Three things to note here: (1) I called the seven out too early at 3:55. Timing was off in the edit. Sorry. (2) I should have had it lay the odds right away without the puck needing to be on and (3) I have it programmed to not lay odds if we've lost the come bets ( no replacement). I think it would have been better if I was more consistent - that is, if the DP is made, then the DP odds are also laid. But I hope it's still entertaining and informative for you :)
Fantastic content. Certainly the most unbiased craps content on the internet. Yep imo you’re up there with Wizard of Odds! Please keep up the good and honest work. Thank you!
Glad I found this channel. I usually watch Color Up, but with live rolls and 10 shooter sessions, you can only get so much information. Love the histograms! I think I would like to see percentages above all bins from the get-go, though, or maybe a have a y-axis included.
Great😅 so.. one thing i would like to see. What about win goals and stopping when ahead? Sure, if you have to go all the way to 10 shooters, some sessions would have been up, then came back down. Can you parse the data to see what a good wingoal and stop looks like? Say i buy-in for $600 and want to win 20% or 30%.. What's that look like? BdB
Yes, I have been thinking about this quite a bit. I am thinking to portray it similar to the bankroll ("if the player had stopped when they were up, what would their win be?" but I am open to suggestions. It will probably be a few more videos before I can incorporate this, but I will get there eventually :)
Another great video. Would it be worthwhile comparing expected house edge to observed house edge in future strategy simulations? Though with your high “n” I imagine it should really trend toward expected pretty closely.
Yep, that's why I bumped up the numbers - originally I was doing 1,000 or 10,000 but the variation between runs was just too much and it felt misleading. I could have modeled the distribution across 30 or so runs, but it was easier to increase the number of iterations :) I always do a check - but I don't always discuss it in the video.
New subscriber here. So you’re saying if I have 609 bankroll and play 10 shooters on a $15 table, I have 99% to survive, what is your definition of bankroll survival?
It's the lowest the bankroll went over the ten shooters. So 99% of the simulated players never had a bankroll that fell less than $609 from their original bankroll.
@@scottgunerman You could interpret it that way, but it's not really "correct" for me to say it that way. I can only report on what I observed in the simulation, so it's more like "if you played this strategy 100,000 times, 99,000 times your bankroll would have never fell below $609 from your starting bankroll."
What does 100x odds look like when laying? Is that limit at the amount you could win (so at a $15 table the max win is 100x $1500, so the lay on the 4/10 is 2x that ($3000)?
If you $15 table then you can lay 100x it which is $1500. If it’s a 4/10, you only win $750 like a normal lay odds. Max lay will be $1500 for any number.
Three things to note here: (1) I called the seven out too early at 3:55. Timing was off in the edit. Sorry. (2) I should have had it lay the odds right away without the puck needing to be on and (3) I have it programmed to not lay odds if we've lost the come bets ( no replacement). I think it would have been better if I was more consistent - that is, if the DP is made, then the DP odds are also laid.
But I hope it's still entertaining and informative for you :)
Fantastic content. Certainly the most unbiased craps content on the internet. Yep imo you’re up there with Wizard of Odds! Please keep up the good and honest work. Thank you!
It's such a fun game! Just helps to know what you're getting into!
Once again, excellent work!
truly a claasic vid for any craps player....................... up there with g changs work on you tube
Can you please do a session with no odds and no replacement ever
👍 it's gonna be a slow grind though:)
Glad I found this channel. I usually watch Color Up, but with live rolls and 10 shooter sessions, you can only get so much information. Love the histograms! I think I would like to see percentages above all bins from the get-go, though, or maybe a have a y-axis included.
Excellent idea! Thanks for subscribing :)
Great work. Enjoying your videos!
Likewise! Thank you so much!
Thanks again for all your hard work
My pleasure!
Hate this strategy. Love the video!
Ha! Thank you!
Great😅
so.. one thing i would like to see. What about win goals and stopping when ahead? Sure, if you have to go all the way to 10 shooters, some sessions would have been up, then came back down.
Can you parse the data to see what a good wingoal and stop looks like?
Say i buy-in for $600 and want to win 20% or 30%..
What's that look like?
BdB
Yes, I have been thinking about this quite a bit. I am thinking to portray it similar to the bankroll ("if the player had stopped when they were up, what would their win be?" but I am open to suggestions.
It will probably be a few more videos before I can incorporate this, but I will get there eventually :)
superb,,
Another great video.
Would it be worthwhile comparing expected house edge to observed house edge in future strategy simulations? Though with your high “n” I imagine it should really trend toward expected pretty closely.
Yep, that's why I bumped up the numbers - originally I was doing 1,000 or 10,000 but the variation between runs was just too much and it felt misleading. I could have modeled the distribution across 30 or so runs, but it was easier to increase the number of iterations :)
I always do a check - but I don't always discuss it in the video.
Correct my statistical ignorance here, but does variance of a particular strategy equate to or approximate bankroll need/risk of ruin? Just curious.
Can you do the same strategy except only lays so that way the sevens dont knock out the don’ts
Can you run the low and slow brisket strat please?
New subscriber here. So you’re saying if I have 609 bankroll and play 10 shooters on a $15 table, I have 99% to survive, what is your definition of bankroll survival?
It's the lowest the bankroll went over the ten shooters. So 99% of the simulated players never had a bankroll that fell less than $609 from their original bankroll.
@ hmmm. Ok, so if I had 609 bankroll, played that strategy on a $15 table there is a 99% chance I won’t lose it all? This is confusing to me!
@@scottgunerman You could interpret it that way, but it's not really "correct" for me to say it that way.
I can only report on what I observed in the simulation, so it's more like "if you played this strategy 100,000 times, 99,000 times your bankroll would have never fell below $609 from your starting bankroll."
I'm not using any statistical theory to derive the inference. I'm just reporting on what happened when I simulated it.
@@DiceData in the video did u mention the starting bankroll?
please do with 100x odds.
What does 100x odds look like when laying? Is that limit at the amount you could win (so at a $15 table the max win is 100x $1500, so the lay on the 4/10 is 2x that ($3000)?
If you $15 table then you can lay 100x it which is $1500. If it’s a 4/10, you only win $750 like a normal lay odds. Max lay will be $1500 for any number.