The Fed's JUST Warned Us - It's Getting WORSE.
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- Опубликовано: 14 мар 2024
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Fed inflation and wage tracker by the NY Fed. Yikes. Not Good. Wage growth.
📝Disclaimer:
This video is not personalized advice for the viewer.
#meetkevin #househack #JuneVegasEvent
![Yikes | This is Concerning [The Fed's New Problem Is Here].](/img/1.gif)
I feel scammed as a middle class person with a family, they print money and it all flows up to the richest in the country. Meanwhile it gets harder and harder to get ahead in life and buy the basics.
Start gardening and canning food
I mean.. you feel scammed because you thought the system was fair? It wasn’t designed to be. It’s a winner take all system. You thought electing other people to make political decisions for you was a good idea. You’re counting on other people to look out for your best interest when their benefactors are the lobbyists and corporations. The politicians don’t work for you, they work for the people who pay them. We made a flawed government system and counted on humanity to do the right thing. It never has and it never will.
Bitcoin is your savior
Start voting to tax the ultra rich.
@@BigHotSauceBoss69buttcoin is just hedge funds stealing suckers money let it run up then the dumb people think oh great ,I'll buy it then wham drops like a fly while they laugh to the bank .
American problem is government spending! China is in disinflation, EU is going towards 2% faster than expected. Why not America? Because government spend too much!
The government spent to prop up the economic data for election
i pay almost 50% in tax, so ofcourse my country have more...
we had a tax on cars on almost 180% a few years ago (now its only 85-150 % ), and gasolin is not free even though we have plenty of that and we have plenty of gas to export
we also spend alot of money, but there is a diffence in investing in green energy or using them for debt and thinking gas and coal is the future...
my country would also look like the states if i did not pay any tax
Hey! How dare you questioning where do they send your tax money?! 😅😂😂
absolutely - giving fed employees huge raises and apologizes that it's not enough.
China does not have disinflation, they have deflation.
It’s crazy to me how Kevin still hangs on every word the fed says. They lie my dude!
He kept saying this last year too... nothing happened.. in fact quite the opposite.
absolutly! the feds words are useless, the only thing that matters is what they do.
He knows they lie. The fact that they lie has no bearing on the fact that they have a greater impact on markets than any other source of influence.
They lie, but their impact on the market remains valid regardless.
They probably lie less than most humans.
They lie and they are also total nerds. Nerds very often are theoretically right, but practically wrong because they fail to appreciate the chaos of human emotion
There's always 3 waves. And the 2nd is the worst. Buckle up boys and girls
You must be speaking from your decades of experience in fiance? 🤡
@@AssetAddict 😂🤣
@@AssetAddict who stays engaged for a decade?
@@AssetAddict no he is referring to the historical charts, you m0ron. If you looked at it, you would see the repeating pattern.
Thank you for the daily market opens and videos. They’re a great source of info. Thank you.
Kevin looking like a Starburst Candy!!
Haha, yes very refreshing 😉
Wow thanks for the info. Very grateful for your knowledge 😊
Can confirm. Company just did a company wide raise and immediately thought about how we’re not restrictive enough.
I will admit that I like that Kevin changes as the data shows him different. Very objective.
He's "data dependent" lol
Merry Xmas everybody
😂😂😂😂
I don’t get it
@@WillingNAbelVids Kevin is wearing a Christmas sweater in March. 😀
Kevin's shirt in the video
Merry Christmas! 🎁🎄
Kevin, we’re not getting rate cuts. Please talk about what to expect when NYC commercial real estate crashes the market. Please talk about what happens when all these too big to fail banks get saved by taxpayers again. You lived through it in 2008. You know the playbook. Let’s hear about that.
The money printer is still going full speed...I went to the grocery store last week the four people in front of me paid with food stamps... full buggies mine almost empty 😢
I call bullshit on this.
And it was a cart full of diabetes it’s disgusting.
Then apply for food stamps I can see him as many government resources as I can at any point in time it's collapsing anyways may as well get your share of its being given away to people fresh into the country
Yea but you gotta make like 28k a year to qualify
Makes me so sick. Or they eat all organic while I buy the normal stuff due to cost.
I’ve honestly losing hope. I don’t even want to apply anymore. The only interviews I was able to get were jobs I were under qualified for only to get passed up by someone over qualified or hired internally. I haven’t heard back from any position I’m over/qualified for. I just can’t make sense of this
Thank you!
Have you made a video about the NAR settlement. That’s pretty dang big news especially from you coming from a real estate background. Would love to hear some insight
Job openings don't necessarily correlate very well with unemployment numbers. In many EU countries, people often end up staying unemployed (on welfare or private insurance) when there's plenty of jobs available simply because the salary offered for those jobs are only marginally higher than what they earn being unemployed. The situation plays out when the companies aren't able to afford higher wages because they have lost pricing power due to inflation, high interest rates, etc., but the welfare is already adjusted for the high inflation. In extreme cases you see unemployed people having more money than low paid workers.
Quit looking at the fake data and start paying attention to what people are seeing and feeling in the economy. Ask business owners how things are... you'll see they are bad.
Even tho the data is all fake it still moves human emotions / markets... 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️❤️❤️❤️✝️✝️✝️
All I see are full buggies in walmart-full restaurants-beaches full at vacation-people still have too much money.
i think alot of it is yolo spending to be honest... i mean think about it, government is doing it why shouldnt I? Almost like we need responsible people being "leaders"... but nah!
@@jeffrucks4477paid for by affirm
@@jeffrucks4477 buggies? You aren’t from around here mate
GM just started handed out huge rebates on many of their products this is a good sign 2500-5300-8000 even some 10,000 off rebates, other automakers following these rebates should be included in inflation data
The Fed doesn’t use any forward looking data. 🤦♂️
appreciate the content specially when its unpopular been watching for a while do you still think we will volatile nike swoosh or do you think we'll hit previous market lows/ move sideways
Kevin is neglecting number of hours worked per week. If i am not mistaken that continues to go down which equates to less demand for labour and hence less pressure on wage growth. Mr Twitter is correct.
Kevin seems to be shorting the heck out of the market right now, not just tesla. Very apparent in the video titles these days.
Bear Kev....
Because Kevin's videos alone totally affect the stock market🤔 You're right, that mischievous Kevin.
He hitting on those shorts
What's wrong with that? Economy is bad shape. Make some money on the delusional bulls
Lol
Good catch. Buying some puts...
Can somebody fill me in on why Kevin is still wearing a Christmas sweater???
lol
We don't actually know.
buy silver before its too late
lol ok doomer
I agree
Nobody cares about silver buy gold
Why silver and not gold or something else
That makes 4 of us in woke math.
You had a large number of commenters warning you of the difference between cyclical inflation and structural inflation. We saw it and we are glad you have joined us
Why is wage growth be an issue? Its also a lagging indicator of salaries not keeping up with inflated prices today!
Unfortunately, the market cannot tolerate wages maintaining parity with inflation.
The system is stacked against wage earners. I hate the fact, but a fact it remains.
Lower growth would help facilitate rate cuts
From what I understand, wage growth is a problem because someone with more money typically has more demand for goods and then pays more for those goods immediately thus causing a price spiral until something collapses.
In my field of work, if a trivial piece of equipment is scratched, the employees discard it and buy a new one. Suddenly people start taking certain things for granted and act wasteful.
Here’s another example, even though the price of gas is going up, I have co workers that leave their company car engine running for 3 hours in idle because they forgot to turn off the engine. Since it’s a company car, they don’t personally pay for the fuel. Gas is literally up 20%.
These are situations with no strict oversight on money supply, the equipment we used are company mandated so there is high demand to keep things stocked- not maintained, and the work is very important so people are obliged in their wants.
Okay, maybe how they treat tools and goods has nothing to do with wage growth… well no, these same people use the system to collect wage raises without putting in more work.
Instead, due to competitive pay and increase in cost of living, we are just given raises regardless of merit. Then you have certain people who get really complacent and stop being productive for various reasons- in my case, the company laid off people a year ago so the work load increased. While I’m growing tired and unmotivated from an awful situation, my co worker takes a post coffee crap after roll call and possibly a nap.
Wage growth is an issue because it’s not based on merit, they are tiny inefficiencies and forms of entitlement. What has congress done to merit salary bumps against wish of the people? What would stop politicians from raising their pay as high as they want?
love ur content
The Christmas clothes got me double checking the video date
Fed has to choose, high inflation or mass job loss. Or a combination of both.
Thanks Kevin!
Please reveal all your short positions! Aside from the Tesla short.
Join the premium trade signal group he has. You gotta pay for Alfa. Nothing free is worth a darn.
I'm a course member and he does send the alert about the moves he's making but right after he releases a video telling everyone what he's doing. Which is fine but he makes it seem like the alerts are a big secret
It’s bc the more people know about it, the more likely it moves in the direction he wants.
And what’s the lag time because most times if they do a video on a Tuesday people don’t see it until late Tuesday or the day after
I think the value is timing, you get in right after he places a trade. Then after everyone that gets alerts makes the trade, you want more people to follow your trend because it makes it more likely to happen (ie if you are shorting a stock, you want more shorters as an example) so him dropping a video some time after the alert helps everyone on that trade that is betting that way. Food for thought. And I'm not a course member.
he rarely does a move tho, the moves are always in pp and we wont get nonstop updates there
Hey Kevin, so how is the new lawsuit settlement? No more 6% gonna work for the market what can we expect?
where is the outro music :(
Hey Meet Kevin are they accurately calculating inflation by accounting for shrinkflation? If they are or aren’t can you go over how?
So dumb question, but when did the Fed start including part time jobs in the available jobs numbers? Cause it seems kind of skewed saying there are all these jobs but people are defaulting on car loans and mortgages. Plus, credit card debt is at an all time high...
Kevin, when looking at new jobs created, the service sector has been pretty strong over the last few months and has good hiring currently. Because this is usually considered an “early cycle” sector, could a rebound in hiring mean an “economic recovery” for the service sector specifically?
The FED has already repeated the 70's. Powell did not raise rates high enough or early enough in the first place. So here comes the second wave of inflation, the tidal wave!!!
@10:00 the way I understand that is that looking only at the month of February each year, Feb 2024 has highest since Feb 09
Salam Alaikum Kevin
Greetings and respect to you from Iraq
People of Iraq love and respect you
good job
What I think, rate hiks are going to be back in the table. Not to say they will happen, but to change expectations.
When Kevin says sell = you buy
So it’s going to be shorts till May?
What’s up with the Xmas sweater
We paying 50% more for our groceries than we did 2020 during the worst of the pandemic but also dudes and gals.. Shrinkflation is hitting us.
No!!!!!
Why did u short Tesla?
Services are unbelievable here in Florida. Plumbers, HVAC are horrible.
Care to elaborate?
Kevin, the first person you were talking about means falling wage growth is a leading indicator for the disinflation. The rationale here is that the fall in wage growth takes a while to be expressed as a fall in inflation prices for goods and services. He is NOT saying that the YoY wage growth chart is leading when compared to the MoM numbers.
Also, you mis-interpreted the Fed statement you quoted around the 7 minute mark in your video.
Kevin: The Fed is saying wage growth can go considerably higher.
Fed: Wage will continue to be markedly higher in the near term than it was before the pandemic.
The Fed is basically saying that wage growth has NOT fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, NOT that it will go a lot higher from CURRENT levels. Please read more carefully. The distinction here is HUGE. The Fed is saying wage growth may have plateaued, NOT that they expect it to go much higher from here.
Maybe Uncle Sam should look at freezing pay raises for government employees, especially those based in D.C. 😉
If he could just boot out that old guy who's been giving away billions and billions and more billions...
Feels like all that wage growth is in the C-suite.
😂 true
Which is also not taxable or accounts for much of the real economy spending (too many freebies)
Don't forget the government sector as well.
Data has been the same Kevin. Tell us when bonds gold and stocks all hit highs, the last 6 months has charted like a giant liquidity grab
I agree with what you are saying about the Fed and rate cuts. They are not going to happen this year the way most are thinking. It’s obvious really.
But what you and others aren’t looking at is federal spending. The excessive spending (debt) is pushing back against recent improvements.
Thanks for actually teaching and displaying appropriate charts. It's too bad you pulled out from politics. You're a good one
Been dip buying EV stocks like Rivian and Nio
Is this last years video? He wearing christmas sweater. Which is actually a nice sweater lol
I'm surprised Intel is not $150/share yet lol
WHAT DIS INFLATION? We are being pummeled by INFLATION!
However, havent Jeremy P. said severeal times that peoples salary has to catch up?
Just look at the UAW latest negotiations, the $20/hour minimum wage for fast food workers in Cali and many other examples.
10:28
Hopefully allot of those job openings are real job openings and not just HR shenanigans.
Great info!!!!💚💸🪙 Oil just crossed its major trendline & looks up from here. Gas is also rising! 🔥 The national avg is $3.41. By May that will be close to $4.60 as it was in May 2023. Food prices continue to climb. There are not enough homes in the market for sale due to the high interest rates. You don't have buyers or sellers and prices remain the same. There are a lot of layoffs. I work at Sony and we just had 900 layoff through Sony interactive and Playstation. My wife's company had layoffs. Many are experiencing this. Until those layoffs hit peak with the rising inflation the Fed will not cut. I don't see how we can avoid a recession in this situation.
$20 min wage in CA except for Panera probably isn't helping wage increase #'s :)
I think from a non-US perspective on your economy the problems are pretty clear: inflation is at 40%, yet cutting interest rates too early can lead to deflation. At the same time, the gap in wages between skilled workers (in short supply) and normal workers is widening. This is an issue in an election year that your country's fiscal policy is guaranteed to address.
Nice sweater…. You outta clean laundry?
JK ~ I agree; cuts are getting less likely every report, hi tech/ growth is getting sold
He knows we hate his sweater that is why he wears it.
Jolts is a joke. Most of those openings are dead.
High paying jobs are replaced by medium/low paying openings
Nike swoosh upside down?!
I need my wages to increase by 100% screw slaving. Can’t afford new stuff just basics.
I also make ok money, so I don’t get how the minimum wagers even survive.
Is it laundry day?
He's shorting everything
I would not use job openings as a markers
How much insider trading is really going on in the Senate, Congress, and politically connected elites?
Xmas 🎅 time! Lol
hell I am running around barefoot and eating beans now how much worse can it get.
A LOT worse. We are headed for the mother of all economic bubbles. Stock up on beans, shoes, socks, razors, rice, bullets and beer. Inflation isn't going anywhere
I think the market will drop due to Japan exiting negative interest in April. That could trigger earlier than expected rate cut in May be? :)
Looks like Kevin forgot about Nike Swoosh.
put my money on the shorts
I think it’s hilarious that people believe the fed, then and meow
Kevin seems to be shorting the heck out of the market right now, not just tesla. Very apparent in the video titles these days
Kevin, are you considering the minimum wage growth in California, Oregon and Washington that just happened in January and the minimum wage growth to $20 per hour for fast food workers in California on April 1.
California is 1/5 of the American economy. If I remember right I could be wrong on that.
So 1/5 of the American economy plus Oregon plus Washington plus I think a few other states are seeing minimum wage mandatory amounts going up. And they just went up. And California is going to go up on April 1 for all fast food workers
That is inflation, but forced.
Outside of those factors, I wonder if the economy is more stable. Inflation is less than we think possibly
Government is hiring more and more while corps are laying off. Gov is worried about a possible stagflation , but then inflation won't be coming down, if you keep hiring
Hello Shorty 😂😂😂
This is over-analyzing of simple situations. Market was very hot and it cools off after a big run. Market has already priced in the removal of rate cuts and there’s really nothing surprising other than news that hasn’t dropped yet that would change the market direction. No one expects inflation to plummet anymore or the fed to perform significant rate cuts market levels reflect probably 1 or 2 cuts at most
The hawkish'est one of them all (Bullard) said last week that he believes cuts may come sooner than recently thought given the recent and cumulating inflation data reports.
“More pain for the market?” What pain?
I thought soft landing?
The Christmas sweater???
so many moving parts. Union contracts are being ratified such as the pilots at major airlines and that was making up for no increases over several years and caused a large jump. Then you have low end jobs where there is a combination of having to pay more to get labor to do crap jobs and automation taking over other jobs. Then you have costly tech jobs that are becoming more efficient and cutting jobs, so wage increases are balanced out by lower amount of workers, etc
Why Xmas sweater
wage growth is likely going up because people need to take on more work (or side gig) due to higher living costs. self fulfilling...
0- job numbers mean number of positions opened. it doesn't a warm body has been hired to occupy the position, and generate tax revenue.
1-number of employed persons has trended down. this stat indicates the level of participation in the economy.
2-disflation? the recent CPI, PPI reports (they all are up). average car cost is around $48,000; Oil price is going up; Houthi will make transportation cost to go up; rent is also going up.
And then a rate upside down sideways into my butt crack cut so we can flatten the upside of the downside into the crease of someone else’s butt crack and we will get constipated and then have diarrhea.
If we're going to have a stock market crash, then shorting banks stocks would be the way to go.
Outside of some stocks that are sensitive to rates, I just don't think we really need rate cuts. A lot of good companies posting amazing numbers. Auto and housing might have a hard year or two but they had amazing years just recently. Let it balance out.
Kevin, States are automatically minimum wages automatically. States like Illinois increased wages by 7% plus. California from $16/hr to $20'hr, proposal of $30/hr in 2028. This is inflationary.
Illinois does another $1/hr in 2025!!!
Plus huge government spending and increased construction wages.
Most people are ignorant of this base wage growth.
Spot on regarding wages spiraling wages, as prices increase ,due to base wage increase, this must be passed on to the consumer in higher prices.
Leading indicators are based off of trends from lagging indicators. Also median changes in job growth comes a lot from most states 2024 minimum wage hikes. My company. A power company made it seem like our wages are going high by paying us higher by adding our bonus to our salary and then still giving us our pep but we will never get our pep again. They increased our wages to 100% of our pep for our new pay but it’s actually a pay cut due to our pep pay out being over 100% 17 of the last 19 years and only 1 year it was 96%. It will make it look like 2024 was tossing around pay increases but we really just got cut wages.
I need that sweater.
Wages are a leading indicator… year over year wage graphs tell you something about TODAY.
🤦♂️