Great excercise. I have been trading Saturday Australian horse racing most weeks since August last year and did a Profit & Loss on all the tracks a couple of months ago. The results were eye opening, Randwick & Rosehill I hardly ever lost and were very profitable (at my level). I found these markets more predictable, liquid and smooth to scalp trade. Some other tracks like Flemmington were similar but were slightly quirky. A number of tracks behaved very differently and were less liquid and quite volatile and "swingy". I usually avoid these or trade with microstakes for "educational" purposes. Struggling with UK racing at the moment (except the big meetings) but hoping to adapt the skills learned on the markets down under to the UK soon.
Can't believe I've been using the exchange for 4/5 years now and I didn't know there was literally a way to instantly put all this data into a spreadsheet automatically... Very useful, thank you Caan!
Nice video. Looking at pass results is a great opener to your performance and shouldn’t underestimated. Since I have been consistent in my approach last year, I have seen my results level out without the big losses that set you back.
Hi Caan, I'm a few weeks into my second (and LAST!) self-enforced 12 month break from trading on Betfair. I've taken the decision to follow this course, because I'm fed up with paying for your holidays and for those of Peter Webb - amongst others! LOL Seriously though, I've decided to take such a break in order to build up a reasonable bank (though Betfair will likely not let me employ it when I return next year!) and also to give me time to read up more - and study in general - regarding sports trading. I plan also to try to alter my mindset from how I presently trade/gamble, to how I must TRADE/TRADE in the future! As ever, may I wish you and yours well and close by saying 'thanks' for another great video. :-)
I didn't know that feature was there Caanso this is a really useful video. Though I don't do racing, I am a footy man myself and have literally just discovered, By accident, I guess a strategy, which gets a result from absolutely any game of football, not matter which league that team is in. the results so far are 99.9% which is good and I haven't found it taught anywhere on RUclips.It does rely on data, but no where near as much as some might teach. I will be applying this video to my one thanks for sharing
Interesting recommended vid 😊 You could seriously take that analysis to the next level by using Power Query. It’d create columns for: Course, Distance, Type etc - and automate the lot. Granted it’s probably a bit more advanced for your general audience but I absolutely agree; data - and being able to perform trend analysis over it - is a real edge.
Excellent video, all part of being disciplined and methodical. All I'd add is be wary of randomness, it's easy to find winning systems based on past results.
Betting tips for this weekend: tonight at 20:00 o' clock Lierse kempenzonen - Waasland Beveren: Waasland Beveren to score over 1,5 goals @1,90. Tomorrow: Groningen - Ajax: Groningen +2.0 handicap @2,12. Ajax with some absentees and players returning from international duties.
Nice. I DID have a tenner on Rolfe Rembrandt just now, saw that Luke Harvey had it done and cashed out getting it back as I don't want anything he's marked down...it got beat 😀 I knew it as soon as I saw he'd marked it
Hi Caan, I can see where you are trying to go with this, if you look hard enough you can always find trends especially those based on small sample sizes. Maybe the trend is not caused by chance it may be robust enough that, if I greatly expanded the sample size it might still apply in spades. Even if you think you have found a trend you still have to understand the underlying cause of that pattern. A word of warning though beware of very small sample sizes, say for instance like you mention Race Courses, Taunton for example. 14 meetings a year of which maybe on average 7 races a meeting, 98 races in total a year. If you then split that between hurdles, Chases,NH flat, then the sample size goes down even further, then maybe you say well do I do better in 2 mile races, 3mile races, 2m2f races on good ground soft ground, handicaps, novices races, mares races, etc etc taking the sample size down even further, in fact you can have years of results but the sample size can still be very limited when broken down like that. You can lock yourself into looking at trends that may be very random at best, or at worst can change in an instant. Whats gone in the past is no real indicator of what will happen in the future when you are looking for patterns. Just because I tossed a coin 10 times and heads came up every spin does it mean there is a pattern? It may just be Chaos Theory... Lets say you looked at 100,000 races and found for example by backing favourites in stakes races you was winning 5p for every pound staked but making a loss of 1p in the case of handicap favourites, then because of the large sample size, the difference would almost certainly be deemed 'significant' interestingly if you find even in a small sample the profit is MASSIVE then it still MAY prove to be significant. especially when you are stuck with small samples most of the time.
Hi Ian, I wasn't suggesting to find trends doing it - just understanding your own personal trading behaviour :) it's amazing how often the same thing happens, being irrational, getting frustrated etc. It's about finding those situations and avoiding them. You' need to get lots of sub-accounts to use if for trend spotting etc and even then a fair amount of variables as you say.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Hi Caan, I know you wasn't suggesting to find trends doing it, but your trading behaviour leaves a trail or trend in many ways as you described, else if that isn't the case you wouldn't be able to understand if it is happening or indeed the same thing happens like you say to be able to avoid them. What I was saying is you have to understand that maybe it is just chance, or even if you can understand the underlying cause of why the same thing happens or not. And like I said is the sample size big enough to say that is really the case...:)
No, use it more for understanding my own personal trading behaviour/ticks. Like I said previous about being more irrational toward the end of a session.
It isn't 'stupid', all it means is that you need to keep better records! I, for one, am terrible at record keeping - but I can see real value in the information contained in this video. I guess its the old balance between working hard - and/or working smart! Also, if trading were that easy, then EVERYONE would be doing it! ;-) Just my humble opinion. :-)
Fantastic video. Downloaded my last 3 months recently but didn’t know how to input the filters. Magic
sure it'll make things clearer!
Great excercise. I have been trading Saturday Australian horse racing most weeks since August last year and did a Profit & Loss on all the tracks a couple of months ago. The results were eye opening, Randwick & Rosehill I hardly ever lost and were very profitable (at my level). I found these markets more predictable, liquid and smooth to scalp trade. Some other tracks like Flemmington were similar but were slightly quirky. A number of tracks behaved very differently and were less liquid and quite volatile and "swingy". I usually avoid these or trade with microstakes for "educational" purposes.
Struggling with UK racing at the moment (except the big meetings) but hoping to adapt the skills learned on the markets down under to the UK soon.
Can't believe I've been using the exchange for 4/5 years now and I didn't know there was literally a way to instantly put all this data into a spreadsheet automatically... Very useful, thank you Caan!
Glad I could help, at least you know now!
Great video Caan, this is something that the vast majority of people overlook.
Absolutely. So often we think we know where we going wrong but the data tells a totally different story!
@@CaanBerryProTrader I could do with some advice if it's of any interest to you. Regarding a £20.000 withdrawal from 10Bet
@@bangersngash1096 good bloody luck.
Nice one, I have been putting toether an Excel database for a while now. Definitely helps no end!
Great to hear!
Nice video. Looking at pass results is a great opener to your performance and shouldn’t underestimated.
Since I have been consistent in my approach last year, I have seen my results level out without the big losses that set you back.
Great stuff, it's insane how much of a difference removing a few mistakes makes.
@@CaanBerryProTrader and then the confidence just flows
Thanks for the tips. Its really good to hear from an expert. Thanks man🥳🥳🥳
Hi Caan, I'm a few weeks into my second (and LAST!) self-enforced 12 month break from trading on Betfair. I've taken the decision to follow this course, because I'm fed up with paying for your holidays and for those of Peter Webb - amongst others! LOL
Seriously though, I've decided to take such a break in order to build up a reasonable bank (though Betfair will likely not let me employ it when I return next year!) and also to give me time to read up more - and study in general - regarding sports trading. I plan also to try to alter my mindset from how I presently trade/gamble, to how I must TRADE/TRADE in the future!
As ever, may I wish you and yours well and close by saying 'thanks' for another great video. :-)
no thank you for your comments and feedback!
I didn't know that feature was there Caanso this is a really useful video. Though I don't do racing, I am a footy man myself and have literally just discovered, By accident, I guess a strategy, which gets a result from absolutely any game of football, not matter which league that team is in. the results so far are 99.9% which is good and I haven't found it taught anywhere on RUclips.It does rely on data, but no where near as much as some might teach.
I will be applying this video to my one thanks for sharing
Interesting recommended vid 😊
You could seriously take that analysis to the next level by using Power Query. It’d create columns for: Course, Distance, Type etc - and automate the lot.
Granted it’s probably a bit more advanced for your general audience but I absolutely agree; data - and being able to perform trend analysis over it - is a real edge.
More niche for sure but good shout!
ive only started learning but i can see this is a great help thank you
You're very welcome, glad it's helpful.
Brilliant video. Thank you Caan.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Excellent video, all part of being disciplined and methodical. All I'd add is be wary of randomness, it's easy to find winning systems based on past results.
exactly. this is just like backfitting. road to the poorhouse I'm afraid.
for sure, would look at it more as analysing reactions than a specific strategy unless very fixed peramaters
Magic. Many thanks Caan. 😊
cheers! glad it's useful.
I think the most important piece of data is missing from this export. The class of the race, I won't touch anything below a class 3.
Betting tips for this weekend: tonight at 20:00 o' clock Lierse kempenzonen - Waasland Beveren: Waasland Beveren to score over 1,5 goals @1,90.
Tomorrow: Groningen - Ajax: Groningen +2.0 handicap @2,12. Ajax with some absentees and players returning from international duties.
1st class , valuable info again, ty
Glad it was helpful!
Nice. I DID have a tenner on Rolfe Rembrandt just now, saw that Luke Harvey had it done and cashed out getting it back as I don't want anything he's marked down...it got beat 😀 I knew it as soon as I saw he'd marked it
Hi Caan, I can see where you are trying to go with this, if you look hard enough you can always find trends especially those based on small sample sizes.
Maybe the trend is not caused by chance it may be robust enough that, if I greatly expanded the sample size it might still apply in spades.
Even if you think you have found a trend you still have to understand the underlying cause of that pattern.
A word of warning though beware of very small sample sizes, say for instance like you mention Race Courses, Taunton for example.
14 meetings a year of which maybe on average 7 races a meeting, 98 races in total a year.
If you then split that between hurdles, Chases,NH flat, then the sample size goes down even further, then maybe you say well do I do better in 2 mile races, 3mile races, 2m2f races on good ground soft ground, handicaps, novices races, mares races, etc etc taking the sample size down even further, in fact you can have years of results but the sample size can still be very limited when broken down like that.
You can lock yourself into looking at trends that may be very random at best, or at worst can change in an instant.
Whats gone in the past is no real indicator of what will happen in the future when you are looking for patterns.
Just because I tossed a coin 10 times and heads came up every spin does it mean there is a pattern?
It may just be Chaos Theory...
Lets say you looked at 100,000 races and found for example by backing favourites in stakes races you was winning 5p for every pound staked but making a loss of 1p in the case of handicap favourites, then because of the large sample size, the difference would almost certainly be deemed 'significant' interestingly if you find even in a small sample the profit is MASSIVE then it still MAY prove to be significant.
especially when you are stuck with small samples most of the time.
Hi Ian, I wasn't suggesting to find trends doing it - just understanding your own personal trading behaviour :) it's amazing how often the same thing happens, being irrational, getting frustrated etc. It's about finding those situations and avoiding them. You' need to get lots of sub-accounts to use if for trend spotting etc and even then a fair amount of variables as you say.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Hi Caan, I know you wasn't suggesting to find trends doing it, but your trading behaviour leaves a trail or trend in many ways as you described, else if that isn't the case you wouldn't be able to understand if it is happening or indeed the same thing happens like you say to be able to avoid them.
What I was saying is you have to understand that maybe it is just chance, or even if you can understand the underlying cause of why the same thing happens or not.
And like I said is the sample size big enough to say that is really the case...:)
That's interesting re more sporadic behaviour towards the end of the day. Rang true for me now I think of it 🤔
ye it's these things that have a big long-term affect. That one was massive for me.
Do you record which strategy you used for each market? So you can assess how that went.
No, use it more for understanding my own personal trading behaviour/ticks. Like I said previous about being more irrational toward the end of a session.
Can we use bet brokers instead of bookies for betting ? Is it good choice ?
Never heard of it.
Are these profits pre-off and what’s the strategy
sound is not good on this time sir.
Is there a problem with the sound on this video, or is it me?
Yes the editor has told me off about this a couple of times, a camera setting that is now fixed so hopefully it won't happen again!
Caan you still doing podcast video's interviews
certainly, who would you suggest?
Sound quality is low.
Yes the editor has told me off about this a couple of times, a camera setting that is now fixed so hopefully it won't happen again!
Surely as a punter/trader you must expect your audience to know how to apply a filter?
some clearly don't! hopefully most do though :)
Your video shot is so good!Are you interested in cooperating with advertisements?
no thanks
this is stupid, if you have several systems this doesnt help at all as each race doesn't tell you which system you applied to that market
It isn't 'stupid', all it means is that you need to keep better records! I, for one, am terrible at record keeping - but I can see real value in the information contained in this video. I guess its the old balance between working hard - and/or working smart! Also, if trading were that easy, then EVERYONE would be doing it! ;-) Just my humble opinion. :-)
@@georgebuller1914 what's your channel called?