I really love the idea that Wyman Manderly watches his weight to not participate directly on the battlefields so he could play to his real strengths. I think that's genius. Great vid, got a subscriber out of me :)
+Alex Park In theory yes but I dunno, that theory does have its downsides. Wouldn't he just be eating himself to an early grave during a fairly peaceful decade after Robert's ascension without any real wars going on, so nothing there to avoid? Unless he saw the war coming beforehand I guess which would support the theory of him working with Littlefinger, but still I don't know, it seems too convenient.
+Cocoa99 I guess this depends on whether the people living in this world conceive of personal health in the way we do today where we understand that obesity can lead to a variety of health issues down the road, such as cardiac disease, etc. I'm guessing this is doubtful. Also, wars in this world can spring up from a variety of reasons and it's not like Manderly would have advance notice to start stuffing himself and gain weight so he doesn't have to go to war; he's gotta maintain a certain weight so that he always has his excuse ready.
Most of the GoT channels seem to watch each others videos for inspiration, but don't cite the other channel as the inspiration for their own video on a subject. You did, citing Preston, then laid out a video that had an original premise, that more channels should take note of - that trade is the most frequent motivation for conflict in any society. Very well done, you've earned a subscriber. Have you considered that Manderly might be intending to marry Sansa to one of his sons, thereby gaining legitimacy in the eyes of the other Northern lords, and gaining the power for his own family without the time limit of a regency? Just a thought 😃
I'm not to savvy on the books but I don't believe that northerners know that baelish has sansa hidden in the vale as he's parading her as her bastard daughter and she is using a different name. In the show we have yet to see manderly although I've heard he might appear this season and I doubt the show would go in that direction
+Michael Coulter Wyman only has one surviving son, who is married. He does have some granddaughters who could be married to a Stark male. But I think that whatever marriage is negotiated with a ruler of winterfell will be negotiated by whoever ends up being King of the 7 Kingdoms. That's far too powerful of a marriage for the king to not be involved.
AnAmericanThinks Lol, I'm re-reading the books, and trying to re-watch the shows in preparation for the next season, looks like I'd better get on with it! I've enjoyed both theory videos so far, keep up the good work!
Trade isn't the most frequent motivation for conflict, it is the opposite. That's why European countries stopped warring each other, because they started trading with each other more.
House Manderly has to be by far my favorite of the "lesser" noble houses in the series. After giving this a listen, I'm even more convinced of that. You sir, have earned my future viewings.
My thoughts exactly. He did a great job using economics to support his theory. I love stuff like this. It would be really cool if George added some additional economics related info in the next book.
+AnAmericanThinks This is a good video. I like it a lot, you focused on the economics of the story, rather than making wild leaps in logic and potraying everyone as power-hungry, just as many people in the world of ASoIaF are greedy for money as much as power. Just as many people want to be House Lannister 2.0 rather than House Targaryen 2.0. No offense intended to Preston Jacobs, he catches some things I miss, but when Preston doesn't fill in gaps, he leaps over them to construct his theories. I think the other phrase to remember is something OTHER people said regarding House Stark. From Maester Luwin, to all the vassal houses (besides Bolton), and even Catelyn to Rob, have at least uttered the phrase once 'there must always be a Stark in Winterfell'. My thought process: The North has always been a military threat in the 7 Kingdoms , even during Aegon's conquest. Aegon brought all the other Kingdoms, and all 3 dragons to deal with the North, or convince them to surrender. It worked, but realize what that means. All the other kingdoms combined with 3 giant dragons and 3 (possibly magic wielding) Valyrians with magic swords... For one Kingdom? And only then did they 'bend the knee'? Not only that, but we see that even in times of Chaos that the North can field an army of size and strength that rivals that of the Lannisters and the Stormlands, possibly even combined. (Both Stannis and Tywin were equally intimidated by Rob's army.) Yet the Starks never really leave Winterfell, or seek conquest or glory, not like the Iron Born. The Starks seem content to manage, adjudicate, and 'rule' the North. They are not the wealthiest house, or even that wealthy. They make sure everyone has what they need, and that no one is screwing other people over. I think all the other houses at one time envied house Stark because of that power it grants them, but they see that with the Boltons in power, the 'balance' of power in the North is tilted. I think some people want the status quo back, and want to eliminate one of the houses that attempted to alter it. Sure, at one point Wyman probably thought 'hey I could totally rule the North and make even more money' but then after seeing the Boltons rise to power, and the targets that immediately got painted on their backs because of it, realizes the best way to make money and control power is to not be the guy at the top. Something the Starks probably realized thousands of years ago. Other little hints that come are some of the philosophy of ruling Ned leaks and teaches his sons... 'The man that passes judgement should be the one to swing the sword.' Etc. That concept that ruling, keeping the peace, and keeping the status quo so that no one is really in control over the other houses directly is what seemed to run the North for thousands of years. And it was only the unlawful killing of Starks by Southerners that could rile them up enough to rally behind the Starks. Imagine if Ned/Rob had attempted to call in the banners as soon as they 'figured out' it was Tyrion that had attempted to assassinate Bran, and to march on King's Landing or Casterly Rock. The North would have been like 'um, wtf, no? handle that your damn selves'. But attempting to kill the family that has done a great job ruling the North for thousands of years? 'Oh fuck no son, they let us do what we want, and now we want to fuck you up for fucking with them.' It seems to be a very Libertarian system in the North. And right now, with the Bolton's in power, it is no longer a Free Market based on competition.
I know, right Ramon Suarez? GRRM is the best at leaving cluez! Some of Patchfaces prophecies have already happened, like the red wedding one, "Fool's blood, King's blood, blood on the maiden's thigh, but chains for the guest, and chains for the bridegroom, aye, aye, aye" but there is one that Patchface said up at the Wall: "I will lead it! We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will blow seashells to announce our coming". I've no clue what it means, but it sounds like foreshadowing the battle for the Dawn to me. What do you think it could be? :)
Di Cleverly Funny, I've been thinking about that particular prophecy after your Sir Manderly/Davos Seaworth post reignited my unhealthy Patchface prophecy obsession (He's the key to the whole thing, damnit!). The quote, "Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh" makes it seem like the War of the Dawn will he super-epic. But what if its not supposed to be taken literally but figuratively in the way "mermen feasting on starfish soup" isn't really about actual mermen but Manderly's devouring Boltons? In this interpretation an invasion/"coming" of Stannis forces will come with Manderly support on Valeryan (Seahorse sigil) ships? Aurane Waters, a Valeryan bastard, has a nice big naval fleet, thanks to Cersei. He abandoned the Lannisters when he heard she was imprisoned and his house was allied with Stannis in the War of Five Kings....
Let's not forget the possibility of Jon as well. Robb did name him as his legal heir in his will before the Red Wedding. Assuming the will made it north, and there is no reason to believe it didn't. Once Jon is revived he is technically Jon Stark, King in the North. At least according to the last will of the previous Stark king, and thereby any house still loyal to the Starks. Such as Umber and Manderly.
I find it really hard to like asoiaf/got RUclipsrs, most of them are overrated hacks who pander to the show watching crowd, have no new original ideas, and just read the wiki and the subreddit and that's how they get their content, but you and Preston are one of the few that I can still get behind.
I'd seen this video a year ago or something and I was reminded of it today due to the importance of rivers in a documentary about real-life that I just watched and I spent about an hour or more trying to find this video again. I think that should tell people something about how interesting I thought it was. Mostly because the economics underlying these ideas just feel like they're just drenched in Martin's thinking and real-life economics and their effect on history. Which I think is a way of looking at the series that a lot of youtubers really only superficially address.
My expectation is that the last river is the border between the Karstark holdings and the Bolton holdings. Thus also adding it being a contested border between two houses as part of the reason why they won't really be a trade hub, likely double the interference from local lords looking to make a quick buck.
Typically I don't sub to theory makers or anything similar due to clogging up the list of content makers I watch often. However, this is so well done I have elected to ignore that and you have earned another sub today. Very well done Ser.
Great video! Love the idea that Wyman can control all four rivers. I see him supporting the Starks as well. If he chooses to support Rickon (which makes the most sense), he can then marry Wynafryd or Willa to Rickon and solidify his position in the North. Wyman is in my top two favorite show snubs (the other being the Rooster, Jon Connington). Hope we get to see him in action next season. His son was at the Red Wedding in the show, and it seems they're doing a lot of North Remembers, so we have a chance to see him!
+mike cassady While I do enjoy the show, I've always known I wouldn't enjoy it as much as the books. There's simply no way a TV show can capture so much subtlety. But I think HBO is doing as good of a job as anyone can. Thanks for watching!
This is a brilliant assessment of what's happening in the North as far as the books are at. I love this video - please keep producing more. This was really detailed and thought provoking, you stayed on topic and, well, looking forward to the next. Thank you
Manderley can maintain control over Rickon longer than just being regent. He has two granddaughters he can marry to Rickon and control the North that way.
I like the perspective of this video. Economics is a driving force of the game of thrones, and I think it is often overlooked. It also reveals some of the motivations of Roose Bolton other than him being a sociopath. It lays a practical groundwork for a Manderly/Umber conspiracy as well. You mentioned Manderly's cunning in tricking Roose Bolton, but I think it's implied in Dance of Dragons that Roose is very aware of Manderly's deceit. He puts the Manderlys and Umbers on the front lines when he counterattacks Theon's rescuers.
I would love to know your angle on how Stannis thinking Manderly killed Davos will affect the up coming story. Remember, Stannis isn't aware that Davos isn't dead... He says in Dance: "I sent my knight to parley with Lord too fat and where is he now?" That issue could cause a huge wedge in Manderly's master plan...
Wow, six years later and finally someone pointed this out to me! Amazing observation! I wish I could have addressed this in the original video, or even the follow-up. It ties in beautifully with everything going on here, and the interplay between the Manderly and Hornwood families.
@@anamericanthinks472 Agreed! Sorry it hasn’t come up sooner! I’ll have to check out the follow-up as well! Wanted to ask your opinion about a geographic question if you have a minute: Why does no one try to build a port on the east side of the Neck south of Moat Caitlin? The quickest way across Westeros east to west is by the Twins and the Freys would certainly contribute to such an effort. Though it seems like the Vale owns the area in question and terrain likely doesn’t support it. But still. Seems geographically efficient as a trade route.
Well done! The Manderlays were always my favourite side side characters and I can't wait for them to become more central to the story. As a Jew I just love the narrative of a merchant family that gets exiled from their homes and just rebuilds themselves stronger than before somewhere else. Also being the only southerner Lord in the North, being culturally different than his surroundings.
+Maxben L Thanks, glad you enjoyed it! I really like the Manderly's as well; I come from a business background, so anything that has to do with economics catches my attention.
Just found this- very, very intriguing. Economics and power go together nicely. I now am thinking Manderly is planning ahead. Sansa could be paired up with one of his sons...thank you for an excellent video!
Hi I just stumbled on to one of your videos only watched 2 vids so far and you already mentioned 4 out of 6 of my got youtubers,and now I have 7 .You make great videos and I'm subscribing thanks.
Its no secret that events transpire in accordance to parallels in history. I think that this situation looks very similar to Francia c. 750; meaning that a dynasty of kings revered not only for the title they held but for the history of the house (merovingians/Starks), are essentially dying out. By this I mean that a child is left as the head of the dynasty. I think that GRRM will play out events in the north like this period in Frankish history, the 2nd most powerful house will act as de-facto wardens of the north through Rickon's regency. Eventually a descendent of Wyman will 'usurp' the title and rule as wardens of the north and we will see a Charlemagne-like figure. The prerequisite for this theory being that Reckon will be reinstated as the Lord of Winterfell.P.S. loved the video
Good vid, I always thought that Roose was a "evil" just because he looks like Hannibal (Mads), but you put a pretty interesting and valid theory here, I'm studying history and yes, this shit happens mostly for socioeconomics and geopolitics that are not easy to see in the bare eye.
Growing season advantages are negated somewhat by the geophysics of Planetos. The only planting season that will be shorter, should be the last one prior to winter, rather than a yearly disadvantage, and perhaps winter abates last further north.
In places that you say, "you can see-"'or anything about let's say, timber, town or mouth of some river or another, I'd love to see some identification marks. That'll be a little more tech, but would be so fun to watch.
Good stuff, like the trade & resource perspective, which is usually the most important part of conquering & power plays. Good on you for noting the 2 other utube ice & fire channels I watch, Preston Jacobs & Rawrist! Can't wait to check out 1000 worlds, I just prefer hard copies over digital.
Another great vid. I'm glad to be one of your early subscribers and be able (I guess priviledged) to watch your channel grow. A dozen videos down the line you'll then ask for patreon support to fund an hd web cam or something. Just calling it.☺
Holy shit. That torturous sound is in THIS video too! Man. These are SUCH GOOD VIDEOS. You have such a knack for narration and are obviously able to make great videos. Only to have it ruined by that damn tapping. UGH
15:54 The other big reason why House Manderly can't openly proclaim themselves rulers in the North is the fact that they are originally a southern house and still follow the Faith of the Seven.
I happen to believe that lord Wyman is actually a diehard Stark loyalist. Reading what he says about the debt the Manderlys owe the Starks, ..."a debt that can never be repaid." sends shivers down my spine every time I read it. I also feel Wyman realizes that the will no longer be a King in the north, and that he wants Rickon to merely be a lord and warden of the north, perhaps marrying one of lord Wyman's granddaughters.
+Yos Facej He might be a true Stark loyalist; if so that would be a nice change from the status quo of virtually every character in ASOIAF. I'm merely pointing out that he has SIGNIFICANT economic incentive to be a "Stark loyalist", or at least, to pay lip service to being a Stark loyalist and encourage others to do the same.
I like it. Although my current view is that Manderly has built himself as the numerically largest Northern army and navy. He is already in charge of a city 100,000 strong. He has been accepting refugees from Hornwood and other lands that the Boltons have plagued. And when Davos is in White Harbor he hears that Manderly's barracks have been accepting anyone who can wield a sword/spear if they want to pick up a little extra silver (and you can't possibly tell me that 300 men is all Manderly can bring to Winterfell for Roose). Manderly has 23 war galleys hidden in White Harbor and acknowledges to Davos that he has more hidden up the White Knife. I foresee him bringing to bear ~5,000-7,000 (swollen with the city's and refugees recruits) and ~50 war galleys being used in the Battle for Winterfell. I believe that Stannis will defeat the Frey's, slip into Winterfell disguised as Frey's and force the Boltons out. Roose will make a break for the Dreadfort but run into Manderly's force that has used the war galley's to run up the White Knife and cut him off. Roose will be captured by Manderly. The North will rally behind a resurrected Jon and hope to fight the Others.
+Praetorian Gaming I've seen these numbers; but I refer here to 23 war galleys because a POV character has physically had eyes on them. If Manderly really has ~50 war galleys, then so much the better. I'm sure he's a significant land power as well, but there are lot of nobles in the North trying to compete on land. Where Manderly really has the advantage is naval power, where no one can come close to matching him. Also, war galleys are not good river ships; if he really wanted to control the rivers he should have built longboats. War Galleys are better for sea power; but with as many War Galleys as Manderly has, he can make sure nobody uses and of the southeasterly rivers if he doesn't want them to.
AnAmericanThinks True, but I assume that the White Knife is large enough to fit war galley's. We also don't have a size description so the Westeros definition of war galley might be different than what we might think. Obviously the dromonds that are built for Tommen's Royal Navy (and then spirited away by Aurane Waters) would not do well on rivers, but we haven't really seen war galleys in action, so therefore it could be plausible that they can navigate the White Knife. I mean, he has already hidden some up the White Knife, they're already presumably halfway there. And it isn't Manderly's army that will allow him to cut off the Boltons. It's his navy. But alas, we won't know till we get our hands on Winds of Winter. Great vid man!
+Praetorian Gaming I generally agree that dromonds>war galleys>galleys>longboats. And White Harbor is located somewhat upstream on the White Knife and isn't directly on the ocean, so I certainly agree that war galleys can go up the White Knife at least some distance. Really, any ship can fit in any body of water so long as it has the draft to do so. But more importantly than that, a ship has to realistically be able to turn in whatever body of water it is in, otherwise it becomes useless. Assuming that longboats in ASOIAF are equivalent of the Viking knarrs, these ships were exceptionally versatile because they have a very shallow draft and were highly maneuverable, so they made excellent use of rivers. Dromonds and war galleys are historically ramming ships; they are longer and wider, to fit more oarsmen, and the oars themselves are longer for better leverage; hence they are better for ramming, and can better dominate the open seas, but are far less useful in the close confines of a river. Additionally, all rivers become smaller and shallower the farther you go upstream, so with the White Knife these problems become worse the farther North you go. Of course, we have little enough detail on the White Knife as it is, so whether the river is sufficiently deep and wide to fit these ships is unknown. I'm certainly if GRRM wants them to fit, they will certainly fit :) I'm glad you enjoyed the video, and thanks for the excellent comments.
nice theory, and it makes a lot of sense as it gives Rickon a better role than the one of bait. too bad the show writers only introduced the Manderlys until the season finale where all of this is unvalid (in the show at least) except the part that they have complete control of the economy now that the Boltons are gone
5 лет назад+3
OMG! You figured how and why Manderly is so fat, makes total sense! I wonder if there is any real world historical figures done the same in the past?
wow nice vid mate, would love to see Stannis put Rikkon in Winterfell and Manderly run the trade, Just have to get through the battle first and be rid of the Boltons as they drown in the frozen lake
+Lee Hanney Glad you enjoyed it! You won't find much love for the Boltons on this channel. Or in the fandom in general. Or in Westeros for that matter...
Very interesting. I'm really curious about Wyman's war galleys. What does wyman plan to do with them? Hand them over to stannis? Start some naval warfare? Sell them? Use them to fight off pirates from his trade routes? Use them to threaten others (from a politician's point of view)? Or is it a combination of uses? Honestly, to me, none of these options seem likely. These are warships, and as you've pointed out, wyman doesn't do war. Moreover, the Boltons are not likely to rule for much longer. Not sure if the whole family would be wiped out. Also, Wyman seems like the type that would take the boltons down, but might take himself down in the process. I think this because I still wonder why wyman left his heirs behind when he traveled to Winterfell. Additionally, he could have easily died. Also, I don't see how he would be able to take down the boltons. The umbers are a good start, but he would need more alliances, the boltons are too strong I think, especially with the freys present in the north... but again, wyman doesn't do war. I don't dude, curious to see what wyman will do outside the walls of winterfell come winds of winter.
+ahmed kfji Lots of great points. As for the war galleys, they are a fascinating wild card and could be used for any number of things. For example; we know The Others are susceptible to dragon glass, and we know that Stannis was trying to mine dragon glass on Dragonstone until it was taken from him. And in order to retake Dragonstone, you would need a strong fleet, which Stannis doesn't have. Or consider this; Dany is starting to turn her attention toward Westeros (finally), but to invade Westeros she'll need a fleet of warships. It could be that Manderly could supply her with ships. OR, anyone opposing Dany's invasion of Westeros would need a fleet of warships, making Manderly an invaluable ally to have here as well. To say that Wyman Manderly doesn't "do war" is a bit of a stretch. Manderly himself doesn't go to war. But he's had no problem sending people in his stead, and has supplied Robb Stark with troops. Also, bear in mind that Manderly claims he has assembled an army that may well be the biggest army remaining in the North. We also have rumor that the Umbers have assembled a secret army of their own as well. I didn't directly address both of these claims because we haven't actually gotten eyes on these troops and know that they exist for a fact, but if you check out the Radio Westeros link they do a pretty good job of summarizing these rumors. And if we believe that the Manderlys, Umbers, and Stannis are all willing to align to crush the Boltons between them, I have to think the Boltons really don't stand a chance. Particularly if winter is coming (or has already arrived?) and they stand little chance of being reinforced by the Lannisters, or even the Freys for that matter. I also think that it is telling that Wyman left his heir at White Harbor. In fact, Wyman made no moves to execute these plans at all until Wylis is returned to him. I think he went to Winterfell knowing very well that he might die, and took every measure to make sure he had an heir in place before he made his moves.
I love the theories! The only criticism I would offer the Manderly-Stannis theory of Stannis allowing Rickon to be "King in the North." That's not happening. Stannis is completely rigid and in no way would allow any potential usurper even in name only. Stannis the Mannis is taking what is his BY RIGHT! But he probably would grant the Starks their previous Warden in the North status, which would be more than necessary to allow other northern houses to join his cause by his support of a strong house Stark.
Your analysis is extremely well thought through, focused & concise. Excellent presentation! I hope to hear similarly structured 'situational' analyses for ASoIaF 'realities' & events going forward ;) Again great job! Also, thanks for sharing the reference links in the description. BTW, you might like 'The Revenge of Geography' by Robert D. Kaplan (2012) or 'Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin' by Timothy D. Snyder (2010). Both are great and horrifying reads but both helped me see a notion of "history repeats itself " within the constraints and opportunities of the land itself - the permanence of the mountain range or the span of the plain. Mirri Maz Duur's perverse declaration that change will occur "... when the mountains blow in the wind like leaves" seemed even more vile and cruel when I recalled these two books.
Loved the video. My main point of contention being that the shape that an ounce of gold takes definitely defines its value. Currency, including hard currency such as gold coins, hold value on two fronts. There is the value of the raw material, and then the promise of value based on the federal economic state. The best example of this is the US dollar. That square of papery fabric is worth next to nothing, but because the government promises you that it's worth whatever $5 can bet you, that's what it's worth. And the difference in federal economy come more into play when you compare the American dollar to the Canadian dollar. The US dollar bills aren't made of a finer material than the Canadian, but due to international economics the American dollar is worth almost half again what the Canadian is worth right now.
+Alex Heart Thanks for commenting! However, you're comparing this to our modern fiat currency; a commodity-based currency is a far different animal. The value of the currency varies according to the supply/demand for that commodity. The country or entity that minted the coin in question is irrelevant because the gold/silver/etc can easily be chopped up or melted down and turned into jewelry or bullion or whatever.
+AnAmericanThinks It's actually not quite as different as all that. If a coin minted currency were only worth what it were printed in there would be no point of the currency at all. Historically the relevant nation's promise of value still raised the the coins value above or that of neighboring nations. A large amount of the value of a price of currency certainly comes from the material that it's printed on, but not all of it.
+Alex Heart It sounds like you are presenting this from the standpoint of commodity-backed currency such as the US system up until around the 1960s where you have a paper or some other nominal value currency that is theoretically backed by a precious commodity at a promised exchange rate. The system that seems to be in place in the world of Ice and Fire doesn't have this component; the commodity IS the currency; its value is whatever goods or service you are able to get for it. There is no promise of underlying value from the government that minted it. Or are you talking about debasement?
+AnAmericanThinks Sorry ask you to read an article rather than summarize here, but this page conveys my thoughts rather concisely and I have work tomorrow, so I've gotta hit the hay. europeanhistory.boisestate.edu/latemiddleages/econ/banking.shtml
wow incredibly impressed by the thoroughness of this video. I would have to go with the Sansa Stark theory. Littlefinger wants power, he already has a relationship with Sansa and to Sansa's knowledge he is a good person. So it would not shock me that Brienne will save Theon and Sansa in the wilderness of Winterfell and then take her to somewhere where she will meet up with Littlefinger and Davos and they will all work together to unite the North. Part of which will include Peter marrying Sansa and becoming lord of Winterfell and he gets his prize wife that he obviously wants anyway. I don't see the show going too far into the politics of the North really so i doubt we hear much about Mandarlay(sp?) and the economic powers but from the trailers it does look like at the very least Season 6 will be about Sansa uniting the north against the Boltons. What happens after that is anyones guess. But as Davos says, at any moment the dead will come and interrupt all politics.
There is another factor here you may be missing. What if manderly secures a royal decree and puts jon snow on the throne? Manderly is a trader, and war is bad for trade. As such he may want a competent and strong ruler that isn't about to fuck his house over in the near future, as manderly is fat and he is old.
Hmm, think about Weyman Manderly... a stout bearded man with a nautical affinity who is craftily making plans that nobody suspects until the big reveal... kind of sounds like he might be a stand-in character for GRRM, no?
+jdw99 We'll, I've theorized that he's a stand-in for Haviland Tuf from GRRM's Tuf Voyaging series. Who I see as having pretty substantial overlap with GRRM himself. So I guess I don't disagree with you :)
+Vali Rusev If you're watching the show, it must certainly seem so. I make these videos primarily from the perspective of the books, so you will probably find some discrepancies between my theories and the show.
Nice summery , nice analysis and good audio quality. Please continue, I really liked your style of presentation. However I have a question, you said Mannerly would gain control of the Dreadfort and of Harwood lands, if his scheming is successful. Isn't it more likely that the Ubers gain control of the Dreadfort? You showed their interest because of the Last River
+Akainela Good question. To me control of the Weeping Water comes down to two things; control of the Dreadfort (with land forces) and control of the river itself with naval forces. Control of the river is the easiest assumption to make, since the Umbers don't appear to have significant naval forces; in fact, they were complaining to Ser Rodrik that the wildlings were raiding their coasts, so we know that they don't have a sufficient navy to protect themselves against wildlings, much less a rival navy. So the Manderly's with their fleet of ships will almost certainly be able to take control of the river. Control of the Dreadfort would essentially fall to which ever army gets there first. If you go back and look at the map again, the Umbers will either have to march all the way from Winterfell - where we know they have land forces - or they have to march down from Last Hearth, and to do that they have to march all the way around or through a mountain range. Meanwhile, the Manderly's also have forces at Winterfell, but they also have men in the Hornwood who have been skirmishing with Bolton men. So it would be a relatively easy march for them from the Hornwood to the Dreadfort. So I think the Manderly's get there first with naval power and with land power, so they end up getting the Dreadfort.
nice theory. i just wanted to contribute and say that Rikkon is tge most preferable candidate to gain Manderly support as he is a male Stark and may marry Willa Manderly, thus providing control over Stark house from Manderlies.
+Alexander Shorvaev Yes, I understand many believe this line of thinking, but I maintain that whoever marries for control of Winterfell must have the approval of which ever king that controls the 7 kingdoms, since control of Winterfell and the North is far too powerful of a position for the king to not have his say in who gets to marry whom.
+AnAmericanThinks The more reasons to give regency to Manderlies, who are alien to the North, who depend on trading with Kings Landing, and who's economical power is ballanced by military power of other northern houses.
My concern here is that if Stanis dies soon, ala the events of the show in the upcoming set piece battle against the Bolton. I have a feeling that manderly, based on his early interactions, may be content to be the power behind the throne regardless of the Boltons being gone or not. Even if nothing else changes besides that he has seen his family go from barely #1a/1b family to the power broakers in the north by which any decision made by a Stark or any other "ruling house" would have to go through him first.
One of the things that bothered me about Preston's Bravos/Facelessmen video series was his assertion that the ship from Bravos must have been waiting for Arya because salt pans was a minor port compared to gulltown. Yet Salt pans is located at the mouth of the trident which is either the largest or second largest river in westeros, very close to the free cities across the narrow sea; and the only eastern port serving the whole riverlands. A substantial amount of trade must flow through saltpans. On the other hand the largest port in westeros is Oldtown which is located at the mouth of a relatively minor river in the reach; located on the far side of the continent, so that doesn't make much sense either. The riverlands are not as bountiful as the reach; but they certainly have a greater agricultural output than the north; so Saltpans should be at least the size of White Harbor (in volume of trade). The fact that this is not the case suggests that either this is an oversight by GRRM or their is some other factor besides geography that that explains the prosperity of regions in westeros.
+Karl Toth A lot of good thoughts here; I agree with you regarding Saltpans, although I'm not so certain the Riverlands have greater output than the North. I'll talk about this in a follow-up video. Oldtown is a bit of a mystery, and this has occurred to me before as well. It's in a tucked-away little corner of Westeros. I have a few thoughts on this that may come up in a future video as well, but essentially, their trade must not be in agricultural products or resource extraction.
If sigils are a clue, the north's major are wood and fur and the riverlands export a lot of fish. Bravos needs wood and fur, but has plenty of fish. So that might explain the trade deficit. Their is a lot of discussion of fields burning in Clash, so I would think the riverlands grow a lot cereal crops. But the fact that the fields are burning and that the riverlands have a long history of being trampled or controlled by outside powers, might be part of the issue. Or it may simply be that kingslanding is the major market for grain and is more efficient reached by the kingsroad. I definitely think there is a lot to explore in the series regarding economics.
+Karl Toth Ah, this is where we may differ, as I had assumed salt pans referred to the manufacture of the salt itself: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_evaporation_pond
Isn't Jon Snow the obvious Stark to put on the throne? Proven warrior and leader, plus Robb already declared him his legitimate heir in case something happened to him. Aaaand, now that Jon has been dead and resurrected, his vows to the nights watch are also technically void.
Amazing theories, truly. Obviously the Rickon theory seems most plausible, but Arya Stark being persuaded by the Faceless Men to act a proper lady and marry a bannerman? THAT, is some CLASSIC GRRM level cynicism.
If Manderly could rid himself of Stannis and Roose in the upcoming battle that would the North wide open for this plan he has of a Northern kingdom. Under a Stark of course, he just wants to be the North's "Tywin".
On the other coast of th north theres a lot your forgetting. Barrowton which is controlled by house Dustin is one of the only large towns. House Ryswell who controls The Stoney Shore. i don't know if they really pose a true threat but what i am 100% sure about is something is going down with the Ryswells and the Dustins. we also see melisandre mentioning a horse with glowing red eyes, and i believe another character does as well something the Ryswell sigil has
you make solid points, but the truth is, is Stannis could easily just stay on a land battle with the Karstarks and siege white harbor with no problem from all the galleys
+john parks So long as Manderly has galleys he can always reinforce and resupply by sea, and a siege from anyone would be pointless. And Stannis can't afford to still for months or years trying to besiege White Harbor while he still has Boltons and Lannisters to fight. For better or worse Stannis is in the North, and in order for his claim to advance he has to work towards uniting the North, and besieging every town/castle in the North is an extremely slow way to accomplish this goal.
I really love the idea that Wyman Manderly watches his weight to not participate directly on the battlefields so he could play to his real strengths. I think that's genius. Great vid, got a subscriber out of me :)
+Alex Park Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it.
+AnAmericanThinks Imagine Wyman Manderly pulling an Uncle Iroh and revealing himself to be buff as hell. That'd be fun, as improbable as it is.
Hamarbi Ljungskile LOL.
+Alex Park In theory yes but I dunno, that theory does have its downsides. Wouldn't he just be eating himself to an early grave during a fairly peaceful decade after Robert's ascension without any real wars going on, so nothing there to avoid? Unless he saw the war coming beforehand I guess which would support the theory of him working with Littlefinger, but still I don't know, it seems too convenient.
+Cocoa99 I guess this depends on whether the people living in this world conceive of personal health in the way we do today where we understand that obesity can lead to a variety of health issues down the road, such as cardiac disease, etc. I'm guessing this is doubtful. Also, wars in this world can spring up from a variety of reasons and it's not like Manderly would have advance notice to start stuffing himself and gain weight so he doesn't have to go to war; he's gotta maintain a certain weight so that he always has his excuse ready.
This makes so much sense. Remember the siege of Duskendale? That event all began because of Maritime trade.
+Egie Asemota The Defiance of Duskendale started because Lord Darklyn refused to pay his taxes and wanted Duskendale to receive a town charter.
+Praetorian Gaming yes, it was taxes. they once had a profitable port but Kings landing became more profitable and they had less money to pay taxes.
Most of the GoT channels seem to watch each others videos for inspiration, but don't cite the other channel as the inspiration for their own video on a subject.
You did, citing Preston, then laid out a video that had an original premise, that more channels should take note of - that trade is the most frequent motivation for conflict in any society.
Very well done, you've earned a subscriber.
Have you considered that Manderly might be intending to marry Sansa to one of his sons, thereby gaining legitimacy in the eyes of the other Northern lords, and gaining the power for his own family without the time limit of a regency?
Just a thought 😃
I'm not to savvy on the books but I don't believe that northerners know that baelish has sansa hidden in the vale as he's parading her as her bastard daughter and she is using a different name. In the show we have yet to see manderly although I've heard he might appear this season and I doubt the show would go in that direction
+Michael Coulter Wyman only has one surviving son, who is married. He does have some granddaughters who could be married to a Stark male. But I think that whatever marriage is negotiated with a ruler of winterfell will be negotiated by whoever ends up being King of the 7 Kingdoms. That's far too powerful of a marriage for the king to not be involved.
AnAmericanThinks
Lol, I'm re-reading the books, and trying to re-watch the shows in preparation for the next season, looks like I'd better get on with it!
I've enjoyed both theory videos so far, keep up the good work!
+Michael Coulter Thanks! Glad you're enjoying them.
Trade isn't the most frequent motivation for conflict, it is the opposite. That's why European countries stopped warring each other, because they started trading with each other more.
House Manderly has to be by far my favorite of the "lesser" noble houses in the series. After giving this a listen, I'm even more convinced of that. You sir, have earned my future viewings.
Boring fantasy physical geography can turn into awesome political intrigue real fast. Great video.
My thoughts exactly. He did a great job using economics to support his theory. I love stuff like this. It would be really cool if George added some additional economics related info in the next book.
+AnAmericanThinks This is a good video. I like it a lot, you focused on the economics of the story, rather than making wild leaps in logic and potraying everyone as power-hungry, just as many people in the world of ASoIaF are greedy for money as much as power. Just as many people want to be House Lannister 2.0 rather than House Targaryen 2.0. No offense intended to Preston Jacobs, he catches some things I miss, but when Preston doesn't fill in gaps, he leaps over them to construct his theories.
I think the other phrase to remember is something OTHER people said regarding House Stark. From Maester Luwin, to all the vassal houses (besides Bolton), and even Catelyn to Rob, have at least uttered the phrase once 'there must always be a Stark in Winterfell'. My thought process:
The North has always been a military threat in the 7 Kingdoms , even during Aegon's conquest. Aegon brought all the other Kingdoms, and all 3 dragons to deal with the North, or convince them to surrender. It worked, but realize what that means. All the other kingdoms combined with 3 giant dragons and 3 (possibly magic wielding) Valyrians with magic swords... For one Kingdom? And only then did they 'bend the knee'?
Not only that, but we see that even in times of Chaos that the North can field an army of size and strength that rivals that of the Lannisters and the Stormlands, possibly even combined. (Both Stannis and Tywin were equally intimidated by Rob's army.)
Yet the Starks never really leave Winterfell, or seek conquest or glory, not like the Iron Born. The Starks seem content to manage, adjudicate, and 'rule' the North. They are not the wealthiest house, or even that wealthy. They make sure everyone has what they need, and that no one is screwing other people over.
I think all the other houses at one time envied house Stark because of that power it grants them, but they see that with the Boltons in power, the 'balance' of power in the North is tilted. I think some people want the status quo back, and want to eliminate one of the houses that attempted to alter it. Sure, at one point Wyman probably thought 'hey I could totally rule the North and make even more money' but then after seeing the Boltons rise to power, and the targets that immediately got painted on their backs because of it, realizes the best way to make money and control power is to not be the guy at the top. Something the Starks probably realized thousands of years ago.
Other little hints that come are some of the philosophy of ruling Ned leaks and teaches his sons... 'The man that passes judgement should be the one to swing the sword.' Etc. That concept that ruling, keeping the peace, and keeping the status quo so that no one is really in control over the other houses directly is what seemed to run the North for thousands of years. And it was only the unlawful killing of Starks by Southerners that could rile them up enough to rally behind the Starks. Imagine if Ned/Rob had attempted to call in the banners as soon as they 'figured out' it was Tyrion that had attempted to assassinate Bran, and to march on King's Landing or Casterly Rock. The North would have been like 'um, wtf, no? handle that your damn selves'. But attempting to kill the family that has done a great job ruling the North for thousands of years? 'Oh fuck no son, they let us do what we want, and now we want to fuck you up for fucking with them.' It seems to be a very Libertarian system in the North. And right now, with the Bolton's in power, it is no longer a Free Market based on competition.
the free market sucks
Hey, sorry I didn't see this until now, these are great comments! Thank you for watching.
+ryler05 Only if you aren't a Manderly.
@ryler05 y
+AnAmericanThinks great video looking forward to hearing more from you
"Running around the north, trying to be king." Best description of Stannis I've heard.
These should be the mottos of ASOIAF:
Cash Rules Everything Around Me (CREAM)
Knowledge is Power
Not north of the wall. Cash has no power there.
And as cersei told baelish, power is power. Varys also had a great point, power resides where men believe it resides.
"Under the sea the mermen feast on starfish soup, and all the serving men are crabs."
Excellent analysis +AnAmericanThinks Please make more! :)
Is that a patchface riddle?
Yes indeed Ramon Suarez.
Di Cleverly Wow, Martin is fucking boss. Any other ones I should be on the lookout for?
I know, right Ramon Suarez? GRRM is the best at leaving cluez! Some of Patchfaces prophecies have already happened, like the red wedding one, "Fool's blood, King's blood, blood on the maiden's thigh, but chains for the guest, and chains for the bridegroom, aye, aye, aye" but there is one that Patchface said up at the Wall: "I will lead it! We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will blow seashells to announce our coming". I've no clue what it means, but it sounds like foreshadowing the battle for the Dawn to me. What do you think it could be? :)
Di Cleverly Funny, I've been thinking about that particular prophecy after your Sir Manderly/Davos Seaworth post reignited my unhealthy Patchface prophecy obsession (He's the key to the whole thing, damnit!). The quote, "Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh" makes it seem like the War of the Dawn will he super-epic. But what if its not supposed to be taken literally but figuratively in the way "mermen feasting on starfish soup" isn't really about actual mermen but Manderly's devouring Boltons? In this interpretation an invasion/"coming" of Stannis forces will come with Manderly support on Valeryan (Seahorse sigil) ships? Aurane Waters, a Valeryan bastard, has a nice big naval fleet, thanks to Cersei. He abandoned the Lannisters when he heard she was imprisoned and his house was allied with Stannis in the War of Five Kings....
Possibly one of the smartest and thought out theory I've read in a while. Subscribed!
+mark brady Thanks!
This is a beautifully captivating analysis. Thank you for this. From a one fan to another.
+Lawrence N Thanks!
Let's not forget the possibility of Jon as well. Robb did name him as his legal heir in his will before the Red Wedding. Assuming the will made it north, and there is no reason to believe it didn't. Once Jon is revived he is technically Jon Stark, King in the North. At least according to the last will of the previous Stark king, and thereby any house still loyal to the Starks. Such as Umber and Manderly.
I don't think any other ASOIAF theorist/analyst has ever explored these particular angles you have presented. Very compelling, and very plausible.
Well played Ser
+Don The Kraken Witt Thanks!
+Planetside o'fun He's set for a curbstomp in the books
You managed to have me interested when there was mostly just geography and politics involved. Kuddos.
I find it really hard to like asoiaf/got RUclipsrs, most of them are overrated hacks who pander to the show watching crowd, have no new original ideas, and just read the wiki and the subreddit and that's how they get their content, but you and Preston are one of the few that I can still get behind.
I'd seen this video a year ago or something and I was reminded of it today due to the importance of rivers in a documentary about real-life that I just watched and I spent about an hour or more trying to find this video again. I think that should tell people something about how interesting I thought it was.
Mostly because the economics underlying these ideas just feel like they're just drenched in Martin's thinking and real-life economics and their effect on history. Which I think is a way of looking at the series that a lot of youtubers really only superficially address.
My expectation is that the last river is the border between the Karstark holdings and the Bolton holdings. Thus also adding it being a contested border between two houses as part of the reason why they won't really be a trade hub, likely double the interference from local lords looking to make a quick buck.
20:00 Rickon would be the best option because he's the youngest leading to more time as regent :P
Why haven't I found you sooner!? Awesome video man. keep it up
+Nate Kawasaki Thanks, glad you liked it!
Typically I don't sub to theory makers or anything similar due to clogging up the list of content makers I watch often. However, this is so well done I have elected to ignore that and you have earned another sub today. Very well done Ser.
+Jonathan Snow Hey thanks! I appreciate it.
Great video! Love the idea that Wyman can control all four rivers. I see him supporting the Starks as well. If he chooses to support Rickon (which makes the most sense), he can then marry Wynafryd or Willa to Rickon and solidify his position in the North. Wyman is in my top two favorite show snubs (the other being the Rooster, Jon Connington). Hope we get to see him in action next season. His son was at the Red Wedding in the show, and it seems they're doing a lot of North Remembers, so we have a chance to see him!
+mike cassady While I do enjoy the show, I've always known I wouldn't enjoy it as much as the books. There's simply no way a TV show can capture so much subtlety. But I think HBO is doing as good of a job as anyone can.
Thanks for watching!
@@anamericanthinks472 This didn't age well...
This is a brilliant assessment of what's happening in the North as far as the books are at. I love this video - please keep producing more. This was really detailed and thought provoking, you stayed on topic and, well, looking forward to the next. Thank you
+Margo Thanks! I've got the next one planned out; I just need to find time in my schedule to put it together.
Manderley can maintain control over Rickon longer than just being regent. He has two granddaughters he can marry to Rickon and control the North that way.
Well done. Love your take on Manderly's corpulence as a strategy to avoid military service. Brilliant! And GRRM is a bit chubby too. 😉
+C Suderburg Thanks!
I like the perspective of this video. Economics is a driving force of the game of thrones, and I think it is often overlooked. It also reveals some of the motivations of Roose Bolton other than him being a sociopath. It lays a practical groundwork for a Manderly/Umber conspiracy as well. You mentioned Manderly's cunning in tricking Roose Bolton, but I think it's implied in Dance of Dragons that Roose is very aware of Manderly's deceit. He puts the Manderlys and Umbers on the front lines when he counterattacks Theon's rescuers.
Not bad, much of the beginning I had surmised without knowledge of the rivers, but i like where you went with it
+Zachary Kool Glad you liked it!
sweet thank you. been needing some more ASOIAF theories
+Zackery Daley Thanks!
I've watched this video twice and bookmarked it for reference. Thank you for your work! And, yes, I've subbed.
Great work. More evidence that GRRM thinks a lot about rivers and trade can be found in Fevre Dream, his fantastic vampire novel.
+zenmasterfu Ah, I will have to look into that, since I have only read ASOIAF, and now reading the Thousand Worlds stories in Preston's book club.
I would love to know your angle on how Stannis thinking Manderly killed Davos will affect the up coming story. Remember, Stannis isn't aware that Davos isn't dead... He says in Dance: "I sent my knight to parley with Lord too fat and where is he now?" That issue could cause a huge wedge in Manderly's master plan...
Pretty solid geographic analysis. You could’ve also mentioned that Lord Hornwood asked Robb to dam the White Knife to add to the significance of it.
Wow, six years later and finally someone pointed this out to me! Amazing observation! I wish I could have addressed this in the original video, or even the follow-up. It ties in beautifully with everything going on here, and the interplay between the Manderly and Hornwood families.
@@anamericanthinks472 Agreed! Sorry it hasn’t come up sooner! I’ll have to check out the follow-up as well!
Wanted to ask your opinion about a geographic question if you have a minute: Why does no one try to build a port on the east side of the Neck south of Moat Caitlin? The quickest way across Westeros east to west is by the Twins and the Freys would certainly contribute to such an effort. Though it seems like the Vale owns the area in question and terrain likely doesn’t support it. But still. Seems geographically efficient as a trade route.
This was a good video you are pretty insightful and one day when I raise an army I'll need thinkers like you to help.
glad you enjoyed it!
Well done! The Manderlays were always my favourite side side characters and I can't wait for them to become more central to the story. As a Jew I just love the narrative of a merchant family that gets exiled from their homes and just rebuilds themselves stronger than before somewhere else. Also being the only southerner Lord in the North, being culturally different than his surroundings.
+Maxben L Thanks, glad you enjoyed it! I really like the Manderly's as well; I come from a business background, so anything that has to do with economics catches my attention.
Nice video Man really enjoyed it,
+Xojzk12 Thanks!
+AnAmericanThinks Agreed. Have my subscription Ser
new to the channel and im suprised by the quality of this video!
+Boulik Macboulinkton Thanks!
"...and because they're, well, Boltons."
Seems rational. XD
DUDE! Here are some things you should look up: Equalizer, compressor, normalization, noise removal, pop shield.
Just found this- very, very intriguing. Economics and power go together nicely. I now am thinking Manderly is planning ahead. Sansa could be paired up with one of his sons...thank you for an excellent video!
Hi I just stumbled on to one of your videos only watched 2 vids so far and you already mentioned 4 out of 6 of my got youtubers,and now I have 7 .You make great videos and I'm subscribing thanks.
+john jimenez Thanks!
Its no secret that events transpire in accordance to parallels in history. I think that this situation looks very similar to Francia c. 750; meaning that a dynasty of kings revered not only for the title they held but for the history of the house (merovingians/Starks), are essentially dying out. By this I mean that a child is left as the head of the dynasty. I think that GRRM will play out events in the north like this period in Frankish history, the 2nd most powerful house will act as de-facto wardens of the north through Rickon's regency. Eventually a descendent of Wyman will 'usurp' the title and rule as wardens of the north and we will see a Charlemagne-like figure. The prerequisite for this theory being that Reckon will be reinstated as the Lord of Winterfell.P.S. loved the video
+FlamingNoob Squid Great comment! Thanks for watching.
i propose to rename that theory to "hipitty hopitty your rivers are my property"
Great video. Never put a lot of thought behind the rivers in the North before, but this breakdown explains the motives behind the politics going on!
Good vid, I always thought that Roose was a "evil" just because he looks like Hannibal (Mads), but you put a pretty interesting and valid theory here, I'm studying history and yes, this shit happens mostly for socioeconomics and geopolitics that are not easy to see in the bare eye.
Growing season advantages are negated somewhat by the geophysics of Planetos. The only planting season that will be shorter, should be the last one prior to winter, rather than a yearly disadvantage, and perhaps winter abates last further north.
Good job m8, the geopolitics of ASoIaF would be mint!
+HackFrauds Thanks!
Wow, really good video! Please do more (on any topic actually, though I'm especially interested in this plot). Thanks!
Great job. I love the information graphics. You have a wonderful presentation voice.
In places that you say, "you can see-"'or anything about let's say, timber, town or mouth of some river or another, I'd love to see some identification marks. That'll be a little more tech, but would be so fun to watch.
+TrueStory good point, I'll try to put more of those in the next one.
Good stuff, like the trade & resource perspective, which is usually the most important part of conquering & power plays. Good on you for noting the 2 other utube ice & fire channels I watch, Preston Jacobs & Rawrist!
Can't wait to check out 1000 worlds, I just prefer hard copies over digital.
+Atomic Sunrise They're both great! I highly recommend them. Thanks for watching!
1 minute in and you already bored me to tears. well done.
Preston is awesome. I really liked your video and hope you continue to make them. I look forward to your next.
Another great vid. I'm glad to be one of your early subscribers and be able (I guess priviledged) to watch your channel grow. A dozen videos down the line you'll then ask for patreon support to fund an hd web cam or something. Just calling it.☺
+dvest_slack_rs Glad you're enjoying it!
Holy shit. That torturous sound is in THIS video too! Man. These are SUCH GOOD VIDEOS. You have such a knack for narration and are obviously able to make great videos. Only to have it ruined by that damn tapping. UGH
You earned another subscriber here. Well done sir. Looking forward to your next video.
15:54 The other big reason why House Manderly can't openly proclaim themselves rulers in the North is the fact that they are originally a southern house and still follow the Faith of the Seven.
THIS. I like this. Really looking forward to your future videos!
+Silvana Popa Thank you, I'm glad you enjoyed it!
I happen to believe that lord Wyman is actually a diehard Stark loyalist. Reading what he says about the debt the Manderlys owe the Starks, ..."a debt that can never be repaid." sends shivers down my spine every time I read it. I also feel Wyman realizes that the will no longer be a King in the north, and that he wants Rickon to merely be a lord and warden of the north, perhaps marrying one of lord Wyman's granddaughters.
+Yos Facej He might be a true Stark loyalist; if so that would be a nice change from the status quo of virtually every character in ASOIAF. I'm merely pointing out that he has SIGNIFICANT economic incentive to be a "Stark loyalist", or at least, to pay lip service to being a Stark loyalist and encourage others to do the same.
I like it. Although my current view is that Manderly has built himself as the numerically largest Northern army and navy. He is already in charge of a city 100,000 strong. He has been accepting refugees from Hornwood and other lands that the Boltons have plagued. And when Davos is in White Harbor he hears that Manderly's barracks have been accepting anyone who can wield a sword/spear if they want to pick up a little extra silver (and you can't possibly tell me that 300 men is all Manderly can bring to Winterfell for Roose). Manderly has 23 war galleys hidden in White Harbor and acknowledges to Davos that he has more hidden up the White Knife. I foresee him bringing to bear ~5,000-7,000 (swollen with the city's and refugees recruits) and ~50 war galleys being used in the Battle for Winterfell. I believe that Stannis will defeat the Frey's, slip into Winterfell disguised as Frey's and force the Boltons out. Roose will make a break for the Dreadfort but run into Manderly's force that has used the war galley's to run up the White Knife and cut him off. Roose will be captured by Manderly. The North will rally behind a resurrected Jon and hope to fight the Others.
+Praetorian Gaming I've seen these numbers; but I refer here to 23 war galleys because a POV character has physically had eyes on them. If Manderly really has ~50 war galleys, then so much the better.
I'm sure he's a significant land power as well, but there are lot of nobles in the North trying to compete on land. Where Manderly really has the advantage is naval power, where no one can come close to matching him.
Also, war galleys are not good river ships; if he really wanted to control the rivers he should have built longboats. War Galleys are better for sea power; but with as many War Galleys as Manderly has, he can make sure nobody uses and of the southeasterly rivers if he doesn't want them to.
AnAmericanThinks True, but I assume that the White Knife is large enough to fit war galley's. We also don't have a size description so the Westeros definition of war galley might be different than what we might think. Obviously the dromonds that are built for Tommen's Royal Navy (and then spirited away by Aurane Waters) would not do well on rivers, but we haven't really seen war galleys in action, so therefore it could be plausible that they can navigate the White Knife. I mean, he has already hidden some up the White Knife, they're already presumably halfway there. And it isn't Manderly's army that will allow him to cut off the Boltons. It's his navy. But alas, we won't know till we get our hands on Winds of Winter. Great vid man!
+Praetorian Gaming I generally agree that dromonds>war galleys>galleys>longboats.
And White Harbor is located somewhat upstream on the White Knife and isn't directly on the ocean, so I certainly agree that war galleys can go up the White Knife at least some distance. Really, any ship can fit in any body of water so long as it has the draft to do so. But more importantly than that, a ship has to realistically be able to turn in whatever body of water it is in, otherwise it becomes useless.
Assuming that longboats in ASOIAF are equivalent of the Viking knarrs, these ships were exceptionally versatile because they have a very shallow draft and were highly maneuverable, so they made excellent use of rivers. Dromonds and war galleys are historically ramming ships; they are longer and wider, to fit more oarsmen, and the oars themselves are longer for better leverage; hence they are better for ramming, and can better dominate the open seas, but are far less useful in the close confines of a river.
Additionally, all rivers become smaller and shallower the farther you go upstream, so with the White Knife these problems become worse the farther North you go. Of course, we have little enough detail on the White Knife as it is, so whether the river is sufficiently deep and wide to fit these ships is unknown. I'm certainly if GRRM wants them to fit, they will certainly fit :)
I'm glad you enjoyed the video, and thanks for the excellent comments.
You should do a video about the geopolitics of ASOIAF! :)
+IZVERGAT88 Thanks! I've actually been thinking this over.
nice theory, and it makes a lot of sense as it gives Rickon a better role than the one of bait. too bad the show writers only introduced the Manderlys until the season finale where all of this is unvalid (in the show at least) except the part that they have complete control of the economy now that the Boltons are gone
OMG! You figured how and why Manderly is so fat, makes total sense! I wonder if there is any real world historical figures done the same in the past?
wow nice vid mate, would love to see Stannis put Rikkon in Winterfell and Manderly run the trade, Just have to get through the battle first and be rid of the Boltons as they drown in the frozen lake
+Lee Hanney Glad you enjoyed it! You won't find much love for the Boltons on this channel. Or in the fandom in general. Or in Westeros for that matter...
Very interesting. I'm really curious about Wyman's war galleys. What does wyman plan to do with them? Hand them over to stannis? Start some naval warfare? Sell them? Use them to fight off pirates from his trade routes? Use them to threaten others (from a politician's point of view)? Or is it a combination of uses? Honestly, to me, none of these options seem likely. These are warships, and as you've pointed out, wyman doesn't do war. Moreover, the Boltons are not likely to rule for much longer. Not sure if the whole family would be wiped out. Also, Wyman seems like the type that would take the boltons down, but might take himself down in the process. I think this because I still wonder why wyman left his heirs behind when he traveled to Winterfell. Additionally, he could have easily died. Also, I don't see how he would be able to take down the boltons. The umbers are a good start, but he would need more alliances, the boltons are too strong I think, especially with the freys present in the north... but again, wyman doesn't do war. I don't dude, curious to see what wyman will do outside the walls of winterfell come winds of winter.
+ahmed kfji Lots of great points. As for the war galleys, they are a fascinating wild card and could be used for any number of things. For example; we know The Others are susceptible to dragon glass, and we know that Stannis was trying to mine dragon glass on Dragonstone until it was taken from him. And in order to retake Dragonstone, you would need a strong fleet, which Stannis doesn't have.
Or consider this; Dany is starting to turn her attention toward Westeros (finally), but to invade Westeros she'll need a fleet of warships. It could be that Manderly could supply her with ships. OR, anyone opposing Dany's invasion of Westeros would need a fleet of warships, making Manderly an invaluable ally to have here as well.
To say that Wyman Manderly doesn't "do war" is a bit of a stretch. Manderly himself doesn't go to war. But he's had no problem sending people in his stead, and has supplied Robb Stark with troops.
Also, bear in mind that Manderly claims he has assembled an army that may well be the biggest army remaining in the North. We also have rumor that the Umbers have assembled a secret army of their own as well. I didn't directly address both of these claims because we haven't actually gotten eyes on these troops and know that they exist for a fact, but if you check out the Radio Westeros link they do a pretty good job of summarizing these rumors. And if we believe that the Manderlys, Umbers, and Stannis are all willing to align to crush the Boltons between them, I have to think the Boltons really don't stand a chance. Particularly if winter is coming (or has already arrived?) and they stand little chance of being reinforced by the Lannisters, or even the Freys for that matter.
I also think that it is telling that Wyman left his heir at White Harbor. In fact, Wyman made no moves to execute these plans at all until Wylis is returned to him. I think he went to Winterfell knowing very well that he might die, and took every measure to make sure he had an heir in place before he made his moves.
I love the theories! The only criticism I would offer the Manderly-Stannis theory of Stannis allowing Rickon to be "King in the North." That's not happening. Stannis is completely rigid and in no way would allow any potential usurper even in name only. Stannis the Mannis is taking what is his BY RIGHT! But he probably would grant the Starks their previous Warden in the North status, which would be more than necessary to allow other northern houses to join his cause by his support of a strong house Stark.
Your analysis is extremely well thought through, focused & concise. Excellent presentation! I hope to hear similarly structured 'situational' analyses for ASoIaF 'realities' & events going forward ;) Again great job! Also, thanks for sharing the reference links in the description.
BTW, you might like 'The Revenge of Geography' by Robert D. Kaplan (2012) or 'Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin' by Timothy D. Snyder (2010). Both are great and horrifying reads but both helped me see a notion of "history repeats itself " within the constraints and opportunities of the land itself - the permanence of the mountain range or the span of the plain.
Mirri Maz Duur's perverse declaration that change will occur "... when the mountains blow in the wind like leaves" seemed even more vile and cruel when I recalled these two books.
excellent geopolitical analysis thanks
Would like to see your theories on the underlying economic motivations of the other regions/houses of Westeros.
Loved the video. My main point of contention being that the shape that an ounce of gold takes definitely defines its value. Currency, including hard currency such as gold coins, hold value on two fronts. There is the value of the raw material, and then the promise of value based on the federal economic state.
The best example of this is the US dollar. That square of papery fabric is worth next to nothing, but because the government promises you that it's worth whatever $5 can bet you, that's what it's worth.
And the difference in federal economy come more into play when you compare the American dollar to the Canadian dollar. The US dollar bills aren't made of a finer material than the Canadian, but due to international economics the American dollar is worth almost half again what the Canadian is worth right now.
+Alex Heart Thanks for commenting! However, you're comparing this to our modern fiat currency; a commodity-based currency is a far different animal. The value of the currency varies according to the supply/demand for that commodity. The country or entity that minted the coin in question is irrelevant because the gold/silver/etc can easily be chopped up or melted down and turned into jewelry or bullion or whatever.
+AnAmericanThinks It's actually not quite as different as all that. If a coin minted currency were only worth what it were printed in there would be no point of the currency at all. Historically the relevant nation's promise of value still raised the the coins value above or that of neighboring nations. A large amount of the value of a price of currency certainly comes from the material that it's printed on, but not all of it.
+Alex Heart It sounds like you are presenting this from the standpoint of commodity-backed currency such as the US system up until around the 1960s where you have a paper or some other nominal value currency that is theoretically backed by a precious commodity at a promised exchange rate.
The system that seems to be in place in the world of Ice and Fire doesn't have this component; the commodity IS the currency; its value is whatever goods or service you are able to get for it. There is no promise of underlying value from the government that minted it.
Or are you talking about debasement?
+AnAmericanThinks Sorry ask you to read an article rather than summarize here, but this page conveys my thoughts rather concisely and I have work tomorrow, so I've gotta hit the hay.
europeanhistory.boisestate.edu/latemiddleages/econ/banking.shtml
+AnAmericanThinks it briefly discusses debasing, but that wasn't foundation of my stance.
wow incredibly impressed by the thoroughness of this video.
I would have to go with the Sansa Stark theory. Littlefinger wants power, he already has a relationship with Sansa and to Sansa's knowledge he is a good person. So it would not shock me that Brienne will save Theon and Sansa in the wilderness of Winterfell and then take her to somewhere where she will meet up with Littlefinger and Davos and they will all work together to unite the North. Part of which will include Peter marrying Sansa and becoming lord of Winterfell and he gets his prize wife that he obviously wants anyway.
I don't see the show going too far into the politics of the North really so i doubt we hear much about Mandarlay(sp?) and the economic powers but from the trailers it does look like at the very least Season 6 will be about Sansa uniting the north against the Boltons.
What happens after that is anyones guess. But as Davos says, at any moment the dead will come and interrupt all politics.
+Aaron H Glad you enjoyed the video!
There is another factor here you may be missing. What if manderly secures a royal decree and puts jon snow on the throne? Manderly is a trader, and war is bad for trade. As such he may want a competent and strong ruler that isn't about to fuck his house over in the near future, as manderly is fat and he is old.
you have just earned a subscriber... excellent work
+The King in the North Thanks!
Very very good video! Looking forward to more such unseen content. You have a new sub :)
+adidamle Thanks! I've got it in progress.
Really like this video. Well done, Ser!
+Paul McCallum Thank you!
Hmm, think about Weyman Manderly... a stout bearded man with a nautical affinity who is craftily making plans that nobody suspects until the big reveal... kind of sounds like he might be a stand-in character for GRRM, no?
+jdw99 We'll, I've theorized that he's a stand-in for Haviland Tuf from GRRM's Tuf Voyaging series. Who I see as having pretty substantial overlap with GRRM himself. So I guess I don't disagree with you :)
Wow just found this channel. Really good.
Very well done and thought out.
+xHugoxN7 Thanks!
+AnAmericanThinks isn't Stannis dead
+Vali Rusev If you're watching the show, it must certainly seem so. I make these videos primarily from the perspective of the books, so you will probably find some discrepancies between my theories and the show.
Great theory. very well researched and thought out.
+Sergei B Thanks!
Enjoyed! Waiting for more, more, MORE.
Nice summery , nice analysis and good audio quality. Please continue, I really liked your style of presentation. However I have a question, you said Mannerly would gain control of the Dreadfort and of Harwood lands, if his scheming is successful. Isn't it more likely that the Ubers gain control of the Dreadfort? You showed their interest because of the Last River
+Akainela Good question. To me control of the Weeping Water comes down to two things; control of the Dreadfort (with land forces) and control of the river itself with naval forces. Control of the river is the easiest assumption to make, since the Umbers don't appear to have significant naval forces; in fact, they were complaining to Ser Rodrik that the wildlings were raiding their coasts, so we know that they don't have a sufficient navy to protect themselves against wildlings, much less a rival navy. So the Manderly's with their fleet of ships will almost certainly be able to take control of the river.
Control of the Dreadfort would essentially fall to which ever army gets there first. If you go back and look at the map again, the Umbers will either have to march all the way from Winterfell - where we know they have land forces - or they have to march down from Last Hearth, and to do that they have to march all the way around or through a mountain range. Meanwhile, the Manderly's also have forces at Winterfell, but they also have men in the Hornwood who have been skirmishing with Bolton men. So it would be a relatively easy march for them from the Hornwood to the Dreadfort. So I think the Manderly's get there first with naval power and with land power, so they end up getting the Dreadfort.
Class vid! You're gonna be the next PJ!
+CommonSenseABC Well, I'm not sure about that; PJ is pretty good at what he does. I'm just enjoying myself and glad to be part of the fandom!
Wow, much more interesting than I expected. thanks
Fucking Ramsey. l love that what he did to lady Hornwood had even greater meaning. It has to come back to haunt him now.... This was just great
Excellent analysis!
+Mance Rayder Thank you!
nice theory. i just wanted to contribute and say that Rikkon is tge most preferable candidate to gain Manderly support as he is a male Stark and may marry Willa Manderly, thus providing control over Stark house from Manderlies.
+Alexander Shorvaev Yes, I understand many believe this line of thinking, but I maintain that whoever marries for control of Winterfell must have the approval of which ever king that controls the 7 kingdoms, since control of Winterfell and the North is far too powerful of a position for the king to not have his say in who gets to marry whom.
+AnAmericanThinks The more reasons to give regency to Manderlies, who are alien to the North, who depend on trading with Kings Landing, and who's economical power is ballanced by military power of other northern houses.
My concern here is that if Stanis dies soon, ala the events of the show in the upcoming set piece battle against the Bolton. I have a feeling that manderly, based on his early interactions, may be content to be the power behind the throne regardless of the Boltons being gone or not. Even if nothing else changes besides that he has seen his family go from barely #1a/1b family to the power broakers in the north by which any decision made by a Stark or any other "ruling house" would have to go through him first.
One of the things that bothered me about Preston's Bravos/Facelessmen video series was his assertion that the ship from Bravos must have been waiting for Arya because salt pans was a minor port compared to gulltown. Yet Salt pans is located at the mouth of the trident which is either the largest or second largest river in westeros, very close to the free cities across the narrow sea; and the only eastern port serving the whole riverlands. A substantial amount of trade must flow through saltpans.
On the other hand the largest port in westeros is Oldtown which is located at the mouth of a relatively minor river in the reach; located on the far side of the continent, so that doesn't make much sense either. The riverlands are not as bountiful as the reach; but they certainly have a greater agricultural output than the north; so Saltpans should be at least the size of White Harbor (in volume of trade). The fact that this is not the case suggests that either this is an oversight by GRRM or their is some other factor besides geography that that explains the prosperity of regions in westeros.
+Karl Toth A lot of good thoughts here; I agree with you regarding Saltpans, although I'm not so certain the Riverlands have greater output than the North. I'll talk about this in a follow-up video. Oldtown is a bit of a mystery, and this has occurred to me before as well. It's in a tucked-away little corner of Westeros. I have a few thoughts on this that may come up in a future video as well, but essentially, their trade must not be in agricultural products or resource extraction.
If sigils are a clue, the north's major are wood and fur and the riverlands export a lot of fish. Bravos needs wood and fur, but has plenty of fish. So that might explain the trade deficit.
Their is a lot of discussion of fields burning in Clash, so I would think the riverlands grow a lot cereal crops. But the fact that the fields are burning and that the riverlands have a long history of being trampled or controlled by outside powers, might be part of the issue. Or it may simply be that kingslanding is the major market for grain and is more efficient reached by the kingsroad.
I definitely think there is a lot to explore in the series regarding economics.
+Karl Toth I'll be following up with a video along these very lines. Thank you for watching!
+AnAmericanThinks I just figured out saltpans = pans of salt for curing fish... I'm assuming the salt is imported from the iron islands?
+Karl Toth Ah, this is where we may differ, as I had assumed salt pans referred to the manufacture of the salt itself:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_evaporation_pond
Great video, you've earned another subscriber good sir
+datsweetsansabooty Thanks!
Isn't Jon Snow the obvious Stark to put on the throne? Proven warrior and leader, plus Robb already declared him his legitimate heir in case something happened to him. Aaaand, now that Jon has been dead and resurrected, his vows to the nights watch are also technically void.
Ray Last this is late but unlike the other children Jon has the classic stark looks and being eddards son.
Amazing theories, truly. Obviously the Rickon theory seems most plausible, but Arya Stark being persuaded by the Faceless Men to act a proper lady and marry a bannerman? THAT, is some CLASSIC GRRM level cynicism.
Wonderful, clever _and _ funny!
You're really good at explaining things, you've got yourself another subscriber.
I salute you. sir.....
If Manderly could rid himself of Stannis and Roose in the upcoming battle that would the North wide open for this plan he has of a Northern kingdom. Under a Stark of course, he just wants to be the North's "Tywin".
Hey bro are you the same dude who is the game father that did the videos about homeworld and sins of a solar empire?
+Denver Brown I wish. I've been wanting to pick up Sins of a Solar Empire but I'm waiting to upgrade my machine first.
On the other coast of th north theres a lot your forgetting. Barrowton which is controlled by house Dustin is one of the only large towns. House Ryswell who controls The Stoney Shore. i don't know if they really pose a true threat but what i am 100% sure about is something is going down with the Ryswells and the Dustins. we also see melisandre mentioning a horse with glowing red eyes, and i believe another character does as well something the Ryswell sigil has
Great video, you just made a new subscriber :-)
you make solid points, but the truth is, is Stannis could easily just stay on a land battle with the Karstarks and siege white harbor with no problem from all the galleys
+john parks So long as Manderly has galleys he can always reinforce and resupply by sea, and a siege from anyone would be pointless. And Stannis can't afford to still for months or years trying to besiege White Harbor while he still has Boltons and Lannisters to fight. For better or worse Stannis is in the North, and in order for his claim to advance he has to work towards uniting the North, and besieging every town/castle in the North is an extremely slow way to accomplish this goal.
Great one! Go on!
the Umbers would be wise to demand control the end of their own river and the Bolton strong hold
Great vid looking forward to more
I think the forest in the Hornwood lands is more valuable than the mouth of the broken branch.
Definitely showing people this!
+JxJ97 Thanks!
Yup, me too. I got nephews into the series and now they are maybe even more into it than me.