Is The American Dream Dead? w/ Raoul Pal
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- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2024
- Curious about Raoul's thesis? This is by far one of his best videos where he lays out more than 3 decades of work and puts the puzzle together. Everything from World War I to the birth of the American Dream and how the hell did we end up in these crazy times.
In an interview that was recorded for the "What is Money?" show and podcast with @RobertBreedlove22, Raoul Pal ties together the golden thread for why our economic world and political world are where they are today, and then look at how this ties into the Exponential Age.
He then shifts to the new world and the Fourth Turning, “when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history”, and explains that the American Dream as we know it is dead, and a new world is emerging made up of robots, AI, and where there is no cost in producing energy.
Yet in this new world, Raoul imagines a world of hope and optimism, where new identities and communities are formed: the metaverse. “The Metaverse is discovering the Americas again or even a new Solar System.
TIMESTAMPS: (Shoutout to Leonard Leong for providing them!)
2:30 - History of human actions and unintended consequences
4:19 - The start
7:03 - Debasement
9:08 - Industrialization
10:00 - Fiat
15:31 - Pax Americana
21:30 - Productivity growth
25:35 - Wealth disparity
33:14 - Policy intervention
43:00 - Gold reserve
47:48 - International Monetary Fund (IMF)
59:30 - Labor participation rate
1:14:59 - Central bank policy
1:19:20 - Economic reality
1:23:45 - Government bonds
1:26:16 - Currency annihilation
1:30:00 - Counterparty risk
1:34:24 - Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC)
1:36:00 - Market actors
1:42:00 - Austrian view
1:43:55 - Population reduction
1:48:35 - Metaverse
1:51:00 - Inflationary pressure
1:52:41 - Cantillon effect
1:54:29 - Nation-state
2:07:44 - Value capture
2:09:00 - Singularity
2:10:38 - Identity
2:14:20 - Possibility
2:16:14 - Demographics
2:18:20 - Money
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TIMESTAMPS: (Shoutout to Leonard Leong for providing them!)
2:30 - History of human actions and unintended consequences
4:19 - The start
7:03 - Debasement
9:08 - Industrialization
10:00 - Fiat
15:31 - Pax Americana
21:30 - Productivity growth
25:35 - Wealth disparity
33:14 - Policy intervention
43:00 - Gold reserve
47:48 - International Monetary Fund (IMF)
59:30 - Labor participation rate
1:14:59 - Central bank policy
1:19:20 - Economic reality
1:23:45 - Government bonds
1:26:16 - Currency annihilation
1:30:00 - Counterparty risk
1:34:24 - Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC)
1:36:00 - Market actors
1:42:00 - Austrian view
1:43:55 - Population reduction
1:48:35 - Metaverse
1:51:00 - Inflationary pressure
1:52:41 - Cantillon effect
1:54:29 - Nation-state
2:07:44 - Value capture
2:09:00 - Singularity
2:10:38 - Identity
2:14:20 - Possibility
2:16:14 - Demographics
2:18:20 - Money
Medical upcoding reduced the American Lifespan possibly the UK's too?
Bruh health insurance is high because doctors were medical upcoding status quo with orders from the very top to do so.
Too many kids? What about population replacement statistics being low? Nah bro
P
@Real Vision Finance the tricks that all of you shared with everyone through the years are legendary! Thank you very much for the shoutout - it's one of the best treats I've received! 🙂
Never seen anyone explained the whole timeline in such a clear manner. Thanks raol, once again a brilliant video
Thanks for watching!
He’s done it once before on real vision, this is his second attempt that I’m aware of. He’s improving his delivery, the confidence in his thesis is getting stronger. I’ll give him one thing: he’s original. I’m not aware of anyone else who has a thesis of this length in this way.
@@RealVisionFinance I need to speak with you ASAP. I have something extremely important to add that you need to know.
I have learned the most from you and your channel. You are the only person that I have seen that has explained demographics as thoroughly.
This has nothing to do with business, crypto, finance, money.
This information has to do with health.
Thanks for putting a date on this video - so important for interviews regarding macro economics.
Any time!
I paused this and went to watch the Goldsmith interview that Raol referred to. I’m now back watching the rest of this interview. A lot of thoughts ticking away in my head about things at the moment. I was just a school kid when that interview was made so I didn’t watch and it was not on my radar. The schools I attended and the neighbourhood I grew up on the council estates of North London were hardly populated with deep thinkers and forward thinking types. I wish I had paid more attention back then but given the mindset and focus of my peers at the time it was just never going to happen. It’s taken a lot of self discipline and conflict to get to the mindset I now have.
I do reflect back on mistakes made and time wasted. I spend a lot of time now learning, reading, investing and trying to raise my children differently. I also try to encouragement young people not to waste time and to focus on things that really matter. Life is a funny ol thing.
If anyone wants to watch the accurate and thought inspiring 1994 Charlie Rose interview mentioned please find it here:
ruclips.net/video/wwmOkaKh3-s/видео.html
This is very interesting. Cutting this into about 5 parts, where you added some explanations for some of the terms, fin lingo, etc could make it a fantastic series for a broad audience. Loved it.
Agree to adding definitions and concept teachings
Raoul is saying this is financially driven. That’s because he’s energy blind. Debt and money is a claim on primary and secondary wealth (commodities and finished goods). All wealth is either energy or a derivative of energy.
Not only do his charts correlate to the work force participation rate, they also correlate to net energy. How much energy we get for each unit of energy used to go extract the energy.
This disconnect is probably the most important flaw in his macro thesis. Net energy is also, perhaps the most important dynamic to understand in terms of why a period of rapid simplification is coming. Joseph Tainter taught us all how when your society faces predicaments you can either add complexity to manage the predicament or you can simplify. The cost of adding complexity is energy. Debt has pulled forward the use of cheap easily accessible energy.
I agree that we’re in for 15-20 years of trouble, as Raoul said. The essence of that trouble is that we’ll need to completely reset our social narratives and expectations. We’re going to learn, as a global population, to achieve the same emotional states as our successful ancestors, without consumption growth.
That said, I think Raoul is dead on correct, in terms of explaining the utility of blockchain. Our system has become opaque and dishonest. Digital ledgers will reintroduce honesty and information into our incentive structures.
Awesome interview, thank you for sharing.
exactly, EROEI is the key. And believing we will live in VR and make magic money there that someone will exchange for fixing toilet clogged with shit or freeze ass in Syberia to dig oil to exchange it for magic sword in mmo... Jesus. And unfortunatelly, transparency of blockchains is double edged sword - as soon as someone discovers you've got the money, you're in trouble. Hoomans are predators. Another fallacy... "robots will replace humans". Yeah, those guys clearly never visited factory, and have no idea how complex this shit is. Only mass assebly plants (usually final stages of production chain) are robot-friendly. Majority of even advanced rocket stuff is done manually by people who learned their craft for decades. Robots are not free labour! It takes lots of materials and knowledge to operate robot facility.
We need Raoul interviewing Raoul for Xmas 🎄
Love the idea!
This would be interesting.
@@RealVisionFinance Pleeease, do it!! :D
In ancient times people did put out books talking with themselves around own thoughts - MEDItAtIONES
😂😂😂😂
The American dream is not something that just falls out of the sky. The American dream is something that you do, with your effort, and your abilities, and you create. Along with a lot of luck. What is your dream? Doing what you love? Living where are you love? Sharing it with somebody you love? What is your dream, that’s the question?
yep, but only in hollywood
The American dream is an opportunity that developed in the US because we had a jump start on technical advancement that allowed those dreams to be more achievable for a short period of time. The American dream is only something that can be realistically achieved if the US remains nationalistic and ahead of everyone else. The onset of globalization buried the American dream, because all the technological advantages and nationalism are gone. American corporations will sooner ship labor overseas to save a buck than cater to spoiled Americans that expect a higher wage. In other words, any attempts to keep the labor here via trade wars and tariffs is the only way we have to defend against the coming economic booms in third and second world nations. Bottom line, a globalized economy wants to reach a wage equilibrium, and nations that got wealthy early will stagnate *hard.*
@@limitisillusion7 genius, USA is a PRODUCT of globalization
If it includes luck than it's lost. What's the point if you aren't guaranteed a reward for working hard. Luck shouldn't be part of equation and thus the problem.
this is one of those interviews that you have to listen to once a year
I was thinking I’d listen to this over and over for a year
@@davidbartos214 : What type of drugs are you taking ?
Absolutely phenomenal! This interview took place 1 year ago. I'm very curious on how you see this playing out a year later. Will you be posting any video/interview updates?
So thankful you putting this clear overview on history, economic development and all the correlations. Always sharing your videos with my now grown up kids as they don’t learn any of it in school. I feel sorry for the new generation to be faced with a world like this! Hardly know what advice to give them!
A defining masterpiece, perfectly outlining how we have arrived at our current situation - and all in time for the 14th anniversary of Satoshi’s white paper. I will send links to this video to anyone and everyone I know who cares about the situation we’re in. Thank you. Thank you!!
Maybe except the part where he said we'd never see inflation again...
Come on Real Vision, is viewership dropping that much?
Never really enjoyed history as a kid but looking through an economic and demographic lens it becomes more interesting and makes more sense.
Right? Such much better. The education system has failed so many of us…
I agree - I was always annoyed that history was always the leader and the battles and borders but the reason someone came to power was reduced to “people were unhappy”. All of the other facts are relevant but its history without the ‘why’. This stuff is the why to the history.
I hope you don't think Raoul made sense. There was so much misinformation here. Council houses were not free. The inflation of the 1970s was not due to a population bulge. The Berlin Wall fell in 1989 not 1990. All the communist regimes in Eastern Europe had fallen by the end of 1989 except for the Soviet Union which fell in 1991.
@@patricksquires77 Truth! 🙌
@@Withnail1969 Then start a channel and state your case!! Reaction vids are all the rage!😎
Absolutely fantastic mind-blowing conversation! And a great deal to think about and to digest!
Thanks for watching!
The first half of this video was an incredibly insightful history lesson with some really valuable points. The second half really went off the rails.
Let’s see an update to the forward-looking portion, based on last year’s events (since this was filmed). Using that Raoul interviews Raoul format for it 👍🏻 “Electricity going to zero” is a tough one…
Love the idea!
No words for how... just mind bending this was. Thank you all for doing this.
Glad you enjoyed it! More to come...
A truly timeless discussion! TY both. Peace and blessings for all on the journey to a new world! 🕉
I have to see this twice, this is gold
100%. Drinks or coffee may be needed to digest the whole framework!
Thank you thank you thank you!
I have been screaming this no wage growth for 30 years concept for what seems like my entire work life, and nobody has seemed to have gotten it.
You are the first prominent person I’ve ever heard confirming my gut feeling. I’m 58 years old and was born in 64 the last of the baby boomers. While I still feel fortunate to have done “ok” I personally have not had a wage increase since ‘06. I work in Network Television.
I also believe the crux of all the populace uprising and support of “radical” political ideologies has it fundamental roots in this same 0 wage growth fact.
Keep telling the truth. Thank you!
Thanks for watching!
There is no wage growth because the economy has in reality not grown at all since before 2005.
@@Withnail1969 Yes. I would agree.
This is gold, I'm keeping this to remind myself and my children to come for real economic history lessons.
“Recorded November 23, 2021.”
This starry eyed interview was the consummate top signal 👌
The cost of electricity will go to zero. Okay, explains some of the absolute bitcoin mania. Not sure I see that playing out anytime soon.
He's been out of the REAL world too long. I wonder how much money Raoul has lost in bitcoin this year (I know he got in for under $20k but listening to his arrogant BS, I bet he bought a lot more at higher prices). I suspect Raoul will need to go back to work one day soon.
What a way of starting an interview. It looks like if Raoul called Robert and told him "Hi, man, bring me to your show to interview me! Dont bother about preparing anything. I will rant about whatever and u will ask whatever comes to your mind, I will not know the answers to your questions and you will not undesrstand my replies. Just fake u do!!".
A Fish Called Wanda :)
Raoul doesn't even get his history correct. I suspect Raoul is already really embarrassed by this interview.
This is going to be a historical piece
Absolutely! Thanks for watching Paul
What a great listen! Raoul really does think out the box!
Thanks for watching!
1:57:00 and this is the problem with bitcoin and why it cannot be money.
man.. what a conversation... thank you so much!
open-minded
Thanks for watching it Dudu!!!
I lived in America for most of life since I was six, and I am an American. I moved out to Korea 10 years ago. I used to get home sick a lot until it became a divided nation. It's sickening to see the racists crawl out of the holes like cockaroches. Mass shootings are a joke. I never thought America was that dangerous until I started traveling to other countries. Healthcare and university costs not to mention the high taxes... I love merica but I'm not sure I would ever live there again. I never thought I would say this but there's just so much better places in the world.
Thanks for watching!
(2:04:29) Raoul is lying by omitting that all the robots will belong to one person only if central banks keep printing money, which is what he wants because he advocates for bitcoin.
If central banks let assets and prices fall, then capitalists will give equity to employees instead of giving it to serf-users.
Raol, you do an outstanding job putting the pieces together and presenting it in such a coherent fashion...
In 1987 James Goldsmith tried a hostile takeover of Goodyear . I was working as a mechanic , one morning 6 men were fired , and goldsmith made millions.
This fckn blew me away. Most of it I knew but Raoul talks through it coherently and it all makes sense where the world is going.
I’m so blessed to find this man at the time I did. Thank you Raul, you are a great guru
Thanks for watching!
Shouldn’t have listened to this right before bed. I won’t be able to stop thinking about it
this conversation man ... i felt like i was in the room....
Those are the best!!!
Nothing will be fair in a Metaverse. Ridiculous.
Even for a french guy , it's definitly become more clear , chers from France
Thanks for watching!
Fantastic piece, as always. . One correction. UK Council Houses were rented to low income families by the Local/city council. The rents were however much lower than in private rented sector. And the councils had to maintain the properties.
Theres lots of corrections needed for this dream session
This was one of the best two hours I’ve ever spent.
We’re glad to hear that!
Thanks both again
Any time!
Listened to this before, such a great breakdown. One thought is Raoul is stating they can’t hit the nuke button with this much debt in the system. But that is what they are doing now. Record high increase in interest rate for the time period on % increase basis. Would love to hear his follow up thoughts and will have to wait and see how this ends.
As a general matter, the finance community's assessment of the FED is flawed by virtue of refusing to acknowledge a fundamental fact: The current system was established (really by Hank Paulson) for the *purpose* of propping up assets. Certainly, every whiny crying "I deserve to be rich" finance guy recognizes the operational reality -- hence they endlessly belly ache about how the implementation (via the FED) of this plan isn't "right" (and give lots of moralistic, long terms health of the economy reasons), but because the actuality is completely non-viable as public policy if articulated honestly, are always forced to fiddle around the edges, making great sounding, but utterly false, arguments about how things "should be", and endlessly whining that these shoulds aren't reality, but, crucially, never actually interested in actually making these changes because the real goal is more money for ME. Thus no finance guy is EVER going to propose any real solution, instead, the purpose of all this belly aching is to drive things even further in the direction of more for me. The day finance people *actually* start giving a shit about anyone other than themselves (and no talking big on youtube does not count), that's the day we'll see some real change. We all know this -- everyone knows this -- it's plain as the interest on your leverage. What finance, as a general rule, refuses to understand is that models of reality that refuse fundamental truths cannot possibly be correct. Perforce they are wrong, by design they are wrong, because they refuse *facts*. No? Go ask Richard Werner. The general level of discourse around the FED, by all these so called experts, is far more reminiscent of the Tea Party than it is of science, FAR MORE. The Truth? If you ever get what you claim to want, the destruction of society will be only steps behind.
great knowledge thank you
Thanks for watching Anthony!
I'm at a loss for words but very encouraged at the same time.
I cannot express my appreciation for your candid insight. My personal thoughts melded with yours and I've experienced an awakening like never before. I feel as if I've stolen something from you. Again..thank you so much for sharing your thoughts. I've just been educated beyond anything I could have asked for. It's an undeniable truth.
Raul, you are a library of accumulated knowledge.
Thanks for watching!
Question , So , if by printing more dollars the dollar is debased , why is it that in countries outside of the USA the dollar price appears to rise. Im from South Africa Dollar now costs R18.38. This something id like to understand ? Brendon .
Excellent conversation Raoul, just as the other one where you laid it all out for the first time! Just wish Rob was on top of his game here.
Thanks for watching!
Really enjoyed listening to this conversation when it first aired on RB's channel. Might just listen to it again here on RVF as well :)
Fantastic Pedro! It’s an evergreen analysis of our history…
Thank you. I think it's the first video about crypto/financial markets that I'm sharing with family and friends. Amazing how articulate Raoul is and how he can explain such complex matters so that everybody understands (most of it).
Glad you enjoyed it!
So wonderfully weird. No part of this was new, but in aggregate and combination it opened up an entirely new perspective. As Robert said towards the end. A lot of food for thought to work through intellectually.
Thank you so much for this
Not even an MBA will offer you this in-depth understanding of our economies and finances. What is terrifying is that a made-up coin is our fallback to the failing global financial system.
Thanks for watching!
So much information here
Have to watch this multiple times
1000%. Thanks for watching!
Absolutely worth the sitdown for! Grab your coffee,whiskey,whatever and chillax.
Cheers!
Well I'm about a half-hour in, fantastic high-level overview so far with good observations.
BEST BEST Interview!!! Thank you Raoul, Amazing explanation of world financial timeline
Thanks for watching!
Not the biggest fan of Raoul since he's 'not in it for the philosophy, just to make money', however, this was brilliant. Incredibly insightful and interesting. Thanks.
Thanks Luke. Appreciate the candor!
Saying energy is going to zero is like saying a spaceship is going to travel at the speed of light.
hey Raoul, love the content. quick question: if your projecting demand based on demographic changes would a ratio relating the birth death ratio 30 years ago, and the birth death ratio 55 years ago be more representative of the dynamics currently at play? Would this ratio represent the changing size of the group at peak spending? or is this a misconception.
to extend this question could you use a ratio of birth/deaths 15 years ago, and birth/deaths 30 years go to project the next 15 years of demographics based demand changes?
Thanks for watching!
I really appreciate your willing and free giving of your demographic research & sharing it with the world.. you’re a true gentleman for providing a fantastic educational breakdown of how we got to where we are 🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽 many thanks.. my daughter, future children, & grandchildren thank you for your contribution to humanity 🤙🏽
Wow, thank you!
I’m struggling with the idea of digital food. And housing. Are we all plugged into the Matrix and eating the fake steak? Or, are you suggesting that robots and AI will feed us for free?
The first half of the presentation was excellent, but the second half was like an LSD trip.
@@bob.bishop The entire interview was BS. Raoul doesn't even get his history correct. What an embarrassment.
So grateful that this quality of educational content is accessible to us. Sensational historical recap melded with government choices that have led us to our seemingly only remaining solution to prevent self-destruction. Hopefully our global A.I. Hero that wins the race is a humanitarian and not a narcissist🤞
Thanks for watching!!
This is so amazing you have to watch it twice
Absolutely!
Watched this live in Nov ‘21. It’s excellent. Update please. And loop in Hugh Hendry, please! Please.
Great idea Robby!
Please, HH doesn't get BTC Yet.
Raoul, you can tell a story my man! I enjoyed every second of this. You guys ROCK!
Master storyteller for sure! Thanks for watching!
I think maybe the answer to the question raised in 2:08 minutes is that humans will be investing in robots the same way they now invest in real estate or other productive assets. You'll grow your wealth if you can buy more robots to outsource work. Potentially. Amazing conversation - thank you.
Wow. Can you please navigate me to content that can even follow this up… other than the books mentioned and the stability ai interview. You guys are changing my world views in a profound way
Thanks for watching Andrew!
All I can say is Wow! Great show guys! I am blown away. Now I have a headache.
Deep stuff Matt! Thanks for watching
Brilliant piece of interview..
Thanks for watching!
November 2021. The bitcoin dream is dead now we all got creamed
Raoul needs to read some physics books, particularly the chapters on entropy within systems. Throw in a little bit of complexity and emergence and then try again. Personally I see a rise of the Russian Empire,due to Occam’s Razor. I suspect there was more wine than coffee or the combination is a potent psychedelic. If you can explain the energy flows within the system, I’ll maybe be able to follow you.
thank you
You're welcome
I don't buy Raoul's crypto thesis in as far as its utility is concerned, but I can listen to him serenely elucidate it as well as he does the demographic problem all day long.
Agreed. Idk if I’m being educated or entertained for my attention.
The wild fluctuations in Bitcoin make it useless as a medium of exchange.
I don't see a difference between gold standard and fiat. During times of economic depression, only necessities hold value. Gold and paper don't feed people when the food supply is low. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't matter if your currency is backed or not. All that matters is that an economy provides necessities to its people and all other inflation will be transitory.
Totally agree....I used to be a gold bug for twenty years...I realize for the most part is useless...
@@FLAC2023 It seems like gold works in good times and doesn't work in bad times, just like fiat. Basically, economic depressions turn a gold standard into fiat. It's easier to just assume that the currency will hold value because people unanimously agree it does.... And it's easier to get them to agree if wages keep up with inflation.
Outstanding. Hopefully the good ones win.
Thank you so much guys! Brilliant minds, I'm just thankful
We appreciate you!
Germany had to pay war reparations, not repatriation.
Thanks for watching!
He who controls oil, wheels power. This northern hemisphere winter will prove this, period the end. (Play this @ 1.75 speed) as this is a 12month old recording, I wonder what Raouls bitcoin account looks like today?
Upside down is what it looks like.
@@randyrandall2148 Randy you have got that right👍
Love both these guys - great interview!
From Wikipedia: “The Treaty of Versailles (signed in 1919) and the 1921 London Schedule of Payments required Germany to pay 132 billion gold marks (US$33 billion [all values are contemporary, unless otherwise stated]) in reparations to cover civilian damage caused during the war.” So, apparently, the debt was in Marks, as Roal said.
Thanks for watching!
This is great, love the application of economic history here. Cause and effect directly applies to the financial system.
Glad you liked it!!
Great talk!! Watching Peter Zeihan for the geo-politics currently and in near future playing out and Adam Curtis for the rise of the individual and neo-liberalism in the 80s, 90s, 2000s would be highly recommended viewing after this.
Thanks for watching!
Awesome..need a yearly follow up to this thought and interview
Gold Nugget “A asset is a way of storing wealth for future consumption”❤
That’s a great one!!
Is there a transcript of this? It’s great and I want to study it.
Bob Motley
Thank you for the charing this economic truth!!!! Wich need to be basic economique education!! I
SPOT ON! Great! Raoul proves once again why Real Vision is so popular. Thx Sir!
Great video but I have a lot of questions and a lot I disagree with.
Premise 1: no large-scale society has ever existed whose citizens all want to work for free.
Premise 2: law is still binding.
Premise 3: property in all its forms is the only real wealth.
Premise 4: those currently with more wealth influence the law and thus property rights in their favor.
Premise 5: the more populist the democracy, the more backchannel corruption increases to maintain its own advantage.
Premise 4: humans are still selfish and corruptible.
Conclusion: the utopian version of the 4th turning is therefore unlikely, untenable, and should be disparaged. There is no bridge from “here” to “there” unless it is built by force on the backs of much death and the destruction of liberty.
Thanks for sharing!
wonderful video and discussion, thanks
Thank you too!
The one concept here that made no sense to me is how electricity could ever go to zero given all the physical infrastructure required to create, store, and deliver it.
The assumption definitely needs further explanation.
So good got to listen twice
Same here!!
So enjoy these conversations! My brain hurts but it's such good stuff.
Thanks for watching! For sure it needs a rewatch
This is old... you guys should make an update please about how you see the future from now.
Stay tuned Michal...
Lol: it's 2h old,
we need an update!
@@jeebusk it was first aired in November 2021. It is quite dated now we have the central banks trying to crush their balance sheets.
@@RealVisionFinance Yeah - I've hit the mid-segment of the interview where Raoul is saying Bond Yields are capped etc etc. Clearly the market has moved past this part of his thesis. Definitely need a better explanation. Will any new release be coming on RV membership first or are you gonna throw us a freebie this time around?
The 4th Turning is relevant so long as you realize the authors’s stated “ANGLO American” perspective.
I wish you would note when there are recorded.
Thank You from Berlin
Great 👍
The so called American Dream isn't that at all, it's not what they say it is. In my opinion we've been lied to concerning the American Dream.
Raoul has a very POV William. Thanks for watching!
This is one of the best videos I've ever seen on economics.
We appreciate it!! That’s amazing to hear