I was inspired to create this video by Zaknafein and more recently Bashrobe. I hope this inspires more research on weather in The Long Dark. Custom Interloper Settings Code: svnM-Qs/x-KxtQ-Ge9+-N0YA Raw Data is available on this Google doc sheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13tiF5Qw9EpY2bjIrJPqYsskFpCTlkc9J/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=106459882511859924051&rtpof=true&sd=true Correction: @14:05 I said that the mode of the wind chill was -9, when it was -6 in that example.
I haven't watched yet, but one thing I've noticed when I play difficulty levels higher than pilgrim is that if you're outside moving around and you're over encumbered, it seems like the % chance for the weather to change to blizzard goes up exponentially over time. Anyone else experience the same?
If you decide to do more science based videos for The Long Dark, I'm sold! We need someone in this community to talk about science in a science heavy apocalypse. Amazing job on this video!
Hello, fellow scientist. Consider this study peer-reviewed and approved. The editorial of the Great Bear Journal congratulate you on your pioneering work with this pilot study and encourages you to continue your research with bigger samples and more regions recruited. Kind regards, GG.
Amazing work! I really like that you did proper statistical analysis on that data. It’s a shame that data collection is so time consuming, analysing it looks really fun.
5:00 one of the games most beautiful parts is the light FX and colouring they use is just stunning and really makes you feel alive and wanting to go out when it's a beautiful day in game
I do know that in sundered pass, it does get colder the higher you go. I would be curious if this is true of places like ash canyon and timberwolf mountain. Also, I saw another RUclipsr mention that he feels like blizzards don't last as long when you pass time for multiple hours during a blizzard. He says he passes time for like 3-4 hours and cancels it when the blizzard stops. I have no idea if there is any correlation. Great video! Love the data!
There is one thing that I believe could also alter the data of this experiment. When transitioning from one region to another, does the weather stay the same? I believe it does, meaning a blizzard in CH would likely persist when transitioning over to PV or ML. There may be a system in place that does actually determine the percent chance of each weather type and it accounts for weather events that started while in a different location. Afterwards, it may change the weather percentages to reflect the new region. Additionally, there is something in the game that helps you tell when the weather has started to change. I can't remember if it was Bashrobe, but the randomly spawned flock of crows that fly overhead can only happen when certain weather conditions are met. Some people confuse it as if the flock spawning has triggered a change in weather. What is really happening is that the weather has changed to meet the conditions of the flock spawn. Generally, the flock of crows that fly overhead will only spawn if the weather is either clear or not windy. If you see them fly overhead, this indicates the conditions for their spawn are met. This is a great indicator that the weather is about to improve, especially if it was just windy or blizzarding.
I think you are correct about transitioning between regions affecting the weather. This is difficult to test systematically. But I believe there is a system the creates continuity in weather between regions. I have certainly seen a blizzard start in CH and continue to blizzard in PV after passing through the Cinder Hills Mine. I suspect there is a system by which weather can be blended between regions during travel. As an example, I never saw it warmer than -28 during 40 days of camping out in Timberwolf in this study. But in my main Interloper run, while passing through from a warmer region, I once saw it at -25 in Timberwolf.
I could imagine listening to this over the radio during an aroura. Id imagine that it would be broadcasted out of the weather station out of sunderd pass!
Thanks for the encouragement! I am thinking about doing this analysis for TFT. I feel like the only serious base locations are the Hangar in FA and the Last Lonely House in SP.
Very good video! I love these little facts and such. The only thing I think might be a bit inaccurate here, is wind chill and it's correlation to starting fires. The numbers presented are correct, no doubt about it. However wind chill seems to be connected to overal temperature outside as well. For instance, in a cold region like Forsaken Airfield, in the early morning when it is foggy, the wind chill can still be around -15C, even though fog generally doesn't have winds and you can always start and maintain fires in foggy weather types. I remember I also had a very cold morning high up in Sundered Pass, where it was foggy, and the wind chill was in that fog around -18, despite not noticing any types of winds. And I was totally able to start and maintain a fire despite that wind chill number. Therefore I think wind chill is not a reliable way to estimate if you can keep fires lit because it also ties in to ambient temperatures, but rather you should just observe the actual wind. I believe that once the wind slows you down noticeably when you walk into a headwind, that tends to be the moment where fires can blow out. I have no facts on it but this is my general impression of what tends to happen. Thanks a lot for the video, I had a blast watching it.
I would love to see more data like this! I enjoy learning more in depth about this game. I’d love to see the far territories with this treatment!! I know it seems a lot harsher and colder than the main areas.
that was a really cool study,i'm left curious to see more data point past 6pm all the way through nightime,also would be nice to see the Far territory regions and/or the remaining lower great bear regions.The windchill barometer to see if its a good day or not is quite interesting and ill keep a look a it myself in my run too see how reliable it can potentially become as an indicator.
The Sundered Pass weather seemed comparable to Forsaken Airfield, or the Transfer Pass. But I can't be the only person who noticed the peak with the radar dish being -65...not normal temps, with good visibility just LOTS of wind, to the point I had to use many pieces of coal to be able to get warm even when protected from it. Obviously It's a location important to the questline and only occurs when the player is at the right point, but still intriguing.
Thank you for this much needed information. Some questions to ask 1) Weather Crows Reliable or a myth 2) Is there a pattern? Example, if it is foggy in DP will clear weather follow? 3) Are there reliable indicators to predict changes? 4) Will you study regions like Hushed River Valley and Sundered Pass?
thank you very much for your video was very informative and understanding how whether works in each region good luck would all future work and endeavors
One thing I’ve always noticed with at least in sundered pass and forsaken airfield the blizzards last significantly longer then the base game regions an entire in game day of daylight in fact
Great video. Really cool aproach, with all the data, spreadsheets. Can't wait to see this experiment aplied into another regions! Perhaps during night time to cover auroras too!
The wind isnt stronger in the morning, but the colder temperatures will cause a stronger wind chill effect. That also is likely why mystery lake and coastal highway have a lower windchill value.
This is a reasonable hypothesis. To be proven, someone would have to collect the actual windspeed values, not the windchill factors that are the only thing knowable to the player in the un-modded game. It's true that I was imprecise when speaking of wind and windchill factor.
@ScienceintheDark Thats fair. I may be wrong but I believe as far as windspeed goes theres only 4 speeds, none, low, medium and high. And only high winds blow out fire and affect movement speed. I have a theory that each speed has an assigned percentage value, but it could also be based on a real windchill chart. From playing around with outdoor fires there is no windchill affect once the ambient temp is above 10 degrees celsius.
I think the best information on wind comes from Bashrobe's video (10 Fire Tips from 3 months ago) in which he explains some wind/fire mechanics. In the video you can see the console he's using that reads out actual windspeed. It appears to be very specific values (like 24.3 MPH). I'm not sure that fits with a 4 speed system. But reviewing that video, I see that gusts blow out fires when windspeed is high enough for gusts to get over 40 MPH. And fires can't be started or fed at all when base windspeed is over 40 MPH. One thing I could have done would have been to try to start a fire in the open at each time point to determine when the actual windspeed is over 40MPH. But probably easier just to get the console and collect the data if this value is important. Which arguably it is for fire purposes.
@@ScienceintheDark Wow, thats really neat! I never knew there was actual wind gusts. I thought it was just a sound effect. Thanks for all your research!
That reminds me of my statistics class at uni especially the future directions part 😂. However thank you for this extremely useful information and dedication 🎉
I believe your data may be skewed by the fact that cold fusion does not actually add +2 degrees as stated, but is actually more than that. I believe Bashrobe covers this during his feats guide
This is a good point. Bashrobe did not completely explain this, but he says that it adds a +2 to air temperature and also improves windchill since temperature is factored into windchill. In extremely high wind conditions (blizzards) he indicates Cold Fusion takes a degree or so off of windchill as well as the 2 on temperature. But this "skewing" is what we call systematic error. So shouldn't change the underlying findings. The temperature could easily be adjusted by the -2 degrees. The windchill numbers would require the windchill formula to fix. To my knowledge, no one has published this. Then again, most Interloper players use Cold Fusion, so it may be better to present these numbers.
it would be interesting to see whether patterns at night time and full moons and auroras as well also the far territories how their weather differs if any
This is an extensive and exhaustive study given the nature of the game, good work! I base often at Quincy's in coastal highway and yes the weather is great. I did notice that your data indicates that blizzards are more frequent. I have experienced this throughout my playthroughs, but I've always felt that they don't last as long compared to other regions like PV. I wonder if this is testable? The frequent blizzards does have its boons though, it resets beachcombing loot. Although not guaranteed, it is reliable imo.
The weather RNG is not based on a seed (actually pseudo-random) or there are player or world events which advance the weather RNG. Meaning, if you save your game, go outside and get a random blizzard, just quit the game, reload the save, and try again until you get nice weather.
I agree that the weather RNG is not seed specific. However, I have been told by someone who has used the console mod that there is a timer running "under the hood" that marks when the next weather change will occur and you can see what the next weather condition will be. Suggesting the "roll" happens ahead of the weather change. If that's true, repeated reloading of the game would yield the same weather in the near term, but divergent weather for the weather state after next.
Seems like the longest blizzard in your research was 6 hours. Besides the far territories I would be curious about weather in Bleak Inlet, Hushed River Valley and Ash Canyon. Seems like your warmest air temperature 3 Celsius.
That +3 degrees would be the "feels like" temperature on a warm afternoon in Mystery Lake or Coastal Highway with 80% condition gear. But with the new plans from the Trader, a cougar wrap, and a complete set of 100% condition gear, the "feels like" could be even warmer.
You can use mode for console and just give yourself "god mod" to become actuall *weather station* -No need for shelter or water ect -No Feats to screw with data (aslo same settings on custome sometimes do stuff differently not cause the difficulty is different but cause its broken like the stalker was and i think still is have the STRONGEST wolf then interloper) -No need for walking back and forths Ect Aslo you can use it too pass a days if you want to do more experiment, i would definitely love to see them Otherwise thx for data P.s. sorry for bad grammar, not my native
This is all very true. I haven't used any mods. Honestly, the Long Dark is my escape and how I unwind from work. Even though I collected all this data, I don't want to see that world as the Matrix, a collection of 1s and 0s, with a Mod that turns me into Neo. So I collected the data while "immersed" in the game; as a scientist trying to understand the quiet apocalypse. But that's just me. There's no wrong way to play the game.
Constructive criticism: The "PowerPoint style" does not work in RUclips. You should take advantage of the video dynamics, do not use static images with text.
I couldn't agree with you more. I'm just a guy that loves The Long Dark (and a scientist). Honestly, I had hoped for a long time that one of the larger Long Dark channels would take on the weather questions. Ideally with some high quality videos. But no one has. So I'm just trying to get the information out there.
It's not always about the style or the design that attracts people. Here, it's all about information, on a tiny but strong community, on very little researched topic, which would only benefit everyone here, just because it IS existing. Appreciate your work, doc!
I was inspired to create this video by Zaknafein and more recently Bashrobe. I hope this inspires more research on weather in The Long Dark.
Custom Interloper Settings Code:
svnM-Qs/x-KxtQ-Ge9+-N0YA
Raw Data is available on this Google doc sheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13tiF5Qw9EpY2bjIrJPqYsskFpCTlkc9J/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=106459882511859924051&rtpof=true&sd=true
Correction:
@14:05 I said that the mode of the wind chill was -9, when it was -6 in that example.
I haven't watched yet, but one thing I've noticed when I play difficulty levels higher than pilgrim is that if you're outside moving around and you're over encumbered, it seems like the % chance for the weather to change to blizzard goes up exponentially over time. Anyone else experience the same?
Just realized I hadn't commented on this, despite being one of the first to see it. Great video and very thorough! Conference-style! Love it.
If you decide to do more science based videos for The Long Dark, I'm sold! We need someone in this community to talk about science in a science heavy apocalypse. Amazing job on this video!
Hello, fellow scientist. Consider this study peer-reviewed and approved. The editorial of the Great Bear Journal congratulate you on your pioneering work with this pilot study and encourages you to continue your research with bigger samples and more regions recruited. Kind regards, GG.
I imagine finding this video on an old cd and plugging it into a laptop during an aurora
Amazing work! I really like that you did proper statistical analysis on that data. It’s a shame that data collection is so time consuming, analysing it looks really fun.
5:00 one of the games most beautiful parts is the light FX and colouring they use is just stunning and really makes you feel alive and wanting to go out when it's a beautiful day in game
An absolute gold of a video for our tiny, but strong community. Appreciate your work!
I do know that in sundered pass, it does get colder the higher you go. I would be curious if this is true of places like ash canyon and timberwolf mountain.
Also, I saw another RUclipsr mention that he feels like blizzards don't last as long when you pass time for multiple hours during a blizzard. He says he passes time for like 3-4 hours and cancels it when the blizzard stops. I have no idea if there is any correlation.
Great video! Love the data!
Definetly has to do something with certain actions triggering weather change and I select 5+ hours for passing time :P
Regards, another RUclipsr ^^
You are a legend. Thank you for this study! Just got back into the long dark after a long break. Found this very interesting!
With this I think it's clear we need to start the TED talks of Great Bear.
The TLD Talks.
There is one thing that I believe could also alter the data of this experiment. When transitioning from one region to another, does the weather stay the same? I believe it does, meaning a blizzard in CH would likely persist when transitioning over to PV or ML. There may be a system in place that does actually determine the percent chance of each weather type and it accounts for weather events that started while in a different location. Afterwards, it may change the weather percentages to reflect the new region.
Additionally, there is something in the game that helps you tell when the weather has started to change. I can't remember if it was Bashrobe, but the randomly spawned flock of crows that fly overhead can only happen when certain weather conditions are met. Some people confuse it as if the flock spawning has triggered a change in weather. What is really happening is that the weather has changed to meet the conditions of the flock spawn. Generally, the flock of crows that fly overhead will only spawn if the weather is either clear or not windy. If you see them fly overhead, this indicates the conditions for their spawn are met. This is a great indicator that the weather is about to improve, especially if it was just windy or blizzarding.
I think you are correct about transitioning between regions affecting the weather. This is difficult to test systematically. But I believe there is a system the creates continuity in weather between regions. I have certainly seen a blizzard start in CH and continue to blizzard in PV after passing through the Cinder Hills Mine. I suspect there is a system by which weather can be blended between regions during travel. As an example, I never saw it warmer than -28 during 40 days of camping out in Timberwolf in this study. But in my main Interloper run, while passing through from a warmer region, I once saw it at -25 in Timberwolf.
I could imagine listening to this over the radio during an aroura. Id imagine that it would be broadcasted out of the weather station out of sunderd pass!
Another new fellow scientist? I am sold keep up the good your my friend
Great topic rarely covered.... Subbed
love the dedication you had to this
The 1 channel ill put notifs on for. Insane research! Would be interesting to compare TFT regions to this.
Thanks for the encouragement! I am thinking about doing this analysis for TFT. I feel like the only serious base locations are the Hangar in FA and the Last Lonely House in SP.
Very useful video, thank you for putting in all the hard work to gather this information!
Very good video! I love these little facts and such. The only thing I think might be a bit inaccurate here, is wind chill and it's correlation to starting fires. The numbers presented are correct, no doubt about it. However wind chill seems to be connected to overal temperature outside as well. For instance, in a cold region like Forsaken Airfield, in the early morning when it is foggy, the wind chill can still be around -15C, even though fog generally doesn't have winds and you can always start and maintain fires in foggy weather types. I remember I also had a very cold morning high up in Sundered Pass, where it was foggy, and the wind chill was in that fog around -18, despite not noticing any types of winds. And I was totally able to start and maintain a fire despite that wind chill number.
Therefore I think wind chill is not a reliable way to estimate if you can keep fires lit because it also ties in to ambient temperatures, but rather you should just observe the actual wind. I believe that once the wind slows you down noticeably when you walk into a headwind, that tends to be the moment where fires can blow out. I have no facts on it but this is my general impression of what tends to happen. Thanks a lot for the video, I had a blast watching it.
I would love to see more data like this! I enjoy learning more in depth about this game. I’d love to see the far territories with this treatment!! I know it seems a lot harsher and colder than the main areas.
Awesome video! Thank you for sharing this experiment with us all
This was very thoroughly done, and useful as well, especially for those just getting into the game and learning the mechanics.
that was a really cool study,i'm left curious to see more data point past 6pm all the way through nightime,also would be nice to see the Far territory regions and/or the remaining lower great bear regions.The windchill barometer to see if its a good day or not is quite interesting and ill keep a look a it myself in my run too see how reliable it can potentially become as an indicator.
Great video! Looking forward for more videos of this type from you
The Sundered Pass weather seemed comparable to Forsaken Airfield, or the Transfer Pass. But I can't be the only person who noticed the peak with the radar dish being -65...not normal temps, with good visibility just LOTS of wind, to the point I had to use many pieces of coal to be able to get warm even when protected from it. Obviously It's a location important to the questline and only occurs when the player is at the right point, but still intriguing.
Thank you for this much needed information. Some questions to ask 1) Weather Crows Reliable or a myth 2) Is there a pattern? Example, if it is foggy in DP will clear weather follow? 3) Are there reliable indicators to predict changes? 4) Will you study regions like Hushed River Valley and Sundered Pass?
1) those crows only spawning when its clear or not windy, so if it winde outside and you hear crows flying above you - weather will improve
Weather crow are semi myth due their spawn being based on a random timer but can only spawn in certain conditions. It's weird but yeah half myth.
thank you very much for your video was very informative and understanding how whether works in each region good luck would all future work and endeavors
Love this, please keep making videos
One thing I’ve always noticed with at least in sundered pass and forsaken airfield the blizzards last significantly longer then the base game regions an entire in game day of daylight in fact
Incredible work! Very useful information. I wonder if the more common auroras in bleak inlet affects the weather and temperature in a significant way
Great video. Really cool aproach, with all the data, spreadsheets. Can't wait to see this experiment aplied into another regions! Perhaps during night time to cover auroras too!
It would be interesting to get some data on absence/presence fish data with weather data and try to fit a species distribution model😂 Good job btw👍
The wind isnt stronger in the morning, but the colder temperatures will cause a stronger wind chill effect. That also is likely why mystery lake and coastal highway have a lower windchill value.
This is a reasonable hypothesis. To be proven, someone would have to collect the actual windspeed values, not the windchill factors that are the only thing knowable to the player in the un-modded game. It's true that I was imprecise when speaking of wind and windchill factor.
@ScienceintheDark Thats fair. I may be wrong but I believe as far as windspeed goes theres only 4 speeds, none, low, medium and high. And only high winds blow out fire and affect movement speed. I have a theory that each speed has an assigned percentage value, but it could also be based on a real windchill chart. From playing around with outdoor fires there is no windchill affect once the ambient temp is above 10 degrees celsius.
I think the best information on wind comes from Bashrobe's video (10 Fire Tips from 3 months ago) in which he explains some wind/fire mechanics. In the video you can see the console he's using that reads out actual windspeed. It appears to be very specific values (like 24.3 MPH). I'm not sure that fits with a 4 speed system. But reviewing that video, I see that gusts blow out fires when windspeed is high enough for gusts to get over 40 MPH. And fires can't be started or fed at all when base windspeed is over 40 MPH. One thing I could have done would have been to try to start a fire in the open at each time point to determine when the actual windspeed is over 40MPH. But probably easier just to get the console and collect the data if this value is important. Which arguably it is for fire purposes.
@@ScienceintheDark Wow, thats really neat! I never knew there was actual wind gusts. I thought it was just a sound effect. Thanks for all your research!
Well designed and presented research. Thanks for sharing!
Great video!
That reminds me of my statistics class at uni especially the future directions part 😂. However thank you for this extremely useful information and dedication 🎉
This is great content.
I believe your data may be skewed by the fact that cold fusion does not actually add +2 degrees as stated, but is actually more than that. I believe Bashrobe covers this during his feats guide
This is a good point. Bashrobe did not completely explain this, but he says that it adds a +2 to air temperature and also improves windchill since temperature is factored into windchill. In extremely high wind conditions (blizzards) he indicates Cold Fusion takes a degree or so off of windchill as well as the 2 on temperature. But this "skewing" is what we call systematic error. So shouldn't change the underlying findings. The temperature could easily be adjusted by the -2 degrees. The windchill numbers would require the windchill formula to fix. To my knowledge, no one has published this. Then again, most Interloper players use Cold Fusion, so it may be better to present these numbers.
it would be interesting to see whether patterns at night time and full moons and auroras as well also the far territories how their weather differs if any
amazing video
This is an extensive and exhaustive study given the nature of the game, good work!
I base often at Quincy's in coastal highway and yes the weather is great. I did notice that your data indicates that blizzards are more frequent. I have experienced this throughout my playthroughs, but I've always felt that they don't last as long compared to other regions like PV. I wonder if this is testable?
The frequent blizzards does have its boons though, it resets beachcombing loot. Although not guaranteed, it is reliable imo.
More, please! Thank you! 🥶
This is good stuff 👍
The weather RNG is not based on a seed (actually pseudo-random) or there are player or world events which advance the weather RNG.
Meaning, if you save your game, go outside and get a random blizzard, just quit the game, reload the save, and try again until you get nice weather.
I agree that the weather RNG is not seed specific. However, I have been told by someone who has used the console mod that there is a timer running "under the hood" that marks when the next weather change will occur and you can see what the next weather condition will be. Suggesting the "roll" happens ahead of the weather change. If that's true, repeated reloading of the game would yield the same weather in the near term, but divergent weather for the weather state after next.
Seems like the longest blizzard in your research was 6 hours. Besides the far territories I would be curious about weather in Bleak Inlet, Hushed River Valley and Ash Canyon. Seems like your warmest air temperature 3 Celsius.
That +3 degrees would be the "feels like" temperature on a warm afternoon in Mystery Lake or Coastal Highway with 80% condition gear. But with the new plans from the Trader, a cougar wrap, and a complete set of 100% condition gear, the "feels like" could be even warmer.
@@ScienceintheDark Wondering about the actual temperature, no wind, chill no bonuses and no clothes.
great work
thanks
would love to know how time works in TLD
You can use mode for console and just give yourself "god mod" to become actuall *weather station*
-No need for shelter or water ect
-No Feats to screw with data (aslo same settings on custome sometimes do stuff differently not cause the difficulty is different but cause its broken like the stalker was and i think still is have the STRONGEST wolf then interloper)
-No need for walking back and forths
Ect
Aslo you can use it too pass a days
if you want to do more experiment, i would definitely love to see them
Otherwise thx for data
P.s. sorry for bad grammar, not my native
This is all very true. I haven't used any mods. Honestly, the Long Dark is my escape and how I unwind from work. Even though I collected all this data, I don't want to see that world as the Matrix, a collection of 1s and 0s, with a Mod that turns me into Neo. So I collected the data while "immersed" in the game; as a scientist trying to understand the quiet apocalypse. But that's just me. There's no wrong way to play the game.
1st subscriber man, keep it up
ive yet to live longer than like 7 hrs IRL time on interloper till i starve to deth
game is effin hard
Just putting a comment for your youtube growth, good video tho
Hello survivor
Comment
Constructive criticism: The "PowerPoint style" does not work in RUclips. You should take advantage of the video dynamics, do not use static images with text.
I couldn't agree with you more. I'm just a guy that loves The Long Dark (and a scientist). Honestly, I had hoped for a long time that one of the larger Long Dark channels would take on the weather questions. Ideally with some high quality videos. But no one has. So I'm just trying to get the information out there.
It's not always about the style or the design that attracts people. Here, it's all about information, on a tiny but strong community, on very little researched topic, which would only benefit everyone here, just because it IS existing. Appreciate your work, doc!
One would agree on that, but then again Perun thrives on the black and gold PowerPoint presentations for quite a while.
Fantastic Job!
I subbed immediately.
I feel like I found a treasure.
I hope you keep it up.
so fascinating, A+!