Excellent and astute analysis - as a long-term investor, your model fits my understanding of Tesla's actual worth and potential going forward - thank you!
Jo, many thanks, I understand your position but fear a “frying pan and fire” scenario. I have over 1000 Tesla shares and hope nothing untoward derails your share price prediction, which I find very logical and realistic. Regards, Simon
Same here - the greatest strategic risk is the vote on Elon’s comp package. If that goes through, I don’t think there is much long term risk and the focus will be on short term movements. For long term investors, it should be all good 👍
Wow! I’m seeing this video for the first time on July 5, 2024 which is over a month since you first posted it. Everything you said so far has been true and accurate regarding the stock price. One may not like Trump’s persona, but I also agree that Trump will be a stabilizing factor, based on his foreign policy track record when he was President.
Interesting prediction you made Jo. You missed out something very important happening in the near future, which is the Tesla AGM voting for Elon's compensation plan. The outcome of this vote, will result in a big spike in the stock, either upwards or downwards, all depending on the outcome.
I agree that it’s a risk, mostly to the downside. A positive vote is expected and probably doesn’t move the stock much. It’s hard to assess how likely a negative vote is - it seems very kamikaze of any stockholder to vote against this. But who knows.
I don’t think this vote is a big deal at all. The bottom line is Tesla is steamrolling everyone, and we ought to take advantage of this huge 3 year long dip. After the vote, if it goes Elon’s way, good. If it doesn’t, still good because it will just motivate him that much more.
@@dogfacedponysoldier87 If Tesla does not get enough vote to move to Texas, it opens Tesla vulnerable for further cases where the Delaware judges pull the rug out under Tesla, thus creating uncertainty, which no investors nor Tesla likes. Tesla needs to be in a state that create stability for the company, and Tesla feels that Texas can provide that.
I agree, the buy the rumor sell the news will be in play in July. Depending on how much they reveal on 8/8, we might see it continue to run up (if they only reveal the gen 1.5ish and cybercab models, we might see sell off). The institutions want Tesla to push for next gen, thus they expect news for $25k models.
@@jobhakdi I think you didnt mention the shareholder vote on june 14. What do you think will happen, when the vote goes north or south? This is a rather short term question, but it could have longterm implications.
@@JaDeeeee3097 it’s really hard to tell how much risk is in that vote. Big picture , it is hard to imagine this vote would be negative - but if it is, it would have potentially severely negative consequences mid and long term . Which is why I find it unlikely (shareholders normally don’t want their shares to tank).
Not advice, but all the poor people of the world should put every last penny they have into Tesla stock and hold it for at least 12 years, maybe longer.
That should be pretty obvious to anyone who has half a brain and pays any attention at all. This "Trump is not that bad" theme seems pretty common on these Tesla stock shows. I think it's a way to endear the Musk cultists and keep them watching. I'm trying to find a good Tesla analysis show that breaks that trend. No luck, so far.
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 I think the biggest threat that Tesla faces, is if Trump wins the next election. It'll be a disaster for the EV movement. And it could also be another Germany in 1939.
My take is: 1) there is a 90% chance the comp vote is positive (since shareholders aren't that crazy). 2) if it's negative, there is a 90% chance Elon just stays on and maybe tries again, but a 50%+ chance he starts taking AI out. Bottom line: I really think it gets approved. If not, elon is not going to leave (= no major share crash immediately), but it will damper stock growth long term, potentially significantly.
Lot of rambling. Bottom line...stock may go back to old high of $400 in next 12-18 months. I could not find anything on what you predict price will be in 2025 or 2026. Maybe it is in the rambling some place, but I could not find it. I would prefer you start of with the bottom line predictions for next 18 month, then for 2025 and 2026.
Just pointing out that the last 3 years were highly destabilizing (Ukraine, Israel) and foreign policy switched back to a more bellicose stance. I am not political, just prefer peace over war (definitely better for stocks) and one of the major risks for Tesla is global instability (especially Taiwan).
@@johndoughty7438 Trump gave pootin time to prepare for a war by being a daily drama queen, attracting all attention to himself, distabilising NATO and pushing China closer to Russia. Nice try. 😏
I think price to sales is a horrible metric for valuing Tesla. Its product is costly - revenue is completely misleading. This is basically a robotaxi or bust stock. Weird metrics and comparisons are all misguided in my view. Just do a DCF model on a currently non-existent robotaxi business and guess how likely it will be for it to play out. That makes the most sense to me. This is a speculative stock. Likely in my view it will destroy retail and Wall Street long term. But some investors believe the upside is huge and they value the company highly. I don’t think their robotaxis will be successful. And I think the stock dies when Elon leaves.
Price to sales is a more reliable metric for companies that undergo high fluctuations in margins. You are right that robotaxis (and then humanoid robots) are the largest piece of the upside. Without it, Tesla still has the potential to reach 1,000+ in the not too distant future through EV growth (especially when combined with protective tariffs against china). But the real upside comes from AI. Now, I do not think it’s speculative to assume 1) we reach AGI very soon and will see an explosion in capabilities and 2) Tesla is a top 5 AI company globally. But I understand that opinions can differ here , that’s why some make money and others don’t ;) the beauty of the stock market is that whoever is right gets a big reward.
Excellent and astute analysis - as a long-term investor, your model fits my understanding of Tesla's actual worth and potential going forward - thank you!
Outstanding video thank you for sharing. Very well delivered.
I enjoyed your Tesla videos. You should keep making them, all time high? It's coming just a matter of months or a couple years
Thank you! You can always let me know what topics you are most interested in, that helps me with topics. Obviously, tesla stock stays high priority
Jo, many thanks, I understand your position but fear a “frying pan and fire” scenario. I have over 1000 Tesla shares and hope nothing untoward derails your share price prediction, which I find very logical and realistic. Regards, Simon
Same here - the greatest strategic risk is the vote on Elon’s comp package. If that goes through, I don’t think there is much long term risk and the focus will be on short term movements. For long term investors, it should be all good 👍
I don’t expect any significant upward movement until margins start to climb. Which means FSD/robo taxi revenue needs to start showing up.
Very astute and insightful analysis. 🎉
Wow! I’m seeing this video for the first time on July 5, 2024 which is over a month since you first posted it. Everything you said so far has been true and accurate regarding the stock price. One may not like Trump’s persona, but I also agree that Trump will be a stabilizing factor, based on his foreign policy track record when he was President.
Thanks Lukas! It's all about predicting the future correctly and positioning the portfolio accordingly ;) More to come!
Interesting prediction you made Jo. You missed out something very important happening in the near future, which is the Tesla AGM voting for Elon's compensation plan. The outcome of this vote, will result in a big spike in the stock, either upwards or downwards, all depending on the outcome.
Exactly.. Dangerous situation
I agree that it’s a risk, mostly to the downside. A positive vote is expected and probably doesn’t move the stock much. It’s hard to assess how likely a negative vote is - it seems very kamikaze of any stockholder to vote against this. But who knows.
I don’t think this vote is a big deal at all. The bottom line is Tesla is steamrolling everyone, and we ought to take advantage of this huge 3 year long dip. After the vote, if it goes Elon’s way, good. If it doesn’t, still good because it will just motivate him that much more.
@@dogfacedponysoldier87 If Tesla does not get enough vote to move to Texas, it opens Tesla vulnerable for further cases where the Delaware judges pull the rug out under Tesla, thus creating uncertainty, which no investors nor Tesla likes.
Tesla needs to be in a state that create stability for the company, and Tesla feels that Texas can provide that.
Tesla's price to sales is not really comparable to that of Nvidia or Microsoft until they have similar margins to them.
I agree, the buy the rumor sell the news will be in play in July. Depending on how much they reveal on 8/8, we might see it continue to run up (if they only reveal the gen 1.5ish and cybercab models, we might see sell off). The institutions want Tesla to push for next gen, thus they expect news for $25k models.
every dip, buy more, and profit. easy as pie
My friend great Videos🎉 my opinion is also in 18 Month to 400 usd.
Appreciate your analysis. Really hope you’re close…
Why did you not talk about the overhang of elon's comp plan?
Interesting to learn you have a degree in economics. Thanks for the insight!
Awesome videos! Thank you!
Thank you! Let me know what topics you are most interested in going forward, that's always helpful to know :)
@@jobhakdi I think you didnt mention the shareholder vote on june 14. What do you think will happen, when the vote goes north or south? This is a rather short term question, but it could have longterm implications.
@@JaDeeeee3097 it’s really hard to tell how much risk is in that vote. Big picture , it is hard to imagine this vote would be negative - but if it is, it would have potentially severely negative consequences mid and long term . Which is why I find it unlikely (shareholders normally don’t want their shares to tank).
Thanks for the reasonable analysis.
hell yea!
Not advice, but all the poor people of the world should put every last penny they have into Tesla stock and hold it for at least 12 years, maybe longer.
I think in the next 6 months all time High!
That’s bold! But possible.
Been waiting for this - naughty habit 😅
Wow, I think you are good at Tesla analysis, but terrible at US politics!
Please stick to stocks.
Trump is toxic to the world!
That should be pretty obvious to anyone who has half a brain and pays any attention at all.
This "Trump is not that bad" theme seems pretty common on these Tesla stock shows. I think it's a way to endear the Musk cultists and keep them watching. I'm trying to find a good Tesla analysis show that breaks that trend. No luck, so far.
Trump is good. Stop smoking your crank. Just wake up.
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 I think the biggest threat that Tesla faces, is if Trump wins the next election. It'll be a disaster for the EV movement. And it could also be another Germany in 1939.
Now add relative market share % (Tesla vs all auto sales) and the low rev multiple will look even more stupid
it bothers me massively that leo koguan is voting no. i don't understand his motivation for this.
Attention, that’s it
What about6 the risk of Elon leaving because the compensation vote goes against him and he no longer wants to build AI within Tesla?
My take is: 1) there is a 90% chance the comp vote is positive (since shareholders aren't that crazy). 2) if it's negative, there is a 90% chance Elon just stays on and maybe tries again, but a 50%+ chance he starts taking AI out. Bottom line: I really think it gets approved. If not, elon is not going to leave (= no major share crash immediately), but it will damper stock growth long term, potentially significantly.
Cost of goods sold is apples and hand grenades…. The cost to sell software vs the cost to build a car is no comparison.
Stop playing politics with the people.. and focus on the stocks....
Going under
Working class don’t buy super expensive EV cars
If it’s broke you pay a lot of money.Working class no.
Lot of rambling. Bottom line...stock may go back to old high of $400 in next 12-18 months. I could not find anything on what you predict price will be in 2025 or 2026. Maybe it is in the rambling some place, but I could not find it. I would prefer you start of with the bottom line predictions for next 18 month, then for 2025 and 2026.
Do you think the pay package is going to go through? That’s giving me Gastro disorder, lol
Trump as a political stabilizing factor? A very optimistic view imo
So Biden with the wars that were born partially from his lack of leadership is.
Just pointing out that the last 3 years were highly destabilizing (Ukraine, Israel) and foreign policy switched back to a more bellicose stance. I am not political, just prefer peace over war (definitely better for stocks) and one of the major risks for Tesla is global instability (especially Taiwan).
@@jobhakdi trump would be the end of nato and free trade, really not what we want in europe!
There was no wars when Trump was president, give me a break! Greatest president of all time!
@@johndoughty7438
Trump gave pootin time to prepare for a war by being a daily drama queen, attracting all attention to himself, distabilising NATO and pushing China closer to Russia. Nice try. 😏
The Elon pay package is the biggest danger
WOW you view Trump becoming president as an improvement BOGGLES MY MIND ???
I think price to sales is a horrible metric for valuing Tesla. Its product is costly - revenue is completely misleading.
This is basically a robotaxi or bust stock. Weird metrics and comparisons are all misguided in my view. Just do a DCF model on a currently non-existent robotaxi business and guess how likely it will be for it to play out. That makes the most sense to me.
This is a speculative stock. Likely in my view it will destroy retail and Wall Street long term. But some investors believe the upside is huge and they value the company highly. I don’t think their robotaxis will be successful. And I think the stock dies when Elon leaves.
Price to sales is a more reliable metric for companies that undergo high fluctuations in margins. You are right that robotaxis (and then humanoid robots) are the largest piece of the upside. Without it, Tesla still has the potential to reach 1,000+ in the not too distant future through EV growth (especially when combined with protective tariffs against china). But the real upside comes from AI. Now, I do not think it’s speculative to assume 1) we reach AGI very soon and will see an explosion in capabilities and 2) Tesla is a top 5 AI company globally. But I understand that opinions can differ here , that’s why some make money and others don’t ;) the beauty of the stock market is that whoever is right gets a big reward.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣