Poland: Europe's Eastern Shield
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- Опубликовано: 19 май 2024
- Europe is banking on Poland to valiantly secure its Eastern frontier, recognising its pivotal role along the CSTO's Western border and Poland's steadfast backing of Ukraine. However, a deeper examination reveals tensions between Warsaw and Brussels over everything from legal standards to concerns about recent large-scale procurements, raising questions about Poland's integration within the EU framework. With Poland's economic position and its role in European defence under the microscope, a critical question emerges: Can Poland effectively balance its commitment to regional security with its EU obligations, and what impact will its disputes with the EU have on its political future within the bloc? To answer that, we turn to our panel of experts:
On the panel this week:
- Mujtaba Rahman (Eurasia Group)
- Michał Baranowski (GMF)
- Edward Hunter Christie (FIIA)
Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 05:20
PART 2 - 22:07
PART 3 - 37:06
Outro - 1:04:23
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Just a small request to the authors of the channel and all people west of the Oder.
Historically, the Russian lands on the northern border are not Kaliningrad, but Królewiec, or Koningsberg in German (sorry neighbors for the mistake). For Poles and many other people, Kalinin, the person after whom the city was named, is a criminal. It was he who signed the sentence for Polish officers murdered in Katyn and Ostaszków. Remember that Polish officers of various nationalities were murdered: Belarusians, Tatars, Jews and many others.
This is Königsberg.
Your monarchism supplicant comment amounts to narrow minded, moth-balled, ball-less and beyond absurd junk
@@aprescoup your absurd immature accusations lack proof and logic
@@metanoian965Go read some history books, not Russian propaganda, unless you plan on cultivating your ignorance.
@@Zazyr go read how to think clearly
@@metanoian965
Oh really? I guess the rest of the world is wrong. You're an idiot.. 😂
Koreans offer deals without a digger held behind the back. Poland did a deal without Germany for they Leopards but later we found out that, if our behaviour against Russia's businesses in Europe were to harsh then German government blackmail to cut spare parts and service for them. That lesson was projected on France as well, because they are involved in Russian economy to much to not to try the same trick as Germans.
‘Digger’?
It’s crazy how few people know what happened in 1920, I was born and mostly raised in Poland. I didn’t know of the Soviet communists marched west to take over all of Europe until a few years ago. The kind of misery, violence, and poverty that communism brought to Eastern Europe, going across all of Europe is just inconceivable!
Now its US, Uk bringing misery to the world, with their cosntant globalist wars...
You should check what happened 10 years after that in 30s in Soviet Union (Polish Operation of the NKVD), just few years after Holodomor. 100k+ genocided only because they were Poles. Even in Poland it's not well known and outside it's pretty much completely unknown. Stalin was no better, maybe even worse than Austrian painter.
To make life in the West too easy to be true, somewhere life has to be made too hard to be true. It's one world.
What nonsense, they did not “march west to expand” there were civil wars and revolutions erupting across Eastern Europe, the soviets tried to aid the native communists in these countries.
The fact that the Soviets pulled back when the other communist revolutionaries could not secure victory is evidence alone that the Soviets were not expansionistic, as they could have easily committed to invading Europe and being forever at war with capitalist countries.
On the topic of part 3 questions about Poland (and other Eastern flank nations) donating their brand new gear to another state attacked by Russia (Moldova, Georgia).
The reason the donation of the post-soviet equipment was such a crucial aid in the first stage of the Russian invasion is because Ukrainian troops were already trained to effectively operate this type of equipment. Even if the local variants and versions differed, it was like switching between Nokia 3210 and 3310, not like switching from Samsung to iPhone.
Not only that, Ukrainians would, most likely, have spare parts for the delivered equipment in store and facilities and maintenance personnel adapted to performing needed repairs.
Delivering modern Abrams M1A2 tanks to Georgians who, until now, served on T-72s or T-55s would require extensive retraining of the crews and support personnel. This isn't something that can be done within a week or two (except, *perhaps* loaders?). From radio and intercom use, weapons training and maintenance, NBC training, tactics and field repairs to things as basic as muscle memorisation - 4th generation tanks like M1A2 require a well-trained crews to operate correctly, unlike the 2nd/3rd generation T-variants "People's Tanks".
As gen. Andrzejczak said in one of his interviews after retirement, the leak of the output of that particular war game wasn't for no reason.
First they set up an unfair, unrealistic condition, to train polish commanders to fight in harsh enwironment, against all ods in the worst case scenario. Second reason for such setup, was to scare polititans and the society a little bit and make them to spend more on military.
dobrze wymawiacie nazwiska :)
EU wasn’t „threthening to kick Poland out of the union over the moves it was making domestically”. First-THERE IS NO WAY TO KICK A COUNTRY OUT OF EU. A country may decide to leave, but neither other countries nor EU institutions can terminate EU membership of a wayward member-country.
Second-EU was enforcing laws Poland agreed to comply with by becoming a member, so this wasn’t issue of domestic policy but of breaking the law-both international and domestic.
Imperialist EU tried to submit free and independent Poland to Brussels rule using every possible way of imposing pressure, blackmailing the country into submission and they got their success by putting their man - the lier Tusk at the power but not for long, in long term they will fail just like Ze Reichm Russin Empire and Soviet Union before, because Polish Republic always prevaila against the evil imperialists.
Not bad at all - lots of awkward questions asked, and your guests were pretty much on the ball. But darn it, I actually live here and quite like it, believed in Fukuyama's thesis, but it seems it's a case of "here we go again" for the fourteenth (or is it the fifteenth) time. O well, time to get grandad's old shovel, start digging the shelter, and stock up on some dried goods. Sheesh...........
52:00 that was a pretty extreme exaggeration, nobody expected them to be ‘kicked out of the EU’, that wasn’t a possibility even for Hungary - and still isn’t - let alone become a ‘pariah’ (?) somehow. The best was a bit of isolation from the rest of the Sary, but like rates- the conflict wasn’t at its peak, there was a de facto retreat from the notional issues
Brussels doesn’t value ‘defence’ as highly, it is opposed to the changes in geopolitical and economic interests of its more powerful members- it endorsed Tusk despite him making no institutional or legislative changes, it was clearly straightforward ‘this guys policy’ as posed to ‘system’ background more so (the Ziobro changes under PiS were stupid and gave fuel to the opponent’s fire without accomplishing much or anything good)
Turkey and Poland aren’t comparable
Poland always was and still is pro-EU (all surveys puts us on the very top) but we are not happy where EU heeding right now. I tend to disagree with Tusk more than less but ii still hope he bring lawfulnesses and cut nepotism and corruption.
And on the other hand guys like Sholz and even Macron are not same level as he is - this guy political intuition is top-notch (in Poland comparable only to Kaczyński himself) and now he has a lot more European experience. Secondly Poland now and decade ago are two different countries - economically, militarily and politically he has now much more leverages to play with. So we all hope Brussels will change their stance to "lets work it out", as last time it was "take money and shut the **** up".
51:03 well that and the thing that happened before more so
Poland: Europe's Eastern Paper Thin Shield
Paper thin? Hardly.
I duno what you don't understand about armaments procurements? It really looks like you don't have any idea what you are talking about.
1st - it's much easier to operate modern, highly digitalised equipment than the old soviet one. So even if we consider comeback to mobilisation it would be much more effective with new toys. Where you see any contradiction here?
2nd- polish army will have artillery support on every organisational level. We wont be able to achieve air superiority on our own, and strong artillery should allow us to took some targets behind enemy line.
3rd- barrel artillery is much cheaper to use.
I love it when geopolitical podcasts completely ignore history in favor of ideological rhetoric then proceed to postulate contemporary events based on ahistorical notions. Great stuff….
You have an audio skip at 60:00
😂pis party lol
My padna's in the UK would say Tusk took the piss out of Poland.
1. PiS is NOT a right wing party, it claims to be and try to create an image of it but it's a socialist left-wing party. Look at what someones do instead of what they preach.
2. There are no "Far right" parties currently in Poland. Konfederacja which i assume you are referring to is a confederacy of a libertarian party, a monarchist libertarian party and a nationalist party.
Saying it's "far right" because there are some people who might be considered that is like saying that the US democrat party is "far left, communist extremist" because there are individuals in that party who support such movement in the US.
3. PiS excuse of banning judges who step out of line is actually valid (the legislation itself is immoral sure but i am talking about their claim) a lot of judges in Poland are in fact still left-overs or kids of high communists officials. There is not a single instance when someone who is in the "elites" went to court with someone - and actually lost. It is commonly known and accepted that if you have a court case with someone who is a political elite or a family of political elite you WILL LOSE any court case no matter how overwhelming proof you have, it happened countless of times.
4. Tusk is actually a great example of "3" he is one of the biggest perpetrator of the "Amber Gold" affair with overwhelming odds pointing at Tusk scamming a lot of people for millions of $. However there was never even been a court case against him, not even a trial to remove his political immunity. Nobody cares because he is the political elite and judges are extremly corrupt in Poland.
4. Remember that the Polish political class cooperates with each other. Against the nation. Regardless of the party, including the so-called "Confederation".
Tusk was not prosecuted because it would mean retaliation after he returned to power. Just like now.
Besides, PO and PiS are responsible for the biggest scandal in the history of Poland, which they committed together. They stole USD 2 billion from the bank "SKOK Wołomin".
Tusk = supports 447
compensation for Rusin. $ or Polish lands
A German agent for GroBdeutschland
No far right parties eh? “Konfederacja is actually leftist” as you proceed to list all right wing ideologies which make of the confederation, liberalism is right wing, libertarianism is right wing, nationalism is often right wing, monarchist??? You just do not have a solid understanding of the political spectrum and what constitutes left and right. The Overton window has shifted right across all western nations, Poland is far closer to Russia than you would like to believe, also, the democrats in the US are a SOLIDLY right-wing party not center not center-left but right wing.
@@P.L.U.C.K.
Does the division into "left" and "right" still make sense nowadays?
I would rather say that socialist and authoritarian parties dominate in Poland. This is a legacy of the times of the Polish People's Republic and the only party called PZPR. This was a copy of the Soviet Communist Party of the Soviet Union.
Full democratization along the Western lines has not been introduced in Poland. Politicians are not interested in this because it would weaken their power and position. Currently, they are a privileged ruling caste outside the law and ordinary citizens.
This caste controls the media and the education system. Basic tools of social engineering.
This means that citizens do not really know how democracy works in Poland... or even how democracy works in Western countries. For years, I have been telling Poles about, for example, the function of a referendum or changing the ordinance. I might as well try to move Mount Everest.
Of course, there are no truly liberal parties in Poland. Why? Because liberalism would weaken the position of the politicians' caste.
Outside of this system, Poles have little in common with Russia.
First of all, the difference lies in mentality. That's why Poles often fought against Russia, staged uprisings against Russians and hated something called "Russification".
P.S. But 85% of Poles (currently) do not intend to fight the Russians. We don't like them but that's all. Especially since the result of the actions of Polish politicians (social engineers) is that the general Polish society... heartily hates politicians.
@@P.L.U.C.K. "the overton window has shifted right across all western nations"
yeah that's why we have more immigration than ever before, more social distribution, normalization of lgbt, promotion of those in school, saying anything against feminist agenda will make you drown in accusations of sexism and we have the biggest individual taxes that have ever existed in the history of mankind.
The overton window shifted so extremly to the left that any kind of fighting back against it make extremists and radicals like you think that the entire world is "moving to the right" where in fact is trying to get away from the communist dystopia that we were moving rapidly towards. We are still moving there but at a much slower pace because of people finally waking up to this crap.
"Poland is far closer to russia" geographicly yeah, in terms of politics... i have yet to find a singly party in our parliment that is pro-russian...
Democrats in the US are far left, it's just you are an extremist leftist and from your perspective they look like centrists.
But sure, just throw some random statement with zero argumentations, that's what extremists do best.
Ukraine in its current state cannot be admitted to the EU. almost their entire agricultural sector is in the hands of Arab, Americans and who knows who corporations from outside Europe. we now see how they are trying to destroy European farmers to create a market for themselves. Letting Ukraine in in this state would be suicide for the whole EU
The EU has sold off the agricultural sector itself, Ukraine will not endanger that.