Why I'm Optimistic About the Housing Market
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- Опубликовано: 7 июл 2024
- There's a lot of RUclipsrs out there saying the housing market will crash and that everything is doom and gloom. I disagree. I think your house is the best/safest investment you can make and today I'm discussing why.
Sources:
www.cnbc.com/2017/06/23/how-m...
www.statista.com/statistics/1...
constructioncoverage.com/rese...
www.macrotrends.net/countries...
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Timestamps
00:00 Housing market discussion
23:00 Q&A begins
23:03 How inflation affects home renovation and housing market
26:18 Is there return on investment on landscaping and curb appeal?
28:21 How do I remove adhesive after removing flooring?
30:23 Renovations with return on investment
33:57 Should I add venting to my attic?
36:26 Copper vs. PEX
39:18 Do I need TYPAR on exterior walls if I have a French drain?
40:13 How to fix the slope around the house?
41:39 How do I re-seal a deck
47:50 How to budget for a renovation?
48:26 Really good advice from an old guy
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Развлечения
Thanks for joining us everyone! Join us next Tuesday April 25th at 5pm, we have expert plumber @Rogerwakefield joining us live to answer all of your plumbing questions. Cheers!
After last week's show, I bought the materials (though your links, btw) to set up a fence on my deck this weekend. It looked really good, and I wouldn't have thought about doing it had I not watched your channel. Thanks for the great idea!
Cheers
The best time to renovate is when everyone is scared to spend. Prices are low and you get the best bang for buck!!!!
You are an inspiration! We bought 1987 home and having to do a lot.
GREAT VIDEO, most you tubers are not interested in showing the bigger picture. Awesome.
To answer Yinzer House's question about wasps. Plant gardenia, or mint around the structures you want to keep them away from. Wasps, and mosquitos both hate mint, and wasps in particular hate gardenia. It's a natural barrier, and will make your area look nicer. An additional tip for carpenter bees is to spray the structure with apple cyder vinegar. Carpenter bees will drill holes into just about any wood structure, and weaken it over time.
The catch is you'll have to spray it roughly once a month, or so to keep them away until they screw off for the winter. I use a simple pump weed sprayer I picked up from Home Depot for $15 to get the job done. I use it to give me some distance because if they're anywhere near where you spray they'll fly off in a panic, and can slam into you. The males don't have stingers, but the females do so be careful.
So many mints out there. Which one?
@@rubyoro0 It doesn't matter. They stay away from all mints. It's the type of scent it is that puts them off. I'd go with either spearmint, or peppermint.
I love that you’re looking past the doomers at something positive. It’s always difficult to time the market. Better to have time IN the market.
one thing you missed is back in the day there WEREN"T foreign investors or at least as many as there are today
in addition there weren't realtors buying MULTIPLE properties as investment properties
people largely were buying properties for their own ! their own primary residents
Always going to have excuses to not make money. Have no fear, blood sweat and tears always wins
@@joseph7105 keep telling yourself
@@derick3482 I do and so far nothing bad has happened. And if something bad does happen, well we will adapt and survive as we have always done. The future belongs to those who show up for it
Jeff, my wife and I bought a house last year. We’re both 23 and we had to work hard to save up the minimum down payment and to afford the mortgage every month but we couldn’t be happier. I am always thinking about what the next project should be
Heck yea man! 23, married, and a homeowner. Love it. My wife and I (both 25) just bought our house back in November and are currently renovating to move in by the end of the summer. I keep day dreaming about all the projects I'm going to do!
Keep adding value! It's like printing money
As the investor saying goes, it's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market!! I joined the work force right outta HS and got my first place when I was 19, 27 now and got 3 more properties and a million in equity. Hamilton Ontario! Love seeing young home owners. Nothing matures you the way pride of ownership does. Keep on going!! Its the best decision I ever made, and all the friends that told me it was a bad idea are the ones renting and paying off student debt
I bought a fixer-upper in 2013 for $185k, put about 50k into it and sold it for $430k in 2020. Just closed on another fixer upper for $325k, I have a 33k renovation loan and an as-completed appraisal for 500k. Gonna live in it for 2 years to skate the capital gains. Love fixer-uppers!!
...Just for context, I'm in Alaska. Th market is pretty expensive but steady up here.
That's how it's done! Since watching Jeff I bought and sold 3 houses. Averaged 80k/year income which might not sound like much, but I work 7-8 hours a day, take many long weekends and vacations whenever i want, and work at my own pace.
Jeff, Love your channel and your info
Hi Jeff, I don’t know about the USA but here in the UK the average price of a house in 1945 was £5:00, the reason it was so low is you never knew if it would still be standing the next day, the average wage packet was about £2:50 for a 48 hour week, a lot has changed since then
Prices don’t actually go up, it’s an inflation hedge. The currency the asset is in loses value at an insane and increasing rate. I am also an owner and think will keep the 3.5% fixed.
Yes but is basically the same thing! Do you think renting is better? If not then just buy lol
I’m at 2.0 fixed and bought 7 years ago 😊
@@MegaMarlon0123 exactly, if you're paying less than 500$ for a mortgage compared to 1400$ for rent you win because your monthly costs are lower AND you have an ASSET
@@MegaMarlon0123 If you live in a place with rent control it can be more stable and cheaper than a variable rate. This is obviously more for canadians
@@joshryan9560 that’s basically almost nobody in tha situation
@@cac8793 the ones renting always making excuses 😂
In our area, the investment firms wont stop buying residential. There is no supply and as the firms buy more, they never let them go. This is leaving less residential homes owned by families, and even less supply. Last weekend we lost out on an offer despite putting in $31k over ask on the first day. We have now submitted five offers all over ask that have lost. Where is the end? We cant compete with waived inspections, all cash offers the investment firms are offering.
To add this, we want to be homeowners. I have no doubt that owning a home is a great decision. We have a downpayment ready. Thank you Jeff for your time. Would love to hear your opinion if you get around to this.
Post on local social media and fish out a home before it hits the market.
What area are you in?
Just keep looking. This isn't surprising
Long Island NY, 2 bedroom $570k and 7% rate. This is absolutely ridiculous. The housing market is out of control. Completely fell off the rails.
Your intro perked me up a bit. I sold my house (Canada) in 2019 thinking that house prices were going to drop and then I would have more buying power. That was an epic fail.
It's discouraging because I am on my own and I probably am starting to show my age a bit so will find the reno work a lot harder. I just don't know how I'll be able to afford a house again. It's hard not to feel down about it. Maybe I just need to think more creatively about it.
And dont try to time the market again. STOP following stupid people on the internet
We moved out of the city a year-and-a-half ago and bought a house on five acres outside of our childhood home town. Looking to buy the three and a half acres next to me. Plus I have about a thousand projects.
The house is only fourteen years old and built by the Amish. Mostly cosmetic improvements.
The year 2000 clock change was real. Millions of people (myself included) worked for 2 years to prevent it becoming a catastrophe. In the background, insurance and banking industries forced any organization they funded/insured that depended on computers for their operations to make sure any hardware or software they relied on was going to work. We had to create plans for literally everything and report our progress in upgrading those items to our finance and insurance companies. It was HUGE!
The good news is, we were successful. The media were hying it up, because that's what they do, but quietly, behind the scenes, there was an intensive effort across all software and computer hardware entities making sure people wouldn't be harmed if respirators suddenly stopped working, or if elevator controls failed, or bank computers stopped being able to handle transactions.
The Y2K crash never happened because we found and fixed all the bugs beforehand. Basically the reason nothing happened was _because_ of all the preceding hoopla.
Yeah, lots of people worked hard and a lot of money was spent to make sure things went so smoothly.
But that's just the way people are and often the main source of our problems, especially politically.
Regulation and institutions where created in the past to solve problems thar where severe enough for people to take action and for them to be willing to spend money to solve them.
With the concequence that the problem disapears, as it was designed to.
Move on 40 or 50 years and nobody remembers the problems even existing and people start talking about why even have this regulation or institution sucking up money or whatever for a problem that doesn't even exist. It clearly is something useless that's clearly just there to annoy people. Let's get rid of it.
Surprise pikachu face when the same problems people worked hard to get rid of come back before you can even say deregulation..
Not saying things shouldn't be updated from time to time, but these things are put there for very good reasons generally.
I agree with you. Another way to think about it is, what's a complete HVAC install going to cost in 2043? It was about 15-20K for me this past year. I'd wager it'll cost way more in 20 years.
Yes and your income will proportionally go way up by then also. So everything is really close to the same. The numbers are ALL just higher
You overpaid
@@72sat360 How do you come to that conclusion without knowing what kind of system I got, what size house, how many zones, etc?
@@natersalad889not true, wages don’t go up as fast as inflation.
Still renovating! Not gonna stop me at all!
Ok. Dad's house: 2000sf 1970s home, $250K. Ongoing foundation problems still not solved, plumbing under the slab issues...aluminum wiring...I can see the rest, but not the foundation and plumbing. That's why we just buy new. Yes, it'll be smaller, but slab and plumbing under the slab? No thank you. Work 2 jobs? Been there done that, now paying for it with health issues. I mean reality. Please.
1990 a home was 1.3x yearly wage, 2000 it is 1.8, 2022 6x. That is so much more than ever before.
Sure but there not the same house.
Exactly - this is the real measure
Uh no a home is still 3x your wage a hole.
Doesn’t matter, you need to look at the payment and what percent of income it was.
Thats exactly what Jeff mentioned, the gap will keep increasing, salaries never did and never will keep up with asset prices.
The intro feels like I'm watching a pundit in 2007...
For yellowjackets, hold your breath while you're near them I've checked thousands of propane tank levels which collect nests and never been stung in the process by using this trick. Your breath is how they "lock on" i guess.
Depends on whether you can afford it. Love your optimism though
13:10 the thing is, buying Fixer uppers going for a premium isn’t going to do you any good, you still over paid and now you are building sweat equity, but without the equity part. Add into the fact that these old houses can have major expensive deferred maintenance and you might just be over your head and burning your wallet.
Normally, it might make sense to buy a house under market value and fix it up yourself. But now is not normal times.
As long as you're doing all the work yourself, you're into money and you can't go wrong. Everyday somebody is buying a house and the only tool they have is a cell phone (to hire contractors), and they are making bank. The more you can do yourself the more you can make. The rules haven't changed in decades.
I looked at these overpriced remodels. Homeowners mostly havent lived in the house, roofs are 20+ years old, foundations are leaking or even crumbling. They still want over 100k more than what they paid for it. People need to learn to fix whats important not esthetics. I dont care what the paint or counters look like. I care whether the house is going to collapse. Smfh
@@joseph7105 the more you can do yourself is absolutely true. But that doesn’t mean you can buy anything, even way over priced pieces of junk, and “be in the money.” All you did is subsidize someone who didn’t do the work, at the expense of yourself.
@@72sat360 this is why demand needs to fall. Too many speculators getting huge payouts for doing shoddy work. The only way to flush them out is for the market to bury them.
@@tublin4940 correct. This is why Jeff refers to said properties as money pits and advises against buying them.
Love your RANT OF THE DAY!
You said use good geocloth to prevent weeds in your landscaping. Do you have a recommendation on what geocloth to use in the states? We are currently doing a huge landscaping project.
Hi Jeff. Capital markets guy here... heads up to everyone, there's a very strong yet currently very little reported on issue going on in the CRE space (Commercial RE). ~3years after the pandemic, only around 50% of offices (country wide) are at capacity. Loans for these massive comm towers are coming due (5 year rolling avg) and ironically it's the little banks (regional) that are holding most loans. So, this is the next shoe to drop in terms of crisis. We know the banks are already on the brink due to interest rate hikes and consumers being tilted; in this case, as the banks are the lenders to the commercial property lenders, it appears once the snowball starts rolling it has the potential to take the US economy down similar to what happened in 08/09.
So, while longer term, agreed with thesis "prices go up"... in the short term it'd be best to wait for a firesale deals as this makes its way through the broad economy. "Cheers!"
I imagine a bunch of those will be snapped up and turned into urban loft-style apartments/condos & rented/sold at absurd markups.
Jeff.. I love your channel. I am 63, with a lot of DIY skills. I still make $200K a year and I don't like throwing my money away. I want to add a 20 ft x 35 ft deck (5 ft above ground level) with one staircase. I have had multiple bids on the project. Every bid is about $90K. I know the materials are no more than $20K. With the shortage in the skilled labor market contractors are throwing out outrageous bids waiting for desperate people. For me to save an additional $7OK, it would take me 2-3 years. It is more cost effective for me to take a month off work, hire a laborer assistant and build the deck myself. I am incorporating the separation wall you made in your Florida home on my build... Excellent idea.
Good topic
Great video from a great guy.
I bought at age 31 (in 2021). This amount of space (2000 sq ft+ 2 car garage) is enough to make it my forever home. I worked overtime, two jobs from 2019-2021 to get the 20% down together. However I want a second property before my late 30's while I do updates on my existing home.
90% of people who are clamoring for a "crash" haven't taken 10 minutes to put together a serious plan like you mentioned to save for a home within the next 1-2 years. There is no call for action, its just "something something 2008" thinking they'll qualify for a newer 3 Bed/2 Bath with no money down and a $40k job. But they'll have to wait and see, I guess they didn't learn over the past 3 years.
My fiancé and I close in two weeks on a home that needs a lot of updating. I plan to do most things myself. We make 180-210k. We are in CT. The house cost 360. We put 5% down and have a good amount saved for emergency fund plus to make updates once we move in. I wish we bought in January 2020 when we were initially looking. Man houses were so nice and were like 300k 😂😂
Im not frightened about the sorry Jeff I missed the live stream. Had to work late. I’ll catch up later tonight 😮. I’m very excited, I’m older thank you
I'm having such a hard time trying to find stone veneer for foundations outside of the overpriced box store junk. What keywords should I be searching?
I like your policy!
The only people happy are the ones that have the money to buy several and sell them for much higher. The ones that are miserable are people such as myself that cannot afford one.
Geothermal is likely to start really taking off - big up-front cost, but huge energy and cost savings over time.
You should get Dustin from Electrician U on the show!
Good video. 👍🏻
The problem is a pile of lumber, drywall and tar shingles sprinkled with gravel isn’t worth half a million intrinsically. People are buying on the prospect another person will buy it for more.
I don’t own a house. I rent a townhouse for $1175 a month in Ottawa. Rent can’t be raised more than a rate defined by the government. I’ve been here for 3 years. New neighbours pay $1800 for the same house.
I don’t pay $4-5000 property taxes, I don’t pay condo or HOA fees (at least not directly), I don’t pay for maintenance and I invest the money I saved by not having to repay a mortgage.
Telling people they’ll save money if they buy a house is simplistic and misleading.
You are certainly right in this age. Home prices are ridiculous. Even to rent a house is outrageous. Home flippers are a major problem. Painting and remodeling a house that has a bad roof and bad foundation is not a good investment. Nor would i pay 200k for a it or a 800 sq ft house. Its time for a housing collapse to happen. Its much needed.
The vast majority of the cost of a house is not the materials. It's the location, the labor it took to build it, the involvement of specialists which need licenses certifications insurance, permits, inspections, the time and money spent renovating and maintaining it.
Nah man... 2022 In Canukistan the price for a town house was 800K+ that's about 550K green backs. A freekin double common wall town house... And it went higher by the end of year.
Then we add demand and supply, with added competition from large acquisition reseller companies.
Really enjoyed this... i thought he was about to go into trading strategies
Question, pay off your house faster if you have the money to do so, or continually reinvest your money on other things while maintaining current home payments.
If it is your first house pay it off my brother, after that you can invest as much as you want.
I renewed my Mortgage in 2020 at 1.7% closed. Now that the rate gone up, I maximized my loan and put about 100k$ in a TFSA GIC at 5.1%. I am going to pay off my mortgage at my renewal date with the interest I made. If you can do something similar, just do it.
I'm not anti-green... I'm anti-being stupid! Love it!
13:16 😂😂😂 Tony Montana
What needs to be kept within context here is wages have been stagnate to the CPI in the US since about 1968. Pure dollar trends is not an honest correlation without considering the value of the dollar itself. So let's look at the US since 2000 as you mentioned 20 year windows.
That $120k house for sale in 2000 would take $210,000 to buy in todays dollars due to inflation.
Minimum wage is 71% higher than it was in 2000 but housing prices have climbed 306% in this same 23 year window.
So until prices come down to the mid $250k or wages go up significantly we are not at all close to having affordable homes..
Now THAT being said. I do see the trend making sense. More Boomers are retiring and less and less people can do DiY. The problem I have is it will cause more and more vacant homes that need work. So the housing will level out because there will always be renters but not nearly enough people to buy fixer uppers. So the available, livable homes will decrease over time. So tbh the longer you can wait the better off you will be in finding cheap homes.
Sure. But it seems like Jeff is saying that homes aren’t going to be affordable ever again. Prices will go up and wages will not keep up. He’s saying buy now or you’ll be out of the game. This is a dystopian prediction but he phrases it like an investment opportunity. It’s odd.
If what he says actually happens then we’ve got big problems. The fact that you missed the boat and did t buy a house in 2023 is the least of your worries in that harrowing future.
Canada is inviting in 2 million more immigrants …. Those house prices are going nowhere
I disagree. I live in Los Angeles, we have a lot of immigrants, our property value skyrocketed in the last few years.
What's your logic?
@@Toybinging thats the point im making . The more people you invite in the less housing is available which in turn pushes prices up as its a rarer commodity . People are going to need somewhere to live
@Netzero english ?
Some people argue that you can make more money with stocks or mutual funds. But you can’t live in a stock portfolio. So if you invest in stocks over 20 years then in order to really figure out if you’re ahead you have factor in the 20 years of rent you have to throw out the window
Where I live (Ottawa, Canada), rent increases are controlled. If you rented for 20 years, your rent would be a fraction of the fair rent today. You have to factor that into your calculations. Renting and investing is better than buying a house.
@@xavytex Maybe if you rent a small apartment vs owning a large house but even then it’s hard to believe. Does the TSX double every 10 years? Also, do you want to live in the same apartment for 20 years? Usually as our circumstances improve or our family grows we want to upgrade.
@@xavytex Rent controls are rare in the US. Either way a landlord can give notice at any time if they decide to stop being a landlord. They do not need to forever give you ridiculously low rent simply because controls exist for where you are right now. Count yourself lucky and shut up before your landlord realizes you are currently screwing them
@@skaterkraines2691 the commenter is also disingenuous because people looking for rent in Ottawa are lucky to find anything below 1600$ and it keeps increasing every year
Yes, but you aren’t leveraged in stocks.
You earn gains on the whole house even though you haven’t paid for it all yet.
That is the big deal. A home goes from $400k to $600k, but how much money do you have in it? Most people didn’t fork over $400k cash.
Plus, you have to pay to live somewhere anyway, you might as well get something back.
Owning a home in any desirable location is a lock longterm.
I feel like there might be some slight bias in this video ;D
Side note, Y2K was a real threat. It was averted by scores of IT experts working overtime.
LOTS of overtime!!
bought my house when i was 20 for 75000 sold it when i was 30 for 190000
The new FHSA, unfortunately, will just raise the price of home in the next 2-3 years. Imagine, 40000$ tax free for the purchase of your first home for a single person, or 80000$ tax free for a young couple.
Youre like a dad I never had.
Median guessing was 318,000
cheers
the question is will people just sit idly by while their wages stagnate and prices go up at the same rate?
Everything has a breaking point. Just because it hasn’t broken in the past doesn’t mean it can continue trending more extreme and not break. It confuses me that people don’t understand this. At some point we WILL be on your 1.5 million dollar median doorstep with torches.
there are people who have been studying Economics(ray daylio,peter schiff,robert kiyo.. its definitely crashing 100%.but it doesn't matter if the house market crash or not, nobody is trading with us dollars anymore if you haven't notice. ITS CALLED BRICS.i love your home improvement video but ill have to listen to the professionals about the real economy
The same professionals that said it was going to collapse in 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2021?😂😂2008 was the first time since the great depression that housing values went down more than a few percent across the board.
Yeah, like Michael Burry. He's predicted 2 of the last 50 recessions. What a guy
@@b.m.4066 It's freaking crashing dude! They are intentionally crashing it!
@@ENDofREGULATION30 🙄
@@b.m.4066 You can't look at the world today and assess the situation by the past.
During previous recessions, did we have our currency In peril? Milk will probably be 15 dollars a gallon by next year and you think the housing market is safe?
No sir
Bought a condo in Picton 3 years ago…worried but if i can swing a mortgage…its good. How can retired folk get mortgage
20% mortgage rates but your money was growing at 24-26%!
Jeff, what makes you tick buddy? You just keep putting out video after video? I hope you're happy and making lots of money.
I have a wife and 4 kids. Trying g to set them up for the future. Plus I love helping people
@@HomeRenoVisionDIY You are the man! I am very impressed and educated by your videos. I think you are what you tube instructional videos are meant to be. I appreciate you sir
Haaah! I remember in 1999 i was like a 9y/o monster hearing about something really bad happening in 2000 my mom saved a bunch of water incase there was a drought
Are your rates higher now than they were 4 years ago? If so, maybe consider showing some solidarity with striking workers.
Idk look at the economists on the tube and they paint a different picture. Get ready for the worst
428K
Great episode. Glad you knocked some sense into the doomers. Seems everybody just wants to complain and look for reasons to be lazy and not make money. There are so many opportunities out there right now for anybody that doesn't let fears and worries control them! Great time to buy and house and flip it. Even if the only tool you know how to use is a cell phone, you're still going to make money.
Super chats only or super chats and members?
Next weeks show the live chat will be open to everyone, during our regular shows the live chat is for members and super chats only. Cheers
250,000
Average house size I'm 1950 was 950 sq ft. And those houses had no insulation, central heating, etc. So you're comparing Lamborghinis to Peugeots.
What a ridiculous amount of information jammed into one video, well done
I held back so as to not overwhelm. Cheers
my Ex is leaving his home to our son in his will. It's a 1965 in a prime location. But oh man does it need work. He hasnt done anything to it in 30 yrs. We have debated sell as is or remodel it. This is interesting.
Definitely remodel. Easy money!
Median house is not 423k its 750k where I am
I love your vids. You have saved me a ton of money with your tips and guides.
This won’t age well. IMO
Blood, sweat and tears wins everytime. If you built your life on lies, the future won't be fun for you
@@joseph7105 I build my life on the blood of Jesus Christ.
@@cmetzg03 Hemoglobin foundation? Yikes you're gonna want to call a structural engineer for that!
@@cmetzg03 Then there's nothing to worry about
The market is up in Canada again.
just realized we skipped 2010 lol
I love you. You are awesome. Love the way you talk straight, no fluff. GREAT advice. Thank you for sharing.
We will not be using the same currency in a few years.
This vid will not age well.
You will not age well if you dont buy a house lol.
I'm excited about the crash that is coming...wait till the CMBS take a dive here soon. Betcha your not going to go out and buy a house now...Maybe you should stick to hone improvement EH?
Stick with repairs
Hell yes stay out of my pocket
This guy votes for Ford.
Hey, how about you chart the median income to median house price. in the 1940's it was about the same. In 2022? 6-7 times median income. Nah, not a problem at all, totally normal trend, stable and sustainable. "Get yours while you can, I got mine!" - oh, wait, a median person can't afford a median home anymore. I had respect for you and your insightful DIY videos - whooosh, all gone.
Did you watch the video? He talks about that
@@erncooper1693 how to build a deck - sure! How the housing crisis is getting worse every day - clueless and arrogant. We went from median income affording a median house to having to be in the 90th-95th percentile of income to afford a median, 50th percentile house, and the gap between median income and house price is only growing! Kids in school today are basically priced out of house ownership unless we see a drastic change. How anyone can think that this is "normal" is beyond me. Going to be very interesting when 95% of our workforce and voting population can't afford to buy a house and will be getting gouged on monthly increasing rent, I am sure some very "cool and normal" things will happen! I have not seen such an out of touch and arrogant pile of crap since I read "Rich dad, poor dad" by the infamous fraudster.
@@sociopathmercenary yeah, I did. "Jump on the rocket cause it's only going to go up" is sentiment best left at WallStreetBets.
What matters isn’t median price to income, but what percent of your income goes to your payment.
With the past low rates, the payment to income ratio was some of the lowest in 50 years.
Look at that ratio and you will see it hasn’t changed all that much. Homes in the early 80s cost more of your income than say in 2021 etc….
Lol 😂😂😂😂
Stick to renovations
You will pwn nothing and be happy in your 15 min city
get trudeau out of here then things will be good
Love this channel but I got some really right wing vibes on this show.. had to stop watching