by JJ-KK right? But that feels dicey to me.
So many "experts" in the comments here LOL. Guys, maybe consider this is the reason you're still break-even player at your local 1/2 and 2/5 games and guys like Galfond literally climbed the stakes ladder from a $100 bankroll to multi-millions. Most of the fake full tilt pros were cons, cheats, etc but the legit guys climbed the stakes ladders by studying and posting on 2+2 a lot. You can disagree all you want LOL but I'll take Phil's opinions over yours anyday haha
I ❤️your Commentator. Very detail and Professional. I’m very Enjoying to watching games 👍🏆💰🇺🇸😊
Glad you like them!
hi Phil, thanks for your strategy videos, I really enjoy them. If you see this, I'd love to get your opinion on studying solvers vs. learning about poker thru advanced courses. I am a low-stakes live player that doesn't know whether to invest in GTO Wizard to independently study the solver or if I should purchase courses from your run it once site on NLH. any advice would be great, thanks so much
The all in on the river doesn’t make any sense….! am i the only one who notices this?
thank you for the analysis Phil. If the river would not have been in ace I think the hand would have been way more interesting
I just see Phil Ivey staring everybody down not saying a damn word😂
Shouldn’t he get some equity to bet that turn? Or at least a fd to represent?
1 million euros can't be sustainable for most of these
Great format, thanks!
I mean as played on the river it is a cooler but why tf are you 4 betting one of the biggest nits on earth with AQo?? Either fold pre or just call the 3 bet and you save yourself 1m. Know your customer.
that nit is folding the turn unimproved
AQo is a good and solver approved hand to 4b in this position and when Mikita flats pre Kane's 3b range is quite wide. Very standard even vs a nit.
GTO is fine vs other GTO players but since Kane is such a nit who is playing non GTO you have to deviate from
GTO yourself
And he is going to run into QQ + more times than he is not pre vs this particular villain. I am actually shocked from watching Kane a bit from tv shows that he even 3 bet 1010 to begin with.And only turn card I can see him folding to is a K or A as played.
Why was Kalas putting rubber bands around those weird ass chips at the end? Bro cashing out after 1 hand ? Lmfao
man if I won 931k Euros I'd be on my way out the door
What are Jason’s bluffs on the river? If Kane were to have JJ instead for example.
Any straight draws, KQ type hand.
I understand the theory behind value shoving AQ here. I just feel like in practice it’s too thin. I know it shouldn’t matter and it’s just big blinds but this isn’t a 100bb pot at 1/2 here. Kane is also a solid player not a call happy rec. Is he really going to call JJ-KK enough on this river to warrant it? He understands what Koon’s 4b range looks like MW here what hand that wants to 4b pre barrel flop and turn then jam an A river can JJ-KK beat? Even the majority of his 4b bluffs will contain an ace and a lot of them river 2 pair.
i almost always 4 bet bluff my AQo, what i hate doing i 3 betting it oop because if i get 4 bet it gets tricky.
so basically Koon list 931k playing this hand this way. my only question would be if/how this is going to work... how many times does he have to play this hand in order to on the winning side 🤔
Think of all the cards that aren't sets or straights that he would be calling a 4 bet preflop with and would call each street. Jason is unfortunate that he had 10s
Bad river shove. What does he beat? If opponent has JJ, QQ, KK - he won't call anyway (thinking that Koon has overpair or has hit his AK or AQ - so no need to call). He only gets called by better (AK, set). Also, the fact that 1010 guy checked call means he has at least a bluff catcher (also very unlikely Kalas has a draw since he would have gotten creative by now or at least bluff on the river - not check as a dead man).
10s feel like the only hand he could lose to there. AA would have 5 bet, he has the blocker on A3s, A5s is blocked by the board, A10 of spades maybe but that seems like it wouldn’t have been played that way. Tough beat.
i dont get it
Yall see Phil Ivey soul reading at 0:19?
I don't understand how Kalas isn't worried about top set on river?
He himself cant have anything stronger than TT here, so he needs to call, as he would be explotaible vs top pros like Koon, who shove every Hand there as a bluff. Btw as he shove AQ for value TT obv. is way ahead of his value range
Always ask one improtant question, can my opponent vbet worse? if the answer is yes, u need to call. And I am not talking about this situation, set is a slam donk call as he cant have anything better here. I am talking in general, if opponent can have worse for value, u need to call ,,wider"
Because Jason value bets AK+
I do not think this is a shove here from Koon. Koon played this hand like JJ QQ KK Ak. How can he get called by worse when the river comes off an Ace?!? Everything that beats him calls and underpairs are now gonna fold out.
pretty exploitable if you always fold pocket pairs when ace comes
the jam on the river, i don't know...seems like he wasn't beating much that Kane would have continued with even hitting the ace...
AK off also possible
Quite unlikely Kane just calls OOP pre with AKo and then also calls flop and turn.
So should I assume that all these pros have at the very least an $8 million bankroll if you calculate the 20 buyins of 100bb?
No cause most of them sell action
these games dont run often....so having a certain amount of buyins for these stakes is not possible/likely...plus they sell action
why do they use those big ol chips they look so funny
Noone mixes up his rangers like Phil Gandalf.
"YOU SHALL NOT...CHECK!"
How does this look silly, pretty standard spot I'd say. It's just a little but bigger than your local 1/2 game 😂
1/2 players would lose a ton trying to play this way. Now if ten regs made some kind of weird deal where they were all going to study GTO and then come back and resume in six months you'd see a lot more action at first, and then a broken game in a few months with perhaps a guy or two moving up in stakes.
Seems like a check back on the river. If you bet and know you are beat when they call, then you are never expecting for them to call with worse. Why wasn’t he happy his opponent called? Because he knows the only hands calling have him beat. JJ, QQ, KK fold. AJ never is in his range, so either he has AK, A10 or a set that will call. If you bet a river and know you are beat when they call you are basically bluffing with the best hand, except there is no hand he beats that folds. If he had JJ then I like the bet. Because you can get a better hand to fold.
He didn't know he was beat when he called, he knew he was beat when he snap called. Because a snap call is clearly at worst two pair. Even AK probably thinks for a second.
pretty naive to assume kane is pure folding JJ-KK OTR
Seems too thin for jam on river, esp if If BBhas any AK and also if he folds some JJ on turn. I assume when Koon bets for value on river, you want to be called by worse value hands, not just bluff catchers.
@@tradingpoker1324 yeah, esp not ruling out AK completely because of the smallish turn bet.
Because it was a snapcall he is beat. A tank call and he will win.
like most commentators I don’t agree with the River shove…what bluffs does he have? and more importantly, what hands does he expect to call?? but hey, that must be some super GTO high stakes stuff we peasants just don’t get…
Idea here is that Jason is probably good enough to find bluffs so he can get some thin value. Is Jason underbluffing this spot? Maybe but he still needs to go for the bet and hope for hero calls
While you may not have a lot of bluffs here, Jason Koon does- that's the difference
@@VVeZoX exactly, guys who cannot fathom 4betting a suited connector hundreds of BB deep are trying to act like the only hand that should 4bet b/b/b this runout is AA. If he is betting this, that means he is arriving at ace rivers without making a pair sometimes.
Couldn't comment on the short about running it twice, but it is actually changing your odds. Say you're both all in pre, you have aces and they have 8s. If the first 5 cards dont have an 8 in them, then it is now meaningfully more likely that the second 5 do. So while aces is expected to win 80% of single run pots in that scenario, it's probably closer to 75% of pots while running it twice. It's similar for a flush draw from the flop: winning the first run makes it slightly less likely you'll win the second. It will almost always favor the person behind in equity to run it twice, as it gives them more looks at the specific cards they need to hit. Both players will revert closer to 50%, which is obviously bad if you're ahead and good if you're behind.
Imagine trying to explain poker math to Phil galfond 😂
@@jeremytimmons Am I wrong? I'm very interested to know, because as far as I can tell, nobody seems to understand this. Every explanation of run it twice I've found online says that it's equal EV to do so, but it's usually not. You will end up closer to the mean.
It shouldn't be the case that I know poker math better than pros, but there is also one correct answer on this. So I could be the one who's right.
It only applies to running it less than maximum times, as if you ran AA vs 88 nine times, it'd revert to standard odds. You probably get 2 runs with an 8, which combines with the random straights and flushes to get to 20% or so. But the effect of no replacement combined with the significant increase in value winning one of two runs brings seems to cause 88 to win closer to 30% of pots when running it twice.
@@evankraabel5415 @evankraabel5415 the ev is the same because it's just as likely going in that the draw bricks first run or second run. Your example of 5 cards coming out that aren't an 8 making it more likely an 8 comes the second time is true. But when the 8 comes the first time it's now significantly less likely it comes the second time. It all evens out.
You could test this with an equity calculator, but running it once or twice makes no difference on your overall EV. Im not good enough at math to give a better explanation, but I'd think you'd be willing to trust the thousands of poker pros who know more than we do about it to be right about this.
Imagine JBOOGS losing this pod.
way too thin otr by Jason. He isn't ever getting paid by worse
2000/4000. So these guys are buying in for 2 million? Must be nice to have a bankroll of 60 mil to whip around.
I see better play at 50-100nl crazy this is real money
At the beginning you give a whole explanation on why koon 4 bet AQo and but the wasnt the action, koon 3bet, kalas 4bet, koon 5 bet, kalas calls.
You obviously didnt watch the video then did you
The graphics are wrong, there was no straddle, galfond explains it was an open, a 3bet from TT, then 4bet from Koon
horrible shove it is not a tournament he is only getting called by better if kalas has anything worse than AQ he is not getting called
LOL. Amazing how you guys who occasionally break even at 1/2 know exactly what to do when you know the cards.
@@lew115 You should never bet for value then be scared when your opponent calls .
I humbly disagree with the has too shove. AQo blocks a lot of Kalas’s calling range. Which is mainly QQ or AKo/AQo. So when you are ahead you aren’t getting called and only getting action with a split or better hand. Very poor shove. On the river IP doesn’t purely bet based on equity
Lane never has AK or AQ on the river those both fold the turn. Kane mostly has JJ-KK thats almost his entire range here which is why you shove.
@@Stockhandle123 If you're saying Kane mostly has JJ-KK, how can you justify a shove with AQ ? Kane is never calling with those hands after getting 4 bet pre on an ace river...MAYBE KK he calls only...but otherwise he's simply folding or snap calling with AK or a set...I would understand a shove on a blank, but on an ace river, you should either be betting small and folding to a shove, or simply checking behind
@@JelloJiggleMan he never has AK kane is folding KK ever and QQ is going to be a mix. If he folded everything but TT he is exploitable and he can't be that vs jason.
@@Stockhandle123 first of all you can't say 'he never has AK lol...he can call AK on the turn sometimes...second of all, you're basically saying he's ONLY calling KK and sometimes QQ, that's a SUPER narrow range of hands to target by Koon, so you've basically made my point by showing that he's rarely if ever getting called by a worse hand, and more often than not only getting folds or snap calls by shoving AQ there
@@JelloJiggleMan he is never calling face king on the turn. His range is basically just TT-Kk. He calls with more that you beat than beats you. The shove is +ev. The main way to know I am correct is that jason did it and the guy doesn't make mistakes, plus the commentator says he should also shove for value.