Mick Ryan - To Avoid Ukrainian Defeat by a Thousand Cuts the NATO Strategy Needs to Radically Change
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- Опубликовано: 27 июл 2024
- Barely a week goes by without things occurring that would have been inconceivable three years ago. Russian territory being hit by American made munitions, history’s most substantial sanctions in place against Russia, a near coup against the Kremlin, and Putin going cap-in-hand to Kim-Jong-Un to prop up his ailing military. What more can happen before these tensions and conflicts coalesce into World War 3 - especially the expectations that Korea troops will soon be fighting on the territory of Europe.
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CHAPTERS:
00:02:11 It’s troubling that the largest land war since WWII is getting so little coverage
00:06:39 The great moral challenge with Spheres of influence as a geopolitical idea
00:11:10 Some terrible rules and red lines have been imposed on Ukraine by the US
00:14:14 China's interests are served by this war continuing because it distracts the US
00:21:05 Extraordinary pace of evolution of electronic warfare with drones and tactics
00:27:54 The British military has been run down in size, but not run down in quality
00:34:13 Russia’s extraordinarily profligate strategies risk exhaustion and defeat
00:36:50 No battalion ever thinks it's got enough ammunition and they’re probably right
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Mick Ryan is a retired major general in the Australian Army. A graduate of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and the U.S. Marine Corps University Command and Staff College and School of Advanced Warfighting. He has commanded at platoon, squadron, regiment, task force, and brigade level. In January 2018, he assumed command of the Australian Defence College in Canberra, Australia. In 2021 he was an adjunct scholar at the Modern War Institute. He completed his 35-year career with the Australian Army and transitioned to the Army Reserve as a major general on February 27, 2022. His book, War Transformed, was published in 2022, ‘White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan’ was published in 2023, and his latest book "The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire", will be released on 13th August 2023.
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LINKS:
x.com/WarintheFuture
mickryan.substack.com/
www.csis.org/people/mick-ryan
mwi.westpoint.edu/adjunct-sch...
x.com/LowyInstitute
x.com/CSIS
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BOOKS:
War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict Hardcover (2022)
White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan (2023)
The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire (2024)
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ARTICLES:
www.forces.net/ukraine/death-...
www.businessinsider.com/russi...
www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe...
edition.cnn.com/videos/world/...
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-int...
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Come Back Alive
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NATO is trying to make an omelette without breaking any eggs.
Very well said!
If by “breaking eggs” you mean giving in to provocations to start a war that could easily cost a trillion Euros and the lives of tens of thousands of NATO troops, then sure. I get why they’re going slow, even if it is painful to watch.
That's a great analogy, but it's too generous. NATO is more accurately trying to make an omelette by throwing some feed into the hen house and hoping the chooks make the omelette. Their main objective seems to be "don't upset the fox too much", because, you know, the fox might launch its nukes...
What is the omelette and what are the eggs in your analogy?
A nuclear warhead is not an egg 🙄
Thank you so much Jonathan, please keep doing what you are doing. There is no replacement for people understanding the value of democracy and what it takes to defend it.
👍👍👍
democracy implies elections, doesn't it? Perhaps you should remind elenski of it LMFAO
NATO should have changed months ago..... i pray its not too late....
It's too late, Ukraine is devastated and it's all thanks to NATO
Another great guest! Thank you for your tremendous work, Jonathan!! 🇺🇦🇺🇸🇺🇦🇺🇸
👍👍👍 thanks for your support.
Mick Ryan is a great guest. Always well informed, insightful and keenly analytical. Never afraid to speak the truth. Thanks for hosting him with well put questions, Jonathan.
Loved seeing you on Jake Broe's live pod with all your British cohorts the other day, too!
Mick is always interesting and a great supporter of Ukraine. Proud he and I have cooperated on support for medics in this war.
Mick Ryan is an Australian legend and the USA needs to listen to him
Best one yet Jonathan, how great to get an objective perspective that isn't European or American.
👍👍👍
Rayn is very-very good--Thanks, Henning olsen, Denmark
Keep doing such a great job, Jonathan!
timor leste oil thieves agree
@@Myanmartiger921 ??
Superb interview. Thank you.
Intelligent conversation and point of veiw. Thank you, I hope your words are taken to heart by world democratic leaders.
Thanks Johnathan & Mick
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇦🇺🇦🇺🦘🦘🦘💪
Mick is always right on point with the information he shares. One of the most credible experts on the real state of the Ukraine conflict and current world politics
Thank you, Jonathan. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
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Ukraine must stay strong,Slava Ukraine,I stand with Ukraine people🇺🇦,
We need more Mick Ryan in our lives. Thank you Jonathan for a fantastic episode.
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Thank you Jonathan Fink and all your wonderful Guests. I wish policy makers would listen to Mick Ryan 💙💛
NATO should go in to Ukraine then if the crap hits the fan then let it do so
This is Insane and dangerous far right extremism
You'd best be first in line at the conscription office.
@@tomarmstrong1297 this channel deletes comments that go against “The Narrative”
@@tomarmstrong1297 I will like million more will
@@tomarmstrong1297 Why would he? This is why countries have defence forces.
Stop being a vatnik troll.
Thank you again for your great work
Thank you! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
@@SiliconCurtain great to have a wide range of guess from all over the world
@@SiliconCurtain * guests
Always good to read or hear from Mick Ryan
Thank you for your coverage and insights
🇬🇧🇺🇦🏴🇺🇦🏴🇺🇦🇪🇺
My word.....this chap knows his onions!
Great insightful content
Great guest here , an Aussie that understands the issues and the way forward ..
Yeah, right!
Brilliant interview. Mick nailed it.
Mick Ryan has his shit in one sock. A military slang, for he knows what he is talking about. NATO needs to listen.
Lol... Can't help wondering what's in his _other_ sock!?😅
Other sooc is stuffed with mondey
Why in his sock? Why not in his toilet or a plastic bag? Putting it in his one sock tends to reduce his credibility.
At last someone can say it as it is.
That is the most introspective statement. The right observers is 1000% that combined arms needs to adapt.
The Australians invented combined arms in 1918 and its success utterly relied on integrating air power on the front line. It was an intellectual advance that seems to be lacking now about how to adapt in a war where aircraft have a very different role. So, what Ryan is saying about developing the tactic of combined arms, possibly without manned aircraft, is a key question in how to defeat Russia. For instance, is the focus on F-16s and the cost and training delays simply a reaction made from past tactics that could more quickly, easily and cheaply solved with drones?
NATO should change its policy. The voting for membership should be done by the majority of votes not all of them.
I don’t remember any point in history where ”individual” vetos where a good thing.
Totally agree, the same should apply to EU membership.
Your ancestors coming from the country where I live since 34 years (migrating from Western Germany) is a really nice challenge in comparing faces I see everyday downtown Vienna :-) As for your work , I love your humanitarian/calm/analytic /competent approach which I definitely don't share, especially after the hospital. So, sorry for my past and future comments 😛 Slava Ukraini from Vienne/Autriche
Always good to hear Mick's thoughts 🇦🇺
Great guest - great commander - great analyst!
yes, 'Breaking up Moscow empire is the only way to end its imperialism', And I don’t mean Putin´s imperialism, but Moscow imperialism in general , from Solzhenitsyn and Brodsky to Yeltsin and Dugin.
Absolutely! poo tin is the symptom not the cause, poo tin didn't create ruSSia, ruSSia created poo tin!
How do we end American imperialism?
@@johnhume4346 Дело движется к концу, Моль летает по дворцу, Какая боль, какая боль, Весь мир плюёт на эту моль! Ждём дистанционную швабру, для повышения духовноскрепности в Швабростане 🇷🇺
Чмобики 🇷🇺 : - Товарищ майор, еды хватит только на пол батальона?
Майор 🇷🇺 : - Ну, тогда пообедаем после атаки.
Good luck breaking up an ascending global power. Unfortunately the west has had it's innings! It's now time for a more democratic hegemon! If you live in the states or the non -Hungarian EU - times up!
@@johnhume4346 by not addressing it at all. If you call America imperialist you are a communist and your oppinion taints the Free Speech (and most likely will be removed)
Thankyou that was really interesting.
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Extra-ordinary analysis Mick. Ask him harder questions, Jonathan 😁😁 looking forward to the book👏👏🏴☠️🇺🇦
Thank you both!
A great show, thanks for hosting such a good channel Slava Ukraine.
Sth Australia. Thanks Jonathan- for your work-much appreciated. Thanks for the quality of your speakers too- very important for us out here.
DATELINE KYIV OBLAST
Good interview. An informative conversation. Thank you, gentlemen.
V/r - IB
An American in Ukraine
(2019 - Present)
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Keep it up 👍
Silicon Curtain with yet another absolute top shelf guest! 🇺🇦
Why are NATO leaders ignoring their military leaders. I can’t believe they are saying anything different to the retired military leaders.
Thanks!
Thank you Jonathon and Mick. A ripper of an interview, bloody beauty mate!
Thank you, Jonathan and Mick Ryan, for your interesting conversation.
🇺🇦 Перемоги та миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦
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Thanks Jonathan 😊
I saw a drone video from front line combat. One Russian on a scooter, not a motor scooter but kicking his foot on the ground. A dog and another soldier were running just as fast.
Nobody thought that the men in pajamas and recap sandals could defeat the B-52s...
Great interview 👍 LOVE the backdrop Mick is using.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 ❤
Thanks Jonathan. Another triumph of deep analysis and common sense.
Thank you for this great analysis.
ok cnnn
An excellent vid. Mick Ryan was an impressive and informed guest
There is a reason why in Finnish verb "Ryssiä" (Muscovy) , roughly meaning "to totally fail something".
Listening to Jonathan and Mick R. Is highly interesting. Thanks to expand my horizon.
Mick Ryan is absolutely right.
It's a matter of another context, I think, but that famous Ronald Reagan quote of "When we needed tigers, we got kittens"[*] seems to apply well to NATO's administration. {[*]Getting this from memory. Apologies if I've made a mistake.}
Thx
Great interviews
Slava Ukraini 1991
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦✌🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Greetings from Australia and thanks for all the great work you do Johnathan. I have a question and maybe you could help. Why are more questions not asked of Jake Sullivan and Donald Trump, in relation to their controversial positions on Ukraine? For example; If the USA were invaded and under constant missile attack by a powerful enemy, 1. Would Sullivan refuse to launch missiles at the enemy launch sites in fear of escalation? and 2. Would Trump be willing to hand over Alaska and the state of California as a trade-off for peace????
You need to understand that neither Sullivan or orange traitor are invested in Ukraine's victory. That's the whole point. The former has no military experience or understanding of proactive military strategy and is frightened of escalation from putler, while the latter is only concerned with transactional diplomacy, what will benefit him, his legacy and his bank balance. His blackmailing of President Zelenskyy should have shown you that.
They would probably refuse to come onto the program because they wouldn't want to answer the questions or if they did they probably would want to charge a huge price for doing the interview.
Another great conversation. Thank you. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
🗣️Merci!✨
Come on people SUBSCRIBE!!! Help Johnathon reach that 100,000 milestone! He deserves our support for all his hard work getting these fabulous guest! Push that button! Slava Ukraine
Is that a Star Wars: Battle of Yavin command center background? My, man.
Let NATO join Ukraine ,they would lead the way on fighting skills.
Great guest Aussie General with a very realistic down to earth perspective.
Always like hearing Mick's informative take. This time coming to us from the steampunk bunker...
What is the point of forming an alliance if you really do not have the stomach to follow through when the alliance is needed? Ukraine may not technically have ever joined NATO, but this was under consideration. It is cowardly to hide behind a technicality. What if Ukraine had already joined? Would NATO hesitate to honor its commitment? Why is the actual moral duty to defend Ukraine today any less than the duty to defend Poland?
When the alliance was formed we did have, but decades of complacency, and head in the sand self-serving politicians since the fall of the Soviet Union have weakened it.
Great presentation
Excellent talk - thanks to you both! I do think we are missing out on learning by not having appropriate people in-place in Ukraine - we're letting Russia work out how to counter our weapons but not seeing that for ourselves - I do hope this doesn't come back to bite us later.
Looking forward to see 100K subscribers in the next few days 😊. Keep up the good work. Great channel.
🎉😃🍾!!!
Part of the issue is the wording of the Budapest agreement in relation to the 'assurance'. It seems to constrain the US in its supply if weaponary.
It depends on where weapons are sourced. For example sourcing from countries other than the US is less constrained.
It is worth reading.
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"When will we learn this lesson? How many more dictators need to be appeased and appeased? Give them some more privileges, territories?"
Every time I talk to dumb people they say, "who cares about Ukraine, not our problem". My answer is, "imagine if Russia wins, then their border moves over to Poland, Hungary, Austria and Romania, and then what? Do you think they'll stop there?" NATO is weak and Putin the bully knows it. He HAS to be stopped NOW, before it escalates into something far worse, and FAR more costly and dangerous.
Great interview with a very good guest.
Great guest…Silicon Curtain is always very high quality
Thank you, Jonathan.
Great interview.
P.S.
There is a minor typo in last paragraph of Mick's description: 2024. (To match with his below book list.)
Very good interview and comments. Don't forget Russian adventurism in Africa. Also, China benefits from weakening of Russia and is expanding its influence throughout Central Asia, purposefully sending enough to keep Russia in the field for that purpose w/o triggering sanctions?
Mick Ryan is a loyal cog in the American global hegemony machine. The conditions might change but his message stays loyally on the official narrative.
I see what you did there.😅
Ten minutes in and I'm already becoming disoriented from the gaslighting because they both seem so earnest.
I remember earlier on in the war, he was asked are you here to pass on your knowledge. Instead, he said words to the effect, I'm here to observe and learn from the best. I think Mick Ryan and Ben Hodges offer a unique point of view that more should take more notice.
Superb analysis Jonathan. Always great to hear from Mick Ryan. Military historians Saul David and Patrick Bishop's "Battleground" (Ukraine) weekly podcast also worthwhile tuning into.
Good stuff Mick!
Thanks
Awesome interview, awesome guest!
Gr8 video thanks!
I think only Mick could bring on someone so specifically educated on a topic. Cheers
Don't you mean Jonathan
I love how your channel description is so accurate for the content you produce :)
🔱🌻slava 💙💛ukraine 😊✌
Winning in Ukraine is about peace in and some stability in Europe…it’s not just about Ukraine
Very informative, but I have to wonder if these commanders have anything to say about a modern war that they have not been involved in. I would rather see some people involved with the Ukrainian defence force and military personnel from the eastern flank.
I love Mick Ryan's expert opinions and analyses. Expert and considered. Definitely not an armchair geek who likes to think he's an expert. Not theoretical, military. Straight to the point. More please.
Then nato rule its only staying togheter if be attacked, if nato member attacks then no another must support aggressor totaly!
Why is turkey then in nato?
The problem with the West's and NATO's response is that it prolongs the war and provides room for people to switch off and question the costs. Biden and NATO (Germany) have been very poor in supporting Ukraine.
Those two you mentioned... their fear of a nuclear escalation by ruzzia is likely higher than for the rest. It's completely understandable. Whether it's correct is a matter of opinion. But they each have to make descisions and wear the consequences, even though Ukraine is the ultimate victim in all of this. I guess what I'm saying is it's not as easy as you would paint it when you're the decision maker, e.g., Biden.
I think that NATO and EU should just fund the purchase of weapons with unlimited restrictions against Russia. Secondly, set up a permannet funding for ukraine and build up ammo reserves. That way it does not matter what the strategically inept americans decide to do. I wonder what will happen if Trump wins in 2024 ? A concerned Aussie
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Top Shelf guest
Why aren’t there more observers
Logistics companies with mottoes like "just do it" -- Should we be sending aid packages via FedEx?
Leaders in the US Ukraine Proxy War against Russia were extremely involved in corruption do not have Tactics and Strategy to counter Russia. Their concept to fight the war went astray with corruption. As such, impossible to win a war that they can never win.
the priceless evolution from victory reports to thousand cuts defeat... I really feel sorry for poor ukrainians if their future is in these hands...
India helps Russia. Cards marked.