Crypto Crash ☢ It's getting toxic...
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- Опубликовано: 7 июл 2024
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The strongblock comparison really hit me. I lost a lot of $$$ in it back then. Wish I’d done more contrarian research back then. There was simply no cautionary voices back then on my youtube radar. Lesson learned.
My thesis is pretty simple. People will buy bitcoin when it doesn't make sense to hold cash. Right now we see central banks started to print money. But at the same time, economies are failing and banks are going bust. They are all waiting for the last and most important one to cut rate. The feds. And the divergence of crypto as an asset is simply because crypto is on the higher risk curve. As things weaken, the liquidity will flow from the riskier to the less riskier. Next the stock market will show weakness. And then we'll see the rate cut. Followed by the parabolic move.
Fed cuts when economy is down the tubes - unemployment higher etc and no discretionary money to gamble on crypto, so no parabolic move then pal!
You can't cut rates until you control inflation. That's why when people kept bringing up rate cuts earlier this year I was laughing. There aren't going to be any rate cuts till 2025. The Fed would be insane to cut rates now. Printing money right now would implode the economy into an inflationary spiral...you guys got to dig in and be patient for a bit
@@vancecookcobaininflation has been in control pal
Its not about right or wrong, which most tubers keep harping upon. You just be you. I don't like everything you say (and have made myself known) but I very much respect you. I'm always neutral and watchful. When you announced you were selling everything and shorting, it was a bit of an eyeroll moment. Only time will tell who is right and who is wrong. I sold my BTC at the top (on a gut feeling) and kept my memes and alts which are doing well enough for me to see what happens. There are a lot of bear videos which get positive comments depends what frame of mind people are in. There will always be toxic comments, its youtube after all. I had a successful channel and it was always full of bots and toxic people. I paid no attention to the toxic because they thrive on attention. I always concentrated on the positive.
I have been in Bitcoin since 2017 and you can see my first comment on Gerhard…if I could be a RUclipsr I would do exactly what you are doing and saying (except I’m a bitcoin maximalist). For anyone who cares to listen to me this guy has been calling it right, he may be boring but he is more right than wrong, yes, maybe one video will be wrong bt on the whole only he, Mark Moss and Bitcoin University are worth watching, everyting else is entertainment and moonboy nonsense. Keep up the good work!
He's not boring. It is like saying drinking water is boring and yet is a fundamental part of maintaining physical life.
To me, the overhyping videos of some channels are boring.
Dam right on those other 2 youtubers also.
Question for you, post halving in the previous cycles, things seem quite similar, choppy with significant corrections, followed by an influx of liquidity and a bull run. Why would it be different this time?
Been watching this guy for a while and also been learning a lot from him. Not all Crypto RUclips influencer will be as honest as he is .Keep up the good work Bro👍
Gerhard. What data are you drawing from to arrive at this is the bear market conclusion? Bad sentiment? Etf flows?
Your not really talking about any conclusive data, its mainly just your personal opinion.
Onchain suggests this is not the cycle peak, its a buy the dip monent. And for those that cant see this, they may regret this later.
@bitcoinstrategy do you think we see over 60k or below 50 first?
thank you for sharing your data analytics opinion.. trusting data vs gut feeling
Always appreciate your insights and honesty. Its hard to stomach the thought of a bear market. Hope u get new subscribers!
Selling right now and being scared is a big mistake. Better to wait until the market get in greed mode to sell.
@GananciasNetwork look at all the fear in the market. Buy the blood, and anyone selling now will likely be selling mid way through the bull market.
I agree with you, Gerhard as to the cycles. The larger picture shows BTC curve is flattening out. Is this the upside of a large bell curve, or will a whole new pattern of price action come along. Those who can accept current bearish action/reality are more likely to be around to find out. Thanks, Gerhard.
Gerhard, a huge thank you to your analysis. Originality and down to earth, without those BTC tripping ideas. Thanks a lot
Thank you.
Thanks Gerhard,
So much work done on tracking something very hard for retail to keep track on
Hey bro, you're the only crypto channel I take an interest in, that says enough. Sadly tho, I cannot afford premium otherwise I definitely would've. Keep up the good work and don't mind the trolls. Most people just watch in silence, that's why toxic reactions seem to prevalent.
You make great content and I am learning allot from your videos. Thanks Gerhard!
Really appreciate your analysis, objective and unbiased
The Vematum ecosystem is top-notch. Can't wait to see it grow!
Gerhard, I am very grateful for your videos. The fact that you use these charts and have now put me onto them show why I didnt make much in crypto. Its like driving blind without them. Please keep up the good work mate. Appreciated.
Hi Gerhard, you are definitely one of the best analysts I have found on RUclips and I take your analysis seriously.
That said there are other frameworks to interpret or rather contextualise the current trend which is admittedly in limbo.
If you look at Jason Pizzino’s gan swing analysis and the average true range, there could be a stealth move happening. This coupled with the fear and greed indicator suggests that there’s more at play than the usual.
Personally I am hedging my bets at the moment and see better upside potential with something like Kaspa.
ETF “distribution” could be reaccumulation. They look the exact same on a chart…
Also the USDT info you presented, does this take into account the European policies around USDT?
Gerhart, thanks for the great content in the last few months.
First, I agree that in this market it makes sense to derisk.
However, there is something I am monitoring that you may find interesting. The last failed rally of BTC could be spotted as a weekly sRSI cross that corresponded to a down trending weekly sRSI on the USDT market cap.
However, if you look closely: BTC weekly bullish sRSI cross supported by bullish momentum on USDT market cap tend to result in pretty significant rallies.
Now, momentum (sRSI) on the weekly is down on both BTC and USDT, with Not much space to go lower. if these two cross up together -> it is fireworks.
It may take a bit of time to play out but…
Gerhard bull market finished or paused ?
Thx for the local bottom signal
Thanks!
Oh wow - thank you!
Hello Gerhard, nice to meet you. I been here for a minute
All emotion. No reasoning. This is the problem with the world today. And it is not an accident.
i appreciate your vids, crypto is an echo chamber of hype. Keep doing your thing,.
Good video my friend
Gerhard, I have really grown to love your channel and appreciate your insights. Keep up the good work!
Do you watch Invest Answers or CTO Larson? They are both very data driven and are more bullish in the short/mid term than you are. I left them a comment recommending that they invite you to one of their videos.
sehr cooles video danke dafür
Thanks. idk if you'll watch it or not but what do you think about the theory from the last two videos from Camel Finance? He also shows some Data that are giving a clue for higher. But maybe not. BTC Price is High and the "mom and dad" investors would not bother.
Hello Gerhard, you listed 3 things at the 9:20 mark. I didnt hear the 3rd one. What was it please?
1. Realized Price Metric
2. MVRV Z score
3. realized to sold(?)
please let me know. Thanks!
@polymathable Realized HODL Ratio is the third one
@@jeet_bozo fantastic, thank you!
The fact that you're willing to take the time to go over comments shows you are working hard for the community your ta is impeccable, very technical and has helped me reevaluate the way I look at my portfolio. Thank you for your knowledge
when everybody expectng will follow btc goes up and when everybody things will go up goes down....bullish as hell
When the market makers flip, the shorters will get roasted. Good luck.
Tbh: been following you since the beginning…and must say:
Your statistics are pretty , pretty good. So I do not understand the negative comments .
Vematum is going to be the 100x project of the year!
Appreciate the advice! Bought XAI94X at $1, holding for 10x gains. Major exchanges like Coinbase, Bybit, and Binance are set to list it soon. Your insights always lead to great investments. Excited about this opportunity, thanks for the tip! Looking forward to significant returns!
It will soon all over the news
Just read news about XAI this morning. Presale is open right now
my friends told me to buy this
Same here! Exciting times ahead! 🚀
Can anyone explain XAI?
I'll give you a like.
Be grateful that there is someone who wants to remind you that you need to sit down a little bit.
People hate bear market 😂
Why😅
What about the fact the majority of money is sitting on the sidelines and in fixed income due to higher interest rates.
Current rates are not sustainable considering the debt the western world has, when rates are cooled off not this year but early next year that money sitting in fixed income will get deployed to stocks and crypto with major going to btc considering a safe asset in crypto.
Considering lower supply 100k btc could come and come and with it the alts will pump. Sounds interesting?
Why people get emotional about it is the big questions. Why? You are just doing a huge favor to all of us
we are hopefully in the banana zone.... lets talk again in september...
only time will tell gerhard
there is something that you are ignoring which is that in the bullish videos, there are a ton of bearish comments, bullish youtubers are getting a lot of hate as well.
I'm just sorry I didn't listen to you in that video, I sold, but I should have done it sooner when you did it.
So, sell ALTs till we hit 43k.
keep posting , good analytics does not bring always tons of viewers
❤
The Google searching for bitcoin and Co are very low. Bitcoin, Ethereum and maybe other altcoin ETF could / will change that. Blackrock etc will send their CEO's in every Talkshow to get the Retail in the market = the stupid money is there
Why should it have changed?
Every Bullmarket had shakeouts
Here some data: yesterday BTC inflow 300 million - you will be buying back soon G 🤗
Who's laughing now... poor them
Maybe the giant bull flag will save this cycle.
I still want to know what you’re smoking? 😂 subscribed all year, I enjoy the content, just hope your wrong on this one over a longer time frame…. So many shit coins in the 💼 still
so the bull market is only difference by ~$5k (74k - 69k) from previous cycle? Previous cycle was only retail but now institutions, in fact, the biggest institution. Being trader must be ready and prepare for wherever market will go. But it seems so weird if the price difference is only 5k.
It means the market is saturated and there are no more net buyers. Every market has a saturation point.
Retail never came back..
They’re too broke
Thanks for the insights! Bought XAI94X, predicting big returns! 📈
undervalued project
What do you think sets XAI apart from other projects? It seems to be dominating discussions lately
XAI is still extremely undervalued
this is a life changing project
very promising
I don’t think a larger inference can be made from the RUclips comments… The reality is that the majority of the market is fearful and the majority is only right about that sentiment when we are actually in a bear market. If we are then that is the time where they can make money while being fearful. If however, we are still in a bull market, then this is the being greedy when others are fearful correction.
The field that has the least understanding will have the most opinions. I prefer unbaised data, that is what I get from this channel - so I'll stay here. I am also Bearish now and have moved my portfolio into Stable Coins.
✍️
Why do you feel the 4 year cycle is broken ? Is it Wall Street and governments becoming market participants?
We have been printing money for 0% for like 14 years lol. It was the most delusional run of money printing in modern history. This is the first cycle where there isn't free money to throw at crypto so I don't think looking back at the previous cycles is going to give us the insight we think. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of counter intuitive stuff happened this go around.
There are more reasons to see a new ATH now than there was a few months ago. The mere anticipation of new inflows catapulted the whole market, yet it remained very restrained compared to what it can be. To think this catapulting is not going to occur again in the next 12-18 months is awkward.
Sorry what a bull market are people talking except bitcoin, Bnb and some new coins … none of them does an alltime high… must alts still und 60% of their alltime high… maybe it was only a correction to the upside… and tbh , there are too many coins out there to keep the market stable… except btc, eth, Bnb and sol…are in a bear market
Please 🙏 change the uniform 😂❤
12:45 "The stronger the language is, the weaker the opinion usually is.." 🤬 Haha that's often very true about using profanity & spot on about the algorithm causing confirmation bias & echo chambers too.. 🎯
I think people also get confused when there are bullish coins in a bearish market, and vice-versa, and they also mix-up bullish markets vs bull runs, and that is probably causing them frustration.. ⚖
- @Acharich ✨
Hi I truly respect your approach, but hope you are not entirely correct. I remain bullish medium to long term on BTC and crypto in general simply because there is a complete shift in the landscape. I believe more and more institutions, companies and countries are going to want / need to own BTC. It is this change that has convinced me to get invested.
🤴
Let them learn with their own mistakes.
I also fallen into the conversation of others so called crypto experts and now I'm subscribed only in 2, yours and another one who post's a video every now and then.
It's Important to identify who is taking serious the information that shares with others and who isn't. It's not easy but, I found you somehow on RUclips in the middle of this jungle so others can too.
Nice job, good work and thank you for sharing some knowledge and insights.
Who is the other one?
@@robbarrell jesse Eckel
@@cham3leon994 will check them out thanks 🙏🏼
....was ist für MICH aktuell der wichtigste Punkt: ganz klar... der fehlende inflow in die stable coins! 🥶👎
I love these comment videos. 😂
Sorry. Just to be clear - you are bearish ONLY FOR THE SHORT TERM?
It’s all a matter of timing indeed.
At the end of the day, he’s just another youtuber. « Bear » is a strong word, and he uses it without a timeline.
It’s not THAT transparent to me.
BWAHAHAHA! "Gerhard you troll!" BWAHAHAHA! When MOON?
I really like your channel but I hope you are wrong this time… I’m still holding and topping up on my positions with a discount.
I’m not selling anything before 2025, maybe this will kill me but hoping you are wrong Gerhard. 😊
I just don't think it was wise of you to sell all your btc bags. In last cycles pullbacks of 30 or 40% happened and didn't stop the bullrun. I believe the fuel to the next leg of the bull will be the FED lowering rates/usa election. For now, just a summer lull
The mistake is not to sell before correction, it is thinking it's a bear market now and not buying everything back.
Spain has won 😂😂
I think you know what you doing Like you play with terms for farming views. Bear market was when bitcoin was at 20K...
We are historically way above where it should be due to ETF so if it would drop to 42K that would mean we are at where its should be considering halving cycle.
It can go anywhere that range for the next 2-3 months and it would be still a bull market. If you think previous ATH reaching is what a bullrun is you delusional.
(you obviously don't because you here for a while, so you just farming the term "bear market" each time btc dips) clever
I'm not sure if you followed your reasoning. Because people are pointing out their opinions, you flag them as "hostile" and conclude that you are on the right side?!
You titled your video with an obvious bearishness, but you add a 50-50 caption, and then you call names! Let alone you called ~25% correction, a bear market! You obviously tried to click-bait people with that title and kept a door open with that caption, and this video clearly shows, you -unfortunately- are not a pro!
You lost subscribers on that video because we are near the end of phase 3 of the bull market, so you are just wrong.
Also we just had a weekly rsi stochastic cross, we raised from 60k - 70k with fake cross in may, this cross is the legit one.
How can you be so certain?
@BitcoinStrategy we have a stochastic rsi cross every 6 months like clockwork even in a bear market and it still causes price to go up short term at least.
@@BitcoinStrategyhows your shorts doing in this “bear market” lol
Gerhart, just because you are a youtuber who seeks to gain from this activity, you will always lack the authenticity of someone who doesn’t seek to gain anything from it. For this reason you will never have my trust 😅 but I think it’s healthy that way, and it’s not an offense. Thanks for being the bearish guy to balance the overall perception.
Your toxic bro.
How so?
I think most of the people who blindly argued against your opinions are the one who couldn't and wouldn't accept that possibly we are in the bear market and they missed the chance of making a profit or even selling in loss and move on!
This is why as a crypto trader u have to feelingless, puf all the emotions aside and deal with the fact and the stats. 👌
depends what you call bear market. btc should be at 42K historically and should not pump to 50K until september. however we were at 71k due to etf. so if bitcoin would go back to 42K we would be still in a bull market that will last anywhere between q1-q4 2025. global liquidity cycles, us election, trump trade, big money coming it (countries buying btc, blackrock owning 300K bitcoin, like its a stacking game.) its unnaturally high at the moment. market cycles aint 1 year, and historically we have still 2-3 months before we can expect any significant move to the upside. however with etf in play and countries going in its incredibly hard to guess. for us spot longterm holders we enter in a bear market and exit at bull peak. if people think previous top range is ATH are just wrong. he couldv said we are at a downtrend till autumn but he said we are in a bear market. he clickbaits each dip
Poor broke people trying to be rich overnight 😂😂😂 if you believe in BTC then invest weekly the more you invest the faster you will be financially free the less you invest the longer it will take
Big shoutout to Vematum for their innovative approach to crypto payments! ICO of the Y!!!
The Vematum ecosystem is top-notch. Can't wait to see it grow!
Vematum is going to be the 100x project of the year!
Big shoutout to Vematum for their innovative approach to crypto payments! ICO of the Y!!!
Vematum is going to be the 100x project of the year!
Vematum is going to be the 100x project of the year!