The Shock of POPULATION Decline and Rising POPULISM (Darrell Bricker w/Brad Carr)
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- Опубликовано: 17 май 2024
- Dr. Darrell Bricker shares insights on population decline from his book, Empty Planet.
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00:00 - Extinction
00:20 - Immigration
01:21 - Depopulation
23:30 - Overcoming bias
31:21 - Joe Biden's gamble
32:30 - Voter turnout
33:28 - Political targeting
39:27 - Donald Trump as outsider
42:02 - Populist supercycle
43:10 - Power of geography
54:08 - Cost of family
55:36 - New baby boom
57:52 - Getting prepared
#depopulation #overpopulation #population
The Shock of POPULATION Decline and Rising POPULISM (Darrell Bricker w/Brad Carr)
The world population will drop below the 2.1 replacement rate in couple of decades. Immigration will eventually slow down even further, as nations who need immigrants will increase - and those who can offer immigrants will decrease in numbers.
thank you for sharing, it seems to look that way
thank god for that! Population decline is the saving grace for the human race and the planet we've been raping for the past 200+ years...
Nobody needs immigrants any more and never will. A shrinkage in population is good for everybody except capitalists.
It already has in much of the world. If current trends hold, pop will peak at about 10 bn, and then begin to rapidly decline. By 2100 China will have less than 600 mn people - they're already shrinking by at least 20,000 people A DAY, and it will accelerate over time.
@@WhizzingFish12 what about the Islamic world? Very little sign of any slowdown there...
Australia has had massive immigration for the last 12 years. Yet the median age of the population has only been reduced by 5 years. And, oddly enough, those migrants age at the same rate as the native-born.
Yes, and by inflating the demand on housing, it ensured the birth rate will never go up. Why have children so they will end up living in the pod and eating bugs? Screw the system.
Australia is a very large country ,but most of it would not support a large population.
I need some studies and research to proof that last statement
Malthus did not know the pill would be invented
Malthus is being proven correct. Have a look at David Attenborough's historical look at how the earth's resources have been diminished during his lifetime. He made the video when he was 93 years old. The loss of wild places is tragic.
Population collapse is the best thing that could happen to humanity.
A baby is two dependents: the child itself and the adult who must supervise it. The elderly are often self-sufficient and sometimes, even economically active. Children rarely are.
Children need education, oldies need health care, some more than others. Both are costly.
An aged society is just a matter of supporting the elderly instead of babies and their mothers,
What the growthists are really concerned about, is not how the young are burdened by the care of the elderly, but by the shortage of people to buy their stuff.
Yes, they don't really care about any of us.
Interesting, your stance is equally as dehumanising as the one you critique. The real point is to love human life.
This whole episode nearly guilted me into have a kid. lol, great interview Brad. This does need to be talked about!
Hey, thanks! Glad you enjoyed it. Kids make sense given your name, "Dingo Babies"
People forget that people who immigrate leave their home countries in worse shape.
Good point. Yes when young people leave it's a loss for that country, especially if they have a good education.
Overall it's not looking too good for mankind. I expect we will see the consequences of this very soon, if it hasn't started already.
People call me Mr Doom, but I think we're past the tipping point. Those if us who will live at least another 20 years will see interesting stuff happen.
They leave those countries poorer and poor people have more babies. So they become baby factories.
@@robertbrandywine Actually there birth rates are dropping.
@@minavanderleest9493 Slowly. But I maintain that this is because these poor African countries are becoming slightly wealthier. If you siphoned off all their best people, they would become poorer and birthrates would rise again.
@@robertbrandywine I think the world is heading for a depopulation moment. Even the poorest are having fewer children. Haiti, one of the worst poor nations, has a birth rate of 2.745 in 2023. A rate rate lower than 2022. And it's been trending down for years
Great interview!
Thank you! What stood out to you?
Wonderful interview Brad. Loving your podcasts and your channel. It’s unfortunate that anger and fear get more attention and the algorithms push harder… What you are bringing is next level and necessary for more people to hear. I will be sharing this
Thank you! Much appreciated!
I’m going to read the book. It’s funny how most people still think the global population is growing, when it’s just the opposite.
yes, it's important to get to the truth on population
The book is fascinating in terms of discoveries. It's a book about culture more than numbers.
The global population IS still growing. Only a few countries are actually shrinking. And Africa is still doubling itself every generation.
When a high proportion of the population is young and yet to have their families, the birth rate will still be high, even if those families are small.
@@chriswatson1698 I used to think that too until recently. But it’s not a small number of countries at this point, it’s most of them, including the most populous ones. And those countries in the developing world with many young people having small families is not enough to maintain population growth. The replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman-that’s needed to keep population numbers stable. In countries where that rate is still above 2.1, it is nevertheless trending downwards pretty quickly. Read “Empty Planet” by Darrel Bricker and John Ibbitson. It seriously opened my eyes but what’s happening and changed my understanding of the situation.
@@roboatnick6178 You are confusing birth rate with fertility rate. A low fertility rate will certainly lower the birth rate eventually, but not immediately.
When China started its one child policy, it recognized that it would take 30 years for the birth rate to be affected, and even longer for the population to start to shrink.
The one child policy was never intended to be permanent.
Does this mean i'm going to be able go on vacation and not have every cool place so stupid crowded?
Yeah, but fewer people might mean there won't be staff in hotels, no people running restaurants and maybe no flying because no people working with maintenance or service in airports etc. No taxi drivers. No electricians. No plumbers. Good luck going on vacation to wherever. 😉
@@sweden_is_xxxx all the better for camping 👍
@@Sarcasmarkus Yeah, that's cool too. 😉
The other thing he’s not mentioning about the youth market, is that the people who are having children are religious, and the more conservative the religion, the more children. The youth market will be more and more religious.
But they're sent to schools where they become good little Leftists.
Important topic here. Timestamps below
00:00 - Extinction
00:20 - Immigration
01:21 - Depopulation
23:30 - Overcoming bias
31:21 - Joe Biden's gamble
32:30 - Voter turnout
33:28 - Political targeting
39:27 - Donald Trump as outsider
42:02 - Populist supercycle
43:10 - Power of geography
54:08 - Cost of family
55:36 - New baby boom
57:52 - Getting prepared
... and not a word about ecological destruction, overfishing, ocean acidification, climate change, the decimation of bees, the impact of neo-colonialist hyper-individual Americanisation, and the upcoming water/lithium/neodymium/you name it resource wars.... Brad, face it, you're an ethno-nationalist ideologue and you've let your creed take precedence over common sense. The last thing this battered planet needs is more people on it, especially more developed-world people..
Trump was an outsider by having a tax on offshoring crap to China and building a US border wall, and nobody in the uniparty ever wanted that. That very much is economic.
That would help people demand more pay for their jobs. The law of supply and demand can't be repealed.
Anyway, I have a hard time visualizing a rising birth rate when people see a miserable future for their children. People work harder to get paid less, and that isn't stopping.
54:20 Family formation declines every time industrialization and urbanization eliminates the financial incentive to have any children. Any further decline in the economy make children an even more expensive hobby that few can handle.
Great choice of interviewee. I'm a fan
Infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible.
Gets one thinking about the meaning of life
Awesome.
Glad you think so!
I saw this problem I'm not an analyst but demographics has always fascinated me. as a genXer what all the push for population control. as a GenXer I've rebelled against this nonsense I have a family with 9 children. 😁
2:40 "from an economic perspective is problematic". Meaningless generalities. Because you fail and refuse to think /analyze reductionistically. For whom? Quantify ALL positives and negatives: for EACH INDIVIDUAL. How does each individual benefit from reduced global warming, not having to go to horrible jobs they don't want to go to because they were never born.
Yes - life WILL be harder for older people not having younger people to support them.
But the population needs to hit a maximum some time. And that means it has to TURN AROUND.
Therefore, by continuing to breed, you only DELAY the inevitable population maximum and subsequent suffering of old people with not enough workers to help them, and cause EVEN MORE old people to die without help.
Got it? You either have 1 billion old people die now, or you have 2 billion old people die in 30 years instead.
UNLESS GIVEN NEW SPECIFIC INFORMATION about how they die, quantifying their suffering, 2 billion suffering < 1 billion suffering
(the inequality < means X is worse than Y when X
Universe 25 comes to mind when I hear about population collapse.
Population collapse could lead to a lot of chaos and pain. As population gets older the health care most likely will become more expensive. Industries will suffer because of lower workforce and lower demand. As population collapses national debt will increase and it will be spread among less people. Some coutries will collapse under financial burden and with today's interconnected world it will ripple across the world. For example War in Ukraine had the possibility to create food shortages in many countries. Now imagine many countries collapsing at once.
Also, there is a MIT program that predicts civilization collapse by about 2040 and apparently we are ahead of schedule.
What utter rubbish. In the 1950s and 60s, my father supported himself, my mother and 4 children. Then women stopped having children and became worker/taxpayers themselves. So capitalist nations got a huge increase in their workforce.
Population shrinkage is just a case of supporting the elderly, instead of dependent children and their mothers.
Yes, health care is expensive, but modern elderly are mostly very fit and healthy. Education for children is getting more and more expensive.
@@chriswatson1698 We're living in a new world with a new reality. I suppose you have a number of years left? I'm 50 myself so in theory I should be around until at least 2050. I'm really looking forward to seeing what will happen to the world in that time.
However comparing the future with the 1950s? Totally unrealistic. Mankind has never faced this situation before, where population will stop growing and actually start declining. And that when we are 8-9 billion people getting older all the time with fewer and fewer children. Especially since East Asia and Europe have already started their decline. Only Africa will still be growing in a few years time.
What's the short term solution? Moving hundreds of millions of Africans north? Good luck with that...and that's not gonna solve the issue long term either in any case.
@@sweden_is_xxxx The population in Europe was suddenly diminished by a quarter, by the Black Death. The survivors did well out of it.
@@chriswatson1698 Yeah I know, and like with most diseases probably the old, sick and very young died off leaving behind the best part of the population. No wonder they did alright. This time it's the young who will disappear leaving behind grey haired people like myself. 😉
Good luck with that 10-50 years from now.
Comment I left on video by channel TechLead (or something). The video was titled "Stop Being Nice".
"I have learned not to waste my life applying for jobs and getting paid social security disability instead.
I don't make much, but at least I have not put in tons of hard work for some employer to only get cheated out of money owed me.
Unlike hard quantifiable objective math & science & also history done by professional historians,
the last thing anyone should take seriously is the evaluation of work performance by an employer.
There is no reason whatsoever that any employee should take THEIR opinion on whether that employee did a job or not seriously.
P.S. I just followed YOUR advice: I stopped being nice and am now 100% truthful.
And, as a militant Antinatalist, I am thrilled to see the worldwide antinatalism movement growing,
as we see that outlawing people having children, mandating vasectomies, mandating abortions,
is the last line and first line of defense against unjust labor-and-wealth inequalities."
By this logic, you shouldn't be alive. You should have removed yourself from the population to fight the man.
" If we don't reproduce ourselves, we'll be gone in 100 years."
Ok.....and?
So what?
The population point of view is one in which I strongly disagree. At age 71 having been around most of the US and much of Mexico, I can see the filth and destruction that all these people have brought to the table. The US is full of overpopulated filthy cities. Agriculture and overpopulation have destroyed the small animal and avian populations not to speak of our lakes and river systems. This is good?
thank you for sharing
The US is one of the least population dense countries in the world especially among wealthy countries.
@@todd1547 Have you driven through the US, west of the Mississippi, like
N Dakota down through Texas? All the good land, all the tillable land,
is in agriculture. You may not be growing people on that land, but you
are growing food to feed the population of the world. What isn't destroyed directly by people is destroyed feeding them.
@@paulsinn6096 I live in Texas, have lived in Iowa, have traveled throughout the country and the world and have worked in agriculture my entire career. You have no idea what you’re talking about.
@@todd1547 And exactly what is it that I don't understand? Why don't you tell me that the songbirds are not 90% gone. Why don't you tell me the wall to wall agricultural fields are full of small animals and birds. Why don't you tell me that NY, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Chicago, LA,
San Francisco, Camden, Detroit, Memphis, Houston, New Orleans, and many other big cities are good, clean, wholesome, low crime, bastions
of fine living where you want to raise a family. I've been all over Texas many times and like the state, but Houston is not what I'm looking for.
Des Moines has too many people, but IA is great. Explain yourself.
We need more tax slaves!
Such a brilliant podcast, loved it. I don’t think we will get out of this depopulation catastrophe. When we should be encouraging people to have more kids, we are actually making people feel guilty for not only having one kid, we are actually demonising humanity for existing by calling it a parasite for the “planet”.
And even if we suddenly raised fertility rates (by suddenly I mean 20-30 years), it will not help with replacement because we have to account for decades of below replacement fertility.
And any idiot in the West peddling the idea that “immigration” is the way to solve the problem, buddy, it’s a zero sum game. The population as a whole will still decline, may be slower at places with higher immigration but not as a whole.
And what does that look like? Majority Indians and Chinese in the Western world? I mean, where else the migrants will come from when like a third of the world is comprised of Indians and Chinese.
With White majority falling, is it hard to imagine the social consequences of that? Political and diplomatic consequences of that?
Looks like the future will be like a big, continuous stretch of a single city with rest of the world empty. And then one pandemic, just one, will wipe us out of existence.
Some people are saying that this has been engineered to get rid of the middle class so that the ultra wealthy can own more and have a virtually endless supply of poor people willing to work for peanuts to serve them.
we actually need less people for real
Too many wars..
I calculated the 0% Birth Rate Year for the World. I'm not done here's what I got so far. For each country I took the last seven years population drop average and divided it by the last known number. Look to all countries to start hiding this information as it will point to their military weakness and affect UN hand outs.
South Korea 2033
United States of America 2037
Japan 2043
Mexico 2069
Guatemala 2042
Canada 2051
Belize 2048
El Salvador 2083
Honduras 2062
Nicaragua 2101
Costa Rica 2045
Panama 2081
Colombia 2081
Ecuador (bwb) 2064
Venezuela 2097
Brazil 2056
Peru 2097
Bolivia 2046
Chile 2074
Argentina 2047
Paraguay 2106
Uruguay 2039
Europe
England 2046
Ireland 2040
Portugal 2066
Spain 2061
France 2081
Italy 2061
Belgium 2051
Netherlands 2097
Switzerland 2068
Germany 2096
Denmark 2075
Austria 2092
"The most valuable commodity I know of is information." Gordon Gekko from the film Wall Street (1987). Perhaps not the best role model to cite but in my own life I can attest that it is true. I once was negotiating the renewal in the mid 1980's of a contract worth millions and as a junior employee my top manager should have been there as the main negotiator but he failed to arrive. As I was shown into the clients' office I noticed on his desk a model of a formula one racing car and on the office walls pictures of the same. I was no fan of this sport being more arts biased but my father was and I had picked up a few facts. "Is that you with Ayrton Senna" I said. From that moment on the client talked only about his passion. After about 45 minutes he stopped, looked at his watch and said "Stephen is that the time suppose I'd better sign the contract" and he did without any negotiation and with the new price increase unquestioned. My information/knowledge, however scant, proved essential but it was accurate data I used. (I was promoted to HQ soon after that and was put in charge of the prestigious national accounts such as The Bank of England, The Stock Exchange and The National Trust the latter who I eventually went to work for so i received my reward!) I have always remembered Benjamin Disraeli's famous dictat "there are lies damn lies and statistics." Wilful ignorance of or biased manipulation of data will always result in eventually disaster and undoing of any plan. Only base your life on foundations built on rock never on sand and "all will be well and all manner of things will be well." (My apologies for commenting at length but such length as your interviews are of is so much better and knowledgeable than the soundbite world of the moribund "legacy media" or of Twitter, Tik-Tok et al. Please take heart in the knowledge that quality counts and is always appreciated by those in search of the truth. Thank you Brendan.)
steve crane, thank you for resisting the soundbite culture and being so thoughtful :)
@@BradCarr_ I was taught to be thoughtful particularly of others. I have thought for sometime now that the disease (dis-ease, not at ease with oneself) that we suffer from particularly in Western Civilisation is Thoughless Selfishness - selfishness on automatic pilot as it were which not only harms others but ourselves as well. I was educated in history and theology (I was an Anglican (Episcopalian) minister) but have added philosophy to that mix in recent years. I'm sure you have read or at least know of J.R.R. Tolkien, may I suggest that if you have not done so read his short story Leaf by Niggle for it encapsulates his mindset as well as my own. Thank you for responding to my comments please do not feel under any obligation to respond as I realise your time is limited.
58:10 Dementia is when the brain has a lack of animal nutrients and poisoned with heavy metals. A diet with little animal sourced foods and routine faxines will certainly bring people faster to Dementia.
WRONG. Huge false generalization of dementia. Scared snowflakes whine about IMAGINARY "poisoning" of food and water supply but REFUSE to address REAL evils like the MASS HOLOCAUST OF FACTORY FARMING.
So AI might help and people will be foved to take.care of themselves
Good. There are too many people in the world perhaps by a factor of 100. Will be good to have more space and more resources for other lifeforms.
Every channel talking about this just beats around the bush on the actual reasons why no one wants to have kids. Cheating hypergamous women? Men getting divorce raped and losing half there assets? Women initiating 80% of divorces? Etc,etc, etc, I could go on and on......
Found the red piller.
The spouse who initiates divorce is NOT the person who files the papers.
Divorce is initiated by the spouse who is first to violate the terms of the marital agreement: the marriage vows.
Charlie Munger!
Support Birthstrikers!
So…Brad, do you have children?
Lala land. The 'trope' DOES fit the narrative; the real tropes on display here are that endless 'economic' growth is both possible and desired and that the latest Western 'culture' represents that of the entire world, apparently both past and present. And I only watched the first 5 minutes.
Humanity cannot and will not survive at the current level of population and consumption; one or the other will be reduced, either by neccessity or by design.
How about talking about leftists and liberals breaking through the extremist conservative-centrist stranglehold of government?
Defending the status quo just for the sake of the status quo, instead of fighting for justice & fairness,
is an extremist position. Extremist has nothing to do with how many, what % of population, supports that position.
Fact: a majority of problems are caused by majority of people, either by how they vote or pollution/environmental/consumption problems. A tiny minority can be extremist or a majority can hold an extremist position. Extremist just means the negatives of a position greatly outweigh the positives.
I have ZERO interest in talking with/discussing anything with person X if person X is just going to gaslight the population and spout their worthless unimportant unoriginal opinions about what OTHERS (the population in general) thinks about position Y.
If person X wants to tell me the positives & negatives of position Y, wants to tell me if the positives outweigh the negatives or vice versa, then tell me. But I do NOT take X seriously if they tell me what they think person Z is, because, bottom line: TELEPATHIC POWERS DO NOT EXIST.
Depopulation ISN'T happening, yet. Population is still rising, but the rate of increase is decreasing. Countries like Japan that have started declining CAN recover - once conditions improve, but it will take a long time. Countries that can NEVER recover are those who allow huge immigration, as that space will then be permanently taken.
Better for people to PREVENT billions of deaths of both humans and nonhumans by NOT BREEDING than for humans to kill billions with Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) and for humans to breed and murder billions of animals in factory farms.
Yes. Sweden and some other European countries will NEVER recover. It's game over here.
Some people talk as if the only thing that matters is that there are people there. Well you take 100 million Nigerians and move them to South Korea and that country won't be Korean anymore, right? That country will instead have become a African country in East Asia.
However some people disagree. You know who they are of course. 😉
Never mind. I hope East Asia doesn't make the foolish decisions we've made here in Europe.
Interesting that Biden’s strategy in retrospect has to be viewed as the correct bet. Add in the new, long term anchor around the R’s neck of Roe v Wade being overturned. See Kansas.
very interesting how the midterms played out
Legal immigration is the correct solution not helter-skelter
@@ronaldcarrel5388 Great. Which plan for legal immigration reform do you support?
@@billsmith5109
One whereby the people that have applied thru legal means are vetted and then accepted on the countries needs like all other countries do it!
Abortion has no impact on demographics.