Is Putin irrational or did he just miscalculate? And Ukraine war’s most overlooked sector

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  • Опубликовано: 6 мар 2022
  • In episode 953 of #CutTheClutter, Shekhar Gupta looks at the Russia-Ukraine situation through Andrei Kozyrev and Major General Mick Ryan’s thorough insights. We look at Putin’s rationality, military preparedness and likelihood of a nuclear attack as he takes over Ukraine one city at a time.
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Комментарии • 786

  • @ThePrintIndia
    @ThePrintIndia  2 года назад +22

    Early access, exclusive content, special privileges - Discover the great benefits of being a Member of ThePrint’s RUclips channel. Take a Paid Membership today. It costs just Rs 159/month.
    ruclips.net/channel/UCuyRsHZILrU7ZDIAbGASHdAjoin

    • @faikhawrami
      @faikhawrami 2 года назад

      FROM IRAQ KURDISTAN

    • @KGF007
      @KGF007 2 года назад

      So the inference is as per your expert opinion, nuclear threat from our neighboring country Pakistan is simply a hoax, you are getting old Mr. Shekar Gupta, its time for you to retire😜

    • @doron3075
      @doron3075 2 года назад

      Love from Russia ❤️❤️

    • @richardv9648
      @richardv9648 2 года назад +1

      Putin is a libra. We libras only attack when provoked relentlessly. We don't miscalculate, we avenge.

    • @arynbbc
      @arynbbc 2 года назад

      THE REAL MEANING OF POTEMKIN VILLAGE ..NOTHING TO DO WITH BATTLESHIP POTEMKIN In politics and economics, a Potemkin village is any construction (literal or figurative) whose sole purpose is to provide an external façade to a country that is faring poorly, making people believe that the country is faring better. The term comes from stories of a fake portable village built by Grigory Potemkin, former lover of Empress Catherine II, solely to impress the Empress during her journey to Crimea in 1787.[1] While modern historians agree that accounts of this portable village are exaggerated, the original story was that Potemkin erected phony portable settlements along the banks of the Dnieper River in order to impress the Russian Empress; the structures would be disassembled after she passed, and re-assembled farther along her route to be viewed again as if another example

  • @amanshukla8758
    @amanshukla8758 2 года назад +176

    This war reminds me of the old African phrase - "When brothers fight to death, a stranger inherits their father's estates".
    In this war, the brothers are Russia and Ukraine, who are fighting to death, while the stranger is NATO and China, who, respectively, will benefit from Ukrainian immigrant capital flight and Russian economic dependence due to isolation

    • @cardenuovo
      @cardenuovo 2 года назад +8

      🎯

    • @GonzoTehGreat
      @GonzoTehGreat 2 года назад +22

      NATO is a military alliance not a country. It can't benefit from Ukrainian capital outflows. NATO members are also being adversely affected by their own economic sanctions, so they'll be economically worse off because of them.
      China may benefit from closer ties and more trade with Russia. Meanwhile, countries that trade a lot with both Russia and Ukraine will also suffer.
      There are no winners in this war, but a lot of losers.

    • @cb9461
      @cb9461 2 года назад +1

      Not NATO ... the self styles land of free Shri Unkil Sam .

    • @ojsimps701
      @ojsimps701 2 года назад +1

      True saying

    • @msdadsfsx
      @msdadsfsx 2 года назад +1

      Like India China fight

  • @suhasraj5807
    @suhasraj5807 2 года назад +66

    As a result of both Putin and west miscalculations, economically whole world is paying price for it

    • @viktorcalais3722
      @viktorcalais3722 2 года назад

      Moral of the story. Do not depend on Putin or the West. Depend on oneself.

    • @anshuraj4277
      @anshuraj4277 2 года назад

      Only Putin

    • @viktorcalais3722
      @viktorcalais3722 2 года назад

      @@anshuraj4277 can one clap with one hand?

    • @anshuraj4277
      @anshuraj4277 2 года назад

      @@viktorcalais3722
      Did Ukraine attack Russia?

    • @viktorcalais3722
      @viktorcalais3722 2 года назад

      @@anshuraj4277 follow the events since the breakup. You will get the answer.

  • @largeknockers7194
    @largeknockers7194 2 года назад +13

    Kyiv was a city when Moscow was nothing but a few houses. Yes the borders have changed over the years but if you want go with history then it should be part of Poland. Some of us have read books Putin and know you're wrong.

  • @AhaanM
    @AhaanM 2 года назад +150

    Great episode! On a side note, the term Potemkin comes from Grigory Poytemkin who set up fake villages which looked good during State visits under the Russian Empire. Kozyrev was probably referring to this original meaning, that is a military purely for show (parades etc) and not a real military, and not the ship.

    • @iammuscular4326
      @iammuscular4326 2 года назад +2

      Nice you know the details

    • @vinm300
      @vinm300 2 года назад +9

      Potemkin was a lover of Catherine the Great (d.1796)
      He supposedly established fake villages for her to view as she travelled south to Crimea.
      That is the meaning of the Potemkin reference, not the ship mutiny.(8:40)
      ie the Russian military is like a Potemkin village - just for show.

    • @vikrambhardwaj1
      @vikrambhardwaj1 2 года назад

      Superb

    • @laulaksiddique6160
      @laulaksiddique6160 2 года назад

      True

    • @gargi8812
      @gargi8812 2 года назад +1

      I was surprised that Gupta did not know the history behind the phrase ‘Potemkin’. Quite shocking.

  • @bhaskarganguly7
    @bhaskarganguly7 2 года назад +64

    When it comes to international affairs no one de clutters like our very own SG sir. Keep it up

    • @gobindsingh3027
      @gobindsingh3027 2 года назад

      Bullshit, he changes the narrative with change in time. Let say Russia wins he will say “ee to sala hona hi tha “. Very short sighted.

  • @saptarshi5414
    @saptarshi5414 2 года назад +7

    The term "Potemkin" comes from Grigory Potemkin, the statesman under Empress Catherine II (late 1780s) who built fake villages to impress her, not the 1905 mutiny on the ship.

  • @pothead7290
    @pothead7290 2 года назад +96

    I usually agree with SG but not this time. Naive would be an understatement if you actually believe Putin was not aware of his countries military abilities, he’s been involved in military and KGB all his life to think that he’s incapable of assessing the state of his own defence systems is laughable. I feel Russia rightly feels threatened by the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, and this is somewhat of a reaction as form of strategic self defence. You could argue that this is somewhat of an overreaction but be that as it may, I don’t think Putin will pull back till he’s been assured that NATO won’t be expanding east wards in Europe at the very least.

    • @varnit25
      @varnit25 2 года назад +17

      I also think Russia is intentionally going slow on the WAR to drive Oil prices go soo high that West gets on negotiation table with Ukraine and they can stop the WAR. Russia is barely using their airforce might in this WAR. They could have finished Ukraine in first 4-5 days if they fully used all their fighter jets.

    • @rohitkoolothabdulsalam4938
      @rohitkoolothabdulsalam4938 2 года назад +4

      There is an issue of bad informational channels in systems like his, so from his own previous statement, it could be that putin thinks, this is a test for his army, he is asessing their readiness for war, by fighting a fight he knows he can win, but the cost he takes makes his army ready for the future. He learns the moves of the West and their readiness, meanwhile getting his geoploitical objective of taking southern and eastern Ukraine.
      The Russian army will lean more from this offensive than anyone else

    • @abhyudaysarkar5012
      @abhyudaysarkar5012 2 года назад +9

      @@varnit25 I don't think so. If Russia intentionally went slow it would be even bigger tactical error. Every day ukraine stands , it gets more man and material to fight.

    • @AmrushPrence
      @AmrushPrence 2 года назад +8

      ​@@varnit25 Putin's goal is not to "Destroy or Finish" Ukraine, he intends to bring it back to the russian empire. He can't do that if he flattens the country and kills all 40million people in it.

    • @chendl9075
      @chendl9075 2 года назад +3

      Fully agree with you. The issue of Ukraine joining NATO has been the main reason and has been raised in all the meetings. US is for all intended purpose supplying arms to Ukraine to provoke Russia.

  • @crazydrifter13
    @crazydrifter13 2 года назад +110

    Most important question :
    Will Russia come to India's support or even remain neutral if it becomes so dependent on China after being cutoff from West?

    • @GirishKumar-jm5gi
      @GirishKumar-jm5gi 2 года назад +39

      Nope they won't!

    • @cedarcanyon1
      @cedarcanyon1 2 года назад +30

      Absolutely they won’t! Putin will throw india under the bus in a second

    • @jeffjacob4900
      @jeffjacob4900 2 года назад +19

      Russia will side with China. They share the same border and would want to maintain peace and stability. Secondly China is a super power and it wouldn’t be prudent to support the losing side.
      Here principles doesn’t matter. Take the case of India, India have not yet criticised Russia for the clear violation of international laws and causing such unnecessary humanitarian catastrophe.
      In my opinion India should have stood by Ukrainians. It is a shame that we are not guided by our principles and respect for international law. If Mahatma Gandhi was alive today, he would be very disappointed.

    • @pp_01123
      @pp_01123 2 года назад +11

      Russia can never come to India's support, at max they can stay neutral!

    • @jithinv8794
      @jithinv8794 2 года назад +9

      @@jeffjacob4900 so true... This is a war India is losing diplomatically which ever side we chose

  • @keshav4408
    @keshav4408 2 года назад +15

    If Ukraine is extention of Russia and a "Artifical country", then Pakistan and Bangladesh should not exist.
    Well Ukraine is real, sovereign country and they have right to what they want. Putin should stop obsessing over Ukriane and let live there life

    • @prakharsrivastava6644
      @prakharsrivastava6644 2 года назад +1

      Ok but it is the war to protect Russia boarder from NATO influence.
      Will US allow if Russia puts their nuke on Cuba?

    • @sekki327
      @sekki327 2 года назад

      yes let them live, they were in peace anyway right? they werent genociding their own people?

  • @brijeshthakrar2106
    @brijeshthakrar2106 2 года назад +69

    Hello Shekhar sir,
    A small doubt here
    That if Russia's military equipments are not ready to fight for their own country
    Then why India is buying most of its defence system from russia ?
    And does this war puts a big question mark on Russia's defence industries?

    • @lionelmascarenhas1586
      @lionelmascarenhas1586 2 года назад +21

      Because it’s cheap. Quantity over Qaulity

    • @Dokja0
      @Dokja0 2 года назад +13

      This war has been a logistical failure.

    • @TheRonoTV2024
      @TheRonoTV2024 2 года назад +30

      Russia military tech and strategies are fine.
      Running over the Ukranian military which numbers 350k is not easy.

    • @brijeshthakrar2106
      @brijeshthakrar2106 2 года назад +7

      @@Dokja0 no i meant that shekar explained that tanks and aircrafts were not technological equipped and were not as high tech as Russians displayed

    • @immortalwarrior2695
      @immortalwarrior2695 2 года назад +9

      @@TheRonoTV2024 by the looks of it, Russia suffered heavily. And foreign legion forces made by Zelensky is now coming too. South Korea, Japan, US, Europe, Africa and even some verterans in middle east conflict like Iraq army people who fought ISIS is coming to help Ukraine. Putin has made a grave error. Even if he conquers the country, the slow grinding of gurrelia warfare will eat Russia. This will happen sooner than later

  • @PradeepSNair
    @PradeepSNair 2 года назад +9

    Going by the headline, I was skeptical if this would be a perspective than a "cut the clutter". In the end though happy with the excellent insights. Thank you Shekharji and team!

  • @agudam
    @agudam 2 года назад +53

    The narrative that he miscalculated is being peddled by everyone without much evidence. Did anyone get hold of Russian classified information about the exact schedule of the progression?

    • @zema2071
      @zema2071 2 года назад

      Evidence? By amount of military arsenal ammased before and after the invasion, that's 60 Kms of military hardware added later on was enough for even a dumb doorknob such as yourself to suffice as evidence enough that it was going to be quick and one side war of about 3-4 days and yet here we are about 2 weeks into the Invasion. Its just you cannot digest that Russia the ones supplying same weapons to India is not succeeding as you want to. Go fcuk yourself.

    • @sickrantorum693
      @sickrantorum693 2 года назад

      If this was his plan then he's unfit to be president of his country. The Russians are getting nowhere and every day Russia inches closer to bankruptcy.

  • @vj12343
    @vj12343 2 года назад +17

    Probably the best video that debates this important question. Thank you ThePrint! More people should see this and stop fear mongering about a nuclear war.

    • @amritpalsingh3293
      @amritpalsingh3293 2 года назад

      Actually the Naval Chief, the germany Naval chief when he came here said that Russia wants respect and all that they will not invade Ukraine.
      We cant say what is in the mind.
      Many of the reactions of the west and knee jerk, but also shows their power. They would never have removed American or British sports teams had they been in war.
      If NATO actively gets involved, nuclear war is a possibility.

    • @vj12343
      @vj12343 2 года назад

      @@amritpalsingh3293 I don’t see NATO getting involved just because of the fact that it can escalate. But if they’re confident enough Putin won’t use nukes and/or know they can weaken him before he does that, they could. It never stopped NATO from going to Libya, because Libya wasn’t a nuclear threat.

    • @mnd3607
      @mnd3607 2 года назад +1

      @@vj12343 may be there is more than nuclear threat...NATO might have assessed that Russia has capacity to attack and win initially but lack the numbers to conquer the entire country and comprehensively win over ukraine land forces..also the initial attack would have given the opportunity for the west to launch information warfare and demean Russia.. usa got the best chance to arm ukraine land forces and take revenge on what Russia did to US army in Afghanistan and Syria.. I feel west waited purposely for the Russia to bomb Ukrainian cities,
      1. As this would increase the resentment towards Russia, push Ukrainians further towards EU
      2. force Russia in to long term urban war in ukraine
      3. Mount Huge economical and military loses on Russia with ukraine as collateral damage
      The NATO must have read putin's bluff perfectly..

    • @vj12343
      @vj12343 2 года назад +1

      @@mnd3607 very interesting points. I’m fairly certain the effects of this war will linger for a long time even if there’s a ceasefire tomorrow. China however has Russia’s back (to a certain extent) and the Us can’t impose sanctions on the whole world. So at some point, sanctions will be ignored or bypassed. Or smaller countries would protest the Russian sanctions as it’ll hurt the world economy that is already suffering because of the pandemic. US itself hasn’t had much luck is trying to get oil from other middle eastern countries. While I’m really interested to see how the short term economic isolation of Russia will influence Putin’s actions, I’m equally interested to see how long the Us thinks it can control the outcome of this to be in its favor.

    • @amritpalsingh3293
      @amritpalsingh3293 2 года назад

      @@vj12343 Related to sanctions. Many countries are closely watching. SWIFT, UN and even sports bodies are under the control of the West(which I jokingly say America and its puppet regimes of Western Europe).
      They can anytime ban any country from SWIFT, VISA, Mastercard suspend services and the like.
      World is showing disproportionate reaction to this war vis-a-vis West led wars. This also shows the international narrative is also set by America and friends.
      this war, if Russia can succeed militarily and economically, would be an epoch of the downfall of the Super power status of West and the offical start of multi polar world. India, among other countries would think that tommorow sanctions can come to them too, so preparations have to be made to make ourselves sancion proof. In a multi polar world there must and would exist many other system(for example besides SWIFT), more banks besides World Bank and IMF(again controlled by US and cronies).
      whateva, one thing West has proved. By Banning Art and sports through arm twisting Olympic and other sports association(which must be politcially neutral), they have shown that they are against Russian people.

  • @commonsense8779
    @commonsense8779 2 года назад +14

    I would suggest to take some speaking points from Russian analysts and their point of view as well. Completely relying on the western analysts and western generals with obvious bias may not give a good view of the fighting on the ground. The print needs to look further than some twitter posts.

    • @SamudraRoychowdhury
      @SamudraRoychowdhury 2 года назад +3

      ThePrint is not unbiased as they claim. They are 100% pro-America. I have followed this channel for a long time. They put their bets on both sides of Indian politics. That is also not called being unbiased. But, nonetheless, some episodes that are not typical political analysis are quite informative.

    • @zema2071
      @zema2071 2 года назад

      News flash..according to Russian analyst and experts. They already won and are on their way to spank a spineless country India.

  • @afshinfov4846
    @afshinfov4846 2 года назад +5

    Absolutely loved your journalism. Well done interpretation.

  • @vinnyt3866
    @vinnyt3866 2 года назад +11

    Most practical outcome here is 1. Russia withdraws troops 2. Ukraine agrees to not host NATO and its missiles 3. West helps Ukraine rebuild and economy. The problem is both getting carried away into major escalation.

    • @GonzoTehGreat
      @GonzoTehGreat 2 года назад +5

      The problem is that in addition to a written guarantee that Ukraine will remain neutral and not join NATO, Putin also wants Ukraine to recognize Crimea as belonging to Russia and both the separatist republics as independent.

    • @sekki327
      @sekki327 2 года назад

      you dont retreat from war when you basicly won it, they have complete control of the air and if it werent for the civilians kiev would be flattened by now

    • @GonzoTehGreat
      @GonzoTehGreat 2 года назад

      @@sekki327 _"you dont retreat from war when you basicly won it"_
      I think it's too early yet to call it a Russian victory.
      _"they have complete control of the air"_
      Which is a crucial first step in any successful invasion, but not the decisive one.
      _" if it werent for the civilians kiev would be flattened by now"_
      Kyiv is their capital city with a population of ~3million, so there will always be civilians present. Indeed, there wouldn't be any point in attacking it, otherwise. Putin knows it's a civilian target, but he hopes to eliminate the government and demoralize the country by "clipping the wings of the Ukrainian Nightingale".

    • @sekki327
      @sekki327 2 года назад

      @@GonzoTehGreat i meant more of a win from a military pov, russia could starve kiev to death at this point effortlessly

    • @GonzoTehGreat
      @GonzoTehGreat 2 года назад +3

      @@sekki327 _"russia could starve kiev to death at this point effortlessly"_
      They can certainly try, but Kyiv probably has enough food supplies to last several weeks as they were expecting an invasion.
      Also, don't forget that taking the city is only half the battle for Russia (assuming they intend to keep it), because resistance to their occupation could still continue.

  • @perspective500
    @perspective500 2 года назад +15

    Ballistics and propulsion tech is getting overshadowed by drones and electronics

    • @amitkp6957
      @amitkp6957 2 года назад +3

      Turkish TB2 Bayraktar has not been very successful in Ukr due Russian jamming and SAMs. I doubt the artillery clip shown in this video had destruction by done by TB2. It must have been a MLRS attack once coordinates of artillery positions were gained, most probably given by Pentagon real time inputs to Ukr Army.

    • @shouryasanjeev9284
      @shouryasanjeev9284 2 года назад +4

      Drones were completely useless in this conflict cause they can't be used till you have air superiority.
      And what electronics do you speak of?
      Ukraine doesn't have EW assets let alone offensive EW capability...

  • @vj12343
    @vj12343 2 года назад +37

    This is one of the biggest questions which keeps the world guessing his end game. The information control around the world has enabled the mystery.

  • @kallachi729
    @kallachi729 2 года назад +7

    Excellent presentation. Neat and on the rocks.
    Tailpiece: I hope the mainstream media is watching.

  • @anonymous0037
    @anonymous0037 2 года назад +11

    Putin is a statesman.
    I see that 64 miles long convoy as a decoy, aim of russia is to connect donbass to the transnistia region and to make entire coridoor acc to my perception.

  • @rahulrai4287
    @rahulrai4287 2 года назад +16

    Australia hadn't fought a major war for decades but for sekhar ji Australian officer's view are important.
    leftist woke media Washington Post is important. Pentagon is important which cannot differentiate between water drums and explosive containers . You can do better than this sir

    • @rext8949
      @rext8949 2 года назад

      You don't need to fight a war to be able to analyse it. You can learn from others mistakes and experiences. You can choose your own information sources as per your convenience, maybe Trumpian Fox delusions.

    • @abhyudaysarkar5012
      @abhyudaysarkar5012 2 года назад

      Russia for that matter also hasn't fought a real war in a very long time. No country has since 1945.

  • @MaheshPatel-nk9fg
    @MaheshPatel-nk9fg 2 года назад +1

    You make it easy to understand this tragic war .

  • @arkatalukdar4472
    @arkatalukdar4472 2 года назад +20

    Southern Ukraine and Crimea is much drier and sees a lot less rain. This means the infamous rasputitsa is greatly reduced and Russian vehicles can get off road. While in the North and East they are forced to stick to the highways and cause long columns of traffic jams.
    This is the cause of relative Russian success in the South, not better leadership.

  • @louisgiokas2206
    @louisgiokas2206 2 года назад +3

    The Potemkin analogy also refers to the Potemkin Village, which was a sham village set up to show how well the country was doing. It is the same thing, I think.

  • @SBALAK9753
    @SBALAK9753 2 года назад

    Thanks Shekar for bringing info normally we do not get. This video is very informative.

  • @karthikeyanv463
    @karthikeyanv463 2 года назад

    Excellent one from Mr. Sekhar. Its a pity that we can only one like to such videos.

  • @WhatsUpBiyach
    @WhatsUpBiyach 2 года назад +14

    I would never trust a single word from aa guy who worked as a Foreign minister for Russia only to retire in a country who is an archrival to Russia. I bet he is corrupt, sold some of the country secrets and got his own cut from Cyprus in graft. Its like S.Jaishankar settling down in Pakistan's Lahore 🤣and criticizing Delhi.

  • @SimplifyAstrology
    @SimplifyAstrology 2 года назад +16

    Shekhar, Putin was a KGB Head, thinking Puting is lost or not thinking is a big misunderstanding. Putin has calculated well and long enough, if you see the movement of the Russian forces through last 12 days, its a well thought war plan. Slow, Unpredictable yet Certain that seems to be the strategy! Putin will not stop unless there is a leadership change in Ukraine and NATO has been stopped!

  • @kgmuthukumar8122
    @kgmuthukumar8122 2 года назад +7

    I think these kind of headlines " Is Putin Irrational?" is classic media "Sensationalism" and mostly used by "Commando TV Channels (your words)" for TRP purposes. Mr. SG, distracts from your usual sober and good analysis. I am disappointed!

    • @daddydeadpool9871
      @daddydeadpool9871 2 года назад +3

      Agreed , relying on the info of an ex foreign minister in Miami is ridiculous .

    • @aldrineabisheck5426
      @aldrineabisheck5426 2 года назад

      Don't turn away just be seeing the headline bro. Watch the full video. He explain how rational putin is.

  • @akhileshmachiraju1521
    @akhileshmachiraju1521 2 года назад +9

    British used the tactic of infighting between two kingdoms to smoother their rule in India. Now, America is doing the same thing.

    • @millevenon5853
      @millevenon5853 2 года назад +2

      War and occupation of Ukraine will cripple the tiny Russian economy enabling America to focus on China

  • @michaelivey4904
    @michaelivey4904 2 года назад +1

    SG, you misunderstood Kozyrev’s “Potemkin military” analogy, based on the common ( US/UK) phrase “Potemkin village”, which is in turn based on a likely apocryphal fable of Catherine the Great and her minister Grigory Potemkin.

  • @mmazourov
    @mmazourov 2 года назад

    Excellent analysis, thank you.

  • @shadabqureshi6283
    @shadabqureshi6283 2 года назад

    " Uncertainty is the Only certain thing"--- Confucius.
    Nice SG.

  • @Rubylove48
    @Rubylove48 2 года назад

    Appreciate your analysis and strategic crib notes.

  • @Drganguli
    @Drganguli 2 года назад

    Please discuss the impact of these events on the future of globalisation and the global economy

  • @shubhamoswal666
    @shubhamoswal666 2 года назад +1

    What a knowledge the man has got! Just wow 🔥

  • @NewYork0110J
    @NewYork0110J 2 года назад +2

    I think Russia started talking about Nuclear because their military was a sitting duck at the borders which can easily be exploited and killed and had no chance. 60 KM straight road no way to go. In order to save them he has to use NUCLEAR THREAT to ensure they don't die before fighting even.

  • @neerajsingh-xf3rp
    @neerajsingh-xf3rp 2 года назад +1

    My first impression of Russia was when saw tanks on their parliament during boris yelstin

  • @MrSabinchaulagain
    @MrSabinchaulagain 2 года назад

    the Potemkin analogy is not about the ship Potemkin but refers to 'Potemkin village' reference by Grigory Potemkin during Catherine the great's reign

  • @jayaziz3785
    @jayaziz3785 2 года назад +26

    Very hypothetical issue. NATOs continous expansion Westwards raising valid concerns for Russia. Putin raise those concerns with U.S and NATO but was spurned with harsher threats. Then Vallensky hinted aiming for nuclear capability. The current Ukrain which is a component of hardliners ultra nationalists was installed Through a bloody coup by U.S and NATO. Putins move was rational and valid given the west's suspicious behavior. The miss calculation was of Ukranian Presidents aspiration for NATO membership. Neutrality would have saved the war,loss of lives,displacement and creating instability in that region.

    • @Valkyri3Z
      @Valkyri3Z 2 года назад +4

      Who said its a valid concern ? Is Russia a democratic country that respects its neighbors and borders ? Nope. Then those who should have any concern are all bordering countries around Russia. There is no NATO in Geogia , Moldova or Ukraine and yet Russia continues to invade them. Hence Russia's so called concern is invalid and misplaced. A militarized country with a dictatorship is a threat .

    • @badbadbadcat
      @badbadbadcat 2 года назад +4

      No use explaining this is to the people blindly following western medias. These people still counts BBC and CNN as legitimate source of news and history

    • @AmrushPrence
      @AmrushPrence 2 года назад +6

      That doesn't justify invasion. Ukraine is an independent nation and it's not it's responsibility to only do things that don't upset Russia. Sri Lanka and Pakistan have been moving closer economically and militarily to China, who is an adversary to India. That doesn't give India the right to invade Srilanka saying India is upset with Srilanka's ties to China. This is not 1750.

    • @AmrushPrence
      @AmrushPrence 2 года назад +2

      ​@paper plane Well NATO or Poland didn't invade Belarus because it's a pro russian dictatorship. You cannot equate military alliances with letteral war and invasion. So if that's the standard we are setting, any country can justify war and invasion if the other nation does anything that upsets that country.
      If your wife is cheating on you with her boyfriend to take your money through divorce, that doesn't give you the right to murder your wife.

    • @badbadbadcat
      @badbadbadcat 2 года назад +2

      @@AmrushPrence did you forget that India attacked East Pakistan to create Bangladesh out of it?

  • @johnkane345
    @johnkane345 2 года назад

    Wonderfully explained. Thanks.

  • @amanshukla8758
    @amanshukla8758 2 года назад +5

    Whenever there are conflicts like these, I follow a few independent/freelance Western journalists and bloggers who track these conflicts with utmost accuracy and with little bias or propaganda that mainstream media suffers from.
    One of these bloggers correctly predicted the quick fall of Afghan govt even before US withdrawal. He is tracking this conflict as well, and he isn't very optimistic about the shelf-life of Ukrainian govt. He already quoted a US intelligence source claiming that US govt is preparing for a Ukrainian govt in exile and insurgency, indicating that US intelligence believes that Ukrainian govt will fall sooner or later

    • @rishikeshp.5610
      @rishikeshp.5610 2 года назад

      Who is this journo?

    • @Sam-iv9jc
      @Sam-iv9jc 2 года назад +1

      It's true..dre z no way to even think that kyiv won't fall except for ppl who live in fairy tales.. Kyiv would fall.. Gorilla warfare can be damaging.. But really.. Ukrainians are not as hungry as afghans to keep dying in Dre land for decades for bits of money...

  • @sreekumarpai6665
    @sreekumarpai6665 2 года назад

    Congrats.for your explanation.

  • @belloali3173
    @belloali3173 2 года назад +10

    Of course Russia is a weaker power in this equation but you see nothing weak about a body collection of 30 nations against a single country. Do you expect Russia to win conventionally?

    • @Sun-zr2ep
      @Sun-zr2ep 2 года назад +1

      You want ww3? You want to be bomb? You want more destruction? Stupid!

    • @sridharprasanth8833
      @sridharprasanth8833 2 года назад +1

      What are 30 countries going to do against 6000+nuclear warheads

    • @alchemist7412
      @alchemist7412 2 года назад

      @@sridharprasanth8833 The 30 countries also include 3 countries with 6000 nuclear warheads.

    • @sridharprasanth8833
      @sridharprasanth8833 2 года назад

      @@alchemist7412 Russia has more warheads than all of NATO

    • @alchemist7412
      @alchemist7412 2 года назад

      @@sridharprasanth8833 It doesn't matter because NATO has enough warheads to destroy all of Russia. You don't need to nuke a place 7 times.

  • @kalilbm
    @kalilbm 2 года назад

    Thanks!

  • @keshav4408
    @keshav4408 2 года назад +1

    Hello SG sir, with respect to Pakistan threatening nuclear bomb.. there was no war 1991..where you referring to 2001 Parliament attack and not any incident in 1991..
    Correct me if i was wrong

  • @Anand698
    @Anand698 2 года назад

    As always I am a fan of "cut the clutter" with the clarity shown with numbers and sources. Can we have a cut the clutter with a topic of the possible ways to end this war?

  • @advaitV25
    @advaitV25 2 года назад +1

    The thumbnail was great

  • @muslimabubakar9384
    @muslimabubakar9384 2 года назад +2

    Don’t forget he was former KGB boss. Making deliberate mistake to confuse outsiders is KGB’s biggest asset!

  • @sanchayanroychoudhury3315
    @sanchayanroychoudhury3315 2 года назад +9

    9:00, 'Potemkin' is a reference to a Potemkin village, meaning a false or deceptive appearance.
    The story goes that a Russian statesman, called Potemkin, had setup fake portable villages carried along the route of Queen Catherine of Russia, along the Dnieper river, to give a false impression of prosperity.

  • @ajitshukla6558
    @ajitshukla6558 2 года назад +10

    I believe that Russia has opted for a conventional war anticipating escalation from NATO or US. Saving the other arms in case war escalates further.

  • @user-vo8lm4le9o
    @user-vo8lm4le9o 2 года назад +1

    I think he very well knows what he's doing. All these sanctions, he must have seen these coming and would have prepared enough.

  • @kunalghosh4211
    @kunalghosh4211 2 года назад

    Excellent episode 👏👏👏👏👏

  • @poras1513
    @poras1513 2 года назад +1

    Nicely Explained...!😊

  • @joyarjun1
    @joyarjun1 2 года назад

    Mr. Gupta, 2 corrections: 1. the USSR collapsed end 1991, not earlier! 2. Potemkin, as used by Kozyrev, here means deceptively reassuring appearance, not the 1905 mutiny by the ship of that name.

  • @subodhghorpade
    @subodhghorpade 2 года назад

    Thanks

  • @Friedfoodie
    @Friedfoodie 2 года назад

    Superb analysis.

  • @HarshadContractor
    @HarshadContractor 2 года назад +20

    A truly exceptional analysis compared to all these News Channels. Not one has even done so much analysis as well as you Sir Shekar Ji. Salute

    • @thegracienetwork7847
      @thegracienetwork7847 2 года назад +2

      Im an American who lived in India for a few years and still follow events there. I discovered Shekhar during covid crisis. What a remarkable journalist! Wish he could be a guest on US news channels. We would learn alot

    • @ahrazathar
      @ahrazathar 2 года назад

      ruclips.net/video/UaZ1MZeLyeo/видео.html
      Watch this..

  • @christopheradodo4718
    @christopheradodo4718 2 года назад +30

    I respect your opinion, but I don’t agree with your analysis, mostly when you labeled Putin as irrational minded individual based on your caption. Also, miscalculation can only happen if you don’t have an end game and how to go about it.
    Secondly, the man you sighted in your analysis lives in America and he has been criticizing Russia for many years. Because he is more loyal to America than Russia.
    Thirdly, you seems to downplayed the genuineness of Russia security concerns and NATO expansion eastward.
    And if Russia was to play out the same geopolitical scenarios within America borders, America may have done the same thing as Russia. And the Cuban crisis is a case of reference.
    Therefore, stop disrespecting Putin and the Russia people.

    • @Valkyri3Z
      @Valkyri3Z 2 года назад +1

      Russia needs to become a proper functioning democratic country before being taken seriously about any issue. NATO is a alliance of democratic countries who can have basic free election unlike Russia. In reality countries with border with Russia should have greater security threat from Russia than the other way. Hence NATO will not stop.

    • @vasihussein8228
      @vasihussein8228 2 года назад

      Putin actually miscalculated. He was close to Germany & France. He never knew they they would betray him & go to all extent to eliminate him. Second mistake he did was he went soft on Ukraine in initial days as he considered them to be Russians & half Russians. He lost the most important initial progress & NATO forces took full advantage of that situation & armed Ukranian. In war there is no place for pitying. Another mistake he made was he made no allies. He should have worked on it from 2014 & he wouldn't have been isolated.

    • @rext8949
      @rext8949 2 года назад +2

      Russian people ? Aren't they demonstrating against this psycho who has refused free and fair elections. The guy is just a brutal dictator. Maybe you've forgotten Hitler.

    • @kushal4956
      @kushal4956 2 года назад

      did you watch the video? he got to the conclusion that Putin is not irrational and why the hell should he respect Putin?

    • @gaurav5997
      @gaurav5997 2 года назад

      Hahaa You are a joker just like those millions of sheep who follow others blindly without logic. Russian economy will collapse after this war. Putin has not only killed thousands of innocent people and displaced millions from their hone country but has also pressed the self destruct button for himself and his country.

  • @zaraf.ahmad7865
    @zaraf.ahmad7865 2 года назад

    As usual great analysis by Shekhar Gupta

  • @lindachamuel5098
    @lindachamuel5098 2 года назад +1

    When he was younger he was fired from the Andropov's institute of spies because he was unable to evaluate the consequences of his actions!

  • @shivrajjuvekar
    @shivrajjuvekar 2 года назад

    This information is wonderful ❤️

  • @adityasharma2k
    @adityasharma2k 2 года назад

    Gupta ji 🙏

  • @poras1513
    @poras1513 2 года назад +1

    Very nice👏👏

  • @yeshemant
    @yeshemant 2 года назад +2

    If I am not a millennial, yet Anderi kozyrev's doesn't ring a bell, them who am I :)

  • @abhrendushekharchowdhury403
    @abhrendushekharchowdhury403 2 года назад

    Beautiful Analysis thnx ~~~

  • @kostymaleyev8941
    @kostymaleyev8941 2 года назад

    FYI, Potemkin - refers to "Potemkin villages", not the ship

  • @hindolbhattacharya9715
    @hindolbhattacharya9715 2 года назад +2

    One thing that Putin didn't miscalculate is that Ukraine will have to fight the war all alone. Everyone else will just cheer from the sidelines.

    • @vasihussein8228
      @vasihussein8228 2 года назад

      You're mistaken. US & allies have already deployed several persons from black water in Ukraine in guise of citizen. Now they have sent approximately 1 lakh militias in the guise of foreign fighters. They are providing latest arms & ammunition. Turkey is providing them his drones. Australia has just announced they would give Ukraine anti aircraft & other missiles worth 50 million. Poland is providing them with fighter jets (the talks are in process). What else do you need to win this war.

  • @jayaramprabhu5595
    @jayaramprabhu5595 2 года назад +1

    Very good analysis of the war situation. If Russian capture Odessa, then war situation will change dramatically.

  • @siddharth7able
    @siddharth7able 2 года назад

    Very Good Analysis!

  • @i-etranger
    @i-etranger 2 года назад

    Thank you for analysis. However, a small correction - Potemkin military is not a reference to the ship. It is to the character the ship is named after. The guys was building facades for villages the empress Ekaterina the great was passing to create an impression on her.

    • @i-etranger
      @i-etranger 2 года назад

      A curious fact, Potemkin is the guy who founded all those cities mentioned in the video: Kherson, Dnipro, Mikolayev, also Sevastopol. Ekaterina the Great also founded Odessa. This is one of the reasons why Putin is so upset with them ended up in UA jurisdiction.

    • @nitd955
      @nitd955 2 года назад

      @@i-etranger Thanks!!!!

  • @cm-to6oi
    @cm-to6oi 2 года назад

    Excellent explanation.

  • @rajss8299
    @rajss8299 2 года назад +5

    I am not sure whether it just me but I the last few episodes , sekhar Gupta seems to be biased against Russia . What we really expect from print is unbiased journalism- ie not taking anyone’s side .
    War is the worst thing for sure but how did we reach here - probably this video answers it m.ruclips.net/video/8X7Ng75e5gQ/видео.html. Fairly lengthy one but very informative .

  • @Charvak-Atheist
    @Charvak-Atheist 2 года назад

    Mujhe laga ki aaj ka Cut the Clutter, Exit Poll par ho ga.

  • @Leezeo
    @Leezeo 2 года назад

    Love it sir.
    Informative.

  • @zakmar9327
    @zakmar9327 2 года назад +4

    I hope u will do analysis of Indian leaders too than just paining Putin in negative way

  • @ven41618
    @ven41618 2 года назад

    I may not agree with Shekhar always but I love his musings. He is very clear and coherent in the midst of all shouting-channels cacophony everywhere.

  • @arkatalukdar4472
    @arkatalukdar4472 2 года назад +1

    North Korea also threatens to use nuclear weapons every week.

  • @humanitypeace1
    @humanitypeace1 2 года назад

    Great analysis

  • @ibinfo-tube5063
    @ibinfo-tube5063 2 года назад +3

    📣Kyiv used many drones strikes against Russians but I'm wondering being a super power Russia didn't make much use of their drones capabilities at any occasion while sending lengthy columns of tanks and vehicles and opponents hitting them like a sitting ducks 🤔

    • @VasReds
      @VasReds 2 года назад

      Most of Russian arms used isn't state of the art. They have managed their resources well. Btw, this is by far the fastest invasion in history.

    • @sickrantorum693
      @sickrantorum693 2 года назад

      @@VasReds No it's not. What a ridiculous claim.

  • @Rohan-bopejha72hur
    @Rohan-bopejha72hur 2 года назад

    Pahle sochata tha ab yakin ho gya ..aap ho bde wale

  • @SGMukherji
    @SGMukherji 2 года назад +1

    You should be grateful I didn't sensor this video.

  • @kevin_1230
    @kevin_1230 2 года назад +1

    Irrational people often miscalculate.

  • @jim409
    @jim409 2 года назад

    Nice episode..

  • @Jigds
    @Jigds 2 года назад +1

    Loving your coverage of recent geopolitical situation. Thanks ☺️

  • @metome6035
    @metome6035 2 года назад

    I think it’s time to do a serious assessment of whether or not Russia’s supplied Arms and missiles would actually work or not

  • @rahulbasak
    @rahulbasak 2 года назад +1

    The Russian Army is famous for taking casualties and still grinding on. In fact, it is one of the few armies in the world that is capable of taking heavy casualties and still fighting on. Napoleon saw it at Borodino, Hitler saw it at Stalingrad, Aslan Maskhadov saw it in Grozny, and Zelensky is seeing it in Ukraine. Do not write off the Russian Army for their casualties. They make initial mistakes but once they have momentum on their side, they become a steamroller.

  • @thewarrior4071
    @thewarrior4071 2 года назад +2

    12:11 paakram /parliament attck happened in 2001 & not in 1991 as u mention. .

    • @psixpointer
      @psixpointer 2 года назад

      What war happened in 1991? Really confused me.

    • @psixpointer
      @psixpointer 2 года назад

      @Jaydan Gill but that wasn't a war. I think shekhar gupta mentioned there was a war in 1991 when Pakistan threatened to use nukes.

  • @thebongtwister
    @thebongtwister 2 года назад +1

    When Putin creates an account, the terms and conditions agrees with him 👀👀👀

  • @zaiemgulzar4781
    @zaiemgulzar4781 2 года назад

    Has no one ever noticed that the intro tune to this show is reminiscent of another intro tune. If you know, you know. 🤞

  • @balramcheruparambil4644
    @balramcheruparambil4644 2 года назад

    I believe Potemkin is a reference to Potemkin Villages ( Ref Catherine the Great)

  • @ravikulkarni1690
    @ravikulkarni1690 2 года назад

    Proud of you sir

  • @princemishra414
    @princemishra414 2 года назад

    Shekar sir respect 👍

  • @BharatThatIsIndia
    @BharatThatIsIndia 2 года назад +1

    The Print has made Putin look like a cartoon in thumbnail. 😂
    Be watchful Shekhar Gupta ji, He might be watching you. 😉

  • @appujosephjose6129
    @appujosephjose6129 2 года назад

    Good analysis

  • @anarchicdrifter
    @anarchicdrifter 2 года назад

    "nuclear threat (blackmail, as SG calls it) is not to be taken seriously"
    .... seriously ?....in that case, doesn't it defeat the purpose of giving one ? .... and in that case forcing someone into a corner or rather forcing his hand (nuclear)
    not everyone makes empty threats.... though he/she would rather not have to do it.

  • @arjunps6776
    @arjunps6776 2 года назад +2

    So Russian military hardware is of poor quality. And >60% of Indian military equipment is Russian. What conclusions can we draw from that? 🤔

    • @katana_3558
      @katana_3558 2 года назад

      We usually won't use them so its okay

  • @surendrabarsode8959
    @surendrabarsode8959 2 года назад +5

    Excellent presentation by Shekhar! Informative and crisp. Please keep it up.
    Anyway, once all Indian students are out of Ukraine, we shall focus on what is actually happening on the battlefields!! But it looks that Russia is going to get bogged down in Ukraine for a long time. If NATO help Ukraine with intelligence, strategy formulation, arms etc., it will bring lots of difficulties to Russian forces. In the end, USA would have achieved its purpose of at least weakening Putin, if not eliminating him. Whatever progress made under Putin in the last 20 years will wiped out in next 1 year. And that will make Russia a client state of China and China will become the de facto Number 1 power in the world.
    Or will India benefit by Russia getting more closely aligned with us?

  • @adurpandya2742
    @adurpandya2742 2 года назад +1

    As always, everyone ignores Aleksandr Dugin. Calling people Nazis is part of his strategy.