We haven't had a world class defensive unit in almost two decades. I mean our backline Jan onwards will be INSANE. White, Saliba, Gabriel and Timber with Zinchenko and Tomi off the bench
I used to be an Arsenal fan. Now we have the Indian Super League, and I have my own local team. Arsenal winning the league now won't mean anything to me. I wish they had won during the Wenger Era.
He may do, or Klopp might. He's also capable of that kind of form. I think Liverpool have the best 11 in the PL and that they are still kinda settling into the team and also Klopp's new way of playing. They are so close to locking into place though, and look unplayable at times.
Arsenal were arguably a Saliba injury away from winning the league last season and it's impressive how well they've done this time round considering their multiple injuries. They probably still need to improve in attack but keeping Rice, Saliba and Gabriel fit will be key.
@@alexskinner5858 I would disagree in that there's been a lot of disruption to Arsenal's midfield and attack this season compared to this stage last season. So if they can get more consistency in selection, i.e. keeping the same front 3 and midfield for a run of games, the attack should improve without compromising the defence.
Honestly, this was a really great analysis on which teams are most likely to take the title. Two things I would add that are also extremely important is the amount of home vs. away games each team has to play and the number of top 8 teams left to play that could realistically give any team a run for its money. For example, while Liverpool are in 3rd right now, they have already played, Manchester City, Tottenham, Newcastle, and Chelsea away from home. Excellent video!
Villa like Liverpool have got a bit of stick for their away form both only getting 10 points from 7 away games, but like you said both have got the majority of the hard games out of the way (Liverpool, Newcastle, Spurs & Chelsea for Villa) while some other teams have had relatively easy away games.
Good points - also, injury rates are up 10-15% from preceding years, as well as goal scoring. It makes it harder to predict based on past seasons. And, the January transfer window (with all the injuries) could have a bigger impact than usual for teams without such a deep bench as City. While 3 teams are pulling ahead (Arsenal, MC, Liverpool), there's about 5-6 other teams that could tie/beat any EPL team on a given weekend (NewC, AV, Wolves, Spurs, Chelsea). If ManU gets back its pace, they could be contenders, too.
@@anandmahamuni5442Exactly, you're behind Unai. Not to mention the scrappy wins doesn't give much confidence over the season - definitely not title contenders
I think with how tight the league has been so far at the top, any team with a projected 80 points or higher has a chance of winning it this season. And unlike City's 86 point tally, it would be because of the equalisation of the standard of teams across the league.
Rubbish. It's a zero sum game => More teams reaching 85 points = other teams having less points => the league overall is less competitive while City already set a benchmark as good as it can be => the top isn't improving it's leveling out at an overall higher level. In the real world that's 3 teams reaching 80 points or more.
@@stnbch3025 I'm pretty sure your final implication is what I said as well, that its the standard of the league that's coming to a more equal level. I didn't care to say if the top teams got worse or the other teams got better; but for sure it's the rest of the league (minus the newly promoted teams) that have raised the bar As for the first part, that's exactly my prediction, that this season it feels different, it feels to me that not as many teams will reach 85 points this season.
@@nishantverma9225 3 teams reaching 80 points or more is as good as the top gets in the real world. 3rd reaches 80 points once in a while and 4th simply does not compete for 2nd place, 4th is always too shite to reach 80 points. 4th is the first subtop team in the table and depends on the top 3 being weak. 3rd is usually a best of the rest type of team.
@@nishantverma9225 What's gonna happen won't be anything new. It will be something like City + 1, a marginal 3rd because it's chasing too many times behind the facts (probably Liverpool). 4th is not gonna reach 80 points, that anomaly hasn't happened and won't.
From my understanding, this is correct. The winner this year will likely have fewer points than previous years, considering all of these top 8 teams will likely drop relatively many points against each other.
Great video but we need more credit for Gabriel, Ben white and Tomiyasu, who’re all doing an incredible job as well, especially Gabriel. I know saliba has been beyond incredible this season but it’s irritating to see only him getting the credit for our defensive success time after time
@Mars-kj8le why I didn't include him is because he is meant to be more influential in the middle of the park with his progressive passing, but he massively fell off massively this season. Defensively, fans have always been harsh on him, I've always appreciated his defensive prowess, but for me, with 3 CBs in our backline, I judge Ziny going forward
And before you come at me on why I acknowledged Kai, it's because going forward, he has not been good so I judge him from what he has brought to the table so far and that will change when I see him more influential going forward
Once again Gabriel Magalhães doesn't get a mention. Saliba's fantastic ofcourse but Gabriel has been an absolute rock and he's been flawless all season
I’ve been an American fan of arsenal since the invincibles in 03/04 … Saliba is a rock. Once the gunners are healthy, they are going to be hard as coffin nails to beat
@@connor4435 their squad is nowhere near as good as the other 3. I dont buy them as a serious threat they've already been comfortably beaten by Liverpool and Newcastle
@@ryanhlfc maybe but their squad is very good, their manager is levels above Arsenal’s, and like I said they can go top of the league next week, all I’m saying is that Villa are in it at the moment and you need to at least wait until after they play City and Arsenal to write them off
@@connor4435 emery isn't levels above arteta, he's better but levels is a stretch. as a Liverpool fan I'm not too worried about villa but they are dark horses
Did he really say Aston Villa hasn’t had bad injuries this season? 😂 They’ve been missing one third of their starting lineup from last season (Mings, Buendia, Moreno, Ramsey). Traore and Zaniolo also missed the Tottenham game due to injury.
Villa have honestly been incredible despite the injuries and setbacks at Newcastle etc, they well deserve to be where they are. If they can improve their away form I can absolutely see them making a decent CL run next season
Happy for people to underestimate us based on nothing at all, as evidenced here. Keeps the pressure off. Obviously you have to assume the 3 at the top are the most likely but this video reeks so much of manipulating the data to suit specific outcomes to the point that he ended up abandoning any pretence of data analysis the minute he mentioned Villa.
Man Utd is definitely not playing well at the moment, but why do Spurs and Newcastle gets their injuries mentioned ? Utd had their whole backline out for the start of the season. Even now I think there’s like 10+ injuries. It’s even stated how Spurs’ performances are affected by the latest injury crisis but for some reason this is not worth mentioning for United’s ?
@@ezanagebecause they mentioned injuries problem of other teams? they mentioned Aston villa and Newcastle injuries but not United? please watch the video properly before commenting
@@ezanagethey clearly stated that their wins has been going on because of luck, and saying that their GD is an impostor among the top leagues while United literally have 3 Injured left back, 3 Injured centre back, 1 injured right back, in which the starting back 4 last season haven't played together this season?
Villa arent going to win the league of course, but I feel as though because Villa have not had 4 players , who I add were all crucial first teamers last season, since the start of the season these injuries have been over looked because people look at the 11 we have been playing and say they havent had injuries. We have adapted to losing our entire left side of the pitch and we adapted how we play from last season that was a heavy left sided bias, to get the best out the players we had available, Digne has been excellent. After all that we are still 4th , 2 points off top. Now we have 2 of these players coming back (something that gets pointed to with every other club as a turning point for their seasons).
Off the bench substitutes are better than the likes of Spurs. The thing is they just aren't playing better than them which comes down to a managers capability. Unai is not better than Klopp, Ange, Pep or Eddie and that's the difference. He's better than Arteta thou.
@@God_is_an_Atheist666not better than ange or howe? Emery has loads of silverware under his belt since he left arsenal and has taken villa from 16th under gerrard to 4th in just over 12 months. He's completely transformed that team in 1 year. Never mind 2 or 3 going forward.
@@God_is_an_Atheist666 slipped Ange in there like we wouldn't notice! Sorry but Celtic and Yokohama Marinos just aren't going to cut it next to Emery's record.
Good old fashioned analysis. Not this complicated nonsense of underlying numbers. The league will be decided between, Arsenal, Liverpool and ManCity, Period. The rest of the top 8 are fighting for the 4rth spot.
@@DjokerFan It does but the coefficient is mainly based on the leagues inner competition. Also, as long as other europa/conference league teams perform well United and Newcastle going out early won't affect much, we've been the top 1 league consistently for like 5 years by now, I don't see that changing anytime soon
Not going to lie, I normally don't watch if anyone other than JJ or John is presenting. But Sam did a great job here, will look out for more videos from him.
Man Utd being without the first choice back 4 for almost every game this season should be accounted for. We won’t challenge for the title but that was never expected this season.
Great analysis. However, 86 is not "the lowest possible tally" that could win the EPL in the last seven years. You only need better goal difference than the second best team and hence, 74 points would have been enough in 20/21. I would still agree that ~85 points is a good benchmark, but it could have been explained a bit differently 😊
City accumulated 86 points in 20/21, I guess I’m not understanding what you are saying. Are you saying getting 75 points in 20/21 would’ve meant you technically would’ve been in the title race (even though City were 12 points ahead of 2nd place because Liverpool had an injury crisis)?
Can you make a video to explain why Arsenal's defense can be considered the best based on both statistical data and actual performance, while Liverpool's defense is not considered stable, but the number of goals conceded by both teams is quite close?
Whoever has the manager with the most furrowed brow obviously has a huge advantage. Squads need depth of furrows if they're going to maintain quality the whole season.
I love you yet again someone chooses to give the injuries excuse for every team other than united who have had a whole 11 of players out for a lot of the season.
Liverpool need a proper DM. had tougher schedule than anyother title contenders. Yet to see Thiago, bajcetic coming in aswell. Hopefully there are no more injuries.
Also in more than just the title winning season they've had bonkers points per game tallys. In 2019 they had 2.552 points per game across the season. 2020 they had 2.605. 2022 they had 2.42. With 2 down seasons between these I think its realistic we can celebrate another league title. I think after being about 2 goals away from winning the treble in 2022 last year they struggled with overcoming that. I wonder a little if City will have that problems as well.
I dont think realisytically that Villa are in the title race, but the statement "Villa havent suffered bad injuries so far this season"... is clearly incorrect. Buendia and Mings outdoor from start, Ramsey only just getting back to fitness and same with Moreno. I
Its crazy that arsenals boring attack has 1 goal less than Liverpools scintillating attack .. without Jesus , odegaard n martinelli for parts of the season ...
Interesting that you didnt do a comparison on teams played at this stage of the season. Arsenal has played almost everyone in the top 6 bar Liverpool, and might have an easier run-in in December as opposed to the other teams
Everyone: Arsenal isn't scoring enough, but Liverpool is scoring loads of goals Liverpool: *Scores only 1 more goal than Arsenal after 13 games. Everyone: Liverpool's defense isn't good enough, but Arsenal has the best defense Liverpool: *Concedes only 1 more goal than Arsenal after 13 games
Its expected stats though, not actual stats. It shows Liverpool create far more goal scoring chances than anyone else and Arsenal are conceding the fewest chances
Crazy that Spurs were even considered as title contenders. They just lost their best player who carried them last season, changed the entire structure of the club, whilst also making the biggest stylistic switch in the league Conte/Jose/Nuno to Ange. Gotta consider they've gone from one of the oldest and stagnant squads in the league to be amongst the youngest, if they keep buying right and keep sticking to the same ideals they might well be up there contender in 2/3 seasons.
2:52 PLAYING EASY TEAMS. Kinda obvious. Id say Liverpool have by FAR had the toughest opening fixtures. Weve played everyone worth anything away already bar Arsenal and United.
Out of all of the teams mentioned in this video, Liverpool, Newcastle and Villa have had the toughest games so far. Villa have 3 games in 7 days next week which is ending with City and Arsenal back to back with a 2 day rest so they might be top of the list of shitty fixtures.
Villa haven't "suffered any key injuries this year", do you actually look at any teams that arent in the "top 6"? Fed up of this nonsense that these chanels spout (Mings, Buendia, Ramsey, Moreno) You shouldn't put a video up if you don't know what you're talking about
Apparently no one can quite figure out why Man Utd are the “form team” with 5 wins in 6? Let’s see who they have played: Everton (A), Luton (H), Fulham (A), Man City (H), Sheff Utd (A), Brentford (H) Nope, no one can quite figure out why Utd are the “form team” Meanwhile Arsenal, who apparently get bad memories by being top of the table, are only 1 point shy of the “form team” in the last 6 games having played: Brentford (A), Burnley (H), Newcastle (A), Sheff Utd (H), Chelsea (A), Man City (H). An arguably harder stretch of games with Chelsea and Newcastle away in there. Calling Utd as the “form team” without analyzing the relative strength of fixtures is extremely lazy from Tifo.
Ferguson won it soo many times with less than 85 but he could buy the cream from other PL teams and had the other English managers in his pocket. Over rated red nosed Jock
Hey Tifo Irl! Where do you get your frames for your jerseys? Just wondering as I would like to frame my jerseys just like you have. 😊 Thx a lot for your vids they are great.
“Man city just winning it” seems very disrespectful, considering Liverpool pushed city to a single point twice. Point stands though, with it typically being two teams only competing.
Thank you Sam for not making fun of us while we are literally missing half of our main team players (on a level equal with Newcastle lack of availability of their main team members) and actually acknowledging that we can still achieve top 4. Title contenders? No. We never were because it was just all media hype and we spurs fans knew that top 4 is our only main target for the pl this season.
Only two teams are challenging for the league: Liverpool and Arsenal. City are winning it, those two are challenging them for it and the other teams aren't anywhere near the other 3.
Nobody rates those players so those injuries don't seem like big losses to us. Like seriously who of them is supposed to changed everything? Mount? Eriksen? Lmfao
@frederickaugustusdouglass9713 wow you got me. You're right. Those injuries are game changers and United would not have looked like a pub team against City if they were fit.
Crazy how people been roasting Liverpool’s defense when they’ve only allowed one goal more than Arsenal… pair that with their “prolific attack” and I can’t see them coming in anything but first if they continue with their confidence and consistency
Good but there’s a problem, you get the 85pts mark from am average of irrealistic tallies, due to the heaved competition this isn’t a season where anyone is likely hit those kinds of pts therefore less point will be needed to win the league and more teams are in contention
Var difficulties aside- I know but just ignore it for a moment- the competition and football quality on show is amazing this season, real passion on show from the players
After watching United against Everton in convinced United will not even qualify for the UEFA conference league this time.. lucky like hell.. probably the luckiest team..
How can you say villa have no injuries when literally 3 or 4 of our absolute best players are out? And you acted so sure we’d lose to Man City, yet we dominated, again without those key players. People need to stop ruling us out. Will we win the league? Look it would be insane, I’m under no delusions, but we’re certainly in the ‘it COULD happen!’ mix.
"No one is sure how manu are the form team", they've played sheff United, Luton, Fulham and Everton, that's basically the bottom 4. I'm surprised as you're a football channel you hadn't noticed that.
The Man Utd form team thing is a complete meme. They've had a run of narrow wins against relegation contenders. Them being rhe 'form team' is the very definition of being able to twist statistics to whatever narrative ends you need, so long as you can interpret them selectively.
Portugal Their attack will all go through Cristiano Ronaldo, who is not talking about retiring yet but surely is in Last Dance territory with the competition he won in 2016. Roberto Martinez has a wealth of talent in all other areas: Ruben Dias, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes - and they are just the ones based in Manchester. Joao Palhinha is a potential star of the tournament going under the radar.
As an Arsenal fan it’s soo nice to have a good defence at last. We all want to score 5 goals every game but the art of defending is also beautiful!
We haven't had a world class defensive unit in almost two decades. I mean our backline Jan onwards will be INSANE. White, Saliba, Gabriel and Timber with Zinchenko and Tomi off the bench
I'm just glad someone finally mentioned it, lol. Every pod I listen to lately is just like 'And Arsenal win...moving on.'
I used to be an Arsenal fan. Now we have the Indian Super League, and I have my own local team.
Arsenal winning the league now won't mean anything to me. I wish they had won during the Wenger Era.
lol...okay?@@werewolf1803
@@werewolf1803what are you yapping about
We all know Pep gonna casually drop 15 winstreak in February-April.
When KDB and Stones come back it could look very bad for the other teams
@@emilevangheem6165 Turns out, 115 financial violations does help make you a better side.
15 wins 0 FFP deductions lmao
@@astrotheladinvestigation ongoing my friend, we’ll see
He may do, or Klopp might. He's also capable of that kind of form. I think Liverpool have the best 11 in the PL and that they are still kinda settling into the team and also Klopp's new way of playing. They are so close to locking into place though, and look unplayable at times.
Seeing Aston Villa winning the league would be a mad one
More chance of Ten Hag and Pep waking up with hair tomorrow
Dont worry, youre safe.
Even winning the league is pretty hard for Arsenal so, goodluck
hope they don't
I am going to put money on them just in case
Arsenal were arguably a Saliba injury away from winning the league last season and it's impressive how well they've done this time round considering their multiple injuries. They probably still need to improve in attack but keeping Rice, Saliba and Gabriel fit will be key.
I don't think we can improve our attack without impacting our defence. Its one or the other and right now I prefer our current system.
@@alexskinner5858 I would disagree in that there's been a lot of disruption to Arsenal's midfield and attack this season compared to this stage last season. So if they can get more consistency in selection, i.e. keeping the same front 3 and midfield for a run of games, the attack should improve without compromising the defence.
I wouldn't take another CB in the world
They've done so well despite injuries because players in key positions i.e. Saliba have remained fit
maybe when timber is back our attack will benefit, he was amazing in those few games he played
Honestly, this was a really great analysis on which teams are most likely to take the title. Two things I would add that are also extremely important is the amount of home vs. away games each team has to play and the number of top 8 teams left to play that could realistically give any team a run for its money. For example, while Liverpool are in 3rd right now, they have already played, Manchester City, Tottenham, Newcastle, and Chelsea away from home. Excellent video!
Villa like Liverpool have got a bit of stick for their away form both only getting 10 points from 7 away games, but like you said both have got the majority of the hard games out of the way (Liverpool, Newcastle, Spurs & Chelsea for Villa) while some other teams have had relatively easy away games.
Good points - also, injury rates are up 10-15% from preceding years, as well as goal scoring. It makes it harder to predict based on past seasons. And, the January transfer window (with all the injuries) could have a bigger impact than usual for teams without such a deep bench as City.
While 3 teams are pulling ahead (Arsenal, MC, Liverpool), there's about 5-6 other teams that could tie/beat any EPL team on a given weekend (NewC, AV, Wolves, Spurs, Chelsea). If ManU gets back its pace, they could be contenders, too.
Liverpool weakness is against team like Luton. An unexpected loss from bottom teams.
Unai should be on the thumbnail instead of Ten hag tbh
Instead of Ten Hag and Ange, tbh
@@seanrichardson3485 lets give Ange a chance 🥲🤣
We literally are 6th 2 points of Howe ffs
@@anandmahamuni5442exactly
U guys are challenging for top 4, not the league title
@@anandmahamuni5442Exactly, you're behind Unai. Not to mention the scrappy wins doesn't give much confidence over the season - definitely not title contenders
I think with how tight the league has been so far at the top, any team with a projected 80 points or higher has a chance of winning it this season. And unlike City's 86 point tally, it would be because of the equalisation of the standard of teams across the league.
Rubbish. It's a zero sum game => More teams reaching 85 points = other teams having less points => the league overall is less competitive while City already set a benchmark as good as it can be => the top isn't improving it's leveling out at an overall higher level. In the real world that's 3 teams reaching 80 points or more.
@@stnbch3025 I'm pretty sure your final implication is what I said as well, that its the standard of the league that's coming to a more equal level. I didn't care to say if the top teams got worse or the other teams got better; but for sure it's the rest of the league (minus the newly promoted teams) that have raised the bar
As for the first part, that's exactly my prediction, that this season it feels different, it feels to me that not as many teams will reach 85 points this season.
@@nishantverma9225 3 teams reaching 80 points or more is as good as the top gets in the real world. 3rd reaches 80 points once in a while and 4th simply does not compete for 2nd place, 4th is always too shite to reach 80 points. 4th is the first subtop team in the table and depends on the top 3 being weak. 3rd is usually a best of the rest type of team.
@@nishantverma9225 What's gonna happen won't be anything new. It will be something like City + 1, a marginal 3rd because it's chasing too many times behind the facts (probably Liverpool). 4th is not gonna reach 80 points, that anomaly hasn't happened and won't.
From my understanding, this is correct. The winner this year will likely have fewer points than previous years, considering all of these top 8 teams will likely drop relatively many points against each other.
from Mustafi, Luiz, Sokratis, Holding and Chambers, to this??? I'll take this defense all day long!
I remember those terrible days
Great video but we need more credit for Gabriel, Ben white and Tomiyasu, who’re all doing an incredible job as well, especially Gabriel. I know saliba has been beyond incredible this season but it’s irritating to see only him getting the credit for our defensive success time after time
Spot on. Gabriel, White, and Tomiyasu, even controversially, Kai Havertz have all been very important cogs in this Arteta fogging machine
Zinchenko has had better defensive numbers then ben and Tomi this season. Very underrated player
@@Mars-kj8le agree, he was injured for sometime though this season so didn’t mention him
@Mars-kj8le why I didn't include him is because he is meant to be more influential in the middle of the park with his progressive passing, but he massively fell off massively this season. Defensively, fans have always been harsh on him, I've always appreciated his defensive prowess, but for me, with 3 CBs in our backline, I judge Ziny going forward
And before you come at me on why I acknowledged Kai, it's because going forward, he has not been good so I judge him from what he has brought to the table so far and that will change when I see him more influential going forward
Once again Gabriel Magalhães doesn't get a mention. Saliba's fantastic ofcourse but Gabriel has been an absolute rock and he's been flawless all season
I’ve been an American fan of arsenal since the invincibles in 03/04 … Saliba is a rock. Once the gunners are healthy, they are going to be hard as coffin nails to beat
My blud Ten Hag on the thumbnail💀
The only race he'll win is next to be sacked.
Interesting that you don't rank up what hard games each club has left before the second half of the season. Those things matter too.
I think we can all say it’s a win if city loses 🗣️
I think its shaping up to be a 3 horse race between City, Liverpool and Arsenal. And I would bet it probably ends up in that order.
Maybe in the end but at the moment villa are 100% in it, if a team can finish top after 1 more match day then they’re certainly in the title race
@@connor4435 their squad is nowhere near as good as the other 3. I dont buy them as a serious threat they've already been comfortably beaten by Liverpool and Newcastle
@@ryanhlfc maybe but their squad is very good, their manager is levels above Arsenal’s, and like I said they can go top of the league next week, all I’m saying is that Villa are in it at the moment and you need to at least wait until after they play City and Arsenal to write them off
@@connor4435 emery isn't levels above arteta, he's better but levels is a stretch. as a Liverpool fan I'm not too worried about villa but they are dark horses
@@ryanhlfche thought he ate with that stupid comment on arteta
Did he really say Aston Villa hasn’t had bad injuries this season? 😂
They’ve been missing one third of their starting lineup from last season (Mings, Buendia, Moreno, Ramsey). Traore and Zaniolo also missed the Tottenham game due to injury.
Media only started paying attention (to Villa) last week.
I definitely chuckled when he said that. Delusional to say the least.
Villa have honestly been incredible despite the injuries and setbacks at Newcastle etc, they well deserve to be where they are. If they can improve their away form I can absolutely see them making a decent CL run next season
Happy for people to underestimate us based on nothing at all, as evidenced here. Keeps the pressure off.
Obviously you have to assume the 3 at the top are the most likely but this video reeks so much of manipulating the data to suit specific outcomes to the point that he ended up abandoning any pretence of data analysis the minute he mentioned Villa.
@@skillen19 that’s the sad state of affairs mate. Everyone seems to think that when they lose to us they’ve had an “unlucky day” so to speak.
Luton about to come back from behind to win the whole thing
Man Utd is definitely not playing well at the moment, but why do Spurs and Newcastle gets their injuries mentioned ? Utd had their whole backline out for the start of the season. Even now I think there’s like 10+ injuries. It’s even stated how Spurs’ performances are affected by the latest injury crisis but for some reason this is not worth mentioning for United’s ?
why should he mention united injury? united clearly won't challenge the title
@@ezanagebecause they mentioned injuries problem of other teams? they mentioned Aston villa and Newcastle injuries but not United? please watch the video properly before commenting
@@ezanagethey clearly stated that their wins has been going on because of luck, and saying that their GD is an impostor among the top leagues while United literally have 3 Injured left back, 3 Injured centre back, 1 injured right back, in which the starting back 4 last season haven't played together this season?
man utd are like Barca, Madrid etc. they are big clubs and they have pressure to win irregardless. they're not Newcastle/Spurs
Big reason is that united are coming out of an injury crisis but Tottenham and Newcastle are entering one.
Villa arent going to win the league of course, but I feel as though because Villa have not had 4 players , who I add were all crucial first teamers last season, since the start of the season these injuries have been over looked because people look at the 11 we have been playing and say they havent had injuries. We have adapted to losing our entire left side of the pitch and we adapted how we play from last season that was a heavy left sided bias, to get the best out the players we had available, Digne has been excellent. After all that we are still 4th , 2 points off top. Now we have 2 of these players coming back (something that gets pointed to with every other club as a turning point for their seasons).
Off the bench substitutes are better than the likes of Spurs. The thing is they just aren't playing better than them which comes down to a managers capability. Unai is not better than Klopp, Ange, Pep or Eddie and that's the difference. He's better than Arteta thou.
@@God_is_an_Atheist666not better than ange or howe? Emery has loads of silverware under his belt since he left arsenal and has taken villa from 16th under gerrard to 4th in just over 12 months. He's completely transformed that team in 1 year. Never mind 2 or 3 going forward.
@@God_is_an_Atheist666 slipped Ange in there like we wouldn't notice! Sorry but Celtic and Yokohama Marinos just aren't going to cut it next to Emery's record.
@@God_is_an_Atheist666ange and howe? 🤣🤣🤣
I think if Stones N KDB return, they becomes big trouble to other contenders😊
Good old fashioned analysis. Not this complicated nonsense of underlying numbers. The league will be decided between, Arsenal, Liverpool and ManCity, Period. The rest of the top 8 are fighting for the 4rth spot.
There's a fifth Champions League spot too, these days.
@@mjmulenga3it's for Europa league
@@MIKhan-mh6fsIf UEFA think it's worthy based on our coefficient we will get a 5th CL spot
@@ephemeralburbif United and Newcastle are done in Group stages, won't this effect England's coefficient
@@DjokerFan It does but the coefficient is mainly based on the leagues inner competition. Also, as long as other europa/conference league teams perform well United and Newcastle going out early won't affect much, we've been the top 1 league consistently for like 5 years by now, I don't see that changing anytime soon
Not going to lie, I normally don't watch if anyone other than JJ or John is presenting. But Sam did a great job here, will look out for more videos from him.
It is so nice seeing the attention Saliba gets, truly the Van Dijk of Arsenal. Just look at how he handeled Haaland in the City game
The nerve to put Ten Hag in there but not Emery
That's fine but Emery wouldn't belong in the thumbnail anyway.
Man Utd being without the first choice back 4 for almost every game this season should be accounted for. We won’t challenge for the title but that was never expected this season.
It kinda was. It was very talked about as the next step. Just like Spurs fans expect to challenge for the title next season
To be fair anybody will be lucky to get Europa league. There is 8-9 incredible teams this season fighting for top spots.
The rest of us are wondering which month you sack the latest manager.
Great analysis.
However, 86 is not "the lowest possible tally" that could win the EPL in the last seven years. You only need better goal difference than the second best team and hence, 74 points would have been enough in 20/21.
I would still agree that ~85 points is a good benchmark, but it could have been explained a bit differently 😊
City accumulated 86 points in 20/21, I guess I’m not understanding what you are saying. Are you saying getting 75 points in 20/21 would’ve meant you technically would’ve been in the title race (even though City were 12 points ahead of 2nd place because Liverpool had an injury crisis)?
Can you make a video to explain why Arsenal's defense can be considered the best based on both statistical data and actual performance, while Liverpool's defense is not considered stable, but the number of goals conceded by both teams is quite close?
Putting Ten Hag in the thumbnail is hilarious. 😂
Great to see Villa up there.
I fancy Arsenal to win the league so long as they keep up the grit that's seen them win tough games, and find Havertz's best position.
man those required points per game stats are sobering
Whoever has the manager with the most furrowed brow obviously has a huge advantage. Squads need depth of furrows if they're going to maintain quality the whole season.
I love you yet again someone chooses to give the injuries excuse for every team other than united who have had a whole 11 of players out for a lot of the season.
Liverpool need a proper DM.
had tougher schedule than anyother title contenders. Yet to see Thiago, bajcetic coming in aswell. Hopefully there are no more injuries.
Also in more than just the title winning season they've had bonkers points per game tallys. In 2019 they had 2.552 points per game across the season. 2020 they had 2.605. 2022 they had 2.42. With 2 down seasons between these I think its realistic we can celebrate another league title. I think after being about 2 goals away from winning the treble in 2022 last year they struggled with overcoming that. I wonder a little if City will have that problems as well.
I dont think realisytically that Villa are in the title race, but the statement "Villa havent suffered bad injuries so far this season"... is clearly incorrect. Buendia and Mings outdoor from start, Ramsey only just getting back to fitness and same with Moreno. I
Its crazy that arsenals boring attack has 1 goal less than Liverpools scintillating attack .. without Jesus , odegaard n martinelli for parts of the season ...
The xG difference versus Liverpool is just 0.3, as well. It's crazy.
That's the thing with expectation vs reality. Liverpool's 'leaky' defense only has one less goal than arsenal's imperious defense
@fangdog29 0.3 is a lot for xg lmao multiply that by 38 and you get more than 10 goals.
@@fikky.b8246 this xG over all games played. Not xG per game. Think twice.
@@fikky.b8246 so, it translates to less than a 1 goal difference over 38 games. Get it?
Interesting that you didnt do a comparison on teams played at this stage of the season. Arsenal has played almost everyone in the top 6 bar Liverpool, and might have an easier run-in in December as opposed to the other teams
Liverpool has already played City, Newcastle, Spurs and Chelsea away.
Same as Arsenal, so that match on the 23 is going to be a cracker!
Everyone: Arsenal isn't scoring enough, but Liverpool is scoring loads of goals
Liverpool: *Scores only 1 more goal than Arsenal after 13 games.
Everyone: Liverpool's defense isn't good enough, but Arsenal has the best defense
Liverpool: *Concedes only 1 more goal than Arsenal after 13 games
Its expected stats though, not actual stats. It shows Liverpool create far more goal scoring chances than anyone else and Arsenal are conceding the fewest chances
@@Ben-gd4db Fair point
Liverpool arent conceding as many goals as expected largely because of how good Alisson is - he's made some top class saves despite the criticism.
Out of curiosity, how would a chart of xGD (expected goal diff) look for the top 8? Would be nice to see how LFC's xG/xGA compares to that of AFC.
Worldie of a sweater - anyone know where to find it??
City, Arsenal, Liverpool. No one else is in the conversation.
A really good one!!! Congrats!
Crazy that Spurs were even considered as title contenders. They just lost their best player who carried them last season, changed the entire structure of the club, whilst also making the biggest stylistic switch in the league Conte/Jose/Nuno to Ange. Gotta consider they've gone from one of the oldest and stagnant squads in the league to be amongst the youngest, if they keep buying right and keep sticking to the same ideals they might well be up there contender in 2/3 seasons.
2:52 PLAYING EASY TEAMS. Kinda obvious. Id say Liverpool have by FAR had the toughest opening fixtures. Weve played everyone worth anything away already bar Arsenal and United.
Newcastle have had the toughest opening fixtures
@@calum9124Newcastle aren't title challengers
All of us are waiting for that United game. Please give us another 7
Arsenal have played tough games bar Liverpool
Out of all of the teams mentioned in this video, Liverpool, Newcastle and Villa have had the toughest games so far. Villa have 3 games in 7 days next week which is ending with City and Arsenal back to back with a 2 day rest so they might be top of the list of shitty fixtures.
Villa haven't "suffered any key injuries this year", do you actually look at any teams that arent in the "top 6"? Fed up of this nonsense that these chanels spout (Mings, Buendia, Ramsey, Moreno) You shouldn't put a video up if you don't know what you're talking about
Tbf Moreno, Mings and Buendia were all pretty much out from the start of the season, which the video accounted for; you're right about Ramsey though
Putting Ten Hag on the thumbnail and not Emery is wild lmao
It was 2 weeks ago tbf
OMG! That jumper! I NEED it!
Apparently no one can quite figure out why Man Utd are the “form team” with 5 wins in 6? Let’s see who they have played: Everton (A), Luton (H), Fulham (A), Man City (H), Sheff Utd (A), Brentford (H)
Nope, no one can quite figure out why Utd are the “form team”
Meanwhile Arsenal, who apparently get bad memories by being top of the table, are only 1 point shy of the “form team” in the last 6 games having played: Brentford (A), Burnley (H), Newcastle (A), Sheff Utd (H), Chelsea (A), Man City (H).
An arguably harder stretch of games with Chelsea and Newcastle away in there.
Calling Utd as the “form team” without analyzing the relative strength of fixtures is extremely lazy from Tifo.
Such a great vid, loved the statistics-based approach
this barely counted as a statistics based approach.
@@skillen19don’t know what you would count this as then considering it’s a video full of stats-based reasoning…
Once Liverpool locks into place in terms of the team settling, they'll be totally unstoppable (bar injuries).
Great video blud 👍🏼
Why stop it before Leicester in 15/16😂😂 81 pts
Ferguson won it soo many times with less than 85 but he could buy the cream from other PL teams and had the other English managers in his pocket. Over rated red nosed Jock
Hey Tifo Irl! Where do you get your frames for your jerseys?
Just wondering as I would like to frame my jerseys just like you have. 😊
Thx a lot for your vids they are great.
Liverpool need a proper DM and Arsenal need a proper striker . Its between them two to pull awy from City .
“Man city just winning it” seems very disrespectful, considering Liverpool pushed city to a single point twice. Point stands though, with it typically being two teams only competing.
Where is Aston villa coach
Where is Newcastle United coach
They have no chance of winning the league.
@@shukuchimukyo892 okay that's yours opinion
Why is Ten Hag's image there?!!
I want that sweater.
Thank you Sam for not making fun of us while we are literally missing half of our main team players (on a level equal with Newcastle lack of availability of their main team members) and actually acknowledging that we can still achieve top 4.
Title contenders? No. We never were because it was just all media hype and we spurs fans knew that top 4 is our only main target for the pl this season.
this is cool and all but where did u get that sweater
Excellent video and a very likeable presenter.
Only two teams are challenging for the league: Liverpool and Arsenal. City are winning it, those two are challenging them for it and the other teams aren't anywhere near the other 3.
Where can I buy the top you are wearing Sam
This actually should be addressed after Jan-Feb. We all know city is going to go on a kill streak in the 2nd half of the season
Sam: Newcastle has had one of the most hideous injury list this season.
Man Utd enters the chat...
Our injuries don't count.
Nobody rates those players so those injuries don't seem like big losses to us. Like seriously who of them is supposed to changed everything? Mount? Eriksen? Lmfao
@@3bladeninja21 Spoken like a true bot
@frederickaugustusdouglass9713 wow you got me. You're right. Those injuries are game changers and United would not have looked like a pub team against City if they were fit.
Where can we buy the Christmas jumper?
The answer is, neither of those 3 teams. This will be another "Leicester" season. If you know what I mean. In Unai we trust.
You forgot to mention Mansour FC's best player - PGMOL. It has effectively made life easier for them ever since Fergie the fixer retired.
They've had quick pens in a couple of games too. Happened with Chelsea. Ridiculous really.
@@fangdog29 rodri handball in 21/22 is still one of the worst decisions I've ever seen considering the potential impact.
Crazy how people been roasting Liverpool’s defense when they’ve only allowed one goal more than Arsenal… pair that with their “prolific attack” and I can’t see them coming in anything but first if they continue with their confidence and consistency
Good but there’s a problem, you get the 85pts mark from am average of irrealistic tallies, due to the heaved competition this isn’t a season where anyone is likely hit those kinds of pts therefore less point will be needed to win the league and more teams are in contention
Good analysis
How do you design these charts, I love the streaks and how clean it is .
Where can I get this sweater?
"Arsenal's mean defense" definitely has a nice ring to it
That jumper is something else!
Fair evaluation 👍🏻
Mans really spent 12 minutes telling us Arsenal, City and Liverpool are the title contenders. We knew that already lol
Var difficulties aside- I know but just ignore it for a moment- the competition and football quality on show is amazing this season, real passion on show from the players
After watching United against Everton in convinced United will not even qualify for the UEFA conference league this time.. lucky like hell.. probably the luckiest team..
mate, they are always lucky in the end
Love the jumper, R9!
Man Utd have yet to get points against a top half of the table team
If my team Liverpool can't do I'd love Villa to.
How can you say villa have no injuries when literally 3 or 4 of our absolute best players are out?
And you acted so sure we’d lose to Man City, yet we dominated, again without those key players.
People need to stop ruling us out. Will we win the league? Look it would be insane, I’m under no delusions, but we’re certainly in the ‘it COULD happen!’ mix.
mentions injury problems for every team but not for United 👍🏼
cool sweater bro
"No one is sure how manu are the form team", they've played sheff United, Luton, Fulham and Everton, that's basically the bottom 4.
I'm surprised as you're a football channel you hadn't noticed that.
There’s no question saliba is the best defender in the prem if not the best defender in the world
You actually added Ten Hag's photo ina question of winning the title? 😂😂😂😂😂
I'm a Liverpool fan but aside from us, I'd be happy to see anyone apart from city win it (and United).
Don't think you have much to worry about from United
You're probably safe on the United front. 😂
What's Ten Haag Face Doin there
Gave me a good laugh seeing Ten Hag in the thumbnail 😂
Can you do a Monte carlo simulation from this point in the season?
The Man Utd form team thing is a complete meme. They've had a run of narrow wins against relegation contenders. Them being rhe 'form team' is the very definition of being able to twist statistics to whatever narrative ends you need, so long as you can interpret them selectively.
Me: "this is a really good and informative video"
Also me "did he say goals allowed instead of goals against?"
“High flying attacking Liverpool” only have 1 more goal than “stuttering attack Arsenal”…..
Portugal
Their attack will all go through Cristiano Ronaldo, who is not talking about retiring yet but surely is in Last Dance territory with the competition he won in 2016. Roberto Martinez has a wealth of talent in all other areas: Ruben Dias, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes - and they are just the ones based in Manchester. Joao Palhinha is a potential star of the tournament going under the radar.
Unfortunately underlying numbers don’t account for the history of the Tottenham 😂
I absolutely adore your sweater. I'll be mighty happy if you gimme the store name😊
The idea of The Goblin King prowling around the Tifo offices, forcing people to take underlying numbers seriously is quite amusing. 😂
We've missed Odegaard more when he has been on the pitch than when he hasn't.