Is Putin Really Plotting a War with NATO?

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  • Опубликовано: 20 сен 2024
  • As Putin's brutal invasion of Ukraine continues, we look at his plan for a bigger escalation against the West later in the 2020s.
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    • THIS explains why Russ...
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    • How Putin Fooled the W...
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    WATCH MORE:
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Комментарии • 2,6 тыс.

  • @VladVexler
    @VladVexler  10 месяцев назад +225

    As Putin's brutal invasion of Ukraine continues, we look at his plan for a bigger escalation against the West later in the 2020s.
    WATCH NEXT:
    The Western-led global order is BROKEN. Can we fix it?
    ruclips.net/video/6TmmhwQs10s/видео.html
    Why Losing Crimea May Destroy Putin
    https:/ruclips.net/video/N6CGbYQIVJs/видео.html
    THIS explains why Russia starts insane wars
    ruclips.net/video/V6UiEXrVrvg/видео.html
    How Putin Fooled the Western Left
    ruclips.net/video/017WGzJ5fHA/видео.html
    -------
    You can now support Vlad's work on Patreon!
    www.patreon.com/vladvexler
    Support Vlad via PayPal
    www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB
    -------
    WATCH MORE:
    Why Russian History Repeats itself (Putin and his hero Alexander III)
    ruclips.net/video/bWJjrXVkFBA/видео.html
    Why All Russians Are Responsible for Putin's War
    ruclips.net/video/d1pOahq4TCk/видео.html
    The Postmodern Hell Of Russian Propaganda
    ruclips.net/video/_j6Vg7yLx54/видео.html
    Why Russians Struggle To Transcend Imperialism
    ruclips.net/video/12PC6AjDkns/видео.html
    Why I left the USSR....and why post-Soviet Russia failed
    ruclips.net/video/8BbXqeW7mz8/видео.html
    The Riddle of Why Russians Don't Protest
    ruclips.net/video/K4O3D7CfThA/видео.html

    • @roblockstock
      @roblockstock 10 месяцев назад +11

      These videos are really good Vlad.

    • @juliereminiec4937
      @juliereminiec4937 10 месяцев назад +14

      Vlad, Could Putin be Paranoid?
      Symptoms
      Paranoid symptoms may range from mild to severe. They depend on the cause but, generally, a person who is paranoid may:
      be easily offended
      find it difficult to trust others
      not cope with any type of criticism
      assign harmful meanings to other people’s remarks
      be always on the defensive
      be hostile, aggressive and argumentative
      not be able to compromise
      find it difficult, if not impossible, to ‘forgive and forget’
      assume that people are talking ill of them behind their back
      be overly suspicious - for example, think that other people are lying or scheming to cheat them
      not be able to confide in anyone
      find relationships difficult
      consider the world to be a place of constant threat
      feel persecuted by the world at large

    • @spxram4793
      @spxram4793 10 месяцев назад +5

      @@juliereminiec4937 is this seriously a question?

    • @joerosa170
      @joerosa170 10 месяцев назад +2

      Vlad will you please read my comment. It's around the 60 comment. Thank you.

    • @kosminuskosminus6668
      @kosminuskosminus6668 10 месяцев назад +1

      Dammm.... this video has gone chuku :)))
      LOL :)))
      dude you have gone off the reservation :)))

  • @Anderixx
    @Anderixx 9 месяцев назад +175

    German here. I say, it is time to stand together. Shoulder on shoulder. Heart on heart. All Europeans together!

    • @martinandreev2722
      @martinandreev2722 9 месяцев назад +4

      Germany is american colony...what yopu are talking about pal?Germany screwed all europeans with it depandance from USA when supposted to be the strongest Europe coutry and from there to build the strong and independent Europe.

    • @theostragonidis7548
      @theostragonidis7548 9 месяцев назад +1

      Ok, now who's gonna pay the gas prices that have tripled? Maybe Herr Lindner can open up the surplus account of the BundesBank and give out some cash to the poorer countries like Bulgaria, which can't afford the current gas prices?

    • @3zzzTyle
      @3zzzTyle 9 месяцев назад +5

      Ein Volk, Ein Reich 👍

    • @neogeo1670
      @neogeo1670 7 месяцев назад +2

      @@martinandreev2722 all nato coutries are, but germany is one of the most powerful of them exepet for the usa for the moment

    • @coolbanana165
      @coolbanana165 7 месяцев назад +19

      British here, and I agree. All the fascist understands is strength.
      We need a well funded and organised military in democratic Europe.

  • @ethribin4188
    @ethribin4188 10 месяцев назад +83

    I recall,about 80 years ago, a despot demanded, and agressivly took territory.
    And was allowed to do so under the hope he'll stop after those 2-3 landgrabs.
    And then we were in WW2.

  • @matteusvirtanen392
    @matteusvirtanen392 10 месяцев назад +1370

    The scars of war against Russia are still in memory here in Finland and my great-grandfather was a prisoner of war in a pretty brutal camp. The thought of war is pretty horrifying but the thing is that if the Russians really came here they would rape and murder and steal just like they do in Ukraine and if I didn't go to defend the country alongside everyone else it would mean that my family or some other family would be subject to everything from summary executions to looting by Russian forces. Simply put there is no alternative. My friend went to Ukraine and fought there and he saw plenty of nasty stuff and he still has a degree of PTSD but Russia must be opposed. If Russia takes over its neighbors it will only mean an age of darkness where lawlessness and cruelty reign. I guess the Italians and the French and the Germans have the luxury of feeling a sense of distance to the whole thing but us in the unimportant buffer states have to be vigilant and ready to respond.

    • @ievgenmajor3301
      @ievgenmajor3301 10 месяцев назад +114

      Than you for clear thoughts! Thanks to your friend, for supporting Ukraine!

    • @CaptainDangeax
      @CaptainDangeax 10 месяцев назад +59

      As French we had to deal with nazies in 1940-45, after northern france being submitted in 1914-18. Guess why we have independant nukes, a nuclear aircraft carrier, and planes that can interoperate with american carriers...

    • @matteusvirtanen392
      @matteusvirtanen392 10 месяцев назад +117

      @@CaptainDangeax The question is less whether or not western European countries have the military means to honor article 5 obligations but rather whether or not the will to do so is there. If Russia started straight up bombing Tallinn or Vilnius would Germany and Italy and France etc. be ready for a direct military confrontation with Russia? Of course nobody can give any absolute answers but at least personally I'm not so sure what would happen.

    • @sergeybobkov951
      @sergeybobkov951 10 месяцев назад

      You are absolutely delusional. Nobody in Russia cares about Finland. Don't murder Russians and you will be fine.

    • @skrrBOP
      @skrrBOP 10 месяцев назад

      I have both pro-Russian and anti-Russian videos recommended to me about RUclips, the image i have developed is that Russia is acting very predictably, best described by John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago (you can find him on youtube), also Putin's mindset is totally justified by how Yeltsin was influenced by the West and later ordered tanks to attack the parliament building. You cannot attribute a "personality" on a nation other than individual leaders. Also you are crying about something that happened a century ago, look into the organization that your country, Finland, has decided to join. Look at all the NATO special operations and ask yourself why Putin would not want that near Russia instead of assigning personalities to him like this is some teenage american movie.

  • @MrMacavity
    @MrMacavity 10 месяцев назад +160

    Swede here, we have never trusted what Russia has been up to.

    • @beth7935
      @beth7935 10 месяцев назад +23

      And I really think countries further from russia should listen to countries like yours, who have experience of russian aggression & tyranny.

    • @joachimhupe4018
      @joachimhupe4018 10 месяцев назад

      Same here in Germany, corrupt politicians like Schröder don't represent us.

    • @fightersweep
      @fightersweep 10 месяцев назад +17

      @@beth7935 I agree. The left leaning observers frequently cite NATO expansionism as the cause of this with the many eastern European and Baltic countries that have either joined or wish to join. What I never hear them address is maybe it's because those countries know what it's like to live under Russian occupation and have no desire to live under it again.

    • @sashagrey2984
      @sashagrey2984 10 месяцев назад +1

      I would be suprised if you woud have, swede. After all, Sweden has been at war with Russia more 10 times, and has been defeated by Russia eventually, from Poltava (may google for distance to Sweden) to the time when Sweden wasn't officially allied with Hitler, though almost HALF of all the Nazi steel in armaments was swedish steel. Sweeden was neck deep in 30s and 40s into govenmental eugenics and blood purity and the concept of unworty bloodlines, while Soviet Union was all in internationalism, so it is far from being natural allies for us. Nothing changed since Hitler times in European attitude of bloc mentality and ideas of well-fed white Christian Knights defending pure blood lines from barbarians from Russia or others of "the unworthy kind".

    • @sashagrey2984
      @sashagrey2984 10 месяцев назад

      @@fightersweepWhat if Cuba decied to ally with USSR? Or Haiti would be just sold out to China, if China agrees to just flood it with money? I wonder if these counties are free to choose. In short, they'll suffer like Ukraine suffers.

  • @TitouFromMars
    @TitouFromMars 10 месяцев назад +53

    I would agree with you (about the invasion of the Baltic States) if there weren't NATO soldiers there. There are too few of them to oppose the annexation of the Baltic States, but if they die, they make NATO intervention inevitable. They are literally human shields and life insurance for the Baltic states.

    • @PrystupaPaul
      @PrystupaPaul 9 месяцев назад +11

      around 2015, there were nato wargaming for war vs russia on baltic. It did not went well for nato. . In short - it was capture Baltics as soon as possible, stop, then use the "what done is done, if you attack us now we will nuke you". There was a conclusion that in that situation there would be a lot of questions raised whether or not freeing Baltics states is worth to start the nuclear war (the dilemma that eventually destroys NATO as idea).
      think as conclusion of that causes increase of the permanent Nato personnel in Baltics (to keep longer). The big effect on opinions were also what Ukrainians saw after russian withdraw from Kyiv. People tortured and killed in Bucha and other places were not caught in crossfires, they were exterminated. So any options of "temporarily cease Baltics and get back regrouped" is not viable - a lot of population in that case will likely not see the Nato getting back.

    • @Bayard1503
      @Bayard1503 7 месяцев назад +2

      @@PrystupaPaul Those scenarios were before Finland and Sweden joined NATO. Now Kaliningrad is becoming a liability instead of an asset for Moscow.

    • @allenk6373
      @allenk6373 7 месяцев назад

      @@Bayard1503but again even if some state annexed Kaliningrad
      Nothing will happens
      Putin do not give a shit about Kaliningrad

  • @diomuda7903
    @diomuda7903 10 месяцев назад +333

    My country Czechia joined NATO is not without reasons. We knew Russia is a medieval state that cannot change. Today we are looking to Ukraine and we sympathised because we knew it.

    • @vksasdgaming9472
      @vksasdgaming9472 10 месяцев назад +18

      It can change. It just has chosen not to change.

    • @khrapov
      @khrapov 10 месяцев назад +1

      Also, Czechoslovakia sided with Nazi Germany ;) No wonder you support ukronazi now

    • @bobitoi
      @bobitoi 10 месяцев назад +54

      ​@@vksasdgaming9472You don't expect an abusive alcoholic to change, just like you don't expect Ruzzia to finally leave the 20th century and give up imperialism.

    • @bearpaw72
      @bearpaw72 10 месяцев назад +41

      20th century? Russia still hasn't even made it to the Renaissance yet. @@bobitoi

    • @vksasdgaming9472
      @vksasdgaming9472 10 месяцев назад

      @@bobitoi Whole Russian culture seems to be of narcissistic alcoholism. Even if they are soberest ever their minds still work like those of narcissistic alcoholics.

  • @joestrat2723
    @joestrat2723 10 месяцев назад +530

    This will be a long war because we missed our chance to make it a short war. Putin was thrown very off balance by his initial failures, but we acted weakly and without resolve. We've given him the gift of time, time to dig in and plant millions of mines, time to mobilize many soldiers, time to build new weapons and secure military support from like-minded west-hating nations. Putin went from panic early in the war to smug self congratulation after seeing our luke warm response.
    We've somewhat proven him right, and I agree with Vlad's analyses of his next steps. He's nowhere near looking for an end to all this, quite the opposite.

    • @adnyc82
      @adnyc82 10 месяцев назад

      That’s what I’ve been saying all along. We should have given Ukraine all the weapons it requested from the outset, not the slow drip of weapons that we have given.
      Another advantage we’ve handed to Putin is that he has time - we don’t. Biden can say he’ll supply Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” but that aid depends on Congress, and particularly a Republican-controlled House. And if Biden loses in November, then Ukraine is really screwed because Europe won’t be able to make up for all that aid once Trump cuts it off.

    • @sirc1446
      @sirc1446 10 месяцев назад +4

      Maybe That's the Plan?

    • @ugiswrong
      @ugiswrong 10 месяцев назад

      We don’t belong in Eastern Europe. It isn’t our space, and it isn’t our business

    • @yelyak
      @yelyak 10 месяцев назад +4

      Well said!

    • @judyweeks1480
      @judyweeks1480 10 месяцев назад +25

      There is still time but the window of opportunity gets smaller and smaller. Thankfully, Ukraine is steadfast, determined, and still holds its own.

  • @JunkerOnDrums
    @JunkerOnDrums 10 месяцев назад +408

    As a European country that is a member of NATO, I can only say in the words of Winston Churchill: We will fight on our beaches. We will fight on our airfields. We will fight in the fields and in the streets. We will fight in the hills and we will never surrender (to Putin)!”

    • @karltanner3953
      @karltanner3953 10 месяцев назад +45

      As a fellow European, I certainly hope from the bottom of my heart that there won't be further military escalation between Russia and the West. If God forbid such should take place, you won't find me anywhere near the front-lines. I refuse to throw my life away because of the fragile egos of dictators and the ineptitude of politicians. War is pure waste and everyone loses.

    • @DoesThisWork888
      @DoesThisWork888 10 месяцев назад +8

      *flees to Canada*

    • @occamraiser
      @occamraiser 10 месяцев назад

      troll, bot, or kremlin stooge? You must be one of those!
      I can't believe that you think avoiding the front lines will mean that everything turns out OK for you when your country is subsequently over-run by a dictator because you didn't defend you way of life. OR are you saying that you would run and hide but still rely on the honourable people in your nation to protect your worthless skin?
      Your comment isn't principled or smart, it is simply cowardly.@@karltanner3953

    • @spxram4793
      @spxram4793 10 месяцев назад +43

      @@DoesThisWork888 look at a map of the Arctic Sea, before you think Canada is safe. Fleeing helps the agressor. The agressor has be fought off.

    • @gherkinisgreat
      @gherkinisgreat 10 месяцев назад +80

      @@karltanner3953 Probably a good thing people in Britain didn't think like you during WW2.

  • @duartesimoes508
    @duartesimoes508 10 месяцев назад +9

    One day on TV I heard someone saying that ruzzia is never as weak nor as strong as we think. I can't remember who said that, but he was absolutely right.

    • @charlesburgoyne-probyn6044
      @charlesburgoyne-probyn6044 9 месяцев назад

      It's not as strong as the USA which isn't as strong as it looks, but whilst clearly weaker is stronger than it appears

    • @xbocyx
      @xbocyx 7 месяцев назад

      Iron chancellor, Otto von Bismarck said that

  • @austria-hungary4981
    @austria-hungary4981 10 месяцев назад +20

    Putin has no chance against NATO unless he plays at least 10,000 hours of HOI4 and masters the strategies from it.

    • @tobbele1010
      @tobbele1010 10 месяцев назад +4

      Even with hoi4 it won’t work. Imagine fighting against a nato navy. Also he probably can’t micromanage

    • @allenk6373
      @allenk6373 7 месяцев назад +1

      Yes
      They only managed to take avdeevka
      A village
      And it took them couple of mounts

    • @Uranus_is_the_size_of_a_planet
      @Uranus_is_the_size_of_a_planet 7 месяцев назад +1

      @@allenk6373 Avdiivka was a great russian success. It was the most militarized and fortified town in all of Ukraine. It's unwise to underestimate your enemy.

    • @peterechnaton52
      @peterechnaton52 6 месяцев назад +4

      Its not about how strong the NATO is, its more about the will of the NATO-states to get into s war with Russia to save the baltic states

    • @atnfn
      @atnfn 4 месяца назад

      Think Hitler would have used nukes just before Germany lost if he had Nukes? From what I remember he felt that Germany deserved to get destroyed sine they lost the war. If Putin has the same mindset it actually seems logical that he would use nukes when he is about to lose. Which really is a scary tought, cause nobody can really stop it. If Russia launches all their nukes we're all screwed, well at least the northern part of the world. Maybe think about moving to Australia or Argentina.

  • @rachelatwood9555
    @rachelatwood9555 10 месяцев назад +414

    A major sticking point in formulating a Russia strategy for many states is that I don't really think it's possible to discuss post-Putin Russia without being accused of inciting some kind of regime change plans--same goes for pointing out that Russia isn't a democracy, and that its despotic leadership isn't optimal for the Russian people

    • @Katoshi_Takagumi
      @Katoshi_Takagumi 10 месяцев назад +26

      This issue is not going to be solved until there is that regime change. However, that solution is going to introduce even more problems down the road, some which we can foresee, others that might surprise us, unpleasantly. Would Russia survive a single election as a democracy for that matter, or would a corrupt autocratic demagogue easily take over and we'd be right back where we started from.

    • @mathieusimoneau3358
      @mathieusimoneau3358 10 месяцев назад

      Never be afraid to underline facts. Russia is not even close to the shell of a democracy and post-Russia is not only after Putin, it is after the dismantlement of the " federation ". Now if it anger some minds, it is no reason to practice self-censure. I'm positive if you take 5 minutes listening to them you will get angered, the only difference is they don't care. So why should we?

    • @VajrahahaShunyata
      @VajrahahaShunyata 10 месяцев назад

      Putin is probably not the worst of them unfortunately...
      But must be stopped before he kills millions of humans..

    • @riskinhos
      @riskinhos 10 месяцев назад

      and someone even more crazy can replace putin. like medvedev. if it was for him a nuclear war would happen

    • @karinfend2980
      @karinfend2980 10 месяцев назад +4

      The more wise words the more space for Russian propaganda

  • @horrisnorris6478
    @horrisnorris6478 10 месяцев назад +216

    Despite Vlad spending significantly less time on this video than on most on the main channel, the quality is as high as ever!

    • @VladVexler
      @VladVexler  10 месяцев назад +34

      So grateful ! Really grateful.

    • @rasmushertzum252
      @rasmushertzum252 10 месяцев назад +33

      Yes. The lack of music in this video is very positive. It makes it easier to focus on the content. A perfect blend of the chat-channel style and the faster-paced style. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

    • @julles99
      @julles99 10 месяцев назад +4

      a main channel_?? are you saying there is more?
      I though this is it..

    • @horrisnorris6478
      @horrisnorris6478 10 месяцев назад +7

      @@julles99 Yeah it's called 'Vlad Vexler Chat'! The videos are more conversational and unedited, and also longer and much more frequent. Definitely worth checking out if you'd like to see more! There's also a smaller philosophy channel

    • @VladVexler
      @VladVexler  10 месяцев назад +6

      @@julles99 youtube.com/@VladVexlerChat

  • @pgr3290
    @pgr3290 10 месяцев назад +248

    The response by the West to this invasion has quite frankly been rather weak, slow and hesitant. Less than two years into this invasion and support already looks really tenuous, caught in a really dangerous negative feedback loop. Ukraine doesn't immediately succeed = wobble on aid and look for off ramps. When a strong response should be a positive loop Ukraine doesn't immediately succeed = even more aid faster and harden up the diplomatic rhetoric for a Ukrainian victory. Putin sees this weakness as justifying everything he has done and reinforcing his logic. The more the West wobbles the more he believes he is correct and the longer he will continue this war. Only a truly powerful response would send him scuttling back inside his borders and make him rethink his world view. Instead Western nations are validating his choices and proving him correct. We're just asking for this war to continue, slowly and grinding.

    • @ArynBendah
      @ArynBendah 10 месяцев назад +2

      The lobbyists sponsored by L&H and Raytheon need their paychecks.

    • @jimpydee4729
      @jimpydee4729 10 месяцев назад +1

      I think Putin knows if the collective west or NATO really wanted to waltze on over there and spank his botty back to Russia then they could. I don't mean going in to fight, but just supplying what is required. Economically it's a total no contest. There is simply no way his forces or government could survive if everything was supplied to Ukraine yesterday, with an awful lot more evidently coming down the pipeline tomorrow. The political unity is not there and I sometimes weep for the days where we had canny characters of strong will and conviction holding office. Ultimately they might be misguided like Reagan or Thatcher but they would not have put up with this nonsense. They would have rallied support with a mix of charm and iron, both possessing communication skills that totally outstrip anything we see today to achieve the political will and unity required. The lack of this from Biden has been such a worry for me. He has made one lame speech to the nation about this massive issue in two years. It wasn't even close to crossing the political divide. Do you even remember a word that he said? In the past you might not agree with his government and possibly even dislike the man, but you could get most behind the principle. Those days seem far away and instead that gaping hole of personal magnetism and competence (even illusory) is filled by the likes of Trump, because there is so much space for him.

    • @henriikkak2091
      @henriikkak2091 10 месяцев назад

      Yes. That's true.
      The West hasn't given a toss about Russia's European neighbors in the past and it doesn't really care now -- that's Putin's thinking.
      All of Russia's neighbors worry that he might be right.

    • @shadowknight1990o
      @shadowknight1990o 10 месяцев назад

      ​@@ArynBendahThey may be devils, but at least they are OUR devils. Unlike Putin's wannabe Czar/Stalin rear they can be aimed at good ends. For us and our allies at the very least.

    • @АлександрСмирнов-щ7ч
      @АлександрСмирнов-щ7ч 10 месяцев назад +3

      you are right, to the last living Ukrainian.

  • @chileanhussar2659
    @chileanhussar2659 10 месяцев назад +58

    I am of both Russian, Polish, Jewish and Arab side. My Russian ancestors used to flee to Russia when they saw how inhuman Russia is as a country. The invasion of Ukraine by Putin was the perfect illustration of Russia. The aggression, brutality and psychopathy of Putin shocked a lot. I am glad to be born in Chile, but it is a tragedy to see how many Ukrainians being killed because of a psychopath. We are sorry for you, Ukraine, the sane Russian people and descendants want nothing to do with Putler.

    • @msimon6808
      @msimon6808 10 месяцев назад

      Putin is an abused child. Hitler was an abused child. Keep an eye on the angry ones.

    • @lukasomasta2333
      @lukasomasta2333 9 месяцев назад

      dont worry you are just brainwashed, its not your fault.

    • @charlesburgoyne-probyn6044
      @charlesburgoyne-probyn6044 9 месяцев назад +3

      Quite a mix biology and identity

    • @MrGreg771
      @MrGreg771 9 месяцев назад

      Poland remember ukr bandera nazis and their bestaiality with axes ,forks and other tools.You can find polish survivals relations on YT. Bandera nazi bestiality is unpresidented.Ukr.want to hide it under the carpet.Karma comes back !!!That,s why they going to loose this war!

  • @kellymoses8566
    @kellymoses8566 9 месяцев назад +5

    I will never understand how a country can allow a single human being to get so much power.

  • @MHDebidour
    @MHDebidour 10 месяцев назад +8

    I know that Putin take care of his health but he's not immortal, now he's 71, lets hope nature will help us before 2028...

  • @0815Snickersboy
    @0815Snickersboy 10 месяцев назад +167

    Yesterday Germany announced the doubling of military aid for Ukraine. But what is really weird is that they announced that there will be a "Veteran Day". To me as a German that one got me thinking "are they preparing for something ?". This is such an unusual move I have never expected. But I think NATO is very well aware of might happen in the future.
    I also think putin miscalculated the reaction of the west to the invasion of Ukraine. He has done more for the unification of Europe and NATO than the EU ever did.

    • @marija8749
      @marija8749 10 месяцев назад +13

      I really like this idea, it gives me hope🤞

    • @whatsgoingon71
      @whatsgoingon71 10 месяцев назад +15

      I'm afraid that you overestimate our politicians...

    • @budgiefriend
      @budgiefriend 10 месяцев назад +17

      @@whatsgoingon71 It will be the strategists keeping an eye on putin. They are solid, make no mistake about that.

    • @guidobolke5618
      @guidobolke5618 10 месяцев назад +17

      And don't forget Pistorius talk about making the Bundeswehr "kriegstüchtig". That's not about Ukraine and not about interventions. They are building a new army for a war with russia.

    • @gjk282
      @gjk282 10 месяцев назад +15

      And you underestimate the impact of the EU. This is one of the most ambitious and in many respects most successful political projects ever undertaken. If it is to last for as long as it has already, it's up there with the achievements of great past cultures in its impact on the region, its people, its values and the world beyond.
      We'll see how it will fare visavis the current developments. But if it prevails for the next 30 years, it is likely to do so for quite a long time after.

  • @r.a.acosta6528
    @r.a.acosta6528 10 месяцев назад +43

    Rather bold assumption that Putin will still be alive in 5 years.

    • @mariarucci78
      @mariarucci78 7 месяцев назад +3

      True but his people will

    • @Ukie88
      @Ukie88 7 месяцев назад +3

      Hope not

  • @Tobbs96
    @Tobbs96 10 месяцев назад +3

    You say Putin is "haunted by the fall of Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi" and that he has this mystical view of the Russian civilization state. With respect, Mr. Vexler, you speak as if you have intimate and personal knowledge of Putin as a person and the deepest workings of his mind. How would you be so intimately knowledgeable with what Mr. Putin thinks and feels?

    • @The.Curious
      @The.Curious 10 месяцев назад

      The really interesting question is, does Vlad really believe all he says, or is he using his brilliant communication skills to push a certain narrative to further fuel our hatred against Russia and strengthen our resolve to fight it. I have been following ever since the war started and struggle to come to a clear conclusion.
      What's clear, Vlad is not an unbiased analyst in quest of an objective truth. And to a large part, his intellectual musings are speculations packaged as facts.

  • @Nowherenear-w1d
    @Nowherenear-w1d 10 месяцев назад +57

    Bravo, Vlad. I live in Russia and your view and understanding is outstanding. Complete match and very clever explanation. Thank you for enlightening western auditory

    • @VladVexler
      @VladVexler  10 месяцев назад +14

      I’m sorry about everything!

    • @danieltikhonov284
      @danieltikhonov284 9 месяцев назад

      За тобой уже выехали 😊😊

  • @stevejohnson3357
    @stevejohnson3357 10 месяцев назад +118

    As always right on point. This is why so many countries have term limits for the highest office. Democratically elected authoritarian leaders hate term limits because they strip away power but they can count on their followers to back them in getting around them. And it's also why some states have their armies swear loyalty to a figurehead rather than the actual leader.

    • @AlfaGiuliaQV
      @AlfaGiuliaQV 10 месяцев назад

      USA is on that trajectory now, with a Trump seeking nothing but vengeance for made up injustices and revenge on the people. I bet he hates term limits too.

    • @justgeneric2876
      @justgeneric2876 10 месяцев назад +1

      It’s the same reason some authoritarian regimes that had elements of democracy had term limits

    • @АндрейЕфимов-в8ю
      @АндрейЕфимов-в8ю 10 месяцев назад +3

      What about prime ministers? They have more power than Presidents in some countries and still have no term limits.

    • @FrankStein-y1r
      @FrankStein-y1r 10 месяцев назад

      LOL

    • @urtyp6596
      @urtyp6596 10 месяцев назад +3

      Angela Merkel: hold my beer

  • @_amalfitano
    @_amalfitano 10 месяцев назад +82

    "Putin sees us better than we see him" was just talking about this with a friend; this is so easy to forget but is so important. So is his opportunism, which you do the best job of clearly laying out.

    • @YuLu-iv8cz
      @YuLu-iv8cz 10 месяцев назад

      It doesn't matter how well Putin understands us. He's not in direct war with us. Instead he's at direct war with Ukraine, of which he DOESN'T UNDERSTAND ANYTHING AT ALL.

    • @gdutfulkbhh7537
      @gdutfulkbhh7537 10 месяцев назад

      Fortunately, Putin is a sick old man and he’s done everything he can to ensure that he has no capable underlings.

    • @michaelcanty4940
      @michaelcanty4940 10 месяцев назад +1

      The problem is he (V) knows us better than we know ourselves. That's why I went to Larkhill last night. Inspector Finch, V for Vendetta

  • @TheSuperappelflap
    @TheSuperappelflap 10 месяцев назад +5

    I think an underappreciated side of this existential conflict is Russia's population decline. Putin doesnt just want to annex Ukraine, he wants the Ukrainian people to contribute to the Russian state.

  • @OuterGalaxyLounge
    @OuterGalaxyLounge 10 месяцев назад +16

    Putin can't conquer a persistent gnat but wants to attack an elephant.

  • @Jay-nq2jl
    @Jay-nq2jl 10 месяцев назад +12

    4 years is a long time at his age…and tryants go from
    Hero to zero
    PDQ

  • @edmundfreeman7203
    @edmundfreeman7203 10 месяцев назад +57

    I think we as a world need to think hard about institutions without US involvement. Like a US-less NATO in Europe, and a Japan-S Korea-Vietnam-Phillipines-India in the Pacific. The US might be very flaky for a very long time.

    • @Beachgirl1
      @Beachgirl1 10 месяцев назад

      I’m from the US and am a proud isolationist. Neither my family nor myself will lift a finger to assist the unelected dictator Xiden and his violent Brownshirts.

    • @sumotony
      @sumotony 10 месяцев назад +2

      This may apt as raised by Peter Zeihan or YT Jake Broe. (Not an American) but a return by Trump to Whitehouse is possible? Then lets make a deal!? Mr Putin

    • @oldmanriver1955
      @oldmanriver1955 10 месяцев назад +9

      I would count Australia in the Pacific group. Our trade and strategic needs are rooted in Asian/Western Pacific peace and stability. Our defence links to this region are growing.

    • @stooge_mobile
      @stooge_mobile 10 месяцев назад +3

      @@oldmanriver1955
      But we still need defence money, material, connections and diplomacy with the US currently to achieve our aims. Hopefully not forever.

    • @kamchatmonk
      @kamchatmonk 10 месяцев назад

      Without the almighty dollar, everything in the west crumbles. It's impossible for any western or pro-western country to form any bloc or alliance without US running it one way or another. And if US ever experiences any problems, you can rest assured that it will offload as much of it as it can into its "allies".

  • @global.citizens
    @global.citizens 10 месяцев назад +35

    Interesting, yet add 2 other parameters to this equation: Eastern Europe itself and by this I mean specifically: Belarusian people on one side and Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Ukraine on the other
    They know the Russians far better then the Western countries
    This block, within EU will stand against the Russian aggression economically and military
    Neither of these specific countries aren't in the mood of letting the guard down and they are increansingly cooperating with each other

    • @Kniazhnami
      @Kniazhnami 10 месяцев назад +15

      Little bit about Belarusians. Most of our people support Ukraine and feel themselves as a regular central- Eastern Europeans, have friends and relatives in Poland and Lithuania, in Ukraine . The regime and society live in parallel universies when we talk about how to develop our country, in vision of future. Every week we have a new political prisoners

    • @global.citizens
      @global.citizens 10 месяцев назад +9

      @@Kniazhnami Belarus place is within EU, not russia, it should be led by people with a clear vision of the future, not obedient dictators
      I do believe a day will come when this will happen

    • @TheSuperappelflap
      @TheSuperappelflap 10 месяцев назад +3

      @@Kniazhnami From point of view of western Europe, we hope that you will be free soon and be able to decide your own place in the world, hopefully closer to us and further away from Putin. Our improving relations with the east since the fall of the iron curtain have been good for everyone involved, even, ironically, for semi-dicators like Viktor Orban in Hungary. Lukashenko could probably make more money doing business with us than with Putin.

  • @TroIIingThemSoftly
    @TroIIingThemSoftly 7 месяцев назад +4

    As an American, we never thought "Eastern Europe was ours". We just honor our Article 5 guarantee. They're our allies, and we'll defend them.

  • @virgilius7036
    @virgilius7036 9 месяцев назад +1

    Russia 145 million inhabitants, NATO 750 million Europeans and 340 Americans

  • @derelicts9503
    @derelicts9503 10 месяцев назад +49

    With every new video I am again and again amazed by the way you express your thoughts in a such an eloquent manner.
    This is a very rare gem of a channel, I feel it is an absolute privilege to be able to listen to you Vlad!

    • @CrankCase08
      @CrankCase08 10 месяцев назад +2

      Amazing fiction.

  • @piseag458
    @piseag458 10 месяцев назад +92

    Great video Vlad thanks!.. increasing democratic capacity, Putin would interpret that at as expansion of NATO.. welcoming Ukraine and becoming integrated with Europe is one way of increasing our democratic capacity,while Ukraine reminds us of what democratic values that we take for granted..

    • @ikaustralia
      @ikaustralia 10 месяцев назад

      Hasn't Zelensky cancelled the election and removed 11 opposing parties and every alternative media? So, much for democracy?

    • @falconeshield
      @falconeshield 10 месяцев назад

      Oh I'm not taking anything for granted. If America gets taken over by Project 2025 next year now that is terrible. Red America would not stop to its own states, it hungers for Mexico and Canada.

    • @henryselik7857
      @henryselik7857 10 месяцев назад

      Increasing "democratic capacity?" You mean like neo nazi Azov Stephan Bandera worshipping cleptocrat dictatorship Ukrainian autocratic who arrest non comment journalists, outlaw opposition political parties, and kidnap their citizens off the street to Shanghai them into sure death meat grinder front line military cannon fodder service?comment

  • @reinislodzins1509
    @reinislodzins1509 10 месяцев назад +6

    As a young Latvian, it's worrying to realize that there might be truth to this. As I see it, the title "Putin's Plot to Attack the Baltics in 2028" would work just as well.
    When looking at geography, it does seem like the Baltics are an easier target that we'd like to imagine.
    Of course, addressing these thoughts is very important for clarity, but imagining mid-20th century history repeating is not pleasant.

    • @willemtf
      @willemtf 10 месяцев назад +2

      As much as I worry and see the map too, with Finland, Sweden, and Poland, I will be shocked if they do not take swift action in an article 5 scenario. There is a worry that the US, Germany, France will ignore the baltic (esp. US) but even then, lots of the eastern flank have strong militaries and the messaging from nato is to defend every inch. With Ukraine, support is always indirect at best because direct support cannot be justified, but to invade article 5 nations, european union and economically integrated and important nations, everything would be justified. It would be tragic but I dont see a worst case scenario happening.

    • @polinaporechna2008
      @polinaporechna2008 9 месяцев назад +1

      The first one will definitely be Moldova or Georgia, as they are not part of NATO

  • @OzyWazza
    @OzyWazza 10 месяцев назад +37

    Let's see if he's *around* in 2028, let alone in a position to set invasion plans...

    • @colonelvgp
      @colonelvgp 9 месяцев назад

      Putler is just a face of that regime. This has no chance of finishing with Putin, unless the change of power doesn't happen in Russia itself, by the people (low chances of this happening currently).

    • @charlesburgoyne-probyn6044
      @charlesburgoyne-probyn6044 9 месяцев назад +1

      Yep sure going to be an interesting next few years who knows

    • @alessiocallegari1924
      @alessiocallegari1924 9 месяцев назад +2

      ​@@charlesburgoyne-probyn6044Not so much. Not when you and your family are involved in a war bigger than what we can imagine right now.

    • @charlesburgoyne-probyn6044
      @charlesburgoyne-probyn6044 9 месяцев назад

      @@alessiocallegari1924 in the last few years there had been more and stronger rumours in alternative media that a war in Europe more serious than the Yugoslav wars was no longer ghoulish fantasy and crazy talk. Also the incessant talk about all things WW2, the liberal use of Nazi as an insult the absurd comparison between the coronavirus disruption management as being like a war ( WW2 implied but not stated) which was the biggest disruption to ordinary life since WW2 , was becoming tiresome and increasingly a dangerous distraction from what was going on and what may happen in future indeed from the autumn of 2021 it was becoming apparent that Russia and Ukraine were set for a clash and by February was becoming inevitable and inescapable . When the war began i thought it was going to escalate into a direct clash with Russia which was mistaken on my part. Many years ago I stated to someone that during the cold war that there was almost no chance of the Soviet Union suddenly launching a mass nuclear attack on an otherwise peaceful if not tense situation and such a prospect would only happen as a result of a conventional war escalating the proxy war in Ukraine has turned out to be a thin edge of the wedge. In 2007 a 94 year old woman said to me that you people don't think we will get in a war again i said we had been involved in Iraq and Yugoslavia and she said no not a little thing like that a real war like we had in the 1940s and I asked with who and she said Russia but it won't happen for some years and I'll be dead by then and but remember what I said and that war was human nature.
      Nowadays many people know that the certainties that we have been accustomed to cant be counted on as before. So I'm open minded to the prospect of a direct clash with Russia and the possible use of nuclear weapons after all it is harder and harder as the years go by to justify such expensive things if they can't ever be used ever. Also in east Asia, there is much tension and China can't keep stating how Taiwan is unacceptable and ongoing harrasment but not making peace with it or if there is no negotiated unification then war is it's only option unless it formally accepts it's separation.

  • @gjk282
    @gjk282 10 месяцев назад +25

    One of the best on this channel yet, and that's to say something. Concise, comprehensive, encompassing. Thank you!

    • @VladVexler
      @VladVexler  10 месяцев назад +3

      Thanks so much!

  • @systemicbreakdown7864
    @systemicbreakdown7864 10 месяцев назад +42

    Russian should be able to exist within it's historical borders of the glorious 1300s Principality of Muscovy. And not a single nm beyond.

    • @vedser
      @vedser 10 месяцев назад +1

      Dream on.

    • @beth7935
      @beth7935 10 месяцев назад

      Sounds good!

  • @HoboHabilis
    @HoboHabilis 10 месяцев назад +16

    I’ve only watched hours of Frontlines Putin Files and a bunch of Kotkin lectures some Ioffe, so I’m no expert.
    You seem to have put it all together for us, thanks as always.

  • @sophiemoroz5744
    @sophiemoroz5744 10 месяцев назад +2

    Greetings from Russia, Voronezh
    Great work, it's important to remember about Putin's ambitions in Eastern Europe, glad that not only Greg Yudin (from time to time in Russian and rarely in English) is speaking about it

    • @beth7935
      @beth7935 10 месяцев назад

      Hope you're doing ok over there. And I hope things get better somehow. Empty words, I know, & not the point, but best wishes from Australia anyway.

    • @sophiemoroz5744
      @sophiemoroz5744 10 месяцев назад

      @@beth7935 thank you anyway :)
      Voronezh is the only big city (with more than one million people) close to the border with Ukraine, so it’s not always quiet here 😑

  • @helenrushful
    @helenrushful 10 месяцев назад +3

    By projecting himself into the future he creates a vision of the future with him in it. It’s the thinking of someone who already feels dead and needs to throw themselves a lifeline.

  • @stooge_mobile
    @stooge_mobile 10 месяцев назад +23

    Your best video yet!
    Succint, while being a fantastic overview of the situation.
    A clear philosophical and strategic overview of the most important factors in this war, and in the broader geopolitical struggle.
    I like your editing more on these videos as well. The sound is fantastic, your voice volume is clearer, and less obscured by background music.
    Well done!

    • @VladVexler
      @VladVexler  10 месяцев назад +2

      Thank you!

    • @MrGreg771
      @MrGreg771 9 месяцев назад

      According to the latest news, there is a siege in Moscow and St. Petersburg.The invincible Ukrainian army reached Siberia and Kamchatka.URAAAAA!!!!.

  • @HDdeiu
    @HDdeiu 10 месяцев назад +10

    My sincerest thanks for your work, Vlad!

    • @VladVexler
      @VladVexler  10 месяцев назад +2

      Sincerest thanks back at you!

  • @Matisto1
    @Matisto1 10 месяцев назад +25

    Thanks for the video Vlad, appreciate the visuals and not using music makes it easy to fully grasp. ❤

  • @terryfox9344
    @terryfox9344 10 месяцев назад +1

    I fear that you are correct about Putin. However, that's not the worst thing. The worst thing is that you are correct about US.

  • @fabioartoscassone9305
    @fabioartoscassone9305 9 месяцев назад +1

    the main problem of Putin is that his crew let him to win at Risiko. and Vlad P. thinks to be a fine strategist

  • @regular-joe
    @regular-joe 10 месяцев назад

    THANK YOU for the increased volume in this recording, it makes an enormous difference. 👏👍😁

  • @jhwheuer
    @jhwheuer 10 месяцев назад +9

    When the guy with the shittiest house on the block raises a stink because the leaves are blowing onto his property.

  • @larrygerry985
    @larrygerry985 10 месяцев назад +11

    There is 0 chance that Russia attacks NATO. Even if he was so bald, he is also depleting his resources (men and material). At a certain point Ukraine will be divided into 2 and then you will have a cold war part 2, build up of forces etc

    • @Grouse2275
      @Grouse2275 10 месяцев назад

      Russia will never attack NATO but Ukraine is going to have to negotiate a different border and NATO membership within few years. There’s really no other possibility.

  • @JonBvideostuff
    @JonBvideostuff 10 месяцев назад +28

    I really appreciate your analyses and promulgate them wherever I can...

  • @bazzakeegan2243
    @bazzakeegan2243 9 месяцев назад +2

    Really well said!🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦👍

  • @ChrisAlvarezAlvarezImaging
    @ChrisAlvarezAlvarezImaging 10 месяцев назад +2

    Lol... Good luck with all that Uncle Vlad.

  • @andraslippai3169
    @andraslippai3169 10 месяцев назад +5

    Attack with what? With wooden swords?

    • @stevenhendrix4768
      @stevenhendrix4768 10 месяцев назад

      Defend with what? the snowflake generation? They will demand their mommy drives them to the front in her SUV. Transgenders and the Alphabet rainbow community? I will be to old to fight in 2028 myself. By that time I will need my afternoon nap.

  • @decemvre
    @decemvre 10 месяцев назад +9

    It's good to be alarmed and all, but Lockheed is producing 156 F-35s every year.
    So by 2028, there will be 1600 of them.

  • @jamesthomaspaulJTP
    @jamesthomaspaulJTP 10 месяцев назад +4

    By 2028 he’ll only have horse and cavalry left…

  • @franciscoharrison6192
    @franciscoharrison6192 10 месяцев назад +1

    Excellent presentation

  • @SuperMagnum2011
    @SuperMagnum2011 10 месяцев назад +1

    Very interesting thank you.
    🇬🇧🇺🇦🤝👍

  • @DoloresJNurss
    @DoloresJNurss 10 месяцев назад +6

    So, if I hear you correctly, his plan is to nibble us away while keeping us distracted?

  • @edyslavico3761
    @edyslavico3761 10 месяцев назад +5

    Obv this would have been feasible if Ukraine folded in weeks. This is precisely why the west should support UA more.

  • @andrewwhite3793
    @andrewwhite3793 10 месяцев назад +18

    It will take him 15 to 20 years to build up what he has already lost and that's only if we lift sanctions. Giving Ukraine our military surplus that we were going to decommission anyway taught us that Russia Military and their equipment is 10 years behind NATO.
    Thank goodness

    • @Kastrenzo74
      @Kastrenzo74 10 месяцев назад +6

      10 is being generous.

    • @andrewwhite3793
      @andrewwhite3793 10 месяцев назад

      Yes you could be right as even our old stuff we give to Ukraine is more advanced@@Kastrenzo74

    • @effexon
      @effexon 10 месяцев назад

      @@user-iz4bi7km2dchina is big question mark in this. but russian and china policy changes (closed borders, anti west, under sanctions , increasing patriotism..) might make both stronger than 1+1... question is just are they willing to dedicate in this way and trust, or is it just superficial thing and they look each other as potential enemy like germany vs soviet union early WW2, techically allies but prepared to fight each other.

    • @karesi3842
      @karesi3842 10 месяцев назад +6

      @@user-iz4bi7km2d Almost everything you said is not true. russia has lost 300 thousand killed + seriously wounded, their production is slower than the loss of equipment, and their stocks of artillery shells are almost exhausted, so artillery is somewhat limited.

    • @effexon
      @effexon 10 месяцев назад

      @@user-iz4bi7km2dthat last one is excellent question... current western policies (Debatable was there anything to do other way) have driven them closely together, despite they dont think things same way, but they have common enemy that is west. It is also question of how that west as enemy handles time, who is to cave in first. One option is russia maybe has similar scenario as mussolini's italy and west can defeat them first, putting others in alliance in tough spot(though as this is Putin's major fear, unlikely he would put himself to that position). All of this is speculation as Im not military expert to judge,analyse positions. Or maybe china doesnt want war as much and would make compromise sooner favoring some other interests. As wars already, lot of this comes down to willpower. nazis and imperial japanese were extremely tough to fight as many of them simply didnt consider surrender as option, it was ingrained as not honorable thing especially for common infantryman. Thing is as some russians get ick from propaganda, some have succesfully tasted bigger salary and adrenaline and proud reactions at home from being as fighter. Then we have iran and some other wildcards in this mix, who dont have decisive power but could tip the scales just enough in some event or regionally to other direction.

  • @bradleywillis1654
    @bradleywillis1654 10 месяцев назад

    I’ve noticed about 90% of your assessments age like fine wine

  • @twisterwiper
    @twisterwiper 10 месяцев назад +1

    I completely agree with this analysis. But I think the West’s support of Ukraine is proportional to the status of Ukraine. We are not all-in because Ukraine doesn’t have a long-running ties with Europe and the West. But I think Putin is misreading us if he thinks this lack of resolve extends to the defense of any of the NATO member states. I hope he doesn’t test our resolve when it comes to NATO. It would be extremely foolish.

  • @petra1201
    @petra1201 10 месяцев назад +4

    This is all so totally depressing.

    • @henriikkak2091
      @henriikkak2091 10 месяцев назад +2

      The video /is/ about Russia

  • @nozhki-busha
    @nozhki-busha 10 месяцев назад +4

    Time that Putin upgraded to Windows 2023!

  • @tobiasb.2823
    @tobiasb.2823 10 месяцев назад +4

    I had to laugh out loud when I heard Vlad's parody of Biden at 13:47

  • @christinamuzzu6414
    @christinamuzzu6414 10 месяцев назад +2

    No background music - what a relief!
    I can finally hear every word.
    I listen every time I'm in the car, and when driving there are already so many other noises that it can get really difficult to hear voice over everything else.
    Love this style!

  • @seanphurley
    @seanphurley 10 месяцев назад +1

    General agreement, sometimes disagreement. But regardless I am in awe the vocabulary you use to explain your syllogisms. Concise and constrained. There are things I can learn from you.

  • @bungalowjuice7225
    @bungalowjuice7225 10 месяцев назад +7

    Beautifully put, Vlad. Thank you.

  • @jameslewis8227
    @jameslewis8227 10 месяцев назад +8

    Putin certainly understands American right-wing politics and politicians far better than the average American does. Putin also understands the American Christian-nationalism movement better than almost anyone, not just Americans.

    • @joca2903
      @joca2903 10 месяцев назад +3

      its the same as what they have in Russia. We share that.

    • @karesi3842
      @karesi3842 10 месяцев назад

      He funded it. He funds both ultraright and ultraleft with ony purpose of destabilisation and chaos

    • @jameslewis8227
      @jameslewis8227 10 месяцев назад

      @@joca2903 Christian-nationalism in the U.S. has it’s roots in the chauvinist-nationalistic/white-supremacist movements of the last century and a half, after slavery was abolished. In other words, it’s a somewhat reactionary movement that would like to see the U.S. return to the times when almost everything was owned and governed by a small number of white, Protestant land and sometimes slave owners. Putin knows that promoting the agenda of people like this will cause the most damage to the unity and progress of American society.
      In Europe, Putin is using Christian-nationalism to support his arguments in justification of his unprovoked acts of aggression and war against Russia’s neighbors. We can only hope that Putin doesn’t start thinking of himself as the reincarnation of Ivan IV, The Terrible.

  • @thomasjamison2050
    @thomasjamison2050 10 месяцев назад +6

    This supports my opinion that the Russian losses in Avdiivka have more to do with Putin putting on a show of never giving up no matter what and this fits wit the idea. What his actions are trying to say is 'you can't win, best you negotiate a settlement because I won't stop otherwise."
    But it also shows Putin up to be a complete idiot, which I don't doubt.

    • @renstein8210
      @renstein8210 10 месяцев назад

      Russian losses in Avdiivka have to do with the fact that Avdiivka is a fortress and has been built as a fortress since at least 2014.

    • @thomasjamison2050
      @thomasjamison2050 10 месяцев назад

      @@renstein8210 True, but why are Russians being so conspicuously stupid?

  • @xGoodOldSmurfehx
    @xGoodOldSmurfehx 10 месяцев назад +1

    Uncle Vlad would send his armies and then wonder why they are no longer answering his phone calls after a few days

  • @Juan_lauda
    @Juan_lauda 10 месяцев назад +1

    Putin’s analysis rests on the dismissal of Eastern Europe as being an autonomous military forces in their own right.
    He did the same with Ukraine.

  • @Urgelt
    @Urgelt 10 месяцев назад +7

    The West, arguably, does not have a well-considered strategy.
    Ukraine, however, does.
    It's a mistake to dismiss Ukraine's strategy as merely begging for Western equipment and supplies and trying to seize the odd trench from the Russians. That is not what they are doing at all.
    Russia lacks precision weapons, and their kill chain is ridiculously lengthy. Rather than adjust those deficiencies, they are hitting fixed targets - civilian targets, mostly - and trying to exploit their manpower advantage to drive Ukrainian troops back. They hope to crush Ukraine's will to exist.
    Ukraine has a huge advantage in precision weapons and a quick kill chain. The purpose of front-line troops is singular: find targets for their precision weapons. Targets deeper behind Russian lines are found with the help of intelligence assets, largely from the West.
    When Ukraine's front-line troops run out of targets, they move forward, re-establish contact and find more targets.
    The point is not to seize territory, or at least not the initial point. The point is to inflict so many casualties and equipment losses that Russia will no longer have the ability to project power, to disable Russia's military.
    Russia is an empire full of conquered people, over 100 ethnicities across 11 time zones, held together and dominated by force. Disable the force and the whole thing will collapse. The Muscovy empire will become a failed state, splintered into pieces, unable to pose a threat to its neighbors.
    There will be unintended consequences if this strategy succeeds. Indeed, it is not clear that as a question of policy, the Western nations want this outcome. But they lack a coherent strategy of their own. They hesitate.
    Nothing now stands in Ukraine's way to prevent them from executing their strategy. Russia's own actions are playing right into Ukraine's hands - their futile counteroffensives, their relentless determination to attack Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, their atrocities, and their inability to equalize their lack of precision or their lengthy kill chain, all help to actualize Ukraine's strategy.
    Casualties are mounting. Equipment is being destroyed. Russia's training status is degrading, and their soldiers don't want to be there. Losses are staggering, more every day.
    Already, Russia is becoming frail. Defenses elsewhere in Russia are drawing down. They are resorting to positioning troops behind front-line units with orders to shoot soldiers who retreat. Russian forces in Armenia, Syria, Georgia, and on the border with China have been gravely reduced. Kazakhstan can no longer rely on Russian troops to preserve its autocracy. Prigosan's little mutiny went unchallenged. Exhaustion approaches.
    The West does not have a well-thought-out strategy. But Ukraine does. If Ukraine succeeds, Russia will not threaten them again. It won't even exist.

    • @helstein
      @helstein 10 месяцев назад +2

      Thank you!

    • @The.Curious
      @The.Curious 10 месяцев назад

      Zelenski would be pleased with your positive spin of facts on the ground and your hopeful take detached from reality. Consider sending him a letter. Seems like he is running out of encouragement among both, his immediate and western allies.

    • @Urgelt
      @Urgelt 10 месяцев назад

      @@The.Curious you have not been paying attention. The West is sending scads of equipment and funds, more every day. Ukraine will soon receive funds confiscated from Russian oligarchs held in Western banks. And Russia is now using tanks built 70 years ago. Russia's Black Sea Fleet has suffered terrible losses, and nowhere are Russian counterattacks resulting in anything but mass casualties.
      This isn't spin. It's just the truth. Ukraine is pursuing a strategy of exhausting Russia's military, and it's working.

  • @zawiszaczarny7876
    @zawiszaczarny7876 10 месяцев назад +5

    If Putin had 300-400k soliders and tons of equipment in Belarus and would attack now, he might have a chance for short term gains, than he could threat with nukes to deescalate before nato snufs this army out of existance, but in 5 years he might not have personel to do so, not to mention eastern europe is militarising like there is no tommorow and would mop up this army faster than it was mobilised.

    • @EricT01
      @EricT01 10 месяцев назад +1

      He says he will invade, not that he will be successful. 😂

  • @timtrewyn453
    @timtrewyn453 10 месяцев назад +7

    Prudent planning would assume Putin will not make mistakes, but makes provision for leveraging those mistakes, e.g. Ukrainian military leadership.

  • @padreorgullso4168
    @padreorgullso4168 9 месяцев назад +1

    Well said!

  • @TheAegis1000
    @TheAegis1000 9 месяцев назад

    Putin came up in an era when Russia (i.e. the USSR) sat eye to eye with the US. He hasn't taken kindly to the idea that Russia doesn't have that kind of status anymore ...

  • @simontaylor2143
    @simontaylor2143 10 месяцев назад +25

    "We need only kick in the door for the whole rotten structure to fall". Except that this seems to be even more wishful thinking than it was in 1940, given the performace of Russian troops in Ukraine. Even a disunited response from NATO would likely flatten a Russian force after a further 5 years of decline (during which Poland and the Baltics will further militarise)

    • @simontaylor2143
      @simontaylor2143 10 месяцев назад +12

      @@RusssianPerson exactly. If anything the Russian army will be weaker than ever after another 5 years of sanctions, given their more sophisticated equipment requires imported tech they can't make domestically

    • @covfefe1787
      @covfefe1787 10 месяцев назад

      Poland wont militarize anymore Tusk who is a eurocrat won the elections and when he takes office hell offshore all defense to Germany France and the U.S he also pledged to cancel most of the contracts made by the outgoing conservative Law and Justice party.

    • @HectorGonzalez-fz6ws
      @HectorGonzalez-fz6ws 10 месяцев назад +3

      I can't see how the Ruzzians will be stronger in five years,

    • @simontaylor2143
      @simontaylor2143 10 месяцев назад +4

      @@HectorGonzalez-fz6ws they won't, they'll be weaker is the point I was making

    • @TheSuperappelflap
      @TheSuperappelflap 10 месяцев назад

      As this conflict has shown, Russian military was already in decline before this war. Russian population and economy is also in decline. The regime would fail anyway if they didnt attack. If, big if, Russia can secure victory in Ukraine, and annex Belarus, they will have a population increase that is needed to keep the imperial economic machine going and keep cash flowing to Moscow, thus prolonging the regime.
      If they dont win, they were going to fail anyway so nothing is lost except the lives of a lot of people which Putin doesnt care about.

  • @surfingonmars8979
    @surfingonmars8979 10 месяцев назад +5

    Putin couldn’t attack New Jersey!

  • @JonBvideostuff
    @JonBvideostuff 10 месяцев назад +1

    Insightful again...

  • @chrismitchell4622
    @chrismitchell4622 9 месяцев назад +2

    With all the donations to Ukraine NATO production will be ready so good luck Putin like Sadam we will have to come and get you!

  • @alexalford7874
    @alexalford7874 10 месяцев назад +2

    If Ukraine showed us anything about Russia's military, a war with NATO will not go well for Russia

  • @andrerothweiler9191
    @andrerothweiler9191 10 месяцев назад +8

    Putin 2020: We demand Yalta 2 and new iron curtain.
    Putin 2022: Finnland in NATO, yeah I am fine with that 😂

    • @green9766
      @green9766 10 месяцев назад

      they are not fine with that, dont you see that there is war going on... so if u wage war on someone, that means u are not fine with what they do, not the opposite, cmon pure logic

  • @Pali65
    @Pali65 10 месяцев назад +4

    Every political leader in the West should listen to this.

    • @CorePathway
      @CorePathway 10 месяцев назад

      Especially US Republicans.

  • @ElRabito
    @ElRabito 10 месяцев назад +8

    NATO would destroy Putler in two weeks 🤣

  • @Freddy-sp5wq
    @Freddy-sp5wq 10 месяцев назад +1

    Regarding the title of this talk, if Russia attacked NATO the war would last about an hour.

    • @Freddy-sp5wq
      @Freddy-sp5wq 10 месяцев назад

      @@huggestpiles yeh a meat wave 1000 kilometres high.

  • @donaldmackerer9032
    @donaldmackerer9032 9 месяцев назад +1

    A very interesting video ! Really well thought out analysis of the situation . definitely very thought-provoking ! I really like it and give it a two thumbs up .😊👍👍

  • @unfixablegop
    @unfixablegop 10 месяцев назад +55

    "Putin sees us better than we see him"
    I don't fully agree. I think we see better because starting to reason from a position of reality is much superior to living on a fantasy.
    I do halfway agree though, because our real flaw is not acting on our insights if we feel it will hurt the next election.

    • @shaunvduke
      @shaunvduke 10 месяцев назад +15

      Me neither, Putin sees Russia as a superpower which its not, and behind Ukraine is Poland. And as weak and divided as he sees NATO... Poland is making sure there's no chance of Russia coming back.

    • @loganmancini8759
      @loganmancini8759 10 месяцев назад +3

      But let’s not forget that Finland join nato and Sweden is not too far behind if he is planning to invade nato he is siding his own fate because he actually gotten nato new members. So he made them more stronger and him self more weaker.

    • @dwightk.schrute8696
      @dwightk.schrute8696 10 месяцев назад +4

      "And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music"
      If we were so good about understanding our own internal impulses and incentives driving them we would be living in a much better and simpler world. Reducing something to a single dimension like saying "he's a madman living in a fantasy" isn't really helpful, it's a bit handwavy ignorance in the same way as saying "god did it".

    • @unfixablegop
      @unfixablegop 10 месяцев назад +5

      @@dwightk.schrute8696
      I think Vlad has a point when he says that being a dictator makes people lose it over time.

    • @antonlatukha5845
      @antonlatukha5845 10 месяцев назад

      Notice how he played European country leaders before he started Ukraine war.
      In Russian there is a theme on talking and studying western democracies and liberalism weaknesses, and there are many.
      If deluded narcissists, can become succesful and successfully live the whole life. So can him rise.
      He uses dualism, darkness, killings. Fear and terror works, genocide of other nations and giving empty homes to own dark people works, it makes dark people happy, Stockholm syndrome works, people who use "reason" do not think about using Stockholm syndrome because it is illogical, but in reality, in reverse logic in darkness it works.
      They indeed don't understand him, only professional powerful maniac can.

  • @jonmce1
    @jonmce1 10 месяцев назад +4

    I think a very good analysis but some areas I will disaagree with what you state is his analysis of the west. The west has always been like herding chickens but if Putin believes as you state, he is going against historical reality. While it can be reasonably argued that the west will not find it easy to bring its full resources to meet his threat, they don't need to and the incompetence and corruption of his regime is a major impetiment for him. He needs to marshall all his resources while having a GDP less than Canada's and a population of only 145 million. The resources of the west are massively larger than Russia's in manpower , economy, military budgets and technology. That is not simply ignoring Russia's capability but remains a fact. So far he has demonstrated a serious wariness of putting the urban populations at risk or hitting the elderly's pensions. While it is true Russia can produce a larger military with the same budget, it remains his budget so far and he has been seen to cutting parts of it is not greeatly bigger than Britains. He can brainwash kids in the education system but for practical purposes that at least 10 years away. For all those who love to think Russia historically will put up with failure, consider, Afganistan, ww1 and Japan wars led to serious unrest. Ukraine has been a massive failure for Putin militarily, economically and politically but as yet has not effected the urban population greatly. Even if he was able to get some territory in a peace strategically he will have a heavily armed enemy which can take a straight run on his Ukrainian border to Moscow and that force will have NATO involvement. In the north he faces the complete loss of the Baltic which is now because of his actions a NATO lake. His behaviour has not resulted in the west backing off or falling apart but instead it is almost universally re arming. On the other hand Russia so far has been heavily relying on massive legacy equipment from the USSR which his is burning up in Ukraine. Russia is not USSR with less then half the population and that declining, no Warsaw Pact and few loyal followers in the stans. In fact China is already working to break away the stans. Any attack on the Baltics will involve an attack on about 15 NATO countries militaries.

  • @judyArsh
    @judyArsh 10 месяцев назад +12

    Well said. I think the failure to act in 2014 secured a very dark future for us all.

    • @MrGreg771
      @MrGreg771 9 месяцев назад +2

      2014 coup. Soon after, there was a massacre in Odessa (dozens of people were burned alive). Ethnic Russians living in Ukraine were treated as subhuman.
      Their language and culture was being oppressed. For 9 years the Ukrainian military has been indiscriminately shelling civilians living in Donbas.

    • @projectdcb7525
      @projectdcb7525 9 месяцев назад

      @@MrGreg771the ethnic Russians started it they began acting like subhumans first so they are treated as such

  • @VeiwersTok
    @VeiwersTok 10 месяцев назад +1

    Bro, Enough Research=We don't Take sides- Analyse, Simplfy& Deliver!!!

  • @pavelstebl9966
    @pavelstebl9966 9 месяцев назад +1

    Again, well analysed and articulated!

  • @alexbd2727
    @alexbd2727 10 месяцев назад +13

    I was pleasantly surprised to see citation of Greg Yudin commentary. Interested to know about other russian speaking scientists and/or public speakers which you are checking regularly, Vlad.
    Well thoughtful video as always. Keep your good work.

    • @sophiemoroz5744
      @sophiemoroz5744 10 месяцев назад

      Vlad quite regularly mentions Greg Yudin :)
      I also remember Kirill Martynov

    • @alexbd2727
      @alexbd2727 10 месяцев назад

      @@sophiemoroz5744 I guess the time between the videos played tricks for me because I do not remember Vlad mentioned Yudin in previous works.
      Although I check Vlad's Chat YT channel regularly, it seems some information slipped through my head effortlessly ...
      Thanks for pointing this out.

    • @VladVexler
      @VladVexler  10 месяцев назад

      @@alexbd2727Greg and I come from quite different blends of intellectual traditions, but we have a very similar view of this war and the Putin regime. Greg is the best guide to this war for Russians. Quite remarkable for a young man of 40.

  • @Yutani_Crayven
    @Yutani_Crayven 10 месяцев назад +8

    06:30 Wouldn't Western support for Ukraine - a country that *isn't* in the EU and *isn't* in NATO - contradict this? Surely, even a multi decadal despot isn't delusional enough to believe that at the stage that we're at, anymore? (edit: There's a follow up bit at 8:05, haven't finished that yet.)

    • @Yutani_Crayven
      @Yutani_Crayven 10 месяцев назад +4

      Hope for the best, prepare for the worst?

    • @TheSuperappelflap
      @TheSuperappelflap 10 месяцев назад

      Western support for Ukraine, and Ukraine slowly moving out of the Russian sphere of influence, was one of the major reasons for this war.

  • @sshender3773
    @sshender3773 10 месяцев назад +12

    I've been saying for over 20 years that the idea that Liberal democracies are somehow more innately robust and will always prevail when faced with authoritarian foes is probably dogmatic wishful thinking, the likes of which are plenty in our neck of the woods. The first and only book that I've come across to date who made a similar claim was Lee Harris' "The Suicide of Reason: Radical Islam's Threat to the West", and while it focused on the hot topic of the day (it came out in the mid-oughties), a lot of the same stuff applies to the West's incompetence and indecisiveness vis-à-vis Russia, and now the Palestinian mind pathogens (to use Gad Saad's term).
    Dan Schueftan is a great Israeli National Security researcher I recommend people listen to to get a clear eyed perspective on the Israeli-Arab conflict and the delusional Western dogmas that underpin it (alas, widely shared by large swathes of the Israeli public too). While most of his online stuff is in Hebrew, there are some lectures in English and German too. The reason I bring him up is that he has a saying I particularly like which is: In order to survive in the Middle East, Israel has to be Sparta facing out while Athens facing in, and Israel is possibly the only country that has pulled this off to varying degrees of success so far (unfortunately, the recent religious right's ascent is putting the Athens part at risk).
    The West needs to adopt a similar stance if it is to survive in its current form. Let go of its moral and cultural relativism and suicidal self loathing. Explain to its populace that they cannot keep living in a bubble while the world is on fire around them, and some sacrifices must be made in order to keep the ship from sinking. That means a much more hawkish foreign policy. Taking out Iran's nuclear and military facilities would be a good start for restoring confidence and dignity, and signaling to the other axis of "resistance" that we mean business. This will show that the West is serious about preventing a second (and arguably worse) North Korea situation from taking root in the Middle East. Simply carrying a big stick isn't enough. On the contrary, waving it around without the political will to use it only makes it worse than doing nothing in the first place. The West is rightly perceived as weak, indecisive and without any long term strategy. The stuttering we're witnessing now on both Iran and its proxies, Russia and even China is an utter disgrace and a recipe for all out war.

    • @bobsteve4812
      @bobsteve4812 10 месяцев назад

      What kind of sacrifices are we talking about?

    • @sshender3773
      @sshender3773 10 месяцев назад

      ​@@bobsteve4812That's a good question. The economic is the obvious one: buckle down in favor of higher military expenditures and support for countries who are "in the trenches" like Ukraine. Europeans aren't even asked to go fight. Simply accept the extra costs incurred by higher energy prices and aid packages, and the accompanying decline in our quality of life. Our leaders need to explain this to their populace to prevent our enemies and populists within our gates from exploiting these sentiments of resentment.

    • @bobsteve4812
      @bobsteve4812 10 месяцев назад

      @@sshender3773 I feel that’s definitely happening in places where it’s needed, like the Baltics and Poland. France to a lesser extent. However places like Germany, or Canada or Italy etc aren’t exactly faced by any threats and are already protected by the US nuclear umbrella and US bases so I don’t see why they should spend more money on the military. They won’t ever be in a Israel-like situation which is already very unique so, well I understand the concern, it doesn’t seem necessary for most countries

    • @sshender3773
      @sshender3773 10 месяцев назад

      ​@@bobsteve4812Thank you for your reply. A few points:
      1. The US' nuclear umbrella should not be taken for granted. Ditto Trump. Plus, frankly, as much as I despise The Orange and right wing populism, he does have a few valid points, one of which is that Europe has not been pulling its weight. Europe has outsourced its security to the US and spent the money in part on its social systems instead. So in effect, the US has been paying for the European welfare states, which I would argue is a) unfair and b) unsustainable.
      2. Threats don't boil down to direct military invasions. The collapse of the US made world order (with all its many faults), will spell the collapse of globalization and global trade whose catastrophic economic fallout will reverberate globally, but much more so in the affluent countries of Europe whose social contract implies a certain quality of life which will be undermined.
      So I would argue that we're at a Rubicon moment where we either go all in to ensure Ukraine wins, Taiwan stands and Israel deals with Iran, or we're in for total chaos that will end up costing us MUCH more.

    • @bobsteve4812
      @bobsteve4812 10 месяцев назад

      @@sshender3773 No problem at all, I enjoy a bit of corgial talk on issues like this, thanks for keeping along mate.
      Anyway, all you said are fair and rather true points. Though the US led world order is rather unique. Only the British Empire before it could secure the oceans and airways of the world. However no nation in Europe, due to financial, demographic, and cultural reasons, is able to fill in that roll, even with more spending. Maybe in a united EU army, however even then things are up in the air.
      In fact European global presence has weakened in recent years, with France being nearly kicked out of Africa due to coups and the UK running out of money for its navy. That, along with extremely strong cultural aversions to a strong military in Germany, that doesnt leave many players left to take up the mantle.
      In reality I see more of a UN-like organization monitoring the oceans of the world in the US's absence. More cooperation among the major nations with coastlines, from the UK to Brazil to South Africa. No one nation today can handle paying for all the global logistics needed for a global navy, especially as populations age.
      Overall, either there will be chaos on the seas in the future, or there be a global cooperative effort in the US's place in my opinion. What do you think?

  • @DiogoJ1
    @DiogoJ1 10 месяцев назад

    It's his funeral. Attacking NATO, means NATO can retaliate at full force.

  • @nancyblair5922
    @nancyblair5922 10 месяцев назад

    okay Vlad, now you're scaring me.
    Love from Canada

  • @sweetleaf9668
    @sweetleaf9668 10 месяцев назад +21

    Слава Україні! Героям слава! 🇺🇦

  • @networkgeekstuff9090
    @networkgeekstuff9090 10 месяцев назад +15

    I wish we would be able to stop talking about half of Europe as "Eastern Europe" as this is a term coined by UN on request of Staling as requirement to join UN. If you ask anyone in vysegrad countries (e.g. Poland / Czechia), they would tell you they are "Central Europe". Eastern Europe geographically starts with Ukraine/Belarus.

    • @ansersoftware4463
      @ansersoftware4463 10 месяцев назад +8

      Good old "Eastern Europe starts east of your country"

    • @networkgeekstuff9090
      @networkgeekstuff9090 10 месяцев назад +2

      ​@@ansersoftware4463 I understand your sentiment if you are looking at it from 20th century cold war lenses. But if you look at culture and longer history, Poland and Czechia were white christian nations that after WW1 started their own independent democracy states with a great success. Putting them together with Russia as Czarist orthodox autoritarian state culture just because of "Slavic" proto-language grounds is silly on multiple levels from the perspective of people of those nations. And my argument also gets support from the climate and geography perspective where "central europe" is a terminus technicus.

  • @christophstrasen1567
    @christophstrasen1567 10 месяцев назад +10

    Thank you Vlad. God I wish more politians would watch your channel. At least people in here could spread it in their circle of friends or whatever local party office where there may be a slim chance it gets recognized.
    Heck, maybe translating Vlads best-ofs into some of the many European languages would help in some places

  • @niklasdahlgren7641
    @niklasdahlgren7641 10 месяцев назад +1

    By that time the only thing he will have left is either nukes or medieval infantry with the rate he is loosing troops and equipment.

  • @nodrogj1
    @nodrogj1 9 месяцев назад

    "Our political leaders are not stupid. Except the many who are and are completely inadequate for political office"
    Oof