#Eurovision2024
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- Опубликовано: 19 апр 2024
- It's going to be a tough fight but American Eurovision blogger, Alesia Michelle is breaking down her semi-final 1 predictions for qualification. Who will qualify for the 2024 Eurovision Grand Final in Malmö?
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Alesia Michelle is a Eurovision blogger, based in the United States and has been covering the Eurovision Song Contest on RUclips since 2015. Check out her reaction now!
The 68th Eurovision Song Contest will be hosted in Malmö, Sweden. Semifinals and finals will be held May 7th, 9th and 11th in Malmö Arena.
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I will be very sad if Serbia, Slovenia and Portugal doesn't qualify. I don't want to watch the finals without those 3...😢
my prediction is
croatia
ukraine
lithuania
serbia
slovenia
finland
ireland
australia
luxemburg
portugal/cyprus
I think Portugal will qualify instead of Cyprus and Poland will make it instead of Australia. Poland has very strong diaspora.
Reading everyone's comments on their fear of not getting Slovenia and Portugal in the final makes me naively hopeful that there will be votes to save them... 🥲 I need my mom to get emotional when she sees Portugal at the grand final
Every day I get more and more nervous about Slovenia and Portugal not qualifying, I need them both in the final
Same same same… I wasn’t having them battle it out but I’m the process of recording this it became so so clear 🤦🏾♀️🙏🏾
@@AlesiaMichelle I am scared that with Serbia in the mix, they could knock each other out
I still feel that the spot Portugal acts its the perfect spot - 14th... I think this spot Will make people remember it well! Cause when it hits you, She hits you for a long time... Im hoping a lot of people get that punch Grito makes you feel! 🇵🇹😎💪🏼
I was pretty sure about Serbia qualifying, but now I think that Serbia is in danger. Slovenia and Portugal have very good spots - 9th and second to last. Most of songs that performed 9th in first semi final, made it to the final.
I have the same prediction but different feelings:
Safe Qs - 🇭🇷🇺🇦🇱🇹🇮🇪🇫🇮🇷🇸
Likely Qs - 🇨🇾🇵🇹
Borderline Qs - 🇱🇺🇦🇺
Borderline NQs - 🇵🇱🇸🇮
Safe NQs - 🇦🇿🇲🇩🇮🇸
I don’t see a world where Portugal and Slovenia both make it sadly and the RO and allies benefit Portugal massively. I also don’t see 11th/12th being both ballads or both pop girlies. For me, Cyprus opening and Luxembourg closing hurts the latter a lot bc you’re gonna go straight from Luxembourg’s clunky vocally off performance to the recap of Silia’s expert dancing and Cyprus’ top level staging and that could mean Luxembourg misses out but for now, I have them in. I also don’t think Poles are turning out for Luna at all and this being such a small semi means that diaspora doesn’t have the same power while it’s also competing with Lithuania and Ukraine’s diaspora.
If Portugal and Slovenia dont qualify i will cry in a corner the rest of the May 😭✨️
I don't care about Portugal but Slovenia would make me 😭
@@muddyfeet69 if you dont care abt Portugal atleast be respectful and do not mention it. Thats cold of you bro, please mind ur words pls 💔🇵🇹
Imagine if neither of Portugal, Slovenia and Serbia makes it
@@heppoloI swear if serbia doesn’t make it then we need the juries back and when i say need i mean NEED
@@heppolo i would cry in the corner i swear
Slovenia is my personal winner this year, really nervous atp tbh…
Listen, I live in Germany and here are so so many Balkan people. Balkan countries tend to send their votes to other balkan countries especially when they sing in their native language (which everybody can understand). So I predict that Serbia and Slovenia will get high scores from other balkans and germany. Dont worry
I don't understand people don't appreciate how actually good Azerbaijan is 😮
My top 5 are Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Azerbaijan and Lithuania.
For a while Azerbaijan was my nr.1 but I think it´s not reaching many other people.
Azerbaijan is the type of song I'm noticing alot of people are saying "yeah it's fine" but most likely won't vote for it.
Agree. Azerbaijan is good, ai hope they will make it
Every time I listen to the playlist, Azerbaijan pops up and I'm like "wait did someone change their song? What the heck is this one?" It is NOT sticking in my memory at all. It's just... there.
Serbia is qualifying and I will vote 🗳
I really don’t want to live in a world without Slovenia and Portugal in the final… but I’m preparing for it, because Europe has been playing me dirty in recent years 😢
This semi is just so wide open. My locks would be quite similar: Croatia, Serbia, Lithuania, Finland, Ukraine, and Luxembourg. I'm pretty sure we'll have all 6 of these. But I'm almost tempted to put Poland in the locks. They have diaspora and voting allies, even if Luna doesn't perform all too well, they have way less chances to be hurt by this than countries like Cyprus or Slovenia. Ireland is a wildcard, but I'll put it through, and I think Australia is safe actually.
So Croatia, Serbia, Lithuania, Finland, Ukraine, Luxembourg, Poland, Cyprus, Ireland and Australia is my prediction.
Congrats on 30k subscribers 🎉❤ you deserved it
Thank you so much!!
I hope Slovenia passes to the final :( i like the song a lot but I constantly see people say it wont quality and i dont know why🥲 maybe its a bit repetitive but i like it still. Also as for cyprus, everyone thinks that it will qualify but all i see is people say its too generic and boring, personally i dont like it that much i think if cyprus leaves a great impression on people it has a chance to pass (since they come first in the semi final, it can be forgotten overtime. But i would prefer cyprus over Luxembourg. Either way these songs wont get a lot of points in the final if they pass because they are not special
If Luxembourg advances over Portugal or Slovenia I'm gonna be mad
Same. That song has hardly any fans so I’m not sure if it’s lock q personally
Prepare yourselves- that’s what I’m doing.
Do you really think they have waited all this time to particular and will be NQ?
Hi @@ANGELIC_DIVA_. I'm "hardly any" haha I really hope Portugal and Luxembourg will make it. They are both in my Top 5.
They put It at the end of the show for a reason, to qualify
I need Slovenia to make it to the finals. I love this song so much.
I believe Slovenia will 100% make it. Raiven already announced her performance will be unforgettable, even if not everyone’s cup of tea (her words). She’s so professional, unless something goes really bad, she will leave us gobsmacked with the performance.
I hope to see Ireland,Portugal and Azerbaijan in the Final
All 3 won't happen
Here are the qualifiers (THIS IS NOT WHAT I WANT:
Croatia
Finland
Lithuania
Poland
Serbia
Slovenia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Ireland
Ukraine
@@BeeArt9 I would LOVE to see Portugal and Moldova instead of Cyprus or especially poland but I am very pessimistic about that happening ☹️
hoping this is not accurate 🙏😂
I did statistics for the live versions of the first pre-party and the song that got the lowest % of engagement was actually Poland. Had like 30k views and 800 likes, which was the lowest % of them all. I think Poland will be in the finals only if the entire diaspora will vote for themselves. I would doubt that, since the official video has 39k likes and 20k dislikes, mostly Polish votes, so it does not seem to be so hyped in Poland either. The highest % of likes per view was for Portugal and Serbia. Also, my personal favs are Portugal & Serbia btw. And being from Slovenia I hope Raiven gets into the finals. I love the song and her performance.
Don’t rely on the fanbase. They’re artificially inflating the chances of Austria and Ireland so much rn. I learned that lesson so hard in 2019 with Telemoveis and again last year with Blanca Paloma. All signs outside the fanbase lead me to believe Poland is likely making it.
yeah but this is based in the Eurovision fan bubble - the rest of Europe and Australia will vote differently
@@ris2ani exactly. the fanclub mostly comprised of gays are nowhere an accurate representation of the average viewer
You gotta see Bambi's performance on the Late Late show last night. Stripped down, jazz rendition. So talented.
We would be so lucky if only a group of Alesia Michelles voted for the semi! It's my exact same needs and wants.
Haha we can dream
Ireland should make it because they are doing something that have never been done on the eurovision stage before
Is the song catchy enough though? I mean, if the task is to grab the normies' vote then I'd rather have a polished overproduced Circus X/Mello kind of song which feels less disjointed on the first listen.
If you can see it look up the late late show in ireland on Friday night they done a jazz version off it
If you haven't heard Bambie's New version of Doomsday Blue, please do !! Ireland is this year's Dark horse ,right ? People don't paying much attention to Ireland. It will be top 10 easily .
she will make ireland proud again and it is less a mess but a banger right now
is she gonna perform this slow version or what?
@@jimskeuh no
I really hope Slovenia will advance to the final 😭 it's my fave Song of the year 🤞 i hate that I can't vote for Raiven cause Italy Is in the second semifinal 😓
I mostly agree with u, I think Poland is in, they have many friends in this semi, instead of Cyprus. And I think Slovenia will get through instead of Portugal. I'm on the fence with Ireland, I think it's too devisive, and maybe it's wild but I predict Azerbaijan going through instead. It's unpopular in the bubble, but people outside the bubble actually really like that song at least the people I showed it to.
So pretty sure with Ukraine, Serbia, Finland, Croatia, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Australia. And borderline in Poland, Slovenia and Azerbaijan.
Australia is going to pull a Gustaph and surprise us all. I love the theatrics and comedic fun of Finland, but I would hate if it takes the spot of a worthy song.
I have faith in Australia because EF know how to do a live performance! It's going to be incredible and wow everyone
I honestly think that Azerbaijan has the potential of making it if staged correctly, as of now we know nothing about the act, not even how the live vocals sound or whether the tune will be amped up a bit for the stage, so it makes sense we think it will NQ. I think I'm most intrigued by them out of all of the acts in the semi, excited to see
I see it getting more respected towards the end of the season (like Tural Turan last year) but still not qualifying
Congratulation on 30k subscribers!
Thank you so much 😀… we will see if I can sustain it
Congrats from Sweden too 🇸🇪!
The only reason people have any doubt about Ireland Qing is because it's Ireland (i.e a country with 1Q in 7 years), its an easy qualifier and I'm sure most will wake up to this reality come rehearsals.
Just wanted to reach out and say that I really love your channel, your enthusiasm, and not to mention your insight and perspective. I always feel like I'm sitting around the kitchen table with a nice glass of wine (as I often am) and just hitting it up with a good friend when I watch your channel. 100% it's a whole vibe that's hitting exactly what I want in the run up to Eurovision. LOVE IT! Thankyou for bringing the season to life!
I appreciate that!
Can we let only Alesias Michelle vote? 🥹
L😳👀k
I would agree! Let's make a new rule! Only alesia Michelle's can vote 😂
I cannot believe we live in a world where Finland qualifies while Azerbaijan does not...
Welp....
I need Slovenia in the final, planning to send all 20 votes Raiven's way as I am pretty sure the other songs I want to qualify will qualify
Slovenia 🇸🇮 must be in the final!!!!!
Its so unlikely that Azerbaijan will qualify but I’m holding out hope. Its my #1 this year😢😂
I might vote. He seems like such a likeable person and I like the traditional part of that song.
There are two thoughts in my mind.
Thought 1
We get 6 from the first half + 4 from second half
Serbia, Lithuania, Croatia, Ukraine, Ireland (Either Cyprus OR Poland) + Slovenia, Finland, Portugal, Luxembourg
or Thought 2 We get 5 + 5
Serbia, Lithuania, Croatia, Ukraine, Ireland + Slovenia, Finland, Australia, Portugal, Luxembourg.
The thing that you also have to consider is we've ONLY had 7 countries sing in a row all qualify ONCE in 2009, the other times the most in a row has been 6, the middle section of 2017 SF1 and the end of 2019 SF2. So I don't think we get BOTH Cyprus and Poland based of statistics and picking the songs most likely (??? I don't know if that's the right phrase/word) to miss out.
The thing about the second half, is will Australia actually have a budget for anything on stage? SBS STRUGGLES for funds, so let's see. Then who takes the spot? Moldova? Azerbaijan??
I honestly think, as of April and having no ideas about staging, this semi is MUCH easier to pick than semi 2, they're a few songs that aren't making it already. The range of quality in this semi-final is much wider than semi 2. Semi Final 2 has really good songs top to bottom while this has a lot of the top and bottom, again subject to my opinion.
edit I reckon too we're more luckily to get Serbia + Slovenia + Portugal ALL IN and we will get only one of Cyprus + Poland + Luxembourg, and Australia will luckily squash in
This semifinal is one that makes me miss the juries SO BAD!
If we still had them in semis, Portugal and Slovenia would have no trouble qualifying, then Finland and Poland would never be in talks of qualifying because of them!
I think Azerbaijan might be a surprise qualifier instead of Australia, their execution might be better than what we're expecting and both are on the same category (ethnic)
all i need in my life this year is a shocker Poland/Finland nq and get Slovenia/Portugal instead (even tho i'm quite confident Raiven will get top 7 at least after her staging is revealed cause we all know our girl CAN give a lot)
I’d LOVE for Slovenia to get 7th but I just don’t see them scoring any higher than last year. People are paying the song absolute dirt no matter how impressive her performances are. :( If it qualifies, I see it getting 15th place at best.
I’m so mad that Finland is gonna make it, I think it’s super unfair that they might grab the final ticket from other MUCH better entries (Portugal, Slovenia, Cyprus, Ireland).
I just checked Finland`s official video and it has 2,1 mio views and only 23k likes. All of the 4 you mention (like them all) have a better % of likes per views compared to Finland. Raiven has 26k likes with half a million views less than Finland. Well, let`s see, but I can see a world, where Finland is a surprise nq.
Finland is infinitely better than Cyprus, Luxembourg and Poland though. Two of the three I just mentioned have subpar production and all 3 make me feel nothing. At least Windows95Man hosing the electricity makes me feel something.
Finland is going to be top3 of this semi, people who vote finland are different than the ones who watch eurovision musicvideos before the show.
Esc-fans prefer more decent, appropriate, but boring songs. Ireland's attention seeking Zombi isn't any better! 🤣
@@UsernameUsername0000 His singer is weaker then the girls you mentioned and he has pitch issues in the live performances I saw him so far. His high notes are also very thin so it doesn't sound good and it's definately not better then cyprus, luxembourg or poland. The song itself is fun though.
honestly think slovenia will benefit from nearly every song in the first half being qualifiers, it's in a sea of non-qualifiers in the second half which could make it pass through to the final
idk if im delusional but Slovenia being next to Finland serves both very well, since both have very different target audiences they act as a foil to each other. On the other hand im not so sure about some of the first half songs that are declared to be "safe qualifiers" by the fandom, particularly Serbia and Cyprus, considering they have their genre counterparts in the later half (Portugal and Luxembourg respectively)
I really love Moldova's entry this year, Natalia is a really good vocalist, I would like to see her qualifying...maybe it happens. I am so afraid for Slovenia, hopefully she'll qualify, it's such a cool song. I am worried for Azerbaijan and Luxembourg.
Agree with this completely, I'd personally take Slovenia over Cyprus, but other than that defo can see this!
We’ll yes same… but idk.
I hope Slovenia and Portugal could qualify.
Australia, Moldova and Azerbaijan could be dark horses and one of them could qualify if they have a very good performance.
Australia has the edge.
Crown the witch
I really hope Portugal qualify,it’s a beautiful song with a great singer and very different from the rest! Good luck Iolanda ❤🇵🇹
Love!
Portugal not qualifying would be a shame!
Alesia, you’re better than all the other esc media accounts, you’re more professional and fun, lots of love from the UK 🇬🇧😊❤️
poland, finland and luxembourg in my opinion dont deserve to q but i fear they are locked. so we will lose some great songs because of this, i am praying somehow we can get both slovenia and portugal..
I really think Slovenia is taking cyprus spot ! Dont underestimate the huge voting power from croatia and serbia. I'm pretty sure we will see all the former jugoslavians in the finals. Theres just no way this is not happening. Its more likely of Cyprus, Irland and even Luxemburg missing out then Slovenia
Love your set up!
Haha thank you ☺️ 🙏🏾
Alesiavision >>> Eurovision voting 😅🎉
I don't need Poland in the final, but I think Poland will make it because they have always been a televote qualifier (thanks to diaspora) with the exception of 2021. The 3 Balkan countries Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia is likely to swap points, which also gives them a boost in the tele.
Between Cyprus and Luxembourg, even though Luxembourg has the more favorable running order by closing the show, it does seem like Cyprus will be better executed live, so I believe Cyprus will qualify and Luxembourg may just miss out.
My current prediction are thus as follows:
Q:
Croatia
Ukraine
Lithuania
Finland
Serbia
Poland
Cyprus
Portugal
Slovenia
Ireland (such a wildcard, but I have faith)
NQ:
Luxembourg
Australia
Moldova
Iceland
Azerbaijan
Ok so statistically speaking we must be losing at least 1 country from the first half right? so I think it will be between Cyprus and Ireland in that regard. I don’t understand why Cyprus are so high in the odds to Q
Ireland has so much momentum, they’re qualifying!
Yes, I really hope so - Bambie is fab and I expect the actual performance is going to be something very special. But can anyone explain exactly who/what's driving the change in the odds? I know it's not just down to more people placing bets.
@@ohlord7043 Good point - I think it is just down to people placing bets. If a lot of people are putting money on it - they must be if it's climbed as much as it has - then that's a good indicator that people either like it or think others will like it.
in this weak semi, she will qualify. it stands out and most are just boring. the odds reflect the top 10 pretty well imo for this semi
Congrats for 30K ❤
Who can vote in the semi-finals? If only the countries participating in the show can vote, then it's clear that Slovenia, Croatia, and Serbia are in. All entries are good, and all singers have a strong fan base across the ex-Yugoslav countries. Ukraine is not bad and has a strong diaspora in Germany (who can vote that night) and other countries, so they are safe, I'd say. Poland, for the same reason, has a strong diaspora. Lithuania is really good and catchy, so they are also in. Ireland is standing out, not a boring entry, so they will be in. So, we have four places left. I think Azerbaijan will be in because they are excellent (forget the odds), and some people will appreciate that. What three more should manage to get in, I don't know, but I think those above are the sure 7 qualifiers.
I could definitely live with this prediction. I just can't see Portugal not making it... it stands out so much. I'm much more nervous for Ireland and Slovenia.
I cannot believe how Azerbaijan is considered as nq , it is such a chill song. I guess we will have another Chingiz Mustafayev moment on stage.
I don’t *need* Poland in the final but the draw of countries is great for them. So many countries here usually vote for them. So I am expecting Poland in the final. I just hope Raiven pulls it off regardless. I really want it for her.
I want is for Slovenia.
14:04-14:17 was hilarious 😂
(I feel similarly but only bc Australia has a chance and we get Ireland
also, I want to live in a world where your picks qualify 👌😩)
I'm living in a world where at least 2 songs in the first half are screwed and I'm leaning toward Cyprus and Poland. Maybe this year will be the exception but just based on recent history and how casuals operate i sadly don't see every song in the first half qualifying.
Luxembourg is such a wild card, because they have none of their potential voting allies, other than Germany in this semi, but I agree with you that they're in.
Raiven on the fence is not something I need though. I think Slovenia, Ireland and Portugal are fighting for the same two slots, but with Serbia being of such hugh quality, I can see Portugal missing out. I love both songs, but Portugal's qualification was severely on the line last year when they chose to botch the staging - it worked because the song and Mimicat were so good, but if they play it the same way this year, I don't see Portugal qualifying.
All I can say about this semi is that it will be close. So close that you can't really make an argument as to who "deserves" to be the 9th and 10th qualifier. It's all gonna come down to the execution for the last slots and right now the vision is clearer for Raiven and Bambie, than it is for Iolanda imo.
Agreed on the deserved part. The quality is EXTREMELY HIGH this year all around and although I prepared myself for 2 quality songs left behind (at least) I think I’ll feel that hammer when it comes down.
TBF to Portugal, Iolanda’s staging is going to be good. RTP just have to recreate what they did at the NS and they will- so there is certainty there, SLO is still a bit of a wild card TBF.
They literally have Portugal right there? xD The biggest migrant community in Luxembourg is famously portuguese so that works as an advantage for BOTH countries.
@@aangomesbrancoi don't think Lithuania and Poland regularly vote for Ireland and UK, same applies to Albania and Switzerland (other than Gjon's Tears obvs)
Slovenia should get votes from Croatia and Serbia, right? Just historically speaking. So then it just needs like what? 25 more points? Totally doable.
And Germany
To me, there's 3 things needed to Q:
- Casual appeal/massive niche appeal
- Neighbouring support
- Diaspora
You don't need to be the highest on any category, but you still need a decent amount of the 3 to Q. Looking at the borderlines:
Poland has a decent amount of the first but tons of the latter 2
Portugal has none of the first 2 and a bit of the last one.
Serbia has some of the first, a lot of the 2nd and a good amount of the third.
Slovenia is similar to Serbia, but I think with some more casual appeal but less of the other 2.
Australia has the possibility to have a lot of the first, but suffers with the latter 2.
Cyprus has a lot of the first but very little from the last 2.
Ireland is the trickiest. On paper it has really none of the 3 when looking at casuals. But it isn't exactly going for casuals, it's very specific in it's appeal, which helps it a lot. Not sure if enough to Q.
Ultimately, outside the obvious ones that have either all 3 in great amount, lead in one area or are being heavily helped by the EBU to ensure a Q, being the 6 you have as certain Qs minus Serbia, Poland, Slovenia, Serbia and Cyprus seem the likeliest to Q, with Ireland or Australia taking slot 10.
Portugal to me seems as doa as people think Moldova and Iceland are. Yes, it goes very late in the show, but it doesn't matter if people don't pick up the phone. We have seen constantly this year that ballads simply don't do well with the televote in NFs, the song is way too subdued for causals to bother with, and the diaspora in 1 country isn't gonna make it Q. The televote simply doesn't care about songs like this, or Austria 2019 for example, unless the diaspora and/or neighbouring support can be enough to counter it, which Portugal doesn't have this year.
10 million Serbs in the world vs 60 million Portuguese in the world… but Serbia has plenty diaspora and Portugal a little bit… right… 😂
@@dysfunction13 yes, and how many of those actually vote? Especially when the majority of Pt diaspora is concentrated in countries not in semi 1 or not in Europe. The sole exception is Luxembourg, but Portugal will get as many points from there as Moldova will from Portugal.
Besides, that ignores the other two points where Serbia easily beats Portugal so....?
@@ddraven3180 I was just mentioning that in terms of diaspora, by gross numbers, it’s 6x larger for the Portuguese! In terms of neighbour support I completely agree, the constraints regarding the distribution of the diaspora are a reality, for sure! As for being catchy or appealing to the masses… I agree there is a slight edge for Serbia (more repetitive, less intricate composition, easier to follow)… I think Serbia main advantage is the amount of neighbours! I really like Serbian entry, to be honest! It’s among my favourites alongside with France, Switzerland and Greek! 😊 so For me both Serbia and Portugal should qualify…
When will be 2nd semi final predicstion?
Do we need Finland though ? Nope not for me . Do we need it to keep the casuals happy ? Probably 😩
This.
This is how I see it: Slovenia has Croatia and Serbia who might give them 8+ in this semi and I think its a fence qualifier... Poland and Moldova might get votes as well from the Balkans, but are also on the fence, Cyprus is a bit on their own on this semi without Greece, so, considering that, Cyprus is the one that is more on the fence out of all of these. We definitely need to consider how these countries tend to vote.
While it is true, the vote for Serbia and Slovenia might get shockingly regional, they both need to find 20-25 pts from elsewhere to be in the conversation. Serbia should obvs make it with 24 default pts and Raiven probably has like 15-16 pts, obvs Serbian diaspora across Europe is bigger but they've struggled last year with the early running order slot despite some pre-contest hype.
and I agree with this, but I think that one of the reasons why Serbia was a fencer qualifyer last year was the lack of a solid voting block combined with the out of the box performance, this year Serbia doesn’t have any of those, but Slovenia might fit that, although I see the regional voting block supporting
@@brenda4813 also once again performing early is a little bit tricky for Serbia. I think for a cynical standpoint Konstrakta would have been a way safer qualifier.
The difference would be that with Konstrakta we would be counting it as a sealed qualifier even with the early performance. In my opinion, I really don’t see a path on which the Balkans are not qualifying all 3, although Serbia and Slovenia might be on the last places
@@brenda4813 it is possible for one of them to finish agonizingly 11th, although right now I think Portugal is going to be 11th, they should have picked João Borsch to be competitive in this televoting semifinals era
Its funny to watch your prediction and how accurate it is!!!
I’m living in a world where we get a 5/5 split in qualifying from first and second half
i really like polands song this year and i think its more likely to qualify than slovenia, i think its much more accessible. hopefully we can both though!
Yeah, I actually like Poland's song - it's the potential execution that makes me shaky
My prediction of the 5 nqs
Iceland,Moldova,Azerbaijan,Australia and Poland
My current Top 3 in the contest is Austria, Netherlands and Cyprus... And being in the UK, I can vote here, so Cyprus is getting ALL my televotes on the night. 😉
I'm not so sure about Ireland..... I still have a very big doubt, and I don't think that Cyprus is gonna make it for some reason, but will see, anyway great video
Thanks for watching. I was/have been nervous for Cyprus all season long and stand by the fact that we won’t get POL, LUX, and CYP- but Poland seems to be the one I now fear for the execution and the all around momentum
I feel like all three of Serbia, Portugal and Slovenia will qualify. I also will say, reconsider Azerbaijan. It is such a nice chill song in a crazy semifinal. It will definitely stand out and the mugham singing is only gonna help it stand out. I also hate to burst your bubble but Australia is in more danger than you'd probably like. That song is very 'mid', like it doesn't have anything that will catch the attention of the viewers and I don't know who would vote for this. Imo Ukraine, Croatia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Serbia, Portugal, Slovenia are solidly in. Azerbaijan and Finland are probably in. Iceland and Australia are out. Moldova is probably out. Unpopular opinion but I think Poland too is probably out. And then Cyprus and Ireland could go either way.
100%
1. Croatia
2. Ukraine
3. Lithuania
90%
4. Finland
5. Poland (UK, Ireland, Ukraine, Germany, Lithuania will help a lot)
80%
6. Serbia
7. Luxembourg
70%
8. Cyprus
50%
9. Ireland
10. Slovenia (Giving me Iru vibes but Serbia and Croatia will probably help)
Im positive slovenia will qualify. Its masterpiece
I´m not sure if Ireland will make it or if it´s only something for the bublble.
If Ireland was a community favorite (which they aren´t) I´d say yes, but I´m not sure!
I see them as a borderline qualifier but it could also juuuust not make it if the locals just don´t get it😅
Ireland looks Visually Perfect and the Audio was excellent on the second Rehearsal
@@djbillybopdjbillybop2817 keep in mind my comment was pre any rehearsals.
We know their rehearsal pics look great and I am leaning towards a comfortable qualification now
@@thisislaurine That's why I did not comment on any if any Singers, not because I am Irish I said wild youth did not have a chance last year. To be Honest It is a song contest but not anymore which is sad to me as a DJ. I remember Gina G great Track on CD But the Poor Girl was Shocking live I played Bambie and Gina G this morning on my Breakfast Show with Billy Bop as I have a slot in Billy Bops Eurovision Revision during my show at 11 am I do see your Point.
@@djbillybopdjbillybop2817 and the staging didn't change Wild Youth's chances:)
It's a much easier song to stage compared to Doomsday Blue, which means Doomsday Blue had potential to either do quite well but also to end up dead last if it's staged badly.
And obviously it's a much more interesting and outstanding song
@@thisislaurine Bambie will QF
I don’t think Luxembourg is going to make it .. I think Cyprus over it .. Portugal is a definite for me along with Ireland and the other favourites x ❤
Great video as always, Alesia.
See, I'm having a hard time thinking that Serbia will make it because it is in the second slot and the song honestly looks and sounds more like a non-qualifier. I think Cyprus will be in (I don't see it not being in unless the performance doesn't do it), and Poland's diaspora makes me believe that they will be in but maybe that won't be enough. The only certain NQ I can see is Iceland. The rest are really in contention.
If we are going to have a shock NQ, I have a feeling it might actually be Finland. Croatia, Lithuania and MAYBE Ireland are all fishing for the same points as Finland but those acts all have some sophistication about them. ''No Rules'' is comparatively dumbed down and disposable by comparison. It's quirky for the sake of it. Furthermore, don't underestimate the viewers knowing about Joost Klein and Nemo from Switzerland. It's a remote possibility but don't rule it out and don't rule out the fact that that could screw over Windows95Man and his chances of qualifying.
Of all the ''look at me/look at us'' songs and acts this year, Finland's entry is the worst of them and if they can't all qualify, then it might be the end of Windows95Man.
Portugal is the dark horse this year. In the final the juries and public will love the song and performance. ❤🇵🇹
Top 5 for sure!
I think the polish diaspora in Ireland, UK, Iceland and Germany will vote and help out massively. A really good semi final draw for Luna!
Diaspora didn’t do much in 2021.
@@msch7620 Rafal was universally disliked so I wasn't surprised
My prediction for NQs are Cyprus, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Australia and Luxembourg/Ireland. I definitely feel Portugal, Moldova and Slovenia are borderline.
These are my thoughts:
Do we know how many people watch the SF and vote? If the demographic is totally different from the saturday it is going to be difficult to predict. The fandom loves Slovenia and Portugal.
Second thing is (and it sounds harsh) but do we really care about Luxembourg reentering? Some people might but enough to qualify. I have my doubts.
The fact that Slovenia, Croatia en Serbia are in this SF will help them but who cares: they deserve it.
I used to take the diaspora in account but not anymore after last couple of years. Especially not in the SF.
We know Australia has great vocals and might surprise. With Ireland, UK and Cyprus voting?
So Alesia, I guess there is room for all of your 8 songs and even more. Reaching 30k with a channel on ESC and being American? There is only one channel with another American to beat, if I'm right? To be objective maybe isn't the strongest part of a European competition amongst Europeans, haha. And we need you.🤔
This year I think I'm more excited about the SF than ever. With the Televote only this is a big test. It's almost a 'State of Europe' instead of a 'State of play'. Or not.
I really hope Luxembourg, Portugal and Ireland will make it to the GF! Bonus if Azerbaijan makes the cut.
Great vídeo! I think Poland is making It. And maybe Australia or Portugal not
I agree with almost everything but I think Slovenia is in, quite safely
Portugal❤❤❤❤❤❤
I think Croatia will qualifying for the Grand Final of Eurovision Song Contest this year
From when I’m writing this, Eurovision 2024 bracket 1 is happening in 1 hour, let’s see if this is correct
I could see Finland as a shock NQ. I would be devastated if Raiven doesn't make it.
I think people are secretly hoping for that just like they were with Croatia last year, and we all know how that story ended…
@@AlesiaMichelle What if they end up being Latvia 2022
@@GospodinNelson No Rules is a lot more immediate, catchy, visually memorable and memeable. It’s a lot closer to Mama SC (though not quite as bold) than Eat Your Veggies imo.
The problem is that EVERY year you underestimate Cyprus entries. And you don't learn from the past. Cyprus didn't missed with the televoting since 2015 (the last 10 years). Even in 2022 when Cyprus didn't make it to the final, "Ela" was 9th with the televoting which means that with the current voting system it would have passed to the final.
According to the betting experts, Croatia should win by half, but I have some doubts. I think Ukraine will have a lot of support, because people are scattered all over Europe because of the war. I would give 2nd place, no matter how strange it is, to Lithuania and Luktelk. Luktelk can be the dark horse with Greece in Eurovision. 3. Croatia 4. Serbia 5. Slovenia
I agree with your prediction except I think Poland will get in over Cyprus, the running order and diaspora will see poland through over them
I was going back and forth on this but I'm taking a bit of a chance that execution will win out and Cyprus might have the edge. But like I said here: it could go both ways
I think both Cyprus and Luxembourg are in the final, but what bothers me with Cyprus is that they barely qualified in 2019 when they opened the semi and when they realistically had more hype. Since Ireland entered TOP 10 in the winner odds I finally became more confident they're qualifying. Portugal I also feel like they're missing out by a small difference. I think Australia and Slovenia are on the fence, but I'm saying both are making it at the expense of Portugal and Poland. But just for the shock moment, I don't exclude the possibility of Iceland replacing Australia or neither Iceland nor Australia making it and Portugal getting in instead, or Cyprus missing out, and instead we get Portugal and Australia together. If Slovenia doesn't qualify we're probably getting Poland then, but my final qualifiers prediction before rehearsals is let's say *Ukraine* *Croatia* *Lithuania* *Serbia* *Finland* *Ireland* *Luxembourg* *Cyprus* *Slovenia* and *Australia* .
Big Final:
Serbia
Croatia
Slovenia
Ukraine
Lithuania
Portugal
Australia
Ireland
Cyprus
Finnland
❤
It would be so funny if PzE with a their effort produces a NQ (and I like their actual song). Konstrakta was their sensible safe qualifier choice
PZE had tons of safer qualifiers: Zejna, ZORJA, Konstrakta… I think they are making it this year, but there were more solid options in theory given the makeup of songs this year…
K feel like I said that a few times in our PZE analysis convos
@@AlesiaMichelle I kinda disagree on Zorja being safe, I think Teya Dora, Zorja and Hristina would have been in the same ballad league for ordinary televoters who can't manage more than 1 ballad per semi.
Europe are going to be shocked with Australia. I've become aware of what Australia are bringing, and its way too powerful to leave out.
Well I’ve been trying to tell folks this… it’s safer than most in the bubble think
@AlesiaMichelle That's why Australia have been soo quiet this year. I knew there was a reason, and all I can say is that this is a brilliant move by SBS.
As an Australian I feel i have a right to know deets! 😜😜😜
One thing you need to consider more which you mentioned is first half versus second half. And this semi’s faves are more in the first half. Which means a fave or lock from the first half is not going to make. Also, Australia is more on the fence than what you predicted. The video for it is pretty snoozy. And even though Australia knows how to stage, this song is pretty boring.