The Most Important Round in Survivor (and Why it's Changed)
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- Опубликовано: 22 апр 2024
- Also I sprinkle in some math about the optimal alliance size because I just can't help myself!
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Survivor, Survivor: 46, Survivor: Africa, Survivor: Marquesas, Survivor: All Stars, Survivor: Palau, Survivor: Guatemala, Survivor: Heroes vs Villains, Survivor: Redemption Island, Survivor: David vs Goliath, Survivor: Winners at War, Survivor: 41, Survivor: 42, Survivor: 43, Survivor: 44, Survivor: 45 
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As somebody who also loves the most niche stuff of survivor while not even live in a country that shows it, I love this content a lot
I think the last time Survivor actually aired over here was Kaoh Rong, and that was about halfway through Millennials vs Gen X airing in the US!
@@HenryHickmanSurvivor I cant remember the us version ever airing in germany, I know we had our own version that survived 2 seasons befire being axed but thats about it.
@@ejirokirishima4604 same in NZ! Surely it comes back one day...
Why would you make me sit through the DeNiro impression again?
Mainly because I had to watch it while editing and felt I shouldn't be the only one 😅
Imo for Erika; her best move was also at final 6, taking out Danny was what made her stand out, it was a move only in her best interest that set her up good for 5/4
Very good point, I was debating between 5 and 6, bur 5 with the advantage win was slightly more visible to the jury so I went with that. Probably worth mentioning both!
I think her best move is inarguably the Shan boot at Final 8. Erika was the one to make it a split vote to ensure everyone was solidly on board with the plan and it couldn't backfire on her, and she went from being in huge immediate danger to being in a secure power position as a result of it.
@@bencalebrodthe split vote was great insurance for her but it wasn’t “her” move - the move never happens without ricard taking initiative first.
The biggest reason the Final 9 vote is no longer that impactful is definitely the split tribal. Obviously if it occurs at Final 10/9 it makes the Final 9 just a 5 person vote, but even if it occurs at Final 12/11 it makes Final 10 the vote where battle lines are really drawn and Final 9 is too soon to shake that up.
Really wish they would just get rid of the split tribal, or if they insist on continuing to have it do it at Final 11/10 so that Final 9 is the vote afterwards where the battle lines are redrawn, and as a bonus there will also be a more pure merge vote at Final 12 after Mergatory at 13.
The split tribal really does bug me. I understand 46 managed to have pretty good ones, but I much prefer something like South Pacific where two people go home in one night.
Or bring back pre-merge double tribal! Those were fine.
Just...don't bring back the message in a bottle...that was a mistake...
Nobody wants to shake things up at the merge anymore, there is simply too much risk that you’ll immediately get split into a tribe with people you just betrayed.
6:11 I love how you say that these votes aren't important while showing the Ryan boot, which was the vote where the Ride or Die alliance formed, which was the alliance that played a large part in Gabler's win.
Misremembering on my part, or a funny gag? I'll never tell!
Gabler never partook in taking out his shields in those two, he voted out Cody like everyone but if ride/die didn’t flip on each other i doubt he makes the move himself
@@taranatorshq he's literally the person who convinced Jesse to flip on Cody by planting the idea in Jesse's head that Cody would beat him at FTC. Jesse wouldn't have made the move otherwise, so I definitely give Gabler some credit for this.
@@cblazerc there were quite a few things to point to that, and while sure that could’ve been a conversation Jesse came up this the plan 1000% himself (the karla bluff too!) it’s rlly hard to give anyone but him the credit that round
@@taranatorshq I'm not saying Jesse doesn't deserve credit, I'm just saying that Gabler deserves his dues for his more subtle moves.
I think you can also point to threat management being more important in the new era and players waiting until the end game to start really making the biggest moves
Very true, and people who don't end up being fodder for the eventual winners!
this is an amazing video and i think you’ve really hit on something very true about survivor in the new era. however my biggest takeaway is Omg I’m so happy to meet another Drew Basille stan 😍
Still so mad at Austin 😭
One of my favourite new era castaways! I'm a big fan of tall nerds not sure why...
Nice! And, yes... I'd call tonight a pretty bonkers and fun Final 9.
Certainly the most exciting one of the new era!
i can’t believe you said the final approximate seven not final approximate several
...dammit
I think part of the thing about alliances being smaller (in addition to the forced fire-making) is that you have smaller tribes. 4 people form a majority on a tribe of 6, while on tribes of 8-9 (and, historically, sometimes 10 since the first TC tends to be a consensus boot), you would need a majority of 5. This is why we've had a couple new era seasons where you have a strong 4 running the endgame (Taku 4 and Reba 4 come to mind first), because they formed early on their small tribe and had no reason to turn on their own because of, as you said, forced firemaking.
Just another reason why we need two tribes next season. FIGHT ME, probst
yea i thought of this too. great vid tho !!!
In the future it might be worth mapping alliances to seasons and seeing how it changes based on other factors!
im only at 1:43 so i dont know your reasoning yet
my idea is that fire making makes it easier for the best player to get to final 3 so that would make the most important round happen earlier
but i think at the start of the video you implied that final 6 is now the most important round, much later than final 9 so im very curious to see why
i think this will be a great video
men go bye bye aka Hunter AND THAT PISSED ME OFF
I think that final 7 has become the new final 9 in the new era
I'm inclined to agree, hoping it changes tomorrow!
The biggest thing the Ryan vote did was solidify the alliance of Jesse, Cody and Gabler. An Alliance Gabler won the game for and it also destroyed Cassidy's "big move" when in front of the entire jury. When Cody, Jesse and Gabler basically said they would had complete control of that vote and would have taken out Cass if someone else was on the jury.
It doesn't feel big but it was an important move. It's just Gabler is such an odd winner, it hard to make sense of any of it.
If I could take one season and re-edit it into 90 minutes, I'm choosing Survivor 43 (maybe). All of the first 4 nee Era seasons would benefit from it tbh. That and I just need to rewatch them to remember them a bit better!
I would love to see a video about your opinion on the demerge. At first I hated because “no big tribals 😡” but now I think it works for other reasons like forcing players to have agency.
I think it would be cool to see you look at the stats for de-merges (both for players who got out and who make moves during them) and see what value the demerge brings to survivor.
I'm considering it! I had plans to essentially make this video about that, but then Survivor: 46 when f*cking nuts with it so I'm conflicted...
I think another niche area could be the evolution of the merge vote
Great idea, cheers!
Another reason I can see this alliance of 4 meta is due to starting tribes of 6! Where as before on 10/9 person tribes you’d either have majority right off the bat, or pile onto an easy first boot then have the numbers. Now most alliances start and finish the game to a degree at four (i.e reba four taku four luvu being 4 of the final 6)
Yeah, I think I'll go through the alliances at some point and see what tribes they started on, and how that impacts size and performance some time!
The final several
This is the best
It’s definitely a lot easier to get to the end nowadays, if you are in an alliance of 4 the facts are that there is 0 reason to actually betray each other since there is no more voting after final 5
This in turn means that you can’t risk a big threat making the final 4 because they could just make fire, which in turn means you can’t risk a big threat making it to 5 since if they have an idol all they need is to make fire.
Which in turn means you probably can't risk them making 6 because then they need an idol and just 1 immunity! The gave a whole talk once about how Survivor twists impact the game, I should post it some time...
Which in turn means that you can’t risk a potentially big physical threat going far, think about the one big players that actually made the final 4 in season 43
Jesse because all of the other people in the finals could beat him in firemaking and he wasn’t able to win challenges.
This phenomenon shows up a lot with players like George from HvV, they may stand a high chance of winning but for the most part they’re a goat being prepared for slaughter just not in front of the jury like a FTC goat
9:14 ONE WORLD???
henry as a fellow new zealander do you also watch on totally legal websites
The ways in which I watch Survivor are perfectly legal and moral indeed!
I don't think it should be considered a final 9 if the tribe is split into 2 groups of 5 like they did in 41-43
That's fair! I count it because it actively detracts from what should be an exciting round of Survivor!
Has there been a 4-4-1 vote at Final 9 before???
Not that I saw! Certainly an exciting one!
Update, I went and researched a bit further! There was a 4-4-1-1 vote at the final 11 of Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers.
According to the Survivor Wiki, the second Fans vote of Survivor: Micronesia was not aired, and was actually 4-4-1 between Chet and Mikey B, before Mikey B went home in the re-vote.
@@HenryHickmanSurvivor : Wow thanks for the research on the Chet-Mikey B vote.
Back to the topic of your video, I think while you're correct that nobody makes the game winning move at final 9 anymore, I do think that final 8/9 is where someone LOSES the game. This is where somebody who ends up at FTC seals their fate. Like Xander losing Evvie on 41 ensured he'd lose Final Tribal. The Hai vote at Final 8 (since 9 was a split tribal) ensured that Mike wouldn't win. The Noelle vote out killed Owen's chances for winning 43. The Frannie vote out ensured Heidi wouldn't win FTC. And the Kendra vote out doomed Jake's fate.
@@thebumpercar1344 all good points! Do you think if Jake had pulled off the final 5 move he has a shot? Other than that I agree with you!
@@HenryHickmanSurvivor : I think in that specific season, pulling that move there was too late. A Reba was bound to win at that point, the question was going to be who. Belo started turning on each other way too early instead of pagonging the minority. You can see it with the decision to cut off Kaleb at 11, then the disaster that was the final 10 vote where all the vote getters were Belo... Kendra's vote out was the last time they had a chance of regaining control over the game. Similar trajectory to the Six alliance, TBH.
I don't understand your points, since I started watching at 46. But seeing that, your alliances are going to be 3-4 because of the smaller tribes and it takes some time to build alliances after merge. Final 8 there might be enough for time for new alliances to work, if you don't have your tribal alliance. But assuming you are all using each other, you all have the same resume basically. That goes for post-merge alliances also because most people on the jury are only going to know what you have done since then. 6-7 left is the longest you can carry those alliances before needing to turn on them to have a decent chance at winning in final 3. Where hopefully you can remove your all your alliance members so your game is distinct enough from other players.
Yeah my alliance analysis was far too basic for how complex of an idea it is. I'll hopefully create a longer video exploring why alliances form, when they turn on each other based on size, etc.
It does seem the final 9 is important when there are bigger alliances, such as in S28, and the final 6/7 are more important when smaller alliances exist.
day 3 of asking for celebrity treasure island review
I’m just waiting for Jeff Probst to justify the final 4 being determined by shelter building, it’s just as much of a necessary survival skill as firemaking, and if that doesn’t get all of Probst’ favorites to the end clearly the final 5 should be determined by water purification
I mean it’s all about the necessary survival skills right? That’s the point of firemaking according to most casuals, why aren’t the other skills being tested if it’s really anything other than an attempt to force the biggest players into the final tribal.
The best player does not always need to win for a season to be good
And firemaking doesn't even guarantee the best player wins the season!
Final 5 Shelter Building challenge
Final 6 Spear Fishing challenge
There's no limit to how many survival challenges we can have!
09:12 this is how the German language was invented
As they say in Germany
"Yeah, I think so"
As a non-subscribed viewer: the video feels too bloated. If you're gonna have digressions/jokes, make them funny and less self-indulgent
Thanks for the advice! Much appreciated!
I call the seasons with FMCs Final 4s, because it's basically a 4 person endgame with a weird game in the middle. F3s already fucked with Survivor enough because if you could sneak a core 3 into 6 you basically had the game given to you from that point. All three RI seasons were like this and RI did nothing to change it. In the days of F2s no alliance but a duo made it to the end.
With a F3 in Pearl Islands there's no reason for a shakeup at F5 like the one that claimed Burton. Burton takes both Jon and Lil to the end bc he doesn't NEED to choose. He never gives Lill a tell to flip. If your format is bad enough to neuter PI and make FAIRPLAY a Survivor winner, you've made a bad format. I love Fairplay, but we DEFINITELY get a neutered one if he wins
Now! Imagine PI with a F4. Like wtf is that? There's no reason to flip after Rupert. Take out the Drakes and Tijuana bc Darrah won immunuties. Burton probably wins FTC, takes Lil, Darrah beats Jon in firemaking and we have a DARRAH win.
Calling them Final 4s is accurate. It's basically a perfomrative tribal council anyway mainly for the juries benefit. You could say that about all tribals but it's definitely true for the Final 4.
I would personally love a Fairplay win, but not in that way! Also I don't know how I'd feel about a Darrah win...depends on the edit!
Counterpoint: Final 3s are better than Final 2s. Cagayan almost became the worst season of all time because of its Final 2. Imagine if Woo makes the correct choice and eliminates Tony???
@@thebumpercar1344 a Woo/Kass F2 would have been hilarious, it just wouldn't have the Big Movez Manly Man
@@ashen_roses : It would be tragically hilarious. People are still debating who would win a Woo/Kass final 2, since apparently the cast hated them both equally.
@@thebumpercar1344 and that's why I don't get why we have to have mandatory strategy-and-gloat-and-manly winners every time or very unoffendable people will throw fits like The West Have Fallen. Making the jury decide between Hate Bitch 1 and Hate Bitch 2 sounds brutal, engaging, and hilarious.