George Orwell once said that the fastest way to end a war is to lose it. Putin will need to decide if losing a war quickly is less threatening to his hold on power than dragging this out for years and sacrificing the lives of his supporters' children. Remember - It's not about what's best for Russia. Putin's acts in Putin's best interest.
Russia isn't losing... it's definitely a loss from a Morale & Sociopolitical viewpoint but was a resounding victory from a military viewpoint. Russia gave back strategically worthless territory that it didn't want and was in the process of withdrawing from... in exchange Russia got to absolutely maul the NATO trained, NATO equipped, NATO troops that Ukraine was holding in reserve as a precious resource. Losing several thousand troops & getting even more thousands wounded... while inflicting almost no Russian or Allied Forces causalities is how the SMO has been fought since March. Between Kherson & Kharkov... they managed to get a fifth of their 30,000 NATO troops reserve force killed & twice that wounded, plus all that irreplaceable equipment that Ukraine lost so even trying to pretend that shoving conscript bodies into the holes will still mean that less than half the original brigades can ever be Mechanized Infantry again.
Normally, the mud favors the defense because it slows heavy vehicles. But if the offense relies on isolating the enemy heavy vehicles and relies on getting infantry in position to SPOT heavy forces for long ranged artillery, it might be possible for Ukraine to gain ground during the heavy mud season.
True, since they are operating in their own nation and some even in their own neighborhoods, it's as a Ukrainian National Guardsman stated recently, "we know the area, we know where the Russians could attack and prepared for them!"
The geeral weather and terrain being on ukraniane soil is also likely somehting they have more experince dealing wiht over the russians, thus might have ways around it
Putin: I want this war finished as soon as possible. Ukraine: Please be patient. We are doing all we can to make your wish possible. We have to rest from time to time.
Send a blessing from Australia as a Burmese. Well, it should be noted that a lot of people in Myanmar, using underground radio to listen to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, many of us feel we have hope. The Russians have provided support to the murderous junta since days 1 and we are determined to see junta's godfather to lose this war, so it will cripple Min Aung Hlaing's regime the credibility.
The tragedy of Myanmar is sadly no longer in the headlines but the brutal regime that rules there will one day be gone and hopefully that day will be soon. Good luck to you and the people of your country.
I hope that the Burmese people receives the help they need in order to throw off the yoke of oppression. As you say, the impending collapse of the Putin cabal will reduce the standing of the current Burmese junta.
It's strange living through this at the moment. When we talk about battles in a historical context, often we have a lot of information over what both sides were thinking and doing. We have hindsight, and often first hand documents. Whenever I read about battles from world War II for instance it's easy to get access to information going on behind the scenes on both sides. We're not really getting that. Right now there's a lot of unknowns. It will be interesting one day in the future to revisit this whole conflict having first hand accounts over the issue.
The bravery and intelligent fighters able get info and training and put that discipline to the battlefield is phenomenal. Russia is backed into a corner and fools to the world. They will now bomb the hell out of Ukraine and unleash there full might. Not looking good for Ukraine which will then drag the west into a bigger role and closer to nuclear war.
I 100% agree and find whats going on fascinating. Its like watching a Tom Clancy novel unfold in real-time. That being said a LOT of people are dying. I'd much rather all this not be happening and I very much hope it ends sooner rather than later. Hopefully with a Ukrainian victory and them getting all their land back.
You're the first person I've seen to comment on the fact that having more troops doesn't help all that much if you can't equip them with weapons, armour, vehicles, food, etc..
While the autumn weather will make further Ukrainian offensives difficult, it will also make Russian counterattacks very difficult. I wonder whether this was part of the equation.
And more time to get new longer range weapons there, and time to train recruits. Ukraine will only get better equipped with newer pieces, while Russia will be more and more depleted.
@@greenbluemonkey Problem is - Ukraine cannot sustain its armed forces with losses like in battle of donbas or recent counteroffensive near Kherson. They need to become more effecitve in crippling russian logistics. Because in war of human forces Ukraine cannot win.
@@kondziu1992 What makes you think that Ukraine has higher casulties than Russia? We can only speculate, and western speculations (obviously Russian ones are absolutly meaningless) see significantly higher losses on the Russian side. Ukraine has the better weapons, the better trained and more motivated soldiers, and better will to fight this trough in the civilian population. Yes, Ukraine has just 20% of Russias population, but thanks to support from the west, and the mentioned willingness to fight, Ukraine has the manpower advantage. So Ukraine can win in a war of human forces, simply because Russia cannot bring a significant proportion of its population to fight. It already has to trick and force them into fighting, and even that is not enough. Even if Russia had enough soldiers, it has already shown that it can hardly equip and supply those that are in the field right now, and it cannot replace equipment as fast as it loses it, especially with western sanctions destroying its economy. I cannot think of any way Russia could win this war. As long as Ukraine and the west keep up their will to fight, i cannot even think of a way for Russia to achieve something like a draw, or even survive as a united country. Russia is done, and the longer the war lasts, the more atrocities it commits, the deeper it will fall.
@@Omega0850 I didn't say that Ukraine's losses are greater than Russia's. I said that they cannot pay for land with this amount of blood. They messed up in Sewierodonetsk and were late with retreat. They lost more people thanks to that. Because their soldiers are much more better equipped and better trained they cannot afford to lose them in a rate like that. Operation near Kharkiv showed them that winning doesn't have to mean sending their own troops to withstand artillery attack for weeks. Also Russia have potential to have as much manpowet as it wants. It's all about propaganda spin. If they want they will create some fake attack on Russian soil and gather more and more soldiers. You are right - Russia cannot win with their equipment. But they can in Soviet style - drowning Ukraine with their bodies. They won't be able to do that in 20, 30 years because of their ageing population but they still have that potential now. It's not an accident that they just partially mobilized their people. They want to train them during winter.
That last withdraw was nothing but a “tactical redeployment” lol. It also wasn’t a “tactical withdraw” if they left all those weapons behind, that was a straight route. And a second one is coming before the month ends.
@@stevencharnock9271 It was a glorious victorious russian strategic retreat. The tanks and ammo were nothing more than decoys to distract the panicked ukrainian forces during their advance.
Wrong/ignorant on this rather important point. Give away is ignorance over Kyiv. Russians HELD outside the city as negotiations were held, successfully at first. Ukraine and Russian would both have gained significant benefits if these were ultimately successful. In fact, the initial draw back from Kyiv was after initial agreement was reached. But. then Washington neocons sent their UK messenger puppy dog Johnson to tell Zelensky to withdraw from talks, which he did.
I'm from Ukraine. There is no "Ukraine trap for Russia". Ukraine army is no more. It dissolved in the first months of hostilities. Our weapons no longer exist. In fact, there is now a war between NATO and Russia on Ukrainian territory, not a war between Ukraine and Russia. Weapons are NATO's, ammunition is NATO's, the command is NATO's, heavy equipment is NATO's, mercenaries are NATO's, only we, ordinary Ukrainians, are the cannon fodder here that should die for American interests. Stop stirring up this war. If Zelensky wanted peace, he would have signed the Minsk agreements. But he is just a servant of the West, whose goal is the mutual destruction of Russia and Ukraine.
Putin gets a call at 3 AM: "Vladimir Vladimirovici, the Ukrainians want to discuss surrender!" "Oh finally, about damn time, put them through"! "THERE'S NO NEED! THEY'RE ALREADY HERE!
Facts or Deflection ? with referendum votes scheduled for this weekend in the breakaway provinces that have wanted to join Russia for 2-3 decades. And the fact that once again only the news agencies from the west are reporting this as a Ukrainian victory, like this last spring when we were told that Russia was losing. Western Europe is running out of energy and they are heading into winter, where southern Spain and Italy are as far north as Wyoming, France and Germany are as north as Canada.
But these are not facts, alot of it is misinformation and running propaganda. It's so hard to tell people the truth without being bombarded with hate and called a sympathizer. I came to America years ago, but most of my family did not until the war started and some stayed, I get to hear first hand from both sides as I am Russian Ukrainan but now I am ameriki
@@fullfungo I guess what I really meant is that it’s not clearly a propaganda piece for either side. A lot of the stuff I see on RUclips is wayyyy on one side or the other. Doesn’t seem that way with this guys videos.
Putin's political handcuffs led way to actual materiel and personnel handcuffs. For Putin wasted the cadres into combat BTGs around April-May, there won't be enough trainers for new conscripts. The same applies for combat vehicles and individual equipment for said conscripts.
You didn't hear about the RUclips tutorials Putin is putting together? Each episode starts off with him riding in on horseback shirtless. I believe the entrance was specifically put in for Tucker Carlson though.
Oh here we go again, this is Russian federation we are talking of or whatever they call themselves (you know they have history of let's say 'rebranding') do we at this point in history still not expect Russians when caught up in a war to flood us with one of their biggest resource-which is people. I mean c'mon they are trying to recruit convicts promising them a pardon, history will just repeat itself and they will try to flood Ukraine with raging raping and stealing barbarians. I just hope that it won't happen, especially because of civilians. I still to this day shiver sometimes when i remind myself stories heard from my elders how red army "liberated" Poland - these monsters would steal then rape everything, there are many stories of even small children being raped.
Russia won't use nukes in Ukraine, they already got what they want and nothing and nobody can do a thing about it. Now the world will just watch those poor Ukraine freeze in the frontlines. And European citizens paying high prices for energy. The European should kick their politicians out of office, definitely they don't have best interests of their citizens. But Putin will definitely use nukes if Nato attack the new Russian territory. And the west knows it, it's not a bluff.
HIMARS is an afterthought on the M270 (MARS II is a local German designation for their licence built units), precisely to provide a more agile, mobile platform, sacrificing half of the former's payload, but allowing it to be airlifted ... something that made it appealable to the US Marines. The US Army also thought that in a high risk and contested battlefield, it was better suited to "shoot and scoop and hide" operations, and thus more survivable, being the preferred option for the Ukranian battlefield. It has also remained up to know appearantly elusive to Russian intents of destruction. MLRS used to be a saturation weapon and with precision as a secondary thought, as the Russian weapons basically still continue to be; while artillery provided a higher precision and lower cost. All this has blurred, as M270/HIMARS munitions have evolved in range and from "near precision" to precision. Advanced artillery shells also, but the price tag makes them a "limited use" choice. All three weapon systems are among the major effective contributors ... but HIMARS regardless of the hype, is the star.
Thanks for your insights. Not being an expert, I never realized, before this war, the significant political influence of anti-war mothers and the anti-mobilization sentiment that exists, especially in Russian population centers (Moscow, St. Petersburg etc.). The U.S. post Vietnam was smart to create an all volunteer force, leaving conscription to more extreme situations.
That's not entirely true: "The [US] ... was smart to create an [all-volunteer force]...". When a nation fails to draft soldiers from a broad segment of it's population, but relies on volunteers only, it relies on the types of volunteers and their characters: true patriots with a desire to serve their countries militarily, thugs who would otherwise be "street" criminals or join organized crime syndicates, and nut-cases (which can fall into either preceding categories). After the American War In Vietnam (Vietnam won; the North won their civil war over the South; they get to name it), to be able to continue to get funding from the US Congress, the US military had to change as the draft had become so unpopular as it was done extremely unfairly: men who could not get into college or had dropped out--who were considered as "economically and humanitarily expendable" by the US military/industrial complex--were drafted at a vastly younger age than compared to the WWII and Korean War (which the US initially termed a "police action", similarly to Russia's "special military operation" attempting to hide the fact that it engaged in war with Ukraine without formally declaring war). Racial minorities were drafted at greater rates than the Caucasian ("white") majority. This lead to conflicts within small units and the military command structure. By increasing soldiers' pay, by giving greater benefits while in service and after, the US military hoped to draft a better class of soldiers, similar to the WWI and WWII drafts. That hasn't necessarily happened. The victors tend to write the histories of the wars they fight and the US is no different. Some (there are those who'd say "many") atrocities have been committed by US troops against civilian populations in Iraq and Afghanistan. This tends to support the idea that the US' "All Volunteer Army" is not as effective as it is supposed to be at fighting limited wars within the "rules of warfare" which increasingly seem to get broken as the conflicts escalate.😮💨
I'm from Ukraine. There is no "Ukraine trap for Russia". Ukraine army is no more. It dissolved in the first months of hostilities. Our weapons no longer exist. In fact, there is now a war between NATO and Russia on Ukrainian territory, not a war between Ukraine and Russia. Weapons are NATO's, ammunition is NATO's, the command is NATO's, heavy equipment is NATO's, mercenaries are NATO's, only we, ordinary Ukrainians, are the cannon fodder here that should die for American interests. Stop stirring up this war. If Zelensky wanted peace, he would have signed the Minsk agreements. But he is just a servant of the West, whose goal is the mutual destruction of Russia and Ukraine.
Usually, in Ukraine we had very cold and snowy winters, but because of global warming last few years were kinda warm with something like -5 to 0 Celsius, and it is as snowy as rainy now.
You've got superior visuals and therefore your programs are much more enjoyable to watch than the majority of channels dealing with this subject and showing nothing but canned images. Today I saw one channel taking about the Russian and Chinese in the Pacific off the coast of Alaska while showing a map of Greenland. It's like one person stitches together the visuals while a different person writes a narrative and somehow they get everything mixed up and don't really care.
Yes the computer generating you humans has generated powerful videos to support the opposition to existiance. This is why I do not waste a second thinking any part of the system deserves to live
Unfortunate timing, Putin just called partial mobilization all across the country. Ones who fail to show up to their station risk prosecution due to a law that was passed literally today
Not true, they call only those who are in reserve (those who have already served in the army), giving preference to those who served under contract. Now I do not know anyone who was on urgent service and was called up, but all contract soldiers are called up. And there is no risk of jail here, because only those who were given a повестка (document which forse you to serve a military) in person can be called up, the rest may not appear at the military enlistment office. Therefore, it is very easy to avoid the draft, just stay at home and do not open door to anyone
How different would it have been if Russia had attacked when Trump was the president? I don't think that Ukraine would have received any support or equipment from the US.
Trump is the same president that had Iran’s top general assassinated in a drone strike. The same guy that cleaned up ISIS and their leadership getting killed. The same guy that bombed Syria’s bases for using chemical weapons. I think that plays a role in why they may not want to attack with Trump in office.
Funny, he did not attack. Lol. Why do you think that is? He’s smart and knows trump to be a much stronger leader than Biden. Biden even gave Russia the go ahead by saying things like that “a limited military incursion of ukraine would be legal and okay”. And putin conveniently didn’t make any moves on Ukraine after crimea, all the while trump was president, only when we have had weak democrat rulers that say they’re tough and immediately capitulate when challenged. Obamas “red line” lmfao. Ring any bells?
Unless you believe that ‘tRUmP wAS pUTiN’s pUPPeT’, trust that the US won’t let up an opportunity to weaken one of it’s rivals regardless of who’s in the White House. After all, they continued to support/train Ukrainian forces during the war in the Donbass during Trump’s tenure and he warned Germany to cut it’s gas dependence on Russia at the UN. You could even argue that without Biden’s energy policy, the US would be in a better place to supply Europe’s needs which would make Putin’s weaponisation of oil & gas less effective.
Except.. You think Russians did not know this was coming? The draw back from Kharkiv was very likely in part readiness for the mobilisation, that would have been in the works for weeks, if not months. RGS also very likely waiting for the SCO meeting at Samarkand to discuss with important friends and allies. Kharkiv, they were facing basically armed police. No trap. Punched empty air with big losses. Kherson, facing regular army. AFU massacred with huge losses. Don't get too sure you understand what Russia can do or even what was going on. Not really too up to date though. Usual proUkraine propaganda. Give away is the ignorance over Kyiv early on. Russians HELD outside the city as negotiations were held, successfully at first. Ukraine and Russian would both have gained significant benefits if these were ultimately successful. In fact, the initial draw back from Kyiv was after initial agreement was reached. But. then Washington neocons sent their UK messenger puppy dog Johnson to tell Zelensky to withdraw from talks, which he did. The rest is history. And this information is deeply flawed.
@@therzal the information is not flawed at all, its perfectly accurate, russia is in shambles, doesnt matter if its a trap for ukraine, they will still lose
Good video, thanks. Really good maps for understanding the geography and military strategy issues and the. How they affect overall political/war issues.
@@Vedioviswritingservice As I understand these Iranian drones are much slower than a rocket (I guess all drones are) I suspect the HIMARS will always be long gone when the drone finally arrives. These trucks don't exactly stick around after firing.
WOW!!! well done sir!!!! The part where you explained how pushing Russian forces back can work in Russias favor because their forces not only have to defend smaller areas but their forces are also collectively grouped. I frikn love that you pointed this out.. Do you have a military background? I want to know more about you..
As a Chilean, I only feel sorry and grief for Ukrainian people when seeing the invasion launched by my ancestral state. I hold no grievance against Russia as it is my ancestral country, but Putin has turned Russia into a hell hole place, full of hatred and resentment.
Does your grief extend to the Ukrainians the live in the Donbass that have shelled for the past eight years by the Ukrainian Army? Or is it only certain Ukrainians lives that matter?
@@dcv5000 Ukraine, including most of the Russian speaking parts and their Russian speaking President have said clearly that they don't want to be Russian. They also don't want to live under Putler.
Excellent analysis and well-explained. It's perhaps unfortunate that so much has changed in the hours since you posted this. Or maybe it fortune smiling on you that you have new content hand delivered before this one could get old. Either way, I look forward to your update.
@@andoriannationalist3738 right... because truth can only come from autocratic regimes who own and control the media and silence their critics, as opposed to democracies that enshrine freedom of speech for everybody including ignorant trolls like you.
I knew Russia was screwed when they sent their tanks in with spray painted markers like Z which isn't even in the Russian alphabet by the way. Third world countries have more professional paint jobs on their tanks than they do!
Interesting analysis. Winter will suck for Russian troops that aren’t well fed and lacking cold-weather equipment. Even a mild winter in that country is brutal if you have to live in the elements. If I was a Ukrainian commander I would go after their supply. That’s pretty much what the Ukrainians have been doing a great job of since the beginning of this “ special military action”. Also the Ukrainians can also park the tanks and fight an infantry war if the soil turns to soup. Mules and other draft animals can deal with mud and mountain terrain. If Ukrainians can eliminate Russian anti-aircraft assets then using helicopters is an option.
Attacking Russia's supply lines has been key for Ukraine. I believe that is why the main counterattack came near Kharkiv and not Kherson in the south. Russian forces in Kherson are already struggling with logistics issues and that front has remained comparatively static. By contrast, there is a massive highway and rail line between Lyssychansk and Sievierodonesk in the north. If Ukraine takes and manages to hold those, they control the northeast theatre and essentially strangle the already struggling Russian logistics lines. Russia is already having great difficulty in keeping its troops fed. Putin calling up an additional 300,000 reservists may exacerbate this further.
Having been on the defense during maneuvers in the middle of winter in Scandinavian country, sitting in a hole freezing your ass off waiting is not enjoyable, especially if they don't want to be there in the first place and haven't been issued cold weather equipment.
I hope Ukraine gets Crimea back. I think back to when Russia Stole it and annexed it from Ukraine and I really wish alley nations supported Ukraine to defend from losing it. They could simultaneously cut off the north access routes so leaving all the rest of Russia's troop's seemingly on a logistical island.
Crimea people speak Russian , feels Russian..It's not a war between UkrainevsRussia , it's USA+AlliesVSRussia ..The purpose is to weak Russia and the final target is China.
@Dean Clark Russia should have claimed it right after the USSR broke up. They didn't and accepted the borders for almost a quarter century... Too late!
@Dean Clark You obviously know nothing about history. Not only does Crimea belong to Ukrain but Rusia signed a treaty where they agread that it belonged to Ukrain. There is no legal grounds for it to belong to anyone else.
The main success of the kharkiv offensive was the recapture of Iszym, a strategically important road junction, which will undoubtly cause logistical issues for the remaining soldiers on the eastern front
From what I've gathered so far, ukrainian forces relied heavilly on light vehicles (eg. HMMWV) for their counter offensive with great success. We'll see how the mud will influence their operations. Anyway, great video ^^
Russia still currently has rail access from the North through Troit'ske, although I expect the Ukrainians will be trying to close that off soon as they can. Access from the East will remain pretty solid with several rail feeders into the North Donest'sk and Southern Luhan'sk region and is unlikely to be threatened any time soon.
It is funny how everyone is forgetting, winning a battle is not winning a war. Just because you own at the beginning doesn't mean you will win till last.
Good video but I have few quibbles. Putin attacked at end the of winter/start of mud season. Winter will come and it may be distant help to Ukraine due to rivers freezing. Tanks, especially Russian ones, have wide treads to distribute their weight and have much lower psi than supply trucks. Really hard to predict what affect mud season might have the war. Putin may want another 137,000 troops but he didn't initiate a draft so I doubt this will have much effect. To make matters worst he raided his training units to form new combat units making that much more difficult to generate anything better than cannon fodder.
ya, I wonder WHAT recruits Putin thinks he is going to generate here. The trainers are in combat or dead already, arming them is obviously a problem, and how motivated would they be anyway? What happened to the third army they trained and deployed? I hear it is already degraded to 'defense only" if not worse.
They're relaxing the recruiting and starting to hire mercenaries... this is not the move of a country with a big pool of potential soldiers to throw into the grinder.
@@jevinliu4658 u got it twisted so badly. Ukraine uses Russian tanks...they originated from Russia. Now that Russia attacked Ukraine illegal and morally...they fight each other with same equipment. Finally, it's Russian troops abandoning their tanks...and Ukrainian troops are commandeering them. Ukrainians are driving abandoned Russia tanks...not other way around.
I heard the soft ground also makes artillery less effective, because it digs into the goeund and absorbs a lot of the fragments. I saw an interview with a Swedish volunteer for ukraine and he was saying that
@@leehotspur9679 I read a book from a soldier on the eastern front in WW2 that also mentioned being saved by the mudbowl reducing artillery effect. Its not quite like shooting a bullet into water but mud does decrease the effectiveness somewhat.
The road and railroad bridges at Chongar Strait, at the path from Melitopol to Crimea will become very important in the near future. I anticipate that Ukraine will take the best advantage of this bottleneck.
I was thinking this myself Robit. It could make worse one of Russia's larger problems. Ther logistics and supply for this has been almost a joke. Especially when they seemed to plan on a 7 day war that's in its seventh month.
Slava Ukraini! Glory to Ukrainian fighters! The world salutes you and love you as heroes of this present world! The rest of freedom loving countries relying on your soonest victory! God be your strength, your shield and your victory!--- Philippines for Ukraine.
Hi from Irish Rep ─William ,heres what i suggest will occur ,if russian keeps on losing like they have been even with sending xtra troops ,one of those large Nuclear plants will be hit by Russia who will blame kiev ,or say it was a accident .No need for putin to use nukes at all .
Hey mate, really enjoying your videos. I was wondering that considering your research of nuclear weapons what your opinion on Ukraine's decision to hand over it's nuclear weapons to Russia in 1994 and if there was really a viable alternative (could they realistically have maintained nuclear weapons at that time etc.)
@@AbusiveHD possession is 9/10ths of the law. This generally holds true for nominal property disputes and judicial proceedings. These are nuclear weapons. If Ukraine said “no, we are keeping them. What are you going to do about it?” I think it’s obvious that it was a HUGE mistake to give them all back in exchange for “security guarantees” which neither the US nor Russia upheld their commitments. If Ukraine had nukes, Russia would not have control of any Ukrainian territory today, period.
@@AbusiveHD once the ussr broke up, whatever they left behind wasn't theirs anymore.. Poland had many nukes there when the ussr broke up and Poland still has those nukes
You can have billions of soldiers if you want but they need equipment they dont have and cant replace due to sanctions. They also need training, but a lot of the best trainers are dead already and they will need food and water, which will be a pain to get in Kherson. Hard to say what a good move for them would be, considering the disastrous cost its already taken.
"putin has an incentive to end the special operation, begin the war and call for a mobilisation" Well that was prophetic (or rather you did your research well). We'll have to see how much Ukraine can do before the mobilisation is complete, but I hope they can eventually retake all of Ukraine
I love the fact that he can mention something in a video in the past, and then not that much later it comes into effect. In this video it was the brief mention of Nordstrom pipeline. In the 10 outcomes of the war video it was the gamble for resurrection outcome he predicted which he said Putin was doing since he declared a draft.
Greetings from Brazil, excellent analysis! As protests in Russia apparently result in arrest, but being recruited can result in being crippled or killed, I believe many Russians will prefer to protest and I think this will generate a lot of political instability for Putin.
Well thought out and explained. Let's hope Russia's recent inner turmoil re: partial mobilization helps screw up their ability to defend in the Eastern states.
I was always rooting for Ukraine since Russia really had no justification to start a war. The started the invasion amid a pandemic. This was a war nobody wanted except Putin and his lackeys. Also Putin remains in his office issuing orders while Zelensky was among his soldiers and rejected the offer to leave his country. A king that fights his battles. From a comedian to a brave president. Ukraine is lucky.
It's interesting that you mentioned "A Bridge To Far". 78 years ago This past Saturday to Next Sunday Sept 25 Operation Market Garden. It was a failure as you know. Russia have bit off way more than they can chew. Drafting youngmen and giving them a week of training is not going to save them from losing the war. In my opinion they already have lost the war back when they failed to take and hold Hosimel Airport. I think they are really hoping for the "mud". Things can go static, with no much movement or shooting. This would give them time to marshall up replacements and stuff and in the deep of winter say mid December if the ground is frozen enough, try to do what Germany tried to do in December of 1944. That is all they can do at this point one more roll of the dice the problem is that they can't hide it. So they will just continue to slug it out till Ukraine breaks, or that what they want,. The Ukrianians are not going to break nor will the outside support dry up, to many are fully committed. Other than that I don't know what the tea leaves will for tell.
Like the Germans, the Russians lacked the proper gear to face Mother Winter last year. Can they rectify that mistake in time for the 2022-23 version of Mother Dearest? Hmm.
The computer is auto generating humans when I summon them. That means alongside the music it's auto generating an showing me how it can auto generate videos; the probability these videos; especially with no face to give credit to; are being auto generated. So you seem confused. An the computers narrative isn't original / "great". It's old an generic an played out as i knew it 40 years ago
@@UnavailableHandle. i mean, what's the point of blaming trump for something he didnt do? and why praise biden when he's the one whose son has interests in ukraine (cough cough le gas cough)
One thing is generally true and it is that Putin and his war machine have exhibited huge miscalculations that have put them in their present bind and on their back foot. It's not reasonable to think that this will change very significantly given the various hamstrings that the Russian forces are dealing with be them logistical, moral, leadership or whatever. They're sort of batting 100% as keystone cops notwithstanding the brutal indiscriminate terror they've unleashed on Ukraine. Despite this, many experts (not all) seem to agree that t's only a matter of time before the Russians are chased out of Ukraine. Whether such an outcome of the war brings Putin down or not is anyone's guess. One thing is for sure and it is this: the west/NATO need to arm Ukraine to the teeth, especially with long-range precision artillery. Ukraine is a civilized country who adheres to the norms of war and given its ambitions to join the EU, the west/NATO can count on them to limit their assault on Russian territory proper to strategic assets with strict avoidance of civilian populations and infrastructure. Your analaysis, William is great. Keep up the good work!
I suspect they'll try to hold on to as much of the coast as they can and then he will declare it the true objective / victory he will originally wanted which of course isn't the case. I hope Ukraine is able to push them all the way out but it would be very costly.
"HIMARSing the Stroganoff out of them" might be the single greatest phrase I've ever heard in my life 😂
They always say HIMARS but never HOWMARS
@@famweefood7073 or WHYMARS? WHENMARS? WHOMARS? The reporters questions. Which will get you jailed in russia I guess
*laughs in Iranian drones*
@@dylanfraser1111 fun when you have to get stuff from iran or North Korea. Have fun with that
Agreed
George Orwell once said that the fastest way to end a war is to lose it.
Putin will need to decide if losing a war quickly is less threatening to his hold on power than dragging this out for years and sacrificing the lives of his supporters' children. Remember - It's not about what's best for Russia. Putin's acts in Putin's best interest.
Russia isn't losing... it's definitely a loss from a Morale & Sociopolitical viewpoint but was a resounding victory from a military viewpoint. Russia gave back strategically worthless territory that it didn't want and was in the process of withdrawing from... in exchange Russia got to absolutely maul the NATO trained, NATO equipped, NATO troops that Ukraine was holding in reserve as a precious resource. Losing several thousand troops & getting even more thousands wounded... while inflicting almost no Russian or Allied Forces causalities is how the SMO has been fought since March. Between Kherson & Kharkov... they managed to get a fifth of their 30,000 NATO troops reserve force killed & twice that wounded, plus all that irreplaceable equipment that Ukraine lost so even trying to pretend that shoving conscript bodies into the holes will still mean that less than half the original brigades can ever be Mechanized Infantry again.
@@nationalsocialism3504 thank God someone gets it.
@@ramonandrajo6348 Russian bot. Running out of arguments? Is that why your spamming the same lame comments over and over again? 😁
@@nationalsocialism3504 hi Russian bot
@@nationalsocialism3504 lol. Careful, don't get overdosed on copium.
Normally, the mud favors the defense because it slows heavy vehicles. But if the offense relies on isolating the enemy heavy vehicles and relies on getting infantry in position to SPOT heavy forces for long ranged artillery, it might be possible for Ukraine to gain ground during the heavy mud season.
True, since they are operating in their own nation and some even in their own neighborhoods, it's as a Ukrainian National Guardsman stated recently, "we know the area, we know where the Russians could attack and prepared for them!"
Drones like mud a lot, especially when their targets stuck in it... It will become a real life training gallery.
The geeral weather and terrain being on ukraniane soil is also likely somehting they have more experince dealing wiht over the russians, thus might have ways around it
Ukrainians are well aware of mud, having been brought up in it. The botched Russian attack on Kyiv shows that they don't have the same nous.
@@twistedturnip8487 Russia has a lot of terrain like Ukraine.
Watching history in real time is amazing and terrifying.
Agreed. As a Total War player I’m both intrigued and yet mortified.
Putin: I want this war finished as soon as possible.
Ukraine: Please be patient. We are doing all we can to make your wish possible. We have to rest from time to time.
and also... we give mr putin time to get used on losing without pushing this fatal red button
You guys are funny as hell.
Reality: Half of Ukraine already annexed.
@@PatTheRiot lmao you are coping hard
@@PatTheRiot good job Ivan. Now go collect your potatoes from Putin before he throws useless Russian trolls out the window.
Send a blessing from Australia as a Burmese. Well, it should be noted that a lot of people in Myanmar, using underground radio to listen to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, many of us feel we have hope. The Russians have provided support to the murderous junta since days 1 and we are determined to see junta's godfather to lose this war, so it will cripple Min Aung Hlaing's regime the credibility.
The tragedy of Myanmar is sadly no longer in the headlines but the brutal regime that rules there will one day be gone and hopefully that day will be soon. Good luck to you and the people of your country.
I hope that the Burmese people receives the help they need in order to throw off the yoke of oppression. As you say, the impending collapse of the Putin cabal will reduce the standing of the current Burmese junta.
It's strange living through this at the moment. When we talk about battles in a historical context, often we have a lot of information over what both sides were thinking and doing. We have hindsight, and often first hand documents. Whenever I read about battles from world War II for instance it's easy to get access to information going on behind the scenes on both sides. We're not really getting that. Right now there's a lot of unknowns. It will be interesting one day in the future to revisit this whole conflict having first hand accounts over the issue.
The bravery and intelligent fighters able get info and training and put that discipline to the battlefield is phenomenal. Russia is backed into a corner and fools to the world. They will now bomb the hell out of Ukraine and unleash there full might. Not looking good for Ukraine which will then drag the west into a bigger role and closer to nuclear war.
I 100% agree and find whats going on fascinating. Its like watching a Tom Clancy novel unfold in real-time. That being said a LOT of people are dying. I'd much rather all this not be happening and I very much hope it ends sooner rather than later. Hopefully with a Ukrainian victory and them getting all their land back.
I’ll tell you the history.
US provides all intel, weapons, and systems to defeat russian army in ukraine lol..
@@billbillson5082 Freedom isn't free. US provides the hardware and software... Ukraine provides the blood and lives.
@@billbillson5082 ok so what's next after that
Thank you for your calm explanation of the war.
You're the first person I've seen to comment on the fact that having more troops doesn't help all that much if you can't equip them with weapons, armour, vehicles, food, etc..
LOL .. We need WW3 so I can stop seeing dumbass comments. Logistics is a key fundamental. Not a revelation hahahahahah
cannon fodder
The Battle of Stalingrad is a good historical example of this.
like Napoleon said, an army marches on it's stomach.
it also does not help if they are not trained and unmotivated they will just end up cannon fodder.
While the autumn weather will make further Ukrainian offensives difficult, it will also make Russian counterattacks very difficult. I wonder whether this was part of the equation.
And more time to get new longer range weapons there, and time to train recruits. Ukraine will only get better equipped with newer pieces, while Russia will be more and more depleted.
@@greenbluemonkey Problem is - Ukraine cannot sustain its armed forces with losses like in battle of donbas or recent counteroffensive near Kherson. They need to become more effecitve in crippling russian logistics. Because in war of human forces Ukraine cannot win.
@@kondziu1992 Ukraine is fighting for its survival , Russia is not
@@kondziu1992 What makes you think that Ukraine has higher casulties than Russia? We can only speculate, and western speculations (obviously Russian ones are absolutly meaningless) see significantly higher losses on the Russian side.
Ukraine has the better weapons, the better trained and more motivated soldiers, and better will to fight this trough in the civilian population. Yes, Ukraine has just 20% of Russias population, but thanks to support from the west, and the mentioned willingness to fight, Ukraine has the manpower advantage.
So Ukraine can win in a war of human forces, simply because Russia cannot bring a significant proportion of its population to fight. It already has to trick and force them into fighting, and even that is not enough.
Even if Russia had enough soldiers, it has already shown that it can hardly equip and supply those that are in the field right now, and it cannot replace equipment as fast as it loses it, especially with western sanctions destroying its economy.
I cannot think of any way Russia could win this war. As long as Ukraine and the west keep up their will to fight, i cannot even think of a way for Russia to achieve something like a draw, or even survive as a united country.
Russia is done, and the longer the war lasts, the more atrocities it commits, the deeper it will fall.
@@Omega0850 I didn't say that Ukraine's losses are greater than Russia's. I said that they cannot pay for land with this amount of blood. They messed up in Sewierodonetsk and were late with retreat. They lost more people thanks to that.
Because their soldiers are much more better equipped and better trained they cannot afford to lose them in a rate like that. Operation near Kharkiv showed them that winning doesn't have to mean sending their own troops to withstand artillery attack for weeks.
Also Russia have potential to have as much manpowet as it wants. It's all about propaganda spin. If they want they will create some fake attack on Russian soil and gather more and more soldiers. You are right - Russia cannot win with their equipment. But they can in Soviet style - drowning Ukraine with their bodies. They won't be able to do that in 20, 30 years because of their ageing population but they still have that potential now. It's not an accident that they just partially mobilized their people. They want to train them during winter.
That last withdraw was nothing but a “tactical redeployment” lol. It also wasn’t a “tactical withdraw” if they left all those weapons behind, that was a straight route. And a second one is coming before the month ends.
I think it's common practice nowadays to simply not believe a single world that comes out the Russian governments mouths
It was a special redeployment to resupply Ukraine with tanks and ammunition.
@@stevencharnock9271 It was a glorious victorious russian strategic retreat. The tanks and ammo were nothing more than decoys to distract the panicked ukrainian forces during their advance.
I counted 5 Russians tanks in all videos? Do you have a video for your claims of the hundreds of equipment? Or you are just a sheep 🐑
@Dean Clark
Oh, they did.
Great video! Hard to believe all this is happening. Hope this doesn’t result in the worst case scenario! Keep oosting more videos!
FAKE NEWS Фейковые новости💓
@@russianprincess3673 💩
@@russianprincess3673 russia caca 💩 🖕🏿
@@russianprincess3673 what's fake news?
@@russianprincess3673 Fake News! The declaration by someone who can't make a factual rebuttal with facts.
Excellent analysis, structure and presentation, as always. Thank you for making these amazing vids.
He wrong clown!!!
@@michaelblake2280 How is he wrong?
Wrong/ignorant on this rather important point.
Give away is ignorance over Kyiv.
Russians HELD outside the city as negotiations were held, successfully at first.
Ukraine and Russian would both have gained significant benefits if these were ultimately successful. In fact, the initial draw back from Kyiv was after initial agreement was reached.
But. then Washington neocons sent their UK messenger puppy dog Johnson to tell Zelensky to withdraw from talks, which he did.
I'm from Ukraine. There is no "Ukraine trap for Russia". Ukraine army is no more. It dissolved in the first months of hostilities. Our weapons no longer exist. In fact, there is now a war between NATO and Russia on Ukrainian territory, not a war between Ukraine and Russia. Weapons are NATO's, ammunition is NATO's, the command is NATO's, heavy equipment is NATO's, mercenaries are NATO's, only we, ordinary Ukrainians, are the cannon fodder here that should die for American interests. Stop stirring up this war. If Zelensky wanted peace, he would have signed the Minsk agreements. But he is just a servant of the West, whose goal is the mutual destruction of Russia and Ukraine.
Putin gets a call at 3 AM:
"Vladimir Vladimirovici, the Ukrainians want to discuss surrender!"
"Oh finally, about damn time, put them through"!
"THERE'S NO NEED! THEY'RE ALREADY HERE!
Really good video man. I love how you aren’t biased and just give us the facts. Well done.
Facts or Deflection ?
with referendum votes scheduled for this weekend in the breakaway provinces that have wanted to join Russia for 2-3 decades.
And the fact that once again only the news agencies from the west are reporting this as a Ukrainian victory, like this last spring when we were told that Russia was losing.
Western Europe is running out of energy and they are heading into winter, where southern Spain and Italy are as far north as Wyoming, France and Germany are as north as Canada.
A rare trait these days.
But these are not facts, alot of it is misinformation and running propaganda. It's so hard to tell people the truth without being bombarded with hate and called a sympathizer. I came to America years ago, but most of my family did not until the war started and some stayed, I get to hear first hand from both sides as I am Russian Ukrainan but now I am ameriki
You can’t really know if they’re biased. That’s a strange thing to say.
But it is quite informative either way.
@@fullfungo I guess what I really meant is that it’s not clearly a propaganda piece for either side. A lot of the stuff I see on RUclips is wayyyy on one side or the other. Doesn’t seem that way with this guys videos.
As always, we are all much the better for your work. Thank you.
Putin's political handcuffs led way to actual materiel and personnel handcuffs.
For Putin wasted the cadres into combat BTGs around April-May, there won't be enough trainers for new conscripts. The same applies for combat vehicles and individual equipment for said conscripts.
Excellent point. You need veterans to train the recruits, and if there aren't enough veterans...
Will the autumn and winter slowdown give Russia the time they need to bring new recruits up to speed?
You didn't hear about the RUclips tutorials Putin is putting together? Each episode starts off with him riding in on horseback shirtless. I believe the entrance was specifically put in for Tucker Carlson though.
Ojt.
Oh here we go again, this is Russian federation we are talking of or whatever they call themselves (you know they have history of let's say 'rebranding') do we at this point in history still not expect Russians when caught up in a war to flood us with one of their biggest resource-which is people.
I mean c'mon they are trying to recruit convicts promising them a pardon, history will just repeat itself and they will try to flood Ukraine with raging raping and stealing barbarians. I just hope that it won't happen, especially because of civilians.
I still to this day shiver sometimes when i remind myself stories heard from my elders how red army "liberated" Poland - these monsters would steal then rape everything, there are many stories of even small children being raped.
You have some of the best war analysis reports in all of RUclipsdom. Kudos to your reports.
Analysis are thousands and rarely do they meet the reality or forecast properly
Yes. Very fair and balanced.
Excellent, comprehensive analysis. Well done.
Another great channel to check out is Perun.
Russia won't use nukes in Ukraine, they already got what they want and nothing and nobody can do a thing about it. Now the world will just watch those poor Ukraine freeze in the frontlines. And European citizens paying high prices for energy. The European should kick their politicians out of office, definitely they don't have best interests of their citizens. But Putin will definitely use nukes if Nato attack the new Russian territory. And the west knows it, it's not a bluff.
For the HIMARS act: also the MARS II and the Panzerhaubitze 2000
HIMARS is an afterthought on the M270 (MARS II is a local German designation for their licence built units), precisely to provide a more agile, mobile platform, sacrificing half of the former's payload, but allowing it to be airlifted ... something that made it appealable to the US Marines. The US Army also thought that in a high risk and contested battlefield, it was better suited to "shoot and scoop and hide" operations, and thus more survivable, being the preferred option for the Ukranian battlefield. It has also remained up to know appearantly elusive to Russian intents of destruction.
MLRS used to be a saturation weapon and with precision as a secondary thought, as the Russian weapons basically still continue to be; while artillery provided a higher precision and lower cost. All this has blurred, as M270/HIMARS munitions have evolved in range and from "near precision" to precision. Advanced artillery shells also, but the price tag makes them a "limited use" choice.
All three weapon systems are among the major effective contributors ... but HIMARS regardless of the hype, is the star.
@@santoriniblue8413 wow thank you for the comment!
Thanks for your insights. Not being an expert, I never realized, before this war, the significant political influence of anti-war mothers and the anti-mobilization sentiment that exists, especially in Russian population centers (Moscow, St. Petersburg etc.). The U.S. post Vietnam was smart to create an all volunteer force, leaving conscription to more extreme situations.
ukrainversusrussiawar
ukraii
nversususdiawar
Very good the siruation is interesring all depends in how Ucrain hold up in the winter.
That's not entirely true: "The [US] ... was smart to create an [all-volunteer force]...". When a nation fails to draft soldiers from a broad segment of it's population, but relies on volunteers only, it relies on the types of volunteers and their characters: true patriots with a desire to serve their countries militarily, thugs who would otherwise be "street" criminals or join organized crime syndicates, and nut-cases (which can fall into either preceding categories). After the American War In Vietnam (Vietnam won; the North won their civil war over the South; they get to name it), to be able to continue to get funding from the US Congress, the US military had to change as the draft had become so unpopular as it was done extremely unfairly: men who could not get into college or had dropped out--who were considered as "economically and humanitarily expendable" by the US military/industrial complex--were drafted at a vastly younger age than compared to the WWII and Korean War (which the US initially termed a "police action", similarly to Russia's "special military operation" attempting to hide the fact that it engaged in war with Ukraine without formally declaring war). Racial minorities were drafted at greater rates than the Caucasian ("white") majority. This lead to conflicts within small units and the military command structure. By increasing soldiers' pay, by giving greater benefits while in service and after, the US military hoped to draft a better class of soldiers, similar to the WWI and WWII drafts. That hasn't necessarily happened. The victors tend to write the histories of the wars they fight and the US is no different. Some (there are those who'd say "many") atrocities have been committed by US troops against civilian populations in Iraq and Afghanistan. This tends to support the idea that the US' "All Volunteer Army" is not as effective as it is supposed to be at fighting limited wars within the "rules of warfare" which increasingly seem to get broken as the conflicts escalate.😮💨
I'm from Ukraine. There is no "Ukraine trap for Russia". Ukraine army is no more. It dissolved in the first months of hostilities. Our weapons no longer exist. In fact, there is now a war between NATO and Russia on Ukrainian territory, not a war between Ukraine and Russia. Weapons are NATO's, ammunition is NATO's, the command is NATO's, heavy equipment is NATO's, mercenaries are NATO's, only we, ordinary Ukrainians, are the cannon fodder here that should die for American interests. Stop stirring up this war. If Zelensky wanted peace, he would have signed the Minsk agreements. But he is just a servant of the West, whose goal is the mutual destruction of Russia and Ukraine.
1. When the adversary digs themselves into a hole, throw them more shovels. 2 Leave your enemy a golden bridge to retreat.
When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.
-Tsun Tzu
Usually, in Ukraine we had very cold and snowy winters, but because of global warming last few years were kinda warm with something like -5 to 0 Celsius, and it is as snowy as rainy now.
Good to hear your positive attitude with one leg I am no use to you x vietn
Beautiful video, great content, thought provoking, extremely informative
Sinister hedonistic comment while children and women suffer
Utter nonsense
@@Kaatu-barada-nikto *Fake referendum. Nobody cares, or is paying attention to that clown show.
Great video, love it! Very clearly explained
How indiscriminate of you, how simplistic. This is the American way.
thanks so much for the excellent overview of the current status of the war :)
You're wonderfully literate and have a fine voice for this work. Well presented.
You've got superior visuals and therefore your programs are much more enjoyable to watch than the majority of channels dealing with this subject and showing nothing but canned images. Today I saw one channel taking about the Russian and Chinese in the Pacific off the coast of Alaska while showing a map of Greenland. It's like one person stitches together the visuals while a different person writes a narrative and somehow they get everything mixed up and don't really care.
Yes the computer generating you humans has generated powerful videos to support the opposition to existiance. This is why I do not waste a second thinking any part of the system deserves to live
@@ShawnJonesHellion Your response has been sent to Command Central and you will be invalidated and scrapped with warp speed.
@Shawn Jones, you need to find a better online translation tool. Your sentences don't make sense.
Hello, thanks for your precise analysis report. More power . God bless. Slava ukraini.
we never need gods!
Unfortunate timing, Putin just called partial mobilization all across the country. Ones who fail to show up to their station risk prosecution due to a law that was passed literally today
Let's see how many chose 10 years prison over certain death
@@remote24 With them sending mercenary recruiters into prisons, who truly knows if it’s a choice of death or non-death
Not true, they call only those who are in reserve (those who have already served in the army), giving preference to those who served under contract. Now I do not know anyone who was on urgent service and was called up, but all contract soldiers are called up. And there is no risk of jail here, because only those who were given a повестка (document which forse you to serve a military) in person can be called up, the rest may not appear at the military enlistment office. Therefore, it is very easy to avoid the draft, just stay at home and do not open door to anyone
How different would it have been if Russia had attacked when Trump was the president? I don't think that Ukraine would have received any support or equipment from the US.
Trump is the same president that had Iran’s top general assassinated in a drone strike. The same guy that cleaned up ISIS and their leadership getting killed. The same guy that bombed Syria’s bases for using chemical weapons.
I think that plays a role in why they may not want to attack with Trump in office.
Funny, he did not attack. Lol. Why do you think that is? He’s smart and knows trump to be a much stronger leader than Biden. Biden even gave Russia the go ahead by saying things like that “a limited military incursion of ukraine would be legal and okay”. And putin conveniently didn’t make any moves on Ukraine after crimea, all the while trump was president, only when we have had weak democrat rulers that say they’re tough and immediately capitulate when challenged. Obamas “red line” lmfao. Ring any bells?
Your opinion doesn't matter, trump is a smart guy, he knows the enemies & he knows what countries to help out
Unless you believe that ‘tRUmP wAS pUTiN’s pUPPeT’, trust that the US won’t let up an opportunity to weaken one of it’s rivals regardless of who’s in the White House.
After all, they continued to support/train Ukrainian forces during the war in the Donbass during Trump’s tenure and he warned Germany to cut it’s gas dependence on Russia at the UN.
You could even argue that without Biden’s energy policy, the US would be in a better place to supply Europe’s needs which would make Putin’s weaponisation of oil & gas less effective.
Yes, he would have to pay back his depths regarding the manipulation of the elections.
Love your analysis of how the battles are planned. So realistic
Lol u listened to him but not any teacher 8n 12 years of school 🤣🤣🤣
Thanks a lot for this explanation. It is clear and straight to the point.
Excellent summary and very informative; Slava Ukraine !!
Except..
You think Russians did not know this was coming?
The draw back from Kharkiv was very likely in part readiness for the mobilisation, that would have been in the works for weeks, if not months.
RGS also very likely waiting for the SCO meeting at Samarkand to discuss with important friends and allies.
Kharkiv, they were facing basically armed police. No trap. Punched empty air with big losses.
Kherson, facing regular army. AFU massacred with huge losses.
Don't get too sure you understand what Russia can do or even what was going on.
Not really too up to date though. Usual proUkraine propaganda.
Give away is the ignorance over Kyiv early on.
Russians HELD outside the city as negotiations were held, successfully at first.
Ukraine and Russian would both have gained significant benefits if these were ultimately successful. In fact, the initial draw back from Kyiv was after initial agreement was reached.
But. then Washington neocons sent their UK messenger puppy dog Johnson to tell Zelensky to withdraw from talks, which he did.
The rest is history.
And this information is deeply flawed.
@@therzal the information is not flawed at all, its perfectly accurate, russia is in shambles, doesnt matter if its a trap for ukraine, they will still lose
Your narrative and catalog of events is well organized and easy to follow. Excellent. Regards.
Easy is for the mediocre.
Good video, thanks. Really good maps for understanding the geography and military strategy issues and the. How they affect overall political/war issues.
Love this video, it's content AND the way it was delivered..
Very good and comprehensive analysis.
Phase 3, I believe AC/DC wrote a prophetic song about that:
*_"A Whole Lotta Himars!"_*
Good analysis of Ukraine army counter offensive is here..
ruclips.net/video/ueVccOhQ7C8/видео.html
@@ramonandrajo6348 Cope and seethe
Iranian Drones are the answer to them. Ukraine has no answer to them at all.
@@Vedioviswritingservice As I understand these Iranian drones are much slower than a rocket (I guess all drones are) I suspect the HIMARS will always be long gone when the drone finally arrives. These trucks don't exactly stick around after firing.
Very informative! One of the few videos I’ve seen with an objective assessment of what’s going on there. Thanks for this.
Many good content on RUclips, he is never been there, not that good, there are better channels!
WOW!!! well done sir!!!! The part where you explained how pushing Russian forces back can work in Russias favor because their forces not only have to defend smaller areas but their forces are also collectively grouped. I frikn love that you pointed this out.. Do you have a military background? I want to know more about you..
As a Chilean, I only feel sorry and grief for Ukrainian people when seeing the invasion launched by my ancestral state. I hold no grievance against Russia as it is my ancestral country, but Putin has turned Russia into a hell hole place, full of hatred and resentment.
well, luckily Ukraine is also russian.
Does your grief extend to the Ukrainians the live in the Donbass that have shelled for the past eight years by the Ukrainian Army? Or is it only certain Ukrainians lives that matter?
@@Vedioviswritingservice really still tryna push this old ass shit? can you at LEAST make it interesting ffs
@@Vedioviswritingservice the shelling has travelled both ways.
@@dcv5000 Ukraine, including most of the Russian speaking parts and their Russian speaking President have said clearly that they don't want to be Russian. They also don't want to live under Putler.
Can't get enough of your lines on maps!
Excellent analysis and well-explained. It's perhaps unfortunate that so much has changed in the hours since you posted this. Or maybe it fortune smiling on you that you have new content hand delivered before this one could get old. Either way, I look forward to your update.
You mean video met your political interests and expected propagandic value.
@@andoriannationalist3738 right... because truth can only come from autocratic regimes who own and control the media and silence their critics, as opposed to democracies that enshrine freedom of speech for everybody including ignorant trolls like you.
I knew Russia was screwed when they sent their tanks in with spray painted markers like Z which isn't even in the Russian alphabet by the way. Third world countries have more professional paint jobs on their tanks than they do!
@@jonathanperry8331 Russia is winning, bro. The Western gov is legally allowed to lie to you using the western media/press.
@@jonathanperry8331 its not a paintjob, its a mark of identification to avoid friendly fire, those are usually crude.
Presentation of material on highest level
Interesting analysis. Winter will suck for Russian troops that aren’t well fed and lacking cold-weather equipment. Even a mild winter in that country is brutal if you have to live in the elements. If I was a Ukrainian commander I would go after their supply. That’s pretty much what the Ukrainians have been doing a great job of since the beginning of this “ special military action”. Also the Ukrainians can also park the tanks and fight an infantry war if the soil turns to soup. Mules and other draft animals can deal with mud and mountain terrain. If Ukrainians can eliminate Russian anti-aircraft assets then using helicopters is an option.
Strike hold!
The average temperature in Russia is much lower than in Ukraine. Weapons and protection are designed for this.
Attacking Russia's supply lines has been key for Ukraine. I believe that is why the main counterattack came near Kharkiv and not Kherson in the south. Russian forces in Kherson are already struggling with logistics issues and that front has remained comparatively static. By contrast, there is a massive highway and rail line between Lyssychansk and Sievierodonesk in the north. If Ukraine takes and manages to hold those, they control the northeast theatre and essentially strangle the already struggling Russian logistics lines. Russia is already having great difficulty in keeping its troops fed. Putin calling up an additional 300,000 reservists may exacerbate this further.
Having been on the defense during maneuvers in the middle of winter in Scandinavian country, sitting in a hole freezing your ass off waiting is not enjoyable, especially if they don't want to be there in the first place and haven't been issued cold weather equipment.
why not beg for supplies?
Surrender Cards. Ingenious and seem to be gaining momentum.
Hi William - this was great. Thanks for putting this together.
Buy my book please william
I hope Ukraine gets Crimea back. I think back to when Russia Stole it and annexed it from Ukraine and I really wish alley nations supported Ukraine to defend from losing it. They could simultaneously cut off the north access routes so leaving all the rest of Russia's troop's seemingly on a logistical island.
Lol.
Ukrainians are trapped at the river. No helicopters. Zalujnyi is begging for help.
Morning news. Not BS propaganda...
You couldn't find your ass if your boyfriend george sorros helped you.
Crimea people speak Russian , feels Russian..It's not a war between UkrainevsRussia , it's USA+AlliesVSRussia ..The purpose is to weak Russia and the final target is China.
@Dean Clark Russia should have claimed it right after the USSR broke up. They didn't and accepted the borders for almost a quarter century... Too late!
@Dean Clark You obviously know nothing about history. Not only does Crimea belong to Ukrain but Rusia signed a treaty where they agread that it belonged to Ukrain. There is no legal grounds for it to belong to anyone else.
The main success of the kharkiv offensive was the recapture of Iszym, a strategically important road junction, which will undoubtly cause logistical issues for the remaining soldiers on the eastern front
Thank you for this Video. Slava Ukraina!!!
The most detailed explanation i have seen up to now.Thank you.
It's fantasy reporting..
@@RepusAmgine You are reported to RUclips for spamming blatant Russian disinformation.
@@DUCKDUCKGOISMUCHBETTER typical nonsense when you don't agree with someone.. go tell teacher.. pathetic...
@@RepusAmgine You are reported to RUclips again for doubling down on your Russian disinformation.
@@DUCKDUCKGOISMUCHBETTER go away you clown...
From what I've gathered so far, ukrainian forces relied heavilly on light vehicles (eg. HMMWV) for their counter offensive with great success. We'll see how the mud will influence their operations. Anyway, great video ^^
Russia still currently has rail access from the North through Troit'ske, although I expect the Ukrainians will be trying to close that off soon as they can. Access from the East will remain pretty solid with several rail feeders into the North Donest'sk and Southern Luhan'sk region and is unlikely to be threatened any time soon.
It is funny how everyone is forgetting, winning a battle is not winning a war. Just because you own at the beginning doesn't mean you will win till last.
A very informative and well done thank you the coverage of this has dropped dramatically as of late
Good video but I have few quibbles. Putin attacked at end the of winter/start of mud season. Winter will come and it may be distant help to Ukraine due to rivers freezing. Tanks, especially Russian ones, have wide treads to distribute their weight and have much lower psi than supply trucks. Really hard to predict what affect mud season might have the war. Putin may want another 137,000 troops but he didn't initiate a draft so I doubt this will have much effect. To make matters worst he raided his training units to form new combat units making that much more difficult to generate anything better than cannon fodder.
Ukrainian tanks too, since Ukrainian tanks are similar to Russian ones
ya, I wonder WHAT recruits Putin thinks he is going to generate here. The trainers are in combat or dead already, arming them is obviously a problem, and how motivated would they be anyway? What happened to the third army they trained and deployed? I hear it is already degraded to 'defense only" if not worse.
Frostbite in ru soldiers happened back in feb and march.
Try driving w green feet.
They're relaxing the recruiting and starting to hire mercenaries... this is not the move of a country with a big pool of potential soldiers to throw into the grinder.
@@jevinliu4658 u got it twisted so badly.
Ukraine uses Russian tanks...they originated from Russia.
Now that Russia attacked Ukraine illegal and morally...they fight each other with same equipment.
Finally, it's Russian troops abandoning their tanks...and Ukrainian troops are commandeering them. Ukrainians are driving abandoned Russia tanks...not other way around.
Great analysis and unbiased commentary and outlook on possibilities facing both sides… only hope it comes to an end sooner rather than later…
Perfect job! Love how they tried several times to get your ID.
I heard the soft ground also makes artillery less effective, because it digs into the goeund and absorbs a lot of the fragments. I saw an interview with a Swedish volunteer for ukraine and he was saying that
WW1 would prove you wrong also they never had VT fuses
@@leehotspur9679 I read a book from a soldier on the eastern front in WW2 that also mentioned being saved by the mudbowl reducing artillery effect. Its not quite like shooting a bullet into water but mud does decrease the effectiveness somewhat.
Love the video reality at it's BEST ! Very factual info thank you !
Great , factual, objecive analysis!
The road and railroad bridges at Chongar Strait, at the path from Melitopol to Crimea will become very important in the near future. I anticipate that Ukraine will take the best advantage of this bottleneck.
I was thinking this myself Robit. It could make worse one of Russia's larger problems. Ther logistics and supply for this has been almost a joke. Especially when they seemed to plan on a 7 day war that's in its seventh month.
Love the graphics!!!! super cool video!!
Thanks, I've been working to get better with them!
Very good video about the background of ukrainean success.
Thanks
You sir are on your way to a well deserved 200k subs 🎉. Super based 😎👍
Never underestimate your enemy
Slava Ukraini! Glory to Ukrainian fighters! The world salutes you and love you as heroes of this present world! The rest of freedom loving countries relying on your soonest victory! God be your strength, your shield and your victory!--- Philippines for Ukraine.
Hi from Irish Rep ─William ,heres what i suggest will occur ,if russian keeps on losing like they have been even with sending xtra troops ,one of those large Nuclear plants will be hit by Russia who will blame kiev ,or say it was a accident .No need for putin to use nukes at all .
Hey mate, really enjoying your videos. I was wondering that considering your research of nuclear weapons what your opinion on Ukraine's decision to hand over it's nuclear weapons to Russia in 1994 and if there was really a viable alternative (could they realistically have maintained nuclear weapons at that time etc.)
I mean theoretically the weapons belonged to Russia/Soviet Union the whole time, also most likely a false promise of being left alone
@@AbusiveHD possession is 9/10ths of the law. This generally holds true for nominal property disputes and judicial proceedings. These are nuclear weapons. If Ukraine said “no, we are keeping them. What are you going to do about it?”
I think it’s obvious that it was a HUGE mistake to give them all back in exchange for “security guarantees” which neither the US nor Russia upheld their commitments.
If Ukraine had nukes, Russia would not have control of any Ukrainian territory today, period.
@@AbusiveHD once the ussr broke up, whatever they left behind wasn't theirs anymore.. Poland had many nukes there when the ussr broke up and Poland still has those nukes
You can have billions of soldiers if you want but they need equipment they dont have and cant replace due to sanctions. They also need training, but a lot of the best trainers are dead already and they will need food and water, which will be a pain to get in Kherson. Hard to say what a good move for them would be, considering the disastrous cost its already taken.
????? Putin has won!
Ukrainians are trapped at the river. No helicopters. Zalujnyi is begging for help.
Morning news. Not BS propaganda...
@@monaliza3334 link?
"putin has an incentive to end the special operation, begin the war and call for a mobilisation"
Well that was prophetic (or rather you did your research well). We'll have to see how much Ukraine can do before the mobilisation is complete, but I hope they can eventually retake all of Ukraine
I love the fact that he can mention something in a video in the past, and then not that much later it comes into effect. In this video it was the brief mention of Nordstrom pipeline. In the 10 outcomes of the war video it was the gamble for resurrection outcome he predicted which he said Putin was doing since he declared a draft.
Now the Crimean bridge
Thank you for great and useful information!!
Great video
tGreat information made easy to understand. Thanks for all your video's.
Greetings from Brazil, excellent analysis! As protests in Russia apparently result in arrest, but being recruited can result in being crippled or killed, I believe many Russians will prefer to protest and I think this will generate a lot of political instability for Putin.
These are not reservists protesting, but usual opponents.
it is RESERVISTS who will get called up.
Get a grip.
@@therzal no need to be RUDE! so what a mistake was made? YOU get a grip!!
@@tamaraponomareff8214 It's antiRussian propaganda.
That is the mistake!
Well thought out and explained. Let's hope Russia's recent inner turmoil re: partial mobilization helps screw up their ability to defend in the Eastern states.
Excellent analysis!
USA: We Need a weapons against Russia.
HIMARS: Hi
USA: not u
HIMARS: I am literally the guy in the pic!
I was always rooting for Ukraine since Russia really had no justification to start a war. The started the invasion amid a pandemic. This was a war nobody wanted except Putin and his lackeys. Also Putin remains in his office issuing orders while Zelensky was among his soldiers and rejected the offer to leave his country. A king that fights his battles. From a comedian to a brave president. Ukraine is lucky.
you need to increase your medication its not working
It's interesting that you mentioned "A Bridge To Far". 78 years ago This past Saturday to Next Sunday Sept 25 Operation Market Garden. It was a failure as you know. Russia have bit off way more than they can chew. Drafting youngmen and giving them a week of training is not going to save them from losing the war. In my opinion they already have lost the war back when they failed to take and hold Hosimel Airport. I think they are really hoping for the "mud". Things can go static, with no much movement or shooting. This would give them time to marshall up replacements and stuff and in the deep of winter say mid December if the ground is frozen enough, try to do what Germany tried to do in December of 1944. That is all they can do at this point one more roll of the dice the problem is that they can't hide it. So they will just continue to slug it out till Ukraine breaks, or that what they want,. The Ukrianians are not going to break nor will the outside support dry up, to many are fully committed. Other than that I don't know what the tea leaves will for tell.
Like the Germans, the Russians lacked the proper gear to face Mother Winter last year. Can they rectify that mistake in time for the 2022-23 version of Mother Dearest? Hmm.
Very impressive work! Great narrative, always a hint of drama. But mostly compelling clarity.
The computer is auto generating humans when I summon them. That means alongside the music it's auto generating an showing me how it can auto generate videos; the probability these videos; especially with no face to give credit to; are being auto generated. So you seem confused. An the computers narrative isn't original / "great". It's old an generic an played out as i knew it 40 years ago
LOL I love how you 'blame' Trump and 'praise' Biden. The Biden-Haris regime should hire you!
Ok?
@@UnavailableHandle. i mean, what's the point of blaming trump for something he didnt do? and why praise biden when he's the one whose son has interests in ukraine (cough cough le gas cough)
Putin manipulated the elections in favour of Trump - and he knew why
It's an amazing wellput together presentation... I can see very clearly...
One thing is generally true and it is that Putin and his war machine have exhibited huge miscalculations that have put them in their present bind and on their back foot. It's not reasonable to think that this will change very significantly given the various hamstrings that the Russian forces are dealing with be them logistical, moral, leadership or whatever. They're sort of batting 100% as keystone cops notwithstanding the brutal indiscriminate terror they've unleashed on Ukraine. Despite this, many experts (not all) seem to agree that t's only a matter of time before the Russians are chased out of Ukraine. Whether such an outcome of the war brings Putin down or not is anyone's guess. One thing is for sure and it is this: the west/NATO need to arm Ukraine to the teeth, especially with long-range precision artillery. Ukraine is a civilized country who adheres to the norms of war and given its ambitions to join the EU, the west/NATO can count on them to limit their assault on Russian territory proper to strategic assets with strict avoidance of civilian populations and infrastructure. Your analaysis, William is great. Keep up the good work!
An excellent unbiased analysis and view of possible future scenarios showing just how complex and unpredictable military conflicts are.
Excellent presentation
9:46 Small note: Rasputitsa is the Russian name. Ukrainians call it Bezdorizhzhia.
Great video. Thanks for posting.
Thanks
Well done. Insightful.
Well, now the bridge to crimea is also…“structurally challenged“.
Very informative and useful video. Thanks for sharing.
Very interesting and informative. Thank you.
Very informative and really we got a clear picture Thanks
Brilliant analysis - thank you
I suspect they'll try to hold on to as much of the coast as they can and then he will declare it the true objective / victory he will originally wanted which of course isn't the case. I hope Ukraine is able to push them all the way out but it would be very costly.
WELL DONE!!
Great video. Appreciate the content. New subscriber
great presentation
Brilliant journalism!