I was delighted when I saw your videos starting off the Eurovision season. You are my favorite channel to watch. In fact, you have become my only channel to watch. You are always kind and respectful, and you keep it light hearted and fun.
The Netherlands did also announce that they will participate in 2026. Crazy that it was so uncertain if they would even participate in 2025 and now everything is suddenly fine again.
Hello !! Thank you for your video (you always brighten my day each time you publish one). I do not know and i cannot even try to predict who will win BUT i wanna share who I WANT to win : Lithuania, Cyprus, Iceland, Czechia. They're always consistent and i love this countries so much, in addition i would love to see a first win. (Estonia or Latvia win would be amazing too)
It would certainly give Estonia a much needed boost when they were doing badly with the televoters. He needs to have a song that has televoter AND jury appeal to do well. The juries might tank him since his songs are normally quite 'fun'
Mines are either France, Finland and Croatia. I know Finland has been quite unstable, but they could get a win this or next year. I have a feeling that France might surprise us and keep a consistent streak of great results and eventually winning. Croatia might keep the momentum and send another outstanding song and winning.
I was thinking that this was way, way, way too early for a prediction video, but it actually made sense. It was nice to see Finland there. There is this eternal hope in Finland and UMK has delivered a series of cracking songs in Finnish. But unlike you said, the Windows95man's win was down to the audience showingng a middle finger to the 'establishment' and voting for FUN instead of worthy Paskana that was the jury winners and expected one as well. Paskana may have done well!
🇸🇪 🇮🇹 🇺🇦 will do well. 🇩🇪 🇳🇴 🇫🇮 🇳🇱 🇬🇧 🇮🇪 want to do well. But all these countries have won not so long ago compared to 🇫🇷 (47 years) and 🇪🇸 (55 years), these 2 are trying and waiting since so long time 😭 so it's largely time, and 🇲🇹 🇨🇾 🇮🇸 🇭🇷 🇱🇹 🇸🇮 waited for their first win the most so far, so my wish for 2025 is to see one of them 🇪🇸 🇫🇷 🇲🇹 🇱🇹 🇨🇾 🇮🇸 🇭🇷 🇸🇮 winning.
@@diekommentarekommentiererin Actually after having check, Malta entered the contest in 1971, Cyprus in 1981, Iceland in 1986, Croatia, Lithuania and Slovenia in 1993. So Malta remains the one with the most years without victory, 53 years, but you're right I forgot to mention Cyprus, 43 years, Iceland, 38 years and Slovenia, 31 years.
The winner will be whoever the jury winner wants it to be...unless the televoters landslide a good entry for non-political reasons somehow but I can't see this. Whilst I wouldn't say they're gonna win, I'd say the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Spain, Latvia, Montenegro and Estonia all have chances of doing better than normal, especially the latter if Estonia picks Tommy Cash! A lot of changes to NFs and song selections that could benefit those countries.
I've a feeling that if the 2025 winner is another case of the jury 'overriding' the public (not that I see if that way myself) the EBU might be forced to address the issue and change something. I do wonder though whether the last couple of years haven't at least partly been a result of making the semis televote-only, since you could argue - in theory - that fewer entries make it to the final which the juries might otherwise vote for, thereby concentrating their votes around fewer entries and leading to bigger jury winners. We haven't had enough of a sample to be able to demonstrate that with any statistical confidence, of course, and the [jury] winners we got in 2023 and 2024 were fairly obvious ones. But yeah, the mere optics of the jury prevailing over the televoters again could see the EBU doing something about the 'problem'.
so I'm gonna predict countries I think could win in the next few years (so 2025-30 range) since who knows what'll happen next May lmao. Ukraine, Sweden, and Italy are my "auto qualifiers" since I have them on a high pedestal lol. Armenia - they've been on a solid streak since 2022 and them announcing participation and bringing back their NF gives me hope they can finally do it soon. We'll see how the NF goes but still. Finland - aside from Sweden they're the Nordic country I see as most likely to win again very soon. UMK is amazing, they've been on a good path since 2021, and I think they have unfinished business from 2023. France - I'm a tiny bit skeptical here (mostly because sometimes they'll get winner hype but it doesn't materialize) but ultimately they have the tools to pull it off Lithuania - their qualification streak since 2021 (i think they've would've easily qualified in 2020) is impressive and they're not the same country they were before The Roop imo. Yeah they tend to get midtable results and need to pack more of a punch but I believe they can pull it off. Luxembourg - obviously we'll see what they do for 2025 but the 2024 nf gave off the vibe that they wanna host very soon. Netherlands - they clearly wanna do a comeback story arc and a fire has been lit under them (already confirming participation for 2026 is insane lmao) Portugal - they've (mostly) been on a hot streak since 2017 and could do it again. I think ultimately they need a song that's both jury and televote friendly but considering how strong FDC has been and their Eurovision results aren't too shabby I won't rule them out. Serbia - yeah they might be kinda inconsistent in terms of results but PZE is a strong NF (and my personal favorite) and the lowest result they've ever gotten is NQing at 11th place a couple times. The right song and artist may come sooner rather than later and they may pull it off. Switzerland - they select their songs with care and their approach since 2019 has worked very well for them. Idk if it'll happen again so soon but they're starting to join the ranks of Sweden/Ukraine/Italy in my eyes Countries I want to put in the above list but won't atm for some reasons Belgium - mostly because they're inconsistent due to 2 different broadcasters with different approaches switching off every year. If I placed a bet on which broadcaster could pull out a win it would be the Flemish one. Croatia - ultimately I need to see what they do for 2025. After Baby Lasagna's success I can see solid artists who didn't think much of Dora and Eurovision give it a go. I don't know nor really think they'll win 2025 per se but if they can comfortably qualify and at least get around 15th-17th place they may become one to watch. Estonia - this is mostly because Tommy Cash seems to be the one to beat with Eesti Laul since he's probably one of the biggest acts in Estonia. His music is in the same vain as Käärijä and Joost (arguably way more vulgar lmao) so if he did go to Eurovision and with a good song I could see him as a contender. Obviously we need to hear the songs first and Eesti Laul kinda struggles with picking songs that scream Eurovision winner so we'll see. Germany - I could see them being a dark horse for "big 5 country that isn't Italy that wins next". We'll see how things go with Stefan Raab running the ship and the new approach to the NF. Ireland - this just depends on how they approach 2025, similar to Croatia. Norway - I have hope for them but after their most recent result I can see them playing it safe and sending generic scandipop and not taking big risks. We'll see what happens, but I am interested in the new NF format. And then there's always the possibility a country that normally doesn't get great results sneaks up on us (ie Latvia, Georgia, Moldova, Albania, Slovenia, etc)
Based on junior Eurovision we won't have a live cross to hear 'good to go' but just a message on the screen. Martin osterdahl should keep out of sight next year..
I can't wait for Dora in February to hear the songs of the artists who applied, I hope they don't disappoint like Baby Lasagna didn't disappoint us this year.
My prediction excluding the big 3: 1. Estonia( expecting them to pick tommy cash) 2. Germany ( a lot of submissons) 3. France ( simular trajectory as Switzerland) 4. Finland ( a great national selection) 5. Belgium ( if they learn how to stage)
I don't think Norway wants to win anymore. NRK is cutting their budget, and there is no clear vision when the system is changing every year. It is also harder to get artists to participate due to the war
Heyyyy happy you are back 😀Very interesting your analysis. I agree there are new great opportunities for some countries. For my country Belgium it's always a surprise haha, a good or bad one 😉I am happy that the Netherlands will be back. Not with Joost Klein again, there was a lot of speculation about that, but he has denied it. I hope the best for Germany as well, a new start. Finally Slimane is in trouble these days, but that's another story....
I don't know if my country will succeed this year like we usually do, because we changed the head of Vidbir. I don't particularly trust Tina's judgment, but we still have a lot of people gunning for the prestige and exposure, so I remain cautiously hopeful. I want to see Germany do better. I want Ireland to continue their weird streak. Croatia too.
If you look to previous editions… countries do many years so well before winning the contest. Like Switzerland and Italy. I’m putting my guess on France this year.
I always want one of two things: a new winner (I.e. 🇭🇷🇨🇾🇨🇿🇦🇲🇱🇹🇮🇸, etc) or someone who hasn’t won for a long time (🇪🇸🇫🇷etc.). I’m also Australian and have accepted that we’re not going to win any time soon unless we get a Dami Im like performance.
I'm always relying more on emotions and not so much on objective analysis by predicting the next winner 😊. I hope that it will be a country who hasn't won before or has won decades ago... It would be just so beautiful, like with Switzerland this year. I cross my fingers for Lithuania and Iceland because I still think that one of them lost their first victory to covid in 2020. Also, I'm quite thrilled because my country has been mentioned as a potential winner again after many years, only because of Tommy Cash ofc. I haven't been his biggest fan tbh but I hope that he really has a good song for Eesti Laul.
Hello! I am early...and as an ESC fan from Croatia....I hope we will not disappoint Europe with ballads again....cause I LOVED LET3 and ESPECIALLY BABY LASAGNA...SO I HOPE MORE CROATIANS WHO SING IN THAT SONG STYLE....BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO REALISE EUROVISION ISNT BALLADS ANYMORE BUT A MIX OF STYLES AND ENERGY
@ thanks…I think there is a chance that we could do good 2025 too considering 221 acts signed up for Dora. And I am on the side of 🇺🇦 in the ESC and war too
Nije u baladi problem nego u pjesmi, francuska je imala baladu pa je covjek razvalio, nas problem je sto nasi napisu pjesmu da bi dosli na doru i promovirali se a ne da bi pobjedili na eurosongu
Norway, Estonia, Portugal, Italy and The Netherlands have already all won since the beginning of this century, so yeah let's Croatia, France or Lithuania win this 😉
Here are some predictions I have (I am not saying these to be offensive towards any country, they are not based on anything aside from my intuitions, and small patterns I recognise from previous years): 1) Spain is either going to win (which is more likely) or come last in the GF. 2) Germany is going to get a top 10 result. 3) Serbia is going to get another top 5 result, like in 2022. 4) Croatia will not even qualify. 5) Latvia will go back to their NQ streak. 6) Montenegro is going to qualify and not going to get bottom 3 in the GF. But won't end up on the left side of the scoreboard, too. 7) Ireland will qualify but will get bottom 5 in the GF. 8) Lithuania will get their best result ever.
France or Spain will win, I hope 🙏 If not, it would also be cool to see Croatia or Montenegro win. As much as I love Swedish and Ukrainian entries, these guys have had their fair share of victories this century)
I don't know what impact this will have on the French delegation and their chances of getting a good song this year, but there are a lot of articles coming out at the moment about alleged sexual harassment and assault by Slimane. "Le Parisien" (newspaper) also reports that some of the allegations were made just a few months before Eurovision (january), and that the French delegation sought to protect Slimane from journalists' questions on the subject.
My Top 15 Most Likely to Win: 1. Netherlands - they have the winning narrative press-wise and Claude is a phenomenal vocalist despite being so young 2. Greece - Greece is trending upward stats-wise and has had one of the biggest improvement rates post-pandemic with 3/4 strong years. Greece Decides could allow multiple talented artists to get to compete, increasing the odds the winning track with the right formula will be there this iteration 3. France - they have been extremely consistent. France will win soon. It is just a matter of when. 4. Finland - the biggest improvement rate between pre and post-pandemic award goes to Finland. Usually it takes a couple years for big artists to be willing to take a shot at ESC after a big success story like Kaarija, so maybe a really talented artist will step up this time. 5. Italy - been 4 years. Sweden won after 3 years in the 2010s. Italy could do it here. 6. Norway - 2 top 10 finishes in the last 4 years. The national final was really good last year. Lots of artists with verve and ambition. 7. Ukraine - perennial powerhouse 8. Lithuania - trending upward stats-wise 9. Croatia - lots of buzz was generated last year. 10. Armenia - trending upward 11. Portugal - trending upward 12. Serbia - trending upward 13. Sweden - trending downward but it is Sweden. They find a way even when they do not deserve top 20 sometimes 14. Latvia (“Ligo” might be a dark horse if they get it right with insanely good staging) 15. Israel - I hope not, but it is sadly a possibility
I’ve noticed that if either Sweden or Ukraine win the other will win afterwards like in 2015 when Sweden won Ukraine won in 2016. When Ukraine won in 2022 Sweden won in 2023. 😊
This is going to sound weird but every year I write down all the counties in a random order on a piece of paper and close my eyes a just point to one, my pick never comes true but its just for fun. I did this a month ago the winner was Austria. So I just happened to find this same piece of paper tucked up in a book the other week and just smiled at the silly idea. I just decided to cut out all the names and rolled each up into a tiny ball and mixed them up and randomly picked one . guess who i pick? Austria. 🤣I think the universe is trying to tell me something.
@@TheManInBlueFlamesnot the right winners 😂 I only did it last year and the year before. I think but I can't remember who I picked all I know is they didn't win or I would remember them.
ngl i wish Ayliva represented Germany 🇩🇪 someday, imo her artistic glow up is amazing also i feel like Belgium 🇧🇪 could potentially get a really solid result with Mentissa since she’s gained some success in France and released a viral song “Et Bam”, waiting for her Eurosong entry tho
I think if Ukraine will win this year it will be the most appreciated trophy to all Ukrainian from all European. And I can not wait to see what they will bring this year.🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
In your very very very good way way way early prediction, I would add Belgium. If Mentissa win the selections, she will be a huge contender for the win, just based on her live performances ! Thanks for your videos !
As a Dutch ESC fan, I am a bit disappointed that we didn't keep our stand and wave participation this year to show EBU that they went WAY too far in their megalomaniac behavior. Apparently, EBU ate humble pie and made strong reformations which convinced us to enter. Lets hope this is true. Also, Ukraine does so incredbily well because everyone wants them too. Without the war they would not be so high on the rankings every year. No hate, I am 100% with Ukraine.
Euro 2004 winners Greece - ESC Winner 2005 Greece Euro 2016 winners Portugal - ESC Winner 2017 Portugal Euro 2020 winners Italy - ESC Winner 2021 Italy So since Spain won Euro 2024, it's only logic they win in 2025. However, they won Euro 2008 and 2012 and didn't win the Eurovision next year, so maybe they are just cursed.
My personal opinion for most likely to least likely: 1. France 2. Ukraine 3. Israel 4. The Netherlands 5. Finland 6. Sweden 7. Lithuania 8. Italy 9. Norway 10. Portugal 11. Greece 12. Spain 13. Switzerland 14. Armenia 15. Iceland 16. Serbia 17. Estonia 18. Belgium 19. Czech Republic 20. Austria 21. Croatia 22. Cyprus 23. Australia 24. Moldova 25. Albania 26. Poland 27. Luxembourg 28. United Kingdom 29. Georgia 30. Ireland 31. Slovenia 32. Denmark 33. Azerbaijan 34. Latvia 35. Germany 36. Malta 37. San Marino 38. Montenegro
France Ukraine Ireland Norway Iceland Lithuania = my quick predictions during your intro. Awww you mentioned Finland :') I hope we send something great! I'd really love to send a Finnish ballad, check out Jenni Vartiainen - Missä muruseni on. I'd like to send a song like this, she uses the Finnish language beautifully. Always hard to know how someone else "hears our language". If someone checks the song out, let me know what you think of the language. The lyrics are about missing the one she loves, she asks the wind to blow its way to them and play with their hair and tell them she loves them. Or I'd like to send something of the beautiful metal genre, like Nightwish, Apocalyptica, Sonata Arctica or Sturm und Drang.
Earlier this year, in around february, I said jokingly in a "Early predictions video for Junior Eurovision 2024" that Portugal would win the televote but lose to the jury winner and It actually happened. So, I predict that Iceland will send the winning song for Eurovision 2025!
I think a lot of people especially in conservative circles will flock to support her, so it will actually help her. People wont know of her views on trans people at Eurovision.
@@SofiaMelander Yes it does, because it's a snide and disingenuous way of undermining and invalidating trans people's identity. It's like someone saying, "I don't have anything against gays, but it's Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve."
Totally aligned with you on the gimmicky aspect of Norway which mKes them fare well but not a serious contender for the win. Finland is largely following that model too. Out of the countries that could win and you did not mention or only quickly mention could be Serbia (never gimmicky, always with some flair, something unique), Lithuania, Iceland would want it so bad... And why not Greece, though they need to have a perfect execution. And finally Armenia who have had great results at JESC, bring interesting songs in different genres and have enough folk personality to make it unique.
Serbia has participated only since 2007, only 17 times, and has already won once. I mean everybody deserves to win but some countries more than the others imo mainly the countries waiting since 40/50 years. Greece and Serbia have won 18 and 17 years ago, it's very short in Eurovision time.
For me: If it is a Nordic country it has to be 🇮🇸 If it is a Balkans country it has to be 🇭🇷 If it is a Big 5 country it has to be 🇫🇷 If it is a Baltic country it has to be 🇱🇹 If it is a small country it has to be 🇲🇹 If it is an eastern country it has to be 🇨🇿
As an Australian, I think Armenia should be a Potential and I think if Portugal gets an Honourable Mention for Coming 2nd in Junior Eurovision then I think Georgia needs an Honourable Mention for winning Junior Eurovision. This might be bias of me But could Australia get an Honorable Mention because of the fact that is our 10th Participation and there might be a storyline about that. I think Israel needs a mention (I'll let you decide whether its Honourable or not) however I dont think they will win I think no matter what they send even if they send Paint Drying for 3 minutes they will get a similar result to last year (maybe thats a bit extreme but the Political Nature of the Situation means People will go out of there way to make them win or lose depending on there political stance) I do think Croatia should get an Honourable mention for coming 2nd However the situation last year I think Is Corruption. There is no way you put clearly the best song you've received (unless its not and there is a better song which was lower on the reserve list or worse not even on it) on the Reserve without Corruption. Croatia can go on the Main list once its corruption is fixed.
Nice video, I think the ones that have the highest possibilities are the following: Ukraine 🇺🇦: They just know how to choose great songs and performances. They also seem to know how to create perfect stagings. The fact that they have consistently been a power house in the contest for a long time and also the big diaspora votes (which really help when it comes to televote) lead me to think that they will most likely be close to winning again. Netherlands 🇳🇱: basically as you said, I think after the problems they had last year they will probably come back aiming for revenge with a quality entry. They have also been consistently good at the contest in the last 10 years, excepting for a few times here and there. Also Joost is a superstar and all of the things that happened in 2024 might lead some artists to present an entry. France 🇫🇷: they just seem to know the formula. They have been trying to achieve good results since 2016 and they have consistently been good at the contest (not necessarily with the results but they send quality performances almost every year). They have come top 5 twice since 2021 and I really believe they are aiming for that win. If it isn’t in 2025 I’m sure they will win before 2030. Finland 🇫🇮: their situation is very similar to France’s. They have been consistently good since 2021 (excepting for 2024 and maybe 2022) and they are slowly becoming a powerhouse. Even if they sometimes don’t pick the right song, their national selection is one of the best and has an overall good quality. Spain 🇪🇸: I think this might be a bit controversial, but I think they are slowly starting to get Eurovision right since Benidorm Fest. Even if they got mediocre results apart from Chanel in 2022, I think Eaea was a stunning act and deserved much better, and Zorra was a quality act overall but I feel it was just made for the Spanish. I’ve looked at the contestants this year and I feel that the quality of Benidorm Fest will be much higher than last year. I think that Spain is slowly getting away from always finishing in the bottom positions and they should be taken into account. I think their situation is similar to Finland’s. Israel 🇮🇱: Yes, I would not like this at all and I think they should be banned from the contest. But, since they are part of the contest, I think that sadly something similar to what happened in 2024 could occur again. They could smash the televote and maybe the juries don’t bury them like in 2024 if the political situation is improved. I think this is not that likely but it could definitely happen in the worst scenario. Other options I find less likely and why: Italy 🇮🇹 (they don’t usually know how to stage), Sweden 🇸🇪 (I think it’s harder to win Melfest than Eurovision), Iceland 🇮🇸 (maybe they pick Bashar and something similar to Ukraine 2022 happens), Ireland 🇮🇪 or UK 🇬🇧 (if they finally take it seriously, they have a great industry) and Greece 🇬🇷 (I think they’re slowly starting to gain momentum since Amanda Tenfjord in 2022).
![I.N "HALLUCINATION" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/n5B5q1Hwt_U/mqdefault.jpg)
I love way too early predictions
Hehe ;)
I was delighted when I saw your videos starting off the Eurovision season. You are my favorite channel to watch. In fact, you have become my only channel to watch. You are always kind and respectful, and you keep it light hearted and fun.
Love early predictions. I have a feeling that Finland 🇫🇮 and/ or at least one of the Baltic countries will come with a strong entry in 2025.
Omg you’re baaaack! I love to see your face in youtube recommendations! ❤️
The Netherlands did also announce that they will participate in 2026. Crazy that it was so uncertain if they would even participate in 2025 and now everything is suddenly fine again.
well, not suddenly. Only after the ebu has implemented a number of changes.
In 1989, in Switzerland, Croatia, which was part of Yugoslavia, won, they say that history repeats itself, so Croatia should win, who knows?😊
Good point 😅
No ganó Croacia. GANÓ Yugoslavia. Croacia todavía oficialmente no tiene ningún micrófono de cristal (victoria)
@@RjrjrRjrBut croatian band won!!! Also Croatia is first winner of Junior song contest in history!!!😜
Its also Croatias 30 year anniversary in Eurovision next year (2025) so it would be low-key iconic
They say that but also lightning never strikes in the same place twice! Which should we choose? 😂
This is what Eurovision should be. Always with early bird vibe
Hello !! Thank you for your video (you always brighten my day each time you publish one). I do not know and i cannot even try to predict who will win BUT i wanna share who I WANT to win : Lithuania, Cyprus, Iceland, Czechia. They're always consistent and i love this countries so much, in addition i would love to see a first win. (Estonia or Latvia win would be amazing too)
Great choices for a win yes
I hope we have a country that's never won before
I would honestly love to see Slovenia or maybe Iceland to win.
Estonia!
if Tommy Cash wins Eesti Laul, as I suspect he will, then he could well emulate Käärijä and Baby Lasagna by finishing a gallant second.
It would certainly give Estonia a much needed boost when they were doing badly with the televoters. He needs to have a song that has televoter AND jury appeal to do well. The juries might tank him since his songs are normally quite 'fun'
@@TheManInBlueFlames Baby Lasagna and Kaarja weren't just fun. They were meaningful. I don't know if Tommy Cash can pull this off.
Can he pull of a banger performance. Or will it be like Estonia 2024.
@@Villll.lAs an Estonian, 2024 was a banger for me
Mines are either France, Finland and Croatia.
I know Finland has been quite unstable, but they could get a win this or next year.
I have a feeling that France might surprise us and keep a consistent streak of great results and eventually winning.
Croatia might keep the momentum and send another outstanding song and winning.
I was thinking that this was way, way, way too early for a prediction video, but it actually made sense. It was nice to see Finland there. There is this eternal hope in Finland and UMK has delivered a series of cracking songs in Finnish. But unlike you said, the Windows95man's win was down to the audience showingng a middle finger to the 'establishment' and voting for FUN instead of worthy Paskana that was the jury winners and expected one as well. Paskana may have done well!
ITS THAT TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN!!
🇸🇪 🇮🇹 🇺🇦 will do well.
🇩🇪 🇳🇴 🇫🇮 🇳🇱 🇬🇧 🇮🇪 want to do well.
But all these countries have won not so long ago compared to 🇫🇷 (47 years) and 🇪🇸 (55 years), these 2 are trying and waiting since so long time 😭 so it's largely time, and 🇲🇹 🇨🇾 🇮🇸 🇭🇷 🇱🇹 🇸🇮 waited for their first win the most so far, so my wish for 2025 is to see one of them 🇪🇸 🇫🇷 🇲🇹 🇱🇹 🇨🇾 🇮🇸 🇭🇷 🇸🇮 winning.
Actually, Cyprus is the country with the longest wait. But tbh, France and Spain are long overdue.
@@diekommentarekommentiererin
Actually after having check, Malta entered the contest in 1971, Cyprus in 1981, Iceland in 1986, Croatia, Lithuania and Slovenia in 1993. So Malta remains the one with the most years without victory, 53 years, but you're right I forgot to mention Cyprus, 43 years, Iceland, 38 years and Slovenia, 31 years.
Reino Unido e Irlanda llevan casi 30 años sin ganar eh! (28 y 29 años)
@@RjrjrRjr ok but still not as much as those who are waiting for a first victory, and still not as much as Spain 55 years and France 47 years.
Ok it’s definitely time for Spain or France to take the contest back home 🇫🇷❤🇪🇸
Slo mo it's a Eurovision classic
@@jayadams6497well the overall performance yes but the song in itself...not really.
The winner will be whoever the jury winner wants it to be...unless the televoters landslide a good entry for non-political reasons somehow but I can't see this. Whilst I wouldn't say they're gonna win, I'd say the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Spain, Latvia, Montenegro and Estonia all have chances of doing better than normal, especially the latter if Estonia picks Tommy Cash! A lot of changes to NFs and song selections that could benefit those countries.
I've a feeling that if the 2025 winner is another case of the jury 'overriding' the public (not that I see if that way myself) the EBU might be forced to address the issue and change something.
I do wonder though whether the last couple of years haven't at least partly been a result of making the semis televote-only, since you could argue - in theory - that fewer entries make it to the final which the juries might otherwise vote for, thereby concentrating their votes around fewer entries and leading to bigger jury winners. We haven't had enough of a sample to be able to demonstrate that with any statistical confidence, of course, and the [jury] winners we got in 2023 and 2024 were fairly obvious ones.
But yeah, the mere optics of the jury prevailing over the televoters again could see the EBU doing something about the 'problem'.
so I'm gonna predict countries I think could win in the next few years (so 2025-30 range) since who knows what'll happen next May lmao. Ukraine, Sweden, and Italy are my "auto qualifiers" since I have them on a high pedestal lol.
Armenia - they've been on a solid streak since 2022 and them announcing participation and bringing back their NF gives me hope they can finally do it soon. We'll see how the NF goes but still.
Finland - aside from Sweden they're the Nordic country I see as most likely to win again very soon. UMK is amazing, they've been on a good path since 2021, and I think they have unfinished business from 2023.
France - I'm a tiny bit skeptical here (mostly because sometimes they'll get winner hype but it doesn't materialize) but ultimately they have the tools to pull it off
Lithuania - their qualification streak since 2021 (i think they've would've easily qualified in 2020) is impressive and they're not the same country they were before The Roop imo. Yeah they tend to get midtable results and need to pack more of a punch but I believe they can pull it off.
Luxembourg - obviously we'll see what they do for 2025 but the 2024 nf gave off the vibe that they wanna host very soon.
Netherlands - they clearly wanna do a comeback story arc and a fire has been lit under them (already confirming participation for 2026 is insane lmao)
Portugal - they've (mostly) been on a hot streak since 2017 and could do it again. I think ultimately they need a song that's both jury and televote friendly but considering how strong FDC has been and their Eurovision results aren't too shabby I won't rule them out.
Serbia - yeah they might be kinda inconsistent in terms of results but PZE is a strong NF (and my personal favorite) and the lowest result they've ever gotten is NQing at 11th place a couple times. The right song and artist may come sooner rather than later and they may pull it off.
Switzerland - they select their songs with care and their approach since 2019 has worked very well for them. Idk if it'll happen again so soon but they're starting to join the ranks of Sweden/Ukraine/Italy in my eyes
Countries I want to put in the above list but won't atm for some reasons
Belgium - mostly because they're inconsistent due to 2 different broadcasters with different approaches switching off every year. If I placed a bet on which broadcaster could pull out a win it would be the Flemish one.
Croatia - ultimately I need to see what they do for 2025. After Baby Lasagna's success I can see solid artists who didn't think much of Dora and Eurovision give it a go. I don't know nor really think they'll win 2025 per se but if they can comfortably qualify and at least get around 15th-17th place they may become one to watch.
Estonia - this is mostly because Tommy Cash seems to be the one to beat with Eesti Laul since he's probably one of the biggest acts in Estonia. His music is in the same vain as Käärijä and Joost (arguably way more vulgar lmao) so if he did go to Eurovision and with a good song I could see him as a contender. Obviously we need to hear the songs first and Eesti Laul kinda struggles with picking songs that scream Eurovision winner so we'll see.
Germany - I could see them being a dark horse for "big 5 country that isn't Italy that wins next". We'll see how things go with Stefan Raab running the ship and the new approach to the NF.
Ireland - this just depends on how they approach 2025, similar to Croatia.
Norway - I have hope for them but after their most recent result I can see them playing it safe and sending generic scandipop and not taking big risks. We'll see what happens, but I am interested in the new NF format.
And then there's always the possibility a country that normally doesn't get great results sneaks up on us (ie Latvia, Georgia, Moldova, Albania, Slovenia, etc)
It’s time for Croatia to winn!!!
Nice to see you back!
Hopefully a country, which has never won before, will win. I would love to see Germany, Estonia, Finland or Norway winning too though :)
I believe Tommy Cash for Estonia might be next years Käärijä and public vote winner 🇪🇪
For me the big question is not who will win but if all the problems and intensities of last year will be overcomed...
Based on junior Eurovision we won't have a live cross to hear 'good to go' but just a message on the screen. Martin osterdahl should keep out of sight next year..
I can't wait for Dora in February to hear the songs of the artists who applied, I hope they don't disappoint like Baby Lasagna didn't disappoint us this year.
My prediction excluding the big 3:
1. Estonia( expecting them to pick tommy cash)
2. Germany ( a lot of submissons)
3. France ( simular trajectory as Switzerland)
4. Finland ( a great national selection)
5. Belgium ( if they learn how to stage)
I don't think Norway wants to win anymore. NRK is cutting their budget, and there is no clear vision when the system is changing every year. It is also harder to get artists to participate due to the war
Heyyyy happy you are back 😀Very interesting your analysis. I agree there are new great opportunities for some countries. For my country Belgium it's always a surprise haha, a good or bad one 😉I am happy that the Netherlands will be back. Not with Joost Klein again, there was a lot of speculation about that, but he has denied it. I hope the best for Germany as well, a new start. Finally Slimane is in trouble these days, but that's another story....
I would love to see so many countries win, but especially iceland or estonia😍 ooor, as a finnish, finland of course😂
I don't know if my country will succeed this year like we usually do, because we changed the head of Vidbir. I don't particularly trust Tina's judgment, but we still have a lot of people gunning for the prestige and exposure, so I remain cautiously hopeful.
I want to see Germany do better. I want Ireland to continue their weird streak. Croatia too.
You guys will do very well trust me
If I were to put any money on anyone right now, it would be Estonia, since it seems like they will carry the torch from Kaarja and Joost this year
If you look to previous editions… countries do many years so well before winning the contest.
Like Switzerland and Italy.
I’m putting my guess on France this year.
I always want one of two things: a new winner (I.e. 🇭🇷🇨🇾🇨🇿🇦🇲🇱🇹🇮🇸, etc) or someone who hasn’t won for a long time (🇪🇸🇫🇷etc.). I’m also Australian and have accepted that we’re not going to win any time soon unless we get a Dami Im like performance.
I'm always relying more on emotions and not so much on objective analysis by predicting the next winner 😊. I hope that it will be a country who hasn't won before or has won decades ago... It would be just so beautiful, like with Switzerland this year. I cross my fingers for Lithuania and Iceland because I still think that one of them lost their first victory to covid in 2020. Also, I'm quite thrilled because my country has been mentioned as a potential winner again after many years, only because of Tommy Cash ofc. I haven't been his biggest fan tbh but I hope that he really has a good song for Eesti Laul.
Hello! I am early...and as an ESC fan from Croatia....I hope we will not disappoint Europe with ballads again....cause I LOVED LET3 and ESPECIALLY BABY LASAGNA...SO I HOPE MORE CROATIANS WHO SING IN THAT SONG STYLE....BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO REALISE EUROVISION ISNT BALLADS ANYMORE BUT A MIX OF STYLES AND ENERGY
Let3 and Baby Lasagna were two successes in a row. You're on the right track. From Ukraine, with love.
@ thanks…I think there is a chance that we could do good 2025 too considering 221 acts signed up for Dora. And I am on the side of 🇺🇦 in the ESC and war too
Nije u baladi problem nego u pjesmi, francuska je imala baladu pa je covjek razvalio, nas problem je sto nasi napisu pjesmu da bi dosli na doru i promovirali se a ne da bi pobjedili na eurosongu
Im still waiting for that icelandic victory but sadly not in a million years 😢
My heart says: Lithuania, Norway, Estonia, Portugal.
My brain says: France, Italy, maybe Croatia or The Netherlands.
Norway, Estonia, Portugal, Italy and The Netherlands have already all won since the beginning of this century, so yeah let's Croatia, France or Lithuania win this 😉
This is my first Eurovision video for next year's competition and it won't be my last 🎉
Here are some predictions I have (I am not saying these to be offensive towards any country, they are not based on anything aside from my intuitions, and small patterns I recognise from previous years):
1) Spain is either going to win (which is more likely) or come last in the GF.
2) Germany is going to get a top 10 result.
3) Serbia is going to get another top 5 result, like in 2022.
4) Croatia will not even qualify.
5) Latvia will go back to their NQ streak.
6) Montenegro is going to qualify and not going to get bottom 3 in the GF. But won't end up on the left side of the scoreboard, too.
7) Ireland will qualify but will get bottom 5 in the GF.
8) Lithuania will get their best result ever.
New Nostradamus speak the💩
Who do you think will win in 2025?
Spain
Portugal with Henka please!! 🙏
Probably Italy,Ukraine or Sweden...Hopefully Poland.
Armenia
Georgia 🇬🇪
France or Spain will win, I hope 🙏 If not, it would also be cool to see Croatia or Montenegro win. As much as I love Swedish and Ukrainian entries, these guys have had their fair share of victories this century)
you have to say all participant countries, because at this moment everybody could bring the best song ever
I don't know what impact this will have on the French delegation and their chances of getting a good song this year, but there are a lot of articles coming out at the moment about alleged sexual harassment and assault by Slimane. "Le Parisien" (newspaper) also reports that some of the allegations were made just a few months before Eurovision (january), and that the French delegation sought to protect Slimane from journalists' questions on the subject.
My Top 15 Most Likely to Win:
1. Netherlands - they have the winning narrative press-wise and Claude is a phenomenal vocalist despite being so young
2. Greece - Greece is trending upward stats-wise and has had one of the biggest improvement rates post-pandemic with 3/4 strong years. Greece Decides could allow multiple talented artists to get to compete, increasing the odds the winning track with the right formula will be there this iteration
3. France - they have been extremely consistent. France will win soon. It is just a matter of when.
4. Finland - the biggest improvement rate between pre and post-pandemic award goes to Finland. Usually it takes a couple years for big artists to be willing to take a shot at ESC after a big success story like Kaarija, so maybe a really talented artist will step up this time.
5. Italy - been 4 years. Sweden won after 3 years in the 2010s. Italy could do it here.
6. Norway - 2 top 10 finishes in the last 4 years. The national final was really good last year. Lots of artists with verve and ambition.
7. Ukraine - perennial powerhouse
8. Lithuania - trending upward stats-wise
9. Croatia - lots of buzz was generated last year.
10. Armenia - trending upward
11. Portugal - trending upward
12. Serbia - trending upward
13. Sweden - trending downward but it is Sweden. They find a way even when they do not deserve top 20 sometimes
14. Latvia (“Ligo” might be a dark horse if they get it right with insanely good staging)
15. Israel - I hope not, but it is sadly a possibility
I’ve noticed that if either Sweden or Ukraine win the other will win afterwards like in 2015 when Sweden won Ukraine won in 2016. When Ukraine won in 2022 Sweden won in 2023. 😊
Also 99/00, 2012/13 with Sweden /Denmark.
l saw dream that Netherlands won Eurovision 2025
I had a dream that Raiven would represent Slovenia again xD
Imagine Germany would win again with Stefan Raab ❤️🔥🕺🏼
Expect to see a Top 10 for Germany. Would love to see a Ben Dolic 2020 type entry.
Para mí el mejor y el más fuerte de los países en Eurovisión es Ucrania! Siempre está entre los 5 mejores, cada año. Después irían Suecia e Italia
This is going to sound weird but every year I write down all the counties in a random order on a piece of paper and close my eyes a just point to one, my pick never comes true but its just for fun. I did this a month ago the winner was Austria. So I just happened to find this same piece of paper tucked up in a book the other week and just smiled at the silly idea. I just decided to cut out all the names and rolled each up into a tiny ball and mixed them up and randomly picked one . guess who i pick? Austria. 🤣I think the universe is trying to tell me something.
What did you get in the last five years?
@@TheManInBlueFlamesnot the right winners 😂 I only did it last year and the year before. I think but I can't remember who I picked all I know is they didn't win or I would remember them.
🇪🇪 Estonia is my too early winner prediction. 🇪🇪
ngl i wish Ayliva represented Germany 🇩🇪 someday, imo her artistic glow up is amazing
also i feel like Belgium 🇧🇪 could potentially get a really solid result with Mentissa since she’s gained some success in France and released a viral song “Et Bam”, waiting for her Eurosong entry tho
Twitter got rather excited by Mentissa. I immediately checked her out on YT and Et Bam was very good.
I think if Ukraine will win this year it will be the most appreciated trophy to all Ukrainian from all European. And I can not wait to see what they will bring this year.🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Este año tengo buenas sensaciones con Alemania, Bélgica, España , Grecia
I think that The Netherlands got there Revence , Anouk send a Killer Song , so maybe they send her ❤
Please no, her music is dated😢
Well no... not a good idea.
I think its going to be Armenia, Georgia, Estonia, or Latvia. I have nothing to base this on, I just have the vibe.
In your very very very good way way way early prediction, I would add Belgium. If Mentissa win the selections, she will be a huge contender for the win, just based on her live performances !
Thanks for your videos !
time for San Marino or Belgium to win
As a Dutch ESC fan, I am a bit disappointed that we didn't keep our stand and wave participation this year to show EBU that they went WAY too far in their megalomaniac behavior. Apparently, EBU ate humble pie and made strong reformations which convinced us to enter. Lets hope this is true.
Also, Ukraine does so incredbily well because everyone wants them too. Without the war they would not be so high on the rankings every year. No hate, I am 100% with Ukraine.
Euro 2004 winners Greece - ESC Winner 2005 Greece
Euro 2016 winners Portugal - ESC Winner 2017 Portugal
Euro 2020 winners Italy - ESC Winner 2021 Italy
So since Spain won Euro 2024, it's only logic they win in 2025. However, they won Euro 2008 and 2012 and didn't win the Eurovision next year, so maybe they are just cursed.
San Marino is going to make it
Do you think we will reach 40
My personal opinion for most likely to least likely:
1. France
2. Ukraine
3. Israel
4. The Netherlands
5. Finland
6. Sweden
7. Lithuania
8. Italy
9. Norway
10. Portugal
11. Greece
12. Spain
13. Switzerland
14. Armenia
15. Iceland
16. Serbia
17. Estonia
18. Belgium
19. Czech Republic
20. Austria
21. Croatia
22. Cyprus
23. Australia
24. Moldova
25. Albania
26. Poland
27. Luxembourg
28. United Kingdom
29. Georgia
30. Ireland
31. Slovenia
32. Denmark
33. Azerbaijan
34. Latvia
35. Germany
36. Malta
37. San Marino
38. Montenegro
I think Ireland,Albania,Ukraine,Italy and Spain will be around the top 5 (ofc If Albania selects Elvana Gjata)
I thought Cyprus, Iceland or Malta would win by 2030 but I am running out of time
I have two early predictions Shepherd will represent Australia and the girl group Remember Monday will represent the UK.
Could Sweden’s winning 2015 combination of Måns Zelmerlöw and creative director Fredrik “Benke” Rydman do it again in 2025?
Wird Zeit, dass Australien zum ersten Mal gewinnt.
Danke. I agree, all the way from Australia
I would love for Netherlands to win, and then when they host next year, have an interval performance by Joost Klein!
I think small country wins eurovision this year
Have no confidence in 🇸🇪 to win in upcoming years, not since they were part of the DQ...
Just watch it be some random country like Albania that ends up winning.
That would be so cool
Elvana might be the only chance for Albania to win Eurovision. We'll have to hear the song first ofc, but I trust she'll send smth as good as Me Tana
Pobjedit ce ziri kao i 2024
France Ukraine Ireland Norway Iceland Lithuania = my quick predictions during your intro.
Awww you mentioned Finland :')
I hope we send something great!
I'd really love to send a Finnish ballad, check out Jenni Vartiainen - Missä muruseni on.
I'd like to send a song like this, she uses the Finnish language beautifully.
Always hard to know how someone else "hears our language". If someone checks the song out, let me know what you think of the language.
The lyrics are about missing the one she loves, she asks the wind to blow its way to them and play with their hair and tell them she loves them.
Or I'd like to send something of the beautiful metal genre, like Nightwish, Apocalyptica, Sonata Arctica or Sturm und Drang.
A random guess: Cyprus will win
Earlier this year, in around february, I said jokingly in a "Early predictions video for Junior Eurovision 2024" that Portugal would win the televote but lose to the jury winner and It actually happened. So, I predict that Iceland will send the winning song for Eurovision 2025!
Serbia, Croatia or Spain
I have no confidence in the BBC for 2025
Just something I want to say, if Anouk gets chosen there will be a public outrage here.
Why?
@ a post she did, everyone pretty much doesn’t like her anymore, or people are already over that, but it doesn’t look like that
I think a lot of people especially in conservative circles will flock to support her, so it will actually help her. People wont know of her views on trans people at Eurovision.
@@TheManInBlueFlamespointing out biological facts does not make you anti-trans.
@@SofiaMelander Yes it does, because it's a snide and disingenuous way of undermining and invalidating trans people's identity. It's like someone saying, "I don't have anything against gays, but it's Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve."
Uk must send dear alice or any best singer to win for uk for the first time since 1997, every uk send very bad singer
2022 does not count?
France🏆
Totally aligned with you on the gimmicky aspect of Norway which mKes them fare well but not a serious contender for the win. Finland is largely following that model too.
Out of the countries that could win and you did not mention or only quickly mention could be Serbia (never gimmicky, always with some flair, something unique), Lithuania, Iceland would want it so bad... And why not Greece, though they need to have a perfect execution. And finally Armenia who have had great results at JESC, bring interesting songs in different genres and have enough folk personality to make it unique.
Not talking about switzerland is insane...
In the last 5 years they have not missed a final and had 3 top 5 finishes, including a win.
I just thought about the "host curse" but yeah they might be in the mix too
I think UK will win 😂
Well, i thought ... let's ask chatgpt...
1) Sweden
2) Netherlands
3) Germany
4) Italy
5) UK
Soooooooooooo curious.
I did it too and Chatgpt can't answer so I wonder where you get this top 5 lol!
@@vicsymons1570 i used chatgpt4o
My heart is with Greece, I really want to see them win soon or maybe Serbia, they also deserve it :)
Serbia has participated only since 2007, only 17 times, and has already won once.
I mean everybody deserves to win but some countries more than the others imo mainly the countries waiting since 40/50 years. Greece and Serbia have won 18 and 17 years ago, it's very short in Eurovision time.
ISRAEL.
Need to do less esc 2025
For me:
If it is a Nordic country it has to be 🇮🇸
If it is a Balkans country it has to be 🇭🇷
If it is a Big 5 country it has to be 🇫🇷
If it is a Baltic country it has to be 🇱🇹
If it is a small country it has to be 🇲🇹
If it is an eastern country it has to be 🇨🇿
As an Australian, I think Armenia should be a Potential and I think if Portugal gets an Honourable Mention for Coming 2nd in Junior Eurovision then I think Georgia needs an Honourable Mention for winning Junior Eurovision. This might be bias of me But could Australia get an Honorable Mention because of the fact that is our 10th Participation and there might be a storyline about that. I think Israel needs a mention (I'll let you decide whether its Honourable or not) however I dont think they will win I think no matter what they send even if they send Paint Drying for 3 minutes they will get a similar result to last year (maybe thats a bit extreme but the Political Nature of the Situation means People will go out of there way to make them win or lose depending on there political stance) I do think Croatia should get an Honourable mention for coming 2nd However the situation last year I think Is Corruption. There is no way you put clearly the best song you've received (unless its not and there is a better song which was lower on the reserve list or worse not even on it) on the Reserve without Corruption. Croatia can go on the Main list once its corruption is fixed.
My early predictions
1. Lithuania 🇱🇹
2. Ukraine 🇺🇦
3. Netherlands 🇳🇱
4. Albania 🇦🇱
5. Italy 🇮🇹
6. Sweden 🇸🇪
7. Czechia 🇨🇿
8. Armenia 🇦🇲
9. Israel 🇮🇱
10. Portugal 🇵🇹
11. Norway 🇳🇴
12. France 🇫🇷
13. Spain 🇪🇸
14. Ireland 🇮🇪
15. Switzerland 🇨🇭
16. Georgia 🇬🇪
17. Croatia 🇭🇷
18. Moldova 🇲🇩
19. Slovenia 🇸🇮
20. Montenegro 🇲🇪
21. Greece 🇬🇷
22. Latvia 🇱🇻
23. Poland 🇵🇱
24. Germany 🇩🇪
25. Serbia 🇷🇸
26. United Kingdom 🇬🇧
You forgot one big 5 country
Australia?
Nice video, I think the ones that have the highest possibilities are the following:
Ukraine 🇺🇦: They just know how to choose great songs and performances. They also seem to know how to create perfect stagings. The fact that they have consistently been a power house in the contest for a long time and also the big diaspora votes (which really help when it comes to televote) lead me to think that they will most likely be close to winning again.
Netherlands 🇳🇱: basically as you said, I think after the problems they had last year they will probably come back aiming for revenge with a quality entry. They have also been consistently good at the contest in the last 10 years, excepting for a few times here and there. Also Joost is a superstar and all of the things that happened in 2024 might lead some artists to present an entry.
France 🇫🇷: they just seem to know the formula. They have been trying to achieve good results since 2016 and they have consistently been good at the contest (not necessarily with the results but they send quality performances almost every year). They have come top 5 twice since 2021 and I really believe they are aiming for that win. If it isn’t in 2025 I’m sure they will win before 2030.
Finland 🇫🇮: their situation is very similar to France’s. They have been consistently good since 2021 (excepting for 2024 and maybe 2022) and they are slowly becoming a powerhouse. Even if they sometimes don’t pick the right song, their national selection is one of the best and has an overall good quality.
Spain 🇪🇸: I think this might be a bit controversial, but I think they are slowly starting to get Eurovision right since Benidorm Fest. Even if they got mediocre results apart from Chanel in 2022, I think Eaea was a stunning act and deserved much better, and Zorra was a quality act overall but I feel it was just made for the Spanish. I’ve looked at the contestants this year and I feel that the quality of Benidorm Fest will be much higher than last year. I think that Spain is slowly getting away from always finishing in the bottom positions and they should be taken into account. I think their situation is similar to Finland’s.
Israel 🇮🇱: Yes, I would not like this at all and I think they should be banned from the contest. But, since they are part of the contest, I think that sadly something similar to what happened in 2024 could occur again. They could smash the televote and maybe the juries don’t bury them like in 2024 if the political situation is improved. I think this is not that likely but it could definitely happen in the worst scenario.
Other options I find less likely and why:
Italy 🇮🇹 (they don’t usually know how to stage), Sweden 🇸🇪 (I think it’s harder to win Melfest than Eurovision), Iceland 🇮🇸 (maybe they pick Bashar and something similar to Ukraine 2022 happens), Ireland 🇮🇪 or UK 🇬🇧 (if they finally take it seriously, they have a great industry) and Greece 🇬🇷 (I think they’re slowly starting to gain momentum since Amanda Tenfjord in 2022).