You can't consider any pairing of answers except for A and D together because in order to choose multiple answers, they all have to be equivalent. If you choose both A and B, you are automatically wrong because if the answer is A, then B is wrong, and if B is correct, then A is wrong. In order to choose multiple answers, they ALL have to be correct. I hope this clears things up. (If I get anything wrong, feel free to point it out so we can both learn something 😉)
No one said it had to be uniformly random. If I say my randomizer is a coin flip between C and B, then I'd get C 50% of the time. So I pick C as my answer.
Curious.. you didn't accept the implicit assumption that the alternatives must follow an uniform distribution, but implicitly assumed an uniform distribution on the coin flip
@@ron-math Wouldn't that use the assumption that both A and D don't affect the final result? In a general case, if you have A, B, C, D and pick randomly one of them you will get the right answer 25% of the time, if you just flip between B and C you will still only get the right answer 25% of the time depending on the final outcome
@@weeb5682 "randomly choose an alternative" doesn't need to be "randomly choose an alternative with the restriction that every alternative must have the same probability of being chosen by your random process". And if you don't add this implicit assumption it is possible for a correct answer to exist So if your random process to choose an alternative has 50% probability to choose C, 30% to choose A, 15% to choose B and 5% to choose D, then C would be corect. If your process has 90% probability of A, 10% probability ofC and 0% probability for the rest, then the correct answer would be B. You can think of ways to make any answer be the correct one or none of them be the correct one
@@lucascaracas4781 I don't think that is correct. If the probability of choosing the correct answer is 100% then all alternatives possibly selected at random would have to be 100%. Because of this I think each distribution can only make all the alternatives with same value be correct at the same time
The problem is, like with the Monty Hall Problem, there are unstated assumptions which must be wrestled with. Suppose what the game designers deemed to be "correct" was a single letter: A, B, C, or D. You are then asked to pick an answer to the question at random, and you pick A, B, C, or D. The correct probability is therefore 25% so you should win if you say "25%, final answer" The fact that there are two instances of "25%" now becomes irrelevant. :-) That's MY interpretation of this question!
What are the underlying assumptions in the Monty Hall problem? I solved it by coding a solution, and as soon as I coded it it was apparent to my why the answer is what it is.
@@peezieforestem5078 The game host knows the correct answer and, therefore, will always open a wrong door. he does not choose one of the remaining doors at random
@asdfqwerty14587 Maybe you've heard a modified version. The version I've heard was something like "After you choose a door, the game host reveals another door to reveal a , and gives you an opportunity to switch". It is obvious that the host would not open the door with the big prize, but I've yet to hear a version that explicitly says that
@@asdfqwerty14587 Not always. Later versions address this, but if you read the most famous version, from Marilyn Vos Savant's _Parade_ column, it's short and sweet, thus has unstated assumptions. 😎
@@RossoAmareno i once had a professor that had all the right answers to be A, but then you had to explain your logic, so it didn't really do that much for me
If you try to solve the problem, you aren't answering the question, because it tells you to choose randomly. Roll a d4, that's your answer. Wait, or should you actually roll a d3???
I figured that this was simply a more complicated way of stating the Russell paradox before I watched. Then I see that is what you explain, and laugh at your final joke. thanks.
You could probably categorize this as a type error. A and D have the probability for "picking an answer that's correct" while C has "picking an answer that describes what's correct." A and D are understood by referencing C in 1 step, but C is understood by referencing itself through A and D in 2 steps. TLDR, 1 is not equal to 2. Allowing this interpretive inconsistency though, C is correct.
The answer is 0%. This isn’t a question, because every question has to have to have an answer. And without an answer, it’s impossible to be correct. So 0%.
Ok so here's my interpretation By definition, "Random" is just that. Random. And by the nature of the gameshow, there's only 1 answer. (Case 2 and Case 3 are irrelevant). Now. "Random" picks a number from 1 to 4, regardless of the answers themselves. Therefore the answer is 25%. There is zero world where the answer is anything except for 25%. Where the supposed "paradox" comes in, is not the random, but the intentional. This is because there are 2 25%s, both A and D. And you know that the answer is 25%. But as defined earlier, only 1 answer is correct (by the nature of the gameshow), so you have a 1-in-2 chance of picking the "correct" 25%, which leads your odds to being 50%. But its only 50% because you know the answer, not because you're picking randomly. The answer is still 25%, even if your odds are 50/50. Knowing the answer makes your odds no longer true random (they exclude 2 of the original 4 answers). -> 100% know the answer is 25%, regardless of what happens, 50% odds of intentionally choosing the 25%, Final answer does not change. idk if I explained that properly. -> Sure you can "Pick randomly" between the 2 25%s, but that still means nothing, as the original question is asking "If you pick the answer randomly", which includes all 4. Picking randomly between 2 answers is not picking randomly between all 4, and therefore is completely irrelevant, your odds are still 25% picking randomly, and 50% picking intentionally. Basically what I'm trying to say is the question itself is flawed, as it is impossible to pick the answer at random. You're self-referring to an impossible condition. Humans are not random. Neither are computers. Unless you pull out a quantum computer nothing is truly random. What the question SHOULD be, is "what are the odds of getting this question right if you chose an answer intentionally" There's your paradox. -> If you pick an answer intentionally, there's a 25% chance of getting it right -> But because there are 2 25%s, and you're choosing intentionally, the odds are now 50/50 -> If you chose 50/50 knowing this, then there's a 100% chance you get it right -> Except 100% isn't an answer, so there's a 0% chance you get it right -> But knowing this there's a 100% chance you chose 0%, making it the wrong answer -> so if 0% is wrong, then it's one of the other 3. -> picking with intention, your odds are now 1/3, which isnt an option either, so you pick 0% -> and so on -> knowing that this gets stuck in an infinite paradox, you simply ignore it. Break out of the paradox, one IS correct, so your odds are back to 25% -> and now you're just stuck in the bigger paradox, which drags you back into the smaller one by force -> 25% leads you to the 50%, 50% to the 100%, 100% to 0%, you get the point. (This is still with nature of the gameshow meaning there's only 1 correct answer by definition)
c is correct because neither the question nor the amount of answers have been specified, so the answer is either right or wrong until all variables are known and a more accurate percentage can be applied (i have no idea what im talking about)
First of all, the question has been specified. It's self-referential, it says "this" question. Secondly, if there weren't any information given, that doesn't mean the probability is 50%. Probabilities don't start at 50% there still exists an actual probability that you just don't know. We don't know if aliens exist, that doesn't mean that there is at any time a 50% chance that I'll meet an alien
1. If the meaning of the question is, "ABSTRACTLY, randomly to choose an answer to a 4-multiple-choice question, what are the odds of choosing correctly?", then either A or D satisfies. 2. If the question is to be understood literally and self-referentially, it is in the same class as a request to produce a perfectly spherical cube; that is, it is nonsense, it is a defective question, and, metaphorically, a coredump waiting to happen unless an exception is thrown. It is NOT merely a paradox, it is just wrong. And, BTW, not entitled to an answer: if on an engineering exam, the only possible fair scoring would be to award full credit ONLY for failing to answer, or for citing the defect, if there are means to do so.
the correct answer is C, the chance to hit it randomly is 25%, which i can randomly hit 50% of the time, so not randomly i choose C. makes perfect sense to me.
The point of who wants to be a millionaire isn't to be self-consistent, it's to pick the answers designated as "correct" by the show's producers. So I'd go with 50% cuz it seems like the least bullshit one
The answer is A xor D and it's actually consistent. Basically by some magic, define A correct and D incorrect (even if they are both 25%, they don't have to be both valid answers.) So if we say, A is always correct, B,C,D is always incorrect, then randomly you have 25% chance of choosing A so A is actually consistent. The same can be said for D so it's either A or D but we don't know which, and never both.
There's an underlying assumption that Ron made, which I didn't. I didn't assume that the percentages following the colons were answers to any particular question. For example, A, B, C, and D might have been answers about four different questions, such as A What is the interest rate on a simple interest loan paying $1.25 per dollar after one year? B What is the interest rate on a simple interest rate paying $1.00 per dollar after one year? C What is the probability of getting heads when you toss a coin? D What is the interest rate on a simple interest loan paying $150 per dollar after two years?
The question states that the percentages were answers to the question itself. That's not an assumption, the use of "this" forbids any other interpretation. "If you choose an answer to *THIS* question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?". Not _"the following_ question", or _"a_ question" but _"this_ question".
That doesn't really make sense. If the percentages are in reference to some other question (which we don't see) then it's impossible to know which number is correct, because we don't even know the question being asked. You just turned it from a paradox to an impossible question.
Given 4 choices it is 25% based on the distribution. 5 choices gives a normal distribution centered around C at over 60%. That is why they give 4 answers.
@@dan-us6nk It's another paradox. If all his statements in the videos are false then the statement stating the falsity is also false, meaning it is true. But if it is true then by its meaning, it is false at the same time.
Why can't 50% be the correct option. Reason: The answer can never be 0% because there has to be a right answer. Both A and D are the same (25%) options so they can be treated as one option only. Therefore, in reality, there are only two options, which are 50% and 25%. Since, there are two choices, there is a 50% chance (option C) of you getting the right answer. My logic might be dumb but please correct me if i am wrong anywhere.
The content of the answer does not matter. The only thing that matters is that you do make a choice and at radnom. The correct answer is whichever the test writers chose to make the correct answer. So, on a multiple choice question with 4 answers there is a 25% chance of getting the right answer at random.
The way i would have worked through this is considering how i would guess if i didn't know what the question is, only that it is multiple choice with one correct answer and the 4 answers before me are the choices. I would have ruled out the non-unique answers, as they could not logically be correct and incorrect at the same time, and then chosen randomly from the two remaining answers, so the answer would be C.
I can't help but think this is in some ways similar to the rigid body into the barn at close to light speed thought experiement in special relativity where the only way you can explain what is happening is to make the statement that "rigid bodies don't actually exist" (and collapse in such a circumstance). Similar in that - none of the answers you might want to give to the question work, and the only real answer is the 'our initial assumptions must be invalid in some way'. That's in some ways similar. Some sense.
So what happened in the show? Did the guy pick an answer or choose to walk away and what answer was shown as the correct answer afterwards as I am sure that they always show the correct answer even if the person decides to walk away.
The 4th approach is actually consider one answer is correct or two answers are correct (A and C). But the problem is the answer to that approach is 37.5%
This is like answering "What's 1+1? A) 0 B) 1 C) 2 D) 2 The answer is C and D. But if it says there's one correct answer, than the paper is wrong. In this video's case, the correct answer is 25% chance. If there are two options for "25%", assuming that the paper says there is only one correct answer, then the paper is wrong. However, I perfectly understand the video, makes sense. In this case, like the video says, it is a "self reflection paradox". But if you want to solve problems in real life, then the correct answer is 25%, no matter if it gives you two options for the right answer.
Trick question. It would be 25% but you have a 50% chance of picking 25% and a 25% chance of picking 50% making those 2 paradoxical. And a 25% chance of picking 0% which is also contradictory. THERE IS NO CORRECT ANSWER HERE.
well there's a difference between choosing an answer and picking one randomly. you have to choose an answer that aligns with the result of picking randomly, where it doesn't matter what the answers are, but it does matter that two of them are the same. You have to assume that the answer that is labeled "correct" is just an assignment, rather than a logical truth in and of itself. So, the cases are two right answers and two wrong answers: 50% three wrong answers and one right answer: 25% so... one of the answers should be 37.5% lol.
The answer is C, because if you randomly pick C it's still the incorrect answer. But you aren't randomly picking one, you're intentionally choosing one, which means you can intentionally choose C as the correct answer and be correct, even if when you randomly choose it it is incorrect.
@@benkunze4582 Yes, but it doesn't tell you TO pick randomly. It's asking what your odds of picking correctly IF you pick randomly. Your odds if you were to pick randomly are 0% because none of the answers can be correct if you pick at random.
It cannot be b. And it cannot be a or d because that would mean there are two correct answers. It cannot be B because the chance would be 33% not 50%, nor the normal 25% because two answers are the same.
Isn't the answer just 0%? If you have to choose an answer randomly, it's impossible to be correct. So, given that I get to choose in a non-random manner, my answer is B.
I ot 2 answers that aren't on the board for case one. I got either no solution or 3/8. I got the first one if case one is truly a self refrential paradox, assuming there isn't I considered the question like this. There is one correct answer but of the 4 options, 2 are the same, assuming so, the chance of you pick a value which represents the answer (I.E. 0%, 25% or 50%) is a 1/2 chance. Also the chance of you picking a letter answer (I.E. A,B,C or D) which is 1/4 with these being not indepedent, you average both. (1/2 + 1/4)/2 = 3/8 chance. I know it doesn't add up well, but i just thought it was an intresting way to look at the problem.
The answer is 31.25% since we have two answers that are the same, 50% of the answers. And then 2 answers which have only one of them. So, given that these are independent, (1/4)(1/4) + (1/2)(1/4) + (1/4)(1/2) = 0.3125 = 31.25% So the answer is 25% because 0% of the answers are correct.
idk if it's correct or not but I found C) 50%. Here is my approach: For example an answer is considered correct. Our chance to get right is 25% but there are 2 25%(A and C) so, i have 50% chance to get A or C right (idk which one of them assigned as a correct answer on system but it's 1/2)
@@catpoisonlover not for the version in the video, as he explained this version has no correct answer. For the other version of this question that I saw (a-0.25; b-0.5; c-0.33...; d-0.25) then 0 is the correct answer because the probability of guessing 0 is 0. The question is essentially "For what probability measure, q, is P({you randomly guess q}) = q?" and 0 is the only solution to that equation.
C is damn close to reality, everything you said in the video is obstensibly true but people still tend to pick C and you average a 50% success ratio with any random test set
You used an image of Who Wants to be a Millionaire at the start. In that show, wrong answers are more wrong than no answers, because wrong answers make you fall back to the last checkpoint while no answers makes you fall back to the last answered question.
Weil die Antworten A und D gleich sind, können also auch mehrere Antworten (oder keine) gewählt werden. Dadurch gibt es 16 Möglichkeiten. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist daher 1/16. Es ist also keine der Antworten richtig 😊. Wenn mehrere Antworten nicht zulässig sind, sind A und D offensichtlich falsch und man hat eine 50/50 Chance zwischen B und C => Antwort C wäre dann richtig.
I would just say that the question is wrongly constructed ngl, you have 2 same answers and as you said, you need to guess number of correct answers. Its just wrongly worded. It would work if we replaced one of 25s with anything else though, but then again it wouldn't be a paradox anymore
@@ron-math Okay, so: 1) Answering 25% is wrong because that would be a 50% chance 2) Answering 50% is wrong because that would be a 25% chance 3) Answering 0% is wrong because that's a 25% chance too Thus all answers are wrong, meaning there's a 0% chance of getting it right, meaning B (0%) is right. Now, why does this work without entering into a paradox feedback? Easy, you need to see the answer from an inside point of view from an outside point of view. While answering 0% would be wrong →right →wrong →right →... 🔄, it is ultimately wrong, which from an outside perspective makes it right, being the only wrong correct answer!
If you randomly pick A or D, then it is correct that you have a 25% chance to pick C. If you randomly pick C, then it is correct that you have a 50% chance to pick A or D. If you randomly pick B, then you have chosen a non sequitur that does not describe any part of the problem. If B were "chicken" you'd run into the same situation, but it would be more obvious. You are making the problem impossible by assuming that you must be able to evaluate it analytically. You have to observe how the dice roll interacts with the problem to understand it, no different than how a PID controller works. Real life is messy like this.
I agree it's a lie, it can be only multiple-choice no-correct answer question and the chance for no-answer to be true is 6.25%. Maybe think about it next time?
If everything you said in this video is a lie, then that means that this statement itself is a lie too, meaning that this statement actually means, "Everything I said in this video is true." But if that's the case, that means that the statement itself is a lie, meaning that this statement ACTUALLY means, "Everything I said in this video is a lie." This statement is self-contradictory and so it doesn't make any sense.
An excellent but useless application of logic. The question states that you are to pick randomly, not determine the correct answer. To do this, you need to know how many answers are correct, and how many you may pick from. Since the first is not given as a concrete value, then it is impossible to answer: no further analysis is required.
Could you help me understand a little?Why would it be C, these stats could apply in multiple cases, such as A and B are 25% or different situations like this.
Many multiple choice questions are poorly thought out and poorly written. Unhappily, sometimes important decisions are made on the basis of the results from poorly written MCQ.
0:51 Consider both A and D.
Wait does that mean you have to consider the possibility of choosing all variations of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 answers?
You can't consider any pairing of answers except for A and D together because in order to choose multiple answers, they all have to be equivalent. If you choose both A and B, you are automatically wrong because if the answer is A, then B is wrong, and if B is correct, then A is wrong. In order to choose multiple answers, they ALL have to be correct. I hope this clears things up. (If I get anything wrong, feel free to point it out so we can both learn something 😉)
Don't quite understand... But I think this implies that one is still correct?
the answer is to use your 50/50 lifeline and hope it doesnt remove C
Wait wouldn't the lifeline removing one of the answers make the odds out of 3 instead of 4 so all would be wrong anyway (if you remove b)
@@ILostMyMainLol it's a 50/50 lifeline, it removes 2 options
@@RubyPiec oh I didn't know that, thanks
use the audience one and put the pain on everyone else
Yes
C because a wise gamer once said "If it ain't 100% critical rate, it's always 50/50"
Focus Blast.
@@twilightsilver623030/70
More like focus miss
@@orangehazzy.8286 this
I believe it was "If it's not a hundred percent accurate, it's fifty percent accurate"
50% because you either choose right or wrong. (just a joke)
why are you scared to make jokes
thank god some irl nerd emoji didn’t come and correct you in the replies like it usually happens
@@infinityyworks Actually 🤓
ez solution: only a is correct. a and d both show 25% but only a is correct. its coded in the program like that.
Haha. Could be.
So, what if you choose a, but the programmed correct answer is d. But if you choose d, the programmed correct answer will be a
No one said it had to be uniformly random. If I say my randomizer is a coin flip between C and B, then I'd get C 50% of the time. So I pick C as my answer.
Great example of such a distribution.
Curious.. you didn't accept the implicit assumption that the alternatives must follow an uniform distribution, but implicitly assumed an uniform distribution on the coin flip
@@ron-math Wouldn't that use the assumption that both A and D don't affect the final result? In a general case, if you have A, B, C, D and pick randomly one of them you will get the right answer 25% of the time, if you just flip between B and C you will still only get the right answer 25% of the time depending on the final outcome
they said "choose an answer randomly" not "choose an answer UNIFORM randomly". Taking that into account, A, C, and D can all be correct.
I feel like arguing today, care to explain what you mean here?
@@weeb5682 "randomly choose an alternative" doesn't need to be "randomly choose an alternative with the restriction that every alternative must have the same probability of being chosen by your random process". And if you don't add this implicit assumption it is possible for a correct answer to exist
So if your random process to choose an alternative has 50% probability to choose C, 30% to choose A, 15% to choose B and 5% to choose D, then C would be corect. If your process has 90% probability of A, 10% probability ofC and 0% probability for the rest, then the correct answer would be B. You can think of ways to make any answer be the correct one or none of them be the correct one
@@ChongFrisbee Or you could just choose A, C or D at random, which makes the answer you choose right, no matter what
@@lucascaracas4781 I don't think that is correct. If the probability of choosing the correct answer is 100% then all alternatives possibly selected at random would have to be 100%. Because of this I think each distribution can only make all the alternatives with same value be correct at the same time
Lawyers are needed in math 😂
My answer is Segmentation fault (core dumped)
Let’s flip a coin. Heads I’m right, tails you’re wrong.
everything i said in this video is a lie.
including what i just said
and what i just said
and what i just said
and what i just said
…
My friend gets it.
Liar's paradox?
So in the everything said in the video is a lie
Lu lm ob9i
An infinite regress
Me who thought choosing C on my multiple choice tests gives me a 50% chance of getting the question right
The problem is, like with the Monty Hall Problem, there are unstated assumptions which must be wrestled with. Suppose what the game designers deemed to be "correct" was a single letter: A, B, C, or D. You are then asked to pick an answer to the question at random, and you pick A, B, C, or D. The correct probability is therefore 25% so you should win if you say "25%, final answer" The fact that there are two instances of "25%" now becomes irrelevant. :-) That's MY interpretation of this question!
What are the underlying assumptions in the Monty Hall problem? I solved it by coding a solution, and as soon as I coded it it was apparent to my why the answer is what it is.
@@peezieforestem5078 The game host knows the correct answer and, therefore, will always open a wrong door. he does not choose one of the remaining doors at random
@@ChibiNyan That was always explicitly stated in the problem though. It's not an assumption if the problem tells you that it's the case.
@asdfqwerty14587 Maybe you've heard a modified version. The version I've heard was something like "After you choose a door, the game host reveals another door to reveal a , and gives you an opportunity to switch". It is obvious that the host would not open the door with the big prize, but I've yet to hear a version that explicitly says that
@@asdfqwerty14587 Not always. Later versions address this, but if you read the most famous version, from Marilyn Vos Savant's _Parade_ column, it's short and sweet, thus has unstated assumptions. 😎
Me in exam: A A A B B D C A A C
A B A C A D A B A
like abracadabra
Bro put 3 A's after eachother
@@RossoAmareno i once had a professor that had all the right answers to be A, but then you had to explain your logic, so it didn't really do that much for me
@@San-lh8us They should have made only one of the answers not A just to mess with people
If you try to solve the problem, you aren't answering the question, because it tells you to choose randomly. Roll a d4, that's your answer. Wait, or should you actually roll a d3???
A d3 would give you a probability of 33.3% - so is that the actual true answer to the question? 🤔
What is the probability you get A and / or D on a d4?
d4 d5 Bf4 Accelerated London
I imagine that after they answer they roll a D4, and if B comes up its treated as C.
I figured that this was simply a more complicated way of stating the Russell paradox before I watched. Then I see that is what you explain, and laugh at your final joke. thanks.
Certified "what" moment
"This sentence is false" with extra steps.
I want to answer B because that moves the paradox on to the marker.
You could probably categorize this as a type error. A and D have the probability for "picking an answer that's correct" while C has "picking an answer that describes what's correct." A and D are understood by referencing C in 1 step, but C is understood by referencing itself through A and D in 2 steps. TLDR, 1 is not equal to 2. Allowing this interpretive inconsistency though, C is correct.
That s some 5d shit.
The answer is 0%.
This isn’t a question, because every question has to have to have an answer. And without an answer, it’s impossible to be correct. So 0%.
Manim is great
B they expect you to give a reason as to why you gave a specific answer making it so that if you just randomly gave an answer itd be always incorrect.
Ok so here's my interpretation
By definition, "Random" is just that. Random. And by the nature of the gameshow, there's only 1 answer. (Case 2 and Case 3 are irrelevant).
Now. "Random" picks a number from 1 to 4, regardless of the answers themselves. Therefore the answer is 25%.
There is zero world where the answer is anything except for 25%.
Where the supposed "paradox" comes in, is not the random, but the intentional. This is because there are 2 25%s, both A and D. And you know that the answer is 25%. But as defined earlier, only 1 answer is correct (by the nature of the gameshow), so you have a 1-in-2 chance of picking the "correct" 25%, which leads your odds to being 50%.
But its only 50% because you know the answer, not because you're picking randomly. The answer is still 25%, even if your odds are 50/50. Knowing the answer makes your odds no longer true random (they exclude 2 of the original 4 answers).
-> 100% know the answer is 25%, regardless of what happens, 50% odds of intentionally choosing the 25%, Final answer does not change.
idk if I explained that properly.
-> Sure you can "Pick randomly" between the 2 25%s, but that still means nothing, as the original question is asking "If you pick the answer randomly", which includes all 4. Picking randomly between 2 answers is not picking randomly between all 4, and therefore is completely irrelevant, your odds are still 25% picking randomly, and 50% picking intentionally.
Basically what I'm trying to say is the question itself is flawed, as it is impossible to pick the answer at random. You're self-referring to an impossible condition. Humans are not random. Neither are computers. Unless you pull out a quantum computer nothing is truly random.
What the question SHOULD be, is "what are the odds of getting this question right if you chose an answer intentionally" There's your paradox.
-> If you pick an answer intentionally, there's a 25% chance of getting it right
-> But because there are 2 25%s, and you're choosing intentionally, the odds are now 50/50
-> If you chose 50/50 knowing this, then there's a 100% chance you get it right
-> Except 100% isn't an answer, so there's a 0% chance you get it right
-> But knowing this there's a 100% chance you chose 0%, making it the wrong answer
-> so if 0% is wrong, then it's one of the other 3.
-> picking with intention, your odds are now 1/3, which isnt an option either, so you pick 0%
-> and so on
-> knowing that this gets stuck in an infinite paradox, you simply ignore it. Break out of the paradox, one IS correct, so your odds are back to 25%
-> and now you're just stuck in the bigger paradox, which drags you back into the smaller one by force
-> 25% leads you to the 50%, 50% to the 100%, 100% to 0%, you get the point.
(This is still with nature of the gameshow meaning there's only 1 correct answer by definition)
What a great illustration! Thanks!
c is correct because neither the question nor the amount of answers have been specified, so the answer is either right or wrong until all variables are known and a more accurate percentage can be applied (i have no idea what im talking about)
You really don't lol
First of all, the question has been specified. It's self-referential, it says "this" question.
Secondly, if there weren't any information given, that doesn't mean the probability is 50%. Probabilities don't start at 50% there still exists an actual probability that you just don't know. We don't know if aliens exist, that doesn't mean that there is at any time a 50% chance that I'll meet an alien
1. If the meaning of the question is, "ABSTRACTLY, randomly to choose an answer to a 4-multiple-choice question, what are the odds of choosing correctly?", then either A or D satisfies.
2. If the question is to be understood literally and self-referentially, it is in the same class as a request to produce a perfectly spherical cube; that is, it is nonsense, it is a defective question, and, metaphorically, a coredump waiting to happen unless an exception is thrown. It is NOT merely a paradox, it is just wrong. And, BTW, not entitled to an answer: if on an engineering exam, the only possible fair scoring would be to award full credit ONLY for failing to answer, or for citing the defect, if there are means to do so.
the correct answer is C, the chance to hit it randomly is 25%, which i can randomly hit 50% of the time, so not randomly i choose C. makes perfect sense to me.
It's a recipriversexcluson, a number defined as anything other than itself.
Just another form of Russell's paradox
The point of who wants to be a millionaire isn't to be self-consistent, it's to pick the answers designated as "correct" by the show's producers. So I'd go with 50% cuz it seems like the least bullshit one
Go with 25%.
The answer is A xor D and it's actually consistent. Basically by some magic, define A correct and D incorrect (even if they are both 25%, they don't have to be both valid answers.) So if we say, A is always correct, B,C,D is always incorrect, then randomly you have 25% chance of choosing A so A is actually consistent. The same can be said for D so it's either A or D but we don't know which, and never both.
is xor a mispelling of or or is it the logic faate
@@SUPABROS It's intentional, meaning one of the two but not both.
There's an underlying assumption that Ron made, which I didn't. I didn't assume that the percentages following the colons were answers to any particular question. For example, A, B, C, and D might have been answers about four different questions, such as
A What is the interest rate on a simple interest loan paying $1.25 per dollar after one year?
B What is the interest rate on a simple interest rate paying $1.00 per dollar after one year?
C What is the probability of getting heads when you toss a coin?
D What is the interest rate on a simple interest loan paying $150 per dollar after two years?
The question states that the percentages were answers to the question itself. That's not an assumption, the use of "this" forbids any other interpretation. "If you choose an answer to *THIS* question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?". Not _"the following_ question", or _"a_ question" but _"this_ question".
I don’t have the words to describe you because of orwell censorship
*youtube
This is like losing at chess and claiming you were actually the opponents pieces and won
That doesn't really make sense. If the percentages are in reference to some other question (which we don't see) then it's impossible to know which number is correct, because we don't even know the question being asked.
You just turned it from a paradox to an impossible question.
"This sentence is false."
An interesting extension is if you have five choices instead:
A: 20%
B: 0%
C: 20%
D: 40%
E: None of the above
Given 4 choices it is 25% based on the distribution. 5 choices gives a normal distribution centered around C at over 60%. That is why they give 4 answers.
The correct answer is silence. (No answer is null. Null is not necessarily zero)
How very zen this one feels.
What if “all but one answer are correct”? Would A D and C be all correct?
no because then the chance you pick the correct option would be 75%
took me 5s to understand the end joke 😅
Explain please
@@dan-us6nk It's another paradox. If all his statements in the videos are false then the statement stating the falsity is also false, meaning it is true. But if it is true then by its meaning, it is false at the same time.
@@dan-us6nkIf everything in this video is false then this sentence too
This is how most of the SAT test is formulated
Why can't 50% be the correct option.
Reason:
The answer can never be 0% because there has to be a right answer.
Both A and D are the same (25%) options so they can be treated as one option only.
Therefore, in reality, there are only two options, which are 50% and 25%.
Since, there are two choices, there is a 50% chance (option C) of you getting the right answer.
My logic might be dumb but please correct me if i am wrong anywhere.
The content of the answer does not matter. The only thing that matters is that you do make a choice and at radnom. The correct answer is whichever the test writers chose to make the correct answer. So, on a multiple choice question with 4 answers there is a 25% chance of getting the right answer at random.
The way i would have worked through this is considering how i would guess if i didn't know what the question is, only that it is multiple choice with one correct answer and the 4 answers before me are the choices. I would have ruled out the non-unique answers, as they could not logically be correct and incorrect at the same time, and then chosen randomly from the two remaining answers, so the answer would be C.
Considering both A and D basically removes the possibility that A and D are correct, thus making B true cus the only options are B and C
I can't help but think this is in some ways similar to the rigid body into the barn at close to light speed thought experiement in special relativity where the only way you can explain what is happening is to make the statement that "rigid bodies don't actually exist" (and collapse in such a circumstance). Similar in that - none of the answers you might want to give to the question work, and the only real answer is the 'our initial assumptions must be invalid in some way'. That's in some ways similar. Some sense.
I mean, could just have either A or D be correct, and just say even though they’re the same answer only 1 is marked as correct.
1:18 "The two correct answers must be identical." That's an odd assumption to make.
when in doubt, always pick b
So what happened in the show? Did the guy pick an answer or choose to walk away and what answer was shown as the correct answer afterwards as I am sure that they always show the correct answer even if the person decides to walk away.
(Assuming this is not a joke and you actually fell for it, this was an edit and was never actually on the show)
Is it uniform random?
There are distributions where this question has an answer.
Isn't B the closest to being correct as there's no way to be correct?
The 4th approach is actually consider one answer is correct or two answers are correct (A and C). But the problem is the answer to that approach is 37.5%
Why not B?
Self-referential problems lead to this stuff because people act as if the actual strings of characters given for the answer matters.
This is like answering "What's 1+1?
A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 2
The answer is C and D. But if it says there's one correct answer, than the paper is wrong.
In this video's case, the correct answer is 25% chance. If there are two options for "25%", assuming that the paper says there is only one correct answer, then the paper is wrong.
However, I perfectly understand the video, makes sense. In this case, like the video says, it is a "self reflection paradox". But if you want to solve problems in real life, then the correct answer is 25%, no matter if it gives you two options for the right answer.
Trick question. It would be 25% but you have a 50% chance of picking 25% and a 25% chance of picking 50% making those 2 paradoxical. And a 25% chance of picking 0% which is also contradictory.
THERE IS NO CORRECT ANSWER HERE.
Beautiful!
Complexity is wonderful
In this case, C 50% - Because the correct answer is 2 or of 4 of the options...
Normally, it would be 25%...
Any of the options can be correct. "At random" does not mean at random with equal probabilities.
This is a great point. I was also thinking which distribution would actually yield a consistent answer.
well there's a difference between choosing an answer and picking one randomly. you have to choose an answer that aligns with the result of picking randomly, where it doesn't matter what the answers are, but it does matter that two of them are the same. You have to assume that the answer that is labeled "correct" is just an assignment, rather than a logical truth in and of itself. So, the cases are
two right answers and two wrong answers: 50%
three wrong answers and one right answer: 25%
so... one of the answers should be 37.5% lol.
It's too late at night for me to be thinking through this shit 😂😂😂
Sleep buddy.
@@ron-math Just one more video.
The answer is C. Either it's right or it's not. 50-50.
The answer is C, because if you randomly pick C it's still the incorrect answer. But you aren't randomly picking one, you're intentionally choosing one, which means you can intentionally choose C as the correct answer and be correct, even if when you randomly choose it it is incorrect.
But the question says "if you pick one answer randomly"
@@benkunze4582 Yes, but it doesn't tell you TO pick randomly. It's asking what your odds of picking correctly IF you pick randomly. Your odds if you were to pick randomly are 0% because none of the answers can be correct if you pick at random.
Me: "haven't picked C in a while, so it must be C"
Feels like zugzwang. The right choice is to do nothing.
It cannot be b. And it cannot be a or d because that would mean there are two correct answers. It cannot be B because the chance would be 33% not 50%, nor the normal 25% because two answers are the same.
it is b because you never knew until you knew and that cant be a possiblity
Isn't the answer just 0%? If you have to choose an answer randomly, it's impossible to be correct. So, given that I get to choose in a non-random manner, my answer is B.
I ot 2 answers that aren't on the board for case one. I got either no solution or 3/8. I got the first one if case one is truly a self refrential paradox, assuming there isn't I considered the question like this. There is one correct answer but of the 4 options, 2 are the same, assuming so, the chance of you pick a value which represents the answer (I.E. 0%, 25% or 50%) is a 1/2 chance. Also the chance of you picking a letter answer (I.E. A,B,C or D) which is 1/4 with these being not indepedent, you average both. (1/2 + 1/4)/2 = 3/8 chance. I know it doesn't add up well, but i just thought it was an intresting way to look at the problem.
yeah it's 37.5% given 4 arbitrarily "correct" answers, 2 of which are the same. so... 0%?? lol
Maybe.
But, just maybe.
Also, none of the above would be right because every answer leads to contraction and is automatically wrong.
I guess 0% != ∅
The answer is 31.25% since we have two answers that are the same, 50% of the answers. And then 2 answers which have only one of them.
So, given that these are independent,
(1/4)(1/4) + (1/2)(1/4) + (1/4)(1/2)
=
0.3125
=
31.25%
So the answer is 25% because 0% of the answers are correct.
idk if it's correct or not but I found C) 50%. Here is my approach:
For example an answer is considered correct. Our chance to get right is 25% but there are 2 25%(A and C) so, i have 50% chance to get A or C right (idk which one of them assigned as a correct answer on system but it's 1/2)
But if 50% is correct then there is one answer which means its a 25% chance. The question has no answer
bruh didnt you watch the video
First time I saw this, B) was 33% and so 0% was the right answer since one has a 0% chance of randomly guessing that
So 0% is the awnser? how does that make any sense
@@catpoisonlover not for the version in the video, as he explained this version has no correct answer. For the other version of this question that I saw (a-0.25; b-0.5; c-0.33...; d-0.25) then 0 is the correct answer because the probability of guessing 0 is 0. The question is essentially "For what probability measure, q, is P({you randomly guess q}) = q?" and 0 is the only solution to that equation.
C is damn close to reality, everything you said in the video is obstensibly true but people still tend to pick C and you average a 50% success ratio with any random test set
i simply pick one answer at random, personally
You used an image of Who Wants to be a Millionaire at the start.
In that show, wrong answers are more wrong than no answers, because wrong answers make you fall back to the last checkpoint while no answers makes you fall back to the last answered question.
Yeah that's cool and all but what if my school exams aren't in the ABCD format whatsoever?
As there are only three possible answers, the correct answer should be 33,33%!
I think its C: its either u correct, or u wrong. So its like a coin flip
Weil die Antworten A und D gleich sind, können also auch mehrere Antworten (oder keine) gewählt werden. Dadurch gibt es 16 Möglichkeiten. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist daher 1/16. Es ist also keine der Antworten richtig 😊. Wenn mehrere Antworten nicht zulässig sind, sind A und D offensichtlich falsch und man hat eine 50/50 Chance zwischen B und C => Antwort C wäre dann richtig.
I would just say that the question is wrongly constructed ngl, you have 2 same answers and as you said, you need to guess number of correct answers. Its just wrongly worded. It would work if we replaced one of 25s with anything else though, but then again it wouldn't be a paradox anymore
The correct answer is either A or D. The percentage isn't important.
One should not assume a number of correct answers. The rest is valid.
A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.
E: 20%
Yeah but that’s no fun
Er... can I phone a friend? ☎️🤯
0% is the best answer and I can explain why in the replies only if someone wants to know my reasoning
I am listening.
@@ron-math Okay, so:
1) Answering 25% is wrong because that would be a 50% chance
2) Answering 50% is wrong because that would be a 25% chance
3) Answering 0% is wrong because that's a 25% chance too
Thus all answers are wrong, meaning there's a 0% chance of getting it right, meaning B (0%) is right.
Now, why does this work without entering into a paradox feedback?
Easy, you need to see the answer from an inside point of view from an outside point of view.
While answering 0% would be wrong →right →wrong →right →... 🔄, it is ultimately wrong, which from an outside perspective makes it right, being the only wrong correct answer!
I am lost at the "outside point of view" but your analysis before that seems solid.
@@ron-math yeah no Idk what the fuck I'm talking about it's 4am and englisch is hard 💀🎺
If you randomly pick A or D, then it is correct that you have a 25% chance to pick C. If you randomly pick C, then it is correct that you have a 50% chance to pick A or D. If you randomly pick B, then you have chosen a non sequitur that does not describe any part of the problem. If B were "chicken" you'd run into the same situation, but it would be more obvious. You are making the problem impossible by assuming that you must be able to evaluate it analytically. You have to observe how the dice roll interacts with the problem to understand it, no different than how a PID controller works. Real life is messy like this.
50% I’m pretty sure
Then it would be 25% because there is a 1 in 4 chance of guessing 50%
nice explanation
I agree it's a lie, it can be only multiple-choice no-correct answer question and the chance for no-answer to be true is 6.25%.
Maybe think about it next time?
Here's another one.
What's the probability of guessing the correct answer to this question?
A: 1/3
B: 2/3
C: 2/3
If everything you said in this video is a lie, then that means that this statement itself is a lie too, meaning that this statement actually means, "Everything I said in this video is true." But if that's the case, that means that the statement itself is a lie, meaning that this statement ACTUALLY means, "Everything I said in this video is a lie." This statement is self-contradictory and so it doesn't make any sense.
An excellent but useless application of logic. The question states that you are to pick randomly, not determine the correct answer. To do this, you need to know how many answers are correct, and how many you may pick from. Since the first is not given as a concrete value, then it is impossible to answer: no further analysis is required.
Could you help me understand a little?Why would it be C, these stats could apply in multiple cases, such as A and B are 25% or different situations like this.
Wait, if everything in the video is a lie, then this statement itself, is also a lie :O
You got it!
Oh, there were comments about this before me😅
That doesn't matter. It's important that "you" got it. Enjoy!@@shubhangibhangale183
Many multiple choice questions are poorly thought out and poorly written. Unhappily, sometimes important decisions are made on the basis of the results from poorly written MCQ.
How about making the answers
A 50%
B 75%
C 25%
D 50%
The last sentence is definitely a lie.
The answer is 0% but not B