Down 61%, Is Enphase Energy Finally a Buy?
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- Опубликовано: 23 июл 2024
- Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) was one of the biggest winners of the pandemic in energy and that gave investors hope the company was going to have a big comeback when the market recovers. But when you look at the company's trends and the state of the industry, conditions may not be as bright, which Travis Hoium covers in this video.
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00:00 Introduction and Current State of Enphase Energy
00:46 Financial Overview and Recent Performance
02:02 Understanding Inventory and Revenue Fluctuations
04:17 Valuation Challenges and Market Position
06:55 Future Outlook and Conclusion
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I’ve been in Enphase since 2019. I don’t see any Chinese competitors or others for that matter on the horizon. The fact is their strength is their coders and it’s a wide moat. I’m talking about inverters.
In batteries yes but they are competitive there just not outstanding.
I could be wrong but I would say it would be extremely difficult to out innovate Enphase inverters. While someone was attempting to do that Enphase would continue innovating.
bought at 75 - event is high interest rates and backlog in channel - patience, patience, patience and returns will be good
agreed. Too much unknown about enph. I will have to wait for next earning call.
Great one bro!
I live in Europe where people install solar panels, they say ENPH’s module is just stupid, having a working unit for each solar panel makes only the maintenance n times harder
Could you please also cover SolarEdge, has dropped a lot compared to Enphase..
They have over a years worth of inventory. Situation is not good.
they only have 1 to 2 quarters of cash left, after that they will dillute and likely go bankrupt, I wouldn't touch it
Some good, some bad on the Macro front today that impact Enphase. Core CPI (specifically super core CPI) came in very soft this morning for the month of May. However, the EIA report from week of 6/7 showed a big increase in crude inventories. That's real bad going into Mid June. Energy demand should be way up right now. Nat Gas has been doing pretty well, but trend could buck soon along with traditional energy. So yes, inflation is softening, but you still have to consider the alternative - recession still not totally out of the cards yet, and energy is showing red flags. Investors are too quick to assume rate cuts mean stocks go up. It can be a sign of damage in the economy too!
And NO one knows for sure until it happens. So the people who are always afraid to invest because something "bad might happen" or the usual crop of perma-doomers is at it again -- will never take a stand.
So trade offs. And obviously, risk management is needed, as always. But given how poorly people market time, despite all the usual bluster (which has occurred for the 50 years I've paid any attention), aside from being wary of volatility, that's mostly a bunch of NOISE to me, overall .
How many months / years have the political set and permadoomers been INSISTING the US will have a "massive" recession "real soon now"? (And yes, I paraphrase).
What do you think of SEDG?
no it;s not it was bellow 100 i', triming enph now, sedg is buy now but market does not think like this it's ok
Would have been a good buy at $100. P/e sucks. Earnings keep going down. It might really take off next year.
I respect your overall thesis, but you seem to make various assumptions without backing them up AT ALL, and you also seem to ignore important items, re likely future prices.
So for example, you assume interest rates will remain relatively high. But interest rates (and inflation) are among the most DIFFICULT things to predict over time.
I think the long term disinflationary (low inflation) trend that existed due to technology and productivity improvements since, say, the great recession, is likely to return. That would mean that OVER TIME, low inflation (and thus interest) rates will return. (I could be wrong, but at least I give a logical REASON for my opinion). In the US and much of the first world generally, since inflation peaked, the OVERALL direction of it has been consistent with this view, BTW.
For another example, you seem to just IGNORE the whole high tariff structure Biden put into place in the US for solar equipment, in defense of US jobs in the space. I think that bodes well over time for preventing super cheap / fire sale Chinese solar from just easily becoming pervasive. So while I think Enphase's margins might well moderate over time compared to the former 20%+ rates, I don't think just assuming they'll stay way down from where they plunged when volumes dropped out is AT ALL a given.
I don't want to chase ENPH here or buy it aggressively at these prices either. However, I really like, and try to use the HIGH volatility of the stock, even compared to other solar stocks (like FSLR, for example). One can get pretty massive option premiums for just a month or two of time, and so if patient, work on getting a relatively cheap average cost on ENPH while one patiently builds a position.
For example, since I want to own it for years, if someone wants to PAY me 5 or more percent a month (depending on where earnings dates fall, for example), to buy the stock 5 or 10 percent lower than market, then once the stop dips meaningfully (like in here), I'm happy to scale into selling such put options, patiently.
To me, that's a MUCH different risk profile than someone who notices ENPH is down recently and rushes out and takes a full or near full position in the stock at time X "in case it rises a lot real soon now". As always, risk management re position size, diversification, etc. is KEY over time. And as always, again, I could be wrong -- which is WHY I stay WELL diversified and patient re my portfolio, including my active trading portfolio.