I know people are rooting for Margaret, and they believe demi can’t get it without her But the fact that Mubi doesn’t even mention Margaret in their fyc ads, says a lot
MUBI's FYC says "All categories including..." They will adjust their FYC depending on the potential nominations in each respective category during awards season.
Love love LOVE this collab! Fantastic conversation gentlemen! When it comes to Ariana Grande, I think people don’t realize that even though she is new to the film world, she actually did a decent amount of Broadway as a child and teen. It could wind up being she sweeps and it turns into a Barbra Streisand situation for Funny Girl. If not then definitely noms of course and hopefully a win somewhere in there! Cheers! 🎥🥂
I don’t know if we can put Ariana in without Cynthia, it is possible for sure, but it wouldn’t feel right. Still cannot believe you doubted AG in any way 😂 shame shame shame!!! Oscar thoughts mostly lol I do think Isabella gets in guys.
cause 1. Da'Vine won last year and she hadn't had any career narative either 2. "Wicked" is going to be a movie which is going to do well with SAG voters
@@mati321 ) Da'vine swept the critics circle awards, that gave her a push. Also who was her competition? Emily blunt and her 10 minute performance, danielle brooks the one with a movie that flopped at the box office and underperformed during the season, jodie foster an already awarded actor who just had a coattail nomination 2) Everybody said the same thing about barbie lmaooo, remind me what happened
You’re correct, but Ariana Grande actually does have a “career narrative” in that no one expected her to be as amazing as she was because she’s a pop singer. That is a “career narrative”. And SAG also loves its cultural icons, which Grande is
@@RMJH96 Ariana debose only competition at sag was kirsten dunst, and unlike kirsten, debose had the better performance and was the actress with the most awards during the entire awards season
Lead Actress: Mikey Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande Lead Actor: Thimothée Chalamet Supporting Actor: Guy Pearce Best Picture: Anora Ensemble: Wicked / Emilia Perez
My predictions- Best Actress- Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) Angelina Jolie (Maria) Mikey Madison (Anora) Demi Moore (The Substance) Winner: Mikey Madison (Anora) Alts: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) Best Actor- Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) Winner: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) Alts: Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) Best Supporting Actress- Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) Ariana Grande (Wicked) Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) Winner: Ariana Grande (Wicked) Alts: Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabela Rossellini (Conclave) Best Supporting Actor- Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) Winner: Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) Alts: Yura Borisov (Anora), Stanley Tucci (Conclave) Best Ensemble- Anora Conclave Emilia Pérez Sing Sing Wicked Winner: Wicked Alts: A Complete Unknown, Saturday Night
I think describing Grande’s performance as the “showier” one and dismissing Erivo’s performance as largely “reactive” with one big moment at the end, is a huge disservice to/ underestimation of what Cynthia Erivo brings to the screen in “Wicked”! Ari is the surprise performance of the movie, no doubt, but Erivo, who don’t forget is already a double-Oscar nominee and just an Oscar shy of being an EGOT winner at 37. And she’s coming in with a performance that is so compelling and singular, that captures something so real and beautiful, that even when the filmcraft behind and around her get occasionally indulgent, you still believe her. Elphaba and Glinda were always the two make-it-or-break-it roles for “Wicked,” and they both truly *made it.* Ari deserves her flowers. But when it comes to acting and vocals, the emotional core of at least part one of “Wicked” is Cynthia Erivo!
I doubt selena misses sag Yes she missed at the sag before, but the tv branch at sag does not vote for the film branch There’s different voters for both branches, if the tv branch vote for film, ariana would be ignored too for her current popstar image
Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.
I don't understand why everyone thinks that the Actors on Actors thing is reflective of potential award voting. Voting is anonymous, it's not like anyone or their publicist is going to be worried about getting blacklisted or having bad publicity or whatever.
I feel like people are moving the goal posts a bit unfairly when it comes to Grande in Wicked. Lots of ppl have won Oscars for their debut performances. Barbra Streisand won an Oscar for her film debut in Funny Girl. Same with Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls. Eva Marie Saint won an Oscar for her debut in On the Waterfront. Same with Lupita Nyongo and Marlee Matlin. And it’s not like Ariana has just been sitting around twiddling her thumbs on Victorious and Sam & Cat; she’s considered by many to be a pop icon with one of the greatest voices in modern pop music. She was just named the 9th biggest pop star of the 21st century by Billboard, coming in ahead of icons like Adele and Eminem. All that to say, her entertainment bonafides are legit so I’m glad that people are taking her seriously.
You cannot make a case for Ariana, comparing her to Jennifer Hudson. Jennifer hudson was not a widely known artist, just a talented american idol contestant that was unfairly eliminated, and that made the press build a narrative for her, meanwhile the one is a known popstar that had a succesful musical album just months ago And jennifer was in a "serious" film, not a fantasy film
And ppl forget there was a lot of outrage over Dreamgirls being snubbed for Best Picture and Eddie Murphy losing Supporting Actor. Dreamgirls was a major competitor in the 2007 awards race. I’d argue Beyoncé was probably like in 6th place for a Best Actress Oscar nod.
@ I can make a case for Toni. I really liked Maggie in Sherrybaby but even for 2007, I think that film was a bit “much” for the Oscars. Had Dreamgirls gotten into Best Picture, Beyoncé would’ve gotten the Oscar nod because let’s be real, the Oscars only gave Dreamgirls 3 Original Song nominations to avoid the Best Picture and Lead Actress nominations. Then it didn’t even win Original Song, a freaking documentary did. Take away the other 2 Song nominations, Bey pushes Penelope Cruz out and The Queen gets pushed out of Best Picture. Dreamgirls is still the only film in oscar history to have the most nominations without being nominated for Picture.
@@MelancholicAwesomnes who said 3rd? I said 6th place, meaning she was on the cusp of getting a nomination. Dreamgirls had the most nominations at 07 Oscars yet wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture despite winning the GG for MP M/C, getting into SAG Ensemble, DGA and PGA? The only reason it didn’t get into Best Picture and Beyoncé didn’t get into Best Actress is because the Oscars decided to give it 3 Original Song nominations and they awarded that category to a documentary about Al Gore. You can go back and read practically any review/article about the 2007 awards season and most of them will at least agree Dreamgirls deserved a Best Picture nomination. I’m not arguing Beyoncé would’ve won Best Actress because Helen Mirren swept that season, but Penelope Cruz was the filler nomination that year. Volver is a solid performance but Beyoncé could’ve easily took her slot.
Yall are sleeping on Kidman. She has never won a film SAG. She has never even won SAG Ensemble. Ironic bc shes a Hollywood Icon whose won almost all the other awards. Once SAG realizes that she has never won it can easily sway SAG viters because Jolie already has a SAG.
@@breensprout they have her #4-#5 and basically said she won't win SAG. I'm like she's actually very competitive to win SAG even if she misses the Oscar
Unfortunately, I have a feeling Nicole Kidman will miss SAG again this year as it is so competitive that only performances that stir peoples hearts that will make a mark.
@DocVancouver In your dream. Winning Venice volpi cup is like a vaccine immune actors against any snub. She's in and actors love her since she has been working with most of them for years. Haters are haters
Love your big swing for Kingsley Ben-Adir. I actually thought that both he and Lynch delivered but these awards have short memory; so good on you for remembering. Meanwhile, as a regular TFD watcher, I know you're not a fan of biopics so I anticipated your response lol
One thing to note about danielle deadwyler is that shes in an august wilson play turned movie, and actors, much more than directors or writers, have a lot of reverence for the greats of theater, just because theres more crossover there, which could help her chances. The play the piano lesson commands a huge amount of respect within theater circles, and many of the actors will have played the scenes she is performing in the movie in their own acting classes.
Man I love Oscar season!! So glad for these collab talks. MY SAG PREDICTION WINNERS: Best Actress - Mikey Madison Best Actor - Adrien Brody Best Supporting Actress - Zoe Saldana Best Supporting Actor - Guy Pearce
Dune Part Two should win ensemble if not the individual categories. The cast is the best this year and they all delivered exceptional performances. It should be like The Return of the King.
@@vajinderkaursamra8075 agree but warner is prioritizing only denis and the film Not the actors Plus it was an early release and it doesn’t have narrative like EEAO
@@vajinderkaursamra8075 "Indie movie with an Asian American cast getting awards buzz" "Indie movie with an Asian American cast, that defied expectations, becomes a box office hit" "Indie movie with an Asian American cast, that defied expectations, sweeps the awards guild, SAG is next" "Michelle Yeoh first asian actress to be nominated for an Academy Award" "Retired child actor comes back to acting and deliver an oscar worthy performance" "Jamie Lee Curtis possibly getting a first oscar nomination"
I love her in that movie but I don’t think she has a chance of getting in at SAG. She has a much better chance of getting the Oscar nom if she can pull off the BAFTA/Critics Choice combo. I think she could even win BAFTA which would be awesome!
For anyone who hasn’t seen the play Wicked, be aware that Glinda has more to do in Act 1, where Elphaba is more front and center in Act 2. I Grande is not considered for Wicked, Part1, I doubt she will be considered for Part 2. On the other hand, I would love to see Cynthia Erivo considered for Part 1, but her bigger dramatic scenes will happen in Part 2, and will give her more gravitas for best actress next year.
@@DocVancouver everyone has their favorite "more deserving" performance, these awards are rarely based on pure merit, although that doesn’t deny the fact that Ariana and Cynthia gave one of the best performances of the year
Yall are joking... Moore is a Hollywood Icon and more importantly, she is well liked and she is campaigning. Yall cannot say she has 0 chance to get the nomination, especially with the win. If she campaigns hard, she can easily win. Yall were so dismissive over Jamie Lee Curtis. I knew before the globes that JLC was winning the Oscar, and then every pubdit lost their mind when JLC eon SAG and then dismissed it as a fluke when the passion was enouhh for her to win the Oscar. Point is Demi is very SAG competitive. She can legit win SAG and than lose the Oscar to the BAFTA winner similar to Close vs Colman
@Sharpe1502 i think Baptiste could legitimately win the bafta. She is far more respected and celebrated by the Brits than Erivo is. Also the performance screams BAFTA, And MJB woukd be the first Black actress to win. It really depends if Bafta sees the film. I expect Emilia Perez to underwhelm and probably only get Saldana for supporting. Kidman is a bafta winner and very respected and Mikey will have enough passion to at least get the nomination. However Mikey will only won the vafta if she's the frontrunner and sweeps otherwise it'll be a different winner between SAG and bafta. Saoirse is highly respected so she'll probably get in Lead UNLESS Blitz pops off and voters feel like they'll take care of her in supporting. But remember she got lead nom as a kid for lovely bones. Jolie is hit or miss because Stewart missed BAFTAs longlist but Portman got the nom. I highly imagine Fernanda Torres will get the international slot like last year was Hueller. Also Tilda is adored by bafta and i cant imagine Room Next Door gets ignored by bafta of all places. So where does this leave us? 1. Marianne Jean Baptiste 2. Nicole Kidman 3. Mikey Madison 4. Fernanda Torres. 5. Tilda Swinton 6. Let's discuss some more ... I think these are the safe/logical top 5 for Bafta with smart choice being between Ronan or Jolie. However I think there's a passion contender that may not get ignored. And I think Demi Moore has been very aggressive with the campaigning and she can get that slot. I think Moore is SAG winning competitive. She has no chance to win the BAFTA, but if she gets nominated and wins SAG she'll probably win the Oscar. If she gets SAG win and misses the bafta nom she'll probably be like Gladstone and lose Oscar in a Close vs Colman way. That said for now until Golden Globes decides their nominees/winners on paper Moore makes the most sense for me to put as the slot. Moore can easily miss the nom, but if she's actually win competitive for the Oscar the support will get her the bafta nom. So for now I have Moore in the 6 for the bafta nomination
@Sharpe1502 update I double checked British Independent Film Awards. They LOVED Hard Truths and The Outrun. So it's being seen. That means Ronan is more competitive for the nom than perhaps Tilda would be. 1. Marianne Jean Baptiste 2. Kidman 3. Ronan 4. Fernanda Torres 5. Mikey Madison So I would debate Moore, Swinton, and Jolie would be the real contenders with my leaning towards Moore now
Mikey Madison is not winning the Oscar. They are not giving this girl that has not done anything substantial Yet and has never been nominated for anything before a best actress oscar. Let's be so for real. Angelina Jolie has this one already sewn up.
The closest precent to Mikey Madison is actually Brie Larson in terms of exposure and fame pre-Oscar. Mikey is in the same age bracket that Brie was when she won.
you're right that it should be, but i think their point is that the overdue narrative does influence voting, whether we like it or not. that's why so many people get "consolation" prizes at the oscars, too, winning the next year for a lesser performance after people realize they made a mistake the previous year.
Emilia is fading? It’s the most awarded film for the season so far, with 30 awards Let’s be serious for a minute, those social media haters of this movie are not academy or sag voters
It won’t be the most awarded by the end, but it will place at the top 5 for sure Also do people realize emilia won audiences awards at 5 different film festivals , including one from Merida in Mexico? That polarized “response” does not take effect in real world
I don't think anyone will get nominated as best supporting actor from Conclave. Stanley Tucci doesn't even have the most memorable supporting male performance in Conclave. Carlos Diehz, Lucian Msamati and Sergio Castellito all stand out more.
This is what I mean about music biopics the Dune pt2 was great and Tim was great in it a complete unknown he's great but the movie's mid so he should be nominated for Dune pt 2 that's the winner
I dont think Angelina was that good in Maria. The film was boring and I didn’t think it was an Oscar performance at all. I can not believe Saoirse has been forgotten. It is really ashame. Also Kate was great in Lee.
You keep bringing Amy Adams everytime although her movie flopped and her role playing a dog was pathetic. Are you predicting or nominating the actors you want to see nominated?
Idk everyone is comparing demi Moore and the substance to every other horror snub this is litterly get out all over again a horror movie with a relevant message im least seeing picture actress screenplay and make up
Probably it’s too old now to even matter, but the establishment were not at all happy with Angelina’s frankly bizarre behaviour at the Oscars the last time she won, back in the day, and that certainly worked against her for quite a while!! Of course, totally unfair to hold a mature woman accountable now for something she did as a rebellious youth!!
I personally do not get the awards buzz for ariana's performance. Cynthia i kinda see it Ariana is a good singer and did good in the musical performances, but her performance fell flat during some scenes, the dramatic ones where she had a hard time emoting, in comparison of cynthia
just because she's not screaming crying breaking down doesn't mean she's falling flat, besides probably giving the best comedic performance of the year, she does also nail the more nuanced serious scenes, you can feel her sorrow all over down to her voice whilst she's singing in operatic soprano mind you, it's so well done actually
@dana17958 neither was cynthia, and she didn't have issues during the last scenes. In side by side, ariana fell flat But that's understandable, cynthia is the most experienced actor The best comedic performances of the year belongs to kieran culkin and amy adam
@@miraget yes cynthia shined more than anyone in those scenes, but that doesn’t mean Ariana had any issues or fell flat, she delivered everything that was demanded of her flawlessly. No supporting role has been noted as a standout in their movie as much as hers has this year
@@dana17958 zoe saldana, margaret qualley even got more raves than demi from critics, danielle deadwyler and joan chen (basically their entire buzz is based on that, cause their movies ain't no players), kieran culkin despite it's a co lead (but you could make the same case about ariana), denzel washington, clarence maclin, natasha lyonne, jeremy strong (many referring him as the best villanous performance of the decade) So no, it's not true ellen
You don't really need to see a performance to know the industry is going to vote for it. As long there is a big talk about it and it's a respected actor, you can predict it with 90% accuracy.
No, I see that happening too. Kristen missed SAG for Spencer and I was in shock and nervous about her Oscar chances…but then Beverly Leslie😅 announced her Oscar nom and all was right. Plus she is giving Diana for the ages and it was such a transformation and clear display of her talent that I saw how career vs performance can be the difference, and now I could see her missing at SAG, but getting in at Oscars. Where as Jolie is JOLIE and much beloved for a much longer time, and her performance in Maria is very worthy, undeniably so and thus I could with confidence believe Angie would get in. Pablo’s trifecta of Natalie KStew and now Jolie is quite magnificent and I think she will get in at SAG❤
IMO, Nicole Kidman is over-exposed and I think even her fellow actors are getting bored - could be wrong, just never her fan. I hope Demi wins best actress, Timothee Best Actor and Edward Norton in Supporting. Is S. Ronan out of contention in either Actress or Supporting?
I saw A Real Pain last week. Kieran Culkin plays the same obnoxious character he played in Succession, so no real stretch there. Jesse Eisenberg was boring, the film was boring. I don’t understand the hype.
Such a normie and predictable move to still be dogpiling on *Emilia Perez* at this point. The herd mentality of it all is anything but cool-honestly, it’s just pathetic. I really wish Gen Z filmbros would slowly disappear, though-always so boring, predictable, and completely biased
It is sad to see that you are pretty much dismissive of Fernanda Torres getting nominated in “I’m still here” I thought she gave the best performance of the year.
Do you realize her movie is being released days after Oscar nominations voting closes, right? What are the chance that the acting branch, mostly composed of busy actors, at the academy watch her movie? Sony is clearly just campaigning for international feature
She’s great and I think if she gets BAFTA she could be a threat for the Oscar’s nom, but there is no way she’s getting a SAG nomination. They historically do not take to foreign language performances- like last year they snubbed Sandra Huller who was probably in 3 place to win the Oscar. I could even see Gascon possibly being snubbed because her film is also foreign language. It’s stupid but SAG is very American and English focused.
Brian! 1 hour and 24 minutes? Thank you for the Sunday treat! ❤
loved this collab brian! i watch both channels so this was a real treat. please do more collabs for other upcoming awards 🤗
Demo Moore is one actress that SAG voters will vote for..
The collaboration that we all need in our lives.
Great collaboration with the Film Drunk! Fully entertained
this was fun! really loved watching this. thanks for a great collab, you two!
Finally! Wonderful! I love you both guys - so great to see your collab
I know people are rooting for Margaret, and they believe demi can’t get it without her
But the fact that Mubi doesn’t even mention Margaret in their fyc ads, says a lot
MUBI's FYC says "All categories including..." They will adjust their FYC depending on the potential nominations in each respective category during awards season.
They really ought to go for score harder, too.
Your collaborations are so great. This was so much fun to watch.
love love love this collab!!! two of my favorite youtubers
Love love LOVE this collab! Fantastic conversation gentlemen! When it comes to Ariana Grande, I think people don’t realize that even though she is new to the film world, she actually did a decent amount of Broadway as a child and teen. It could wind up being she sweeps and it turns into a Barbra Streisand situation for Funny Girl. If not then definitely noms of course and hopefully a win somewhere in there! Cheers! 🎥🥂
Guy Pearce has gotten big awards before. He won an Emmy back in like 2011 for Mildred Pierce (the HBO adaptation with Kate Winslet).
Yay! Two of my favorite Oscar Pundits in one video!
I feel like Demi Moore could win SAG!
That definitely could happen
Demi in The Substance feels like a performance that will win a dozen critics groups awards and then not show up anywhere else.
@@AlexandreFilho1705same thing with Toni Collette and Lupita N’yongo
@@AlexandreFilho1705people love Demi. The movie is super popular and everyone’s watching it and enjoy it. Sag will go for it
She’s got the career narrative for sure. This is her big comeback which SAG voters love to reward
I don’t know if we can put Ariana in without Cynthia, it is possible for sure, but it wouldn’t feel right. Still cannot believe you doubted AG in any way 😂 shame shame shame!!!
Oscar thoughts mostly lol
I do think Isabella gets in guys.
"Sing Sing" getting a rerelease makes sense since it never got a proper release
Is a Sing Sing “rerelease” confirmed? I’ve heard nothing about this
Love this collaboration. Your energies work very well together. Hope to see more from you guys!
Sag tends to reward actors with a career narrative
So i don’t know why people are predicting ariana to win here, let’s be serious
cause
1. Da'Vine won last year and she hadn't had any career narative either
2. "Wicked" is going to be a movie which is going to do well with SAG voters
Ariana Debose says hello
@@mati321
) Da'vine swept the critics circle awards, that gave her a push. Also who was her competition? Emily blunt and her 10 minute performance, danielle brooks the one with a movie that flopped at the box office and underperformed during the season, jodie foster an already awarded actor who just had a coattail nomination
2) Everybody said the same thing about barbie lmaooo, remind me what happened
You’re correct, but Ariana Grande actually does have a “career narrative” in that no one expected her to be as amazing as she was because she’s a pop singer. That is a “career narrative”. And SAG also loves its cultural icons, which Grande is
@@RMJH96 Ariana debose only competition at sag was kirsten dunst, and unlike kirsten, debose had the better performance and was the actress with the most awards during the entire awards season
Lead Actress: Mikey
Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande
Lead Actor: Thimothée Chalamet
Supporting Actor: Guy Pearce
Best Picture: Anora
Ensemble: Wicked / Emilia Perez
My predictions-
Best Actress-
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Angelina Jolie (Maria)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Winner: Mikey Madison (Anora)
Alts: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
Best Actor-
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Winner: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Alts: Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Best Supporting Actress-
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Winner: Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Alts: Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabela Rossellini (Conclave)
Best Supporting Actor-
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Winner: Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
Alts: Yura Borisov (Anora), Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
Best Ensemble-
Anora
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Sing Sing
Wicked
Winner: Wicked
Alts: A Complete Unknown, Saturday Night
I think describing Grande’s performance as the “showier” one and dismissing Erivo’s performance as largely “reactive” with one big moment at the end, is a huge disservice to/
underestimation of what Cynthia Erivo brings to the screen in “Wicked”! Ari is the surprise performance of the movie, no doubt, but Erivo, who don’t forget is already a double-Oscar nominee and just an Oscar shy of being an EGOT winner at 37. And she’s coming in with a performance that is so compelling and singular, that captures something so real and beautiful, that even when the filmcraft behind and around her get occasionally indulgent, you still believe her. Elphaba and Glinda were always the two make-it-or-break-it roles for “Wicked,” and they both truly *made it.* Ari deserves her flowers. But when it comes to acting and vocals, the emotional core of at least part one of “Wicked” is Cynthia Erivo!
I doubt selena misses sag
Yes she missed at the sag before, but the tv branch at sag does not vote for the film branch
There’s different voters for both branches, if the tv branch vote for film, ariana would be ignored too for her current popstar image
Thank God for these long videos. Make prediction videos long again
brian is just so much more expressive and funny than a few months ago
Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.
I don't understand why everyone thinks that the Actors on Actors thing is reflective of potential award voting. Voting is anonymous, it's not like anyone or their publicist is going to be worried about getting blacklisted or having bad publicity or whatever.
Love the conversation 💜
I feel like people are moving the goal posts a bit unfairly when it comes to Grande in Wicked. Lots of ppl have won Oscars for their debut performances. Barbra Streisand won an Oscar for her film debut in Funny Girl. Same with Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls. Eva Marie Saint won an Oscar for her debut in On the Waterfront. Same with Lupita Nyongo and Marlee Matlin. And it’s not like Ariana has just been sitting around twiddling her thumbs on Victorious and Sam & Cat; she’s considered by many to be a pop icon with one of the greatest voices in modern pop music. She was just named the 9th biggest pop star of the 21st century by Billboard, coming in ahead of icons like Adele and Eminem. All that to say, her entertainment bonafides are legit so I’m glad that people are taking her seriously.
You cannot make a case for Ariana, comparing her to Jennifer Hudson. Jennifer hudson was not a widely known artist, just a talented american idol contestant that was unfairly eliminated, and that made the press build a narrative for her, meanwhile the one is a known popstar that had a succesful musical album just months ago
And jennifer was in a "serious" film, not a fantasy film
And ppl forget there was a lot of outrage over Dreamgirls being snubbed for Best Picture and Eddie Murphy losing Supporting Actor. Dreamgirls was a major competitor in the 2007 awards race. I’d argue Beyoncé was probably like in 6th place for a Best Actress Oscar nod.
@@SS4Luxray Beyonce was never in 3rd place at all...
@@SS4Luxray i'm not sure about the last part, the 6th slot was probably Toni Collete's in little miss sunshine, or Maggie Gyllenhall for sherrybaby
@ I can make a case for Toni. I really liked Maggie in Sherrybaby but even for 2007, I think that film was a bit “much” for the Oscars. Had Dreamgirls gotten into Best Picture, Beyoncé would’ve gotten the Oscar nod because let’s be real, the Oscars only gave Dreamgirls 3 Original Song nominations to avoid the Best Picture and Lead Actress nominations. Then it didn’t even win Original Song, a freaking documentary did. Take away the other 2 Song nominations, Bey pushes Penelope Cruz out and The Queen gets pushed out of Best Picture. Dreamgirls is still the only film in oscar history to have the most nominations without being nominated for Picture.
@@MelancholicAwesomnes who said 3rd? I said 6th place, meaning she was on the cusp of getting a nomination. Dreamgirls had the most nominations at 07 Oscars yet wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture despite winning the GG for MP M/C, getting into SAG Ensemble, DGA and PGA? The only reason it didn’t get into Best Picture and Beyoncé didn’t get into Best Actress is because the Oscars decided to give it 3 Original Song nominations and they awarded that category to a documentary about Al Gore. You can go back and read practically any review/article about the 2007 awards season and most of them will at least agree Dreamgirls deserved a Best Picture nomination. I’m not arguing Beyoncé would’ve won Best Actress because Helen Mirren swept that season, but Penelope Cruz was the filler nomination that year. Volver is a solid performance but Beyoncé could’ve easily took her slot.
Predicting Saoirse Ronan to be in a similiar position to Paul Mescal for Aftersun and sneak into the Oscars, maybe just an Irish bias tho 🤷🇮🇪
The difference is that the movie itself had a lot of passion behind it, while The Outrun is Saoirse or bust.
Yall are sleeping on Kidman. She has never won a film SAG. She has never even won SAG Ensemble. Ironic bc shes a Hollywood Icon whose won almost all the other awards. Once SAG realizes that she has never won it can easily sway SAG viters because Jolie already has a SAG.
didn't they both have her in?
@@breensprout they have her #4-#5 and basically said she won't win SAG. I'm like she's actually very competitive to win SAG even if she misses the Oscar
Unfortunately, I have a feeling Nicole Kidman will miss SAG again this year as it is so competitive that only performances that stir peoples hearts that will make a mark.
@DocVancouver
In your dream. Winning Venice volpi cup is like a vaccine immune actors against any snub. She's in and actors love her since she has been working with most of them for years. Haters are haters
I agree, I think she could win the best actress SAG this year.
Love your big swing for Kingsley Ben-Adir. I actually thought that both he and Lynch delivered but these awards have short memory; so good on you for remembering. Meanwhile, as a regular TFD watcher, I know you're not a fan of biopics so I anticipated your response lol
Lead actress Angelina Demi or maybe Cynthia
Supporting Actress Ariana Grande
Supporting actor Kieran Culkin
Lead Actor Adrien Brody
Best Cast:
Dune pt2
Gaidator 2
Wicked
Emilia perez
Anora
The piano Lesson
One thing to note about danielle deadwyler is that shes in an august wilson play turned movie, and actors, much more than directors or writers, have a lot of reverence for the greats of theater, just because theres more crossover there, which could help her chances. The play the piano lesson commands a huge amount of respect within theater circles, and many of the actors will have played the scenes she is performing in the movie in their own acting classes.
I loved Igby Goes Down 😊
love this video
After watching The Outrun I really think it’s going to be a travesty if Saoirse does not make these lists. Take Angelina off. Give me Saoirse.
Man I love Oscar season!! So glad for these collab talks.
MY SAG PREDICTION WINNERS:
Best Actress - Mikey Madison
Best Actor - Adrien Brody
Best Supporting Actress - Zoe Saldana
Best Supporting Actor - Guy Pearce
FILM FAM!
It’s my favorite actor Jonathan Bailey from Wicked
Who would you like to win for the four main actor categories if one didn’t have to consider marketing and awards politics?
Dune Part Two should win ensemble if not the individual categories. The cast is the best this year and they all delivered exceptional performances. It should be like The Return of the King.
@@vajinderkaursamra8075 agree but warner is prioritizing only denis and the film
Not the actors
Plus it was an early release and it doesn’t have narrative like EEAO
@ What do you mean about EEAAO’s narrative?
@@vajinderkaursamra8075 "Indie movie with an Asian American cast getting awards buzz"
"Indie movie with an Asian American cast, that defied expectations, becomes a box office hit"
"Indie movie with an Asian American cast, that defied expectations, sweeps the awards guild, SAG is next"
"Michelle Yeoh first asian actress to be nominated for an Academy Award"
"Retired child actor comes back to acting and deliver an oscar worthy performance"
"Jamie Lee Curtis possibly getting a first oscar nomination"
@@thewstside You’re right but I’m hoping Dune 2 wins Picture and Director. It’s the best this year and should win rightfully.
I want it to go to Zoe Saldana 👀
Nicole is 2 in my mind
You didn't even mention Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Snubbing her performance in Hard Truths would be a crime.
I love her in that movie but I don’t think she has a chance of getting in at SAG. She has a much better chance of getting the Oscar nom if she can pull off the BAFTA/Critics Choice combo. I think she could even win BAFTA which would be awesome!
The Avengers are Assembling ❤
For anyone who hasn’t seen the play Wicked, be aware that Glinda has more to do in Act 1, where Elphaba is more front and center in Act 2. I Grande is not considered for Wicked, Part1, I doubt she will be considered for Part 2. On the other hand, I would love to see Cynthia Erivo considered for Part 1, but her bigger dramatic scenes will happen in Part 2, and will give her more gravitas for best actress next year.
I thought ariana will have more showy performances in part 2. On the whole it's more serious compared to part 1.
Best Actress = Pam Anderson
praying ariana wins
She won’t
@@dacrimsoncurse what if she does tho
Ariana grande will not win as their film is split into two. Also, there are other deserving performances than hers.
@@DocVancouver everyone has their favorite "more deserving" performance, these awards are rarely based on pure merit, although that doesn’t deny the fact that Ariana and Cynthia gave one of the best performances of the year
@@dana17958 well she wins a sag, so?
Man Coda came and went 😂 that’s on pace to be a forgotten best picture winner
I don’t think Daniel Craig can get in for Queer. But Daniel Queer for Craig can most certainly get in. 😆
Yall are joking... Moore is a Hollywood Icon and more importantly, she is well liked and she is campaigning.
Yall cannot say she has 0 chance to get the nomination, especially with the win.
If she campaigns hard, she can easily win. Yall were so dismissive over Jamie Lee Curtis. I knew before the globes that JLC was winning the Oscar, and then every pubdit lost their mind when JLC eon SAG and then dismissed it as a fluke when the passion was enouhh for her to win the Oscar.
Point is Demi is very SAG competitive. She can legit win SAG and than lose the Oscar to the BAFTA winner similar to Close vs Colman
I currently have Baptiste winning BAFTA. Do we think Baptiste is going to win Oscar though? Who is your BAFTA prediction?
@Sharpe1502 i think Baptiste could legitimately win the bafta. She is far more respected and celebrated by the Brits than Erivo is. Also the performance screams BAFTA, And MJB woukd be the first Black actress to win. It really depends if Bafta sees the film. I expect Emilia Perez to underwhelm and probably only get Saldana for supporting.
Kidman is a bafta winner and very respected and Mikey will have enough passion to at least get the nomination. However Mikey will only won the vafta if she's the frontrunner and sweeps otherwise it'll be a different winner between SAG and bafta.
Saoirse is highly respected so she'll probably get in Lead UNLESS Blitz pops off and voters feel like they'll take care of her in supporting. But remember she got lead nom as a kid for lovely bones.
Jolie is hit or miss because Stewart missed BAFTAs longlist but Portman got the nom. I highly imagine Fernanda Torres will get the international slot like last year was Hueller. Also Tilda is adored by bafta and i cant imagine Room Next Door gets ignored by bafta of all places. So where does this leave us?
1. Marianne Jean Baptiste
2. Nicole Kidman
3. Mikey Madison
4. Fernanda Torres.
5. Tilda Swinton
6. Let's discuss some more ...
I think these are the safe/logical top 5 for Bafta with smart choice being between Ronan or Jolie.
However I think there's a passion contender that may not get ignored. And I think Demi Moore has been very aggressive with the campaigning and she can get that slot. I think Moore is SAG winning competitive. She has no chance to win the BAFTA, but if she gets nominated and wins SAG she'll probably win the Oscar. If she gets SAG win and misses the bafta nom she'll probably be like Gladstone and lose Oscar in a Close vs Colman way. That said for now until Golden Globes decides their nominees/winners on paper Moore makes the most sense for me to put as the slot. Moore can easily miss the nom, but if she's actually win competitive for the Oscar the support will get her the bafta nom. So for now I have Moore in the 6 for the bafta nomination
@Sharpe1502 update I double checked British Independent Film Awards. They LOVED Hard Truths and The Outrun. So it's being seen. That means Ronan is more competitive for the nom than perhaps Tilda would be.
1. Marianne Jean Baptiste
2. Kidman
3. Ronan
4. Fernanda Torres
5. Mikey Madison
So I would debate Moore, Swinton, and Jolie would be the real contenders with my leaning towards Moore now
@@Sharpe1502definitely watch out for Baptiste. If she takes BAFTA then she’s a serious threat for Oscar if she can secure the nomination.
Mikey Madison is not winning the Oscar. They are not giving this girl that has not done anything substantial Yet and has never been nominated for anything before a best actress oscar. Let's be so for real. Angelina Jolie has this one already sewn up.
The closest precent to Mikey Madison is actually Brie Larson in terms of exposure and fame pre-Oscar. Mikey is in the same age bracket that Brie was when she won.
Why is it who is due. It’s should be who gives the best performance.
you're right that it should be, but i think their point is that the overdue narrative does influence voting, whether we like it or not. that's why so many people get "consolation" prizes at the oscars, too, winning the next year for a lesser performance after people realize they made a mistake the previous year.
Because there’s a lot of “best performances” so how do you narrow it down?
Kieran Culkin has never won an individual SAG award. No one from Succession ever did, although the show won the ensemble award twice.
Conclave is better than the brutalist honestly the brutalist is very been there done that
🙌🏼💯
MORE LOVE FOR QUEER
Emilia is fading? It’s the most awarded film for the season so far, with 30 awards
Let’s be serious for a minute, those social media haters of this movie are not academy or sag voters
Actresses are not gonna be voting for a man in drag For Best Actress 😂😂😂
It won’t be the most awarded by the end, but it will place at the top 5 for sure
Also do people realize emilia won audiences awards at 5 different film festivals , including one from Merida in Mexico?
That polarized “response” does not take effect in real world
Can you do a Elusive Oscar on Guy Pearce
I think Angelina will win SAG
I don't think anyone will get nominated as best supporting actor from Conclave. Stanley Tucci doesn't even have the most memorable supporting male performance in Conclave. Carlos Diehz, Lucian Msamati and Sergio Castellito all stand out more.
This is what I mean about music biopics the Dune pt2 was great and Tim was great in it a complete unknown he's great but the movie's mid so he should be nominated for Dune pt 2 that's the winner
I wish the Sag Awards wouldn’t exist. Too many unnecessary award shows.
1:04:45 To Leslie 🤭
Ok I am willing to understand to a certain degree why Cynthia may not get a nom, but Amy Adams getting a nom. Demi has a stronger chance than Amy.
Hoping Angelina Jolie will get sag
I dont think Angelina was that good in Maria. The film was boring and I didn’t think it was an Oscar performance at all. I can not believe Saoirse has been forgotten. It is really ashame. Also Kate was great in Lee.
So amy is giving an oscar performance but cynthia isnt? Hmmm thats quite a …. Take brian…
I don't care what people say, but I'm still pulling for Demi Moore.
No No No
Best actor 5 place Chris Hemsworth (Furiosa ) 😂😂😂
You keep bringing Amy Adams everytime although her movie flopped and her role playing a dog was pathetic. Are you predicting or nominating the actors you want to see nominated?
It hasn't even come out yet. What are you talking about flopped?
Second🎉
Idk everyone is comparing demi Moore and the substance to every other horror snub this is litterly get out all over again a horror movie with a relevant message im least seeing picture actress screenplay and make up
SAG gives out 6 nominations per category . Not 5 .. Jesus
Is that new? SAG has always been five nominations in the past.
Since when? It's always been 5 and I've heard nothing about it changing this year. "Jesus"
🤔
Probably it’s too old now to even matter, but the establishment were not at all happy with Angelina’s frankly bizarre behaviour at the Oscars the last time she won, back in the day, and that certainly worked against her for quite a while!! Of course, totally unfair to hold a mature woman accountable now for something she did as a rebellious youth!!
But she’s been nominated for lead actress since she won the supporting actress Oscar. So it’s not a thing.
You know what, with all the trash movies this year, there should be a Razzies prediction video
There are so many. Joker, argylle , Madame web ,
@@chrispa9573god was argyle really this year??? I feel like I haven’t thought about that movie in years already lol.
@@rebekahp4083 it was this year.
jesse is better than culkin in real pain tbh
I personally do not get the awards buzz for ariana's performance. Cynthia i kinda see it
Ariana is a good singer and did good in the musical performances, but her performance fell flat during some scenes, the dramatic ones where she had a hard time emoting, in comparison of cynthia
just because she's not screaming crying breaking down doesn't mean she's falling flat, besides probably giving the best comedic performance of the year, she does also nail the more nuanced serious scenes, you can feel her sorrow all over down to her voice whilst she's singing in operatic soprano mind you, it's so well done actually
@dana17958 neither was cynthia, and she didn't have issues during the last scenes. In side by side, ariana fell flat
But that's understandable, cynthia is the most experienced actor
The best comedic performances of the year belongs to kieran culkin and amy adam
@@miraget yes cynthia shined more than anyone in those scenes, but that doesn’t mean Ariana had any issues or fell flat, she delivered everything that was demanded of her flawlessly. No supporting role has been noted as a standout in their movie as much as hers has this year
@@dana17958 zoe saldana, margaret qualley even got more raves than demi from critics, danielle deadwyler and joan chen (basically their entire buzz is based on that, cause their movies ain't no players), kieran culkin despite it's a co lead (but you could make the same case about ariana), denzel washington, clarence maclin, natasha lyonne, jeremy strong (many referring him as the best villanous performance of the decade)
So no, it's not true ellen
That's who glinda is..and Ariana embodied her perfectly.
Is it funny that you have not watched Maria and yet you are confident in Angelina jolie performance to get in sag?🤔🤔🤔
You don't really need to see a performance to know the industry is going to vote for it. As long there is a big talk about it and it's a respected actor, you can predict it with 90% accuracy.
@@mateussantiagolage1005 Exactly. It's a combination of a lot of factors.
No, I see that happening too. Kristen missed SAG for Spencer and I was in shock and nervous about her Oscar chances…but then Beverly Leslie😅 announced her Oscar nom and all was right. Plus she is giving Diana for the ages and it was such a transformation and clear display of her talent that I saw how career vs performance can be the difference, and now I could see her missing at SAG, but getting in at Oscars.
Where as Jolie is JOLIE and much beloved for a much longer time, and her performance in Maria is very worthy, undeniably so and thus I could with confidence believe Angie would get in. Pablo’s trifecta of Natalie KStew and now Jolie is quite magnificent and I think she will get in at SAG❤
sorry but the Film Drunk literally said he saw it. also agree with the comments above 🤷🏻♂️
@ I am referring to Brian 🤨
Did I watch the same Selena Gomez performance? She couldn’t even speak the language and her character is the worst part of that film.
IMO, Nicole Kidman is over-exposed and I think even her fellow actors are getting bored - could be wrong, just never her fan. I hope Demi wins best actress, Timothee Best Actor and Edward Norton in Supporting. Is S. Ronan out of contention in either Actress or Supporting?
I saw A Real Pain last week. Kieran Culkin plays the same obnoxious character he played in Succession, so no real stretch there. Jesse Eisenberg was boring, the film was boring. I don’t understand the hype.
Such a normie and predictable move to still be dogpiling on *Emilia Perez* at this point. The herd mentality of it all is anything but cool-honestly, it’s just pathetic. I really wish Gen Z filmbros would slowly disappear, though-always so boring, predictable, and completely biased
Demi Moore or Cynthia Erivo will win SAG for best actress.
It is sad to see that you are pretty much dismissive of Fernanda Torres getting nominated in “I’m still here” I thought she gave the best performance of the year.
This is SAG, tho. It makes sense she would omitted.
Do you realize her movie is being released days after Oscar nominations voting closes, right?
What are the chance that the acting branch, mostly composed of busy actors, at the academy watch her movie?
Sony is clearly just campaigning for international feature
She’s great and I think if she gets BAFTA she could be a threat for the Oscar’s nom, but there is no way she’s getting a SAG nomination. They historically do not take to foreign language performances- like last year they snubbed Sandra Huller who was probably in 3 place to win the Oscar. I could even see Gascon possibly being snubbed because her film is also foreign language. It’s stupid but SAG is very American and English focused.
oh gosh, I read The Film Drunk and my brain went to The Critical Drinker for a second and I was sooooooo disappointed in Brian