A2/AD: A Strategy for the Defence of Australia in the 21st Century
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- Опубликовано: 8 июн 2024
- Australia is enetresing a new and dangerous strategic epoch. For the first time in 70 years the nation faces the possibility of large-scale, general regional conflict in the Indo-Pacific. A great naval power has risen in East Asia, a revisionist power that seeks to challenge the US led order upon which Australia's security and prosperity has been based. Worse, that power will very soon have the ability to penetrate Australia’s maritime defences, at least as they stood in the late 2000s. The last time Australia’s strategic environment had a similar character the nation faced a war of national survival. But how can Australia hope to avoid the worst possible outcomes in this most dangerous decade? This video outlines a plausible path Canberra can take; Anti Access/Area Denial. Ironically enough pioneered by the PLA, at least in its modern incarnation, A2/AD offers Australia the possibility of offsetting Beijing’s naval superiority by leveraging pervasive sensor networks and long range maritime strike systems to deny vast areas of maritime geography to enemy naval forces.
0:00 Australia’s Grand Strategy and the Defence of Australia
25:25 The Sino-American War and Australia’s Role In It
52:33 Anti Access/Area Denial: A Lesson from Beijing
1:08:35 Long Range Maritime Strike Systems
1:24:50 Hardening Australia’s Northern Bases
1:43:23 History Might Not Wait
I have introduced my two (Aussie) teenaged sons to this channel and they are currently binge watching. Thank you @hypohystericalhistory your work is truly invaluable and much appreciated....👍
I appreciate the video. The defence of Australia isn’t covered enough. I’m glad there are smart and capable people thinking about this.
THE DEFENSE OF AUSTRALIA NOT BEEN COVERED IS A PLUS NOT A MINUS MEANING BAD GUYS DONT KNOW WHAT YOUR CAPABILITYS ARE WHICH IS KEEPING YOUR CARDS CLOSE TO YOUR CHEST WITH HIGHLY SENSITIVE MILITARY TECH , TRUST ME THE U.S WOULD LOVE THAT PROBLEM
@@brizzy991 you think China and Russia don’t have this information? This stuff is not top secret.
@@brizzy991 none of this is classified. Anyone who really wants to know about this stuff can find it, including potential enemies. One RUclips video is not gonna shake the foundation of a nations defense. And if it does, that defense wasn’t very good to begin with now was it?
@@brizzy991 Naval strategy has always been a public game of decades with windows of advantage in years.
Everything is exactly as always has been.
Love this. Actually giggled when I saw the notification and then the runtime. I follow many high quality RUclips creators but you are my absolute favourite. Please keep it coming.
The Dan Carlin of geopolitics lol
May I ask who else you recommend?
What a fabulous edition! My late father was a key figure in the development of JORN, he said very little about it as it was top secret. That is for your excellent production.
Wait a minute. Why are we Australians copycats of the Chinese now!
G'day,
Yeah mate, "Fabulous" is a very good word for this - meaning that it is totally based in Fable... "Fantastic" is another accurate term for it all - ie Fantasy-based.
Right now Anthropogenic Global Warming is accelerating in parallel with the increase in Global Fossil-Fuel use up to 1997..., because it takes 25 years for a cubic metre of CO-2 to cause 95% of all the Atmospheric Warming which it is going to achieve.
So, if some fool from any NATO Nation fires as much as a Rifle-Round at any Russian, tomorrow..., thus furnishing Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin with the ability to say that his poor poor pitiful little Russia has been attacked by a Nuclear-armed Coalition of 30 National Adversaries (and thus Russia has no chance of winning a Conventional War)...; and if Putin then launches a massive ("Defensive") Pre-Emptive Counter-Force "surPRISE !" Nuclear First Strike against All of NATO (and then sounds the Air Raid Warning Sirens, sending his population scurrying to take cover from whatever Retaliatory Strike NATO might manage, in the large public Civilian Blast/Fallout Shelters which the Soviets built in all their Cities - and which Russia began to clean out, repair, repaint, restock and make ready for use FIVE YEARS AGO....), likely counting on his population emerging from their Shelters in vastly better condition than NATO's totally unsheltered populations will find themselves in, after they've Bin-Nuked by surprise...
After which, while the entire Global Trading EcoGnomie will be instantly shut down, totally halting all Industrial-scale Atmospheric Emissions of Fossil Carbon..., and Nuclear-Winter Effect might perhaps possibly cause a 2 to 5 year halt to the already locked-in 25 years of further continued Global Warming...
Thus the inexorably increasingly intense and increasingly frequent Record-breaking Extreme Weather Events, which are ALREADY deconstructing EVERY EcoGnomie on Earth..., WILL Continue to grow worse - in parallel with the increase in Fossil Fuel use from 1997 up to Yesterday - and thus the Weather WILL grow worse until 2047 at the very least.
If, and only IF we nuke ourselves into totally ceasing to extract and burn Fossil Carbon, TOMORROW...; but otherwise the longer we continue to shit in the Sky, for our own greater personal individual SELFISH Convenience - then the further off into the Future that start-date for the final 25 years of Warming will be postponed.
And, of course, EVERY single bloody Death Machine discussed hereinat, in this breathless Pean of Praise for the shininess of the Weapons of Waaauugh(!), is TOTALLY dependant on the continued profligate burning of Fossil Carbon to fuel ALL such murderous folly.
So, in point of fact, this poor paranoid Hysteritic RUclipsr has wasted his whole life up to this moment, in learning a prodigious amount about all the silly shit which actually does NOT matter.
Australia owns and operates ZERO maritime Oil/Fuel Tankers, yet Oz burns 6 Shiploads of Refined Transport Fuel per DAY, and there are currently 47 Foreign-owned Tankers permanently enroute, afloat upon the Ocean, bringing Motion Lotion to Australia's otherwise utterly unsustainable EcoGnomie.
At any one moment Oz holds 21 to 27 days worth of Refined Transport Fuel on the Continent - including everything in the Underground Tanks of every Service Station, and the contents of every Tanker Truck on the Roads...
Not only does everything on every Shelf of every Shop get there in a Truck which runs on Diesel..., but no Diesel means the Bulldozers cannot push Coal into the Power Station - so the Grid cannot be stabilised by synchronising it's AC Sine-Waves...; and with no Gridpower then the Cash Register's Computer cannot tell the Bowser-Pump to fill the PoLice Cars, Ambulances, Fire Engines, SES Vehicles, or Army, Navy and Air Farce Vehicles.
Because..., the Liberal National Governments back in the 1970s CHOSE to outlaw ALL Government Departments (Local, State, and Federal) from having or maintaining ANY Bulk Fuel Storage Facilities - because the Beancounters claimed that it would be "more cost-efficient" to shunt the expenses of maintaining Fuel Storage Facilities onto the Private Sector.
Which means, in real life, that ALL the shiny deadly BangBANGbullshit discussed herewithin this Video is actually an excercise in Paranoid Ideation.
Preparing to fight the last War, at best...; and totally psychotic Denial of Climate Science, at worst.
Diversionary Therapy..., Basket-Weaving for nerdy Wannabe Warriorists ; something to occupy what passes for their minds, to prevent themselves from shitting themselves if ever they considered the FACTS of Anthropogenic Global Warming - which we have ALREADY locked into our (Karmic) Pipeline of unavoidable Future Threats to Human Civilisation, Culture, and perhaps Life On Earth.
So, pull your head out of the Military Xmas Catelogue..., and wake yourself up to the actual Reality ; which we face in our future.
Nothing in the Shops.
No Gridpower.
No Lights.
No Computers.
No Digital Money.
No PoLice.
No Traffic Lights.
No Road or Rail Repairs.
No Refrigeration.
No Trains, Planes or Automobiles.
No Trucks, Tractors or Generators.
No Reticulated Water or Sewage.
No Fuel for the Military.
No Fuel for the PoLice.
No Fuel for Firefighting.
No Fuel for Ambulances.
No Mobile Phones or WiFi.
No NUTHIN'....
And in the face of this imminent Reality..., people like y'self and this Content-Maker continue to distract y'selves by worrying about who might be able to shoot the Shit out of whom, next time the Politicians decide to stage a Waaauugh(!) in the hopes of retaining what "power" they like to pretend that they hold.
A Pox and a Plague be upon ALL their Houses...; and yet still they contrive to worry about Sport, Fashion, and Tourism....!
I personally know dozens of wild unfenced Swamp Wallabies and Grey Kangaroos with a better grip on, and appreciation of, Reality ; than ALL the Militarists and EcoGnomists and Political Scientists, on Earth, combined.
Such is life.
Have a good one...
Stay safe.
;-p
Ciao !
@@WarblesOnALot All those things you have stated in your easy is what leads to war.
@@adrianbalboa5353
G'day,
Thanks...
Actually,
"Waaauugh !"
is the vocalisation uttered by ALL Primates, whenever they are sufficiently angry, sufficiently hungry, or sufficiently frightened that the individual is prepared to kill (even members of its own Species) in order to try to make itself FEEL BETTER about the situation.
Any time you want to paint yourself as being a cranky starving terrified Killer-Monkey...; then get your "Waaauugh(!) Face" on...
Such is life,
Have a good one...
Stay safe.
;-p
Ciao !
@@WarblesOnALot The ADF has its own fuel reserves.
Oh boy I've been waiting for a new upload. Thanks Timmeh.
I am glad you touched on the fact America and Australia heavily share the same values. Values that are the bedrock of our societies and have allowed both countries to prosper. Moreover, those values reflect what should be the natural rights of all people. Values no doubt born from our parent country. You said it best but I will paraphrase, while we may fall short of those values, they are still ones we aspire to in earnest. The same cannot be said of the CCP.
As a Brit i am incredible embarrassed the our government was going to leave you hanging in 42. I like to think we would eventually got around to helping you.
To be fair, you lads had Hitler knocking at your door, it was do or die for the UK for awhile
I totally understand the Brits where up against it in WW2 and we're prioritising home survival. Saying that they should of been honest to the Australian government and leading us to believe that the Singapore strategy was viable. I recently read a book where our PM Curtin was basically ignored in London when he asked about the Singapore plan. Ultimately this caused us to look to the US for our defence.
@@filipinorutherford7818 Unfortunately we suffered from quite a bit of hubris regarding the Malayan campaign, the strength of Empire forces in Malaya and Japanese capabilities.
The issue was that Churchill did not consider Australia to be important. He said so in a secret speech to the House of Commons on 23 April 1942 on the aftermath of the fall of Singapore where he argued against both America and Britain basing significant forces here because they would be too far away from the more important theatres such as Europe and India.
Churchill thought it a good idea to pick over old wounds when he published the speech in Life Magazine in January 1946 to coincide with the start of the Australian commanded British Commonwealth Occupation Force in Japan. It caused quite a stir in Australia who asked the British why the Royal Commission into Singapore that Churchill had argued against in 1942 could not be held then.
Don’t be. It was never an option to put Australia ahead of defeating the Germans.
The AUKUS alliance and our willingness to fight for each other in a conventional war is something we should be proud of.
The part we should consider, however, is that the UK and US would trade Australia away to avoid a nuclear war. A truly terrible dilemma I hope to never see.
Yeah, this came up under my bell, and I accidentally clicked on it. No way am I watching this before Sunday afternoon, a pizza, and multiple tinnies. I cant wait!
I find it incredible how quickly things in the geopolitical sphere can change. In just the last couple of days since this video was released, the MQ-9B program has now been cancelled, and the PLA are signing agreements to establish basing on the Solomon Islands. This massively changes a lot of things, such as ballistic missile launch radiuses and a path of attack for PLA forces, who will now have a staging, refuelling and re supply point relatively nearby North East Australia for both ships and aircraft. The Australian 'north driven' A2AD approach is going to have to change, and capabilities such as JORN are going to need to focus a wider area, particularly the North East. Instead of targeting 'hardened' ADF infrastructure in the Far North, the PLA may now instead attack the many relatively 'soft' bases along the East Coast such as Brisbane. In the future I expect we will see the Chinese buying their way onto more of these Pacific Islands, which will give them a foothold outside the Second Island Chain and an unprecedented forward projection capability towards Australia.
Hypohestericalhistory is quite the Influencer
Certainly vid focuses on areas(most saw this coming) the wooden heads in roosel Hill got caught with panties around ankles again.
Why have adf they are demonstrably incompetent.
Out of control SAS in Afghanistan, naval craft with zero kinetic weapons, letting rumpelslitkens manage near neighbour relations wee are consistently out manoeuvred by any local indigenous poli.
Canberra(should hv stayed sheep out paddock) reduced to a regional town, ship fat arses off to mucking out stables up north with supporting fire capability. A 303.
I will point out that facilities in the Solomons will take a long time to build up
@@seanmac1793 agreed facilities are time consuming. Note: CCP builds hospitals, fully armed islands in weeks-months.
Cberra are permanently asleep or just bloody incompetent eg asis!
Orrstrala should remove bullet(ex cop bully) & up the game to barely competant. Won't mention unarmed patrol boats can't cruise for than 800kms or planned diesel subs that need to turn back having reached mid WA coast.
Absolute bloody disgrace. Feel sorry for wonderful folks who serve. Wooden heads in roossell Hill(common reference).
The Solomons just put them in range of more American weapons
Elephant in the room wasn't mentioned, US Navy is integrating LRASM missile into P8 platform, as well as 2,000-pound JDAM's , SDB, MALD etc, basically turning P8 into a bomber considering that P8 has 11 hardpoints (internal and external combined) based on 737NG-Extanded Range version and can be air refueled, ADF is also interested obviously, RAAF even bought 2 extra P8's. USN is also planning using JASSM-ER and JASSM-XR with 2000KM range from P8's, I don't see a reason why F35's would ever carry LRASM's. JASSM class missiles will be locally produced and ADF will leverage on economies of scale when it comes to maintaining them as cause cruise missiles are maintenance heavy, 90% of components are same on all versions of anti-ship anti surface versions and several countries are buying those.
Ballistic missiles are cheaper to maintain and can be acquired larger quantities and ADF is funding PRSM missile development, US Army is developing surface launched anti ship version of PRSM and latest tests exceeded 500KM range, US isn't limited with INF treaty so we should expect a lot in this domain really quickly
Great Video
Brilliant news but we really need a suitable Med/Long range Bomber……again
@@YaMomsOyster That's why, at some stage whilst we're procuring the other systems, we should look at buying the B21.
Where have you learned about this stuff? I dont know where to find real experts talking about Warfare
@@carltanner9065 AUKUS may or may not have opened the doors for B21's but I suppose US will not want to sell them to anyone for the same reason they didn't want to sell F22's, if they allowed F22 export Israel would have requested to buy them and Israelis are known for selling US military tech to China, Snowden files showed how desperately Australia wanted to buy Raptors but US wouldn't allow it because of Israel
Columbia class submarines and B21's will be like Ohio class subs, B2's and F22's today, crown jewels of technology that US wouldn't want to export but I'm sure Aus Government have requested to purchase them behind closed doors
@pootis They're giving us their nuclear submarine technology so maybe 🤔
Everyone get over here now! Hypo historical history just posted!
"Mum get the camera!"
Gotcha, I’m in.
Seriously. Stopped what I was doing, ran downstairs to grab a bottle of Laphroaig and a glass and told the Mrs I’d be busy for a while before locking myself in the office.
Yep, shortest one hour and forty three minutes that I’ve spent for some time, another awesome presentation.
Oops, 1 hour 47 minutes, doh.
The Chinese high power Tianbo multi beam Doppler OTHR regularly scans the Australian station particularly when US forces are visiting. The interference it kicks up on the HF bands is unmissable.
Chinese Communist Party embassy in Belgrade was flattened by US forces for similar reasons
Chinese Communist Party backs Putin and is supporting his economy in key areas while publically denouncing Putin's war crimes
It's Commie 101
I'm sure they'd be getting scanned plenty by JORN as well.
Timely discussion! The world is getting crazier by the day. Glad to see my friends in Australia taking things seriously and discussing defense options.
It's not that the world is getting crazier; it's just that the media's propensity for negativity has subsequently increased our awareness of the crazy.
Australia needs to take its future more seriously. Another rising Communist country has alarming intentions.
Dude your channel is superb. Bravo and thank you.
How to defend Australia. Be Americas staunchest ally. Coming from a jarheads perspective we will haul ass to help out Australian brothers. Those guys are great. And as long as we are still around Australia doesn’t need to worry about squat. You mess with them and we will have 2 MEU’s there within a few days, and within a week the 7th will be there. When I was in we didn’t screw around when it came to the Aussies. If they needed help we would have been chomping at the bit to get down there
Thankyou for the reassurances and vote of confidence my friend.
We will be there for the US if required....as always.
'Onya mate. Good to know we have friends.
@@kcharles8857 Its one of those things that everyone I served with knows. Hitting the Brits or the Aussies and we aren't gonna open a can of whoop ass on whomever did it, we are going to open the entire bar.
Appreciate the sentiment, however, couple of points from the video:
1. US and other allied forces would take time to mobilise.
2. The US forces could be better productively engaged in offensive actions, rather than having to "babysit" Australia.
3. The US has expressed a strong desire for it's allies to carry their weight - and Australian's feel compelled to do as much as possible in this regard.
It's clear that given the above points, Australia would theoretically be heavily involved in the Pacific theater from the very onset of hostilities. With actions being somewhat akin to a repeat of the Pacific theater in 1942. Australia should therefore be prepared to fight a defensive campaign, outnumbered, and with little support, until help can be brought to bear. Not only does this strategy directly serve Australia's own interests - but it would also makes it a valuable treaty partner - as an anchor for the South-East-Asian region.
@@BenjaminPitkin Regarding point 3 I do think the USA recognises that Australia and some other allies carry their own weight for their defence. I also think that the US and NATO could mobilise surprisingly quickly. The UK was able to dispatch a 127 ship task force 9,000 miles to the South Atlantic in 4 weeks, and the UK Armed Forces were probably less mobile and flexible then than they are now. Australia would only need to hold out for a few weeks before even the NATO nations were beginning to arrive in force and Australia is more than capable of doing that.
this is a very very good video to just listen to, you learn like 400 things every 20 minutes watching these
This is quickly becoming my favourite channel on RUclips, your videos are absolutely amazing and I sincerely hope that one day soon you are able to expand enough to produce more videos more quickly.
Saving this for tonight! Good stuff!
Wow I can’t get enough of these in-depth videos on the ADF very well put together I look forward to more
With a potential Chinese base being investigated in the Solomon Islands discussions of strategy such as this are all the more crucial to ensure the survival of Australia as a sovereign independent state.
The Solomons are going to become a pariah in Oceania due to this. Sadly I think the outcome of that will be a greater integration with the Chinese. Very, very bad for us.
Your not wrong, speeding things up would be good.
@@Piesy001 I don't blame SI. Australia since John Howard has behaved like a neo colonial bully, slashed aid funding, turned a tin ear to climate change and immigration issues and coerced pacific nations to host refugee gulags. Australia is not well liked in the Pacific, New Zealand has much greater prestige.
@@Piesy001 sanctions 😎
And a naval blockade of the Solomon Islands
@@megafauna8374 You don't blame the Solomon's for taking sides with the Chinese? Somehow you are blaming Australia for forcing them into the hands of the Chinese? Much better choice that for the islands. Well, that will show us!! I am sure they will be fine being crushed as a district of the ancestor-land, has worked well for the other countries that have been vacuumed up and incarcerated by them.
So I read your statement as what? John Howard left us 15 years ago, really longer than that, a big part of the islands, almost 50% would have been lucky to be old enough to vote or even remember Howard. Australia is the neo-colonial bully, even though China is putting to print just 'bought' a base there? I read a neo-colonial bully, but we have slashed aid funding that was well aid, not trying to dominate them politically in our favour as they went to the Chinese? hmmm... Pretty sure it has to be one or the other?
Coercing the Solomon's as a gulag, pretty sure you have the wrong islands there, nothing to do with them, it is a shitty policy but nothing to do with the islands. Are you insulting me by saying that Australia is not well liked like NZ. I am terribly offended. Go get'em all blacks....
Thank you for another thought provoking video.
You've convinced me. As a civvy I have no idea what the ADF really plans, but an awful lot of that capability could, I think, be generated within 18 months, and through private funding. Our critical issue, however, is not the PLA/CCP, but whoever is in command. Prior to the accession of Xi, and his purges, we had good relations with this major trading partner.
Remember, we had excellent relations with the Empire of Japan in 1938, when BHP chairman Essington Lewis toured the country to see how BHP steel was put to work. In my view, had we developed our aircraft manufacturing capacity by 1941 to the level it reached in 1943, Japan would have complied with Roosevelt's requests, ceased war in China, and the Pacific War would never have happened. Simply, 1000 modern aircraft in Singapore would have prevented any chance of its fall, thus denying access to the oil of the then Dutch East Indies. Japan would have undergone political change.
We built 5000 modern aircraft of all types - Beaufighter, Lancaster, Mosquito, Mustang - plus Boomerang close support aircraft, between 1943 and 1946.
If we build a credible threat to CCP access to oil - and we can - while focusing on Xi, not China, we could prevent a hideous conflict. The 2 stages would be area denial for shipping and political disintegration of Mini-Mao. The latter, of course, is not military, but is equally as important for the lives and happiness of Australians, Chinese, and all the people's of our region.
Looking forward to this. Love your work!
I'm 2 minutes in and can't wait to listen to the rest. Love your videos bud
Legit felt excited to see you had a new video. Deliberately held off watching it until I could focus all my attention on it. Great work :-)
Great presentation as usual, but as an Indonesian, I think our military will not sit down just let the Chinese military establish FOB on our island so easily. Our new defense minister has poured considerable money into our defense in recent years to buy new warships, Fighter, SAM, and anti-ship missile. although our nation still keeps our foreign policy "neutral", but in case of Chinese violation of our sovereignty we will not stand down and fight for our freedom and maybe join the alliance with US and Australia if the Chinese forced us to do so.
Thanks for the insight. As an Australian I think Indonesian security is our security, and I want Indonesian security to be the best it can be. Relations, as neighbours, is always very important to us. It’s unfortunate Indonesia is neutral at the moment but understandable. Demographics mean Indonesia will be a powerful friend and ally and I think a more assertive Indonesian stance will only strengthen the region. Peace ✌️
I like think Indonesians are, just like Australians and just want to be left alone in peace. But as the saying goes "if you want peace then prepare for war".
Excellent video loaded with content and educational, thank you for your time and energy in making this.
Please keep up the great work you do producing these videos. In my humble opinion they are extremely insightful, well researched and poignant. Thank you.
What a wonderful video. Comprehensive, puts things in context. I love your channel.
Babe wake up, Dr Hypo uploaded
Utterly amazing how much info gets squeezed into these videos.
Just finished the anti-ship missle and am now starting this. You're killin it! Thank you, and I'll be sure to watch the others.
Thanks mate 38min in and everything else on hold VERY enlightening thanks again.
Great presentation. Please consider the recent news regarding the Solomon Islands
Another banger! absolutely fantastic. Thank you for the analysis and production.
This is such a high quality analysis; put together very well. You've earned another subscriber. Cheers
Glorious bastard does it again!
Very interesting and informative as always! Your videos are always appreciated.
Man what a great video. Please keep the incredible work up. Peace and Love to you my friend.
One point regarding Chinese bases outside China is that they can buy them as civil infrastructures and be quickly upgraded for military use. Not for long term occupation but as stepping stones for bigger prizes. Solomon Islands looks likely to let China build a naval base and house security forces there (The Sydney Morning Herald 25 Mar 2022) if a counter offer is not made by Aus/US. The Island of Kiribati should also be looked at and Fiji has a strong relationship with China. In regarding Chinese military strategies we should not view view the Chinese military as conducting a conventional war. For example they do not need to transport a support force to maintain or operate equipment. Chinese citizen could be embedded in a country close to targeted nation (such as Solomon's/Fiji) working in civilian roles that have a capacity to complement military operations (mechanic/doctor/tech/translators) or be embedded in a target country. On a side note civilian shipping can be used to move missile assets close to our navel units and sink the fleet. I thought December 2019 was the time China would have a shot. With most ADF service personal on holidays, bases such as Williamstown or over the horizon assets can easily be overrun and demolished. Bulldozers can create a lot of havoc. Just a thought.
The Solomon Island government, in a statement being shared on social media, confirmed it was working on “diversifying” its security partnerships, with China, and the agreement would include a “development dimension”.
A draft document shows agreement would allow Solomon Islands to request support from China’s “police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces” to maintain social order and provide humanitarian assistance.
“China may, according to its own need and with the consent of Solomon Islands, make ship visits, carry out logistical replenishment in, and have stopover and transition in Solomon Islands, and the relevant forces of China can be used to protect the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects in Solomon Islands.”
@@barrypope4358 1942 all over again...
Third Naval Battle of Guadalcanal, anybody?
No need for conspiracies and subterfuge. There is really going to be zero resistance from any of the island nations if China rolls in with a large carrier group and take over their ports as a temporary naval base or hopping point. PNG and Solomons are the most likely destination, all deep water ports are likely. China will overwhelm this island states in an hour. China has 20+ LPD and LHD beside the 3 carrier and 8 055 destroyer. No need to complicate things with civilian inserts, just cart them in on the LPDs or LHDs. China has another 100+ maritime marine ships that are corvette and frigate size to transport personal.
@@olderchin1558 we need to set up our own forward bases to base air and naval forces
@@captain61games49 The idea of forward bases is useful for frightening weak opponents. Just like the Chinese bases in the Spratly islands, they last about 24 hrs after the start of a major conflict between superpowers.
Great video. Thought provoking content. Thank you!
As a Finnish reservist and taxpayer I advice Australia to utilise the seas to the max defence wise. It is the cheapest way to be safe. Finland used 2% of GDP for defence already before Russia invaded Ukraine, soon more. 80% of young men must serve in the FDF. Mandatory bomb shelters make apartments more expensive.
Well the Russians know what they're in for if they have a go at Finland lol
Huge props to Finland. I can’t imagine how living with the threat (and actuality) of invasion has been. It’s interesting that our Australian army has dominated our cultural interest but naval/air forces have not. Agree with your prescription of naval focus
Keep being awesome hypo!
Very well done! Look forward to your future work.
Fuck yeah my favorite Aussie defense youtuber.
Thank you for this well considered and thought provoking video!
Great video, detailed analysis and presented with clarity.
Another excellent, great discussion points. Thanks so much for your very detailed analysis and thoughts on strategic planning. A lot of good ideas about co-operative missile systems, makes sense to limit the amount of missiles used between services so long as they remain useful for each service. I seem to remember hearing some missile systems will be built locally, that would be very sensible in the case of a protracted battle where lines of resupply will be affected.
Excellent stuff as usual. If you are doing any sort of related follow-up I'd be interested in any of the following concepts:
(i) Dispersion as defence (e.g. using suitable civilian airfields as dispersion assets).
(ii) Defence of the 'North East Passage' - The Phillipines - Northern New Guinea - Solomons "axis of access to the Eastern seaboard".
(iii) Adding a littoral battalion within each of 1, 3 and 7 Brigades.
(iv) Hardening 2 Div and its continental / coastal expeditionary capability.
(v) Deepening the Army with a 3rd Division of dispersed reserve local 'territorial' units; with a capability for immediate local defence against incursion, and to support the community from disruption during military action or civil disasters (which probably means a light infantry, reconnaissance, engineer, transport and sigs emphasis).
Given the moves that China is making moves to set up a base in the Solomon Islands, the second point becomes a bit than a hypothetical issue.
@@LukeBunyip Yes, my thoughts exactly. The significance of geography doesn't change that much; it just drifts, erodes and only occasionally erupts.
Every video, pure quality
You always choose the best upload times
Loving it
Fascinating video, many thanks
I do write it my commenting as do I watched a video and yours seemed to address almost every thing did I think of and mention! EXCELLENT AND INFORMATIVED VIDEO !!
Awesome, again!
Its about time someone uploaded a video about our defence forces that's easy to understand and puts us at ease. As Aussies we beat up on our forces and joke around about how useless we are. I.e how bad our subs are. LMAO. But to be honest we have brilliant defences. And even better allies. I love my country and I know that we will Never go under.
🤠🤠🤠
Feel like all over the West people consistently underestimate their own armed forces and overestimate the abilities of Russia and China.
In the past, you’ve made an argument for an expansion of the RAAF. With the upcoming retirement of the US B-1Bs in the 2030s as the B-21s come on line, what do you think of Australia picking up a squadron or two (8-12)? In my opinion, they seam like a near perfect match for RAAF needs, both in terms of the platform’s inherent characteristics and the roles it currently is suited to fill. On the characteristics, it is the cheapest strategic bomber to run in the us military, the ability to operate from non-ideal bases (at least in strategic bomber terms), long range, and mid-threat operating ability seams like a winning package for Australia.
I think they would also be quite useful, providing a drastic increase in capability in all 3 of the ADF’s major strategic emphasis areas. In supporting global deployments, well the US has been using them to bomb the shit out of terrorists for almost 20 years. This capability would also be important in the second major area of emphasis, providing stability in the region. These aircraft, with their long ranges and loiter times are excellent ground support aircraft. Given their large airframe and crew, they can even be used to gather intelligence. Finally, in a high end war, they could be used for far more than closing the straight of Malacca. I could see them being used as a sort of modern Backfire bomber, fast, long range with lots of ordinance. They could be used not just as a large missile carrier, but to strike from the backside, allowing the RAAF to execute multi-vector attacks at much greater ranges with much less tanker support.
Finally, they could probably be secured at a real discount, given that they would be second hand. I feel reasonably confident that the US would much rather have some of the Bonehands flying for a reliable ally than sitting in a boneyard.
Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
In theory a good idea but given their age and complexity very expensive to maintain for a small power such as Australia given that parts would be dwindling as well, part of the reason to retire such platforms is to cannibalise them for parts to keep existing platforms flying because parts for them are no longer being made, fleet retirement usually comes when the cost and ability to keep them flying starts to become a drain on valuable resources needed elsewhere, if a country like the US with it's huge military budget and manpower isn't going to keep them flying Australia would be hard pressed to do the same with our limitations.
We be better off buying into or leasing the B-21 if we going to go the strategic bomber direction.
The B-1B’s are nearing the end of their operational lives. Their airframes are showing significant fatigue especially after the higher intensity operations during Afghanistan. The USAF is having to strip them down and rebuild them regularly just to keep them airworthy. In fact they have been pushing to retire the full fleet early but congress has blocked that until the B-21 is operational.
The B-21 on the other would be an excellent option should the US permit export. The establishment of AUKUS has made that more likely. 5-10 B-21s would be a significant capability and deterrent
@@jeffa3896 Neither option is likely at all to be completely honest.
1. The B21 is slated to cost 0.5 Billion USD per airframe
2. The existence of AUKUS is not an indicator that they hand over or sell us their best technology. If they were never willing to sell F-22s to anyone, why would that change now.
3. Just because the B-1 is being retired and (maybe) available for purchase doesn't mean we have to aquire it. By the same logic, just because we could go one step further and get its sucessor, the b-21, doesn't mean that is a good option either. There are a myriad of options available to us that don't involve bombers. We could operate F-35Bs off the canbera class ship or develop a domestic semi-stealthy long range drone system of our own. If we wanted we could operate long range cruise missiles from Navy Ships and have Global Hawks operated by the airforce provide ISR and targeting capability. The Tomahawk has an approximate range of 1000km and only costs a few million per missile.
B-1 would be great for Australia but unfortunately the existing aircraft are worn out from heavy use over the last few decades. If India and the US chose to cooperate on a direct successor supersonic bomber to the B-1, Australia could jump in with a small order. But beyond the means of Australia to order without partners.
F-15EX could to some extent be an alternative. 36 F-15EX could complement F-35s with long range strikes of significant firepower. A group of F-15EX could drop dozens of LRASM on a hostile fleet from stand off range.
This is extremely enlightening. I knew the ADF had great capability, but I wasn’t exactly up to speed at just how well the ADF is holding down the southern flank. Along with the planned or proposed upgrades and additions, the alliance between the US and ADF, we stand a fighting chance at defeating the PLA in a full scale all out conflict.
Think we will see substantial defence R and D between Australia and the US under AUKUS. Even more than in the past.
Very interesting discussion. You picked quite a good time to upload this too. The budget is scheduled to be handed down on the 29th of March (at least according to the sitting parliament calendar) with the election to be called by shortly after. I'll make sure to keep an eye out for any defence announcements that point towards A2/AD implementation. Although with the past spree of other planned acquisitions - I'm looking at you Abrams - my hunch is there isn't enough cash to go around to get us a new set of satellites, missiles and wide-area missile defence systems.
I think they still have a bit in the kitty after 30 years of continuous growth and AAA credit rating.
albanese labor slashed Defence Force budget to lowest level since 1938
Incumbents Hastie et Al increased ADF investment to 2.1 %
albanese then calls government Defence Force "warmongers"
albanese rainbow tea parties and pink fingernails is not an investment it's a joke
IMPRESSIVE production young man!!!
Now that ive discovered you, i think im never going to go back to watching Binkov's battleground's defense videos
Superb and well considered analysis!
As HHH mentions, most of the northern Aus bases are not active and have no aircraft. Activation would involve aircraft from Williamtown deploying in a crisis. If CCP are striking first, this would likely include a pre-emptive hit on Williamtown perhaps via submarine launched missile. We could lose the bulk of our F35's in one operation and the grand plan would be severely hobbled. We need missile defence for all our active bases throughout Australia not just those in the North.
The smaller the military compaired to it's adversary the more they benifit from distributing it's assets.
It would make more sense to have many smaller airbases over a few large airbases.
If Australia can't defend against Chinese subs they have to assume that none of their costal bases are safe. Additionally china will have hypersonic glide missles which will be able to reach anywhere in Australia and it is currently not possible to shoot them down.
Don't put all you eggs in one basket.
Thank you alot of food for thought
Terrific synopsis, you sir have a talent!
I was watching the footy until I saw the notification. Not watching the footy anymore.
Excellent analysis mate.
Remarkable content, thank you.
Excellent video full of interesting and useful data Thank You !
What do you think of equipping either Lord Howe and/ or Norfolk Island with large missile defence systems and radar bases? Another, often , overlooked island that could be used is Willis Island .Christmas’s Island could also be used as a forward missile base and radar site. If we are shackled to these “assets” we may as well use them. I really enjoyed your overview of the current situation . Thank you.
I agree if you have the islands may aswell use them.
A very well put together presentation.
Awesome work mate.
I was waiting for this. More modern stuff please
Solid work mate, crack on.
Love ya work bud. Thanks for investing all this time.
Excellent
well done yet again
Really enjoyed this video, are you planning any Q&A for this video on TikTok or twitch ?
Just had a few questions on the cost and shelf life of the weapons proposed
Very professional and detailed with military type analysis . Well done . Ian Qld Australia
informative as always! Any chance of an analysis of Japanese role and strategy in the Pacifc?
You do a wonderful job.
Thanks!
You nailed it dude.
My man just wrote a whole IPB and put it on youtube. This is great man, keep it up.
Amazing video!
Great treatise & excellent analysis of the ADF, it's capabilities, the current threat environment & possible avenues for advancement. Kudos to you sir. PS If you are ever bored with nothing to do, an account of the advance on & battle for Wewak which culminated in the surrender of Japanese forces in New Guinea by Gen Adachi at Wom Point, would be awesome!
Investment is the difference
Incumbents Hastie increased ADF budget to %2.1 GDP since 2013
albanese labor slashed ADF budget to lowest level since 1938
First Class analysis..
Excellent video. Packed full of information.
Btw, Vigilare was renamed Wakulda a couple of years ago.
Another high quality, thoughtful production from this channel. This video highlights the failures of our institutions, specifically the ABC, to give detailed insight regarding our national interest. Well done.
Fantastic as usual, very informative, both you, Jim Molan & Dutton are doing a wonderful job!
Yeah Dutton finally has a job he's suited for.
Without a doubt, the best new school Oceanic martial historian around. thank u for everything mate. Cheers from the States. I can't speak for everyone in America, but so help me god, I will fly my ass down to ya'll to help defend you guys from any threat. Long live AUKUS, long live our comradery. 🤝
Thanks mate! It appears like ANZUS has fallen by the wayside as NZ don't want to invest in their defence and instead will rely on Australia for protection. And, of course, they criticise us at every opportunity. AUKUS is the future of Australia's defence.
Excellent video, I hope the ADF is taking note.
Fantastic demonstration, thank you. 🇨🇦 Veteran.
Really interesting documentary
I liked this one. Thanks.
Very interesting I agree as from UK mil I knew how we like the US are turning to the east. But this told me so much I didn’t know. Between this and Perun’s channel you are breaking the crocodile Dundee stereotype hahahaha. Brilliant work thank you
The real Crocodile Dundee was murdered by the Australian government.
You have no idea how much we Aussies want to break that stereotype. It's sometimes hard to be taken seriously, or even seen as being smart and capable, when you have our accent. It isn't as bad in the UK as it is in North America. We have achieved so much for such a small country, especially our military, but we'll always be seen as a bit inferior, a bit uneducated.
Babe wake up, H^3 just posted a nearly 2 hour video!
thanks
Excellent presentation but a key takeaway, for me anyway was that JORN being a large static system with only 2 (well 3 in a pinch) emitters could perhaps potentially be vulnerable to say a submarine launched long range cruise missile or drone attack or just an ICBM equipped with a large conventional warhead of some sort.
Thanks for all your excellent content. I would be interested in a video on the how the Russia Ukraine war effects the geopolitics of the Pacific, including the impacts of the European war on a potential China Taiwan conflict. What are the impacts of AUKUS and the China PNG alliance on an A2AD strategy for Australia?
great Report and look forward to the ADF development of their long term commitments into the future providing solutions based offence that best suit current and future domains providing confidence in the region that deters by building better relationships. Unfortunately that starts with adjustment ability to meet public / private concerns while servicing the rigorous demands of an ever changing battlefield. The current commercial concerns are more likely to come from inside our protective zones by means of subversion over invasion