Toronto Condo Completions are Heading to Zero by 2030 | The Loonie Hour Episode 165

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  • Опубликовано: 19 дек 2024

Комментарии • 129

  • @roseoverdose6451
    @roseoverdose6451 14 дней назад +21

    i really like your art Rich. it's a vibesession.

  • @bjm5005
    @bjm5005 14 дней назад +17

    I have had two conversations with CRA this year asking for clarification on some things and was told they could not tell me what what to do because "we have a self electing tax system" and I should consult the guide, then offered to email a link to the guide. Absolutely useless! They do not have a problem telling you when you have done something wrong. Why is it so hard for them to tell you how to do it right? 3300 pages, we need some tax reform.

    • @spyderativ2438
      @spyderativ2438 13 дней назад +4

      We have too many useless DEI CRA agents that can only you to their website. You can hear background noises you know they working from home. Get high pay and pension.

  • @shanehall8909
    @shanehall8909 14 дней назад +12

    It’s good that Vancouver developers are now forced to cater more to the local market . Rather than trying to sell luxury units to foreign buyers for $2500 per sq ft.

  • @raycamenzuli8746
    @raycamenzuli8746 14 дней назад +8

    I disagree Rich, the police and hospitals are required and cannot really be replaced by a private entity. Canada Post, however, can be replaced by a private sector enterprise.

  • @dirtlump
    @dirtlump 14 дней назад +13

    How come nobody is highlighting Gov't finance(taxpayers) buying $30 Billion worth of Big Bank already CMHC insured(taxpayers) Mortgage Backed Securities back in March forming a good portion of this years Federal Deficit (the Fiscal update now delayed being presented to Parliament).... this $30 Billion of Gov't money obviously being reflected in Bank earnings ?

    • @rachelk8368
      @rachelk8368 14 дней назад +4

      THIS IS HUGE! None of my friends pay attention to this- it's just what main stream/ legacy media covers. People have no clue what is coming.

    • @luckyPiston
      @luckyPiston 13 дней назад +1

      Are the mortgage backed securities of junk or near junk status ? becuase if thats the case that could look bad for the gov..

    • @smity25ca
      @smity25ca 13 дней назад

      Why I’m buying physical Gold 🤷🏻‍♂️

    • @dutchgirl7603
      @dutchgirl7603 13 дней назад +1

      Considering the US issued a swap line to save Canada during the GFC. When the house of cards fall again Canada will become the 51st State.

  • @CanadianRealEstateChannel
    @CanadianRealEstateChannel 11 дней назад +1

    Eye-opening report on Toronto condo market!

  • @dirtlump
    @dirtlump 14 дней назад +14

    NOBODY wants nor can AFFORD the current ~40,000 GTA Condo's being completed the next ~24 Months anyways.... what's the point building MORE insolvent Condo projects ?

    • @tomaga5856
      @tomaga5856 14 дней назад +4

      I think you mean nobody wants them at the current price

    • @dirtlump
      @dirtlump 14 дней назад +3

      @@tomaga5856 I mean nobody wants them at any BoC rate maintained positive above the real zero bound on inflation moving forward ? Meaning at an even 3% immediate BoC rate assumption and current variable rate spreads(FORGET any fixed rate).... a maximum $5-$6/sq ft is about all that is viable within GTA median income servicing potential ?
      You can't 'push on a string'.... these condo projects are not viable devoid of the low-rate fueled speculative sentiment false demand/elevated price discovery they were initially financed under = receiverships/onsolvent !

    • @arjunsahgal2439
      @arjunsahgal2439 13 дней назад

      The problem is developers overbullilt the wrong product tiny units like in manhattan and hk. The condo crash is just starting, bottom 5 years out regardless of rates

  • @mogulrider
    @mogulrider 13 дней назад +3

    Very good discussion on precons. I was in Tokyo in 1990. My oh my does this sound familiar. 30yrs later and decades of drip, drip, drip in real estate. The burnt out carcasses in Tokyo investment community really looks like this country.

    • @datruth4766
      @datruth4766 13 дней назад

      They don't get it and as real estate professionals they really should.
      The "condo investors" are not in a bubble. The vast majority are people who leveraged their homes to buy a condo or 5, or investment property of some kind.
      When they can't close, or can't afford multiple mortgages, they will not be able to sell a condo and will have to take a $400,000 haircut on their primary residence.
      They believe this is almost over. None of the things that are going wrong have even happened yet! It has not even begun! High unemployment recession hasn't happened yet! Mortgage renewal wave hasn't happened yet! 40,000 condos with owners who can't afford them hasn't happened yet!
      They're blinding themselves! They just don't 'want' to believe it!

    • @mogulrider
      @mogulrider 13 дней назад +1

      @@datruth4766 It's Ok. They know it they just can't say it. The Japanization of real estate is real possibility and usual outcome from such a distorted market that was created. There are far better asset classes to invest in than this. No big deal really. The debt and malinvestment needs to clear. Until it does it'll drip like Japan possibly for decades.

    • @datruth4766
      @datruth4766 13 дней назад

      @@mogulrider I was too young at that time and half a world away. Must be interesting watching this with a model.
      Many other people could, but they are looking at it as... "bu, bu, but this time is different"

    • @datruth4766
      @datruth4766 13 дней назад

      @@mogulrider this is just the Canadian problems, when you factor in the various globe destabilizing events(some of which are mentioned in the video), it is hard to envision a housing market that doesn't drop another 50%.
      The very idea of a "globally synchronized recession", feels like it has all these Canadian catastrophes beat.

  • @kqh123
    @kqh123 13 дней назад +3

    You guys should really have a little noise effect at the end of the show. Thrown in the bass line, or the record scratch effect from the intro song - just like a 2 second callback to the intro music.
    Would be waay better than just ending the show in silence.

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  13 дней назад +1

      @@kqh123 good feedback

  • @jkuty2
    @jkuty2 14 дней назад +14

    The thumbnail says 2023. Title says 2030

  • @spyderativ2438
    @spyderativ2438 13 дней назад +2

    Overseas buyers can just walk away. Doubt if developer will be able to sue them

  • @AndreInThe416
    @AndreInThe416 14 дней назад +3

    You guys should speak to those who experienced the early 90s RE crash from the finance side. I paid a visit to an agent recently and flat out told him these selling prices are way too high. Even worse for in process construction. I maintain the occupancies and rental figures are not accurate. You have a classic bubble.

    • @miggio0
      @miggio0 14 дней назад

      as long as there are transactions at the current prices then the levels are fine. The Gov needs prices to stick in order to keep the financial system a float. You already got 20% pull back from peak, we are probably done.

    • @xinleizhang3209
      @xinleizhang3209 13 дней назад

      @@miggio0 But inventory are rising steadily every month. Sure there is transaction but there's alot more supply and supply coming on market. If you think its the peak, then your falling for hindsight bias. Better look at the prospect/forward thinking. Look at unemployment data, immigration contraction/quality, birth rate, exchange rate, people sentiment, income, foreign policy. Which area do you think is positive moving forward.

    • @shsal110
      @shsal110 13 дней назад +1

      There is going to be a massive bifurcation in the residential housing market. The quality, livable housing stock will not crash, but instead more or less keep up with inflation. The dog crates and other bottom tier dwellings will absolutely crater. How this works its way through the financial system and the government's response to it is still TBD

    • @samalexander5236
      @samalexander5236 13 дней назад

      Agree generally but Vancouver seems to be a different beast.

  • @dorothymaccurdy5006
    @dorothymaccurdy5006 14 дней назад +2

    as per google, Canada post has 23,000 management and 55,000 workers. That's 1 manager for every 2.39 workers.!!!

    • @luckyPiston
      @luckyPiston 13 дней назад +1

      1/3 of the empoloyees can give themselfs bonuses and rieses anytime they want , got forbed the other 2/3 should get any piese a that action !

  • @power7117
    @power7117 13 дней назад +2

    Rich you can't really compare the Post Office with Police and the Hospital...Post Office is low skilled labour..wages should at least be comparable to the private sector... much easier to replace mail carriers than Hospital staff or Police..

  • @dirtlump
    @dirtlump 14 дней назад +2

    The BoC is facing outright currency "debasement" based resurgent inflation under further rate cut deviation from US Fed Policy.
    Canadians are carrying just FAR too much DEBT !
    No point sugar coating the effects of further BoC rate policy cuts into a diverging Canadian economy where 8.9 Million Canadians(StatsCan) are now experiencing Food insecurity/Food Banks etc., with 50+% of Canadian Households struggling with unsustainable Debt loads.
    The BoC will lower rates.... but careful what you wish for because that 'fix' will merely postpone and worsen the inevitable inflation.

    • @edamameme1789
      @edamameme1789 14 дней назад

      they are introducing inflation on purpose to switch from cash to the CBDC digital dollar that they can control. No cash, no freedom.

  • @shanesteele778
    @shanesteele778 13 дней назад +1

    Its proof that housing vs incomes are far apart and prices need to come down more to make them affordable

  • @GreenBeanGreenBean
    @GreenBeanGreenBean 14 дней назад +2

    Most condos complete in spring or summer (not the winter).... so 50% of future supply is finishing in the next 6 months in gta...... then down to nothing being built for the next decade as cost of construction exceeds sellable price.
    Nothing was built in the 80s for this reason.

  • @senburgundy3632
    @senburgundy3632 13 дней назад

    Good vibes and mathematics! Thanks Loons

  • @wayneknodel3347
    @wayneknodel3347 13 дней назад +3

    The Titans of Stupidity have FINALLY broken the back of the economy. Unemployment rate has ratcheted up to 6.8%, auto industry is about to crap the crib, and of course the TO condo shitstorm is about to become legendary.
    The tides gone out, and turns out there are HORDES of skinnydippers.

  • @kylefordinvest
    @kylefordinvest 11 дней назад

    Super informative!

  • @bradp2117
    @bradp2117 14 дней назад +1

    Regarding Canada Post making or losing money, is the organization a Crown Corporation, if so why was it made a corp instead of a government service like police or health?

    • @the_ikiru
      @the_ikiru 13 дней назад

      Because it costs money to send mail or a package. It generates revenue. It's been profitable in the past.

  • @katherineauletavandervalk8222
    @katherineauletavandervalk8222 13 дней назад +1

    Big Fan! Thanks for your work! FYI Your title page says 2023 (not 2030)

  • @chrisskyllas1309
    @chrisskyllas1309 11 дней назад

    Canadian banks did well, except for TD... my gosh did they soil the bed. If you held TD the last two years, you lost money. Just awful.

  • @arjunsahgal2439
    @arjunsahgal2439 13 дней назад +1

    Cad dollar can hit 50cents USD with more rate cuts and tarrifs

  • @fretstain
    @fretstain 13 дней назад

    Good one guys. I really wish someone in power was even acknowledging the fact that housing starts are dead, let alone offering a solution

  • @tylerp5839
    @tylerp5839 12 дней назад

    It would be nice if you guys had the time to elaborate even further on some of these issues, jump down a few rabbit holes. I could do 3 hours

  • @9574845
    @9574845 14 дней назад +3

    Get Ken Sim on the pod please

  • @DJRS2178
    @DJRS2178 14 дней назад +5

    6mil home juat foreclosed on in kelowna for 4.8mil.... just the beginning, panic hasnt even set in

  • @fjt435
    @fjt435 13 дней назад

    Workers rights should always be important. I work for a railway here and we've been forced back to work yet again. As did the long shoreman just within the last couple months. If workers' rights, as a whole, increase, then one would assume it'd put upwards pressure on other businesses to stay competitive and offer good incentives for good employees. Having this government just force us back to work thoroughly disgusts me as it sets a terrible precedence.

  • @karlkuepper-cp3lt
    @karlkuepper-cp3lt 14 дней назад

    Great job boys. Ohhh these next 6 months will be interesting! “Schaden fruede” galore!

  • @SeanTheNoob
    @SeanTheNoob 13 дней назад

    The current bid will be your starting asking price next year. Sellers can’t fathom housing going down

  • @toddcarbno966
    @toddcarbno966 13 дней назад

    Canadian dollar dropped almost 1 cent on Friday. expect a 50 bp drop in interest rate next week.

  • @jamesdavidsmith4033
    @jamesdavidsmith4033 13 дней назад

    Prime water frontage and gold are generally safe. Everything else the gloves are off.
    🎉

  • @rexdansy2330
    @rexdansy2330 13 дней назад

    Hey Rich, I almost choked on my wine, when you said "why don't they just rent those condo's out". But then I realized that you don't live in British Columbia, where these nice Communistic Socialist NDP folks have made significant changes (little by little) to the Residential Tenancy Act which has now effectively changed the RTA dramatically and these changes, these new laws, have taken away a great many fundamental rights of property owners and landlords in general. NO ONE IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WOULD WANT TO BE A RESIDENTIAL LANDLORD IN BC. Read the ACT, or ask Steve. As someone once told me, the goal of communism and socialism is to end private ownership and have everything state owned. It doesn't take a genius to see that our goverments are going in that direction and want more and more government control of everything. I mean really, a government can enact laws and make tax changes that can put any private enterprise out of business, if they want to.

  • @blakeconnell6324
    @blakeconnell6324 12 дней назад

    Love me some good Looney Hour Math.
    Kieth and Rich, are we going to see you in the Azores? (wink)

  • @raycamenzuli8746
    @raycamenzuli8746 14 дней назад

    Then again, define "bundle", does that mean if I purchase the paint and glue at the same time that I purchase the model or does the paint and glue have to part of the same package?

  • @TheNewSchoolGamer
    @TheNewSchoolGamer 13 дней назад +1

    Well, 12% of people in Canada have their temporary visas expiring in 2025 to I'm gonna say we'll have a 50bps cut; if we get Trump tariffs our economy is coked

  • @Daniel-lm6yf
    @Daniel-lm6yf 13 дней назад

    If those presale investors factor in the currency loss, wow, that's pain!

  • @thomasbarter1593
    @thomasbarter1593 13 дней назад

    Hopefully, this also mirrors Canada's immigration intake

  • @samalexander5236
    @samalexander5236 13 дней назад

    Is Icecap getting audited? Keith seems to have a real thing for the Income Tax Act as of recent haha. Worst part is that Act doesn’t even include sales tax, you would need to add the Excise Tax Act in the mix for that.

  • @miggio0
    @miggio0 14 дней назад +1

    did you seriously put a 1 minute ad to start the video? boy oh boy the algo isn't going to like that. suggestion, replace the ad with a super quick 15 second intro, and move the ad to mid roll.

  • @tessaelkington2520
    @tessaelkington2520 13 дней назад

    Chill on the ads Boyz!!! They have doubled just like Trudys taxes😂

  • @andysorensen3474
    @andysorensen3474 14 дней назад +1

    The Grim Reaper cometh and will be sitting with dry powder to deploy in mid to late 2025.

  • @Stormshfter
    @Stormshfter 13 дней назад

    What happened in South Korea should be recognized by our current federal govt as a possible end result of their chosen path of governing.

  • @huntindustries
    @huntindustries 13 дней назад

    And Curv is giving away Porsches, they'll need to do two Carrera GTs per unit

  • @eventhorizon7978
    @eventhorizon7978 13 дней назад

    Canadian economy is stuck in the toilet 🚽. Real estate appreciation will save us!

  • @mediaburn2
    @mediaburn2 14 дней назад

    Why are we not building trailer parks any more?

  • @ilikeshroomgals
    @ilikeshroomgals 14 дней назад

    Posties are getting screwed in Canada and the States.

  • @tomaga5856
    @tomaga5856 14 дней назад

    Are we not saving $2B per day that Canada post strikes?

  • @isabelbozzo6945
    @isabelbozzo6945 14 дней назад

    Subtle ad for a condo Steve? Buy now !!!!! before the dog crates run out?

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  13 дней назад

      @@isabelbozzo6945 what lol

  • @DJRS2178
    @DJRS2178 14 дней назад

    What dont realtors understand? Demand is 0, theres no reason to build. Over supply. Price crash follows.

  • @sonnyyeung6060
    @sonnyyeung6060 14 дней назад

    Cut at BoC next week of .25%

  • @trizvfx
    @trizvfx 13 дней назад +1

    50 basis

  • @btfrost
    @btfrost 8 дней назад

    Looking at the salaries the postal workers get it’s no surprise they’re striking given the weather they have to ensure. These guys love to whine about not getting services, but they’d never work in rain, snow, sleet, and hail for 50k either.

  • @DJRS2178
    @DJRS2178 14 дней назад

    Another week, same story. Its over. Most are still in denial.

  • @ReyTubay-s3w
    @ReyTubay-s3w 14 дней назад

    Profunds stop paying interest on my passive precon investments 😮

  • @davidpartington7847
    @davidpartington7847 13 дней назад

    Hi loonies. Question for boomer. How would an average real estate investor sub $10M AUM hedge their exposure to Canadian residential real estate equity?

  • @wesleylawrence6439
    @wesleylawrence6439 14 дней назад

    Would it make sense to get a home equity line of credit and buy a few bitcoin and rent my basement for 3grand a month to pay the bills?

  • @janusaflorida7909
    @janusaflorida7909 13 дней назад

    "|Thx to Boomer Dicker financial markets comments for coming near term ....there is a recession predicted in US for next four
    years...unemployment continuing claims are rising and accorindg to S&P Case Shiller recent report, home prices have been falling
    for the past three months....Many saying home prices in US have peaked. Great vlog look forward to next week.

  • @Picklemedia
    @Picklemedia 14 дней назад +1

    @19:30 😲

  • @cortlandlaidlaw3888
    @cortlandlaidlaw3888 14 дней назад +1

    SK baby

  • @DJRS2178
    @DJRS2178 14 дней назад

    Walk aways will begin next year when the stock market crashes.

  • @0kkin
    @0kkin 11 дней назад

    58:27 👁️👄👁️ “3…”

  • @luckyPiston
    @luckyPiston 13 дней назад

    Germany must be all shits a giggles happy they jumped on the "Lets help the others make war in Ukriane" band wagon !!

  • @lb9918
    @lb9918 14 дней назад

    More shenanigans to come

  • @GS0021
    @GS0021 14 дней назад

    Boomer has been saying “market is about to roll over” since 2021.
    He will be eventually right (people would have missed 100% gains by then )

    • @shanehall8909
      @shanehall8909 14 дней назад

      It did roll over in 2022. May happen again in 2026. The US is in a bull market 75% of the time.

  • @BobaVolcano
    @BobaVolcano 14 дней назад

    23:25 TD investors crying everywhere!

  • @roseoverdose6451
    @roseoverdose6451 14 дней назад

    Let's go boomer... 50 points!!! get the new prime minister in asap, one who supports business and innovation... let's turn this ship around! and bring back AirBnBs in BC!! Let's go!!!

  • @tommywong3147
    @tommywong3147 14 дней назад

    Probably new type of housing. Japanese style 800-1000 sqft single detached housing . Its denser than townhouses we have here.

    • @tylerp5839
      @tylerp5839 12 дней назад

      Get out of here Wong, we're not stuck on a 10sq km island! You can live your family less life In a dog crate but not us buddy, we don't want to live like that

  • @jefflynch3637
    @jefflynch3637 13 дней назад +2

    Hey boys, big fan of the show but I have some constructive criticism.
    Tou gotta keep the conversation moving. Way too many unnecessary jokes and dragging on conversations with no value. I spoke to my other friends who listen to the show and they say the same thing.

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  13 дней назад +2

      @@jefflynch3637 thanks, fair. But We also get feedback suggesting they like the easy going flow / jokes.

    • @tylerp5839
      @tylerp5839 12 дней назад +1

      ​@saretsky this. It's called looney hour for a reason!

  • @Zach-jt5zr
    @Zach-jt5zr 14 дней назад +1

    I’m favoured financially with Bitcoin ETFs,Thank you buddy.$63,700 biweekly profit regardless of how bad it gets on the economy

  • @quantifiablyqorrect2905
    @quantifiablyqorrect2905 14 дней назад +1

    Crypto is a wayyy better play than the massively overregulated housing market. Hex to $1 😊

    • @ethimself5064
      @ethimself5064 14 дней назад

      Not anymore - watch it crash within 12 months or so

    • @darnold1984
      @darnold1984 14 дней назад +1

      Richard hearts scam coin ponzi?
      My fcking sides

    • @Picklemedia
      @Picklemedia 14 дней назад

      As an investment, true for now.
      Stock market has outperformed housing and crypto has outperformed the stock market, at least in the last decade. Higher the risk, higher the reward. I wish I bought crypto instead of silver 8 years ago but you live and learn

    • @icecoldchilipreppers
      @icecoldchilipreppers 14 дней назад

      @@ethimself5064 after another 3x runup on bitcoin and 10x+ on all the alts, yeah, sell when things get overheated. same as housing market just ten times faster

    • @icecoldchilipreppers
      @icecoldchilipreppers 14 дней назад +1

      @@Picklemedia bought my first bitcoin for 8g cad

  • @tvh6095
    @tvh6095 13 дней назад

    BUY BITCOIN!!!

  • @marcoalbanese8221
    @marcoalbanese8221 13 дней назад +1

    Steve, it’s pronounced- Sa/co/ma/no.
    Great show guys!

  • @adama9032
    @adama9032 12 дней назад

    The second Steve wants to get into how bad the numbers are they change the subject . Very dishonest co host

  • @GearsDemon
    @GearsDemon 13 дней назад +1

    18:56