Will The Stock Market Crash in 2024?
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- Опубликовано: 8 июн 2024
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The exact timing and degree of stock market crashes is impossible to predict, but these 6 charts are actually incredibly good at warning us of how close we are to one. They’re the signals that Ray Dalio uses to navigate the market, the man who built the biggest hedge fund in the world.
And in a new linkedin memo, he just shared what these indicators look like today, not just for the broader US stock market, but also specifically the magnificent 7 stocks.
TIMESTAMPS
THE GREAT DEPRESSION 0:00
SENTIMENT 1:29
NEW BUYERS 5:39
DISCOUNTING 7:36
LEVERAGE 9:37
FORWARD PURCHASES 10:41
PRICING 12:33
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Disclaimer:
The information in this video is general information only and should not be taken as constituting professional advice from Hamish Hodder.
Hamish Hodder is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances.
Hamish Hodder is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by use of this video.
In spite of how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, there is already an excessive amount of demand waiting to absorb it, which is another reason it's less likely to happen that way. This forecast was not made in 2008, at least not by the general public, as I will explain below. The ownership rate peaked in 2004, according to the other comment. We reached a peak in the second quarter of 2020 and are currently at the median level. From 2008 to 2012, it fell by 3%, and in the second quarter of 2020, it dropped from 68 to 65. how can a young man with 200K survive?
Look for equities that yield more than the market and that, at the very least, move in line with the long-term trends in the market. But if you want to make a successful long-term plan, you need consult a financial expert.
Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look. I have been using an FA since 2019, and I return at least $121k ROI, and this does not include capital gain.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
My CFA ’’ Vivian Carol Gioia, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..!
I find this informative, curiously explored Vivian on the web, spotted her consulting page, and was able to schedule a call session with her, she shows quite a great deal of expertise from her resume.. very much appreciated
Is it really worth investing in stocks in 2024, I’ve been on the sidelines watching the market for awhile and it seems to be pretty stagnant to me not that it matters because I’m in it for the long run, but how can one generate actual profit in this current market?
If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert. Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
@@mariaguerrero08Glad to have stumbled on this comment, Please who is the consultant that assist you and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
*Gertrude Margaret Quinto* a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
Biggest lesson i learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
A weak dollar can signal an economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings around $200k.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Her name is “Vivian Carol Gioia” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send a mail to her and let you know how it goes.Thanks for sharing truly!
Crashes and bubbles are persistent features of financial markets and are exacerbated by narratives. The narrative is always different but something’s don’t tend to change, most notably, returns after crashes are more often positive than negative and new paradigm bubbles tend to have disappointing returns.
Right on! It’s always good to have cash on the side, so we’re forever ready to trickle in when a crash happens. I started five years ago with ~250k properly diversified across good blue chip companies, high yielding dividend stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and I just surpassed $3 million
my greatest concern is how to recover from all these economic and global troubles and stay afloat especially with the political power tussle going on in the US
We are in for a rough ride, but we must not emotionally respond and stay the course!
I think a great way to handle all of the bumps (and I agree with you, there will be plenty of bumps) is to dollar cost average into a well built portfolio. I use a CFP and find that helpful! Panic selling & trying to time the market lose people decades of wealth accumulation.
I take the stance that we stick with our target allocations in all markets. The market goes up over ~10% per year over the long haul. This isn’t random either, there is direct correlation with company earnings. The market gets overhyped, then everyone one sells, and everything between… But, it always follows earnings long-term within ~1% when we zoom out.
I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next META in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, looking for companies to make additions to boost performance
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
Glad to have stumbled on this comment, Please who is the consultant that assist you and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
@@GaryNicka Her name is 'MARY KATHERINE SINGH ’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks
What I don’t understand is, on one hand we are told the stock market will crash and yet on the other we are told ways of investing in the stock market. Oxymoron or paradox? I'm considering investing over $300k, but I'm uncertain about risk mitigation strategies.
Just buy Gold and protect your assets, the stock market is a rollercoaster.
The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds. That’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
Wow, please let me know how i can get in contact!
She goes by ‘Jennifer Leigh Hickman’ I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
omg 21 crash!! omg 22 crash!! omg 23 crash!! omg 24 crash!!! rinse/repeat
central banks keep the giant ponzi afloat.
everything has been a big fake lie since 2009, the economy, markets and banking has been on debt fuelled life support in almost every western country.
the big crash will happen, it shouldve already but the can gets kicked down the road. when it happens itll be catastophic and happen very very quickly.
Well it will eventually be correct. A lot of value loss in the meantime 😅
It's going to crash. Don't be wise in your own eyes
It's not crashing because companies are buying their own stock. Get real, how is the market going up when everything else is going to hell???
Your channel is getting better and better Hamish, another really interesting video👍👍
Another fantastic video. Keep making them and I will keep watching and spreading the word.
Very informative video. Thanks @Hamish
Thank you for again a good explanation video.
For me the value of your video´s went up with your channel´s recent evolutions
So the key takeaways is Dalio uses 6 indicators, and all are useless. It tell you there will be a bubble but not when. Don’t think anyone sane needs an indicator to know that
We still waiting for the 2023 crash and recession
look at the debt loading, the whole ponzi is propped up by central banks and unsustainable debt
@bobboris3528 There is no point in arguing with these people, they either have common sense, and understand what's going on, or they dont.don't. They will most likely understand it all before this year is out.
very good, thank you!
One of your best videos! Thanks, man.
Stocks in the short term look more likely to move downward. I Just inherited $500k which I Look forward to invest. Is this a good time to invest aggressively or be reserved.
you need a certified financial planner straight up! personally, I invest in ETF's and also love investing in individual stocks. yes it’s riskier but am comfortable in my financial environment
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
NICOLE DESIREE SIMON is a hot topic even among financial elitist in California. Just browse, you’d find her, thank me later.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her
Thanks. Good channel :)
Your content just keeps getting better and better! Thanks Hamish for the hard work you put into making these videos.
Hi Hamish, where do you get access to these charts + data? I would love to keep track of these metrics, cheers!
Such a brilliant information ❤
Well done
Hamish, will u ever do a update on asos? It's like super low and you said you invested in it. Would love how you think about it and what you did after this time.
The content in this channel has been very good lately..
Great video!
really great. Informative and interesting, more of youtube should be like this lol
would ML algorithms be able to assess the last bit, pricing, and thus be able to correctly predict a bubble? do you know of any such startups/initiatives?
Or have I undestood the matter in a too simplistic way? Just trying to put 2 and 2 together, as ML is strong with big data, patterns and predictions.
Buffett says that it’s quite impossible to predict the market. How much certainty do we have in those charts being smarter than the smartest investor on Earth?
Exactly. Buffett is currently sitting on the biggest pile of cash ever in Berkshire Hathaway's history--and coincidentally, the Buffett Indicator (market cap vs GDP) is showing the US market as extremely overpriced. If that isn't the sign of a bubble, I dont know what is. Dalio seems to be suffering a case of not seeing the forest for the trees. Just my two cents.
SQQQ for the crash
Does anyone know the ray dalio bubble video he was referring to?
All nice, all right, all heard 1mio times. But what to DO now?
Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve.
Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.
Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look. I have been using an FA since 2019, and I return at least $21k ROI, and this does not include capital gain.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Natalie Noel Burns who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Natalie has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 17k in last month 2024 Investing with Juliana Heidi
Honestly? I'm so excited. Juliana Heidi strategy has normalized winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
The first time we had tried, we invested $5,000 and after a week we received $23,400. That really helped us a lot to pay our bills.
Most people are retiring this year and has nothing to show for. But I assure you it's never late to get your financial life together again.. All thanks to JuLiana for I and my family...
Wow wow please is there any way to reach her services, I work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my loan for a while now, please help me..
*SHE'S ON TELEGRAMS MOSTLY, USING THE USER NAME.*
"It all comes down to interest rates. As an investor, all you're doing is putting up a lump-sump payment for a future cash flow
Starting early is simply the best way of getting ahead to build wealth , investing remains a priority . I learnt from my last year's experience , I am able to build a suitable life because I invested early ahead this time .
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
Great video, I have a quick question. I am an aspiring trader, I am looking study some traders and earn off their expertise rather than investing myself and lose money emotionally. Whats your take on copy trading? Do people really make money? Just looking for some reassurance.
Thank you!
Don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is currently in a downturn and that we must wait for things to get better
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a broker, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
This sound interesting. I’m not really one to use pro analysts, but I guess it would not hurt to try one. My portfolio is in the red waters right now
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Lynne Maris Stella for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, you can look her up
Thanks for this. I curiously searched for her full name and her website came first. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks
Very interesting video my friend! Maybe you can revisit this in like 3-6 months from now?
Daiio does not look at CAPE or Market Cap to GDP measures? Those measure are probably the most accurate ideas of overvaluation on a valuation basis. It seems to me bubbles are nothing else but ideas of how overvalued markets are.
Then why isnt Ray Dalio cashing out of all his investments and opening up a bunch of short positions?
Watch the video
3:12 also when interest rates are low. Yet gotta think of how much debt needs to be paid off.
Overall market looks decent. Top SP500 holdings look bubbly-ish for some.
He's been saying that for years and the market has doubled since
Oh it's about to happen this year facts. Just ask me how I know?
I agree that we need a crash. With that said I need to acknowledge that we now have quantitative easing (money printing) so it’s hard to believe they would not just print more money to stop this from happening.
Hamish, have you read "The Fund" by Rob Copeland
Worth a read if you are going to lean on what Ray Dalio predicts.
But my question is what stocks can be the next APPL in terms of growth for the next decade? I've set asides 500k to invest and my goal is to retire comfortably rich.
No doubt being financially free and able to afford these luxuries cannot be overemphasized, making smart plans and setting up diversified investment portfolios is quite essential.
you don't need that much, as long as you have 250k to 350k in cash, and earn at least 40k plus is fine. It not like you are going to pay the car off, get the car, drive it for a year or two then get something else. You don't need millions of manov to oniov nico thinnc.
Most people miss it but the secret to retiring comfortably is finding a way to make returns while your money works for you. My Dad, as i remember started saving for retirement quite late but I know he was making more than 10k returns from his investments monthly and it was completely passive
@@ericbergman7546 Please could you guide me on how to get in touch with your consultant? My funds are being eroded by inflation and seek a more lucrative investment strategy to effectively utilize before I consider retirement
Look him up ONLINE
Everyone knows very well that the stock market is in a bubble, however, here is the bigger problem: There is so much money around chasing too few great investments, that investors are willing to pay up for these crazy valuations. This is the doing of the Federal Reserve, as people do not trust bonds or treasuries any longer.
In most instances, THERE ARE EARNINGS BEHIND THE STOCK INCREASES - FUNDAMENTALS. Ahhhh - that isn’t a bubble.
I really don’t think trying to pass people trying to fuck over short sellers is the same as the “new buyers bubble gage”.
They weren’t attracted by the price; they were attracted to financially destroying people they view as making a living off something they view as immoral and the new means to do so.
Large-cap stocks and ETFs typically deliver relatively stable returns during periods of heightened volatility and can be great for investors aiming to minimize risk. Renewed buying strength in markets in September and October. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on what to acquire.
As a conclusion: there is only bubble in the tech companies?
is the thumbnail fake?
Good info, to moderate my perennial paranoia. However, a crash *can* occur without those measures being excessive if the public & markets are ignoring large *undermining* factors. Here, I mean persistent inflation leading to recession plus a flight to the USD + accelerated interest rates (the speed), which is recessive; USD high value causing large foreign debt burdens, further pushing up USD in pos. feedback and so foreign recession. It's a global USD problem. Also, increases flight capital into USA stocks. Pushes a global synchronized recession ....... All this beyond mere domestic public "retail" behavior. Then the result can still be ongoing increase in stocks while economies sink. Public assumes a new normal until.... the great unwind from a small event trigger. "Slowly. Then all at once."
Dalio's "indicators" are a marketing ploy. He changes them like he changes his underwear.
This is not that crazy, there’s been a boat load of inflation so I am still behind the last peak.
I put the name you mentioned to google. I’m sending a mail right away, thank you ma’am
Hello everyone, please anyone and also the content owner, if you see my comment, please answer this question. Many analysts and content owners are talking about a violent collapse in the markets and the like, but so far we have not seen that. When do you expect this to happen?
Yesterday
Next week sell off
economy != stock market
NOT.
Dalio😂😂😂😂😂 he was wrong on China and was wrong on the bounce from 2022….. 😂😂😂😂😂 just like grandpa Jeremy …😂😂😂😂😂
Hamish Hodder is similar to my name
Been hearing the bubble terms for past 10 years. It’s the classic way of the rich to keep everyone poor.
short need bubble, long need ai
We are in a bubble now but your right nobody knows when the crash will happen I think around May.
Summer. May, June, July, AUGUST
Something like that
Another day. Another will the market crash video. One day people will be right.
Confirmation bias. How about also showing charts that predict bull market will resume?
Do you know what happens when everyone is predicting a crash? 🤣🤣🤣 for those of you who have missed the entire run since last year, BTFD !!! The crash ain’t coming🤣🤣
Better help is considered a scam by many. You might want to research them before further associating yourself with them.
Had the pump. Started the dump.
Fake dalio tweet image as clickbait
He would have bought the puts for sure before posting this
Nope.
Robin hood robbing tge poor lol
Frothy frothy frothy
What so many scam comments
Another trading/market video for bunch of noobs
Blah blah blah.
Its always a bubble.
Trying to get views
Sponsored video
Boooobllleeeessssss..zxzxxxz
If it was easy enough to look at a few charts and predict a crash then we would all be rich. Don’t be naive.
Nah cus you still wouldn't be able to control your emotions. Sorry bruh.
I guess the analysis part went over your head 😂
These are all bullshit. Crash predictions started in 2021 . Very year they show same content and change year. Meanwhile S and P rallied 9.85 year to date . And last year it was up 23%. S and P hit all time high. Next year they will do the same video and change year to 2025z😂😂😂😂😂😂
That's the same thing they said in the book of Noah
More of your doom and gloom video,
Except it's not
You talked a lot to say absolutely nothing.
Pause the video and look at the chart. He also literally said "No Bubble" multiple times. What were you expecting? Did you want specific stocks guaranteed to 10x?
Jesse Livermore predicted the crash of 1929. He became the richest person in the world at the time.
He also killed himself in a coat/cloak room and is assumed to have done it due to being placed under investigation after new laws regarding insider trading etc took effect.
Follow💗 ok