How to STOP a nuclear war with Putin
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- Опубликовано: 3 июн 2024
- Putin's brutal invasion of Ukraine is part of a bigger pattern of escalation, and this includes escalation of global nuclear risk.
In our previous video on nuclear war, we looked behind the walls of the Kremlin and inside Putin's mind to assess two kinds of risk. First, a delimited tactical nuclear strike. Second, global nuclear war.
The REAL reason Putin might start a nuclear war
• The REAL reason Putin ...
Other videos in this series:
How a Kremlin coup could topple Putin
• Why Hasn't Putin Been ...
• The TERRIFYING TRUTH b...
The TERRIFYING TRUTH behind Putin's Ukraine invasion
The REAL Reason Putin is invading Ukraine
• The REAL Reason Putin ...
00:00 Putin's nuclear threat beyond Ukraine war
00:51 History vs present day nuclear risk
02:48 Putin's resentment of the West
04:07 Step 1
05:27 Step 2
09:10 Step 3
Yulia Latynina interview with Michael McFaul -
• Юлия Латынина / Позици...
Dmitri Muratov interview with Katerina Gordeeva
• Дмитрий Муратов: «Здор...
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#vladvexlershow offers a guide to surviving the 21st century. Surviving it politically, culturally, aesthetically, and coming away with a vision of the world that is at once truthful but also hopeful.
Vlad Vexler is a philosopher, musicologist & arts consultant. He is slowly writing a book on Isaiah Berlin. Born in Russia in 1981, his home has been Israel, Australia, Tonga and now London. Since 2003 he has lived with the neuro immune condition ME. For several years he was unable to walk or talk or read. His PhD research focused on political liberty.
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You are right, rejecting or pre-committing to not nuking back is insane.
It really is!!!
A nuclear war would be insane, there is no sensible response to a nuclear attack on a NATO target but I agree, you cannot just let it go and use more sanctions against Russia.
The best way to deal with Putin (imo) would be to persuade China and India to side with the rest of the World and then Russia would be literally surrounded by opposition, he could not ignore that !
We need to call his bluff; but it is a high-risk strategy, but not acting is even higher.
@@charlesrae3793 He's not bluffing !
He knows the West does not want all out war with Russia which is exactly why he is so likely to strike first !
@@JudeMalachi Putin has already stated that a world without the USSR is not worth living in for him, in other words if it looks like they are losing, he is prepared to destroy the world !
He loves the power that gives him, he knows there is nobody in the West that is going to take him on head to head, he feels he can do whatever he wants now that he has stated his intent. He is holding the world hostage with his finger on the nuclear button and watching the World quiver just waiting for an excuse !
When I was in secondary school, in the late 1950s, I got a book out of the local library.
It was entitled “Game Theory. I thought it was about strategies for board games..
However, it was by Von Neumann and Morgenstern and it was about international political strategies, particularly those of the Cold War.
One example that stuck in my mind was that it can be effective for your opponent to think you might be a little insane - and hence willing to push the nuclear button.
Your last line there, I had no idea that was game theory. I used it once to keep myself from getting mugged or raped one time (act like a crazy person who might try to kill the would-be mugger, and yes they ran away). Trump also did that a lot, but he might have actually been crazy.
@@pyrovania Keep 'em guessing.
I think the US used it when Nixon was president
@@pyrovania I have been doing the same even when I drive and I want the car behind to keep a safer distance.
An old friend of Putin actually said in an interview that the crazy man-trick was well known among the street kids.
McFaul should have declined answering the question by saying
it was imprudent to offer a response.
What he said was idiotic and gives Putin the green light to use a tactical nuclear strike.
Indeed, offering an answere is almost a signal that your NOT actually in the loop on the decision making. I'm sure the Biden administration has communicated it's actual policy to Russia without reliance on the offhand comments of this one guy.
Maybe the thing to do in response would be to fly heavy conventional bombers over Moscow and St Petersburg, take the losses, drop the terror and give the message. Hot brinkmanship.
I generally think pretty highly of Michael Macfaul but that was absolutely disgraceful. If Putin took his word for it, he would have effectively signed the death certificate for hundreds of thousands of people. Threatening Russia with more sanctions at this point is about as effective trying to drown a fish. I think we have seen enough of what happens when we tell Putin what we're not willing to do.
@@mtn1793 A squadron of conventional heavy bombers would never have made it into Moscow even in the 1960s. A single B-2 flying below radar altitude with the exact coordinates to Putin's bedroom on the other hand would do the trick and put an end all this nuclear war nonsense. So long as nothing else got hit, I doubt the Russians would be all that upset about it.
@@lgmx-peacekeeper3204 Dronesmanship
I have subscribed lately to your channel and I have been really impressed about your capacity to clearly decipher the dynamic of Putin’s inner circle. This video is yet another good analysis of this crisis. Thank you very much.
Michel thank you for your kind remark!
Agree! I am suprised that such valuable videos still have relatively small number of displays. It should get viral and be seen by as many people as possible, especially journalists and politicians. Maybe it could help avoid tragedy. Thank you Vlad and keep doing!
@@realizedreams4905 Thanks so much. This video has got a bit of criticism for using such a crass and colourful thumbnail and trashy title. It's a tricky balance using this app. I would love to use a beautiful photo or even artwork - I will be experimenting with this! But at the moment, the app likes that less and shows the video to fewer people.
@@realizedreams4905 Thanks so much. This video has got a bit of criticism for using such a crass and colourful thumbnail and trashy title. It's a tricky balance using this app. I would love to use a beautiful photo or even artwork - I will be experimenting with this! But at the moment, the app likes that less and shows the video to fewer people.
@Mazzel Tov You are technically right, it is mostly speculation mixed with facts. However what Vlad does is a well research educated guess, which is far superior than what mass media and YT have. For example I don't agree with everything that Vlad posts, but I have to admit that it is essentially my opinion against his opinion, both on an intangible like Putin. What Vlad provides then is a little jewel in YT on a subject that is mostly absent. For other things like up to the minute, on the field tactical information, or upper level war strategy, you have plenty of options, some of them superb.
You are making great videos and I can only agree with you on all of your points. I just hope that many many more people would start watching your channel. Great job.
So kind thank you!
It always seemed to me that in a situation like the current one, leaders should never say “We will not do X”.
They usually say it to reassure their own citizens. However, it is much better not to say it and leave the opponent guessing.
NEVER publicly define limits to your actions.
I ponder on if the U.S and NATO intelligence assets maintain a system of strategic ambiguity publicly via media as a tool to not sow panic and speculation. Where as secretly, their dialog liaisons with Putin through Macron, Erdogan and the U.S diplomatic line are more poignant and direct about where the redlines are. Things like tactical nukes, chemical weapons, airstrikes directly on western convoys and refugees to and from Poland.
This is where the West won the pre-war. The West didn't give any specifics. It was all vague.
Yes. In negotiations one should never say what one is never willing to do.
Biden explicitly did just that, took nothing off the table even though their was domestic critism.
Everybody lies
Fascinating video and a very useful guide to the Putin-nuke conundrum, which is keeping a lot of people awake at night, me included. I've not been a fan of MacFaul since he started popping up on these shows. I think that in general, the West should be blabbing less about what should or should not be done and playing its cards much closer to its chest. Back in WW2, it was a totally acceptable tactic to mislead the enemy and do all sorts of things covertly; what Putin himself is doing with impunity.
We should flat out tell him, just once: If you shoot one nuclear bomb regardless of size then we are going to target you directly with whatever is required! We take it personally! Stop killing innocents or you’re going to die. Then be quite.
Thank you!
100% agree
@@VladVexler It does not matter what Mike was saying. The UK would force the US into action by responding with there own Nuclear response. Attacking Poland means you have attacked NATO directly, that is by legal treaty, war. Biden would be forced into moving his hand as he was with Ukraine.
I almost spat out my coffee when McFaul took nukes off the table. Practically giving Putin the green light.
The critical distinction is: is he speaking even 10% in a formal capacity as an affiliate of Biden's administration. If so, his comments aren't OK!
@@VladVexler Oh I agree. It might even be a good policy. But he shouldn't say it!
@@Greasyspleen yes! He is likeable for how unfiltered he is! But…
@@VladVexler If that interview was in 2013, and he's not a member of Biden's team currently, then what he said was Obama administration policy circa 2013 which is a decade ago, and before Putin annexed Crimea. When was the interview done, and who was he working for when the interview was conducted?
If he works for some think tank, then he's just saying what he thinks, or what his client (might be a political party or specific agency) has assessed.
I'm more shocked that they couldn't find a more competent Russian speaker to be ambassador.
Get the basics right, guys.
13 minutes worth my time. Very intelligent analysis. May you live long and happyly.
@Mr Vexler,: Yours are always, by far, the best analysis of Putin and Russia currently available. A great many thanks for sharing your indispensable insights with the West. Hopefully US, EU and Nato decision makers are taking copious notes
Thank so much. I think this may be true as far as video content goes in English. What's sad, is the the quality of Russia conversation is very high, but 95% of Russians don't access it.
Brilliant analysis Vlad! Thank you! I so wish someone in the position of making these kinds of decisions had you as an advisor; I would feel a lot better about our futures.
Dear you thank you for watching!
this channel is so good the best have low subs relative to the foolish experts and news types
He is brilliant i wish he was an advisor to the president
@@larrytucker4670 Hey there is Arestovich any more lunatics will make it an insane asylym
I binge watch your videos Vlad, I could listen to these lectures all day. I agree, one has to be tough, firm, and concrete when dealing with a dictator, they can smell any sign of weakness and will seek to exploit it.
Thank you so much Vlad, your voice really brings clearness to all this. You’re giving a great service 🙏🏻
My great pleasure.
I value your perspective on this crisis. Thank you.
Claire thank you!
Thank you Vlad - another illuminating appraisal and set of pointers for managing this horrible threat.
Great analysis. Biden personally insulting Putin, McFaul saying that there would be little response to a Russian nuke, and a resentful Putin backed in a corner could be a recipe for even more of a catastrophe than we are already witnessing.
I was perhaps a bit harsh on Michael. I do think Biden is strong on step 3. Risk is low, but low is too high.
@@VladVexler McFaul has made many 'bad takes' on this war so perhaps not harsh enough! Especially since he's giving interviews in both Russian and English and on every working camera he can find! He is no longer an official of the administration and is doing more harm than good by interfering with Whitehouse messaging which has already been bungled catastrophically by Biden with his latest remarks in Warsaw about regime change!
Of course I'm on Ukraine side but the sudden change from peace and love to arms race in Europe is a bit scary. Of course Putin is to blame and we couldn't rely on USA forever but still scares me. And you're right IMO we're closer to a nuclear confrontation than anytime in the past. Peace ✌️
@@VladVexler Also we have been seeing more posturing by the west on involvement, statements such as "If Russia uses chemical weapons, there will be a response, "We will defend every inch of NATO territory, don't you even think about it!", statement from US official in NYT saying that "All bets are off" on Western involvement if tactical nuke used in Ukraine.
@@JUSTforwhitlisting nope nukes are already sent Incase but you won't be told and just like not from one country and by NATO every country is forced to respond to who ever uses nukes first it actually is what NATO stands for
In my country, the UK, we have 6 B52s which occasionally perform "trial-runs" alongside the Ukranian border, escorted by jets from several NATO countries, which seem to be successful in evading SAM missiles, although this has yet to be tested in anger. In the event of a tactical nuclear demo by Putin, I suspect these B52s would bomb a number of Russian convoys, very extensively. This would, in a few hours, double the Russian body-count in the Ukraine war. Alternatively they could destroy roads back into Russia, and follow up by picking the troops off over a longer period. Nobody is commenting on this. These convoys are 1000 miles from Moscow, and are very vulnerable in an unlimited war situation. Mothers of Russian soldiers, welcome you sons back home before this happens. No sense in dying to satisfy the power lust of Putin.
My country too - greetings from Hackney East London !
When Pootin started to threat with nukes, NATO said we have nukes too
@@pioneernut7487 Russia has never threatened anyone with nuclear weapons. Zelensky asked the United States to use nuclear weapons against Russia. Let me remind you that General MacArthur in the middle of the last century asked the US government to use fifty nuclear bombs against Korea and three hundred nuclear bombs against Russia.
@@user-zz1kd7zu2x And now, decades later everybody can see why it was a mistake not to nuke russia into oblivion. Time for russian Empire to join the rest of the empires in the dustbin of history. The world doesn't need a russia anymore.
@@danielkaszas2982 You'd think Russia would ask someone.
I am extremely emotive and this video really helps me try to put myself in check and reflect. Thank you
Sending gentle wishes to you.
Such great content. Thanks!
Just discovered and have been binging your channel . I grew up with the cold war .The tension between two grand designs held the stars apart and elevated us above mere tribalism. I understand how polyanna that sounds. Now we have a major war I have only the insight I get from this channel and the news providers who are struggling too provide context. Thanks again this is important
Vlad you are the very antithesis of Vladimir, and the only 'antidote' to him as far as I can tell. If he (and other world leaders) had a fraction of your intelligence, knowledge and wisdom the world would be a better and safer place. Thank you.
Hee hee hee that is very lovely!
You deserve 100 times the number of views. ...... You have knowledge, but more, you have insight.
Another excellent analysis Vlad. I can only hope our leaders our listening to your wise counsel. Keep up the great work!
Great video! The second point is especially important I feel as giving clear consequences for certain actions is vital for people with certain minds(like Putin) to understand.
By extension of this video it's also worth learning what a nuclear war might actually look like in reality as, although still beyond horrible, it's also nowhere near the end of all things as everyone seems to think. I personally feel the risk, although elevated, is still low overall, it's worth looking into what you can do in case it all does seem to escalate to keep yourselves and your loved ones safe should you happen to live in or near a potential nuclear target. I've personally made my own contingency plan already, probably won't be needed, but better to have it.
The risk is very low. But very low is too high for us. We need it to be very very very very low!
@@VladVexler Absolutely, the world was on decent track with reducing nuclear arsenals and this put a dent in that trajectory. Not a good thing at all
"keep yourselves and your loved ones safe should you happen to live in or near a potential nuclear target"???? hmmmmm.. well, I can't say that you are wrong, but you do realize that estimates of a full out nuclear war would result in at least 2000 American cities and towns vaporized? Other strategic estimates suggest that any town over 30,000 people would be targeted. Then one has to guess which way the wind will carry deadly radiation, not to mention the nuclear winter that is predicted to last at least 10 months , world wide, killing billions of humans from starvation. And guess which 1st world, fat , lazy and clueless country will have the worst outcome? which country has no idea how to live off the land, live without piped in water and electricity or for that matter think rationally. something to pounder. good luck
"it's also worth learning what a nuclear war might actually look like in reality as, although still beyond horrible, it's also nowhere near the end of all things as everyone seems to think" ...err...er.m..eh? What do you think it would look like in reality? Nato And Russia have enough nukes to kill every living thing on the planet several times over if they want - about 12,000 warheads between them. If you live near the center of the city you get instant death (you're the lucky ones). I little bit further out and you have days or possibly weeks of painful radiation burns and sickness to deal with before you die. If your rural the you just need to work out what you eat now that the soil, water and air are irradiated. You can't grow crops because the sun doesn't shine and the temperature's dropped considerably. You slowly starve and freeze to death if the radiation doesn't get you first. Nuclear war would be the end of modern civilisation.
@@lunahemera6387 no-one is reducing anything, US is updating theirs Russia too. And about surviving or living afterwards: u don't need to b nearby to b fucked. There was simulation done with India and Pakistan having a nuke war. And it would be enough to start world wide nuclear winter for a decade. Now u can try to imagine surviving that, when there's no inuf sunlight to grow anything.
Russia and US starting one = THE END.
Apart for cockroaches maybe
I can't see how any part can tolerate anyone else using tactical nuclear weapons. Remember that these are not "small" nukes. They are as large or larger than the Hiroshima/Nagasaki bombs.
Any use will have to be answered with a strike to neutralize as many nukes as possible from the perpetrator
Another great video Vlad. McFaul's comments about the possible response to Putin using a single nuclear weapon are disturbing
If we see him as speaking even partly in an official role. What he has described is close to what would happen in reality.
@@VladVexler response described by him means NATO is over. Poland is member of NATO, and if it's attacked, NATO is obligated to defend it. Statements, that suggest that is not going to happen are either dumb or suggests that NATO does not work. I hope he is just dumb.
@@VladVexler As Szymon mentioned, a nuke on Poland has only a single possible answer, immediate full blown conventional war, with nuclear readiness. You may be right that the west has its meandering ways and they think exactly what McFaul said. But under such an attack, it would be societies themselves which would push their leaders. It is like pretending that FDR would have just sanctioned Japan upon Pearl Harbor, it would be unthinkable. That is the point where geopolitics clash and get overwhelmed by local politics.
And you have seen these shifts between what they thought they were going to do and what they actually had to do in the before and after the invasion, for both the politicians and the society.
Just 2 months ago, saying that the European society would receive 4M+ refugees would have been laughable. Or that Europe could agree on blocking the central bank... actually that they could agree onto anything at all...
Interestingly, McFaul calculations are essentially the same that we all had on how would the West react, Putin included. And it turned out a miscalculation.
@@VladVexler reality is NATO all of them including china are required yes required to nuke who ever uses nukes and it will be the end of Russia and your talking ten country that will send a nuke into Russia and there is zero doubt that will happen
appreciating your clarity and also the call for "emotional intelligence."
Thank you!
Thanks for sharing your wisdom💜
Biden needs to have you as a Russia political advisor for him and his staff :)
You are just lovely.
@@VladVexler She may be just lovely, but she's still quite right. ;)
Another very interesting video. But it is difficult to imagine Putin wanting to go down in history is the Slav who nuked Slavs. Most people in Kreml must hate such an idea. Who could he 'safely' nuke? Most military leaders only see nukes as a useful deterrent, not as a useful weapon.
But he has absolutely flattened Mariopol and other areas killing tens of thousands of Ukrainians, which he considers to be Russians anyway. It did occur to me that he would use a tactical nuclear weapon on the Azovstal plant.
I really like how you see things, and talk about it. Thank you! :)
Pleasure
I couldn't agree with you anymore... I see this too!. Thank you for helping me to articulate what you have said. Prayers for Peace 🙏🙏🙏
Vlad...loving your insight.
Thank you so much!
Found your channel recently, and you have consistently delivered the most insightful analysis. Particularly in viewing the conflict through Putin versus the typical "rational player" lens the West uses. Putin *is* rational but his reasoning is not informed by European beliefs of rational behavior nor are his goals aligned with Europe's. I don't think I've seen another analyst even mention Русский мир.
Thanks for this video!
Thank you!
Interesting perspective as always Vlad!
Hi Vlad love your channel, I'm a philosophy major, minoring in history. It's been really great seeing you break this mess down from a philosophical point of view!
I have a question for you and I don't think it's been talked about by anyone really.
This whole situation seems to me to be if not a repeat than a close reenactment of the situation of the Russian Empire in 1917. A heavily demoralized conscript army engaged in a war which they know they can't win and probably don't understand.
While all the talk of coups has been focused on the FSB, the oligarchs, Putin's inner circle and the leadership of the Military, no one seems to be talking about the average Russian soldier.
We've already seen soldiers refusing to fight, sabotaging their vehicles and deserting, so my question is what if soldiers in the Russian army begin to mutiny?
It seems to me that there are already signs of this with the incident of the Russian soldier running over his commander. If larger groups begin to mutiny how would this effect the war? It seems to me that Russian soldiers, particularly the conscripts would have at least some incentive to do this. When faced between being used as bullet fodder and a potential court martial, it seems to me the latter seems more appealing.
If there were large mutinies could this embolden other opposition groups in the Russian military or population?
Thanks very much for your content! It's really awesome!
Cheers,
Liam
Liam I do hope your studies are going well!!! I have a second little channel where I answer questions directly. I will answer you in video form on the next Q&A on the Clips channel. I always share time stamps so you don’t have to listen to all the other answers. Look forward!
@@VladVexler Thanks very much!
Your answer just up on clips channel - jump over and click your name in the timestamps
I've watched Vlad's reply, and I fully agree with him, but let me add my penny into that.
Two key words: learned helplessness. You probably cannot imagine how much this is a thing in Russia
1. Mutiny cannot happen if there is no brotherhood, or at least some kind of unity in the group. And there is none. Because:
2. The soldiers are mostly kids who just turned 18-20 and expected to spend just a tiny year in the army. They have no connection either to their families or other divisions/platoons/etc. (almost no phones are allowed, and those that are cannot be casually used since the cell network is Ukrainian in the region)
3. They don't know of any war plans or strategies being implemented and they don't see the large picture, with all these colourful maps of conflict we can see updated every day, because nobody's telling them that. So they can be persuaded that everything is going according to the _plan_
4. They mostly come from the poorest regions of the country, so they're kinda used to being lied to by the officials and the government (basically, like everybody in Russia), and they've learnt to rely solely on themselves. Which also adds to p. 1.
5. The diversity in the Russian army is highly skewed not only towards people from the poorest regions, but also towards people from some of the North Caucasian regions who have stronger bonds in between them (including being more religious and probably xenophobic overall). So the interethnical matters can also be tense inside of any unit. Which, again, adds to p. 1. No unity inside and between the units.
And yeah, the militarism is weak, the administrative faces are shuffled between different tasks every day, nobody is powerful and self-confident enough to organize a mutiny.
This is already a lengthy answer, but let me go a little more further.
There are lots of historical analogies people make, but to me, the years 1812 and 1853 seem more appealing than any other.
1812 - Napoleon invades Russia, Russian troops retreat from the borders towards Moscow without any major battle, because the commanders know they wouldn't beat the Napoleon's soldiers (since he had already beaten Russians on multiple occasions in Europe). The Russian soldiers don't want to fight 'for tsar and fatherland' because they don't want to die for unknown reasons (Napoleon wasn't known to overtake European countries and bring genocide there, so he wasn't seen as a threat to the life of common folk, and even to the sovereignty of Russia! )
So, what do these soldiers do? Rebel? No, they go deserters. Why not rebel, under the face of being used as a "bullet fodder", as you say?
Well, maybe because at the same time, there are peasant riots around the country, and these same soldiers are sent to crush them all (don't be surprised here, the soldiers served 20 years, under complete subordination to their officers who could humiliate, beat, and even kill them and get away with it), so they were ripped off the roots and the fates of the civil peasantry). They all knew that martial court would've destroyed them, so running was at least a little bit more viable option. Basically, nowadays, the court may also easily destroy your life, so at least the legal decline to take part in the "operation" is a more viable alternative to mutiny.
The other similarity to 1812 is that the then tsar Alexander I came to power after his dad (~USSR) was brutally murdered by his own generals (~Soviet elites) who then handed over the power to Alexander (Putin was brought to power by the ex-communist oligarchs), who then, during the first years on the throne, worked towards the liberalization and democratization of the country (Putin started as a pro-liberal politician), but then turned his back to all these ideas.
Lots of psychological similarities here, don't you think?
1853 - basically, because the general lore is painfully similar.
Build-up of a police state in the decades before, strong oppression and censorship of the opposing thoughts.
A made-up motive for starting a conflict: protection of Orthodox Christian (= Russian, in the eyes of the tsar) values from Turkey. An allied response to the Russian aggression from the West (although, of more military character). Failed logistics (a crucial factor, then and now!). Lots of deaths (also from the rampant plagues). Leader (Nikolai II) getting sick (and dying) in the middle of the situation. Retreat and peace treaty on bad terms for Russia.
Not all of the points can be seen yet (the tsar dying and the treaty part), but the rest is virtually the same.
Well, we shall see where it brings is to, but I feel there will be rainbow and sunshine after the storm. There is a saying that "one needs to live long in Russia" [in order to see one's opponents go away into nothingness].
Thanks for the attention, if you managed to go this far.
Let peace be with you
Interesting, a kind of Leo Kovalensky or Potemkin mutiny
We need to find a way to pipe Vlad's Russian war related videos DIRECTLY into the Whitehouse!
You are lovely!
As always, great content and I’ve especially enjoyed “binge” watching liking your videos and yes subscribed!
Lots to think about. Thank you Vlad and good health !!
Thank you John!
Thank you again for your broad and thoughtful perspective. I am keen to know what you think the Russian population would do/think if Putin did use a tactical nuclear weapon on a neighbouring state? Would this enhance his popularity or undermined it?
Is it possible, given the sanctions and the marginal success in the invasion that a nuclear strike would enhance his support at home?
Or does public opinion have very little influence upon the the actions of the Kremlin?
Public opinion does not have influence on action of Kremlin, but they do care about it. Dont know if it make sense for you. They want to do what they want and want people to support it. They spent a lot of money and efforts on propaganda.
As far as people opinion on nuclear strike. There is basically two types of supporters of of "special operation" as far as I can see from my surroundings and surveys on the street that I saw. First is warmongers who believe in NATO threat and think of Ukraine as puppet of America. Their portion is uncomfortably and shamefully high. They will probably support it, possibility of destruction of America in nuclear fire is often brought in propaganda as point of pride.
Second group is apolitical people who support government just because it is a government. For them it is just another small somewhere-there war that would not affect them much, people get very used to that in 21 century, unfortunately. For them nuclear explosion may be a sign that something went wrong. That may get them scared and their reaction is kind of unpredictable. May be denial, may be upheaval, probably mass buying of toilet paper.
That unpredictability probably deters government from making sudden moves. Like mobilization, turning of the internet or letting prices rise too much.
About politicians critizicing putin, we also need to understand that no matter what we do, putin will escalate anyways. When i was in elementary school, some older boys used to threaten to beat, and then beat up other boys. I insulted them, called them bullies and cowards. My friends told me not to insult them cause that would provoke retaliations, but i did it anyways cause i knew if they didnt critizice them, they would look for any other excuse to beat me up. Cause i looked at them the wrong way, cause i dodn't give them my sports... No matter what we say, sociopaths will always find excuses to attack us, cause thats what they do, they attack. So, we should critizice and say the truth anyways. It changes nothing but the fact that everybody will know who is the bully who threatens to destroy the world.
Appeasement does not work. It did not work against the Vikings. It did not work against Herr Hitler. It will not work against Gospodin Putin.
Damn straight. It's not like Putin ever needed an excuse for his actions, he simply invented one as convenient.
Excellent. Thank you
Pleasure!
Great video ...it's a matter of "keep your friends close and your enemies closer"
I read on medusa, that Russia's nuclear strategy is the same as once soviet's was: maximum escalation untill de-escalation. That means you confront the world with nuclear catastrophe and at the last moment you back off.
In theory (at least) you gain more than you get with diplomacy or conventual war.
The problem with this concept is that soviet times are past. Russia is no longer Soviet Union.
Russia's developement is strong connected with EU, and Russia should consider that and not jeopardize that connection with stupid wars.
Russia-EU relationships have been building over 30 years, and were undone in a moment now by launching the war. They aren't coming back. Russia will never be trusted as a trade partner and investment target under current regime again. The ship has sailed. Power play is all that remains.
As an American we aren't much for letting others threaten us. If the putin regime wants to keep talking nukes we need to take the proper steps to eliminate the threats.
As an American 🙂 I agree. Leaving Putin in power & with nukes for another 10- 20 years is simply an unacceptable outcome in my view. Obviously, it would have to be done very carefully with plausible deniability and we would need to have a good understanding about what happens the day after.
Maybe try to get some US media informed by finding a way to watch them Vlad's analyses. I'm sure they will love it and use the info to get some discussions going. I don't care which side of the political geography you belong too but get the big media channels involved with this info.
I don't get it. We went for decades of cold war with USSR. We seemed perfectly fine then.
Sheep, go find god! Your government is devil and you are to blind to see it...
Another great video Vlad! Thank you! If i may ask, where were you born? I cant guess... or was it just todays RF? What part of CCCP? Thank you again for your work!
Great video as always!
Thanks so much!!
I concur 100%.
Great job Vlad. I like your capacity to find the weak spot in both parts, not only in the Russian part. In fact, I do believe that someone like you should be involved in tactics and negotiation. Fundamentally, it seems that the west is not capable of understanding Putin and the regime's fears and weaknesses. This mistake is present, although in a different form, both in Mearsheimer and McFaul. Unfortunately, this is the downside of democracy: sometimes relevant figures speak out too quickly.
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Great video,You give off a captivating energy.
Thank you dear Nicole! Glad you were attuned despite the crass thumbnail on this video!
I appreciate your rationality and analysis. Just subscribed.
Kristina welcome!
4:07 1. Don't insult Putin (Our leaders and media)
5:27 2. Take a Hard-nosed position (tough, firm, and clear)
9:10 3. The nuclear filter
On the "No fly" zone: Russian pilots flew Russian jets with local markings in combat in Korea and Vietnam so there is already historic precedent. While I don't advocate it at this stage US pilots flying US jets with local markings in Ukraine would be very unlikely to start world war three. 🙄
This whole idea of the NATO and Russia never being able to engage is wheeled out all the time when it suits Russia but there's no basis for it in reality.
You have the most Best analysis of Russia, and Ukraine war that iv heard, it has really contributed to my understanding of this all. Thanks and keep up with the good content.
God bless.... Peace n solidarity
You are excellent in your analysis...with great coverage of resources...great job
Recommendations:
1- Don't offend Putin
2- Say we are not afraid of you, Putin (which is not true, of course: Check nº 1).
3- Just do not do anything. Not even let yourself be influenced by "democratic uproars".
Summing up: Just let Putin do whatever he wants because we are snowflakes sissies (even having a technological e economic superiority - besides nuclear weapons as good as his).
When you signing up to fight on the frontline, Pedro?
Yes, in this video you have said what we,meaning our politicians, have to address and very very quickly. I have always believed that for many years we have been prodding the bear and using childish insults to Putin has been counter productive.We MUST now find some highly skilled and intelligent diplomats to talk to Putin to try and offer him something which will encourage him to de-militarise his current stance. I fear that it could go to Putin blackmailing the world after an initial nuclear strike on Ukraine if nothing is done by a confused west.
There isn’t much we can offer him. Except the alleviation of the sanctions, which is very difficult to do. The pattern of escalation will continue. So we will have time to learn.
@@VladVexler What about allowing him to have his eastern corridor and no further expansion of NATO plus reversing the sanctions however difficult it may be for him to cease hostilities.I feel that even if we did that Russia will never have the standing in the world that it did and it did have some so that would leave his own people to replace him. I can't believe that the world has been allowed to go back 80 years and we haven't progressed a jot.
@@VladVexler you said it yourself that the lines of communication should be open. I realize that Antony Blinken was keeping the lines of communication open with Russia before the invasion but it was insulting to not describe any change that would resolve the perceived issues. To me that is not what needs to happen. It is insulting to enter a negotiation absolutely rigid. We should have meditated and contemplated what would address Russia's interests and Ukraine's interests beforehand as a mediator and that would have been to draw new lines of territory, stop all war stances, and declare neutrality, and declaring all cultures from Cossack, Jewish, Russian, and others worthy of civil rights protection. But now that Ukraine is halfway destroyed Zelensky does not want to accept that gift of land any longer. The US is having a hard time pretending that it is not a powerful state and one possessing empathy. It has not advocated for Houthi in Yemen or Palestinians in Israel for many years. Many analysts are saying that the US wanted Ukraine demolished and Russia weakened as if Ukraine was a sacrificial lamb or a poison pill. It seems that as you mentioned the United States is proving quite antagonizing and frustrating but not relaxing and diplomatic. This is the playbook going back several decades. Piss people off and frustrate them until they go mad! This may work with Ghaddaffi and Hussein but not useful in my opinion with Xi and Putin. Not only that but a world should not be divided between those with rights and those who you believe have no rights. It reduces your moral authority, which makes it impossible to accomplish what Reagan and Bush Senior did with Russia. That appears to be impossible today.
@@boctunes1853 Yes it looks like Russia has not progressed because it is run on mafia principles and Putin is aware of this so he might continue to threaten countries to make gains and so we all end up in a nuclear war. One madman can do so much damage. That's why we must try and talk him down before it's too late.
Interesting, your digging around & thinking makes us think
Well done ! Thank you !
Pleasure
The scary things are a) You say exactly what I have been thinking (respect, hard line, communication), and b) I don't hear this articulated anywhere else (or hardly anywhere else, the respect part certainly nowhere).
But even scarier than that was McFaul - what IS he thinking?
I've been slowly watching the long interviews in the PBS Putin Project, and with a few exceptions (Strobe Talbott surprised me) American policy wonks seemed totally to be living in lala-land where sanctions have positive effects on anything.
Trashing the international order (mail, civil aviation, trade, transport, payment systems) just because military means are too icky is to even talk about is both stupid and cowardly.
So… you want to be macho, and prove it by killing more Russians than they kill Americans.
Why? Sanctions are having very real effects, although it takes a little time for them to build up.
I recall in your previous video you mentioned how Putin was unique, in that he has socialised the discussion about nuclear weapons, which for everyone else was a taboo discussion. Well, you were right, and here we are, discussing it again. We have to seriously consider how we prepare and deal with this. To your point, if the west / Nato is in the denial state, 'Putin will never do that', then we are completely unprepared if it does happen. Putin has forced this discussion onto the table, I totally agree, we can't live in the cold War, or post cold war, era, and pretend it's not a possibility. Anyone debating a non nuclear response to a nuclear strike is completely delusional. There has to be a firm line on that, any nuclear attack will be net with a proportional, but nuclear, response. Maybe we don't go straight to mutually assured destruction, but we definitely go to an equivalent response. Suggesting a no fly zone in response to a nuclear strike, madness. One point for the US to consider. The US is not the only country with a finger on a nuclear trigger.
Now Putin has forced this point, we have to be 100% clear on what, how, who would respond to a nuclear strike, and make that loud & clear. It's not a threat, but it's a promise, kinda thing. Totally agree on point (1), it's never a good idea to antagonise people with fragile ego's, unless you're ready to really fight them.
Another fantastic video. Great insight.
Thank you!
outstanding. thank you.
Thanks!
That clown basicly just gave Putin the green light to use nukes... WTF??
Very interesting video, especially that interview. What effect would non-retaliation to any nuclear strike, no matter how small, have within Nato and the EU, especially opinions within the old Warsaw Pact countries? Would this not be seen as a betrayal? I'm also hearing more from people in the US that even if Russia were to go all out on striking Europe with tactical nukes or even an EMP the US would probably not be willing to commit any of its nuclear arsenals in retaliation, saving it in defence of their own country...(America First)... There are also those having the opinion that Ukraine isn't their fight, and even (thanks to Trump) that Nato will get what it deserves because they became weak and no American life should be 'wasted'.
As for the use of nuclear weapons, I'm still more concerned with a Nato response. Let's say Putin's original objectives were only to annex the eastern part of Ukraine, hence the limited resources he's so far deployed, and every other act elsewhere was just a diversion, how would that sit in Europe and internationally? Would the annexation lead to subsequent military action to force the Russians out? Could Europe and the US just sit there with Russia now a proven threat, and do nothing further?
Sorry, I'm having a lot of trouble not relating current events with what was written about Soviet and Chinese plans for Western destabilisation before 'the fall', maybe I've read too much Golitsyn!
I do like your honest and factual view of the current situation.
Vlad im glad i found your channel, your insights are very poignant and correct about this war in Ukraine, and the N-filter and the steps to stop Putin in this episode, social media has had an effect on this war unprecedented and not in a positive way, but your wisdom is helping put the right spin on it, i will recommend your channel, and i hope more people listen to your insights, thank you.
I take it you disagree with one of Biden's remarks...
I think Biden is strong on step 3, less stable on steps 1 & 2
Seeing that former Diplomat genuinely say the US wouldn't respond to a nuclear strike is absolute insanity...
Another nice one Vlad, best channel on RUclips
He's back!! No better way to spend a well deserved 30 minute break!! I get so excited to see what your latest assessment is going to be!!
Jake thank you!
@@VladVexler You are welcome my friend! As usual you were flawless. I am terribly sorry that I haven't been able to watch and comment lately. We have been extremely busy at work. But I have been taking the time to watch EVERY video that you post. And as per usual, you ALWAYS deliver. Have a blessed day my friend.
I just wish Your channel was being watched by Biden advisors at the White House
Nice work.
Thanks!
I seriously would love to meet you one of these days for a long chat ! You are so articulate, sensible and logical. I presume you are a lecturer? If only politicians would listen to you. If you give public speeches let me know!
Great vídeo! 👍👍👍
Brilliant speaker, thank you for your clear and eloquent explanations
My pleasure, thanks so much for watching.
Great topic
Danke sehr. Es ist wiedermal sehr interessant und lehrreich und informativ.
Always appreciate your insightful analysis. Between Putin and global warming, things are not looking good.
The response to "what if poland got just a little bit nuked" I formulated in my head went as follows:
"Poland is a member of NATO, where an attack against one is an attack against all. Poland does not have nuclear weapons of its own, so it is the responsibility of the other powers in the alliance to provide it with deterrence. Our response will be proportionate, and deliver the appropriate level of damage. Whatever harm Putin does to our ally, will fall on Russia as well. If Putin wishes to use such weapons against Poland, he must ask himself which part of the motherland he is willing to forsake."
I'm sure it's some mixture of warmongering naivete and arrogance, but it sounded cool in my head at the time.
Response should not be proportional, it should be exponential. Threaten nothing less than nuclear genocide.
If Warsaw is nuked, moscow should be nuked immeduately as retaliation. Twice
Love your videos vlad
So appreciate it!
Thank you
Thank you!
Intelligent and logical. Well presented ideas.
Thanks!
Impressively insightful
Thank you!
Excellent!
You can't expect deterrence to work if you take the option of using nukes off the table.
..continuing brilliant points of view, especially not to insult Mister Putin (which seems so easy for one from day to day, watching all the horrible news), but keeping a clear and strong attitude in front of his threats (like a Bruce Lee would do) seem absolutely right to me.
Thank you
good vids pal
Hate it when thise faaar away discuss something that could happen here 😑 Great video thank you.
I just read your profile Vladimir - I too am facing a neurology problem- in my case terminal brain cancer (stage 4 aggressive GBM) so I think I can relate to you. That said I really appreciate the subtlety of the communication aspects you raise…and I wonder in amazement at the lack of self awareness that you highlight in the various western advisors - incredible nativity they display.
Good luck man...
You are brilliant
Good to see your chanel growing.
That’s so kind. I am a bit caught between trashy thumbnails and serious content at the movement. The algorithm in this app is a bit tricky to negotiate.
@@VladVexler I think you doing good job, in it all. Your concepts you deliver well. I wish I so articulate. I put one of your videos on my FB and have told a few people about you. I think what you have to say people need to hear, if they like it or not is up to them. Please keep going. I think we are all in for another iron curtain long time again.
@@donwoodward2615 Thank you so much. My bottom line on this channel is really about staying hopeful while telling the truth.
@@VladVexler A very good goal to have on your topics.
Great video again, you are right on the money about reading Putin in my opinion... Show a wall of strength without making it a personal fight... To make it personal with such an egotist is highly dangerous.
I am so grateful to you for these videos which are clarifying, provocative ... dazzlingly brilliant. You bring the power of Western philosophical thinking to tackle real-world problems. And, with the added delight, of an insider Russian perspective - paralleling Isaiah Berlin on the periphery of the Russian troika. I wonder if you have read Oleg Kalugin's Master Spy - as it has much on the KGB and Putin - including the last chapter which explains him as a brinkmaster who will create one crisis after another?
You make a lot of sense make a good diplomat love your videos.
Bravo!
Good advice, if well taken by our leaders.
What you say makes total sense!
Thank you for watching