Historian who predicted every US election correctly reveals his 2024 call
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- Опубликовано: 20 сен 2024
- Leading US historian Allan Lichtman has predicted that Kamala Harris will make history as the first female president in November.
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Everyone in the comments: "Sure, the model is about who will be voted for, but DON'T FORGET ABOUT VOTING!!!!"
... and keep on defending your democracy, all the way to January.
models are simplified reality in the end. The checklist here is an indicator, but I doubt it's bulletproof. So yes, vote.
Yes vote, just don't vote blue
The keys are actually based on Stability in Mathematics. Love how he belittles Nate Silver's poll averages and graphs.
Nate does a pretty good job of that himself every time he opens his mouth.
I know I think Nate Silver uses polling for his predictions.
Wonderful,kamala Harris is my hero u made my day.
Nate Silver looks at polls because he has no other source of information and no real method of predicting things.
Nate Silver is wishy washy and very condescending with Professor Lichtman. I suspect he has a fragile ego.
Harris will win if people vote. Not because this guy says so. Do not regret not voting. So Vote.
Vote !!!
Yep. I trust Rickman's historical analysis of the current political climate based on math. However, his predictions come true if we vote Harris and Waltz in.
@@EoinLynch-v1y Ruined economy maybe world war 3 and another fake president like president like Biden. No way I'm voting for her
Yes vote, but just don't be a weak minded propaganda zombie and vote blue like the status quo tells you to.
Yes, please vote !!!!
It won’t happen unless it’s voted for!!!!
Exactly! Go Vote! Everyone! Do not feel comfortable when we get these good news. The people of USA have to make it happen and then celebrate. Don't celebrate too early.
@@RuLeZ1988Vote early too. Check voter reg constantly, as Red states change it. Volunteer, help with campaigns. Vote 💙 across America.
Karmala has won already. Staying home
@@stankyfx6001not an option
Not true. Last time is evidence of that
Very good, BUT still vote!
Absolutely, I hope he is right, but we still need to do our part.
There’s no way it will happen without us voting ! No way. So we all have to vote 💙💙💙💙💙
So 99 percent of the comments on this video are from leftwingers. What does that tell you, Times Radio?
Allan, you need to add a 14th key to the model... the Supreme Court thinks IT will decide just as they did in 2000
That one is a real danger, yes
This is why Harris needs to win convincingly. Despite Trump saying otherwise, the electoral college points were pretty comfortable for Biden. If this comes down to a state like PA and there’s a lan issue like dates when mail ins arrive to be counted then I’d worry that the Supreme Court could overstep their bounds.
Predictions, correct or not, do NOT VOTE - PEOPLE DO. AMERICANS UNITE FOR DEMOCRACY AND AMERICA 🇺🇸 - VOTE BLUE UP AND DOWN THE BALLOT
Can't afford 4 more years of this circus.
@@Space.Ghost.U r Russian? Me too
@@Space.Ghost.you mean we can't afford 4 years of trump. He has exhausted us and we are moving on.
@@pokey5736 *we* can't afford 4 more years of high gas, high interest, high groceries, high taxes, open borders, gaslighting, war mongering, pandering, inflation, shrinkflation, lawfare, ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS, or generally anything else that comes along with democrat "leadership".
This man was saying the same guff about Biden 2 months ago.
Because the keys are based mostly on the incumbency performance which is Biden and Harris. You need to brush up on the keys and it will make sense.
Even a well recognised Political data scientist Thomas Miller from Northwestern University predicts a democratic blowout
I hope so. But can help think of 45s last term.
It’s pathetic that the majority of the people who will vote for Harris are the based on the candidates policies instead it’s the fact on a is a mixed black women simply to make history.
It’s time for the “silent” side of We The People to come forth and balance back our country.
Nope. We agree with her policies AND we are excited that she will make history. Please don't equate our enthusiasm with ignorance.
Thank you Times Radio for supporting sanity in the US Election. Our only hope for PEACE and DEMOCRACY is America's commitment to our allies. The only hope for Ukraine is VP Harris as president of the United States.
No one is allowed to reply to this comment i see
No one is allowed to reply to this comment i see.
America first!
2000 he was right but Supreme Court take it gave to George Bush
Exactly, that was truly a stolen election. Gore stepped away like a gentleman. Watch closely, Donnie.
No. An independent audit by the New York Times and the Washington Post found that Bush won Florida.
Why do they keep saying it’s going to “be a close election?” We don’t know that! Just go out and vote!!!
He’s finished if he gets it wrong
Look what happen at AlGore and George Bush , he even predicted Biden will win the second term so now we have known, see he blames the state when he gets it wrong ! Let’s see !
I'm not voting for Epsteins orange friend .SAD!
India is considered a south Asian country, not east Asian.
actually We are South East Asian. So you are both right and wrong. :)
@@edg.2676 I was gonna say, India's big. But formally it's south Asia. East is Japan, North and South Korea, China, Mongolia, and Taiwan.
I pray that, in the end of this election, Lichtman's prediction DOES become true.
Lichtman is astonishing - and that over decades. Lets hope, that it doesn`t fail as with Al Gore, which had been a historically and extraordinary tight election event.
He didn't fail though, the Supreme Court basically gifted Bush the Presidency. And if the race is close like it was in 2000, they'll do it again.
A handful of ballots from a single county that were poorly designed managed to usurp the will of the people because the slavery derived electoral college is designed that way.
Wrong Alan got Al Gore right because Alan predicts the popular vote he does not predict the electoral college Alan got 2016 wrong because he predicted Trump would win popular vote Allen only predicts the popular vote
The odds of correctly guessing the outcome of every U.S. presidential election since 1984 by random chance would be 1 in 1024.
I would tend to listen to the man.
I’ve been following this guy for over 20 years.. Allan Lichtman is a fraud.. His predictions always leave enough room for him to backfill the gritty nitty details of who would actually win..
This guy has always got it right 👍
Allan Lichtman is brilliant. He has his own RUclips channel where he does live streams twice a week - highly recommended 🇺🇲
U NAFO dog?😍
Are enough US citizens prepared to vote for a popular but vacuous candidate to make Mr Lichtman's prediction a reality?
Mr. Trump has got a tiny hole in one of his teeth. I see it very clearly. Bacteria can wander via the bloodstream to other organs and to the brain, which can result in reduced functionallity, which probably is the problem in this case.
Bunch of sponge holes in his brain
Thank you Dr. Allan Lichtman for developing perhaps the best scientific presidential prediction instrument ever developed!!! 🙏Dr. Lee
Dr. Lee predicts behavior. She doesn’t predict elections.
We can but hope ... for everyone's sake.
Trumpovich is done 😅
Putler is done 😅
Love your work Allen
But Harris is not an incumbent she is a VP.
Which is why the democrats have lost the incumbency key
He got one wrong and adjusted his model after the fact to make it work for the prediction he got wrong.
I didn't need Prof. Lichtman's verdict nor keys to know who would win. All I had to do was go to Peter's Wife's Cookies and wait for Captain Bonespurs and his sidekick, Pet Eater Manboy, to show up and beg for a cookie sample. When Peter smacked him cold with that cookie sheet, that right there was the answer. It was awesome!!!
Rightfully so.
Why wasn't the title of the video 🎥 "Kamala Will Win"....Just Asking for a Friend ?
Wow he's 77? He looks amazingly well preserved if true.
He is, and runs miles in a day regularly. Insanely fit for his age.
@@russellhammond371 This! Even competes in senior marathons. What a legend.
well preserved?! :) he's not embalmed
@@marisabenson1222 he is an alien from the future. THAT'S how he predicted the winner for the last 40 yrs. KEYS, SHMEYS. He's an alien!🙀
I hope Allan is right!
As long as we show up, he will be right.
I hope he’s right, a person like that orange toilet should never be anywhere near power
Vote and make him right!
I hope you're right
Crazy how this guy is 77. Looks way younger!
We have never had a presidential candidate like trump before.
Good on you Alan - the very reliable appliance of science. Underestimate at your peril. Oh, one more thing: VOTE!!
This explains the "Earth shaking" term applied to some elections.
We have to factor in Republican cheating.
I agree but most of it's going to be in Texas, Florida, Arizona and Georgia. They're probably also be able to change the one electoral vote in Nebraska. But I think she has a good chance with the blue wall and Nevada maybe a long shot in North Carolina. But the other states she's not going to win in my opinion they're just going to cheat.
You mean something like Russia Russia Russia hoax
I hope you are right Allan Lichtman.
I'm relieved.
Get out to vote blue, no matter the polls or anyone predicting the winner. VOTE BLUE💙💙💙
So you want more wars
Whatever dude, what matters is that we vote. God willing it'll be Harris-Walz.
If you're an American voter, PLEASE hear me, GET OUT & VOTE! Please get your requests in now to vote by mail or show up on election day! Show up, vote blue, save our democracy & possibly others (UKRAINE). Vote BLUE.
You gonna end up in a nuclear war If she wins. You people are fools
I will vote. And I will get the vote out. But ain't no way I'm voting Blue - ever.
Pat yourself on the back for being on the wrong side of history.
I friggin hope he’s right.
I sure hope Trump looses
I sure hope you learn how to spell.
I sure hope Harris looses
The tv ratings on election night will be epic ….”ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL???!!!…ALL OUR ROUDY FRIENDS WILL BE THERE ON ELECTION NIGHT!!”
Vote Vote Vote America.
Trump/Vance 2024
Not happening.
The only house that felon is going is the big house.
The world is watching your election as you are the most powerful country in the world.
When America is sick the world is sick.
I hope VP Harris will win.
God bless the USA.
Amen!
This time the Power of God is with Donald J Trump --BEAT THE SYSTEM!
He did not predict every election!’ HE PREDICTED EVERY POPULAR VOTE!! And he got 2016 wrong he predicted Trump would win popular vote he did not
Trump has never won the popular vote and there’s no reason to believe he will this time.
You are just echoing a myth that was debunked several times. In the last 20 years the republicans have no chance to win the popular vote. And there is absolutely no situation where they win the popular vote and lose the electoral college.
He has not correctly predicted every election. See Wikipedia- “The Keys to the White House.”
That was an easy prediction to make...Donald Trump's mental health issues have become very apparent.
TBH..Republicans should've got another candidate...like the Democrats did.
🇺🇸
It's not who votes that matters, but who counts the votes.
MAGA is doing everything they can to ensure that only the right votes get counted.
lol nice try thief, I hope you dont run out of ink before youre finished printing all those fake kamal-toe ballots.
They don't have that power the establishment.does
You are misled and brainwashed
@@gregorychiasson7739 that or hes just in agreement with their corruption.
Two assassination attempts of Trump he gets my vote , the powers that be just want another puppet like Biden and that is all she is.
Trump is a real leader they want him gone
Vote Blue 💙💙💙💙💙Harris /Walz
Bottom line the prediction is still based on my vote
😂 your wrong sir 🤣 trump is the only one that knows how to do the job
Misleading title. "Correctly" assumes the election has already taken place.
Probably you misread the title?
Check your voter registration status TODAY.
Yes. But also because trump is like a freeze dried yellowfish.
I so hope he is right! Enough of the disgusting Trump/Vance/Maga. Lock them up and loose the key.
When we vote we win. We are not going back. Voting blue 🎉🎉🎉
When we vote we win. We are not going back to democrat control. Voting red 🎉🎉🎉
Isn’t he the guy who said if Biden steps down Trump will win
Trump's right on one thing, sometimes you have to flush twice.
Kamala will be a fantastic president. The middle class will finally be lifted up.
Your living in cartoon town Patty.
@@PhilipTeague-d1h Absolutely clown town.
am she is there now and things are in the toilet. or are you blind?
Kamala is a corporatist. Nothing will change. Everything will stay the same. Democrats support the rich so do Republicans. Id still rather have her over trump though. Atleast she's not a wannabe authoritarian but in the future we need real change. Kamala will not be that real change but Trump will try to destroy our democracy so she's still a better pick. Wish we had candidates that actually want to make real changes for the good but big money controls who gets in office so until big money isn't aloud to control politics there will be no real change.
Hahah why didn’t they lift it the past 4 years smh
Odd that this man of science doesn't bet on his predictions because he doesn't want to "jinx" the results. Science ends and superstition begins.
I love this guy.
A concise and rewarding introduction into Allan Lichtman´s ever astonishing, exuberant US history course. Please watch Allan´s and Allan´s son Sam´s podcasts "Lichtman Live" every Tuesday and Thursday.
This guy is dreamer!any normal person will vote for TRUMP
Please still vote my American cousins, the world is counting on you.
First correction is Kamala is Jamaican/carribean on the father side (maybe claim African descent), but the other half is not east Asia, there is a sub continent called India, that is where her mum is from. Y keep it vague? Anything wrong with her Indian heritage?🤔🤔
I guessed the last 6 elections right😂
I believe Lichtman is correct but you can’t say he correctly predicts the election when it hasn’t happened yet😮
Men or women as President what is the difference when America is still a country I don't have respect.
GET OUT and vote 💙
GET OUT and vote ❤
@@aaronmiller5012 I can’t vote for Trump. He hates my kind as a black Muslim US citizen.
I hope he’s wrong I really do not want to go through the past 4 years again
Please have your US counterpart be sure this is promoted in the US.
Harris/Walz 2024💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Trump/Vance 2024 ❤❤❤🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Proof I don’t need to vote
I was worried for a second
Good luck Kalma Harris
Shake your Magic Eight Ball again bro!
*South Asian
Your going to be surprised
FACT VS FICTION
Who is the professor going to vote for?🤔
@gw6496 Harris. It's pretty evident to me over the years I've watched him that he is a liberal. I don't want to speak for him, but yeah, he is definitely a liberal, imo.
I hope with all my 💙you are right.
Care about you son and grand kids is mr trump. If you’re wanting to be rich now Kamala. Lolz
Hope you're right but I wish everyone would just stop it with this identity stuff. I don't know anyone who doesn't feel that way.
Yeah but the A Hole won't f'ing go away😢
Trump is the turd that won't flush.
You're an inspiration Professor! Thank you.
Prepare your resume.
Thank God
Kamala is not of East Asian descent. She is of East Indian descent.
Her father is from Jamaica, which is in the West Indies, making him a West Indian.
She is thus of mixed West Indian and East Indian descent. But then most people would not know that most West Indians are of African descent hence have shared history with Black Americans.
Trump 2024
Oh, thank God. Now we just need a large enough victory to overcome inevitable specious challenges. I'll be dancing to the voting site when I drop off my mail-in ballot!
I meant to say the earth is NOT flat:). I know because the oceans have not emptied themselves over the edges.
The interview was previously published by the Times Radio?
Does he have a prediction on who will win the civil war after Trump loses?
Yes. His prediction is that there won't be a civil war. Trump's ability to mobilize his fans is overrated. He couldn't even have a crowd of supporters for his criminal trial, only a small handful of people showed up.
What are the keys to federal prison. How many keys does Donny have?