Guys, this was the first time I watched this show. I was trying to listen to it before I went to bed, and I realized that you two have the best voices and fluent speaking. It was lik I was listening to professional news anchor persons. Great job. Also, great research and perspective. It's true that condos are in excess supply, but they have not gone down like 30% in value. Long-term metrics such as supply, lower interest rates and population growth still support higher prices. There may be trouble for some over the next 6 to 8 momths, but then the inventory should stary to clear. I understand that your main point was not that, the realestate prices are going up crazy, but rhat they have not dropped like crazy. If someone had told me in early 2022 that the mortgage rates would rise to 6% plus, I would have expected a 40% price decline. I definitely think, the worst is behind us or in the next 6 to 8 months. Keep up the great work. You have a great show.
Thank you so much for the supportive feedback! We agree that we're not out of the waters yet, but it does feel like we're turning a corner, and brighter days are ahead! It will be interesting to see the new data published by TREBB this week! Have a wonderful start to your week, and we appreciate you tuning in:)
I would look at Ron Butler's RUclips videos for a clearer picture of the state of the real estate market today. Many units and homes are available to choose from, but no one can afford to buy them. He refers to these "Investor" condos as dog crates, which is the problem. Who wants to live in a 400 sq dog crate for $650K or even raise a family in one? What needs to be added is the need for more affordable housing. Most RE people pretend that that's not an issue. They want the "Investor" to return or hope immigration will replace the investor. I'm curious how many immigrants have $650 to 1 M to invest in a condo in Toronto.
Thanks for watching and commenting. In most major cities around the world people live in 400 square feet spaces, due to affordability. If someone doesn’t want to live in Manhattan to raise their family they can always move to Nebraska. As much as everyone talks about affordability 30 percent of the cost to build a new home is taxes. No developers can build in Toronto for less the 1500 per square foot and that like it or not it isn’t going to change anytime soon. If investors don’t / can’t return , in a few years time there will be next to no new properties in the pipeline ( which has already happened) and prices will be effected accordingly, contrary to what some believe most people and RE want housing affordability but the facts are the facts. Cheers !
@@Ralph_Fox , Thank you for your reply. I think we will have to see if the market thinks Toronto is like Hong Kong, Manhattan, and Singapore (all of which are islands). I heard that argument back in the 90s about Toronto becoming like Manhattan when I personally experienced the last major RE crash. Everyone back in the 90s said housing would go to $1M. There's no shortage of property, as we can see from the 26000 listings available. The only shortage is AFFORDABLE housing.
Hi @@paulspatafora8793 , if you look at Toronto on a map with Greenbelt circling around the city and the lake to the south, Toronto is essentially an Island from a development perspective. While there is a ton of inventory currently on the market, we are in more balanced market conditions, which is unusual for Toronto, but that does not mean that this will be the case in the future. Rates are coming down, and in my opinion quite rapldly and yet I don't expect it will dent affordability... I guess time will tell... but the one thing I can tell you is that I'm not selling :). Its interesting times indeed... cheers! R
Hi @@paulspatafora8793 , if you look at a map of Toronto, taking into consideration the Green Belt circling the North, East and West, and with the lake to the South, from a development perspective Toronto IS an island. While its very true there is a significant amount of inventory, on the market by Toronto standards... in Manhattan the average days on the market is 72 days and we are nowhere near that point. Having a more balanced market is not a bad thing, its actually quite healthy. Rates are are going to move downward quickly and in the end it will have little impact on affordability in the city. The current market conditions in no way reflect where the market could be in 3-5 years given the supply/ demand dynamic as it unfolds. When it comes to Toronto Real estate everyone has an opinion. I know I'm not selling :). Cheers, R
Thanks@@paulspatafora8793 ! If you look at a map of the GTA you will notice that the Green Belt surrounds the city in a sweeping ark from east to west, and with the lake to the south. From a development point of view, Toronto IS an Island .The Greenbelt ( and immigration) only coming into play in after 2005 and would not have been a factor in the market in the 90's. While its true that there is alot more inventory on the market then we are used to seeing, we are no where like cities like New York where the average days on the market is 70+ days... Overall given the current economic environment being in a more balanced market is a very healthy thing. Even as rates being moving downward ( I suspect more aggressively then most are predicting) it wont help affordability for the average Torontonian but thats just my two cents..Hope you are having a great long weekend!
When I purchased my condo in Nov 2008, I saw it as forced savings, as did most people at that time. In fact, the following year, the value decreased. Nobody panicked. Fast forward to February 2022, I sold it for almost 3 times what I paid and purchased a detached house a year later for the same amount I sold my condo for. This was 15 years in the making. You can’t watch the price of housing like you would a hot stock tip.
Thank you so much for the supportive comment - it means so much to us (especially when those slides took FOREVER - lol lol lol)! Have a great long weekend!
@@ronmurray7349 We have a special fax for flipping houses... I wonder if there one as well for flipping burgers :)... if not maybe JT can create one in the name of fairness for all Canadians :)
Very biased review of the RE market. Forecasting 1,000,000 price for a 1 bedroom in 2030 implies a 9.67% compounded annual return (1,000,000/575,000)^(1/6) 575000 = average 1 bedroom in TO as 2024 6 = years till 2030 what is your justification for that ? Did you also mention the adjustment for inflation when explaining the returns to people who bought at the top ? People please take this advice with a grain of salt
Thank you for your comments. We appreciate you listening and always respect a different opinion 🙌hand's down! In this case, we don't feel like we are being biased as we are straight up showcasing the last decade of Toronto statistics - and by no means representing ourselves as economists.
We didn't factor a major recession coming to Canada soon. It is all based on current projection. Only industry propping Canadian economy is real estate, nothing else. Major incoming job losses combined with global recession will change the projection. Best case for Canada is real estate will stay flat or slightly lower till 2030 and don't expect interest rate to go low as previously
@@eddo2994yup, that is a realistic proposal, and predictable from the last real estate cycle. But then r/e agents said the same rainbows and unicorns things last time too, and we know how that ended. But what else could one expect them to say? And yet here we are listening to the codswallop.
@@eddo2994 Thanks for commenting, if you look at GDP Capita, which is not masked by 1m people per year coming to Canada per yea you will see that we have been in a recession for quite some time. While we wont be going back anytime soon to zero rates, in my opinion rates are going to be coming down alot quicker then most people realize both in Canada and the US. if you cut out all the noise and look at the future pipeline of new inventory coming on line after 2027 and beyond, it will impact prices to the upside. Thanks again for watching!
You should know that if the condos are not selling, but the prices dropped only 4.8%, it means that only the best condos are picked. The rest will have to drop prices further. Next year even more.
True, only the most desirable and well presented condos are selling in this environment, however, no one is being forced to sell and that is why prices are holding. It will be interesting to see how things play out next year with many of the big banks and economist predicting the over night lending rate to be in the 2.75- 3.25% range. If that happens ( looking more likely every day) it will be interesting to see how that effects the market dynmaics... In the short term( 3-6 months) I would expect prices in the condo segment to remain soft... however long term ( 3+ years out) I remain bullish.... I guess time will tell.. thanks so much for watching and commenting!
That is precisely what we're showing - the averages. There will always be exceptions depending on the building, location, age, tenanted, non-tenanted, maintenance fee costs, amenities etc. We just sold two oversized condos (which tend to command less PSF) last week for $1,055 and $1,012 PSF, but others earlier this summer to closer to $900 PSF.
@@FoxMarinAssociatesToronto right, so it’s not correct to suggest the the people who bought condos in 2019 or 2020 have experienced any actual gains. I’ve seen lots of condos selling for less than the prices paid back then, which after inflation, costs and the lost opportunity of investing in other assets that have gone up (stocks) means condo buyers have been crushed!
@@DrDrae81, we agree that if you purchased a condo in 2019 or 2020 and sold it today, you would not net a profit with the cost to acquire (including our lovely double land transfer taxes), cost to hold & maintain, and the costs to sell. However, we're simply showing the average prices over the last decade. Individual condo owners can decide if it's the right time to sell (or not). As per your example, many stocks have gone up, but many have also gone down - look at what happened yesterday as an example!
@@FoxMarinAssociatesTorontothe S&P 500 is up over 80% in the last 5 years. If you had bought that and rented instead of a condo you would easily be able to buy a semi in Toronto today!
@@DrDrae81 its all about context and timelines... for example if you bought bitcoin in August 2020 you'd be up 445%. 80% over the last 5 years barely out preformed inflation & currency debasement while paying down your landlords mortgage. Honestly though, we really appreciate you watching and sharing your POV. Hope you have a great long weekend.
I wish real estate brokers had some basic knowledge of finance, credit cycles, affordability, economics, and intrinsic value of asset class 🤦🏻 Also, when you consider the last 10 years, you are only considering up cycles. You have to compare the up cycle with down cycles.
I wish people wouldn't make generalized statements like that, its not a good look :). How about if we had zoomed out on the charts to 1970?and /or 2008? Thanks so much for watching and commenting.
@Ralph_Fox that would have been a great comparison video. Specifically, affordability and per capita income then and now. The majority of the population falls under the median income group, and how much has their income increased as compared to price. To resolve any problem, we have to first identify it and try to work out a solution. Real estate as an asset class has cycles. Things may remain stagnant until the income catches up or prices are correct to match affordability. Appreciate both of you trying to spread knowledge and awareness. Mostly, whatever is happening right now is no one's fault except government and their policies. It will take someone with a will to resolve this. Hoping for the best 🤞
@@mehulpatel1313 Thank you. Your comments above make a lot of sense, and we will keep this in mind for future podcasts. Hope you are enjoying your long weekend.
@Ralph_Fox I work in the RE industry, too. We have a lot of these discussions on what we can do to help developers bring back affordability. How we can add value to our projects. Around 25-30% goes to gov on any condominium project, and construction hard cost is 40% approx of a project. We need to find a way to bring these costs down to make things more affordable to end users/common people. Also, look into how much gov spends on the salaries of gov employees. All gov departments have swollen with decreased productivity. Need to trim down the gov departments by simplifying the gov processes using technology. Shift the employees in pvt sector for higher productivity. The list of gov reforms required is long, I can keep going on and on. Enjoy your long weekend. Have fun!
Thanks for watching and commenting, it can be upsetting when data and facts presented don’t support your preconceived viewpoint…. This has nothing to do with FOMO or unemployment , it’s just a breakdown of the current market in relation to the last decade as per TRREB and a measured discussion of that data. Nothing more and nothing less. Feel free to make your own conclusions .Thanks again for tuning in.
Guys, this was the first time I watched this show. I was trying to listen to it before I went to bed, and I realized that you two have the best voices and fluent speaking. It was lik I was listening to professional news anchor persons. Great job. Also, great research and perspective. It's true that condos are in excess supply, but they have not gone down like 30% in value. Long-term metrics such as supply, lower interest rates and population growth still support higher prices. There may be trouble for some over the next 6 to 8 momths, but then the inventory should stary to clear. I understand that your main point was not that, the realestate prices are going up crazy, but rhat they have not dropped like crazy. If someone had told me in early 2022 that the mortgage rates would rise to 6% plus, I would have expected a 40% price decline. I definitely think, the worst is behind us or in the next 6 to 8 months. Keep up the great work. You have a great show.
Thank you so much for the supportive feedback! We agree that we're not out of the waters yet, but it does feel like we're turning a corner, and brighter days are ahead! It will be interesting to see the new data published by TREBB this week! Have a wonderful start to your week, and we appreciate you tuning in:)
I would look at Ron Butler's RUclips videos for a clearer picture of the state of the real estate market today. Many units and homes are available to choose from, but no one can afford to buy them. He refers to these "Investor" condos as dog crates, which is the problem. Who wants to live in a 400 sq dog crate for $650K or even raise a family in one? What needs to be added is the need for more affordable housing. Most RE people pretend that that's not an issue. They want the "Investor" to return or hope immigration will replace the investor. I'm curious how many immigrants have $650 to 1 M to invest in a condo in Toronto.
Thanks for watching and commenting. In most major cities around the world people live in 400 square feet spaces, due to affordability. If someone doesn’t want to live in Manhattan to raise their family they can always move to Nebraska. As much as everyone talks about affordability 30 percent of the cost to build a new home is taxes. No developers can build in Toronto for less the 1500 per square foot and that like it or not it isn’t going to change anytime soon. If investors don’t / can’t return , in a few years time there will be next to no new properties in the pipeline ( which has already happened) and prices will be effected accordingly, contrary to what some believe most people and RE want housing affordability but the facts are the facts. Cheers !
@@Ralph_Fox , Thank you for your reply. I think we will have to see if the market thinks Toronto is like Hong Kong, Manhattan, and Singapore (all of which are islands). I heard that argument back in the 90s about Toronto becoming like Manhattan when I personally experienced the last major RE crash. Everyone back in the 90s said housing would go to $1M. There's no shortage of property, as we can see from the 26000 listings available. The only shortage is AFFORDABLE housing.
Hi @@paulspatafora8793 , if you look at Toronto on a map with Greenbelt circling around the city and the lake to the south, Toronto is essentially an Island from a development perspective. While there is a ton of inventory currently on the market, we are in more balanced market conditions, which is unusual for Toronto, but that does not mean that this will be the case in the future. Rates are coming down, and in my opinion quite rapldly and yet I don't expect it will dent affordability... I guess time will tell... but the one thing I can tell you is that I'm not selling :). Its interesting times indeed... cheers! R
Hi @@paulspatafora8793 , if you look at a map of Toronto, taking into consideration the Green Belt circling the North, East and West, and with the lake to the South, from a development perspective Toronto IS an island. While its very true there is a significant amount of inventory, on the market by Toronto standards... in Manhattan the average days on the market is 72 days and we are nowhere near that point. Having a more balanced market is not a bad thing, its actually quite healthy. Rates are are going to move downward quickly and in the end it will have little impact on affordability in the city. The current market conditions in no way reflect where the market could be in 3-5 years given the supply/ demand dynamic as it unfolds. When it comes to Toronto Real estate everyone has an opinion. I know I'm not selling :). Cheers, R
Thanks@@paulspatafora8793 ! If you look at a map of the GTA you will notice that the Green Belt surrounds the city in a sweeping ark from east to west, and with the lake to the south. From a development point of view, Toronto IS an Island .The Greenbelt ( and immigration) only coming into play in after 2005 and would not have been a factor in the market in the 90's. While its true that there is alot more inventory on the market then we are used to seeing, we are no where like cities like New York where the average days on the market is 70+ days... Overall given the current economic environment being in a more balanced market is a very healthy thing. Even as rates being moving downward ( I suspect more aggressively then most are predicting) it wont help affordability for the average Torontonian but thats just my two cents..Hope you are having a great long weekend!
When I purchased my condo in Nov 2008, I saw it as forced savings, as did most people at that time. In fact, the following year, the value decreased. Nobody panicked. Fast forward to February 2022, I sold it for almost 3 times what I paid and purchased a detached house a year later for the same amount I sold my condo for. This was 15 years in the making. You can’t watch the price of housing like you would a hot stock tip.
Thank you for watching and commenting. The key to building wealth is to think, long term with first principals and then cut out all the noise !!
Incredibly timely and meaningful information! Thanks for taking this extra effort for your clients and followers!
Thank you so much for the supportive comment - it means so much to us (especially when those slides took FOREVER - lol lol lol)! Have a great long weekend!
Great information, love the content!
Thank you for tuning in, Ryan, and for sharing supportive feedback! Have a great long weekend!
It's a shame Canada has no good manufacturing industry good technical jobs....but world highest property?!!!!
For sure! We need to bring back good jobs to Canada, perhaps a change in government would be a helpful start. Thanks for watching !
@@ronmurray7349 We have a special fax for flipping houses... I wonder if there one as well for flipping burgers :)... if not maybe JT can create one in the name of fairness for all Canadians :)
Very biased review of the RE market. Forecasting 1,000,000 price for a 1 bedroom in 2030 implies a 9.67% compounded annual return (1,000,000/575,000)^(1/6)
575000 = average 1 bedroom in TO as 2024
6 = years till 2030
what is your justification for that ? Did you also mention the adjustment for inflation when explaining the returns to people who bought at the top ?
People please take this advice with a grain of salt
Thank you for your comments. We appreciate you listening and always respect a different opinion 🙌hand's down! In this case, we don't feel like we are being biased as we are straight up showcasing the last decade of Toronto statistics - and by no means representing ourselves as economists.
We didn't factor a major recession coming to Canada soon. It is all based on current projection. Only industry propping Canadian economy is real estate, nothing else. Major incoming job losses combined with global recession will change the projection. Best case for Canada is real estate will stay flat or slightly lower till 2030 and don't expect interest rate to go low as previously
@@eddo2994yup, that is a realistic proposal, and predictable from the last real estate cycle. But then r/e agents said the same rainbows and unicorns things last time too, and we know how that ended. But what else could one expect them to say? And yet here we are listening to the codswallop.
@@eddo2994 Thanks for commenting, if you look at GDP Capita, which is not masked by 1m people per year coming to Canada per yea you will see that we have been in a recession for quite some time. While we wont be going back anytime soon to zero rates, in my opinion rates are going to be coming down alot quicker then most people realize both in Canada and the US. if you cut out all the noise and look at the future pipeline of new inventory coming on line after 2027 and beyond, it will impact prices to the upside. Thanks again for watching!
People aren't exhausted they are just priced out, it's cheaper to rent than buy unless you have 40% down that's the problem in a nutshell
@@ronmurray7349 hard to believe but true...
You should know that if the condos are not selling, but the prices dropped only 4.8%, it means that only the best condos are picked. The rest will have to drop prices further. Next year even more.
True, only the most desirable and well presented condos are selling in this environment, however, no one is being forced to sell and that is why prices are holding. It will be interesting to see how things play out next year with many of the big banks and economist predicting the over night lending rate to be in the 2.75- 3.25% range. If that happens ( looking more likely every day) it will be interesting to see how that effects the market dynmaics... In the short term( 3-6 months) I would expect prices in the condo segment to remain soft... however long term ( 3+ years out) I remain bullish.... I guess time will tell.. thanks so much for watching and commenting!
Your stats are misleading as average prices blend new buildings with old. I’m seeing lots of condos sell for pre-2020 prices.
That is precisely what we're showing - the averages. There will always be exceptions depending on the building, location, age, tenanted, non-tenanted, maintenance fee costs, amenities etc. We just sold two oversized condos (which tend to command less PSF) last week for $1,055 and $1,012 PSF, but others earlier this summer to closer to $900 PSF.
@@FoxMarinAssociatesToronto right, so it’s not correct to suggest the the people who bought condos in 2019 or 2020 have experienced any actual gains. I’ve seen lots of condos selling for less than the prices paid back then, which after inflation, costs and the lost opportunity of investing in other assets that have gone up (stocks) means condo buyers have been crushed!
@@DrDrae81, we agree that if you purchased a condo in 2019 or 2020 and sold it today, you would not net a profit with the cost to acquire (including our lovely double land transfer taxes), cost to hold & maintain, and the costs to sell. However, we're simply showing the average prices over the last decade. Individual condo owners can decide if it's the right time to sell (or not). As per your example, many stocks have gone up, but many have also gone down - look at what happened yesterday as an example!
@@FoxMarinAssociatesTorontothe S&P 500 is up over 80% in the last 5 years. If you had bought that and rented instead of a condo you would easily be able to buy a semi in Toronto today!
@@DrDrae81 its all about context and timelines... for example if you bought bitcoin in August 2020 you'd be up 445%. 80% over the last 5 years barely out preformed inflation & currency debasement while paying down your landlords mortgage. Honestly though, we really appreciate you watching and sharing your POV. Hope you have a great long weekend.
I wish real estate brokers had some basic knowledge of finance, credit cycles, affordability, economics, and intrinsic value of asset class 🤦🏻
Also, when you consider the last 10 years, you are only considering up cycles. You have to compare the up cycle with down cycles.
I wish people wouldn't make generalized statements like that, its not a good look :). How about if we had zoomed out on the charts to 1970?and /or 2008? Thanks so much for watching and commenting.
@Ralph_Fox that would have been a great comparison video. Specifically, affordability and per capita income then and now. The majority of the population falls under the median income group, and how much has their income increased as compared to price.
To resolve any problem, we have to first identify it and try to work out a solution. Real estate as an asset class has cycles. Things may remain stagnant until the income catches up or prices are correct to match affordability.
Appreciate both of you trying to spread knowledge and awareness. Mostly, whatever is happening right now is no one's fault except government and their policies. It will take someone with a will to resolve this. Hoping for the best 🤞
@@mehulpatel1313 Thank you. Your comments above make a lot of sense, and we will keep this in mind for future podcasts. Hope you are enjoying your long weekend.
@Ralph_Fox I work in the RE industry, too. We have a lot of these discussions on what we can do to help developers bring back affordability. How we can add value to our projects. Around 25-30% goes to gov on any condominium project, and construction hard cost is 40% approx of a project. We need to find a way to bring these costs down to make things more affordable to end users/common people.
Also, look into how much gov spends on the salaries of gov employees. All gov departments have swollen with decreased productivity. Need to trim down the gov departments by simplifying the gov processes using technology. Shift the employees in pvt sector for higher productivity.
The list of gov reforms required is long, I can keep going on and on.
Enjoy your long weekend. Have fun!
what they are talking about ? they never touched unemployment. fully biased and designed for FOMO creation...don't listen to them
Thanks for watching and commenting, it can be upsetting when data and facts presented don’t support your preconceived viewpoint…. This has nothing to do with FOMO or unemployment , it’s just a breakdown of the current market in relation to the last decade as per TRREB and a measured discussion of that data. Nothing more and nothing less. Feel free to make your own conclusions .Thanks again for tuning in.
@@Ralph_Fox Thanks. I wont be watching this channel again.