I'm sorry to hear that, here in the U.S., our country's leadership is dominated by corporate interests and the military industrial complex. Every country has its problems, I guess. From one little guy to another I wish you the best!
Day 1: "Why Kamala is surging" Day 2: "Why Kamala’s polls are dipping" Day 3: "Why post-debate polls look pretty great for Kamala" Day 4: "Polls tank: is this the end for Kamala?" Day 5: "Big surge for Kamala: what next?" Seriously, following these news shorts never ceases to be funny. X)
Media including youtuber take themself much too important. Most voters stay with their opinion over years. It only depend who can motivate the own follower better to go voting.
Why would they support a bill that wouldn't solve the issue at hand? It's like if I made a bill and called it 'The Super Awesome Make Everyone Rich Act 2024' and it actually just drains your bank account and then get mad when you vote against it. The Democrats understand that if they truly fixed immigration issues then they would never win another election again.
To play devil's advocate, what's the point of claiming a change when you know that bills will be blocked too? Out of the whole debate that was a legit point (maybe the only legit point brought up) against Kamala, she claims things she can't get passed.
It IS insane, what are you talking about man? Get real. There's no proof of this apart from the s*** you see in Facebook that's totally not been AI'd to death. And the false claims people make. It's all one confirmation bias after another.
Saying that Trump's political career was made by debates isn't necessarily wrong but using a clip of his debate against Clinton when making that statement is silly when it was widely perceived she won her debates against him. Should've used a clip from a Republican Primary debate
Clinton won, but Trump came out of them looking pretty good, even presidential, as some of the talking heads said. Before that people wondered if he was just all show no substance as with the primary but with Clinton he was able to stay on policy for a bit and really fired up the gop.
Are you insane? Trump demolished her in those debates. He had far better answers, far better zingers and overall showed her as a robotic candidate. Who says Clinton won? She got wrecked
Clinton probably would have won if a) she had been a more likable person, and more importantly b) if it hadn't been for the e-mail affair and smear campaign that conveniently happened just before election day. It's also noteworthy that pollsters weren't taking into account several factors in the past, therefore having Clinton poll far ahead of Trump making many Democratic voters complacent.
@@MrBritishComedyAll true points. I think another aspect is Clinton's name, in a context where the US was getting sick and tired of the establishment, garden-variety politicians and ruling-class Washington dynasties. Clinton may have won the debate in substance, but Trump won in presence. He came out looking like a strongman, a figher, a champion of the American people. And that's exactly what people wanted to see.
I don’t know how debates change voting patterns, but they definitely change history. Despite being an incredibly close race, the election of 1960 is really only remembered for one thing, that debate. And that legacy changed how candidates campaigned and debated completely.
Neither do, if you just look at the correlations historically (which obviously has been done). Allan Lichtman’s predictive model on the other hand.. scary accurate.
@@TheMrJoltz Sure, but Male representation isn’t that high in American elections. Because of this, a good pollster is supposed to take that into account with who they pick for polling. Considering the gender divide is maybe the biggest difference this election, with polls showing double digit leads for Trump among men and double digit leads for Harris among women, with an election far more likely to be closer to 50/50 than 70/30, I hope that is considered in weighting the poll.
I just don't get how anyone can listen to Trump and Vance and say ... yeah, that's who I want running things. Even if you don't like Kamala, why would you vote for an 80 y/o with the temperament of a toddler into office ... with the chance of him being succeeded by man who was probably rooting for Gilead in Handmaid's Tale.
One would assume for the same reason that some people stood by Biden until the bitter end. People are partisan and a candidate's qualities as a human are unimportant to a lot of people
Becausenthey are afraid that Kamala will deprive them of all their rights or something. Propaganda. Cant blame them, if you lived in their media bubble you would be the same.
Love TLDR news, always have, but I think they fell to the media hype around Kamala's diminishing numbers around September. I know they have mentioned RFK Jr.'s leaving but just in passing. It really does look that that had more impact than a true change in people's feeling or a waning of Kamala's popularity, you can clearly see it in the graph they put up
Yeah I kind of had a double take when I saw the title and intro. State specific polling didn’t seem to be waning at all, and her national lead was pretty consistent. So idk why they’ve taken the line she was struggling
@@keirlamont2806 they have done this for a couple of weeks. I think in part is because most analysts expected her rise to falter eventually and they keep wanting to point out when it happens. I feel it is a bit irresponsible and lazy in the analysis.
@@santiagomolinatorresarpi8554 also feel it lacks the pretty vital perspective that in a campist presidential election, a national poll lead of even 2-3% is pretty healthy, the fact they’ve labelled her being at 5% as barely a recovery feels like a lack of perspective on the race
Honestly, not sure why people act like Nate Silver is some amazing predictor and gets to decide what the polls say. He's had a couple of lucky elections, but over all his accuracy sits around the same level as Punxsutawney Phil.
My issue with the reporting isn’t so much that they are using his forecast, but that TLDR is treating him like he’s the only forecaster. And failing to comment on aspects like house effects and poll taker reliability robs listeners of context. Like the recent poll published in the Daily Mail. It reports that Harris is up nationally by 1 point, but before this, it has never had her ahead of trump, so that’s a decent shift. It just feels like TLDR is cheery-picking polls to make the race look more desperate.
It's pretty embarrassing actually. Those are simple little mistakes that could have been caught by 2 editors watching the final video before uploading.
You should have played Eating the Dogs and Cats clip. It never fails to get a laugh. But seriously, you know it is f'ed up when that didn't put the final nail in the coffin, which looks more like a Porcupine.
@@HobokenSquatCobblerwhat it sounds like is you’re covering your ears and closing your eyes. You can’t see it so clearly it isn’t happening. I’ve seen dozens of videos
@@cpttankerjoe You've seen videos of people REPORTING/CLAIMING this, or seen videos showing actual physical EVIDENCE of Haitians eating pets, etc? If the latter, then provide some search string or clues how to find them. I know YT won't let you post a link. I've seen nothing other than claims, and the photos and one video everyone claims are proof but in fact are not. I legitimately want to see proof if it exists.
Don't get overconfident people. This is going to a battle right through the finish line. It's as close as close can be. Get out and fuckin' vote. Just do it. And get everyone you know to do it. It really matters. Democracy is on the line here, and that's no joke. It's as serious as it can be.
Silver's modelling is reasonable. He founded 538 before he sold it to ABC. His modelling got only one state (Indiana) wrong in the 2008 election and he got all 50 states right in the 2012 election. Although he got the Clinton prediction wrong for the 2016 election, he was less bullish on Clinton than many.
Do you blame him? The moderators didn't fact check Harris at all. And then after the debate ABC and others writes an article showing all the lies that Harris stated. Even I spotted some during the debate. If that is how debates are ran with the moderators being biase then what is the point?
@@Gathamphetamine Nate SIlver now works for Polymarket. The same betting site that is funded by Peter Thiel....the billionaire that bankrolls JD Vance.
Republicans will ask why she didn't do it sooner, because they don't actually understand how the govt works. The vice president has exactly 2 jobs: president of the senate and the tie breaker vote. The vice president has no real policy role and before Teddy: it's where they sent politicians to retire
They should instead ask trump why he asked republicans to vote no on the border bill proposed. If they feel like asking questions. Also trump didn't do anything about the border while in office, other than put children in cages. They should ask him why those questions lmao.
Sometimes the administration delegates a certain responsibility to the VP. Immigration was delegated to Harris by Biden. This was around the same time when you could read in the news that deportations skyrocketed. I think Harris aimed to focus on the root causes but just delayed the problem by a few years as she neglected the border and people just keep flowing into the country
@@dogman615 you want to elaborate on why you think she didn't? She got all the delegates and was chosen by the party. The dem voters didn't want Biden and their voices were heard. I'd call that pretty democratic.
@@dogman615 Regardless of "earning" a spot, trump cant even constitutionally be president again. If the SC was not breaking their oaths to run interference for him, he wouldnt even be on the ballot. Which the dems should use, but lack the spine to do so.
@@benbecker1282 This number is so comically wrong I don't even know where to begin. So instead I'll just point out that there were only 6 million *encounters* in the past 3 years, let alone people actually getting past.
@@TheFinalChaptersWow! I was going to say you have your head in the sand, but I'm thinking more like up your a$$! That's OK, we will see the final chapter in November when Trump wins the election.
@@StarMan_2018 Trump specifically conditioned it on having peak sycophancy hosts only - the Jesse Waters type opinion clowns. Trump refused to do it with any Fox “hard news” host like Bret Baier.
@@friendlyotaku9525 lmao, not only is he's right, he forgot to mention that about 3/4ths of money in the bill was to be sent to israel and ukraine. that was a foreign aid bill with border stuff sprinkled in so the democrats could cry about it for the election
Nate Silver doesn't have a crystal ball. He's much more accurate than most poll aggregators. And frankly people should be considering this a very close race, because it is. Turnout will decide who wins and who loses, and polls can't predict that.
@@dubliam8064 lol yes he was. Stop lying. He had Biden with an 89% chance of winning the electoral college and even guessed Georgia correctly giving Biden a 58% chance of winning which is something no other poll aggregator or election predictors guessed.
On that YouGov MRP poll something that poll also found was around 80% of the respondents had already decided who they were going to vote for and had not changed or been swayed throughout the electoral period.
As flawed as the Democrats are, as a European it still amazes me (in a bad way) how *close* this race is. After the debate, him saying those crazy things and being an absolute joke ("old man yelling at clouds" meme), he's still polling at 45%. It's ridiculous. I know that when there's only two options / parties to vote for, if you're a conservative, no matter what the main candidate says or does, you're still probably going to vote conservative. But it's getting to insane amounts of ridiculous (more than in 2016 and 2020), and almost half of the country still supports that. lol And that's without taking into account the Electoral College, which will definitely help Donald, even if he loses by 5-8M votes (again). Still, receiving 45% of the total vote, for such a bad candidate should make people reconsider what are they doing with their life.
As a European you should also understand that your opinion in their election is based off your ignorant view of it. You dont actually live there so you’ll never understand what their values are.
Even 5 people asked CAN BE CALLED A POLL!!! Vote on what's affecting you and your family everyday, and not what the media says about your feelings or what you should be feeling.
They are in fact eating pets. It just so happens the video everyone was pointing to wasn't for Springfield, it was from a town 30 minutes away from Springfield. Not really much of a "check mate". Also you can call abortion centers in just about any blue state and have no problem being scheduled for an 8th or 9th month abortion. You can even find video of the former governor of Virginia advocating for "post birth" abortions.
@@govols1995 actually it was a response to the question over what would happen if a mother delivered a child that was not viable (i.e., if the child was stillborn), and the governor responded, "The infant would be delivered, the infant would be kept comfortable, the infant would be resuscitated if that’s what the mother and the family desired. And then a discussion would ensue between the physicians and the mother".
@@govols1995 not a single state does that, and nope, Haitians are not eating pets. The mayor and local officials have stated that there is ZERO evidence of your baseless claims, and about the incident you re speaking the woman wasn’t even Haitian, she was a lifelong resident of canton, Ohio. And not a single state does post birth abortions.
Vote blue for a continuation of allowing millions of unvetted illegal immigrants into this country, historic inflation crisis, record high consumer debt, record high gas prices in all 50 states, terrorists being released into this country, a guaranteed WW3, illegal immigrants being prioritized over US citizens and homeless veterans, violent crime skyrocketing, record low test scores for kids K-12, the allowing of men to compete in women's sports and enter women's restrooms and locker rooms, the promotion of gender confusion and sexual degeneracy, the promotion of children being able to have irreversible gender reassignment surgeries that will mutilate their bodies, etc, etc, etc
Great analysis! Just a small note for TLDR, Pennsylvania is abbreviated "PA," not "PE" and Georgia is abbreviated "GA," not "GE." Sorry to be nitpicky, but thought you should know (if you see this) for future posts.
Immigration isn't her weak spot, she just needs to keep talking about how trump killed the bipartisan immigration bill. Also she would do well to visit the border if she hasn't
Every spot is her weak spot. She has no plan, no charisma, no ability to speak candidly, nothing. She was the most unpopular veep by public opinion and was parachuted into her current position without having to win any contests. As to the border deal, the deal was simply designed to guarantee a specific high rate of illegal immigration and more guards would've been deployed to speed up the process under the guise of legitimacy. Why would Republicans agree to that?
How can it have saved her when she used it to launch her campaign?? Her polling started from -6% behind, to +5 ahead? Seriously, TLDR have got their lines twisted here.
Except the numbers they use here, come from one of the only guys who correctly predicted 2016. + Many pollsters learned their lessons and include the Trump effect in their models now
Hillary was a much less charismatic and liked character with much more "history." I don't think secret cables about her e-mails will be dropped two days out from the election. Plus, Trump was an unknown entity as a politician. Some people hoped he'd just be a bumbling incompetent. Now they know he is malicious, corrupt and reckless. Of the 80 million people who voted for Biden, many of them weren't necessarily fans of his, but instead, haters of Trump. Hillary was still favoured but people didn't like her enough or dislike Trump enough to actually vote for her.
On one hand, nice. On the other, it's both quite tiresome and embarrassing that you have to remind people every two weeks who one of the candidates is otherwise they forget and let him climb up the polls again.
I want to make sure people know Nate silver has been widely discredited among the polling community for making some very questionable decisions regarding what polls to include as well as not disclosing enough information about his model. I would definitely look elsewhere for a good polling aggregator.
Nate Silver's record speaks for itself. 49/50 in 2008, 50/50 in 2012, 48/50 in 2020 and he gave Trump a better chance in 2016 than almost everyone else.
Sounds like cope on your part. And Nate isnt the only one showing good poll numbers for Trump. There are a lot of fundamentals that still favor him, like early mail-in ballot numbers out of the swing states and party registration numbers. Not to mention how mainstream polls often undercount Trump's support during a presidential year.
I'm sorry. I wish you were right. UK elected BoJo. France lets Le Pen get closer every year. Argentina elected Milei. Brazil elected Bolsonaro. Italy speaks for itself. India elected Modi. Israel elected Netanyahu. Australia elected Scotty Morrison. All just from the top of my head in the last decade, not counting fake elections like Putin. Not all as bad as Trump, not all elected. But still all considered viable candidates. The struggle to protect and grow our democracies is eternal, no one is immune to propaganda, and all nations are vulnerable to strongmen, fascists, and dictators
France is not a Democratic nation? LePen is the 2nd place winner in the last couple Presidential elections. AfD is rising in Germany. Canadan Conservatives looks likely to win next election, and the Canadans I have interacted with compares Povillier with Trump.
@@threecards333 LePen would ahve to have more than 50% votes to ever be in power, as absolutely noone is willing to form a coalition with her. AFD - the same story, it did well in two lands and suddenly it's a big deal worldwide, even though they won't even enter the government of those lands thanks to how coalitions work.
This is like when people say a referee is corrupt because they don't like a few calls they make. Silver got 49/50 in 2008, 50/50 in 2012 and 48/50 in 2020. 2016 his model gave Trump a better chance than almost everyone else. His model is more reliable than almost everyone else.
@@offtodamoon I am not arguing he wasnt good in the past. I am arguing that him getting payed by peter thiel as an advisor to polymarket changed his biases. This is a close election, but he is one of the only people/organizations who gives trump a better chance at winning, especially a 20% higher one. Meanwhile at 538, still using his old model, Harris holds the advantage.
You remember how after 2016 everyone asked "How did Hillary lose???" and then someone pointed out that she never, not once went to Michigan. Okay, well when you put such emphasis on PA being the +90% decider that is ignoring ALL of the other States. Right here in your map you have NC being Red when right now it is Grey. I saw someone else do ME as a split, but why? Right now it is leaning full Blue. But again, Polls are a snapshot in time. We have not even gotten to the October surprise yet. And that is why I love the Harris campaign, they did not make me pay attn to election politics for 2.5years, they only asked for total 4mo of attention, big W there.
@@matejmoravek4580 She doesn’t have constitutional authority for anything outside of assuming the role of president in event president is not able to perform duties, preside over the senate in tie breaker votes. Outside of that a VP role is largely ineffective. Surely they can advise and be the president assistant but not much they do outside of that
@@matejmoravek4580 But… She… aint… the … damn… president… that’s not how things work. There’s nothing that she can do that would not be immediately overwritten by Biden. She can advise policy positions. But when it comes to exercising executive powers there’s nothing De facto about it. VP is a role that largely gets overhyped. Hell the Speaker of the House service wise does 10 times more than a VP do
Harris actually made a good point on the debate about both economics and immigration, and Trump is the one who didn't answer properly there. So these are no longer weak spots for Harris. I think Trump no longer relies on any actual strengths, but rather on people who strongly believe in him.
@@lovly2cu725 Are you suggesting that a Kamala victory would hinder any or all of those things? What freedom do you expect to lose or become limited on? Are you one of those people that calls anything that they don't like "communism"?
Alternative. Just go vote. It doesn't matter who you vote for just that you go vote. People fought and died for the right, no need to let it go unused.
@@RushOrbitanyone with a rationale brain fears collectivism and communism. Anyone who promises utopia or government aid is trying to push authoritarianism. As Reagan said, scariest words are “I’m from the government and here to help” Read a book about the Bolshevik’s. Cause they’re literally leftists of today.
Stay focused. Do not get complacent. Vote Blue, vote Harris-Walz. Remember the shock of Trump’s 2016 win, his mishandling of COVID, and the horror of the January 6 insurrection. Your vote matters!
@@mathewpt4478 Inflation caused by Trump with his utterly incompetent handling of Covid, and BROUGHT DOWN by Biden? (Not to forget the manufacturing slump under Trump, the tariffs that increased prices and caused jobs losses, the trade wars he started with countries that are supposed to be America's allies (and which thus only benefited America's enemies), the $8 TRILLION he added to the national debt, the tax cuts that mostly benefited the already-wealthy, the investment he directed towards sunset industries, etc. etc.) On Ukraine, Biden has been if anything too careful and not bold enough, but Trump would just straight up serve Ukraine on a platter to Putin (probably to try and get a Trump Tower in Moscow). Anyone who supports democracy, the western values, and the rule of law, supports Ukraine, and Harris is *clearly* the right choice to advance that - as opposed to the serial rapist, serial fraud, serial felon, who kisses the boots of dictators. (Like how he trusted Putin's word - like either a complete moron or someone bought by Russia - over American intelligence services and experts).
@@mathewpt4478hahahaha this is hilarious! You really want to talk about Ukraine? Yeah, Sleepy Joe is terrible for still sending money and weapons to help Ukraine defend itself from a foreign invader. You know, what Trump fantasizes is going on in our southern border? And while we are on Ukraine, why don’t we also talk about Trump’s request to the same president to help him find dirt on Biden and ended up getting himself impeached. 😂 And the economy is actually strong, people can easily find work because unemployment is literally at its lowest in years, unfortunately but we are now still dealing with the stupid ramifications of the Trump tax and his tariffs while in a deadlocked congress thanks to the TrumPets 🎺 🎉😂
Why do you support the elimination of the middle class and free speech? Your not a liberal anymore if support a party that is anti free speech. Historically the “good guys” are never the ones that takes away free speech takes away guns and that weaponizing the justice system against their political opponents that’s literally step by step what the Nazis did right before everything got really bad there.
How do you guys make such a big deal about a .3 point swing in the polls. Polls that have a 2 point error margin (but a functional MoE of 7 points in Wi)
Saved? She steamrolled forward since she took Tim Walz as VP. Trump tanked since he took JD Vance. Vance is in the ratings the least liked VP ever. Lower than Sarah Palin. He keeps making it worse too.
Yeah but Trump’s narcissism renders him incapable of picking a likable VP with a shred of independence.. so really it’s still Trump causing this to himself. Harris and her team are just running a fairly competent campaign.. that and not being senile is enough to crush Trump.
Trump is rotten to the core. Trump isn't fighting for America, he's fighting to stay out of jail. The world is tired of Trump! Kamala Harris / Tim Walz 2024!!! God Bless America!!!
So many insane comments: watch any Kamala interview, and after you feel inspired by her deep philosophical answers, say to yourself, I'm not in denial. Leave Trump out, Kamala is also a very problematic pick... at least say "I'm voting for her because she's not Trump," but how can you say she's a great candidate.
Honestly, with Roe v. Wade being overturned, the ones with the most power is definitely whoever is in the Supreme Court. They're the ones who interprets laws. So even if a law is passed, they can actually overturn them.
2nd to whoever puts them there. The GOP blocked Obama's pick and then packed 3 conservative judges under Trump. Then, under Biden, thet started overturning and blocking different laws and policies.
Trump doesn't understand how the government works. He pushed his policymaking on his staffers and foreign policy on his neocons while he golfed. then he talks about the VP signing bills into law like a moron. Underreported part of the debate.
In the US corporate press Dems are responsible for anything bad that happens even though Republicans block them and Republicans are given no agency or responsibility.
@@anticarnickyet he gave us the most secure border in the history of this country, no new wars, affordable rent and groceries, cheap gas, record low inflation, stock market breaking record highs on a consistent basis, fewer covid deaths in 2020 than in 2021 under Biden Harris even with a vaccine, record low unemployment rate for women, blacks and Hispanics, brokered peace deals all across the world which made the world a safer place, etc, etc, etc
Yes, the "madness" created by your Big Media and Big Tech will come to an end if Kumhauler gets in bc they will no longer have Orange Man, Bad to use to fill the airwaves and cyberspace with hate and division. Trump 2024!
Oh fuck off, the only reason the debate looks biased is because every word Trump says is a lie that needs to be checked "Hmm, the moderators fact-checked Trump way more often than they checked Harris. Surely this means that they're biased in her favor, and not that Trump lies more often than Harris does"
Even if Kamala won the debate and said correct statements , I would still prefer Trump as lesser of two evils and not vote for her , don't get me wrong I don't like trump as a person he's crazy has a sharp tongue , but he still 10 times better than a fanatic feminist
@@Aerostarm No, it tells you that the media would spread propaganda and misinformation that would harm the public's view of trump, the state also convicted him, Kamala has a TikTok and that's why she's popular with gen z leading to gen z making positive videos of Kamala and negative videos of trump, Kamala has all the help that she can get, the media is biased and everyone is on her side, in the debate the moderators even fact checked trump but not Kamala, and Kamala even had air-pods and a script during the debate.
@@tzioyn3331 Claims of election fraud, being willing to overturn the election and claim victory for himself, no peaceful transfer of power, still claiming the election was stolen til this day. I could go on and on.
@@tzioyn3331 probably because he is a criminal, the same reason people hated Nixon. Not to mention, a sexual deviant. Not what you would expect from a conservative voter base.
@@AMDFan-s1yThats simply wrong and you are saying you would like a criminal who wants to cleanse the goverment like the third reich rather then a prosecutor? damn thats weird man
Get a mic stand that isolated your mic from the noise of hitting your desk. It’s like there’s a tiny earthquake happening between every sentence you speak? Using your hands while speaking is good presentation but be careful how it can impact your recording!
As a Russian I am really excited about US elections because we here don't have them for real
As a Russian, you probably have more influence on the US elections than most Americans ; )
I'm sorry to hear that, here in the U.S., our country's leadership is dominated by corporate interests and the military industrial complex. Every country has its problems, I guess. From one little guy to another I wish you the best!
Yeah, the Russian people unfortunately traded away all political thought for a false sense of security from Putin.
Hope saying this here doesn't bite you in the ass. Genuinely.
@@oliverwitte996 well the mic is a nessacry evil to keep chnia and its axis (russia,Iran,Pakistan,venzula,syria,eritrea,RSF, north korea)
Day 1: "Why Kamala is surging"
Day 2: "Why Kamala’s polls are dipping"
Day 3: "Why post-debate polls look pretty great for Kamala"
Day 4: "Polls tank: is this the end for Kamala?"
Day 5: "Big surge for Kamala: what next?"
Seriously, following these news shorts never ceases to be funny. X)
It almost feels like the democratic party propaganda branch but for Europeans or something, makes no sense.
What a rollercoaster.
Oh, this video ain’t gonna age well😂
Media including youtuber take themself much too important. Most voters stay with their opinion over years. It only depend who can motivate the own follower better to go voting.
I mean they are a British media soooo
"why didn't you do it sooner?" On immigration. Because the Republicans blocked the bills. That's why.
Why would they support a bill that wouldn't solve the issue at hand? It's like if I made a bill and called it 'The Super Awesome Make Everyone Rich Act 2024' and it actually just drains your bank account and then get mad when you vote against it. The Democrats understand that if they truly fixed immigration issues then they would never win another election again.
To play devil's advocate, what's the point of claiming a change when you know that bills will be blocked too?
Out of the whole debate that was a legit point (maybe the only legit point brought up) against Kamala, she claims things she can't get passed.
i’m not exactly pro trump but i do believe that most times where a “bipartisan” bill was proposed it was pretty um… supported by one side.
@@repuIsiveiirc the bill was initially proposed/supported by a republican rep
@@repuIsive most of the bill was created by a republican senator. Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Lankford
They weren't looking bad beforehand, but yeah, turns out people think claiming people are eating dogs is insane...
It IS insane, what are you talking about man? Get real. There's no proof of this apart from the s*** you see in Facebook that's totally not been AI'd to death. And the false claims people make. It's all one confirmation bias after another.
@calmerkletsoor3797This isn't Facebook, wrong website.
@calmerkletsoor3797Wrong website buddy, this ain't Facebook
@calmerkletsoor3797 maybe in China, but not here.
@calmerkletsoor3797tbf I also eat Schnitzel despite knowing pigs are smarter than dogs or cats.
Saying that Trump's political career was made by debates isn't necessarily wrong but using a clip of his debate against Clinton when making that statement is silly when it was widely perceived she won her debates against him. Should've used a clip from a Republican Primary debate
Clinton won, but Trump came out of them looking pretty good, even presidential, as some of the talking heads said. Before that people wondered if he was just all show no substance as with the primary but with Clinton he was able to stay on policy for a bit and really fired up the gop.
Are you insane? Trump demolished her in those debates. He had far better answers, far better zingers and overall showed her as a robotic candidate. Who says Clinton won? She got wrecked
Clinton probably would have won if a) she had been a more likable person, and more importantly b) if it hadn't been for the e-mail affair and smear campaign that conveniently happened just before election day. It's also noteworthy that pollsters weren't taking into account several factors in the past, therefore having Clinton poll far ahead of Trump making many Democratic voters complacent.
@@MrBritishComedyAll true points. I think another aspect is Clinton's name, in a context where the US was getting sick and tired of the establishment, garden-variety politicians and ruling-class Washington dynasties.
Clinton may have won the debate in substance, but Trump won in presence. He came out looking like a strongman, a figher, a champion of the American people. And that's exactly what people wanted to see.
Many people thought Clinton won the first debate
so it also means that one debate isnt the be all and end all.
Are polls trustworthy? No, but polls say that the debates that also don't matter, do matter.
Come to think of it, nothing is fully trustworthy, there's always a room for error
Literally 2016 debates 1 could say changed the election.
I don’t know how debates change voting patterns, but they definitely change history. Despite being an incredibly close race, the election of 1960 is really only remembered for one thing, that debate. And that legacy changed how candidates campaigned and debated completely.
@@JakubWojciechowski933 ”Well, folks, when you're right 52% of the time, you're wrong 48% of the time.”
Neither do, if you just look at the correlations historically (which obviously has been done). Allan Lichtman’s predictive model on the other hand.. scary accurate.
The AtlasIntel poll crosstabs show the quality is very iffy. The sampling is very uneven, having 70% of respondents being male.
I think men are generally more willing to speak on politics, thus the skew.
@@TheMrJoltz Sure, but Male representation isn’t that high in American elections. Because of this, a good pollster is supposed to take that into account with who they pick for polling.
Considering the gender divide is maybe the biggest difference this election, with polls showing double digit leads for Trump among men and double digit leads for Harris among women, with an election far more likely to be closer to 50/50 than 70/30, I hope that is considered in weighting the poll.
I mean that's probably intentional since trump's base is definitely more male. Gives a picture of what people will vote at least.@@TheMrJoltz
All sampling is heavy blue except rasmussn. Known fact
Crosstab diving is generally an exercise in futility
That letter falling off @3:00 was funny as hell to me.
yeah I was just wondering if it really happened and when? x)
I just don't get how anyone can listen to Trump and Vance and say ... yeah, that's who I want running things. Even if you don't like Kamala, why would you vote for an 80 y/o with the temperament of a toddler into office ... with the chance of him being succeeded by man who was probably rooting for Gilead in Handmaid's Tale.
One would assume for the same reason that some people stood by Biden until the bitter end. People are partisan and a candidate's qualities as a human are unimportant to a lot of people
Becausenthey are afraid that Kamala will deprive them of all their rights or something. Propaganda. Cant blame them, if you lived in their media bubble you would be the same.
And other people look at democrat cities and dont understand how you can vote for them. Youre in an ideological bubble thats it.
@@mnm1273 Biden did drop though. Why can't Trump do the same?
@@Burito-tj5ry what are the Republican cities we have as counter examples how to do it right?
Love TLDR news, always have, but I think they fell to the media hype around Kamala's diminishing numbers around September. I know they have mentioned RFK Jr.'s leaving but just in passing. It really does look that that had more impact than a true change in people's feeling or a waning of Kamala's popularity, you can clearly see it in the graph they put up
Yeah I kind of had a double take when I saw the title and intro. State specific polling didn’t seem to be waning at all, and her national lead was pretty consistent. So idk why they’ve taken the line she was struggling
@@keirlamont2806 they have done this for a couple of weeks. I think in part is because most analysts expected her rise to falter eventually and they keep wanting to point out when it happens. I feel it is a bit irresponsible and lazy in the analysis.
@@santiagomolinatorresarpi8554 also feel it lacks the pretty vital perspective that in a campist presidential election, a national poll lead of even 2-3% is pretty healthy, the fact they’ve labelled her being at 5% as barely a recovery feels like a lack of perspective on the race
Definitely confirmation bias, she barely “jittered” in the polls and every news outlet grasped onto that like a life jacket for the week it happened.
This channel posts only the most superficial takes. This is just what it is.
Honestly, not sure why people act like Nate Silver is some amazing predictor and gets to decide what the polls say. He's had a couple of lucky elections, but over all his accuracy sits around the same level as Punxsutawney Phil.
Too true
He was one of the only pollsters who gave Trump a chance in 2016 tbf
My issue with the reporting isn’t so much that they are using his forecast, but that TLDR is treating him like he’s the only forecaster. And failing to comment on aspects like house effects and poll taker reliability robs listeners of context. Like the recent poll published in the Daily Mail. It reports that Harris is up nationally by 1 point, but before this, it has never had her ahead of trump, so that’s a decent shift. It just feels like TLDR is cheery-picking polls to make the race look more desperate.
Bc he does real analysis not padding polls which lean heavily D. He is also a D
Read my comment.
04:31 The two letter state codes were wrong big time.
Pennslyvania = PA
Georgia = GA
Typical of TL, DR's tendency to miss little details.
Trump would never want anything to do with P.E.
They no longer have anyone check their graphics before they publish videos.
It's pretty embarrassing actually.
Those are simple little mistakes that could have been caught by 2 editors watching the final video before uploading.
It totally made me not listen to like a half minute of the video. 😅
You should have played Eating the Dogs and Cats clip. It never fails to get a laugh. But seriously, you know it is f'ed up when that didn't put the final nail in the coffin, which looks more like a Porcupine.
The stories are true. The immigrants are eating cats. and geese. So climb out of bed, so some research. and get an education.
@@Rob-k9tI've done tons of research on this, and found no evidence that this is true - only unfounded claims.
@@HobokenSquatCobblerwhat it sounds like is you’re covering your ears and closing your eyes. You can’t see it so clearly it isn’t happening. I’ve seen dozens of videos
@@cpttankerjoe You've seen videos of people REPORTING/CLAIMING this, or seen videos showing actual physical EVIDENCE of Haitians eating pets, etc? If the latter, then provide some search string or clues how to find them. I know YT won't let you post a link. I've seen nothing other than claims, and the photos and one video everyone claims are proof but in fact are not. I legitimately want to see proof if it exists.
It's a metal coffin at this point
Don't get overconfident people. This is going to a battle right through the finish line. It's as close as close can be. Get out and fuckin' vote. Just do it. And get everyone you know to do it. It really matters. Democracy is on the line here, and that's no joke. It's as serious as it can be.
Absolutely! Vote! Vote! VOTE!
I vote Kamala Harris and. Tw. Vance. 2024🇺🇲💯 President of Usa America 🇺🇲💯
And god bless all great value America for ever 💟🌱🇺🇲💯
@@jeaneelrf6475 Good that you support Kamala Harris and Walz. But Vance? What is that about?
"DeMoCrAcY iS oN tHe LiNe HeRe"
Nate Silver isn’t the guru he thinks he is.
Its so annoying seeing these guys contibual site his when he is such an outlier
I tend to go with Alan and 538
Nate Silvers the same one who predicted a Red Wave in 2022
I love 538
@@elicarlson7682isn’t 538 Nate silver?
Why do u guys follow Nate Silver so much? Why not other polling and prediction sites like 538 or Race to the WH or use an aggregate of them?
Doesn't Nate Silver have a bad name? Try listening to Allan Lichtman
Silver used to be very reputable, unfortunately I think he’s just shilling out for Peter Theil these days
because it gives Trump wins or very close races which is great for youtube clicks and ad revenue. One sided races are boring.
Silver's modelling is reasonable. He founded 538 before he sold it to ABC. His modelling got only one state (Indiana) wrong in the 2008 election and he got all 50 states right in the 2012 election. Although he got the Clinton prediction wrong for the 2016 election, he was less bullish on Clinton than many.
Aggregates give the only realistically accurate trend lines. Not using one is malpractice.
Also the fact the Trump refuses another debate with Harris suggests that he finds debates influential, too.
?
Do you blame him? The moderators didn't fact check Harris at all. And then after the debate ABC and others writes an article showing all the lies that Harris stated. Even I spotted some during the debate. If that is how debates are ran with the moderators being biase then what is the point?
Voting has already started. What'd the point to another debate!?!?
@@jbmoney357doesn't voting start on the 5th of November
or that he knows it will be a rigged 3v1 again
3:02 best F off :D
"Kamala Harris' waning political prospects", a dip in the polls is hardly a "waning" of political prospects.
Oh, the drama! By that logic, they should be talking about "Trump's Titanic Tankage".
classic UK news tactics.
Tldr's silence on certain bigger recent events in this election than a silly debate is telling...
@ArawnOfAnnwn it takes time to see if this second attempt is going to have an effect on voting
@@millerrepin4452 Is that all that matters to you? The effect it has on voting? That's the only reason it may be worth covering?!
Nate Silvers bulletin is so unreliable. Really confused why you guys still use it. 538 is much more reliable and consistent.
538 is run by Nate Silver.
@Jajalaatmaar Not anymore I believe. I think 538 is owned by ABC now. Nate Silver works for a politics betting website now
@@Gathamphetamine Nate SIlver now works for Polymarket. The same betting site that is funded by Peter Thiel....the billionaire that bankrolls JD Vance.
@@Jajalaatmaar not anymore
Polymarket from Peter Theil @@Gathamphetamine
I remember hearing all this in 2016. Don't get lazy and think it's in the bag for Harris. Get out and vote💙
Republicans will ask why she didn't do it sooner, because they don't actually understand how the govt works. The vice president has exactly 2 jobs: president of the senate and the tie breaker vote. The vice president has no real policy role and before Teddy: it's where they sent politicians to retire
They should instead ask trump why he asked republicans to vote no on the border bill proposed. If they feel like asking questions.
Also trump didn't do anything about the border while in office, other than put children in cages. They should ask him why those questions lmao.
Just ask a congressman to do it earlier then
Someone that did more than just _watch_ School House Rock. Your comment is refreshing, Nick.
Yup. Other than President Dick Cheney, VPs have no power. They’re there just in case the President gets offed.
Sometimes the administration delegates a certain responsibility to the VP. Immigration was delegated to Harris by Biden. This was around the same time when you could read in the news that deportations skyrocketed. I think Harris aimed to focus on the root causes but just delayed the problem by a few years as she neglected the border and people just keep flowing into the country
Don't take anything for granted! Ignore the polls and VOTE!!! 🌊🌊🌊
The fact that Trump is even considered a valid candidate is ridiculous
yeah and Kamala really earned her spot 🤡
@@dogman615 you want to elaborate on why you think she didn't? She got all the delegates and was chosen by the party. The dem voters didn't want Biden and their voices were heard. I'd call that pretty democratic.
@@LFPAnimationsno one voted for her. An untalented puppet she will be 😊
@@dogman615 Regardless of "earning" a spot, trump cant even constitutionally be president again. If the SC was not breaking their oaths to run interference for him, he wouldnt even be on the ballot.
Which the dems should use, but lack the spine to do so.
As opposed to who? Biden? Harris!?
6:25 This isn't true. She addressed immigration quite clearly: what you should be asking is Trump why he killed the bipartisan border bill.
11 million people walked over the border under Biden/ Harris my guy 🤦🏻♂️
@@benbecker1282 This number is so comically wrong I don't even know where to begin.
So instead I'll just point out that there were only 6 million *encounters* in the past 3 years, let alone people actually getting past.
@@TheFinalChaptersWow! I was going to say you have your head in the sand, but I'm thinking more like up your a$$! That's OK, we will see the final chapter in November when Trump wins the election.
@@benbecker1282 Why did he not finish the great wall and why didn't Mexico pay for it?
@@russowens4696 He will NOT win. He has always been a loser!
Why did the chicken cross the road?
To avoid a second debate with Kamala Harris.
Not a Trump fan myself but she was offered a debate with Trump on Fox that she turned down.
@@StarMan_2018 Ah yes the far right fox news they would deffinetly not favor trump
@@Flippohoyyylike ABC did with Kamala. America is deeply partisan.
@@marcusluciani1620
That's an easy fix, tell Trump to stop lying so much.
@@StarMan_2018 Trump specifically conditioned it on having peak sycophancy hosts only - the Jesse Waters type opinion clowns. Trump refused to do it with any Fox “hard news” host like Bret Baier.
3:02 thank you for using this clip lol
*Sigh* Up and down...
How many times will they have a title like that, before November? 🙄
I don't know what debate people were watching
One where Trump got thoroughly trounced.
They're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats - Donald Trump
Given the record of accusations on the GOP side, a good question for the GOP is "Do they taste like chicken?"
They literally are though?
@walomeister5632
The GOP governor of Ohio and the police department came out to debunk the claims.
Stfu
@@walomeister5632 That BS there not you believe honest anything this clown says
@@walomeister5632no. JD Vance admitted that he made it up because he wanted the media to cover him.
Here's a question for Trump why did you kill the border deal??
Because that border bill was useless and would've done nothing to actually stop illegal immigration.
Next.
We all know the answer. It would hurt his campaign.
It was a shit bill that didn't actually address any of the real problems.
@@govols1995 it was not, BOTH democrats and republicans supported it.
Stop defending Trump's actions
@@friendlyotaku9525 lmao, not only is he's right, he forgot to mention that about 3/4ths of money in the bill was to be sent to israel and ukraine. that was a foreign aid bill with border stuff sprinkled in so the democrats could cry about it for the election
Glad to have you Back !!!😃👏🥹🥳🙏
Nate Silver isn’t credible
Nate Silver has a far better record than so many other pollsters on presidential elections.
@@offtodamoonall he did was give Trump slightly higher odds of winning in 2016. He still had Hillary winning with 70% chance
Nate Silver doesn't have a crystal ball. He's much more accurate than most poll aggregators.
And frankly people should be considering this a very close race, because it is.
Turnout will decide who wins and who loses, and polls can't predict that.
@@crazyrobots6565 he wasn't accurate in 2022
@@dubliam8064 lol yes he was. Stop lying.
He had Biden with an 89% chance of winning the electoral college and even guessed Georgia correctly giving Biden a 58% chance of winning which is something no other poll aggregator or election predictors guessed.
Not sure what polls you are looking at.
On that YouGov MRP poll something that poll also found was around 80% of the respondents had already decided who they were going to vote for and had not changed or been swayed throughout the electoral period.
Im in that poll. I have you.gov. I have never changed my vote intentions
As flawed as the Democrats are, as a European it still amazes me (in a bad way) how *close* this race is. After the debate, him saying those crazy things and being an absolute joke ("old man yelling at clouds" meme), he's still polling at 45%. It's ridiculous. I know that when there's only two options / parties to vote for, if you're a conservative, no matter what the main candidate says or does, you're still probably going to vote conservative. But it's getting to insane amounts of ridiculous (more than in 2016 and 2020), and almost half of the country still supports that. lol And that's without taking into account the Electoral College, which will definitely help Donald, even if he loses by 5-8M votes (again). Still, receiving 45% of the total vote, for such a bad candidate should make people reconsider what are they doing with their life.
As a European you should also understand that your opinion in their election is based off your ignorant view of it. You dont actually live there so you’ll never understand what their values are.
Even 5 people asked CAN BE CALLED A POLL!!! Vote on what's affecting you and your family everyday, and not what the media says about your feelings or what you should be feeling.
Because claiming that people eat pets on masse and that babies get placed before a f1r1ng-squad, was just a tad too much?😅
They are in fact eating pets. It just so happens the video everyone was pointing to wasn't for Springfield, it was from a town 30 minutes away from Springfield. Not really much of a "check mate". Also you can call abortion centers in just about any blue state and have no problem being scheduled for an 8th or 9th month abortion. You can even find video of the former governor of Virginia advocating for "post birth" abortions.
@@govols1995 actually it was a response to the question over what would happen if a mother delivered a child that was not viable (i.e., if the child was stillborn), and the governor responded, "The infant would be delivered, the infant would be kept comfortable, the infant would be resuscitated if that’s what the mother and the family desired. And then a discussion would ensue between the physicians and the mother".
@@seanocarraigh7064 Mad cope.
@@seanocarraigh7064 That sounds a lot like Nazi Germany ☠☠
@@govols1995 not a single state does that, and nope, Haitians are not eating pets. The mayor and local officials have stated that there is ZERO evidence of your baseless claims, and about the incident you re speaking the woman wasn’t even Haitian, she was a lifelong resident of canton, Ohio. And not a single state does post birth abortions.
anybody else notice that the acronym for Pennsylvania and Georgia were PE and GE instead of PA and GA in this video?
Ohhh I see TLDR has finally fallen lock step
@@ChuckThree soon they will be saying Japan needs to be open to immigrants
minor correction, at 4:25 Pennsylvania's abbreviation is incorrect
Harris/Walz 2024💙
Vote blue for a continuation of allowing millions of unvetted illegal immigrants into this country, historic inflation crisis, record high consumer debt, record high gas prices in all 50 states, terrorists being released into this country, a guaranteed WW3, illegal immigrants being prioritized over US citizens and homeless veterans, violent crime skyrocketing, record low test scores for kids K-12, the allowing of men to compete in women's sports and enter women's restrooms and locker rooms, the promotion of gender confusion and sexual degeneracy, the promotion of children being able to have irreversible gender reassignment surgeries that will mutilate their bodies, etc, etc, etc
Great analysis! Just a small note for TLDR, Pennsylvania is abbreviated "PA," not "PE" and Georgia is abbreviated "GA," not "GE." Sorry to be nitpicky, but thought you should know (if you see this) for future posts.
Immigration isn't her weak spot, she just needs to keep talking about how trump killed the bipartisan immigration bill. Also she would do well to visit the border if she hasn't
Oh she has been to the border.
She hasn’t been to Europe either.
Every spot is her weak spot. She has no plan, no charisma, no ability to speak candidly, nothing. She was the most unpopular veep by public opinion and was parachuted into her current position without having to win any contests. As to the border deal, the deal was simply designed to guarantee a specific high rate of illegal immigration and more guards would've been deployed to speed up the process under the guise of legitimacy. Why would Republicans agree to that?
There's a series of mistakes at 4:31 in the video: Pennsylvania's abbreviation is PA, not PE, and Georgia's abbreviation is GA, not GE.
How can it have saved her when she used it to launch her campaign?? Her polling started from -6% behind, to +5 ahead? Seriously, TLDR have got their lines twisted here.
The answer is in your question
I think you guys should reconsider basing some of your analysis on night silver
reminds me of how they said Hilary Clinton's polls looked great
Except the numbers they use here, come from one of the only guys who correctly predicted 2016. + Many pollsters learned their lessons and include the Trump effect in their models now
Hillary was a much less charismatic and liked character with much more "history." I don't think secret cables about her e-mails will be dropped two days out from the election. Plus, Trump was an unknown entity as a politician. Some people hoped he'd just be a bumbling incompetent. Now they know he is malicious, corrupt and reckless. Of the 80 million people who voted for Biden, many of them weren't necessarily fans of his, but instead, haters of Trump. Hillary was still favoured but people didn't like her enough or dislike Trump enough to actually vote for her.
On one hand, nice. On the other, it's both quite tiresome and embarrassing that you have to remind people every two weeks who one of the candidates is otherwise they forget and let him climb up the polls again.
I want to make sure people know Nate silver has been widely discredited among the polling community for making some very questionable decisions regarding what polls to include as well as not disclosing enough information about his model. I would definitely look elsewhere for a good polling aggregator.
Nate Silver's record speaks for itself. 49/50 in 2008, 50/50 in 2012, 48/50 in 2020 and he gave Trump a better chance in 2016 than almost everyone else.
Sounds like cope on your part. And Nate isnt the only one showing good poll numbers for Trump. There are a lot of fundamentals that still favor him, like early mail-in ballot numbers out of the swing states and party registration numbers. Not to mention how mainstream polls often undercount Trump's support during a presidential year.
Don't get cocky, vote y'all.
The fact that it is this close is insane. Any other democratic nation would not even consider Trump as a viable candidate for any government position.
Trump is still here mentally and physically, Biden however, has dementia, and Kamala did nothing in these 4 years as vice president.
I'm sorry. I wish you were right.
UK elected BoJo.
France lets Le Pen get closer every year.
Argentina elected Milei.
Brazil elected Bolsonaro.
Italy speaks for itself.
India elected Modi.
Israel elected Netanyahu.
Australia elected Scotty Morrison.
All just from the top of my head in the last decade, not counting fake elections like Putin. Not all as bad as Trump, not all elected. But still all considered viable candidates.
The struggle to protect and grow our democracies is eternal, no one is immune to propaganda, and all nations are vulnerable to strongmen, fascists, and dictators
France is not a Democratic nation? LePen is the 2nd place winner in the last couple Presidential elections. AfD is rising in Germany. Canadan Conservatives looks likely to win next election, and the Canadans I have interacted with compares Povillier with Trump.
@@threecards333 LePen would ahve to have more than 50% votes to ever be in power, as absolutely noone is willing to form a coalition with her. AFD - the same story, it did well in two lands and suddenly it's a big deal worldwide, even though they won't even enter the government of those lands thanks to how coalitions work.
Polls mean nothing. Just vote.
Can you stop using nate silver? he is very clearly biased due to his employment by peter thiel.
Is he really employed by Thiel? If so, I'm done with listening to Sliver.
This.
@@johnlabus7359 He works as an advisor at polymarket. He said it doesn’t affect his predictions, but I wouldn’t trust his word on that.
This is like when people say a referee is corrupt because they don't like a few calls they make. Silver got 49/50 in 2008, 50/50 in 2012 and 48/50 in 2020. 2016 his model gave Trump a better chance than almost everyone else. His model is more reliable than almost everyone else.
@@offtodamoon I am not arguing he wasnt good in the past. I am arguing that him getting payed by peter thiel as an advisor to polymarket changed his biases. This is a close election, but he is one of the only people/organizations who gives trump a better chance at winning, especially a 20% higher one. Meanwhile at 538, still using his old model, Harris holds the advantage.
You remember how after 2016 everyone asked "How did Hillary lose???" and then someone pointed out that she never, not once went to Michigan. Okay, well when you put such emphasis on PA being the +90% decider that is ignoring ALL of the other States. Right here in your map you have NC being Red when right now it is Grey. I saw someone else do ME as a split, but why? Right now it is leaning full Blue. But again, Polls are a snapshot in time. We have not even gotten to the October surprise yet.
And that is why I love the Harris campaign, they did not make me pay attn to election politics for 2.5years, they only asked for total 4mo of attention, big W there.
well here’s a reason why she didn’t do it sooner “SHE IS NOT THE PRESIDENT”🤣
Well she was the acting president in 2022 briefly and is 'the last person in the room' on most decisions.
@@matejmoravek4580 She doesn’t have constitutional authority for anything outside of assuming the role of president in event president is not able to perform duties, preside over the senate in tie breaker votes.
Outside of that a VP role is largely ineffective. Surely they can advise and be the president assistant but not much they do outside of that
@@ajohndaeal-asad6731 But she has de facto authority on mostly anything if she gets Dem leadership on board (which she easily could).
@@matejmoravek4580 But… She… aint… the … damn… president… that’s not how things work. There’s nothing that she can do that would not be immediately overwritten by Biden.
She can advise policy positions. But when it comes to exercising executive powers there’s nothing De facto about it. VP is a role that largely gets overhyped. Hell the Speaker of the House service wise does 10 times more than a VP do
She was always in on every major decision made by Joey. That was confirmed by him and KJP. She even said it herself.
Looks like people haven't watched the debates 😄
13 keys are proving more true. Though we won't know til election day for certain though!
Harris actually made a good point on the debate about both economics and immigration, and Trump is the one who didn't answer properly there. So these are no longer weak spots for Harris. I think Trump no longer relies on any actual strengths, but rather on people who strongly believe in him.
Because, Trump stating cats and dogs were the tipping point....and JD Vance himself claiming its a cooked up story didnt help.
The infighting over who made Trump believe it is also a bad look as it puts on full display how easy it is to manipulate him.
The abbreviation for Pennsylvania is PA, just an FYI for other vids
all that matters in the election day and the votes
Hmm adding voter registration data and highlighting the 'political perspective' of different polling companies might also inform the discussion...
idk how I feel ab nate silver tbh, Ive liked using the betting markets as a good proxy
Georgia abbrev. is GA not GE
Kamala can only win if we: Vote, Get others to vote, spread the vote. VOTE BLUE, GET FRIENDS TO VOTE FOR HER TOO.
Thanks for letting us know you don't understand what is at stake, like finances freedom and the global order.
@@lovly2cu725 Are you suggesting that a Kamala victory would hinder any or all of those things? What freedom do you expect to lose or become limited on? Are you one of those people that calls anything that they don't like "communism"?
Alternative. Just go vote. It doesn't matter who you vote for just that you go vote. People fought and died for the right, no need to let it go unused.
“Idk what she did that’s good but she’s a women and not trump!!! I’m helping end oppression!!”
This guy probably 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@RushOrbitanyone with a rationale brain fears collectivism and communism. Anyone who promises utopia or government aid is trying to push authoritarianism. As Reagan said, scariest words are “I’m from the government and here to help”
Read a book about the Bolshevik’s. Cause they’re literally leftists of today.
I’m in Arizona and I’m voting for Harris! 🎉
Under 10 minutes gang - - - - >
Anyone else notice the letter fall at 3:03??
is nate silver stiil credible?
Not really
I don’t see why not.
According to comments if he forecasts what you want to see, he is credible. Otherwise he is not
New Pennsylvania voter here for Trump 2024. From Philly Suburbs.
Stay focused. Do not get complacent. Vote Blue, vote Harris-Walz. Remember the shock of Trump’s 2016 win, his mishandling of COVID, and the horror of the January 6 insurrection. Your vote matters!
Lets talk about inflation economy and Ukraine of your sleepy joe
@@mathewpt4478only thing you know are buzzwords
More people died from covid in 2021(when Biden became president) than in 2020 (the last year of Trump's term).
@@mathewpt4478 Inflation caused by Trump with his utterly incompetent handling of Covid, and BROUGHT DOWN by Biden?
(Not to forget the manufacturing slump under Trump, the tariffs that increased prices and caused jobs losses, the trade wars he started with countries that are supposed to be America's allies (and which thus only benefited America's enemies), the $8 TRILLION he added to the national debt, the tax cuts that mostly benefited the already-wealthy, the investment he directed towards sunset industries, etc. etc.)
On Ukraine, Biden has been if anything too careful and not bold enough, but Trump would just straight up serve Ukraine on a platter to Putin (probably to try and get a Trump Tower in Moscow). Anyone who supports democracy, the western values, and the rule of law, supports Ukraine, and Harris is *clearly* the right choice to advance that - as opposed to the serial rapist, serial fraud, serial felon, who kisses the boots of dictators. (Like how he trusted Putin's word - like either a complete moron or someone bought by Russia - over American intelligence services and experts).
@@mathewpt4478hahahaha this is hilarious! You really want to talk about Ukraine? Yeah, Sleepy Joe is terrible for still sending money and weapons to help Ukraine defend itself from a foreign invader. You know, what Trump fantasizes is going on in our southern border? And while we are on Ukraine, why don’t we also talk about Trump’s request to the same president to help him find dirt on Biden and ended up getting himself impeached. 😂
And the economy is actually strong, people can easily find work because unemployment is literally at its lowest in years, unfortunately but we are now still dealing with the stupid ramifications of the Trump tax and his tariffs while in a deadlocked congress thanks to the TrumPets 🎺 🎉😂
All the inaccurate POLLS from 16 and 20 have Harris up, all the accurate ones from 16 and 20 have Trump up
Harris-Walz 24
💙
Why do you support the elimination of the middle class and free speech? Your not a liberal anymore if support a party that is anti free speech. Historically the “good guys” are never the ones that takes away free speech takes away guns and that weaponizing the justice system against their political opponents that’s literally step by step what the Nazis did right before everything got really bad there.
🇺🇸🇺🇸TRUMP 2024🇺🇸🇺🇸 SAVE AMERICA FROM THE FAR LEFT EXTREMEST
@@Chris-xz8fm Far-Left? hahaha its cute what americans think far-left is
3:03 How that F in FOR just falls down xD
I believe she beat him like a Drum, he wont debate her agian. Bring out the chicken again.
How do you guys make such a big deal about a .3 point swing in the polls. Polls that have a 2 point error margin (but a functional MoE of 7 points in Wi)
Saved? She steamrolled forward since she took Tim Walz as VP. Trump tanked since he took JD Vance. Vance is in the ratings the least liked VP ever. Lower than Sarah Palin. He keeps making it worse too.
Well said. Vance has proven to be such a bad pick. On the other hand, Walz has been crushing it since day one.
Trump-Palin is still on the table, I think, for the 2028 elections. That would be epic!
@@tkzsfen bro trump is not making it to 2028
@@tkzsfen Trump is literally old unfit and senile today
Yeah but Trump’s narcissism renders him incapable of picking a likable VP with a shred of independence.. so really it’s still Trump causing this to himself. Harris and her team are just running a fairly competent campaign.. that and not being senile is enough to crush Trump.
Forget all these poles just "Go Vote!"
Trump is rotten to the core. Trump isn't fighting for America, he's fighting to stay out of jail. The world is tired of Trump! Kamala Harris / Tim Walz 2024!!! God Bless America!!!
when I swipe my instagram reels half of them are "THEIR EATING THE DOGS" memes
People use to tell me that as a Korean who lives in the U.S
I hope so...I'm still going to vote anyway! I'll take my chances with her!
The good news is if you don't like her, we can vote her out in 2028. Conald if voted in will never leave no matter what.
So many insane comments: watch any Kamala interview, and after you feel inspired by her deep philosophical answers, say to yourself, I'm not in denial.
Leave Trump out, Kamala is also a very problematic pick... at least say "I'm voting for her because she's not Trump," but how can you say she's a great candidate.
3:02 I love how the fallen F off the sign changes the context of the phrase
Honestly, with Roe v. Wade being overturned, the ones with the most power is definitely whoever is in the Supreme Court.
They're the ones who interprets laws. So even if a law is passed, they can actually overturn them.
2nd to whoever puts them there.
The GOP blocked Obama's pick and then packed 3 conservative judges under Trump.
Then, under Biden, thet started overturning and blocking different laws and policies.
misinfo alert
Fake news!😅
Please please please don't use Nate Silver. He's mostly putting out pieces to try to regain his relevancy, not an actual prediction.
Stop with this. Polls mean nothing.
? They got the recent UK elections pretty good
polls are pretty good as general indicators. the media just gets them wrong
@korona3103 In the UK or any other country where the popular vote decides the winner, yes, but in the US we have the electoral college.
@@drumpfisidiot5021Lichtman's system is the only accurate poll
@@korona3103 And they got the Indian elections completely wrong. Your point?
It's a good video but didn't you discuss in the editorial that you wanted to stop reporting on mere poll shifts?
Much love from Germany ❤
"Why didn't you do it sooner?"
Because she's not the president.
Trump doesn't understand how the government works. He pushed his policymaking on his staffers and foreign policy on his neocons while he golfed. then he talks about the VP signing bills into law like a moron. Underreported part of the debate.
So if she's not the president and Biden isn't the president either, who is running the US??? Stop defending Harris.
In the US corporate press Dems are responsible for anything bad that happens even though Republicans block them and Republicans are given no agency or responsibility.
But she can influence the president...
@@anticarnickyet he gave us the most secure border in the history of this country, no new wars, affordable rent and groceries, cheap gas, record low inflation, stock market breaking record highs on a consistent basis, fewer covid deaths in 2020 than in 2021 under Biden Harris even with a vaccine, record low unemployment rate for women, blacks and Hispanics, brokered peace deals all across the world which made the world a safer place, etc, etc, etc
What's the difference between Imprint and Brilliant?
I voted for Trump twice, NEVER again. This madness must come to an end. Kamala 2024 🥥
Yes, the "madness" created by your Big Media and Big Tech will come to an end if Kumhauler gets in bc they will no longer have Orange Man, Bad to use to fill the airwaves and cyberspace with hate and division. Trump 2024!
If the debate changed your mind to vote for kamala you shouldn’t be able to vote. 3:1 with the most bias I’ve ever seen.
Trump got fact-checked because he was the one lying.
Got to love how Die hard Democrats hate democracy while claiming to defend it....
Oh fuck off, the only reason the debate looks biased is because every word Trump says is a lie that needs to be checked
"Hmm, the moderators fact-checked Trump way more often than they checked Harris. Surely this means that they're biased in her favor, and not that Trump lies more often than Harris does"
The F falling when Theresa May is talking about BUILDING a country that works for everyone is hilarious😂
The rcp average has trump winning!
Nate silver is a clerk who has been wrong multiple times.
Even if Kamala won the debate and said correct statements , I would still prefer Trump as lesser of two evils and not vote for her , don't get me wrong I don't like trump as a person he's crazy has a sharp tongue , but he still 10 times better than a fanatic feminist
Yeah, Kamala has been vice president for 4 years and she didn't do anything. It's not about the person it's about their policies.
What vice president has ever done anything. I will vote for the lady and the coach.
@@jasonwilliam_79 I'm just saying, Kamala has the backing of the media, gen z, and the state, trump however is alone. Does that tell you something?
@@AMDFan-s1yit tells me that most people think Kamala is a better candidate.
@@Aerostarm No, it tells you that the media would spread propaganda and misinformation that would harm the public's view of trump, the state also convicted him, Kamala has a TikTok and that's why she's popular with gen z leading to gen z making positive videos of Kamala and negative videos of trump, Kamala has all the help that she can get, the media is biased and everyone is on her side, in the debate the moderators even fact checked trump but not Kamala, and Kamala even had air-pods and a script during the debate.
She will lose 😅
That's good news. I don't want that horrible guy Trump to win
I don't understand why people are so against Trump? Like chill, he is not Hitler.
@@tzioyn3331 Claims of election fraud, being willing to overturn the election and claim victory for himself, no peaceful transfer of power, still claiming the election was stolen til this day. I could go on and on.
@@tzioyn3331 probably because he is a criminal, the same reason people hated Nixon. Not to mention, a sexual deviant. Not what you would expect from a conservative voter base.
Ah yes, you would rather have kamala as president even tho she did nothing in these 4 years as vice president.
@@AMDFan-s1yThats simply wrong and you are saying you would like a criminal who wants to cleanse the goverment like the third reich rather then a prosecutor? damn thats weird man
Get a mic stand that isolated your mic from the noise of hitting your desk. It’s like there’s a tiny earthquake happening between every sentence you speak?
Using your hands while speaking is good presentation but be careful how it can impact your recording!
First comment 😅
Gg man🥳