DNA Painter What Are the Odds on- The Best DNA Genealogy Tool Ever!?!
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- Опубликовано: 26 июл 2024
- DNA Painter What are the odds tool is the coolest DNA analysis and research tool ever! Learn how to use the DNA Patiner WATO tool to help you process your DNA matches with speed!
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CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction
01:08 Introducing What Are the Odds Tool from dnapainter.com
03:00 Create a Tree of Known Matches
06:36 Add the Amount of Shared DNA
09:54 Explanation of the Hypotheses
10:47 Adding Half Relationships to WATO
13:00 Add multiple hypotheses
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Where are we getting the CM information? Am I using how much I share with each of the known shared matches between me and my target person? Or am I needing to get the information from my target person?
First you need to compare you and the target person and then you need to check all their other matches and use THOSE amounts of shared DNA. Especially for those other matches that are closely related to you and for whom you do have a paper trail.
You need info of how much they share with the target person. 23andMe and MyHeritage and GEDmatch provide this data. Ancestry and FTDNA do not.
@@FamilyHistoryFanatics you should pin this question and answer. Luckily I read through the comments before commenting but this would seem to me to be the most obscure part of this process. Given the numbers game, most people would have tested at AncestryDNA and since they don’t provide this information it could be an early roadblock.
@@PureFoley Agreed. There should be a big warning on the video that says: THIS METHOD DOES NOT WORK WITH ANCESTRY DNA!
If the target tester you are trying to fit in the tree gives you permission to view their matches on ancestry you will be able to see the shared cM
I just want to say thank you so much for your help, education and patience with all of us and especially me. I really appreciate you taking the time to help me out and taking the step further to send me those supportive words in your email. You truly are appreciated and I wish that I could do something or send something to you for helping me with my family DNA suprise. Thank you a million times.
Keep watching and share with your friends. (And if you see an ad for something you like on our videos, then click on it). You can always look for our books on Amazon and buy one for yourself or as a gift.
Thank you Andy this videos just what I needed.
Glad it helped!
This was hugely helpful, Andy. Thanks for giving such a clear explanation! Incredibly useful tool, but I have struggled with it. I recommend your videos to so many people!
Glad it was helpful! Thanks so much for recommending my videos. Be sure to check out my wife's research videos as well. We're trying to grow this as a solid business and folks sharing our videos is how that happens.
This is amazing! Helping someone try to figure out a parent. We've built a tree and figured out where 7 DNA matches belong - we just can't figure out where she belongs. I can't wait to use this!
How is it going?
I wish someone would focus on creating tools for adoptee's. It seems all the tools are for people who have their mother and father tested and they can look at each other.
Unless your biological relatives actually do a DNA test, there is nothing else that adoptees can do - other than getting their original birth certificates and working on the paper trail.
I was lucky. I have an adoptee in the USA who has a high DNA match with me, but I am not American. And I also have 8 members of my family, from 4 different lines who have all tested so I have a good chance of narrowing down the adoptees line using this WATO tool.
WATO is a great tool for adoptees. I have used it to help solve several unknown parentage cases.
@@SereniaSaissa Not true. Im trying to find out who my grandfather was. Ancestry used to have DNA circles and it gave me an ancestral couple that I was related to based off of my matches. Problem is they had 11 kids and finding which line to pursue was driving me crazy. I used all of the matches to that ancestral couple in this WATO tool and I have been able to narrow down which line to pursue further. I havent figured out who he was yet, but Im a lot closer!
Thanks for the useful tips on how to use the WATO tool. I have access to the DNA Matches of my brother and two first cousins. Our grandfather was adopted and we are trying to find our 1xGGPs. Of course, cM values of our shared matches vary a lot and in some cases they have additional matches that I don’t have and vice-versa. What is the best way to make use of this data in WATO.? So far I’ve only entered cMs for my own DNA matches in WATO trees. Could I combine their results in some way to arrive at a stronger hypothesis?
Have you tried creating WATO trees for each DNA match. For instance, build one with you as the source of the cM, the build one with your brother and then separate ones for your cousins. Then you can see where the hypotheses overlap and see if you can et more clues that way.
Double cousins? Oh, goodness!! I've found family members I'm related to two and three times!
Hopefully this help me. After finding 3 generations of adopted out or family house people, which took 3 years. My birth father makes the other easy. Have you got more vlog on this subject please. Stay safe.
Not yet, but Devon keeps telling me to do more with WATO.
No matter how many tutorials I watch or how many blogs or “instructions” I read, I have NEVER been able to completely understand how to use this to my advantage :(
Both of my paternal grandparents were adopted. I’m mostly focused on my paternal/paternal line. We know the birth name, birth date and birth location that was given to the orphanage. I’ve had myself, my father and my niece tested through ancestryDNA, we have paternal matches to people we’ve never heard of. None of them have any connections to the supposed birth name of my grandfather (who passed in 1959)… my dad apparently has a half brother he never knew (who passed in 2021) who also grew up in the same city and state as my grandfather. No matter how I enter info into WATO, nothing seems to help 🤦🏼♀️
Idk how to figure out how we are related to all these people we’ve never heard of, and who have no connections to my grandfather’s supposed surname 🤦🏼♀️
We can’t get adoption papers due to the laws in Oklahoma where my grandfather was born/adopted/raised. I live thousands of miles from there, it isn’t possible for me to travel there to do my own hands on investigation. It’s soooo frustrating
Working on adoption to determine birth parents. In building a WATO tree, do I use the amount of cMs that my target shares with.stches, or do I need to collect the cM data from the matches and use their numbers instead of my target persons cMs?
Andy if you have a family tree DNA which has been uploaded to GEDmatch and you use the gedmatch shred match is that ok?
Yes
I'm sorry this is still way over my head. I'll try again later.
I understand. Here's an updated version. ruclips.net/video/d6LxMH0zS54/видео.html
Maybe this is better. When you try to use it again, think of what you don't understand and ask me questions so I can help you walk through the process.
Hello Andy, I am having trouble understanding the difference between the hypotheses results and the collated match data. My shared cm with the target person was highest of any other (over 1760). when I put my shared match number in , the hypothesis went from 650 to 1 .
Do you have multiple hypotheses?
@@FamilyHistoryFanatics , yes, I have made 3 others which all scored zero.
How do I correct the cm’s for Family Tree DNA data?
I show you how in this video: ruclips.net/video/ECgq-sPbd1Q/видео.html
Do you plan on doing a update since they changed this tool?
At some point. For now, the principles are still the same.
This was great. I am trying to determine who the spouse is of a person in my husband's tree. Two other trees show this woman married to two different men. In each case their descendants share DNA with my husband. Is there a way to show a person with two spouses? Now that I've written that, I think I have answered my own question. If married to man A descendants' shared cM is in 186 and 123. If married to man B descendant shares 9cM. Can I conclude based on descendants' cM amount that man A is the husband?
You wouldn't show spouses on WATO, but the children of the woman from different spouses would be half siblings.
You said you base the testers tree on how much cM's are shared by other testers. But all the cM's I find are based on how they relate to me. I don't know how much cM's cousin A has in common with cousin B & C, etc... For example when using Ancestry I go to my cousin (she does not know who her grandfather is but her matches points to another tester that I believe who is her grandfather) I look at our shared matches and the cM does not change when I look at my matches and the same matches when they are shared with her.
I do not know how this hypothesis is done when you can't put a base person in with their cM and run it against everyone else. So far I have run a hypothesis in all kinds of places and it is all 0. I don't know what I am missing?????
I don't know if I am making sense at all.
The video neglects to say this, but the information you need is not available on the world's largest DNA tester, Ancestry DNA.
S F.. that is correct. You would get how your matches match each other by using GEDmatch (Free to transfer your DNA to their site, but there is a premium and a freemium plan) and MyHeritage (nominal cost to transfer. Subscription for advanced tools.)
I have just spent the last hour or so using the WATO tool trying to find out how an adoptee in the USA is related to my family which comes from England and NZ. Fortunately he has several DNA matches with various different members of my family, so matches are not a problem. I have got a possible line of descent from an ancestor, but since the Dates are all after 1920 - ie less than 100 years ago - it is going to be hard to find the details. The odds are not terribly high - so far the highest odds I have is 26. So I am not sure if this means I am doing something wrong, but I will go with what I have for now.
How many matches are you using and how many hypotheses do you have?
Just a general question what is the best tool to use if you don’t have access to DNA from family members either they are no longer alive or haven’t taken a DNA test just asking
Thanks
It depends. It depends on what you mean family members. My wife has used the DNA of her dad's first cousin and a 2nd cousin. Others have tested and discovered 2nd and 3rd cousins they didn't know or didn't know they tested. Any test can tell you that. Then, it depends on your question. If you're looking for DNA matches for a biological family for yourself or your parents, test in every database. If you're looking for more distant matches, then start with Ancestry because it's the biggest.
I think it's an interesting tool, but getting an accurate cM reading to input is a problem. For example, Family Tree has one match for me at 38cM, but when I look at the same person on GedMatch it's only 19cM. Other matches are much worse. These differences can make the WATO tool's estimates hugely variable!
You shouldn't be using many matches that low. Most of your matches should be above 40cM. While there will be some variability at this level, the results will be very comparable.
Another video says not to use matches with less than 50 cM or it may skew the results.. what are your thoughts on that?
It all depends.
Do you have DNA matches that are larger than 50 cM? If so, adding in some 50 cM or below will still work.
If you're only using below 50cM results, then I could lean toward some hypothesis not working out well.
However, the MORE DNA matches you know from various lines, the better the results regardless of below or above 50 cM. I would avoid below 7 cM matches at all costs with this tool.
is there another tool that allows you to input the parents separately so that you can add children with a spouses sibling? I hope that was not too confusing but I have tried so many different hypothesis but the interrelation is making it difficult
DNA Painter isn't necessarily a couple tool or a non-direct lineage tool. I'm not aware of a tool that works that way. If I think of one, I'll let you know.
I totally think this is an awesome tool however you are moving at a pace so fast that I am so confused now. So I going to go get myself an account and take my time.
Do take your time. How is it going so far?
How would I know how much to reduce results fro FTDnA?
Andy discussed that in this video. ruclips.net/video/ECgq-sPbd1Q/видео.html
Hello, I have watched this video a few times and am interested in playing around with this tool. I have a few questions on what you need to set up the tree. My great aunt has a match to a person named John (example) on Ancestry DNA. I manage her kit. I do not know how John fits into our tree although from shared matches with my aunt, I know the side of the family I should focus on. First question. I want to know how John fits into our tree. Is he the Target person? Second question: There are a ton of known cousins who took this test and match to both my aunt and John. I manage some of these tests but not all of them. I can determine how many CM the tests I manage share with John. I cannot tell how many CMs the tests I do not manage share with John. In your video you said we should build this tree with people who match the target person and put in the amount of shared DNA. Does this mean I can only use this tool on the Ancestry Kits I manage that match John. Unfortunately, John did not test at another company or put his data into Gedmatch. I hope this is clear. thanks
Yes, John would be the target person. You would need to contact the other relatives to find out how much they share with John if you don't manage the kit.
@@FamilyHistoryFanatics I have a question this person Cr Simmons go on Ancestry DNA and click on the who ever is manage John DNA and get his CM and Shared % numbers? My next question is I have a 2great aunt DNA and one of her child and grandchild DNA how can I play with this to find out DNA matches of grandparents thur 3 great grandparents, if that's possible.
How much difference does the person's age make? I don't have the age of this 23 and me match so I'm using a birth date of 1950 as a default.
The age of the person can sometimes help you determine whether certain relationships are possible.
How is this any different from the cousin estimates on ancestry or gedmatch?
Great question... The cousin estimate is only a one to one between you and your DNA match. WATO, takes how you match to a variety of persons and as you build a family tree and then makes predictions where an unknown DNA match (with known amount of shared DNA) and predicts where they might fit on the family tree.
@@FamilyHistoryFanatics so pretty much instead of ancestry saying "you may be a third cousin" this program will suggest " this person may be a third cousin and your common ancestor may be on your maternal grandmothers side"?
My 84 year old aunty has a 1941 cM’s match ….most likely in her 40’s……non responsive and no tree….I know it could be a half sibling or a niece…….how would I input names if there’s no tree for said match?
Great question. If they are using an alias, I would put their alias in the family tree. If they are using a name, I would put that name in the family tree.
Then see if you can figure out who this match matches and look for potential clues to their common ancestors. When people use aliases, research becomes challenging. But, there are often ways around the privacy they seek if we're willing to be patient and persistent.
@@FamilyHistoryFanatics used their real name, also her son and grandson tested, but they won’t tell us who her father is…..keeping it a secret….she matches a ton of matches on my dad/aunt side…..but no clue how to proceed…she’s the highest match to my aunty…matches me at 944 cM’s
What if my target person was born in 1848? It won't take a birthday before 1900
You have to have your target person's DNA. So your target person couldn't have been born in 1848
Ah, I see: that doesn't quite work for villagers with limited gene-pools. An average villager that marries in the neighbouring villages in reach of a day's travel on foot is their own cousin about a 110 times in the last 13 generations. People of the same region usually turn out to genetically be 3-8th cousins, unless they recently moved in. It is extremely hard to filter those that really are 3-8th cousins and those that only seem to be, because they are all offsprings of the same 2000 people that lived in the region 800 years ago.
You're discussing potential endogamy or pedigree collapse. These situations complicate genetic genealogy research to be sure.
Whilst this tool looks amazing isn't it only as good as the guesses you are making?
For example in your example you keep using half siblings as being the most likely, but if you've missed off adding all the hypothesise, especially some that are very likely isn't it going to make it look was though the half sibling hypothesis is the best when it could be something completely different that you haven't put in your hypothesis tree? Wouldn't it be better for you to somehow be able to import your tree, select the people and the cM shared and for the program to show you what the most likely possibilities are?
Leaving it up to the individual to add in the hypothesis candidates means that the actual person's place in your tree might be somewhere you'd not even thought of. But I do like this, but you must have to be very thorough. My suggestion would also mean less adding of people, which can lead to mistakes is you're not careful, especially on big, complex, distant relationships.
Also, whilst as someone into statistical analysis for other things, namely my job, wouldn't having the number of cM from you as well as Elizabeth make it statistically easier to pinpoint the exact location of the match. If you don't have access to the cM the potential candidate has then this is also not going to help that much, although we you said from Ancestry you at least know whether there is a match or not, which is useful information. If the other people have uploaded their DNA to GEDmatch then I guess this is the way around this as well (is this in the paid subscription to GEDmatch or the free part though, I've only just started looking into that).
I've created an update video ruclips.net/video/d6LxMH0zS54/видео.html
But any analysis is only as good as the information you put into the calculations. There's an old adage "Garbage in, Garbage Out."
Additionally, the more known matches you add to WATO, the greater the different between the likelihood of the hypothesis being correct. So, it's a tool that I have in my genealogy toolbox.
Does that help?
@@FamilyHistoryFanatics That's fine, and I do agree, I guess some tools are only as good as the data input into them, and thinking about it now (and working in data driven software development) if the tool works for the vast majority then the development time and cost (time of money) to develop it further isn't worth it. I think my comment wasn't really a criticism of the tool itself just an extra nice to have that would be useful to have included.
Thanks for the link to the update, I might have already watched it, but will have a look anyway in case I haven't. Keep up the good work!!!
I really only accept how people are related when I can identify a shared common ancestor and have their line of descent.
And, I do not see how this is more useful than the standard old method using a spreadsheet of segment data and developing family trees of the people who share segments.
Especially at the more common problem of identifying 4x great grandparents and my 18th century ancestor's wife's family.
Not every DNA match has a family tree. So, when you have unknowns and you're trying to see how they may fit, you use the What are the Odds Tool.
Isn’t this what DNA circles gave us?
Can the ThruLines be used with this?
No. DNA circles just meant that you shared DNA and you shared a person in your tree. This can be used whether you have a tree or not. Plus, it takes into account how much shared DNA you have to determine the likely relationships.
Not really
add subtitle in Dutch language :D
I need someone to subtitle it in dutch and I can add it. I don't speak dutch.
Google translate
It is bullshit in any language .
I have exactly 50 matches on my Ancestry Truelines, from 7cm to 46cm , I can identify probably that many more that didn't make it on the Truelines because they did not have trees or not enough info on the trees. Ancestry estimates my relationship to most of my matches from 3c1r to 4-6 cousins (5 to 8 gen), which is consistent with the cm estimator tool. I believe the ancestor to be my great grandfather W.H., born between 1858 and 1873 (I873 is from documentation, 1858 oral accounts of his age). My matches tend to go back to two brothers, born in 1801 and1819. I might be going about this wrong as I have entered about 16 matches to me, with an average of 24cm. I am fairly sure my g-gf is an only child and half-sibling to the other offspring of Ancestry's prediction of my 4th g-gf. I am going to stop here, as I just might be rambling at this point. Based on your example, should I be looking at the highest cm matches, or do I consider them all, keeping in mind the age and distance of my match? I am an early 1950 generation
When using WATO, you'll want to use as many matches from a common ancestor as you can. However, when you have children of a DNA match, their children don't help your case. It's best to have as many large cM matches as possible, sprinkled in with the lower matches as you've mentioned. I did an updated video to explain some of this ruclips.net/video/d6LxMH0zS54/видео.html
Now, if between the two of these videos you're still stuck, send me a screen shot to through our contact form and I'll see if I can answer this in a line show this summer. Put Question for Live Show in the subject to make this stand out. www.familyhistoryfanatics.com/contact
@@FamilyHistoryFanatics I believe I have only two that have children, I have several sibling cluster matches, those tend to be in the 30-46cm range. It is a slow process for me, the dynamics of entering data, even uploading a gedcom. Although adding from a gedcom gives me many more offspring where there is not a current offspring match, I decided to delete them as they are just clutter once they are on WATO, but useful in building the tree. I learned this morning that I can add descendants from Truelines. I need a smooth system, I use my PC and iPad. I decided to stop adding the main surname as the initials mean nothing to me once on WATO, I have to click on the name to remind me. Thank you, I will try to get a screenshot to you soon.
Sadly, I don’t have enough close matches to help me nail down a birth father. It just creates over a hundred imaginary ancestors. ☹️☹️☹️
Be sure you have your DNA in all of the databases. Your close matches might not have tested in the same place you have. After that, you might what I call the small family problem. I talked about that here ruclips.net/video/pJDjHg13QgI/видео.html
I do not like this. It says things like my kids are not mine. I was there. Both birth and conception and they are. No one matches anyone with anything more than a +1. The charts are better but still..................
You might not have WATO set up correctly.
A bit too late with this free use. Now we can’t look at others trees.. contact is often ignored.
The WATO tool doesn't allow contact with others. Sorry. But I do understand the frustration with people not responding to our emails ruclips.net/video/2XIJ6P4_GB8/видео.html