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Peter Zeihan || Deglobalization: There's No Stopping It Now
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- Опубликовано: 1 фев 2023
- The globalized world has seemingly been great for everyone...security, access to foreign markets, the list goes on...so why would the US choose to continue down the path of deglobalization?
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Imagine being utterly lost in the forest and Peter walks by talking politics to his phone and just disappears over the mountain
Wonderful. Someone I can follow out.
Surreal 😆
Casually enjoying a meditational session in the woods, Peter walks by lecturing his phone and now I’m completely freaked out about everything in the world. 😂
giggling out loud at work picturing that thanks mate
🤣🤣🤣
"Children went from being free labor to expensive headache." Best quote of the year!
Feels like the justification for our predecessors mortgaging their future which has become our present.
Oil/Car dependence, the decline of freedom, the damage to the environment, etc. were all paths chosen both to benefit our predecessors but also to preserve the status quo.
It will unfortuantely be a very interesting time... As larger and larger percentage of our population "chooses" to not have children (or cant afford them....), society values and domestic and foreign policy will shift. I dont think it will be good for people, or sustainable. Combine that with the long term debt cycle dating back to the boomers. Or will we have japan sustainable? Or spmething else?
Hey dude, today’s kids are totally cool 😎
Child labor in factories?
@@buzzart410In farms
This dude reminds me of the fact that I only listened to my good history teachers. There's just gaps of info unprocessable cause not all teachers actually cared about student focus/interest, but damn this dude's one of the good ones
Yes, they were not educators for the most part, they were democrat UNION hacks who taught the same old out of date history, obsolete, stale crap all of their 20 - 25 years. My stupid boomer generation cheered them on "striking" at the picket lines at our high school, because every day striking meant another day of hanging out in class doing nothing , learning nothing...
He is certainly entertaining and gives off an air of easy familiarity with just about everything. I doubt his prognostications are accurate
An economist I used to listen to before he retired from speaking said, about the declining population and people’s solution being robotics, “robots don’t go shopping”
They don't pay taxes either.
The problem is that more and more jobs are being done by robots. Humans are literally becoming replaceable with robots. The day will soon come when there will have to be a minimum government-subsidized livable income, period, no questions asked. Programs of depopulation will be implemented worldwide by man voluntarily, or nature will depopulate man without mercy. @@UncleNiikii
@UncleNiikii but they could be taxed 🤔
If you own everything and everyone, you don't need an economy.
@@UncleNiikii, impressive, Thats a New quote
I don't know if this guy is right or wrong but I sure like hearing anyone's educated opinion that doesn't begin with the starting point of their political ideology.
As a radical centrist, I agree
@@jessestevens_aka_jesus I too am a radical centrist
He doesn't have to, his man bun says it for him.
You are far from alone.
@jessestevens_aka_jesus I like that😂 I often tell people there is no such thing as a radical moderate…lol.
You outline geo-political history better than anyone. I reference and forward your videos to all my friends, conserv and lib, because they don't know history. Very good. Keep up the good work.
Haha how do you can have libs and conv both as friends is a puzzle to me
@@pjcanada4763 What in the methsmoke are you talking about? You made zero sense! did you drop out of grade school?
@@pjcanada4763 I have a feeling you’re a lib.
@@airgasmYT never will never was 😂
Typical paid comment
As a Coloradan, Zeihan's heavy breathing here while just walking makes me estimate he's at least around ~9k elevation, maybe more in the 11k range.
Great content, my guy. Many thanks!
he said republicans and democrats are in a tug of war for the unions LOL TOO FUNNY
Or hes really out of shape
He's up in the hills west of Boulder
I think we are too obsessed about the economy crashing. In the right sense, the economy never crashes. It just undergoes cycles, and almost always recovers. So I really don't care what the predictions are. I just want to grow my portfolio. I read that people are pulling in massive profits despite the downturn. Any tips on how they do it?
I think it's the professionals and those who use their services that are really pulling in the big money right now. There are really advisors that can help you achieve very consistent growth. I have a friend who pulled in more than $194k profit within three months. So you just have to make some research and get one who fits your fin-goal.
Investing in quality stocks with long-term potential is a good strategy, but it can be challenging for the average person to do this on their own. Keeping up with industry news and earnings can be time-consuming and difficult. That's why it's easier to work with an advisor who can help you make informed decisions and potentially achieve high returns.
@@TomD226 Please how can i find your advisor?
@@TomD226 Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Tell it to the people who survived Weimar germany hyper inflation, 1929 great depression or perhaps one of the millions who got a 5 fixed to ARM mortgages in early 2000's and are now shitting in someones front lawn in San Fran because of the overt manipulation on behalf of wall street and the FED and GSE's.
I really look forward to these little discussions every morning when I wake up and am making my first coffee of the day. It really does help get me thinking in the mornings about how the world machinery works outside the little group of cogs I directly interact with.
Same
Me too
Uh-oh... does Deglobalization include coffee? Peter, say it isn't so!
@@newphaze4t370 this could justify a war for resources. we should war game the strategies necessary to keep it flowing.
too bad he's terribly wrong.
Zeihan's confidence in the impending demise of China is always stunning.
If that database hack last year is anything to go by, their population is already down to 970 million.
His whole shtick is false confidence. I enjoy his videos for the pretty views and the mental exercise of thinking why he's wrong. Because he's always 100% wrong about everything.
He is not the only one who thinks China is having the last gasp of its failed regime.
@@ebradley2306 he's not the only one who believes his own propaganda
@@grahamfloyd3451 just like every schizo RUclipsr who makes insane predictions
The first premise seems to be incorrect? (as per wiki):
The United States represented 28.69% of the world's economy in 1960 (highest point), and was at its lowest point at 21.42% in 2011. It accounted for 1.8% of the world's economy in 1820, 8.9% in 1870, and 19.1% in 1913. The United States produced 14.2% of global GDP in 2022.
Okay Man bun. You intrigue me. I will proceed with caution and listen to you more.
What I appreciate most is the 'Deep Dive' down to the Roots of the issues that impact each and every one of us. It is diametrically opposite to the 'soundbite' nonsense legacy media has conditioned all to accept unquestioning. Fully informed Knowledge is The Only way for a person to make their own, personal choices. Thank You Peter.
Black nobility
Pete uses click bait titles on tube to blaze his rational fears. His observations defy conclusions. His best conclusion is his summary of indecipherable shit storms. Genius? Absolutely! Ex organic chemist absolutely! I? Totally mesmerized, addicted to a Zeihan fix daily! Pete you're in the wheelhouse, absent crew and nuclear propulsion. Whew, fascinated I. Keep sprouting Pete, we're your addicts!
@@tylermcphee4358 *we was kangz (no they weren't) by Kendrick Lamar
@@tylermcphee4358 ?
Typical paid comment
Today was like taking a walk with a really smart, interesting friend. Love this format and Zeihan's humorous yet articulate demeanor.
you have been fooled /this guy is wrong about most of the predictions he makes /i thought the same as you when i first heard him
@@stkrrauch1 His predictions, oddly enough, could turn out to be right, but his explanations are like a math student's who cheat on tests. When you check their work, it's just random gobbledygook. That tells me that he's smoke-screening for the globalists who are collapsing the world around us on China's behalf. He wants it seem inevitable; down to debatably desirable or undesirable social factors (population implosion), or pure revisionism- such as "Ukraine winning the war", or "Russia's economy didn't just take a massive leap forward in terms of trade deficit, GDP, and international leverage with Asia". Maybe he'll be right about the world 20 years from now, but he's waving his hands over here to distract his viewers from what's really happening over there, and who's doing it to us.
he is a professional bull shiter
Don't you mean Idiotic, not "humorous"?
@gae he’s not wrong. Go ahead and apply some scrutiny. He’s just unfathomably unlistenable, with a man bun literally on top.
I love that there’s no hate for honest messaging. Hopefully others are listening
Lots of respect for this channel 🥰🥰🥰
"Pay you to be on our side" aka assassination, support dictators, and overthrows democracies America is an empire not a nation
He said trump and biden are in a tug of war for the unions LOL I would love to see a pro-union republican, a purple unicorn. I mean it, they would actually be right on an issue for once, would be a nice change.
Some respect for the fact he is always walking around in the cold.
It's not deglobalization, it it's a reglobalization where US will priority new friends who they can control and the old will pay the cost of geopolitical decision.
Basically. Good point.
Which friends? EU target US corporations (especially the big tech) with regulations and sanctions, preventing them to make money in EU, and vice versa, US govt put tariffs on European products.
Everyone turn their back on globalization and focus on their own domestic (or regional) trade/industry.
I agree with Zeihan. Globalization will end probably within next 10-20 years.
Regionalization of globalization
Very good point. A real deglobalization would lead to a shrinking economy everywhere and more poverty in the USA.
@@maritaschweizer1117 half right. Zeihan says that the global economy will shrink, pretty much everywhere, but as the US repatriates manufacturing, this will create job opportunities for many who had no productive work to do prior…so it may have the reverse effect in the US.
More great thoughts. I have been part of globalization since the beginning of my merchant, marine career, 1982 and I got my commercial pilots licenses and work my way into air freight as I flew empty 747 freighters out of Anchorage to Asia and returned stuffed to max takeoff weight, I knew something was wrong. I enjoyed reading history and geopolitics throughout the years. I understood why the US made these trade agreements with Asia. But as I looked at our trade deficits and federal budget deficits, I knew things would have to change.
Your perspective is informative but physical goods shipped by sea and air is only one aspect of global trade. One Boeing aircraft is worth a whole ship load of rubber dog crap. One foreign exchange student paying full fees at a US University is bringing tens of thousands back into the country in trade. Tourists bring money back in trade. The stock market is free to sell securities to foreign nationals. The trouble with the status quo for society is that there are relatively few people providing those goods and services and their gains aren't trickling down to the people who used to work at the rubber dog crap factory in the US.
It’s hard to tell exactly what your understanding is about U.S. economic policy in relation to global geopolitics, but if you’re worried about trade deficits, you’re barking up the wrong tree and you do not understand the economic basis of our policies.
To oversimplify, trade deficits are not owed by the U.S., they are owed by individual companies. These deficits are driven by consumer demand, as Pete points out. That demand is driven by demographics. However, those trade imbalances benefit our country, both in terms of global stability and in terms of powering our economy. The trade imbalances are part of the cement that make the U.S. dollar the base currency of global trade, and this creates a stability that benefits us.
It’s the keystone of U.S. “hegemony” because it’s the keystone of global trade that benefits the greatest number of people worldwide, and those material benefits go towards those countries with internal stability that follow the international rules based order, i.e Western Democracies. This is a powerful motivation for countries to move towards capitalistic democracy. (I put “hegemony” in quotes because it’s a special kind of economic hegemony. It’s not imperialism nor colonialism as the socialists would have you believe, but clear thinking was never their strong suit.)
That said, you are not entirely wrong. You’ve arrived at the right conclusion from faulty reasoning. The re-ordering of the world economic system is because of the change in demographics. The world economic system is based on growth and we’ve reached the limits of that growth.
Pete frames this as the problem but I think that’s the wrong way to think about it. Problems can be solved. Instead it’s better to think about the global changes in demographics as the new conditions, conditions to which we must adapt. And part of that adaptation is global economic retraction and the slow unwinding of U.S. “hegemony”.
We have to think about capitalism/globalism as a vehicle. It’s a vehicle that has served a purpose in our moving forward. Now road conditions have changed and we must adapt that vehicle to a bumpier road. The system of the world must change to meet the new conditions of declining economic growth, stagnation, or even economic decline.
Keyword to the above is “system”. We must think in terms of systems and systems of systems. If we don’t, we will be totally unprepared to meet the future.
You basically just said, "me, me, me, me, me."
@@MarcosElMalo2 Thanks for the synopsis on the global economy. With the global economy and shrinking demographics, is this why the WEF has been quoted as saying, "You'll own nothing and be happy?" Everything we become a subscription base model. People will rent everything and own nothing in order to keep money flowing to the banks and governments?
@@benhatcher2603 Blue collar and white collar salaries and income are closer than ever before in the US right now.
We have plenty of young people, they're just not consuming at rates that the previous generation was because it's not economically viable for them to do so, and the trend is furthering in that non-viable direction. It mirrors the argument about "labor shortage". It's not primarily a labor issue, its more a wage issue. Companies maximize profits by paying workers as little as possible, and thus working-age people are able to consume less, causing companies to be further incentivized to pay workers less in order to keep profits high, which further hampers working-age people's ability to consume, and the cycle continues further downward.
Thank you so much for your perspectives. You have been a major breath of fresh air in these times my friend!!
I work with China on the daily all day long. I find it very difficult to believe that these manufacturers I have fostered such long-term relationships with will not exist in 6 years.
All depends if people in the ~west for the most part will continue to support slavery or not. And your guys will still exist if PZ is right, they just will only sell to other slave tolerant slave societies.
Probably an exaggeration, but big companies fail all the time. Go look at the US corporate landscape from the 1960s and tell me how many of them are still around and flourishing. Or look at the state of Sears. Chinese companies that are overly reliant on US will be in trouble; ones that service the world market in general will probably be more stable.
China won't hard collapse imo. And I feel like America won't hard collapse either but we will have an economic collapse.
@@w8stral slavery? Are you saying the Chinese are slaves to their regime or something? It’s worded like a teenage discord political debate
@@JuliusEvolaGhost Can they own property? No. Is there a justice system? No. Can they live where they want in their own country? No. Can they leave their own country? No. Can they move what little money they do make outside the country? No. They are slaves.
Snow to sunshine... Your videos shift rapidly between the seasons every day.
He may shoot ten videos on one hike and four in a hotel:)
Zeihan is a geopolitical entity that can manifest at will within any national sphere.
I wonder if he shoots "spare videos" when he has time, and drops them when he is busy, so maybe he's still in sunny Florida like yesterday and shot this a few days ago in Colorado. Either that or it was pretty short trip to Florida.
Just like his opinions?
@@scottn2046 For sure he has some videos stashed so he doesn't do too many one day and then has nothing later on. He seems to be somewhat of an active public speaker, so it does make sense he'll be in different places over different days as he travels for his speaking engagements.
Thanks Peter.I’ve viewed many of your lectures and guest podcasts concerning the ‘big picture’ that brought us to where we are now.This short walk & talk crystallises you polemic perfectly.
Typical paid comment
Thanks for your superior indiffrence!
You're the man Peter!! What a knowledge you have man!! Only can love it!! Thx dude!❤
China’s economic boom definitely peaked in 2020 when it benefited short-term from the pandemic. It’s foreign policy is exceedingly clumsy beyond a sort of authoritarian mercantilism.
Mercantilism is one of the possible economic structures that can survive the end of globalism
It is much to early for this conclusion. China is in trouble but many other countries as well.
That all tracks. You have a masterful ability to give such complex models clarity. Thank you. I would have a 'lively discussion' about your characterization of our political system. I would argue that it is the very success of the elite in destroying the effective power of unions that has created a malignant tweedist plutocracy that dominates our political discourse. We are regional first past the post in representation, but the contestants are completely reliant and beholden to the plutocratic elite who fund them on both sides. The political shift we are experiencing is less a shifting of the deck chairs than an upheaval by the electorate becoming aware that they do not control their own system and being willing to go to extremes to overthrow it. (Not just with the christo fascist right, Obama was the pendulum swinging left looking for change that never appeared either.) That pendulum will swing higher and with greater consequence if that energy is not dissipated. The ultra right gets that and is willing and actively attempting to make sure they nail that pendulum in place on their side of the spectrum - a dangerous and foolish strategy. Deglobalization will stick because the economy of scale in mass producing and distributing goods is shifting with technological disruption. The decoupling of labor from productivity will lead to competitive advantage in localized production of goods, eventually down to the individual household. This is the driving reason that negates the necessity for a hegemonic police presence guaranteeing global security. The incredibly dangerous catalytic risk in that shift is that destructive power is now global and nuclear war in Ukraine, or Pakistan, or North Korea, has very real impact on our security. As the United States withdraws from it's role as policeman the world will either disintegrate into feuding local influences or it will come together to replace the US role with a truly representative global security system (the dreaded world government the elite have fired the fears of everyone with.) An overarching government for governments is a natural evolution of the playing field we are entering and it is necessary for a civilization that is able to provide well for its peoples. Global strategists should be illuminating this evolution and helping to prepare the ground for development and implementation of a new world order that guarantees individual human rights within all societies and ensures equitable relationships between regions and interests. There are many influential disruptive technological changes that will shape this landscape - our movement into virtual presences will change our concepts of nationalism and societal identification, the end of aging and disease will shift our generational demographic models like puree in a blender. The timeframe is a lot shorter than we realise and our current demographic modeling predicting labor shortages and the disruption of economies due to a smaller consumption base will have to be reformed. As always with humans we are excellent adapters and shitty preparers. it will take a catalytic global crisis to create enough liquid mobility to shape a new order - the UN was supposed to be that answer after world war 2 but the system wasn't prepared or structured to make it successful and it became coopted by security council nations. (Arguably with fair reason considering the laundry list of corruption and rights violations heading UN councils. LOL) You really don't want some of these countries to influence and control an enforcement organization with the power to dominate your ability to govern. It will however become necessary and inevitable for one dominant organization to supervise a globally interconnected society. If we or others try to do it by group force it will blow up in our faces. Literally. Preparing to shape that catalytic moment is the best we can do right now and hope there is enough left to do it well.
Chinas economic boom stopped in 2008 when non-productive debt took over, they have been amassing a debt burden since then, COVID has worsened the situation and still is, its debt burden is $57,000,000,000,000 approx. and counting. World Trade will continue with or without the U.S. as it has always done since ancient times, and if it does withdraw it economy will depreciate further, it will no longer be the reserve currency and it will not maintain its security budget, you don't need a big military to guard your back yard, especially when most of your citizens have six guns!?!
@@thomasherrin6798 I do not think the Doctor is saying America will stop protecting it's trade routes.. It will simply stop protecting trade that it has no involvement in.
I see America using it's navy to ensure trade continues with Europe, SE Asia (not with China so much, but Japan, Korea, Taiwan and potentially Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia).
Apart from that it will "Protect" trade with Australia and some South American countries (likely Chile).
The rest of the trade routes in the world? Not relevant to the USA. Don't expect an American lead Naval task force to keep African Pirates from taking over ships, Do not expect the USA Navy to care much about what happens in the middle east oil fields either.
This will actually make the USA economy even stronger, and it should make the US Dollar still the best option for a global currency.
Basically, America will do what the British Empire did for a few centuries. Protect it's trade with it's navy.
Peter, I wanted to tell you that it's SO refreshing to listen to an American who has a global view on everything and knows about what's going on everywhere. Sometimes American political commentators are a bit too blind wrt to Europe or Asia or LatAm and it gets frustrating. You're one of a kind! Thank you so much for sharing your insights 💜
🤨
It's not that easy as you seem to suggest.
Many factors come into play.
very rare indeed.
That all tracks. You have a masterful ability to give such complex models clarity. Thank you. I would have a 'lively discussion' about your characterization of our political system. I would argue that it is the very success of the elite in destroying the effective power of unions that has created a malignant tweedist plutocracy that dominates our political discourse. We are regional first past the post in representation, but the contestants are completely reliant and beholden to the plutocratic elite who fund them on both sides. The political shift we are experiencing is less a shifting of the deck chairs than an upheaval by the electorate becoming aware that they do not control their own system and being willing to go to extremes to overthrow it. (Not just with the christo fascist right, Obama was the pendulum swinging left looking for change that never appeared either.) That pendulum will swing higher and with greater consequence if that energy is not dissipated. The ultra right gets that and is willing and actively attempting to make sure they nail that pendulum in place on their side of the spectrum - a dangerous and foolish strategy. Deglobalization will stick because the economy of scale in mass producing and distributing goods is shifting with technological disruption. The decoupling of labor from productivity will lead to competitive advantage in localized production of goods, eventually down to the individual household. This is the driving reason that negates the necessity for a hegemonic police presence guaranteeing global security. The incredibly dangerous catalytic risk in that shift is that destructive power is now global and nuclear war in Ukraine, or Pakistan, or North Korea, has very real impact on our security. As the United States withdraws from it's role as policeman the world will either disintegrate into feuding local influences or it will come together to replace the US role with a truly representative global security system (the dreaded world government the elite have fired the fears of everyone with.) An overarching government for governments is a natural evolution of the playing field we are entering and it is necessary for a civilization that is able to provide well for its peoples. Global strategists should be illuminating this evolution and helping to prepare the ground for development and implementation of a new world order that guarantees individual human rights within all societies and ensures equitable relationships between regions and interests. There are many influential disruptive technological changes that will shape this landscape - our movement into virtual presences will change our concepts of nationalism and societal identification, the end of aging and disease will shift our generational demographic models like puree in a blender. The timeframe is a lot shorter than we realise and our current demographic modeling predicting labor shortages and the disruption of economies due to a smaller consumption base will have to be reformed. As always with humans we are excellent adapters and shitty preparers. it will take a catalytic global crisis to create enough liquid mobility to shape a new order - the UN was supposed to be that answer after world war 2 but the system wasn't prepared or structured to make it successful and it became coopted by security council nations. (Arguably with fair reason considering the laundry list of corruption and rights violations heading UN councils. LOL) You really don't want some of these countries to influence and control an enforcement organization with the power to dominate your ability to govern. It will however become necessary and inevitable for one dominant organization to supervise a globally interconnected society. If we or others try to do it by group force it will blow up in our faces. Literally. Preparing to shape that catalytic moment is the best we can do right now and hope there is enough left to do it well.
A global view... unlike the couple I met camping in Arizona, the wife said they were "Travelling around the world together, in their RV from coast to coast", she wasn't making a joke!
Don't forget home prices have risen 5 times while salaries have dropped. Young people have no buying power.
My daddy taught me about global economies beginning at age ten. Ten years later, I searched the world for verification. After ten years of confirmation, I firmly belief he encapsulated global monetary zeitgeist correctly. Peter Zeihan is my big brother and we three are in agreement - except for one thing: who has the biggest balls?
It's nice to see that Peter views children as just headaches now instead of furniture
Yeah... one of his few unsavory jokes that didn't stick.
I don't think that's necessarily his view, he's just describing how many people see it.
I love my expensive but pleasant children
Would you really prefer a headache over a nice chair? I feel like that's a downgrade.
He said they are expensive headaches, but I will push back and say they aren't expensive as long as you're willing to use the word "No." If you want to pay for a miseducation in a high-priced school that will teach nothing useful but will corrupt the soul of your child, that gets pricey.
"By then, China will be gone."
What an optimistic note to end on. Love these informative videos.
China is playing the long game, looking ahead 50, 60, even 100 years into the future. Wait a minute, where'd all the children go? Whoops.
No china means no consumer goods.
I love how he just casually slips in that China is going to be gone in 6 years at the end.
@@ethanbills1008 Only temporarily. Soon enough, supply chains will adapt to an absent China. And we can stop feeding the communist beast.
i love how having 20% of humanity getting screwed over = optimistic
For the sake of rural communities and non-industrialized food security, let's hope globalization is on its way out.
I'm a nurse and depend on China, to keep our life-saving medications stocked in our crash carts. If this isn't a part of national security, I can't even imagine what else isn't🙄
are there no other suppliers? Have U pointed this out to anyone? Tell them,if the **** hits the fan U'r covered and the sorta hero
@mike miller this is a known national security risk that neither side of the aisle has addressed for over a decade. Most of our IV solutions used to come from Haiti, until a hurricane wiped out the production facility. Then, after the fit hits the shan, we changed. The same will be true of the meds in my cynical opinion. Businesses don't spend money until they have to. Providence* is the worst of them all. Just ask former employees from mid management on down. The truth would shock you.
How do you know you depend on China? Who told you this?
@@3506Dodge the barcode lott# label on the meds tells me so....
@@hukphin740 The barcodes tell you that there is no possible world other than that which exists right now? They tell you that things cannot ever be other than they are at this minute in every detail? What vision!
Peter, Looks like Evergreen, hope Colorado works for you. I had a very satisfying 30 yrs, raise a family and a career, there.
You are about the smartest person I've ever known of or been exposed to. I so appreciate your hard work and marvelous presentations. This one is up there as a top fiver out of the 40-50 or so I have seen over the past few years. Thanks to you.
Read more, from a diverse range of authors and you will quickly understand that this guy is a loon.
Looks to be about 7500ft up.
Crimony I love these! And the boldness to swing for the fences w/o whimpering qualifications is one of my favorite aspects of your style.
deglobalization might be dangerous, scary, concerning... but I think in the end it might be good for us all.
I see it leading to war in some way shape or form, but I guess going to war over nonsense is just human nature.
How will it be good for us all?
I'm pretty sure it's going to be terrible for most people in most places around the world.
Because its inevitable. Id rather it happen now than in 20 years and be even worse. @@carlpanzram7081
Makes sense... there's no reason for Americans to subsidize our allies anymore, because they don't need it. I don't think there's a lot we could do to really subsidize Korea and Japan that would actually make a difference with the issues they're facing, and its far past time the Europeans took the lead in their own continent's security.
I prefer to think of it as 'localization' rather than 'deglobalization'.
That does seem less harsh. LOL
"Regionalization" is more apt.
It's more like westernization vs east
🤔
Thanks for another interesting video 👍🏾
Best news I've heard in 30 years brother! Let's hope we can kick this habit!❤
Thank you for taking us along for a hike and talking about this. I really appreciate your logic on this. I agree that we are about to see a major shift in the world; and I think that perhaps this isn't a bad thing. The goal all along was to reduce our population, while raising the quality of life. I certainly hope we can avoid nuking each other long enough to do that.
Who's the "population" that you want to reduce?
Typical paid comment
There's a very chilling old Japanese film Narayama bushikō (1983) that talks about a village that has to sacrifice their older generation to the gods in order to save the village from starvation. We are very close to that scenario now.
As I happen to agree with the above comment, can anyone give a reason or two that the US might not want to end globalization? The reset period would be hard and we'd spend time adjusting at a lower quality of life first, but after it evens out, we'd have tons of jobs in industry, higher wages and better quality of life. Is it just the fear that keeps us stuck in globalized ways? As he said, it's not even the same situation any more, since world powers have a lot more power than they used to, individually and collectively. Thanks for any responses
Love your perspectives here Peter! Keep it up man! Always looking forward to your videos.
There's a very chilling old Japanese film Narayama bushikō (1983) that talks about a village that has to sacrifice their older generation to the gods in order to save the village from starvation. We are very close to that scenario now.
That's not chilling in the slightest when you take a moment and observe objectively from a big picture nature point as we are literally the only species on this planet that not only keep those who do not actively contribute to survival alive, but actively reward them. No wolf pack would allow a wolf like that to remain. No deer would willingly bring food to another deer who would only sleep all day. No rabbit will go back and rescue their friend from a trap. Humans have this tendency, especially now, to think they are more important than anything else in life, but we aren't even close to being needed in any way, shape, or form except to ourselves. Every other species still has instincts that they can survive from. We are the only ones that still actively hand out Darwin Awards daily.
How China exits is the concerning bit.
How north korea exists is more concerning.
@@indrajeet5000 it exists just like the rest of the world does, it’s a land mass above current sea levels. It really shouldn’t worry you if you’re not worried about the formation of other land masses…
@@dylanking1895 New here are you.... Lol
@@pseudoscientist8010 newish, been watching a good few months now, why do you ask?
Confusion between "exits" and "exists" aside, those last 6 words were pretty chilling. I presume Peter means there will be some sort of state of political disruption in China that won't allow it to be an effective player or negotiator on the world stage any more, as it transitions into whatever it will become further down the line (military dictatorship. decentralized city-states or whatever). There will still be something there and whatever it is is going to affect geopolitics for quite a while yet.
I found your channel recently, and I find it very interesting, especially the way you analyze economic events and societies.
Keep up the Good work , all the best
I've been reading Peter for 20 years. Great macro analysis.
Try his latest book. It lays it out from the begining of time.
If you want a crash course
In my opinion, look for "peter zeihan keynote speaker 2019"
I think the presentation that he does in the video is a good summary/catch up to his work
Ive also have his 2 recent bools on audible. Worth it
@@vanillasnowx thank you very much for the recommendation
@@frosty3693 i will , thanks
Thank you for explaining this clearly! It's a lot to take in but It makes so much sense. Thank you!
Typical paid comment
Some of the best news I've heard in a long time.
HTF does he get a plane to fly over him in the woods? ! Strong work!
Peter is at his core indistinguishable from a real estate agent.
Positive, enthusiastic, confident.
No care for outcome, only turn over.
Demographics describe problems that in the long term we cannot breed ourselves out of with more people.
Peter lives somewhere in the foothills outside Denver, Evergreen maybe. Plenty of air traffic from Denver Intl., Air Force Academy, and the little planes like to use the foothills line as a navigation tool.
Also , there is some cat-fisher gill netting his comments, so you might get some bs replies.
Sounds like a real glib ahole.
@@MediumPointBallPoint Thanks, It was probably a neighbor's truck , but the joke was there. The catfishers have been busy, for sure. Strangely , I have yet to receive my free gift, after sending them my credit card number and all..
@@MediumPointBallPoint cat-fisher gill netting? I'm not familiar
For once the YT algorithm suggested something actually interesting. Glad I found your channel.
Fr
Is that statistic of the average US citizen being younger than the average Brazillian based on the fact the US has had a constant stream of immigration replacing the original population? I hope those future projections take into account that these new migrants are not actually building a society that will attract these previous levels of immigration.
Exactly.
Also if you want more on the fertility problem in the cities read: "The Decline of the West, Volume 2" by Oswald Spengler.
I've bought your book but here in Colombia it was not in stock. I ordered it and I'm patiently waiting to read it. I want to read your whole opinion, Peter. I think it is amazing and interesting.
dude is clueless. up next china invades india the start of WW3. chinese armies will reach spain. kills 2.5 billion. then follows a 7 year world wide society collapse. gold is worthless all that matters is who has food and who dont. THEN world recovers and one world government made 2048. deglobalization? NONSENSE it is one world government full speed ahead and never mind the 5 billion dead to make it happen.
I really hope you are right about almost every thing you talking about in your videos. You are clearly one of the few subject matter experts on them. I look forward to your videos.
Why does everyone have to think of globalization as good or bad? It's a natural consequence of economic disparity between countries. If one economy is better than another, it will shift labor to the lower cost region. As the economic fortunes of the countries equalize, the trade pressure decreases. It's like saying osmosis or convection is good or bad. It's just a natural process. Globalization will continue until the remaining economies of SE Asia, Africa and South America improve and exhaust their labor advantages. Then trade will be based more on natural resources unique to certain regions than on labor.
Peter, Does hyper-wealth and the impoverishment of the middle class mean that we are destroying our market, and our best chance of maintaining our way of life?
If we shuffle some of the responsibility for global security to our partners would that ease the burden on our market or put us in a vulnerable position?
I would like to see Peter explain exactly what he means when he says a country ends. I have watched his videos for more than a year and read his books but I think we need a deep dive into exactly what the "end of China" means. Let's not forget that it is currently the second largest economy, the largest (or 2nd largest) population, the largest manufacturer, and a 5,000-year-old culture. Understanding how that unwinds is critical to getting a feel for the coming decades.
He's referring to the current CCP led order.
Oh Peter does like to decry, demonise and right off China, so couldn’t couldn’t agree with you more, so just how does China unwind👇
ruclips.net/video/BlQKdoWCfAg/видео.html 🤔
Much of China's history has been tribalism in nature. The apparatus of globalization has lifted China out of poverty and famine. Despite having 2nd, most people, China has low consumption spending rate per citizen.
What Peter means is that China has to pivot to a consumer based growth model. China is not the cheapest place to produce goods anymore, so being able to sustain manufacturing as a growth model will lead to a stagnant economy.
Can't keep building bridges and apartments for GDP growth. Those are non performing assets.
China has a 5,000 year history of civil wars and run by different demographics. It has never been a fully unified country until after the 1940s.
War with the US.
Love these videos. Thanks from little old England.
9:00 “Howdy Neighbor” I suddenly flashed to South Park
Why is there a fire hydrant in the middle of the forest 🤔🤔🤔 near the start. I couldn't concentrate. I was scratching my noodle instead of listening lol
love the newsletter, part of my routine. thanks for sharing each morning, love our one way chats :)
Well said and this echoes some of the things my late father was telling me twenty years ago. Great content! Keep it up.
By security he means that the USN would blockade a nation from Global trade unless they provided USA and their dual citizens with favourable trade deals (essentially allowing a nation to be looted)
USA had the worlds largest economy because of this bullying tactic. This is ending
Great stuff thank you. I always learn so much listening to you
"it will take some threat to us, a real threat that scares us into engaging with our allies",is the part that gets me a little worried.
De-globalization can be a 5% reduction in trade. Not all trade is especially beneficial if it can be done locally with less transportation.
Reduction in competition can have some pretty big political implications locally. A lot of annoying out comes for entrepreneurs, but I think society as a whole is more stable this way.
But we like our exotic (or cheap) foreign stuff!
Virtually all of the worlds debt is held by the USA banking system, without trade settlement Nations would default and I would think that would crash the USA finical system... The US has been enslaving the world by debt now it may bite back. That's probably the only reason the US won't let Europe go back to Russia. Even home mortgages in other Nations are held by the USA, that's why Credit Suisse bank is in a jam now, they are pinched in the middle.
countries like the US, Canada and Australia are all almost capable of self sufficiency; its the europeans and asian nations who will suffer
in general globalization is a form of optimization, so globally produced goods are usually cheaper than those made locally.
The bad thing about globalization is that it moves whole factories and supply chains in relatively short time, so people lose their jobs and careers en masse and that is always a big political problem.
I really enjoy your analysis on geopolitics. I have an MA in International Strategic Analysis and you remind me of my favorite professor.
His complete lack of doubt in his opinion reminds me of
@@julianshepherd2038 no need to doubt yourself when you’re simply talking about demographics. 4 minus 2 equals 2 will always be true and isn’t an “opinion”.
@@rickstevenson9585 All estimates of the future should be tempered by a confidence estimate; showing your work and your error bars is the difference between analysis and punditry
@@rickstevenson9585 Exactly. And if Pete seems forceful (and I think sometimes he overdoes it when he gets outside of his lane), it’s because so many refuse to believe in “4-2 = 2”. (I don’t know if if you were making a 1984 reference, but it certainly seems to fit.)
Pete does sometimes go out on a limb in his conclusions (based on math and not merely wishful thinking), but I find it thrilling, like watching an acrobat do a death defying stunt. And I understand why he communicates without expressing doubts. He’s trying to push his signal through the noise of the authoritarian 2+2=5 crowd.
@@rickstevenson9585 Yes, but demographics is about people, and human behaviour has the rather curious habit of defying "simple math" prognostications. More than a few politicians have had to find this out the hard way. War, immigration, disease, environmental issues and economic growth or contraction, and the rational or irrational way humans and their institutions respond to these and other issues, have a way of throwing rather nasty curve balls. Zeihan is thought provoking, but anyone claiming to see the future needs to be taken with a whole mine full of salt, not merely a grain or two.
So where does this leave the WEF's plans for global dominance or do we separate the politics from the commerce?
Jesus CHRIST!!.....Peter. Like you said, we are going to need something to scare the shit out of us...and I think it's you, Peter. You are the thing that is scaring the shit out of us, and I think that's because we know you are right. Who in the HELL are you? And, where did you come from? This segment (video) was exceptional.
Thank you Dr. Zeihan, for explaining what no one dares to say so comprehensively.
id really like to see him debate someone with different views.
you need to read more...
Who cares it will all wash out in the end it will all work out it may swing this or that way that you don't like but hey that's life.
I discovered you on the Joe Rogan podcast and bought your book half way through. Incredible perspectives I've never heard before. I'll be paying close attention to what you're saying and whats happening over the next decades. Oh, and also, I'm planning on having at least 3 kids, so.... here's to the younger future!
Not sure about where you live, but in the northeast, having even one kid is hardly sustainable financially! Good luck!
Which book are you talking about?
@@gadohimself The End of the World is Just the Beginning
Read the bible the end of this system and a new world order from God Revelation chapter 21:1-2 😅 The Bible
@@loganmott2015 Yeah, I think the number is now past $300k ($16k+/yr) to raise a child to the age of 18 in the US.
Peter should have a podcast. 10 minutes isn’t enough for so many interesting things!
I’m glad to hear Peter emphasizing the population problems that my wife & I tried to prevent by having many children.
In the long run, free nations across the world need to remember that foreign trade isn’t the key to prosperity, developing their own people and resources is. Argentina’s foolish to want to use the dollar, and export their oil & gas.
This is just about the most comprehensive, succinct encapsulation of the complex current events and trajectories of the world.
Fascinating and prompting me to understand more about this. And I've had 3 children. There should be a medal for the folks who exceed the birthrate benchmark.
Modern medicine just needs to focus on making births at higher ages possible. As the human lifespan grows more and more and retirement ages raise it only makes sense for people to start having children at higher ages.
@@SuperCrow02 absolutely vile take
@@untitled795 Life spans are growing larger and larger. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if immortality is closer than we think.
@@untitled795 ...how? Stop projecting & get some therapy.
Or a tax cut
This is an extremely logical and methodical individual simply because of his expertise/training.
Listening to him isn't a chore anymore.
When others talk politics, they talk with subjective compassion but he speaks like a Professor would.
Fascinating.
Typical paid comment
@@humanbeing888 It sounds like if I put you and Peter in a room, you would catch some serious anxiety because of the intelligence difference.
@Sunny Sy if someone like Peter is considered intelligent to you, then you just embarrassed yourself
@Rudy Souw I just hear alot of talking and fluff. Why don't you create a video challenging his views?
Step up
or Shut up. Rookie
Good morning Peter - thank you so much for you synopsis - I appreciate how you boil things down because it allows me to digest it in but size chunks and enables me to do further research
I relistened to this and heard five more things. Too busy digesting the other five I guess. Plus I read one of his books. I appreciate his viewpoints.
It’s so refreshing to just hear a straightforward, rational take not colored by partisan politics.
Peter. I love these daily pieces! Also really glad you’re staying healthy buuut so you mind recording these when you’re not mildly winded? I listen to these in my headphones and it sounded like you were breathing in my ear. Love ya buddy!!!
He's exercising. We're along for the ride. I enjoy how Peter builds his briefs into what he's doing. Each atmosphere is different and he gets to kill two birds with one stone, sometimes three. Not to mention Colorado in winter is beautiful.
Once some boomer told me it’s not about the job. Well as life went on. It’s all about the job. Until I get the Fu money. It’s about what I do for it for 80 hours a day. Like to tell me that what I do for I third of my day for my whole life. Doesn’t matter. There’s no discernible difference between a me working as a deputy sheriff or a burger flipper. I worked union retail through the height of Covid. I am done with unions.
I recently found you
I truly love your videos
They are so informative
Your good teacher
Ty Peter
I will look for more videos
Just listening to it Im grasping for air.
I treat Zeihan the way I treat my horoscope. It sounds compelling and is entertaining but I wouldn't stake my life savings on his predictions.
Globalisation is NOT going away anytime soon or EVER
I find listening to LV Gave to get s better perspective...🤔
it’s the CIA story. it’s a neat story but it lacks detail. USA might have good demographics but not if you look at whites.
Agreed. He's bright, but sounds far too academic in his analysis, foregoing any comments on how the WEF and WHO are actively pursuing their goal of depopulating the world and replacing all governments with the NWO. Maybe he's a paid shill for disinformation?
exactly
Such awesome and rich content. I absolutely love Peters views and knowledge. I learn every single day.
Nice man bun.
All it ever takes to end a system is to stop complying. If nobody plays along its game over.
Getting everyone to end compliance sounds simple. Easy, too.
@@g0679 What is the outcome? No global trade, every country takes over their own water access and demands massive taxes and blocks access for competing countries so trade falls apart, maybe some global trade deals but that has to be limited to countries next door to each other or a group of countries that can be connected somehow by land or sea but the world without the USA is a world decoupled, a world that will go to massive wars over land and resources and trade links and access, just a fucking mess. Sure the world can do without the USA but then there is no law its everyman for himself, we have been there for hundreds of years it was only the British Empire and now the USA that holds the game together. If you think China will show up some corner of the world to protect other countries trade routes out of their good will? Fucking think again, they dont give 1 shit it's only what serves them. The USA sacrificed its own industry and ship building and everything to the benefit of the world and enjoy a period of low inflation in return but if the world kicks out the USA then it will close the door and re-industrialize in a country that has the resources, more land for agriculture than any other country and a low population to easily meet all needs for millennia so they don't need the outside world, just got to keep adding more nuclear weapons and more counter measures and be untouchable and the USA can live in isolation like fucking Kings with no debts and crazy wealth while the rest of the world is suffering famines, wars, trade collapse, end to free access of the seas and whatever else goes down. Is that a good world to live in? No. The EU will be long gone by then and war will return to Europe probably just Russia taking out anger on millions and millions of people and eating up most of Europe but would that harm the USA? No. This is why Putin was depressed that the USA countered him he expected to USA to just leave Ukraine alone because Russia taking over Ukraine is good for the USA it keeps a sword hanging over Europe which is a competitor to the USA so it helps the USA by Russia threatening Europe but he failed to see that the USA would support the democracy and freedom that people of Ukraine desire out of the Good will of Americans so the mentality in the USA to support people that want self determination is not yet gone, it will some day but not yet.
Always taken Zeihan's summaries, with a grain of salt.. Because they are just that, a summary. They also always seem to fit perfectly with current trends and interests, particularly on China.
he's a dummy who tells anxious americans what they want to hear
The Big red flag for me is he Never mentions our overlords and their nefarious agenda 2030 reset BS. Controlled opposition/distraction. They are the ones pulling All the geopolitical strings: instigating war with Russia, “Fundamentally Transforming America” by gutting every conceivable institution at all levels, having billionaires and American scientists launching plandemics in concert with China to destabilize the global order, supply chains, employment et al. But hey, throwing out clever speculation and making bank on RUclips is a great way to go$$$ in the scheme of things
It’s hard for me to take man buns in hipster glasses ideas of the world seriously. Seems like one of those too woke deals.
I have yet to see a more coherent explanation on globalization and why it exists. Take opinions with a grain of salt for sure, but I'm almost 40 and this is a good explanation of a key piece of history they didn't talk about when I was in school.
His hammer hits the nail on the head…. IMO.
We're deep in a Fourth Turning (Strauss and Howe). Time to circle the wagons and hunker down, for now is the winter of our discontent (Shakespeare).
The US-Netherlands-Japan (S Korea and Taiwan soon to be added?) Semiconductor Agreement is another nail in Globalization's coffin.
You paint in vivid, broad strokes Peter, but I think I need to read your book to see how deep the rabbit hole goes.
Once again your excellent video proves beyond a doubt that the real change needed is all voters having FREEDOM to vote on everything government wants to do. WTG on the excellent informative videos! Keep up the excellent hard work !
Voters have elected Trump and Biden as president. American voters are partisan sheep that believe the corrupt news outlets.
Whenever I watch Peter I'm conflicted! He is smart, knowledgeable, articulate, etc., so I want to take on board everything he's saying; but he also has a pony tail.. My mind doesn't know how to compute this dichotomy...
Thanks for inviting me on your walk. Excellent job sir.
I could listen to this man all day. 😊
Being in Colorado myself the area your in looks very familiar. I doubt my small little western slope town could or would offer you enough of an insensitive to tempt you to speak locally but if you ever are in the SW corner of the state doing a book signing I'll definitely be there. You do a great job of explaining a very complicated subject understandable. Thank you for sharing your thoughts. They have really helped me to understand what we are facing.
I hope he's using sunscreen. You too.
he's got a fantastic answer to every question...love it
Pro Union Pro Free Trade viewer here btw.
Peter’s tendency to favor generalization over nuance and state everything as a certainty rather than a probability really frustrates the scientist in me. Even if overall I often agree.
I also want to point out the likelihood of factionalism within the USA union movement between then historical manufacturing based unions like the UAW and the currently much more common unions comprising both government and the potential for a lot of union growth among service jobs like warehousing and hospitality (Amazon and Starbucks, Hilton etc).
The interesting part is inflation is directly correlated to the decline of China . They were the single most important entity to keeping prices unnaturally lower for a generation with cheap manufacturing labor. They were never going to be able to maintain that with higher wage growth . Now what not seen is we are in a technical revolution and less is required from human labor
This one is probably the best yet! Great job explaining and tying together different economic and historical threads.
The word is “confabulation” ….
Typical paid comment
Very enlightening,well spoken, and to the point. Thank you it's a welcome change.
I think there's more to this topic. It's not just the fact that there's fewer people, but the cost of things are high, while wages have stayed low. In the video, you mentioned the average age of a consumer being below 40. I jokingly thought "well damn, we better keep the boomers alive a while longer, they have all the extra cash." Us under 40 crowd have to live frugally, unless they're a tech worker. Globalization will die off simply because we can't afford anything.
im expected to work my ass off, just to break even on rent and utilities- WHILE getting an education just so I can work that off later... I have to penny pinch daily, and any energy or motivation I had to look forward to my future was sucked out of me. I am simply /lucky/ my Dad chose to work his ass off to take care of not only me, but my mother and brother as well. Its because of him I was able to study on my own and begin working on my own projects. If I didn't have the option of 'bumming' off my parents for a year, I'd be dead, homeless, or a soulless spiteful welfare recipient... My heart goes out to those that do not have the luxury of financial security.
Zeihen says a lot about that in his books and other videos. Half the boomers have reached retirement age, and are now spending their savings. He says that's a major cause of the labor shortage, which it will last until the Zoomers' children reach working age in the 2050s. Several other countries are now in population decline (China, Russia, Germany, Italy, etc). The US has kept even with a higher birth rate and immigration, but it's now about to slip back too. A declining and aging population means fewer working-age adults to subsidize the growing elderly.
@sluggo206 which is honestly needed to get back on track. Name one other species on this planet that not only keeps those who don't contribute alive, but actively reward them for it.
Anyone else think of *South Park* when he said "Howdy, neighbor" to the passing car?