There is no climate emergency. Globally the ACE index (accumulated cyclone energy) 1980-2021 shows no increasing trend. Global Hurricane Landfalls 1970-2021 (updated from Weinkle et al, 2012) shows no trend. Satellite data since 1980 shows a slight downward global trend for total hurricaine numbers with 2021 being a record low year. The IPCC reports in AR6, chapter 11, "The total global frequency of TC [tropical cyclone] formation will decrease or remain unchanged with increasing global warming (medium confidence)." Not that I really care about what the IPCC says. Multidecadal variability in Atlantic hurricaines is most probably related to the AMO (Vecchi et al, 2021). NOAA data 1851-2021 shows no trend in number of hurricaine landfalls with the record high being 1886. What the data from NOAA SPC shows about tornados: EF1-EF5 (1954-2022) no trend; EF3-EF5 (most destructive) (1954-2022) 50% decline. No EF5s in US since 2013 (a record absence). The Global Land Precipitation Anomaly from AR5 will disappoint with deviations from the average increasing by 0.2% per decade, but if you look at the actual data, it's just very variable over the decades. Drought appears to be decreasing globally (Watts et al, 2018) measured by SPI 1901-2017. For every million people on earth, annual deaths from climate-related causes (extreme temperature, drought, flood, storms, wildfires) declined 98%--from an average of 247 per year during the 1920s to 2.5 in per year during the 2010s. Data on disaster deaths come from (EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, Brussels,Belgium. ) Globally 2000-2019 there was a large decrease in cold-related deaths and a moderate increase in heat-related deaths (Zhao, 2021, Lancet). However, coldwaves are over 9 times more likely to kill than heatwaves, so the overall result is very beneficial. What else? Oh, deserts like the Sahara have shrunk considerably and the Earth has greened by 15% or more in a human lifetime (NASA). The Great Barrier Reef's coral cover has reached the greatest extent ever recorded. On extinction the rate is very low: 900 known lost species for 2.1 million known species in 500 years. At that frequency it will take over 930,000 years to reach 80% extinction of species experienced at the K-T boundary that saw the extinction of the dinosaurs. There is no climate crisis.
All Life is Carbon. All of the Carbon that makes up Life comes from the Atmosphere. The Rhizosphere represents the largest possible Carbon Storage potential of all Living systems on land. Every other ecosystem on land springs from a healthy thriving Rhizosphere. So yes, restoring a complete ecosystem from the Rhizosphere up and encouraging the proliferation of as much Life as possible can very easily avert the Carbon Crisis. But there is a caveat. It will take millions of pairs of hands toiling on 10's of millions of acres of diminished land that used to be productive. It can't be done with technology or through centralized automated systems of fertilizer production. It must be done 5 acres or so at a time by individuals and/or single family units supported by sustainable local production. The reason for this becomes clear when the digestive potential is considered along side the loss or carbon to open air digestion and carbon footprint of re-distribution. You can't break Carbon Negative without building the Rhizosphere up at the source and consistently re-applying a top layer of new organic litter. The convenience of processing organic wastes into worm castings at a centralized production facility looks nice on paper, but the cost increase leaves no motivation for land owners to participate on top of also having an associated carbon footprint that prevents even a perfect system from hitting Carbon Reductive status. Any of these "big projects" being planned to restore natural systems must be fixed squarely on the Rhizosphere or any potential carbon goal they seek to hit will remain permanently out of reach.
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There is no climate emergency. Globally the ACE index (accumulated cyclone energy) 1980-2021 shows no increasing trend. Global Hurricane Landfalls 1970-2021 (updated from Weinkle et al, 2012) shows no trend. Satellite data since 1980 shows a slight downward global trend for total hurricaine numbers with 2021 being a record low year. The IPCC reports in AR6, chapter 11, "The total global frequency of TC [tropical cyclone] formation will decrease or remain unchanged with increasing global warming (medium confidence)." Not that I really care about what the IPCC says. Multidecadal variability in Atlantic hurricaines is most probably related to the AMO (Vecchi et al, 2021). NOAA data 1851-2021 shows no trend in number of hurricaine landfalls with the record high being 1886. What the data from NOAA SPC shows about tornados: EF1-EF5 (1954-2022) no trend; EF3-EF5 (most destructive) (1954-2022) 50% decline. No EF5s in US since 2013 (a record absence).
The Global Land Precipitation Anomaly from AR5 will disappoint with deviations from the average increasing by 0.2% per decade, but if you look at the actual data, it's just very variable over the decades.
Drought appears to be decreasing globally (Watts et al, 2018) measured by SPI 1901-2017.
For every million people on earth, annual deaths from climate-related causes (extreme temperature, drought, flood, storms, wildfires) declined 98%--from an average of 247 per year during the 1920s to 2.5 in per year during the 2010s.
Data on disaster deaths come from (EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, Brussels,Belgium. )
Globally 2000-2019 there was a large decrease in cold-related deaths and a moderate increase in heat-related deaths (Zhao, 2021, Lancet). However, coldwaves are over 9 times more likely to kill than heatwaves, so the overall result is very beneficial.
What else? Oh, deserts like the Sahara have shrunk considerably and the Earth has greened by 15% or more in a human lifetime (NASA).
The Great Barrier Reef's coral cover has reached the greatest extent ever recorded.
On extinction the rate is very low: 900 known lost species for 2.1 million known species in 500 years. At that frequency it will take over 930,000 years to reach 80% extinction of species experienced at the K-T boundary that saw the extinction of the dinosaurs.
There is no climate crisis.
All Life is Carbon. All of the Carbon that makes up Life comes from the Atmosphere. The Rhizosphere represents the largest possible Carbon Storage potential of all Living systems on land. Every other ecosystem on land springs from a healthy thriving Rhizosphere. So yes, restoring a complete ecosystem from the Rhizosphere up and encouraging the proliferation of as much Life as possible can very easily avert the Carbon Crisis.
But there is a caveat. It will take millions of pairs of hands toiling on 10's of millions of acres of diminished land that used to be productive. It can't be done with technology or through centralized automated systems of fertilizer production. It must be done 5 acres or so at a time by individuals and/or single family units supported by sustainable local production. The reason for this becomes clear when the digestive potential is considered along side the loss or carbon to open air digestion and carbon footprint of re-distribution.
You can't break Carbon Negative without building the Rhizosphere up at the source and consistently re-applying a top layer of new organic litter. The convenience of processing organic wastes into worm castings at a centralized production facility looks nice on paper, but the cost increase leaves no motivation for land owners to participate on top of also having an associated carbon footprint that prevents even a perfect system from hitting Carbon Reductive status.
Any of these "big projects" being planned to restore natural systems must be fixed squarely on the Rhizosphere or any potential carbon goal they seek to hit will remain permanently out of reach.
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