Kamala Harris Gains Ground Among Black Voters

Vice President Kamala Harris is experiencing growing support among Black voters as she campaigns for the Democratic presidential nomination. A series of recent polls highlights Harris’s increasing favorability within this crucial voting bloc, demonstrating a shift from the support previously held by President Joe Biden.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from August 23 to August 27, among 1,611 likely voters, found Harris leading by a significant margin of 55 points among Black voters, with 75% favoring her over 20% for her opponents. This is slightly lower than Biden's 58-point lead in a similar poll four years earlier but still represents a substantial majority.
An earlier Suffolk poll also showed that Harris reversed most of the gains former President Donald Trump had made among Black voters. The poll, conducted in Michigan and Pennsylvania - two key swing states - revealed that Harris's support among Black voters had grown considerably. In June, Biden had a 39-point lead in Michigan and a 45-point lead in Pennsylvania. However, by August, Harris was leading by 62 points in Michigan and 60 points in Pennsylvania.
Harris's recent gains reflect a broader trend in Black voter support for Democratic candidates. Historically, Democratic nominees have garnered strong backing from Black voters. In the 2020 election, Biden won 87% of the Black vote, while Trump received 12%. This was comparable to Hillary Clinton’s performance in 2016 and significantly lower than Barack Obama’s historic victories in 2008 and 2012, where he won 95% and 93% of Black voters, respectively.
Despite this progress, Harris faces unique challenges. Black male voters, a critical segment of the Democratic base, have shown some hesitancy in supporting her candidacy. A virtual fundraising call attended by over 40,000 Black men highlighted this issue. The call featured emotional appeals from prominent Black leaders, including Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, who urged Black men to stand behind Harris, countering the notion that supporting a Black woman reflects a lack of strength.
Historically, Black women candidates have faced skepticism from a portion of Black male voters. Shirley Chisholm, the first Black woman elected to Congress and a 1972 presidential candidate, encountered similar resistance. This dynamic remains relevant today, as seen in Stacey Abrams’s 2022 gubernatorial campaign in Georgia, where efforts were made to galvanize Black male voters.
Harris’s past in law enforcement and her perceived alignment with the Democratic establishment contribute to the challenges she faces. Polls have shown that Black voters, particularly Black men, feel increasingly disconnected from the Democratic Party, frustrated by perceived inaction on their political priorities.
Recent data suggests that Harris is beginning to consolidate support among Black voters. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in August found that 77% of Black voters would support or lean toward Harris if the 2024 election were held today, up from 64% before Biden's exit from the race. This surge reflects a growing consolidation of Black voter support that Harris will need to secure the Democratic nomination and, potentially, the presidency.
Demographic differences among Black voters also play a role in Harris's support. Older Black voters and those with college degrees show stronger backing for Harris, while younger voters and those without degrees display slightly less enthusiasm. However, overall, Harris's favorability ratings have increased across various demographics since May 2024.
Kamala Harris’s campaign represents a significant moment in American politics. As the first Black and Asian American woman to seek the Democratic presidential nomination, her success depends on her ability to galvanize the Black voter base, particularly Black men. While she has made considerable gains in recent months, her campaign will need to continue addressing underlying hesitations and build on the momentum to secure a broad coalition of support in the lead-up to the 2024 election.

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