19:20 CEO only cares about stock prices. When stocks go up, CEOs hire, down, fire 20:40 Tim Fiori econ calls 23:00 structural bear mkt for bonds 24:00 US fighting 3 wars 25:00 interest shot up, no effect on homebuilders 27:20 goods inflation low, service inflation hi 37:00 gold. Rate cuts built in USD 38:15 UK econ 40:00 European companies cannot price gouge or collude 45:40 UK, Canada, US resiliency; accumulated wealth 47:45 most consumers don't count anyway. The spending by the wealthy matters. 50:40 labor mkt will dictate goldilocks 55:30 correlation btw stocks and bonds
US equities are the long end of a whip that is cracking. The UK, Germany, and France are all in recession now. China, well, it's certainly not doing well economically, but the way government spending works there it may or may not be in a technical recession. So foreign capital flight into US equities has been massive. AI optimism is masking that simple fact. Either the US economy will be a bulwark and stop the global downturn and pull everyone else out of it, or it will be the last domino to fall, and at that point you'll see a larger bear market than during a normal US recession, because of all the foreign inflows that have boosted stocks in the last 12 months. When I look at today's freight and manufacturing data, I think the latter is more likely. Maybe 70/30 odds. I hope anyone still invested in mag 7 has stop losses in place.
yeah even the US is in recession apart from government spending and to some extent the US consumer maxing out on their credit cards - that's not going to last another quarter!
wrong about the recession - the global economy is absolutely already in a recession - you just have to ignore the US GDP and unemployment date from the FED and government and look at real figures - or look at the GDI or unemployment figures at the State level. You think it's only the Chinese that cook their books to make things look better than they really are? this was the case in 07 /08 also - the initial figures were always way much higher than the revisions later on!!!
Starting to realise the fed are using forward guidance to guide the economy in the way they want it to go. The question becomes when we get to March what happens when they postpone hikes to June, September or next year. It’s going to reach a point where the markets won’t believe their forward guidance. This year could be huge for stocks. But it might take the whole year for markets to realise that cuts aren’t coming.
As it is an election year, I don't think they want to give Trump the glory of cutting rates so will do it before he becomes President. Unless the Matrix don't allow him to become President, then a delay would make sense...
the US economy is not an island - it is absolutely tied to the rest of the global economy, so as the global economy (and apple) goes, so does the US stock market - it's just topping out now. - long way down from here as we enter a major recession - why? because the US economy is massively unsustainable as it's based on vast amounts of government, corporate and consumer debt that was bought at low interest rates and those rates have just increased by 500% in the last two years - this is about to explode big time! All the big wall street and USG insiders and at the FED - all those insider traders who really know what's going on - have all just massively sold all or most of their shares - in the last three months!!!
Massive immigration is keeping Oz and Canada afloat - in Oz we have negative GDP/capita so GDP would be negative if not for the increase in population - great interview thanks
The fact that you use the description as 'massivrly, massively, massively , massively....is a blatant exaggeration... I will guess that many readers clicked and scanned elsewhere.
If CPI falls to sub 3% why keep real rates at 2.5%, if there is no inherent inflationary pressure? If the energy cracks this year (geopolitics is the only thing keeping oil afloat, there is a good chance of OPEC+ unity cracking for good), than CPI is going sub 2%. How does that compute with 5.5% Fed Funds? Sorry but Brigden is off base here.
Brigden is my favourite Economist and everytime i have followed his advice, i have made money. Many thanks for getting him on your show.
It's a pleasure to observe two mature, serious men who are not attempting to con their viewers into believing that we have a GOOD ECONOMY.
19:20 CEO only cares about stock prices. When stocks go up, CEOs hire, down, fire 20:40 Tim Fiori econ calls 23:00 structural bear mkt for bonds 24:00 US fighting 3 wars 25:00 interest shot up, no effect on homebuilders 27:20 goods inflation low, service inflation hi 37:00 gold. Rate cuts built in USD 38:15 UK econ 40:00 European companies cannot price gouge or collude 45:40 UK, Canada, US resiliency; accumulated wealth 47:45 most consumers don't count anyway. The spending by the wealthy matters. 50:40 labor mkt will dictate goldilocks 55:30 correlation btw stocks and bonds
US equities are the long end of a whip that is cracking. The UK, Germany, and France are all in recession now. China, well, it's certainly not doing well economically, but the way government spending works there it may or may not be in a technical recession. So foreign capital flight into US equities has been massive. AI optimism is masking that simple fact. Either the US economy will be a bulwark and stop the global downturn and pull everyone else out of it, or it will be the last domino to fall, and at that point you'll see a larger bear market than during a normal US recession, because of all the foreign inflows that have boosted stocks in the last 12 months. When I look at today's freight and manufacturing data, I think the latter is more likely. Maybe 70/30 odds. I hope anyone still invested in mag 7 has stop losses in place.
The US should always be the last domino due to their ability to use fiscal policy more liberally (due to the exorbitant privilege)?
yeah even the US is in recession apart from government spending and to some extent the US consumer maxing out on their credit cards - that's not going to last another quarter!
I think he nailed this analysis.
wrong about the recession - the global economy is absolutely already in a recession - you just have to ignore the US GDP and unemployment date from the FED and government and look at real figures - or look at the GDI or unemployment figures at the State level. You think it's only the Chinese that cook their books to make things look better than they really are? this was the case in 07 /08 also - the initial figures were always way much higher than the revisions later on!!!
Starting to realise the fed are using forward guidance to guide the economy in the way they want it to go. The question becomes when we get to March what happens when they postpone hikes to June, September or next year. It’s going to reach a point where the markets won’t believe their forward guidance. This year could be huge for stocks. But it might take the whole year for markets to realise that cuts aren’t coming.
The FED pretends that they are in charge of rates, but they're not - the global bond market is in charge of rates
As it is an election year, I don't think they want to give Trump the glory of cutting rates so will do it before he becomes President. Unless the Matrix don't allow him to become President, then a delay would make sense...
the US economy is not an island - it is absolutely tied to the rest of the global economy, so as the global economy (and apple) goes, so does the US stock market - it's just topping out now. - long way down from here as we enter a major recession - why? because the US economy is massively unsustainable as it's based on vast amounts of government, corporate and consumer debt that was bought at low interest rates and those rates have just increased by 500% in the last two years - this is about to explode big time! All the big wall street and USG insiders and at the FED - all those insider traders who really know what's going on - have all just massively sold all or most of their shares - in the last three months!!!
Massive immigration is keeping Oz and Canada afloat - in Oz we have negative GDP/capita so GDP would be negative if not for the increase in population - great interview thanks
Negative GDP per capita here in Canada too
The fact that you use the description as
'massivrly, massively, massively , massively....is a blatant exaggeration...
I will guess that many readers clicked and scanned elsewhere.
It was only 3x massively. Stop blatantly exaggerating.
If CPI falls to sub 3% why keep real rates at 2.5%, if there is no inherent inflationary pressure? If the energy cracks this year (geopolitics is the only thing keeping oil afloat, there is a good chance of OPEC+ unity cracking for good), than CPI is going sub 2%. How does that compute with 5.5% Fed Funds? Sorry but Brigden is off base here.
Some say the market is going to bull run
This guy is never right. At least he’s arrogant.
Anyone that is realistic about the markets and economy is always wrong according to people like you that are too weak to handle the truth
He was very right end of 2021