Dow Theory Flashes Bearish Signal- May 2024 Update!
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- Опубликовано: 20 окт 2024
- Dow Theory is based on the foundational work of Charles Dow, considered the "Father of Technical Analysis." When the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports do not confirm a new high, we have a "bearish confirmation" which indicates trend exhaustion. We'll walk through this traditional Dow Theory, along with two more modern versions and what to expect through the end of Q2.
What do you see happening for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq through the end of Q2? Drop a comment and let me know!
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Dave helps active investors and financial advisors make more informed investment decisions, inject more discipline into their investment process, and enrich relationships with their clients. Feel better about making better decisions!
Dave is the Chief Market Strategist at StockCharts.com, where he helps investors minimize behavioral biases through technical analysis. He is a frequent host on StockCharts TV, and he relates mindfulness techniques to investor decision making in his blog, The Mindful Investor.
He's also President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC, a boutique investment research and consulting firm focused on managing risk through market awareness. He combines the strengths of technical analysis, behavioral finance, and data visualization to identify investment opportunities and enrich relationships between advisors and clients.
Dave was previously a Managing Director of Research for Fidelity Investments in Boston, a Past President of the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Association, and started in the financial industry just after the March 2000 market top at Bloomberg in New York.
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Great work. Thanks! I had heard about the correlation with the Transports, but I did not fully appreciate the context until now.
Glad you found this one helpful! D
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Prices are certainly not going down, but that's not a "right now" thing and more of a "pretty much always the case" thing. Inflation is the rate at which prices increase, which has been increasing for centuries! Appreciate you watching and I hope my content helps you put things into perspective. D
We just had a correction. I don't see a new correction on the short term. Maybe juli/aug?
are you sure its over. This push up wasn't very healthy under the hood. Push up on very low falling volume. You can see the "true" move with A/D indicator (Accumulation/Distribution). Market is too far away from 200ma which works like a magnet. I'd say the risk of a mean reversion is quite high. Sure we got a bullish cross with 50 and 20 ma but market was close to doing that last pullback as well after first leg down.
Top can take a while to form, perhaps this is an early warning of summer peak? Perhaps... D
Dave, the video sounds as though you're seeing changes in the mkts. long term uptrend. Hopefully my comments last week didn't take the wind out of your sails. I'm simply looking at the larger macro vs. solely technicals. Gotta' love that Dow theory, we could be in consolidated/distribution, if so, you know what comes next. Changes are emerging=trailing stops in place. Good stuff Sir.
This is one piece of the puzzle- there are many others! Appreciate the very thoughtful comments D
Excellent as always Dave, however, looking at your charts I can't help but think of last year... 2023 was full of non-confirmation, but the market just kept. going. up. Noting all of the reasons mentioned in your video, it gives me to wonder if our post-pandemic economy is actually quite broken.
Lots of bearish signals end of 2023 did not pan out, that is 100% true! Was that an aberration, or is everything different going forward?..... D
IDK bout this new Dow Theory, Dave... but always open to new things. Think I may put some time into this too, and see what I can come up with. Will get back to you and pass my idea along if I do.
Appreciate your honesty! And thanks for watching D
Hello David
How can i talk with you??
Let me know, please
Thank you
Comments here or on X always welcome! D
The group call David Vip elite community
They are using phone to introduce to people that you are the one owns group
Dave this is great information. Thank you for providing these regular market updates
Glad you enjoyed this one! D
An excellent video - concise, factual, and informative - thank you.
Appreciate those very kind words ;) D
Always appreciate your thoughts. Thank you
So glad you enjoyed this one! D
I think Q2 & Q3 are likely to just be a bumpy ride, or a rollercoaster that goes no where in the end. I could see the S&P500 ending Q3 somewhere within the same vicinity, or within 5% of where it is currently. Then, rally into end of year after the election, for a 15-20+% gain on the year
15-20% gain for 2024 would be pretty standard for a bullish phase! D
Great job Dave-quick and helpful summary
Thanks so much for watching! D
QQQ is looking better than SPY
Lots of semis in the QQQ! D
@@DKellerCMT Yes. ARM is one of them.
I think there's really low momentum going into the end of Q2, but pull backs are being bought up and Q3 will rally.
100% agreed on low momentum, less agreement on Q3 rally which would depart from the normal seasonal pattern D
Hey Dave, we just got another Hindenburg omen
Just one signal so far in May... D
@@DKellerCMT how many do we need for it to be relevant or worrisome of a pullback
No point even trying to predict stuff day to day sir
Actually, Google "momentum factor" to see validated research that shows the predictive power of price analysis! D
Thank You
Thanks so much for watching! D
All subjective nonsense. Price predicts price- nothing else. When money enters prices increase and when money leaves prices decline.
SPX had a new weekly high close this week. Price is up because money is still coming in.
Follow money and price.
One could argue that everything we discussed is based on price! :) D
Nice!❤
Thanks for watching! D
Just two weeks ago, “bull market confirmation “ now this, flip flop
I think this may be a good buy spot actually
I also recommend marketgauge and their products
You must not be aware market conditions can change quite quickly. They (smart money) don’t announce with a nationwide broadcast when this happens
@@scottdavis5749 They don’t though, tops take a very long time to form, it’s people that change quickly.
My two cents (not investment advice): markets change. And I like to to be open to differing ideas about the same market, to make up my own mind.