Russian Oil Thrives Despite European Sanctions (Here's How...) || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубликовано: 10 сен 2024
- While sanctions on Russian natural gas have proven highly effective, those imposed upon Russian oil have somewhat backfired. Although oil exports have dropped by 10%, several factors have skyrocketed Russia's earning potential.
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#russia #oil #sanctions #europe
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This man is so committed he even provides updates while hiding from the Nazgûl!
You won the internet today with that comment! 😂
Good one :)
But they were all of them deceived, for another ring was made. In the land of Colorado the geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan forged in secret a master ring…
Ehehe, that's a very nice one. I wonder why Sam was kept out of the framing for the whole video, though. 😁
Get off the road!!!
The Golden billion people (US, Canada, Western Europeans) might be hurt and have to scale back their consumption. The other 7 billion people on this world are more then willing to spruce up their standard of living and use the 'extra hands' in their daily lives provided by oil and gas. Energy is everything, money is just digits. For them the Russian-Ukrainian conflict might actually be a good thing.
It's a bad thing thanks to fertilizer and grain being affected. The oil is a consolation prize.
Wake up every morning to your video . Good morning Have a wonderful day Peter.
Wake up every morning feeling like P. Zeihan?
Things are catching fire all across Russia quite a lot ever since the Ukraine war started. Would it be a net positive or a net negative if a few major pumps and distribution hubs in Russia accidentally burned down...
Wishing for terrorist acts. Very leftist of you. I'm sure your parents paid for your college
This travel channel certainly has a lot of geopolitical analysis.
Zeihan may be in the trenches but still ready and willing to make videos for us. What a trooper
Lol! Thought I recognized that location. Watch out for drones, Peter
He is either lying or extremely naive on the state of the Ukranian army, also i live right by these foothills as well
@@hunterbidensvaxmandateslol trash troll doesn't understand jokes. No wonder you only get paid fifty cents
The state of the Ukrainian army is that every single russian milcor has been non-stop crying "it's ogre" for about over a year now, and russia keeps losing ground every single month, making no gains whatsoever and failing to secure even what they already have. Seriously, there hasn't been a month in this past year where russia didn't lose at least SOME territory. @@hunterbidensvaxmandates
A Science lesson. A geopolitical lesson. A financial lesson. Thank you.
Keep on Keeping on.
I almost feel smart after watching Peters videos. Stunning.
what? its exact opposite to what he was saying few months ago. Saying Russians won't be able to maintain production without western tech.
@@hagestadhis previous predictions don't age well at all. One bighack!
@@klaasvakie Actually it's his current analysis that is wrong. https ://minfin. gov. ru/en/document/ --> Look for: "Document Brief monthly information on federal budget execution (cumulative from the beginning of the year, bln. rub.)" --> This is the RF's official Ministry of Finance's own website. Their revenues are down _69%_ compared to the same months last year. They have banned the export of various fuels because their own production has dropped so low that they need to hoard it for their own purposes. In short, revenues down. Production down.
@@hagestad i guess he’s learning on the fly like we’re all doing. Obviously many of us didn’t know how important (export wise) Ukraine was before all this stuff started 18 months ago . As it pertains to Russia, we were all taught to consider them as simply a gas station with a Gdp slightly above a third world country’s. The French minister of finance went on live TV to guarantee the collapse of Russia within 3 days…
I'm legit surprised no one has tried to sink a tanker, yet.
Actually, the Ukranians have attacked the Sig tanker. They damaged it but did not sink it. Stay tuned for more to come...
Yes. Seems to me there should be more explicit emphasis that US support for Ukraine is a national security issue, not a “foreign aid” issue.
US wants demise of Russia. But Ukraine is the best thing happened for the demise of US.
Why is it a National Security issue?
@@gameimprovements4347 Not sure if you are trolling or genuinely asking, but it's because this shit is happening on the borders of NATO. And NATO= US + Allies. Now, sure, you may advocate for USA leaving NATO, but then it's not NATO anymore. It's going to be something entirely different and it will do it's own thing - whether USA likes what it'll do or not. And that was always the bottom line in any conflict adjacent to NATO countries. To rephrase that, it's a question of whether USA wants to have a almost global reaching sphere of influence and stability in that sphere or whether it has no such ambitions. USA can be just another regional power. But you bet your butt, some other country will fill the void (and it might as well be Russia). Do you like that perspective? Just asking...
@@Wolf-Spirit_Alpha-Sigma Another way to look at it was NATO was relevant during the "Us-vs-Them" Cold War/Soviet Union days, but when that collapsed around 1990 it left NATO's function in question. The Ukraine situation with Russia's aggressive tactics seems to have brought NATO's relevance back into focus, and some decision has to be made about its future direction.
@@Wolf-Spirit_Alpha-Sigmashit is happening exactly because the borders of NATO infringed upon another power’s security. What came first, chicken or egg? But of course, exceptionalist USA is the only force for good for this God forsaken planet, if not us then who will keep all this plebs in line, right?!
thanks peter have a good day
That was a nice way of admitting that one of his major predictions (RUS oil tanking would be dead in the water because they couldn't get insurance) was completely wrong without actually bringing it up.
Actually, 99% of what he says is carp anyways
Here for this comment. Sad that this comment has 8 likes vs 500 likes for the top coment.
@@CaptainROC-hs2yn it's moderated to high heaven. The guy is either a plant or an idiot. Either way he is irrelevant now.
He is nato propagandist clown😁👍
The essential problem is that Russians aren't stoopid. They pretty much can make a silk purse out of a sows ear. Meanwhile the madcaps in our military are busy fitting 59 genders on the head of a pin.
Awesome to wake up every day to this. My first souce. Thank you.
He should talk about American homelessness poverty crime and drugs. America is falling apart
The abundance of light-sweet, what we might domestically call WTI (west tex intermediate) and the European analog "Brent" is mostly a hangover effect of the oil $bbl crashing back in 2015. This occurred at a time went producers were exploring and trying to bring new heavy crudes online. All of these prospects went to pot because, as PZ addresses, heavy crude (whether sour or not, it comes in both but mostly sour) requires special refining... it has to be "cracked" first and this comes straight off the bottom line. In spite of the BBL price recovering, since 2015, Permian basin "fracking" took off and all the refining side stayed put (no retooling to crack discounted crudes such as the heavys). Also, except for Canada, most other heavys are in developing nations and they require partnering. CCCP was slated to partner with VZ, Ecuador, etc... they too bailed prior to oil $bbl crash and never re-investigated.
which is why the proposed oil pipeline running sulfur-heavy Canadian tar sands past aquifiers in America's midwest southward to the TX refineries was such a political football. The Republicans loved to beat the Democrats over the head for killing it as some conspiracy plot to get America off oil and kill jobs--now they find new subjects to inflate--like yet another investigation of Hunter Biden to find yet no more evidence than they failed to find the last investigation--as the Saudis decide OPEC should cut back on oil production to get the last gasp money before Europe goes electric
Should we be retooling refineries to match the domestic market needs?
@@landontesar3070 I'm honestly not qualified to say, I'm just a retail investor who happens to be a non-petro-geologist. Speaking as John Q. Public, neither the production nor refining side thinks about national security. They have customers, and they prefer marriage over girlfriend.
That’s not what the charts say. Their volume has plummeted, even though price is up.
I see differing takes on this. On the spot market, Urals crude is trading at a slight discount. The big customers, India and China, are switching to Iranian crude because it is cheaper.
This market is very quick moving. A few days ago it was $100+ a barrel, now we are running at $85. That's a big difference.
There is another aspect of Russian oil being available. While the price is currently higher than the $60, it is not as high as oil was at the peak after the invasion. One economist pointed out that keeping the Russian oil in the market, with restrictions, keeps the world price down. This is, of course, true. It provides Russia with some income, but it is also a source that could be interdicted at any time.
Politically difficult but economically rational would be to let Russian crude back on the market. The volume would increase and the price would drop. This would cut Russian profit.
Europe could pay a 20£ per barrel tax which could go straight to Ukraine .
This would knock that amount of the price that Russia would get
WoW a lot to unpack there, Thanks Peter.
But are not total revenues from hydrocarbons down by about 40%? Mostly from the loss of sales of natural gas. And won't the Russian sovereign wealth fund be down to about 0 by the end of the year?
End of next year
Zeihan you should go on JRE again. Legit the best episode!
It's mindboggling that those countries go through al those shady workarounds so they can pay MORE for Russian oil.
I love the way Peter answers questions that i didn't know I had.
It seems a bit odd that Russian crude oil can be moved via ship for a reasonable price considering the really long circuitous route the vessels have to take compared to moving it via pipeline. How is this possible? Also, what currency is being used for this purpose?
Ru has tons of Indian rupees sitting in a Beijing Bank and they don't know how to deal with them.
It's exported by tanker once it arrives by pipeline inside Russia. Same as most oil exporting countries.
@@MetaView7naive way of thinking.. because CNN and bbc told you that .. haven't heard how that proplem is being solved ??
India will build 24 tnakers ( yeah even the Greece ones that they use now will no longer be needed.
) . A Russian shib building and Indian one collaborate ro build 24 ships , tankers , .. so stop deluding dude
‘Thriving” is an overstatement
India & China are the ones adding the value to that oil tho now, not Russia. Looking at raw oil production is but one part of the story of oil.... The oil is still flowing sure but Russia not refining it anymore as well as the price cap means the Russians lost pretty much ALL value added activities. All they can do, for now, is to keep their wells opens. I on the contrary think that if the goal was to not shake the market much but still hurt Russia's bottom line (see your natural gas video), it worked beautifully.
US goal always have been to shake the world and do hegemonic things. Russia sanctions were exactly like that but failed.
😂😂😂 cope
@@skp8748 Any updates on how the 3-day special military operation is going? Kyev going to fall any time soon?
@@antred11 Russia never said it. It was western propaganda.
Why wouldn't the Russians refine any of it?
Good stuff Pete.
If you look back through Peter's back catalog you can see he gets millions of views on his videos these days. When you consider he does some of these presentations, actually most, with nothing but daylight and a smartphone and that his competitors lag way behind with studio-based teams using fancy graphics and editing and lighting and upscale production there can be only one reason Peter still gets more views- and that is that he is way ahead of the game. It may be that many of his predictions will turn out to be wrong and by then Peter will be sipping cocktails on his own private yacht but I will still admire his intellect.
brutal honesty ?
Nah. People like doom.
as anyone who wants to profit off the internet needs to learn...content always trumps presentation.
He was with STRATFOR for about 15 years before going independent. I've been following his analyses since the 2000s. He's not just some guy who got on RUclips like all these kids with no background in this sector. He's been studying geopolitics, industry, and finance with close relationships with people in those industries since the 1990s.
He spends the money on data and analysis, not presentation. Absolutely the right way to go.
This is not strictly true, yes they are managing to ship a little oil out but not enough to save their economy.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Russia currently has the biggest economy in Europe so that little oil you say is making them a lot of money your not very smart I see 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
So if that is the case why is the Rubel value against the Dollar so low in value on the international money markets Why has Russia started to default on international loans. And take your smiley face images' and stuff them up your ASS.
The objective of the price cap was never to kill export, it was to restrict Russian profit, if everyone has had to buy stuff and insure it themselves then it seems they've successfully added a ton of cost to that operation
😂😂😂😂😂 copium
Right, but the cost isn't carried by Russia. It is carried by customers.
In order to answer this, we would need to know how much is carried by customer and how much by producers (or other businesses).
I have the feeling that only a few percent is carried by the producers.
@@devalapar7878the cost will be carried by the desperate party, if that's either Russia or China it's all good imo :P
No, it's just facts. Oil & gas revenues down 70%, Ruble is now less than 1 cent on the dollar. @@skp8748
Exactly. Stopping export unfortunately wasn't an option, since that oil is needed on the world market. The whole point was to make selling it a gigantic hassle for Russia. And yes, it is costing us as well. No such thing as a free lunch.
You say the oil revenue has increased compared to before the war. This means you have the data for both 2023 and before the war to compare. It would be nice if you put that in the video too.
Since refining oil and then exporting it is now more India's business than Russia's how did they manage to with crude alone be more profitable while still having to sell their crude at a discount? (although still 1/4-1/3 higher than the EU price cap)
Also, how are the profits per barrel? If today the production costs are closer to the revenue than before the war then even with increased revenue, it doesn't guarantee that they're more profitable.
Joe Blogs’ report today tells a different story. His data is drawn from the Russian government. It would be interesting to get your take on this data.
Brilliant as always, Peter!!! Cheers, ... Brian.
Love your content Peter. However on this one I would have loved if you could have shown specifically how much revenue Russia has lost from decreased refined oil sales and how much revenue it has made from crude oil sales so we could compare the net profit of both compared to the net profit before sanctions. I’ve been seeing on various other content that the net profit of combined crude and refined oil is way down as compared to before sanctions. Can you comment on specific data/ numbers? Thanks again keep the content coming.
Russian Energy revenues as a whole Gas/ Crude/ Refined (Refined Oil Exports were completely stopped about one or two weeks ago as they were mostly being under cut by India and China turning Russian crude into refined products which Europe has been being and avoiding Russian refined products all together) are down by 50% plus overall!?!
If he stated that
You'd find out he is feeding you bullshit and a very biased viewpoint.
It's amazing. Peter knows stats on everything but he can't let go of his programmed Gen-X anti-Russian hate. Pity. He could be so knowledgeable in geopolitics but he's too faint of heart to handle reality. Doubles down in delusion .
Gratz on 600k subs
Geopolitics AND a science lesson about oil. This is why I love Peter’s videos!!
and he's 🔥too
Science 😅😅😅
This man an encyclopedia walking across the mountains
Even though Russia might still be getting oil out, I wonder what it's profit margins are? Generally speaking, oil is more expensive to transport by ship than by pipeline.
I have heard from Peter in the past that production costs are in the low $30's per barrel. I have also heard that Chinese are selling Russian oil on the world market. I still believe Russia is selling crude at below market rates to China and India
In short, bad. Their Ministry of Finance website shows their O&G income to be down 69% in comparable months to 2022. https ://minfin. gov. ru/en/document/ --> Look for:
Document
Brief monthly information on federal budget execution (cumulative from the beginning of the year, bln. rub.)
@@bernardzsikla5640 Thanks, ChatGPT says about $42-44 per barrel, it said it was unclear as to whether that includes shipping.
Everything that we get from Russia (or more often these days what they don’t want o say) indicates that it’s hurting them. I mean if it wasn they’d be bragging but their not, and their budgets are in the toilet, so yeah.
The sanctions arent some 100% effective and immediate deathblow to the Russian economy, but considering the position Russia is in, the sanctions are effective enough to hurt it.
It's like turning down your thermostat. It's not going to kill you instantly, but it will effect you negatively, and if you happen to be vulnerable (because you are invested in a very expensive endeavor, like a major war) then I might lead to a lung infection somewhere down the line.
It's basically impossible that Europe puts these sanctions on russia, and it DOESN'T hurt them, and that is all they are supposed to do. They don't need to cause Putin to release a video of him screaming and shitting himself, it's enough that it puts SOME additional pressure on him, which it is definitely doing.
I mean this was kind of expected to eventually happen.
I’ve said from the beginning, sanctions used to work when Europe n the US were basically the only game in town so sanctions worked. With globalization and the rise of China’s and other economies, sanctions only work if the vast majority of countries play along and in this case, they are NOT! And as you said, the sanctions weren’t applied quickly enough.
Russians are been transforming their economy since 2014...they were preparing for everything..that why they winning either its battlefield or economics...Russian century has began!!!
Thank you
Usa really needs to build out our refining capacity for the oil we have domestically
we can't because team green NGOs drag the companies into court to waste millions of their dollars and drag the permit process out by years, and the refinery companies got sick of dealing with the hassle. i saw something that explained it a lot better in good detail a long time ago but i dont remember what it was called to accurately search for it
You can thank the insanely corrupt biden and his administration for high fuel prices, it appears many have not been paying attention, he has, at every opportunity, cancelled any fossil fuel exploration, development, and production, his war on the fuel that America and Americans count on daily is being pushed hard, it is quite obvious, not to all, that without oil, a resource our Nation is rich in, America will cease to be affordable, and…as always…FJB!
@BabySkinCondom if you do end up remembering let us know. Thx
Aint gou g to happen. ESG.
I like the honesty. " I thought it was going to do this, this happened instead". Gives you way more credibility
Oil not working as expected.
Until someone decides to launch a torpedo.
Against a ghost ship.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
The last two videos seems like he's hiding in the back yard from his wife. "Are you making another RUclips video? I asked you to clean the garage!" Lolz
Those ships with their transponders off sounds like a great target for modern privateers!
Time to revive that great British tradition?
I swear to Christ every time I hear that our gas prices are through the roof because our refineries are built to work with shittier quality product and refuse to adapt to homegrown American oil, I get angrier.
at who?
' through the roof' American gas is far cheaper than almost any developed nation. so they are doing something right.
Because there are some good byproducts to be gained & sold from that low grade petroleum.
Oil refinement investments take decade to pay off and generate profits.
Given how unstable the future of oil usage is, companies won’t invest in something that might be obsolete
Calm down - in domestic refineries it's about running at high margins. Refined product is imported from less advanced international refiners so take it easy. Peter is a pretty bad source for petroleum refining economic information.
ty
I love your videos. I love geopolitics
... "Let us begin with this evident fact: Muscovy does not belong at all to Europe, but to Asia. It follows that judging Muscovy and the Muscovites by our European standards is a mistake to be avoided."-gonzague de reynold, 19501 In methodological terms, one should de-Europeanise any analysis of Muscovy policy.- thomas gomart, 20062 "
Europe is still importing a lot of russian LNG.Especially Spain and Belgium.Shame on them.
Germany too😅
angel merkel knew what she was setting up europe for, despite 2014 invasion
If they don't, their internal markets will collapse, and with them probably the global economic markets. So.... pick your poison.
yeah lng is more like a train on the ocean it can only meaningfully move from station to station.
The intention was never to 'keep Russian oil off the market all together '. It was to stop them profiting from it.
The profits from it are the highest it has ever been since before the war. How about you actually watch the video before typing?
@@DarthVantos He was just pointing out what the intention was; he didn't claim how well it was working.
Profit per barrel may be up. But the additional costs and burdens required to bypass the sanctions have been effective in reducing the amount of volume being transported, and hence cutting the overall Russian oil profits.
@@murrayjeffree8245 ahh I don't know about that. From what I have been reading until recently (last couple months) India and China were taking all Russia was willing to make them a deal on. I guess we will see.
@@robertlewis2542 No, he's right. Russian revenues always post as increased month on month throughout the year. Then drop for January. (Think like a big sawtooth pattern) Peter conveniently left that part out. Their revenues _year on year_ are down 69% (nice) from 2022, which itself was down from 2021. And this info is from the Russian ministry of finance's own website. https ://minfin. gov. ru/en/document/ I'm not sure why Peter left that out, as it pretty much shoots his analysis all to hell.
interesting
what would it take for us refineries to switch to domestic light sweet?
About a billion per refinery.
Would be interested in hearing about your thoughts on the Saudi push to develop their light sweet crude and the potential effect on the futures market.
You forgot to show off the mountains you were hiking around.
Are ships also indemnified against piracy? If so that suggests one possible way things could go especially if these ships are switching off their transponders.
Russia allows shipping companies to protect their boats with mercenaries. Pirates get killed so often they don't target Russian vessels.
@@dontcare7086US special forces disguised as pirates.
@@shorewall Those special forces won't return home and may end up as fish food.
A free world navy could simply interdict and impound a tanker now and again, not so often to make it not worthwhile for Russian oil to continue flowing, but often enough to make a deep cut into Russia oil profits.
Um are you going to mention Nordstream as to why Ruskie Natural Gas has plummeted? what am I missing?
Nordstream was not essential to russian gas export to Europe, there are enough other pipelines.
It was important only for the russians, because it has bypassed Ukraine.
@@williamforsyth6667 Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline had accounted for 15% of Europe's gas imports in 2021. now that has stopped.
The pipelines through Ukraine are still operational as far as I know?
@@nicolasolton are you saying that Russia is still sending gas to Europe through and in partnership with Ukraine? how in the hell is that possible?
@@jakenasz3428 As far as I know they still are. I tried linking an article but it didn't seen to work, I will try again.
Sanctions only work when imposed upon the things that people want, not on the things they actually need.
It’s very interesting to learn how things work. The insight that Peter provides us just great and it’s good for a free society to understand these things as our government makes decisions for us to which we largely do not understand
,
Your so called democratic govt cons you and common person like you don't understand because they are made for corporate thugs not for your benefits
That’s not what the charts say. Their volume has plummeted, even though price is up.
Also nobody is buying oil in rubles. Everyone buying is their own currency
Sure - trust the politicians, they know what's best for us. How many boosters are you on now??
Refineries can be adjusted to deal with different grade mixes. It just takes time, money and an understanding that the change of crude mix is likely to last for a significant amount of time.
Wasn't the oil price cap a G7 sanction and not a european one ? (so UK, USA, Canada ans Japan as well ? )
Japan ditched the Price cap almost immediatly.. Couldn't cope started buying Russian oil-LNG on open market at spot prices. Same Japan (and Kirea) has 25% stake Russias Far East Sakhalin2
Gas Project yeh...
Ofcourse won't read that on Reuters Bloomberg FT...lol
Peter, how about LNG. It seems that LNG was excepted from sanction so EU can develop its LNG infrastructure to receive imports. At the same time, the US is increasing LNG export capacity to EU.
Personally think Ukraine was expecting Russia to hit the ships transporting grain and that gives them reason to go after Russian transport ships but think there is just a unspoken truce with the ships but ports and the infrastructure to fill the ships its open season
That sounds possible mrblazeit420 🤔
Except the shipping to India and China costs way more than pipeline to Europa did. So the profits are not as big as seem at first look. Some Russian commentators even claim that for a while Russia was selling oil at loss, just to avoid shutting down fields.
Peter, thanks for your excellent analysis of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and how it is affecting lives around the world.
On a lighter note, I too live in Colorado and often am in the mountains on my dirt bike. Autumn here is unlike anything else!
However, I couldn't help but imagine seeing some large and furry paws come walking up behind you!!
😮😂
Good job, you’re getting fooled by this so called ‘expert.’ 😂
Excellent, as always!
Waking up at 5:30am and watching Peter has become a routine
You crazy - better sleep than waking up early to watch CIA propaganda.
1:05 Saying that the Natural Gas market isn't liquid is an unforgivable pun.
I'm not happy about this obviously and I see that as a partial failure. However, I think the value-adding oil products are a bit more important than the crude, and that has all but crashed in Russia. Still, far from desireable.
Ha,ha,ha you can't stop pirates never can never will!! LONG LIVE THE PIRATE!!
We don't want Russia to stop producing oil. That would be bad for oil prices (from our point of view).
What we want is for Russia to stop making profit, or at least from profiting from high oil prices.
Russian oil exports to Europe have dropped by 10%, but the country's ability to profit from it has increased due to the sanctions placed on the country. This is due to three factors: the physicality of oil, the chemistry problem, and the legalities and niceties. Unlike natural gas, oil is a liquid and can be transported in any container, making it easier to export. Additionally, different types of oil have different grades, which can cause mismatches in the market. For instance, there is currently an oversupply of light sweet crude, which is trading at a discount compared to other global crude grades. However, the world is running out of heavy sour crude, which has caused prices to rise. Finally, the legal restrictions placed on Russian oil exports have been circumvented by the establishment of state-sponsored insurance programs for maritime shipping by countries like China, India, and Russia. Despite European sanctions on Russian oil exports, the country's ability to profit from oil has increased due to alternative shipping methods and the global market's need for Russia's medium sour medium heavy blend, the eurals blend.
gut
An interesting footnote would be that Germany at this moment is importing large volumes of oil from India, and where does India get most of its oil imports from..? Yes you guessed it, from Russia....
Who paid for it a a steep discount, with a VERY slim profit margin.
@@jchase8223 india buys oil above price cap .russian oil always sold lower than brent crude .try reading for once
@@robo__cop8154Nope, Both China and India are buying Russian oil at prices below the cap. There is no way India would dare to fall in the secondary sanctions regime. Not sure about China though as they pay for all that in Chinese Renminbi.
@@AjayTiwari-en9nz Reuters reported the other day that India is in fact buying oil at prices above the cap.
@@AjayTiwari-en9nz go and check on google this isn't new your info is outdated .last time india bought oil at 72$
Im a new comer to your channel and really like your videos. Regarding to oil sanctions is this only in regards to crude, or do you consider the refined oils a separate catagory? Another creator i like listening to, Joe Blogs, has aserted that the sanctions on crude is intentionally low as Russia makes most of its profits on refined oils and by only tatgetting the refined the global market still gains access to the oil, but russia makes considerably less as China/India only buy crude and refine it themselves. He points to Russias issues keeping refined fuels available in their own contry as a signal that the sanctions are working as intended. As this is miles outside of my knowledge base and you have interest in this area id like to hear your opinion on the assertion. Thank you in advance.
Is Zeihan suggesting piracy or war ?😂😂😂
We already have war, Russia invaded Europe.
Yeah people like him are why Russia invaded Ukraine.
Privateering perhaps.
'light and sweet vs heavy and sour' when did we switch to talking about wine?
I think it may be time for some mysterious explosions in various Russian ports. Big ones.
Yeah let's have a Nordstream and blame it on the Russians again...
So you want those US power grid attacks to increase?
Stay tuned...
Port facilities are vulnerable to fire...
So is US grid.
We need more renewables and nuclear. I know its way down the line, but fusion is becoming less of a pipe dream
I Don't know how many times I have to post this but I will keep going. Molten sodium (thorium) that's the best option. -Cheers.
Also better battery/capacitor chemistry
@@Archangelm127 Glass membranes are the future pioneered by a team including Dr. Goodenough. (RIP)
Yep, agreed. The concept is so elegant that it deserves further development.@@smarternu
@@smarternu i think those have corrosion issues and they are looking for the right materials still? I think they were experimenting with some type of nickel alloy? I forget
We have gotten rid of all our sweet refineries and here we are.
When did we do that? Oh, I remember... that was roughly around the time when you were talking about contrails a lot. ;-)
Could that drop on natural gas have anything to do with the pipeline the U.S destroyed
The pipeline that was never put into production? No.
The only effect of the destruction of Nordstream had was to perhaps stiffen the spines of EU in their resolve to get more of their NG from geopolitically stable countries. And it worked! It takes allot of time and $ to rebuild thei NG pipelines East to China, but that’s what they’re doing. The price of war.
The US destroyed? Where? When??
Great answer to a question that has been on my mind for some time. Thanks, Peter, great work as always.
If its going to require military action by "someone", I'll bet on Ukraine. They're showing the world how to deal with Russia
Or mysterious third parties with no insignia. That's hella risky though; if somebody (or their corpse) gets captured, you have a diplomatic crisis or maybe a bigger war.
Ukraine is losing badly... Cope.
Ukraine is decimated. Their soldiers are surrendering in thousands
Losing badly by gaining ground every single month? "They are too slow in winning therefore they are LOSING!!!"@@TDH_1962
@@TDH_1962 I assume that is why we're currently in the 2nd year of Putin's brilliant 3-day special military operation, right?
LIFE IS LOVELY 😊
Thankyou great review as always. The Iraq - Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan is soon coming back on line from the resent statement’s, Kurdistan has heavy oil producers like Gulf Keystone who have the potential to ramp up production along with other companies, with a established route to market and a pipeline capacity around 500k barrels per day, that could provide a long term solution to the European energy security needs.
The US are supporting terrorists in the region which will be a stumbling block
That’s not what the charts say. Their volume has plummeted, even though price is up.
And you're dealing with erdigan
Money always transcends politics, this has the potential to be a strategic alliance, Turkey’s ambitions to become an energy hub requires, co operation and most importantly uninterrupted hydrocarbon flows, Kurdistan have a largely underdeveloped hydrocarbon basin that will likely attract IOC’s once the oil starts flowing again, not to mention gas potential, the political class now realise hydrocarbons are here to stay for cost effective reliable energy for many decades, and the geopolitical shift means Europe needs to help develop new streams of oil and gas.
We don't really want Russian oil off the market completely. We definitely want it off ASAP, but there are other ways to achieve an equivalent goal that do not require so many people around the world have to pay the current energy tax let alone an even higher one. This is about X number of dollars going to Putin. Let's use other sanctions to stop as much cash flow as what we can reasonably expect to reduce russian sales to, without crushing the global economy, and then stop even more so you can free up more russian sales. This lowers global prices, gets money into Russia that get more spread around than most and separates our goals from our suffering.
Bribery? Maybe some sub rosa privateering?
Its 4 the best we still have 90% of Russian oil on the market because if we only had 50% oil would be at 200$ a barrel
Nobody was thinking ahead.
What good are sanctions if those who impose them do nothing to enforce them? ❤ They need to take action
Ukrainian navy, please please please start handing out letters of mark ‼️ I could see myself as an anti Russian oil pirate
Sure, everybody's brave behind their computer screen 🤣
Sanctions are a crok. My wife came from Russia and still hasall her family there. So many western companies simply changed the names of their products and kept selling. All that matters are dollars.
Because your wife is a forensic accountant and she figured out now exactly owns what company??
Companies that changed their names are usually, but not always, simply the local partners taking over the full legal entity, and rebranding. The foreign company has really pulled out. This was mainly due to the inability to transfer profits out, owing to the banking system becoming uncoupled.
Any foreign branded products available to buy are now usually the result of 'parallel importing' and are significantly more expensive. For example, electronics used to be a bit cheaper than in the EU. Not now.
@@spencerburke It's hardly the economic collapse the advocates of sanctions predicted at the start of the war though is it! Yeah ordinary Russians have to pay more now for their phones and cars. But Russian armaments production is up heavily since the start of the war, even the NYT admits it.
Russia has burned through 400 billion if reserves. When reserves gone the economy dives. There won't be money to buy domestic goods
@@spencerburke then why do the cans of coke still say coca cola bottling company, and sit where the oke products used to sit for example?
Love your content! I'm an American living in China and I hope you'll keep sharing your takes on China-related topics! Loved your books as well - write another one! Take care Peter!
Yes more China
Hope you get out of China before it's too late. Satisfy your yellow fever elsewhere.
Get out of the PRC if you possibly can.
@@Archangelm127 Agreed. _Not_ a safe place to be right now, for a multitude of reasons.
Tell him to write another one about the demise of China. What are you doing in China? Espionage?
Toss a local t match oil company facilities so unsafe
Great Update Peter. Goes to show that the gloomy forecasts that you were making 12 months ago about the Russian crude, have not come to fruition. Very creative manouvering by RICs. Gotta give it to them
Peter, there are always options and work-arounds.
Still annoyed. You predicted that the Siberia pipelines would freeze beyond repair and that Lloyds would squeeze tankers. Wrong+wrong ?
Can you please explain further, i am interested in your thoughts
Interesting as I has not heard anyone that agrees with this position on Russia's profit from oil.
note to the editor, please don`t put contradictory titles on videos one after the other
I was the first one to post yesterday linking a September Reuters article where the combined Russian gas and oil revenues where up 15%. My comment was deleted immediately
yeah you`re right, do I delete the comment or leave the discussion for educational purposes@@leanja6926
@@leanja6926 he deliberately to separated them. I posted a comment and linked a Reuters articles about it. According to a Reuters September article, combined oil and gas revenues are up 15%. Separating them is exactly a way of misinforming the public without misrepresenting facts. It’s by omitting facts
@@festekj Russian revenues are always posted as increased month on month throughout the year. Then drop back down for January in a sawtooth pattern. Their revenues _year on year_ are down >65% from 2022, which itself was down from 2021. And this info is from the Russian ministry of finance's own website. https ://minfin. gov. ru/en/document/
Yet revenues to the Russian treasury from oil and gas are still in decline. Isn’t that what matters?
Sanctions work only to a point.
Military action also has its limits.
Advocating military action against Russia is suicidal.
"A shot across the bow, Mr. Worf..."