PROOF that 80% of bowling is luck
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- Опубликовано: 8 фев 2025
- Do we now have proof that bowling is really just down to luck? With some of the breaks we saw at the 2024 PBA Tournament of Champions, it's hard to argue that luck wasn't a huge factor for the eventual winner.
I break down the telecast and discuss whether luck really does play a large part in bowling.
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pba bowling // pba bowling 2024 // pba toc // pba tournament of champions // pba tournament of champions 2024 // pba fox // bowling fox // ej tackett // anthony simonsen // lucky strikes // the right lane // the right lane bowling
That strike not even hitting the headpin is one of the craziest looking strikes I've ever seen
And he damn near did it a second time in that match.
I get maybe one on those per league season. They definitely are rare.
Luck is A factor in bowling for EVERYONE, regardless of their ball speed, average, revs, etc., but to say it’s 80% of the game is a major exaggeration.
Agreed. Even the best of the best need luck from time to time, but by no means are you gonna roll a 279 just by chance.
Yeah, but the problem is, Luck is not distributed evenly... Everyone has a "chance" but is not gifted it. This is why Bowling is not a Olympic sport. Many Athletic Governing bodies over the past 60 years have come to the same conclusion. There are too many variables, and too many uncontrollable luck factors that bowlers cannot take into consideration. It is too hard to give a fair go to everyone and maintain every lane as the same. In other precision games, like golf, you have weather, BUT, you can largely see and take these things into account when playing, and the playing surface always remains the same(everyone plays on the same 18 holes). Whereas in bowling, every lane is different, every pin setter is different, every backboard is different, all the oil is different. So let say you start a tournament, and a country happens to bowl on 3 of the worst lanes in the house with the worst topography, with the least responsive backboards, and with the worst pinsetters that are offsetting pins by a few mm's.... This is the problem. It is WAY too hard to control and maintain fairness, and it would be WAY too hard and expensive, to build new lanes from scratch every major International Event(like the Olympics)...
@@JonHop1so this is not really an accurate take. I'm not sure how familiar you are with bowling, but when in tournaments bowlers move to different pairs throughout the tournament and don't just stay on one pair. Also the oil is the same in each tournament. The same oil machine, same pattern, etc. The only difference would be with the equipment, which is the same in golf because they don't all use the same clubs and balls.
@@AverageBowler Huh? Bud, you have no clue what you are talking about... First off, the oil is NOT the same on each lane... This is a proven fact. This is because of something called "LANE TOPOGRAPHY"... The oil will lay down differently on each lane and play differently... Secondly, in a Tournament, Pros do not bowl equally on all lanes... You may get unlucky and bowl on 4 pairs, all which just happen to have the worst topography, backboards, and pinsetters.. Clearly, you did not read my comment fully.
@@JonHop1Youre just over exaggerating little things. Certain players like EJ and Simo end up making it to the TV finals consistently. So you're saying they just get lucky EVERY single time? There are other players on their lanes right? Why doesn't every player on the "good pair" end up getting to the finals? You just sound like someone that has never been comfortable with taking accountability for their actions and want to place blame of other situations and circumstances instead of accepting your own faults
Another crazy aspect to the finals of the Tournament of Champions was this. Marshall Kent beat the same four players to win this year's ToC that Jason Belmonte beat in the finals of the ToC last year, the odds of which have to be astronomical. First, what are the odds of any four players making it to the finals of the same major championship in two consecutive years, as was the case with Jason Sterner, Matthew Ogle, E.J. Tackett, and Anthony Simonsen. That was amazing enough, but then to have the eventual champion beat the same quartet of players to win the title two years in a row is absolutely astonishing, because those were the four players Belmonte toppled in the finals last year, and Kent beat them to win the ToC this year.
I think we also forget the 40 some odd games that it took the bowlers to get to this point. Once you’re in the step ladder you are at the mercy of luck. But getting there was raw skill
Luck is certainly a big part of bowling, ESPECIALLY in one game matches and TV finals. But there is a reason guys like EJ and Simo make almost every show.
Yes, there is and it is called SKILL. As the bowler's skill level increases, the value of "luck" tends to diminish.
With all of that incredible luck, it's easy to forget that he still made a lot of great shots throughout the telecast, as well as some key plays. That 1-2-7 spare conversion in the 10th in the title match especially. If he misses that, he loses. Congrats to Kent.
I like Kent’s game but that telecast was hard to watch.
That might have been the most bizarre TV finals the PBA's had in many years, from the very first shot right up to the end. And I don't know what was crazier, all the crazy things that happened during the telecast (Sterner opening with four consecutive open frames, Kent throwing one into the channel after 6 consecutive strikes, etc.), or the fact that Marshall Kent beat the same four players that Jason Belmonte beat in the finals of the ToC last year (though not in the same order), because the odds of that happening are astronomical.
It was a rough one for sure.
Last years 2023 PBA finals was much better. This one was weird.
If it's 80 percent luck, why did the same four guys end up in the show 2 years in a row? They were all lucky, again? Marshall bowled on a tough condition, overcame a gutter (a lucky gutter?), made his spares, and had one lucky strike. If any two hander gets a lucky strike, Belmo, Simo, Ogle, Kroll, everyone stands slackjawed in amazement for some reason. A one hander finally getting one lucky break against a two hander is no reason for a video. E J missed a ten pin and was still talking about it in the tenth. Marshall was in the present. It was a great victory and long overdue.
The scores were very low all week! The lanes were brutal with the pattern the PBA laid down. I loved to watch this. It’s a major and it should be tough period!
80 percent is luck.but you have to be good to be lucky!
Or is it lucky to be good?
@@jasonboness3871 no
Not necessarily. There was an 80 year old woman that bowls at my house that bowled a 300 with 4 jersey strikes and 2 strikes that did not even hit the head pin. She just had a completely lucky game. She is a 160avg in league.
@@JonHop1that is complete bull shit
Such an awesome show and great performance by Marshall … Simonsen may have bowled a better game but when it’s your day, it’s your day!
Especially for someone who came close to quitting and has finally realized his potential after ten years on tour
Luck is absolutely a factor in bowling. Definitely wouldn't say it's the most important factor though.
or even close to 80% lmao
I watched the telecast and have to say, Mr Kent is the first bowler that I ever saw who actually won a major by being lucky. My recollection is that he had at least 7 strikes he shouldn’t have gotten. Having said that, he still made the telecast and so that did give him a chance. EJ was hurt, otherwise, I think he would have won.
Bowling is very similar to poker when it comes to luck. In the short term or small sample size, it's about 50-80% luck. In the long term, it's about 1-10% luck. There's a reason the same names keep popping up at the top of the field over and over again.
There is an element of luck in every sport....But I do think luck is a bigger factor in bowling than it is in other sports. I also think there’s something to be said for the old phrase “the harder I work the luckier I get.”
I've heard multiple pros say, "when you throw a perfect game, you got lucky somewhere along the way"
Belmonte's perfect games are definitely luck...
well it's no different than how matt o'grady won the TOC in 2018 with his (Hard work beats Talent Every time)
EJ flags the ten pin in the 5th and does Rodney Dangerfield in Caddy Shack. "Ooh my arm, my arm! I think it's broken!" Never heard about it until then.😂 That lucky strike bothered EJ and made him miss it, not an injury. You also forgot to mention that Marshall was gluing his split ring finger together, the most important besides the thumb, and wrapping it during the whole telecast.
The Right Lane, That was an awesome Analysis Video from the 2024 Tournament of Champions. Also, It was a Close Title Match between Anthony Simonsen and Marshall Kent. Also, The Oil Pattern was difficult in the 1st Match. Also, The Breaks on the Pba Tour are the key factor in the events especially the Majors on the Pba Tour.
Aj johnson and Marshall Kent is two of the most unexpected bowler i seen. The ball always do something crazy eather it when into the gutter or underhooks or overhooks
Luck is there, as in many other sports (a tennis ball bouncing to your opponents side of the net as one example) and in the case of bowling , it is a factor that can be at least minimized ... for example playing more games. Due to the constrains of television of course the stepladder format is one that luck can make a big impact, and this can be revisited ... taking in consideration the complexities of finding a format that is still suitable and etertains on TV ... this being said, make no mistake, after a whole week of bowling, luck has little to do with whom we see bowling at the finals week after week ... the first 5-10 guys after a week of bowling got there with skill.
I thought this was a fantastic tournament. Very happy for Marshal Kent. Even with the luck, I believe it was a well deserved victory.
In my own bowling experience. I’ve found that most strikes are sometimes the result of what we think is a bad shot.
If you throw the ball correctly such that it hits the head pin then deflects to the three (or two, if you’re lefty), you will strike almost every time. The greats are skilled enough to do that with some regularity.
Bowling has a degree of variance. Thats why qualifying and match play involves dozens of games. Other sports like basketball and baseball also have some randomness which is why there are 82 and 162 game seasons, respectively, but no one ever talks about those sports having "luck".
I mean he still hit the pocket. It was just the 3-6 pocket. lol
Imagine hitting only the ten pin and still getting a strike on the shot.
Crushed the 3-6
The equipment we bowl with now produces more random results than ever before. For instance, pocket 7-10s were a rarity in the past. Now, I'm guaranteed to see a couple every league night. Perhaps, limits should be changed regarding ball surfaces and asymmetric cores. Reading and reacting to the conditions should be more about changing your physical game as opposed to drilling a new ball every time you leave a flat 10.
My team played crucial playoffs this weekend for swedish top tier league. In total it was 18 games. My teammade left 7-10 10 times those games. And 8-10 on top of that
It really shows how speed is a huge factor in increasing luck due to pin action.
There were a handful of players battling for the last spot to make the show too, and Kent was already full leprechaun by then. He and his family were SO emotional at the end, they were all crying at full power. I mean snot drippin, red faced, I cant even speak kind of cry. Marshall has waited so very long to win too. But when its your day, it just is. so despite a few efforts to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, he won anyways. Congratulations!
To those who think its all luck, please demonstrate in person. I practice every Tues morning around 10am at Kennedy. Bring plenty of cash in 50s or 100's, or loose nickels., and bring your luck. I'll pay for the lanes too!
No lucky weapons, luck may not bite, poop, or be bigger than your thumb.
Luck is like quantum spin or Schrödinger's cat. First you must roll the dice, only then is it knowable whether it is good luck or bad.
Luck comes in two flavors...good and bad. If you analyze the really good shots that result in taps, you will often find that the head pin or one of the other pins are slightly off spot. What's the difference between a bucket or 2-4-8-10 and a light mixer strike? The placement of the head pin is often the difference. If it is on spot or maybe 1/16th inch back, it's a strike. If it's 1/16th inch forward (toward the bowler), it's a bucket or worse. Physics and chaos theory place a randomness into the game that is much more pronounced than any other game. That being said, in the end, the best bowlers almost always rise to the top.
Earl Anthony has often been quoted as saying that bowling is a game of mistakes, and it's a guy that makes less mistakes than his opponent that wins. You can look at that as absolutely correct in this case, although Marshall really threw some super poor shots and probably on any other day would not have had a chance in hell at winning. EJ probably would have won had he not flagged that ten pin, but you could tell it was going to miss it, as he did not post his shots and fully extend to his Target like he had been doing in the two previous telecasts where he made the show and won.
Luck in bowling doesn’t get you to the TV finals
It absolutely can... But, that is not to say that there is no skill involved. You have to be a great bowler, and take advantage of your lucky breaks to win tournaments.
I’ll be honest. It was a little upsetting being there in the title match. It seemed like Simo has no fans left anymore. I was at this event, and everytime he would throw a good shot the crowd would chant for Kent
Marshall may have had a luckier win than Boog.
Luck is something out of the bowlers control that they can not influence. Not alot of that in bowling.
Luck is more like in poker. You can be highly skilled and get your self in the best case scenarios possible. An example of luck would be me going all in with AA vs AK on a A K K flop and the opponent rivers a K for quads. That situation is totally outside any control the player may have.
Although very small and nuanced, the second the bowling ball leaves the bowlers hand, whatever pin is left standing is 99% the players fault, unless a freak occurance, like a pin falling and freakishly pops back up, imho, that is the luck factor.
/rant
Luck as a factor becomes less meaningful with a larger sample size. Everyone who made the show already gave themselves a chance to win. Every bowler knows one game matches are a crapshoot, but they were the best five in an elite field with 42 games thrown. He absolutely deserves his title.
Over time, luck will even itself out. Some days you can’t carry pocket hits and others you’re tripping out everything on bad shots.
"I know nothing of luck, but the more I practice the luckier I get" - Ingemar Stenmark
Jason Couch was just lucky to win this 3 years in a row? Why those odds must be astronomical!!
Wow, you really put a lot of work into this video, my new clickbait video is going to be " Bowling is 20% bad luck" and will be 5 seconds long.
Being good makes it a lot easier for luck to kick in.
I really dont think alot of this is luck... if a player leaves a 10 pin, solid 8, solid 9, ringing 7 etc, there is a reason those pins are left. Entry angle, speed, etc. Luck is more, having the 10 bounce out of the pit to pick up a 7 10, or, i guess, marshels strike when he missed the pocket.
Just cause one bowler is carrying and one bowler is hitting the pocket leaving solid 9s isnt luck.
Luck plays a small role in bowling overall.
You have to be good to be lucky and lucky to be good.
Luck is a small element of high level bowling. League bowling is based on handicapped averages statistically proving it isn't luck. Our league has 40 teams. The same team won first ($20k) the last two years. They are the best team and average over 225. The PBA competitions have mostly the same best bowlers out of very many. Luck my butt! Mr. Kent wasn't great but won because the other bowlers choked.
I like Marshall Kent a lot, but I have to admit, he did not deserve to win based on how he played. Congrats to him though for pulling out one of the luckiest series of games tv has seen.
I know we all need that bag 💰 but please find something better to title the video. 80% is nowhere near the amount that bowling is, i'd say about 5% on a houseshot, and about 7% on sports shot. If you read the lanes and throw it accordingly you will throw 190+ 99% of the time.
That is called a sh*thouse strike. I’ve thrown one…lol
I swear, all the messengers went to Kent and no one else this game! In fact, did Kent even get a flush strike?
Life lesson….. The harder you work at anything, the luckier you get.
If bowling is 80% luck why do I never bowl 200s? Seems rather silly, true there are good and bad breaks like anything else, but to say that even a large part of it is luck is just a denial of reality.
i think Simo should stop being no 1 seed in majors and we will see a new record in 7-8 years, maybe sooner
marshall was just insanely lucky not to lose every game
Bowling is 80% mental
That strike your talking about is KNOWN as the left domino strike. in my opinion it is the LUCKIEST strike in bowling because its the ONLY way to strike without ever touching the head pin with your ball. I've tried to get this left DOMINO & right DOMINO strike purposelessly just missing the head pin to the left & to the right & can NEVER do it when I try it on purpose. I have it on video of me getting the right & left DOMINO strikes but NEVER did i EVER do it on purpose. its a vary lucky strike for sure & the harder you throw the ball when throwing it straight the better odds you can get it to do it. I can't throw a bowling ball that hard though. Im under 18MPH most of the time with light balls but with the heavier balls like 12lbs & up I can't get those balls much more then 14MPH if I'm lucky so I NEED to be a more skillful bowler over a power bowler who can reach speeds over 20 MPH with any ball weight.
There is an element of luck in any sport.
This title is just click bait. Nobody who knows bowling would claim such a thing.
I would say luck is more involved in winning the tournament
I was waiting for simonsen to take him out to the parking lot after winning on a brooklyn strike
@iceman5117 That would be hilarious. Kent lives in the gym and pudgy little Simo is gonna take him out to the parking lot. HahahahaHAAAAH! You so silly.
@@zedsodead let's not kid ourselves into thinking that anyone on tour is a paragon of human fitness
Your video is way off, take into consideration your rev rate will never be the same every throw, your tilt will never be the same, your speed, board target, breakpoint, ringer lift, pin placement or the slide will never be the same. Make good shots within your target and your strike percentage will be good. Thats why theres good breaks and bad breaks.
Does luck factor in? Of course it does. Every sport has at least a small percentage of luck involved. That being said, anyone that suggests bowling (or any other sport for that matter) is all luck, is probably; 1. Extremely ignorant. 2. More than likely not very good at bowling.
Okay luck is evolved in everything that we do in life what's no matter what if you have no talent to put yourself in that situation where that if you do get lucky that you can win so I would say no it's it's it's it's it's probably 80% skill and 20% luck
It’s called physics…not luck
I do believe god exists because he said "Marshall, you shall win today"
i think that bowling is luck, however the better the bowler the better the percent chance of luck if you will ;)
Marshall better be buying Simo and EJ for the next year. He did not deserve that win. I guess he learned from Boog Krol on how to win by Brooklyning to death. Embarrassing win. But hey he got 100g.
Why? Simo never got a lucky strike? Marshall had to make a tricky 1,2,7 spare in the tenth to win. Who knew spares were still important?
@@zedsodead my point was that was the most horrible way to win a Major. Gutter, then a 3 count, it was like his first time in TV. Sad to watch. But hey he got the W. So that's all that matters I guess.
Wrong, if it were true, belmo, tacket, Earl Anthony, Walter ray should all be buying lottery tickets, this is dumb.
Why the f*ck is Sterner bouncing up and down in his approach?
80% luck 😂 in that case, an amateur should be able to beat a professional about 40% of the time, right?
Luck is what happened to the four men (Mark Roth, John Mazza, Jess Stayrook and Anthony Neuer) who converted the 7-10 split on TV.
And here's a good topic idea: The 5 lowest scores ever on TV. 3 I can think of were Tom Daugherty in 2011 (100), Steve Jaros in 1992 (129) and Joe Staton in 1983 (133).
Who wants to bet Danielle McEwan will come sniffing around now. I thought I saw her shoving Kents current girlfriend out of the way at the end of the show.😅
Luck is real n this sport
utter nonsense clickbait tile, congrats...
You get what you hit...it's that simple
Stupid heading and no proof
No luck is like 10 percent or less.