4 Scary Predictions on China's Future (ft. Peter Zeihan, Laowhy86 & more) | JHS
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- Опубликовано: 30 июл 2024
- Four different experts give their opinions on the future of China. Links to the full interviews below!
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What We Discuss:
0:00 - China's collapse by 2030 (Peter Zeihan)
7:04 - What's in store for China's future (Laowhy86)
17:15 - China's invasion of Taiwan (Ian Bremmer)
20:14 - China's invasion of Taiwan will be unexpected (General Spalding)
Full Interviews:
Peter Zeihan • Peter Zeihan on China'...
Laowhy86: • Laowhy86 on China's Up...
Ian Bremmer: • Why China Isn't The Th...
General Spalding: • General Spalding on Ch...
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/ @jordanharbingerclips
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Welcome to The Jordan Harbinger Show, a video podcast where each week you get to join a conversation with some of the world’s highest performers and incredible personalities. I’ll ask them the tough questions to tease out their top tips so that you can reach levels of personal growth and mastery that you never imagined possible.
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#podcast #jhs #china
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I taught in China.
Immigration there would impossible.
When he said “blindingly racist” he was being kind.
I am living in West, I know what is intentional racist.
@@wyz9815 well La-de-da. I have been to China and I have been to other countries where I am not the racial majority.
I know this is your first experience with racism, but being a different race in China is worse.
Have you been spit at? Denied service because of your race? Had police follow you? Been assaulted?
This is your first experience with racism because you are part of the majority in China.
@@wyz9815 chinky bot
@@wyz9815 Obviously you don't, unless it's Xinxiang
I find the whole idea that China would be able to attack Taiwan effectively using mass helicopters to be questionable. There are a number of reasons for this. First, China's entire fleet of transport helicopters is around 400 made up of Mi17s, Z8 and Z20 models. If all flew to max capacity that would enable about 11,000 troops transported. If China was able to send these helicopters in 4 roundtrip waves within 24 hours leading to a maximum transport load of 44,000 troops over the course of a full day. Second, the Ukraine War has shown that in today's battlefield environment where helicopters are easily detected and the defenders have advanced weapons including air defense missiles both medium and short range, plus Manpads and all types of RPMs, then the survivability of a Helicopter in a strongly defended airspace is poor. Third, in an optimistic scenario "only" 20% of helicopters are lost in each wave 50% of the helicopter force could be lost in that 24 hour period. That would mean only about 50% 22,000 troops would actually deployed on the ground and the Chinese Helicopter force would be reduced to a little over 200 transport helicopters. Fourth, Taiwan has about 450k troops defending the island so this force of 22k would be outnumbered 20 to 1. Of course in some locations that ratio could be more favorable to the Chinese but they would need many more troops to take on these numbers with either paratroopers or sea landing craft. Again SAM and Ship to Ship missiles from land could do massive damage to invading troops. An invasion of Taiwan would take hundreds of thousands of troops not the small numbers a helicopter force could provide. Could China take Taiwan - If they are willing to take the horrific cost through combined air land and sea assets, perhaps but that is in doubt, and all this does not even take into account the blowback from US, South Korea, Japan, Australia and others. Sorry, general your logistics don't add up, unless I'm missing something.
Not to mention the war zone that the busiest waterway in the world would become. China would be telegraphing years in advance a coming invasion as they prep for it. Think of the food, oil and raw materials they’d need to stockpile to not have their people to starve. Also, it’s one thing to invade, it’s another thing to occupy another country when all supplies need to come by either air or ship. Even if China is successful in a takeover, how would they hold it? It would be a constant invasion to supply with resources for occupation. The US can not afford to lose the Island to China.
Very well said. I tend to sum it all up this way: _Could China take Taiwan? Yes, but the only way to succeed would be to virtually destroy it in the process._ Granted, China doesn't really give a crap about whether Taiwan gets destroyed, but they do care about "face" and they care about international trade. Destroying Taiwan would be a HUGE loss of face for China, and the kind of sanctions we put on Russia would be devastating for its economy. As Peter Zeihan has pointed out many times, it would be exceedingly easy for the US (or India, for that matter) to blockade China's energy supply from the Persian Gulf and elsewhere.
They also have to do all that without destroying tsmc, or killing the people who work in the fabrication of those chips. They're already building the new factory in the US which means that people familiar with the process are here too. The ccp can not just make those chips without a guiding hand, doubt there will be too many of those after they bombard the island. If they can not save the factories or some of the manufacturing employees they're basically committing suicide because they'll never see the highest of high grade chips again.
Gonna resupply the survivors with helicopters as well? They'd run out of food and equipment in hours
yeah the last guest is a clown, I laughed at him during his whole delivery, he must be paid by the CCP or something.
Last guy. How many troop transport helicopters does China have? Because you would need a metric buttload of them to ferry enough troops to make a dent. Plus helicopters are almost ideal MANPADS targets. I think you might be able to make a surprise attack with helicopters at the outset of an invasion, perhaps to secure some critical high value target, but the idea that you could use them to ferry the main body of the troops that it would take to subdue a nation of 25 million people is pretty unrealistic in my opinion.
Unless they know something we don't know, China only has a fleet of about 400 to 500 Choppers total that could transport the entire trip to drop off troops. That means that in a 24-hour time frame if and only if every single helicopter survived and was able to drop its troops there would be about 44-55 thousand troops on land in 24 hours. We know that we could cut that by 50% at least based on the defensive capabilities of Taiwan. Not only that Taiwan has a standing army of approximately 450,000 not including the hell they will catch from Japan, Australia, the US, Etc.
last guy is a clueless clown, probably paid for by the CCP.
@@demsandlibsareswinecancer4667 Plus there is this thing called the Republic of China Air Force (with about 300 modern frontline fighters, about 66 F-16s on backorder) and thousands of SAMs, both static, mobile, and handheld. If the Mujjahadin in the 1980s can shoot down Soviet helicopters with American stingers then the Republic of China Army, Air Force, and Navy should be able to stop the PLA, or at the very least make them bleed every day.
yea they got alot of things wrong with the general in the last one, china overcounted its population by 100 million by their own admission, their GDP is 50% the size of its official claims using GIS light radius measurement methods
last guy i can't disagree with more. He's forgetting to account for how many people secretly hate the CCP within China and only keep up appearances. Then he forgets that NATO has over a billion people, The Quad brings another 1.5 billion plus the countries of the south china sea. An invasion of Taiwan is something the CCP would sorely regret. Mind you, give them 10-15 years, they'll probably collapse just because of demographic aging anyway.
Jordan, thank You for sourcing great guest and following up with a great interview/s. Your show is the bomb!
thank you Mike!
I am a Taiwanese. I am surprised that so many 'Taiwan experts' exist.
Yeah, I don't really think he is. He may be an expert on other things but he really lacked insight.
that third dude has over estimated China in every way.
Yes, and he forgot Japan. Japan won't let China take Taiwan.
General Spalding is a but of a defeatist. Surprising for a military man to take such a defeatist position. Maybe he's paid by the CCP to posit a position favourable to them. It is very difficult for the PLA to coordinate a successful cross-channel invasion of the main island of Taiwan. For example, in Operation Overlord (World War 2) the costs of invading (Omaha Beach) was still very high and the chances of the amphibious assult and beachhead failing in Normandy was palpable for weeks after day 1. For example, it's much harder to ferry logistics supplies over a hostile stretch of water than land (it's tough enough on land as the Russians discovered in Ukraine) and it's much easier to defend a Beach front as the attacking force must arrive in ships or aircraft and land there. They can't conceal themselves in the landscape.
@@kryts27Realistically, members of the top brass have always overestimated our opponents for the sake of keeping or enlarging their budget. People like the third guy tend to overlook like mainly because they're disconnected.
The last guy acts like both the U.S and the Japanese would just let this happen. He sounds like a Chinese commentator.
@@warrenreid6109 China can't even operate their own semiconductor fab facilities. Even if they take Taiwan without firing a shot they couldn't operate those either. Plus they don't have a deep water navy to escort their own trade ships.
The part General Spalding misses is the US Navy's 5th Fleet parking itself in the Arabian Gulf and stopping every supertanker headed to a Chinese port, and there is nearly nothing the PLAN can do about it. Overdependence on Persian Gulf oil has its downside.
We have the 7th fleet in Japan and lots of forces in Guam and Okinawa. We don't need a whole lot else.
@@warfarenotwarfair5655 But it's the chokehold from the 5th on the energy supply lines that'll get the job done.
@@ZFPAkula I see what you mean
That’s where Russia comes in handy.
@@BillyBoblovesthedirt The capacity of the current pipeline/rail links between the two are already maxed out. New pipeline links are an 8-10 year project.
C-Milk is the man! The China Show is must watch every Friday.
The only show I really try (and mostly succeed) to watch live on the net. That's how important it is for me
Got me a tractor, got me a frog......
No thanks. White people on china.
Heyyy should we use chinese people and afghans to talk on usa .
Taiwan has far more military capabilities that Iraq did in comparison. I don't think this dude knows for sure how well Tiawan will do, but the fact China has yet to take Taiwan in the past 20years should be an indication of the difficulty of the operation.
That guy is way off.
He lost me when he compared Taiwan to Iraq. Makes me question if that guy really does his homework. Invading a country with helicopters over a stretch of sea 100 miles wide?
Another one of those "experts".
Agreed. I know a number of Taiwanese and I have seen some of their soldiers train. Every male has to put in 2 years of military service. The Taiwanese have had this looming over their heads since their people fled the mainland. They have not been sleeping.
@@vindobonaification
Remember this podcast is Peter Zeihan and Laowhy levels of bad. Some former airforce paperpusher argueing you can pull off the logistics of an invasion with helicopters, is actually pretty good compared to those two hacks.
And I say that against the background of knowing some of my former lecturers at the academy, especially the doctor of the Intendance, would want to slap airforce guy for claiming that. 😆
(Zeihan is a boomer idiot who makes money by pushing the Fox News narrative, Laowhy is a bittered ex-migrant who knows he makes more money bashing China than by doing anything else)
I agree.
I think the “general” is way off
Anyone else love to see a discussion panel on the PRC with Peter Zeihan, C-Milk, Ian Bremmer and General Spalding together in the same room? I think it would be very interesting to watch.
Or even any combination with Lei from Lei's Real Talk. Great folks.
I would need Chris Chappell for comic relief 😂
Ian Bremmer is a china shill.
No, because nothing that comes out of c-milk’s mouth is of interest to me. Find someone closer to Peter’s level.
The Third guy is an idiot.
“Eradicated poverty” When the government reported this a couple of years ago they used this term at first, then changed to “eradicated extreme poverty.” Basically, people are still poor, but few people are dying of starvation. “Extreme poverty”, the newer term, means people at least have enough money for food.. From a historical viewpoint this is progress.
One thing Ive never heard discussed is the age of farm workers. I have not traveled enough in the countryside to call myself an expert, but based on what I’ve seen the farm worker demographics are heavily skewed towards older workers. What will happen in the next ten years as those workers quit due to physical limitations? Can China sufficiently mechanize its agricultural production to make up the shortfall in workers?
This has been planned for and is actually a necessary movement for China. The current state of affairs can not be salvaged as such.
Why?
Most Chinese farms are tiny family-run affairs with scattered tiny plots everywhere. You're talking 1-6 hectares for a majority of working farms. Land ownership per 'farm' (many of them no longer working, just renting out their tiny bit of land while they work elsewhere) was down to a staggering 0.6 hectares.
To give you an idea: Those are the sort of farm sizes that triggered the Rwandan Genocide. The average cultivating farm in the Netherlands (the other extreme of bloated overly-subsidised farming) was already 20 hectares, in 2000.
Now this is clearly a problem. Chinese farms are too small to provide a living wage no matter how they change their methods. But land ownership is still a huge deal culturally and tied to several family members entitled to it: Even if one guy wants to just sell off, likely his family members will disagree and block it. So they probably won't sell, and forcible seizing of lands would cause huge problems (not to mention create more poverty).
So the basic plan is to let this rural generation die out naturally. People leave to the cities, sell their rural land (because they no longer care, in the city) and a percentage that either remains in the villages or returns to the villages with money made working in the city, is able to buy enough land to get a working farm out of it.
Only at this point is the Chinese government going to step in and push through more mechanisation.
So expect another 5-10 years of laissez-faire / status quo policies while Beijing pretends there is absolutely no rural problem at all, while said problem fixes itself.
To give you an idea of how stuck this idea is: My in-laws are among some of the 'hidden rich' within China, they live normal lives and actually spend very little in a month, but have built up quite a property portfolio over the decades. They own three rural houses as well as an illegally-large portfolio of urban properties (there's a maximum ownership of like 3, you're not allowed to own more houses).
One rural property is kept in semi-decent shape for family events. One is a ruin. One, they don't even know where it actually is located. 😆
But they tell me and my wife (we don't live in China) that we could use it for family events some time too, and we should hold on to them since maybe we can rent it out to people wanting to live there. (half the buildings in that village are abandoned, NOBODY will ever rent a house there)
And this policy will succeed because the minute both of them have passed away, the two ruined properties and the land are getting sold for 1 RMB, thus freeing up two farms for whoever is willing to forego a single cheap lunch to triple the size of his own farm.
And if anyone in the Chinese part of the family wants the more decent property, they can have it for a couple thousand, because it's located centrally in the village and if I'm ever going to stay there at all, I want something with a view over fields or the river.
The only thing we're going to hold on to are the urban properties. And probably not even most of those.
China still has 1/4 of it population in agriculture. It will continue to drop. But don’t forget China still has about 600 million living in the rural areas. The USA farming industry would collapse without foreign workers as USA farmers complained during covid.
So the last guy's reasoning that China will steamroll Taiwan is pretty much based on all the comparative infographics you might see in newspapers where one side is bigger than the other by every metric. Well, for past year we've all seen how that translates into the actual battlefiled. I expected a bit more of an in-depth analysis from a general
I think he is pushing for more military funding. The only time I can think of an airborne assault was used to take an island without amphibious support almost the whole division was lost and the other side didn't have massive air bases within range, like the allies of Taiwan have in Japan and the Philippines.
You do realize the US has lost every wargame attempting to defend Taiwan from China right ?
That's per Harvard's Belfer center btw
always a great idea to underestimate your enemy
Hopefully your parents had at least one kid that wasn't profoundly retarbed
Or at least an analysis based in reality.
@@jjquinn295 you are a moron, Japan is violating US price caps to buy Russian oil right now
America has lost every single war game attempting to defend Taiwan from China,none were anywhere close
America lost a 20 year war with goatherders,and fell on its face just pulling out of the country
China and Russia have fielded hypersonics,the USs testing of hypersonics have been complete failures
China and Russia have fallout shelters for roughly their entire population,whereas if you read " Raven rock " you will learn absolutely nothing has been done to protect Americans from nuclear war except for so called " elites "
America abandoned Taiwan before everybody by recognizing the CPC at the UN in 1972, in exchange for the CPC preventing the north Vietnamese from overrunning south Vietnam for at least 2 years after the US fled like cowards
The largest country that recognizes Taiwan today is Guatamala with approximately 18 million people
The reason Taiwan doesn't have nukes is because the US demanded Taiwan stop it's highly innovative nuclear weapons program in the late 1980s just as it was about to break out as a favor to the CPC
You people are all strategic morons and complete moral cripples
America has already lost,just delusional morons use magical thinking to pretend otherwise,just like y'all are so fat , you pretend you can still see your manhood I guess
I would have thought the Taiwanese would have an incredible number of SAMs available to take down virtually every helicopter coming across the straights. Sea based, land based and air based. Taiwan has had decades to design manufacture and prepare for this. Who is falling down on this??! Also, it will be easy to see the preparations a year out from the invasion, as a lot of resources will be needed to prepare for the invasion. The straights will become a war zone that NO freighter will venture into. Goodbye Costco products etc. but goodbye to food, oil and raw materials for China. All that will stop and China will starve. The devil is in the details.
Russia will be feeding and fuelling China soon.
Right on! I visited Taiwan 10 years ago and was mesmerized by the extreme terrain, it’s an island with huge mountains surrounded by cliffs and occasional narrow beaches. CCP can nuke it but that’s suicidal in every way. Putin won’t even try it!
I agreed, good point !
I agree China would suffer greatly.
It would be really cool to see these 4 guys on a roundtable discussion. I'd like to see them challenging each other on their assumptions and maybe finding some consensus.
Zeihan would embarrass the general.
Even a basic tour of Zeihan videos gives you the numbers to show how presumptive, if not cooperative, the general's assertions are.
@@barbeonline351 I find that whenever Zeihan talks about something I know something about (AI, EVs, nuclear power) he has no idea what he's talking about. Not just a little, MASSIVE mistakes. He definitely oversimplifies a TON.
I suggest you take what he says with a grain of salt.
He's always very entertaining and _sounds_ great though.
@@ChrisBrengel I don't know the specifics of your background or expertise. What you list are fields quite disparate.
What I will say is while his material tends to reek of superficial hucksterism, I have listened to some in depth interviews, too. In particular, one on EVs. The host, "an expert" went from one "fact" to the next and got pushback from Zeihan on each one. Zeihan had hard data each time, and more particularly had a broader scope (economics, resources, politics, history, etc.) than the host. The host was left slackjawwed.
So I suggest you temper your opinion. Just maybe it is the IQ of the audience that makes Zeihan talk like a pitchman rather than a scholar. He wants the material to be memorable.
What is certainly a fact is he has access to information sources across a wide breadth of fields that exceeds most governments. And another fact is that his client list would indicate that he provides pretty impressive information.
Another fact is he is quick to admit when he is wrong, as with several estimates made about Ukraine.
And a guess--I doubt you can name a better source of information, on as wide a range of topics, who can quickly give you the elements to build a more effective working model of the world.
IMO I think General Spalding in saying it would be a cake-walk for the PRC to successfully invade Taiwan, the PLA would reck itself trying to take Taiwan AND the resulting international sanctions would seriously bugger the PRC which is heavily reliant on the import of food and fossil-fuels.
I think that if you take into consideration the rough terrain that the PLA would have to endure including dense forests and steep cliffs, it would really put a huge setback on conquering the whole island despite having only 30 million people. Even if the islands cities were completely destroyed, i think that the Taiwanese people would develop a huge fighting morale and result to guerrilla tactics. Considering China lost to Vietnam which at the time was about the same size as Taiwan is today really goes to show how bad China is at modern warfare. But considering Chinas military buildup. We’ll just have to see how the do since Taiwan is a modernized country and has backing of the USA.
@@qtsssim Don’t know but the moral is very high when your country is being attacked by a foreign one especially one that has been threatening you since the CCP’s founding☝️
Nobody wants to move to China,nobody.If the Chinese population equalizes to 500 million,that would be a good start.
@qtsssim Taiwan certainly has more recent major combat experience in that they sent units to fight in the Vietnam war where they apparently developed a fearsome reputation.
@qtsssim Check this out - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_in_the_Vietnam_War
Now while Taiwan did give some military assistance it wasn't as extensive as South Korean assistance. The South Koreans hated the communists (The Korean had only been just ten years before and the commies were evil arseholes in the areas they controlled)and sent a lot of troops to South Vietnam, apparently the RoK troops scared the crap out of the Viet Cong.
The Desert Storm Airmobile division moved 20-30,000 people at most, in the initial leap, the rest were motorized.
They will target a port and zerg for it. A helicopter assault follows up to take 1 of several ports targeted by a missile/drone bombardment. Then their navy lands amphibious troops to give the heliborne units heavier firepower to hold the port. The next tier of the plan would be loading Chinese troops on every ship they can fit in that floats. If Taiwan can hold for the first week, and the rest of the world is willing to take the risk, They will join in. TSMC being the largest lever requiring the world to move. China has 90 days to consolidate their gains before the gas stops. Taiwan has to be willing to pay the price of the 300 spartans however. if they want some portion of their people to survive.
Discovered you because of laowhy86. Peter Z is great. Keep coming with the great guests and I will keep watching .
thank you! welcome
I follow Peter Z. everywhere 😊
Gotta love how much the American deep state tries to talk shit on China's demographics
Median Age in years
USA 38.5
China 38.4
Percentage of population under age 20
USA 24.8
China 23.2
Life expectancy in years
China 78.1
USA 77.4
How do you defend against a helicopter invasion force? Millions of hand held pen lasers to blind incoming pilots and hundreds of thousands of kamikaze drones to start. It might not stop them but it could create a lot of problems. Plus, they could produce these things very quickly for very little money and can distribute them to anyone. Just a thought.
Every citizen should have at least an AR15 and a stack of SAMS to hit the helicopters when they land. The military can have their go at the helicopters as they traverse the straights, but once they land, that’s when chaff will be of no use to the grounded helicopters.
I'd just look at hostmel ukraine 2022. That helicopter attack on the air field didn't pan out so cool
You see, for that we have this thing called an 'airforce'. Or if you apply the more Russian school of thinking, AA defenses quite capable of nearly nullifying airpower that doesn't have acces to high-level electronic warfare, stealth and radar-seeking missiles.
@@sandymilne224 Nah, I think if the Chinese put Robert Duvall in charge of their operation, they will surely succeed.
@@stevedavenport1202 : …But only if he’s wearing his cowboy hat!
I wish your guests could have talked with each other too.
Why? I am subbed to them all but Matt and Peter are on different levels. I'm not saying they don't all have something to offer the conversation but it's their differences in opinion and knowledge that makes it more valuable than if they were on seperate shows.
In mu opinion, of course
Last guy was ready to roll over for China
😅 He must be paid by China.
He was paid by American arms manufacturers.
With regard to the first part: another reason China would struggle to attract immigrants, even if it wanted to, is its language; it must be one of the most difficult languages in the world to learn from scratch. Whereas for the US and the UK, English is already the dominant global language, and pretty much every would be economic migrant already understands and speaks enough of the language to get by upon arrival, and then to become proficient fairly quickly.
Additionally, a lot of things in China are disgusting. Food handling, cities, hygiene, dating habits, work-life balance, etc. Why would anyone immigrate to China over Europe or the US??
no, Chinese is not hard to learn contrary to beliefs. it's pretty simple when it comes to grammar structure, you just have to get used to hanzi, which at first seems daunting, but is actually easy to transition from pinyin (at first) to hanzi, and then you have to actually get the tones right (only 4-5) and learn the words. that's it.
@jobslolo7387 The issue is pretty much no one outside of China is familiar with Mandarin. Virtually every young person on Earth knows English to some degree
No, English is not already widespread among all the other cultures populations. SOME of the people know it, but the majority of the potential entry level employees, do not. First, the ones who DO know English are the educated and will not go to China, they will go to the American countries that have industry or Europe (or even the growing Arabic and south Asian countries that have a history of English speaking workers). China is NOT one of those. If you don't believe me, then travel to third world countries where there are excess people who would be willing to move to someplace foreign, and see.
@@d.e.b.b5788 The "excess people from third world countries, who would be willing to move to someplace foreign" you mentioned, they mostly don't have the means to do so. The people who does, mostly likely would know english and would just move to europe or america.
Wow! Three of my favorite RUclips intellectuals all in one show!
Definitely “RUclips intellectuals”
Idk the host but I luv C milk and Peter Z.
I'm liking him though
The 3rd guy is beyond unintelligent.
@@warrenreid6109 He does come off as unprepared and has a small stuttering issue.
hey now, who you callin' "intellectual"? ;)
@18:05 -- _"If they're willing to draw their history all the way back through ancient China..."_
This is a common misconception about Taiwan and its connections with China (or lack thereof). Since Taiwan is right there, just a hundred miles from the mainland, it's natural to assume that China has been involved with Taiwan from ancient times. But that is about as far from the truth as you can get.
In actual fact, the aboriginal tribes ruled Taiwan unchallenged from prehistory up until the 1600s, when Europeans began to establish settlements (in particular, the Dutch stronghold _Zealandia_ near present-day Tainan). There were no Han Chinese inhabitants of Taiwan before that time, because those who tried to settle there were eaten by the natives. It was the Europeans with their superior weaponry who made Chinese immigration to Taiwan possible (even though it was prohibited by Chinese law). Furthermore, the Qing government of China never controlled more than half of Taiwan, in the western plains region. The eastern mountain areas were never brought under central control until the Japanese occupation, starting in 1895. And during the Qing dynasty, Chinese control over Taiwan was so lax that European governments had to lodge a formal complaint during the mid-1800s due to the rampant piracy that was going on, based out of Taiwan.
All of this is detailed in the introduction to the classic _"Formosa Betrayed"_ by George Kerr. You can download the text in PDF, _legally,_ because the book has been in the public domain for decades.
Thank you for the information I didn't know about!
BS . Han Chinese is not a race . It’s kind of title . Do you know what ethnicity Mao was lol . And if i remind you china has more aboriginal tribes in China then in Taiwan , which are relate. To people like austriasian poleynesian , even this men lawhay68 or what his wife herself is all this kind of different race person which she is from china . So saying Taiwan has no relation with China because Taiwan is aboriginal tribe and China is Han Chinese make no sense. And it’s not like they have no control over Taiwan but china their policy is always rule indirect, don’t wipe out population like what European did with native Americans but rule over their indirect so that population will remain. If china wanna be brutal like Europe America ir Japan lol china would have already wipe out all minorities in china way before like what American, Japan, Europe did and keep doing it .
Hey Jordan, I would love if you could give your opinion on the BRICS stuff and maybe contact Peter again to get his take on the latest updates. People are freaking out because of it, but with Peter's views on China and also Russia with their inevitable collapses, it just doesn't seem to scare me as much as people like to fear monger about it on the internet
23 million people couldn't defend themselves against a much larger force.
Australia took that personally.
Jordan should seriously consider speaking to *Vlad Vexler* !! Knowing Jordans got ties to Russia and has similar cultural interests he'd have an amazing convo!
Vlad's an academic of Russian philosophy, politics and literature, he runs a RUclips channel by his name.
If Vlad could at least be put on Jordans radar if he isn't already thatd be amazing!!! I'm a long time supporter of the guy, definitely one of my #1 sources.
Vlad Vexlar has limited number of hours available each day, at present time and hopefully will have more time for interviews.
I have been listening and watching Peter Zeihan for a while and he reminds me of the TV news weather man. The weather man will accurately predict the weather and will be able to extrapolate any issues like potential flooding. Twisters 🌪 even forest 🌳 🔥 fires. But being able to predict exactly if any of those events will occur and the extent of any effect, they cannot do. Peter’s predictions also don’t take into account that people tend to follow opportunities wherever they see them. We see this now with the amount of young Americans and Canadians moving to Mexico 🇲🇽 for a new life in a more affordable environment. As for China, they are suffering demographic issues now due to the one child policy and the decades it has been in place.
Do you have any figures to cite for Canadians and Americans moving to Mexico? A lot of paranoia about the cartels is what I hear.
The problem with emigrating to China is that China literally won't let you get a Chinese passport, never mind how long you've lived there, whether you married a local and whatnot. They can welcome you for a while (especially if you do a more prestigious job) - they also have quite a few Africans down south due to China's emphasis on building its position in Africa (didn't stop them from openly blaming foreigners, and especially Black people, for covid, even banning them from restaurants at some point). But you can never fully integrate there legally or be fully accepted culturally. So how can you emigrate there and hope to build a safe future if you're always going to live precariously? The CCP doesn't want foreign immigration: a more homogenous society is easier to manage, it's easier to present the outside as the enemy when everyone on the inside is the same. In short: unless you're a rich businessman, a star athlete or some such, the CCP doesn't want to attract you from abroad by providing opportunities.
@@AW-uv3cb well . The west world view point of world is everyone has to come to west or Europe that’s what democracy is . But what Chinese view point is let African stay in Africa and develop, let’s Chinese stay in China and develop, let’s Muslim stay in their respective nation so that their brain drain will stop and they can develop their own nation . But the west is literally opposite let’s brain drain all these nation like Africa China , Russia so that we west can be advance lol . So before understanding don’t just shout immigrants immigration. That’s why china is building infrastructure in Africa so that they can work on their own but west is keep pushing that down. .
@@ranfak Highly skilled workers from all over the world beg to come to the US. We don't even allow all of them to come in, it's not some plot to brain drain the world. Some people just like freedom. Call me when you can say winnie the pooh without fear of imprisonment over there.
@@AW-uv3cb
The Guangzhou Blacks are NOT a recent movement, that's a historical inheritance that happens to attract a few more recent migrants, a coincidence basically. He restaurants thing is BS, that's not racism, that's general xenophobia, but BLM fools love to spin false narratives.
Also migration does exist, but takes two forms:
1 - There are quite generous provisions for people from Taiwan. Nobody serious wants war, but demographically braindraining Taiwan is definately a way towards 'reunification' as Beijing calls it. If you quit Taiwan it saves you two years forced service in the military and can easily double your salary while reducing your living costs. (assuming you're the average Taiwanese migrant and not some dumb guy who had to struggle to graduate, salaries for unskilled labour are obviously lower)
Beijing is banking on many Taiwanese with no particular feelings on extreme nationalism, doing what's best for themselves. This movement is at least thousands strong, but the size is unclear. Some propagandists claim half of Taiwan has left and 'reunification' will happen soon, others claim nobody has left and China has failed and both of these groups are wrong.
2 - There is migration from surrounding countries, especially southern asia, but this is conveniently kept illegal, much like the American model. These people can be made to work, but don't have any rights, so if there's problems with them: "Oooh, you've broken the law, let's deport you", once again basically a copy of the way the US does 'illegal' migration of South Americans.
Jordan, please apply a high-pass filter for your guests' audio signal. There's a ton of rumble on Peter's mic, easily fixed. Thanks for what you, Jen, and family do. This guest really provides great insight, thanks for the show.
Good advice General Ripper
In terms of warning period, an aerial assault would also leave a logistics trail that can be detected days if not weeks beforehand. Not to say it would be as long as a naval assault, but we’d catch it for sure.
Usa measures to stop taiwan progress. The measures included asking Taiwanese chip makers to hand over confidential information to the US Department of Commerce and banning US entities from exporting advanced chips, the equipment used to make them and the related intellectual property to China. Contentiously, the policy effectively forced some companies to transplant their production lines to the US.
The US$40 billion construction spending, one of the largest foreign investments in American history, means it will cost more to produce chips in Arizona - twice more than in Taiwan, despite the federal government’s pledge to subsidise 25 per cent of the expenditure under the Chips and Science Act. The Arizona project appears to be a honey trap. Fabrication plants in Phoenix weaken Taiwan’s geostrategic significance because the US could continue to procure cutting-edge microchips
Meanwhile, the US eventually showed its true colours by announcing last March that under the Chips Act’s guardrail provisions US-sponsored foreign chip makers would be required to share any excess profit with the federal government.
Japan will get involved in that war. Outcome of the invasion is not certain.
how do you know?
I have been to mainland China twice. The Chinese are not Americans and they do not have the same priorities as we do. They are not obsessed with "freedom" like we are. It is not something they think about. They think about their country raising them out of poverty. They think about longevity doubling. They think about upward mobility. Freedom is something we superimpose upon them. Or we find a few hundred people picketing and assume it is the sentiment of the county. It is not.
Taiwan maybe a tiny island nation of 23 million, but they have state of the art western weapons, and a well trained military force built around a strong core of field commander's and a strong cadre of NCO's that like western military organisation's, give their troop's in the field the ability and is encouraged to act on their own as circumstances dictate or exploit an unexpected opportunity to further gain an advantage over your enemy or completely cripple them. The military model that both China and Russia have, does not allow for nor encourage initiative of jr officers or it's enlisted without referring to the brigade or division level authority. Certainly not to be given short shrift is the fact that Taiwan has been preparing their Island and their cities where (If the Chinese actually managed to get off the beach) the Chinese would have to fight street to street, building to building in a dense metropolis that their troops do not know the lay of and against not just Taiwan's military, but a civil population that has been going through a civil defense program for several years, learning how to use weapon's and explosives should China ever invade. The guest is completely wrong in his assumption that China will steam roll Taiwan and it will be over in a matter of weeks. China continues to get thumped by India in their border dispute in the high mountainous area of their shared border and in 1979 when they tried to impose their will on Vietnam and crossed the border into Vietnam, China got humiliated in short order. China lacks anyone at even the most senior officer levels and senior NCO ranks that has any actual combat experience from participating in an actual war. Nobody is voicing this, but I will. China's smaller neighbor's in Asia are very leary of China's aggressive military build up and overt expansionist agenda. I would not be suprised in the least to see, if China goes forth on an effort to invade Taiwan, that China's smaller neighbors would take that moment as China is fully committed and distracted with their invasion of Taiwan, compelled collectively by the belief that if China has no problem swallowing Taiwan, will eventually cast eyes at them , which compells them to act preemptively against China.
wow，it’s very rare to see a comment which is wrong from A to Z😂 Good job, bro from the Mars～
Taiwan only gets old western stock, for obvious reasons.
What an interesting hodge podge of interviews from a well-researched individual to a shock jock hot take talking out of their ass.
but which is which? ;)
Is called white guys rambling
@@JordanHarbingerShowdo tell me.. why are white americans used for opinions on china ?
Why no chinese ,
That last guy is wrong, I don't want to insult him.
The last guy drank thee Koolaid
The Xinjiang crisis could be a way to help prop up the manufacturing workers deficit, but as usual it is badly executed.
China's demographic collapse is even worse than what Peter is saying, because they have way more men than they have women.
And we all know fertility depends on the number of women, not men.
what does collapse mean here anyway? as in 1 billion chinese will die?
@@kimeli All will die. That’s why reproduction is necessary, but they’re hardly doing that.
@@kimeli nothing . This anti-C!n people are doing this tactic. Improving youself is not good as much as demoralizing your enemy that’s what this kind of channel doing . That’s why chinese government is quiet smart to not let this kind of social media damage their youth . And believing me I don’t know china will collapse or not but people like you and me wil surely collapse be day and night we are feed with so much propaganda, misleading information that is giving damage to our brain emotion, the way of thinking that it’s about to blast. The only question is when that’s it’s .
China has 410 million people under age 25. USA has 104 million people under age 25. Peter Ziehan is overly optimistic. Because of corruption not everyone adhered to the one child policy. Government officials can be paid off. Russia, Italy, South Korea, Japan, Germany have worse demographics than China.
@@kimeli yes, in the next 50-70 years.
Collapse means that there will be less and less people as time passes and the speed will increase.
I have followed Peter Zeihan for a while. I'm not a newb to geopolitics and am always skeptical. He knows his stuff.
Nope he didn't
My thanks to your guests.
they're great, and I'm honored.
General Spalding is way overestimating the military capability of the CCP, and the host is way overestimating the strength of the Chinese economy. Russia is beggaring itself in it's war against the West in Ukraine. The CCP would be doing the same if it attempts to challenge the West by invading Taiwan.
Helicopters are fragile. The frequently fall out of the sky all on their own with no enemy action. Without first achieving air superiority, any airborne assault would be suicide. Even with air superiority, ground-based air defenses would still significantly degrade the attacking forces. Once any air assault troops deploy on their landing zones, they are going to be isolated with no supporting artillery or armor.
If the CCP took the amount of time necessary to prepare the battlefield, by bombarding fixed air defenses and destroying any land based air forces, the Western militaries would use that time to seize every last Chinese owned installation and asset outside of China. This would include every last Chinese cargo ship bound to or from China. Trading all it's foreign installations, assets, and influence for a reluctant Taiwanese province would not be a good trade.
Russia at least has China as a somewhat ally. China won't even have that, once Russia's defeat in Ukraine causes it to collapse, again.
You nailed it. The blocade on China's seaborn trade would devestate it in a matter of months. No more grain from AUS, no more coal ships out my window, no more foreign currency as per the Russian example of SWIFT !
Views from actual westerners living in China are authentic. RUclipsrs such as: cyrus jensen, living in china, rafi goes around, and many more. (George Galloway,, critc of the west).. I was blind sighted until I came across these guys, and am looking forward to paying China a visit. In fact, I consider moving there...
Please do.
Moving to a country where you will never be a citizen during a time when they are going thru issues with being able to feed themselves seems incredibly insensitive. How will you work if the citizens themselves are having issues finding employment. Just what is your purpose? Do you know. You don’t have to tell me but you should be more critical of yourself and your intentions.
@@jharris3267 China has a strict policy for their own food security. China economy is still growing, as well as its technology. To know what is real China, real life in China, check youtube videos made by expats living in China now, a few mentioned above, they show you what is happening on the ground of China, not wishful thinking by ignorent fake Chinese experts or words by China haters. Go there and check yourself, that is the best way!
The RUclipsrs living in China that you mention are all paid shills of the CCP. Nothing they say can be accepted as fact but I suppose no matter how ridiculous some things may be it will be believed by a certain percentage of people just because it’s said. Good luck and good riddance!!!
How do you explain Peter Z and General Spalding having such a different outlook on the Taiwan invasion? General Spalding says it's inevitable, but Peter Z says it's inevitable to fail. I don't know what to believe at this point.
4:59 my favorite part.
What disturbs me the most about the scenarios analyzed by Western observers is the wishful thinking when analyzing a foreign culture. General Spalding, in my view, is correct. Even Peter Zeihan's predictions are far fetched, and although based on real data, they don't take into account human resourcefulness and the ruthlessness of the Chinese Communists. In my opinion, we should not engage in this exercise without considering all factors involved. China has always been a mess but look at what it has accomplished in the last 40 years.
Do you know China was getting all sorts of help / aids from almost every possible economic source group in the world ?
Problem is, the CCP you're describing as resourceful & ruthless doesn't seem to exist anymore, thanks to Xi Jinping solidifying his absolute control of all things Sinitic--BUT more like how Pablo Escobar, i.e., using violence, brute force to get things your way---YET ignoring the longer term consequences of building/problem-solving something that will outlast them, and we all know what happened to Escobar--as the same applied with Attila The Hun....
And have I mentioned how plausibly stupider Xi Jinping is--despite of his ruthlessness? I mean, late family friend--AND CCP insider, Li Rui, once assessed that Xi Jinping is operating intellectually at a grade school level... NOT exactly something promising for any aspiring tyrant of the future.
What they achieved in 40 years was with lots and lots of help and special developing nation status.
@@lyns8062 Yes, the whole world, esp the U S have nursed them into the modern age and educated their movers and shakers. Who schooled all their engineers and architects/builders etc. ?
Lived in Taiwan for 10 years and their military is NOT prepared to withstand any kind of push from anywhere
Why? They have had decades to prepare
@@sandymilne224 Then again, is the PLA are all that prepared to begin with, given how disrespected they are in mainland China, plus the low morale, crappy equipment (think tofu dreg quality), and of course, widespread corruption within the PLA.
And I haven't even mentioned how weak the average Chinese soldier is, possibly in part to his chronic masturbation problem!
@@sandymilne224 They haven't wanted to foot the cost... and besides, about a quarter of them would be happy being "united" with the CCP mainland. But they've announced that going forward they are going to commit to spending 2% or more of their GDP on defense.
It would be great to get someone from "Strong Towns" movement for their opinion.
I take exception to the last guy repeatedly saying that China is the number 1 economy in the world. Maybe the most leveraged company in the world. They have National debt, local debt, banking debT and business debt.
They always use this PPP number which won't buy you wheat from Brazil or oil from the Middle East. PPP money might buy you a haircut Xi'an.
@14:40 if there's no poverty , then why is it still deemed a developing country? Considering they have an advanced space program with an proper space station, I think they are pretty much "developed" as far as economics go.
Number 1 economy, that was funny; like calling Madoff as a business genius
Authoritarians want to not only want to control now but both the past and the future as well.
That fourth guy was hammered
You need tot talk to "Lei's real talk"
Interesting. I have always leaned toward the need to control population growth. But this argument seems to make the case for economies requiring growth of the population being necessary/mandatory for a healthy economy. I must admit to feeling a bit shocked.
If it comes to "ain't gonna trade LA or NY for Thigh Pay", at least give a couple hundred thousand dozen nukes with the delivery kit for the Thigh Pay forces to make Bey Jink ponder some more about its choices.
In 10-20 years what can Japan/ Korea do when Russia and China are laying moribund as placemarkers? Japan crosses to Vladivostok, colonizes the mianland, and retakes Sakhalin Island? Korea expands into the Manchurian Plain and exploits the deposits in the mountains that frame it? (Maybe mines the empty Chinese Cities?)
This last guy sounds like he drinks Xi chi se ping bath water
A mass helicopter assault seems fanciful. But perhaps a mass airborne assault of glider-borne troops and parachutists, preceded by a missile attack, would be more feasible. The German assault and capture of the island of Crete in WW2 would perhaps be the most relevant example.
@ 6:33 Wouldn't foreign invasions, such as by the Mongols, count as "inward migrations"?
Jordan screwed up by having Laowhy Matt on instead of someone from the China Uncensored channel. Matt and Winston from the ADVChina channel have repeatedly stated in the past that they hope for reform in China, not the abdication of the CCP.
Mainland China won't take Taiwan. NOT only would they lose a devastating number of troops, but Taiwan would likely destroy their semiconductor fabs rather than let the CCP have it. You would also see buildup happening and it would allow time to move allied forces into position. Finally, the sanctions that would hit China as a result of their attempt would kick China back to the 1960s in terms of economic output. In short, it won't happen and the threats and posturing are just empty words
Lol it has nothing to do with semiconductor. This semiconductor is over hyped. Either way America will force high end semiconductor owner to not sell or work with china so it’s doesn’t matter to china if semiconductor is destroyed or not the main thing is geography important that’s it’s
Using population disparity to suggest overwhelming military superiority is questioned by a number of military experts. However, this argument makes a clear case for nuclear weapons on the island.
PZ loves his own voice. That's what I learnt
I would think he has never seen Erasure Head.
Dont quite get the ”the US has one of the greatest mobility going from lower classes to higher classes”. The last time i checked, it was quite far down on the list.
*God Bless America!*
🕊☮🗺🌎🌏🌍
*#1 Global Superpower*
You don't have 1.4 billion people though.. I thought that number was inaccurate.
Most estimates are between 800mil to 1bil
MY PEOPLE ARRIVED HERE ABOUT 17,000 YEARS AGO.
Much of the General Spalding interview doesn’t make sense. Just last year a Chinese general admitted that the Chinese military is weaker than the Russian military. Much of the Chinese military consists of cheap knockoffs of Russian weapons and their soldiers have no recent battle experience. It failed in its war against much smaller Vietnam in 1979 (it got scared and withdrew before taking Hanoi when it saw what it was facing). China has been licking its wounds ever since. Failed because Chinese minorities were evicted from the north of Vietnam and Vietnam kept control of Cambodia, which more-or-less is what the war started over. It’s complicated.
And the Taiwanese military is an order of magnitude stronger than Ukraine’s military. It has all modern weapons, long range missiles that can hit Beijing, and an air force of F-35 fighters. It is an island which makes invasion near impossible. Japan and the UK were never invaded for this same reason. The U.S. navy will sink any Chinese naval vessels that attempt to blockade Taiwan. It’s not like China’s few nuclear weapons will scare the U.S. away from taking action.
At the very least China would face a boondoggle like Russia is facing with Ukraine but more likely it will be stopped and pushed back to the mainland in short order with far fewer ships, planes and soldiers. Also China is more vulnerable to sanctions than Russia. The world does not need anything China produces unlike Russia’s energy, food and mineral wealth that entail major hardship for the world to do without (though not impossible). China brings labor to the table and there’s no shortage of this commodity from many other countries (India, Indonesia, Philippines, Mexico, etc.). In fact, the labor shift is already happening.
Another thing is China's own imports are very easy to blockade, especially oil from the Middle East where most of their oil is sourced.
@@cloudpoint0 you're not wrong. This was recorded pre-war, so maybe his opinions have changed.
@@JordanHarbingerShow
Probably older interviews should be dated so we can put them in perspective.
@@cloudpoint0 that's a good idea. will tell the team that makes these. we could put the date in the corner of the video or something
Hope it’s not as bad as Y2K!!
My last comment was directed toward Pete. As to the rest of the vid, just one crit (cuz i love it generally). It's always easiest to crit the other guys. As Chomsky points out (always, whether or not this is itself self-serving to his own career and (more importantly) identity, it's always easier to criticize the official enemy. That doesn't mean the criticisms aren't true! In this case, they almost certainly are! That's easy with the CCP. But what I'm seeing is that the very *existence* of these kinds of crit vids (which I *do* think should exist) is an example of what Noam has discussed for a half-century: the ease with which we dismiss the misbehaviors of our *own* government's official enemies. I dunno: just sayin. I am no fan of autocrats. And, as a follower of Peter Zeihan myself, I'm no bland truster that everything that Chomsky says is the end of the story. But that means that there's more to it, and especially, often, things we'd rather not see....
Point is they are only considered native to Europeans.The earlist humans on North America is under study currently with many archeologists doubting the Bering land bridge as the means of first populations reaching the Americas.Whom we consider Native Americans could very well have displaced an earlier civilization.
@ 25:55 he saying that was the U.S. plan for defending Taiwan since 1981????? Evacuation only?
Who is this guy saying China is the number 1 economy in the world? Isn't that the US?
The last person is so pro china
because you did not like what he had to say?
@@kimeli nope, because he is parroting the narrative of the CCP. For instance, he uses Taipei instead of 🇹🇼. Plus he is worrying about his supply chain when Taiwan is worrying about the lives of the people. He presumed 80 percent of Taiwanese are pro-CCP and only 20% Taiwanese are anti CCP
I'm all for immigration, I am not for open borders and free lunch on my dime. I'm at retirement age, still working and getting poorer every day. Taxes and crime are both to high.
C-Milk should advice the Congressional China Committee
Indian Americans migrated here as well.
When Zeihan makes a comment like the US is facing a racism problem with "white people being a little sketchy," it makes me question everything he says.
Mostly free, if that were true government wouldn't be involved in every aspect of the economy.
Anybody think that an army of "only children" could storm the beaches like we did on D-Day?
They will refuse to get off the boat.
A sustained missile barrage for several days, or even weeks would undoubtedly be the first move for China to eliminate high value targets before any beach landings on Taiwan.
The Chinese navy and Air forces would take heavy losses.
The CCP does not necessarily want a big bloody war over the main island of Taiwan (especially as the chance of winning, even without American help, hangs in the balance as it will).The CCP may not mind that 100,000 of it's soldiers, navy, airmen etc. may die in the invasion attempt, but if they fail it will be a massive loss of face and difficult to conceal defeat. Much more likely that the CCP will claim victory over a much more smaller, achievable (and much less strategically important) target such as the invasion of the Kinman or Matsu Islands.
At 5:06 i thought the united states was/is a constitutional republic??????? Everybody keeps pushing this democracy word.
That last guest is really low balling the difficulty of coordinated arms in war. Let alone amphibious assaults and the country doing the siege has 0yrs of veteran experience in its ranks.
Dean Inge (Dean was his office within the Church of England. Not his name) was asked in the 1920s, (on a visit to the USA) what he thought about the country which he was visiting. Inge was noted for his caustic but witty statements. He replied that the USA had gone from barbarism to decadence, without passing through the customary state of civilization, in between.
I don't think he was ever invited to return.
The last guy talks out of fear, wont bother to know his name!!!
General Spalding definitely isn’t a PRC plant for anyone suggesting that. Just think he overestimates their abilities to some extent. He was an attache in China at some point in his career so its possible he knows something we don’t. Generally he is hawkish on China and has written books about how to counter them, seeing them as our greatest rival. I just can’t see how a US flag officer thinks any continental power could mount an assault on an island-mountain fortress, bristling with high tech weaponry that is hardened and dug-in, across a ninety mile stretch of some of the roughest seas on the planet. It cannot be done. The US government didn’t think invading Japan was feasible in 1945, and that was even with the USSR eyeing the Japanese northern flank. China cannot successfully attack Taiwan across the strait. Even if Russia provides some sort of assistance, which they cant, it wouldn’t make a difference.
The only offensive strategy China could employ would be to go completely scorched Earth. Massive conventional rocket and bombing campaign to level the island. This would defeat the purpose of securing the island, which is to consume both the high-precision manufacturing base of Taiwan and its robust, dynamic economy. Not to mention, if they turned Taiwan to an ash heap they would be a pariah.
No, but they'll use cheap gyrocopters to reinforce their landings, which will only kinda work... =P
I recently listen to an argument for China's economy being 40-60% of the size they are reporting. In light of this, isn't it likely that China would be hugely impacted if they went to war? The sanctions, the coalition of surrounding countries and the US.
Luis Martinez wrote that paper. We all know China had lied about their growth for decades. All that lying adds up. Martinez estimated hoe much by analyzing their light luminosity which correlates to growth. Others have analyzed things like their internal shipping. No, China's economy is not near the size of the US.
lions never eat porcupines,, cheetahs run away from honey badgers. The former general uses the wrong analogy regarding a 300 lb basketballer v a baby.
It sounds like the way to defend Taiwan is to make it less strategically important for the west. 🤔
that last guy is on china's pay role for sure
Gen. Spalding and Peter Zeihan need to get together and talk because their ideas are nearly opposite of each other.
Zeihan makes China sound too stupid and incompetent while Spalding turns China into a super-villain bogeyman with no weaknesses.
Spalding's ideas about an airborne troop assault are certainly interesting and need to be heeded, but it needs to be emphasized that every successful airborne assault in history was 1) limited in numbers of soldiers, and 2) were only advanced elements of a much larger invading force that arrived to relieve/rescue them.
The largest ever airborne assault in history was Operation Varsity, in which 16,000 paratroopers were dropped by cargo planes and landed by gliders in WWII, as part of the Allied forces crossing the Rhine river. This airborne operation was successful mainly because it was unnecessary, as German forces in the area had diverted south to meet the unexpected crossing two weeks earlier of the US Army at the intact bridge at Remagen.
The US does have an extensive history of using helicopter airborne troops, mainly against smaller enemy forces such as in Vietnam or against terrorists/insurgencies in remote areas like Afghanistan.
Generally, the history of airborne troops against well armed and well prepared regular armies is not great - airborne troops just don't have the heavy firepower and ammunition supply to sustain extended combat against a well prepared army. And a large supply of MANPADS is all you need to devastate any airborne assault in the modern era.
Spaldings ideas about an airborne invasion via helicopters is just mass suicide. It's on the same level as the kamikaze attacks Japan conducted against the US navy in 1945 near Okinawa. And his comparison of Taiwan with Iraq was just WTF???
Makes me wonder if he got his rank from a cereal box.
3:12 Not "antecedents" ... ANCESTORS! (big words suck, huh?)
In the invasion of Taiwan part. I do agree that Taiwan would be demolished, but to say that the PRC is like a baby is looking down on the technology supremacy that Taiwan has over the PRC. Not mention do you realize how hardit would be to send a fleet of helicopters of miles of water and mountains. The amount of air currents that those helps need to fight through. The issue here is experience and tech, mainly experience China's forces don't have any. Sorry about the rant, I just felt that he is looking down on how much fight Taiwan would have during a invasion. China might even be able to take Taiwan.
I wonder if that general gets paid in Yuan
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan has been gamed a few times including a recent CSIS effort. The consensus is that an invasion would fail but with enormous coalition losses including two carriers.
List of Countries the US has Bombed Since the End c
WWII
(may be incomplete)
Korea and China 1950-53 (Korean War)
Guatemala 1954, 1960
Indonesia 1958
Cuba 1959-61
Vietnam 1961-73
Laos 1964-73
Belgian Congo 1964
Dominican Republic 1965--66
Peru 1965
Guatemala 1967-1969
Cambodia 1969-1970
Nicaragua 198OS
El Salvador 1980s
Lebanon 1982-84
Grenada 1983
Lebanon 1983, J 1984 (Lebanese, Syrian targets)
Iran 1987
Panama 1989
Iraq 1991 (First Gulf War); 1991- 2003 (US/UK "NO
Fly Zone")
Kuwait 1991
Somalia 1992--94; 2007
Bosnia 1994-1995
Iran 1997
Sudan 1998
Afghanistan 1998
Yugoslavia 1999
Afghanistan 2001--ongoing
Iraq 2003 (Second War--more recently predator
drones)
Yemen 2002, 2009
Libya 1986, 2011
Just show up without your phone. Thats how they track you.
Central problem of the Chinese military is that they have never fought a war if they have won. They were defeated in India, several clients. They will also defeated by Vietnam. how would they do against Taiwan? Especially since the Taiwanese actually fought in Vietnam. On the other hand, they have terrific looking parades.