“I think that people sometimes set the bar too low on life outcomes they are satisfied with” is the best expression I’ve ever heard for what happens to risk-averse people.
There’s so much survival bias going on in this conversation. For every Scott/Nate who left Banking/Consulting for online poker, there are 5+ failures who come crawling back and never regain their place.
I 100% agree. I’m still excited to read Nate’s book, but I wonder how much of the tactical risk taken by The River is backstopped by rich parents. I also go all in way too much at the poker table, but since I don’t have Walter Isaacson to mythologize it for me, people (rightly) just call me a bad and undisciplined poker player.
@@kevintheshane Rich parents and luck. You can only play one hand if you go all-in with high stakes and lose…unless you have the backstop to re-up like you said; or, you just happen to win that hand (and then win 2-3 more in a row, which, given how many people there are, isn’t so uncommon)
@@kevintheshaneI also think that tactical risk and having a “gambling gene” are sometimes confused. Elon took risks no sound tactician could have logically rationalized with Tesla and SpaceX and beat the odds.
@@golfinguru11 zip2 paypal tesla spacex boring neurolink on and on.... that is a pretty good track record. this assessment of his risk profile in business is way off. not sure how he plays a poker hand applies to how he creates businesses.
I’ve listened to Nate describe his world view on several podcasts. My net takeaway: The “River” folks are the ones that would love to have a button that’s blows up the world, expecting that it would evolve as a “better place” (by their individual description) the next time. Unfortunately, they would keep pressing that button over & over, ad infinitum, until the world met *their* expectations. No consideration for what that does to anyone else. Scott’s right: Risky behavior, especially with a big win, too often results in much more risky behavior. That’s fine, until their risk has an adverse effect on others. OG observation.
Can Kamala take a punch? Or, was she a DEI hire who planned a coup. Trump took a bullet, got up, said fight, fight, fight - a bad ass leader fighting for Americans while USA is in a proxy war with largest nuclear power in the world. Trump 2024
Nate is really stuck on Shapiro. Shapiro is good, but the GOP wanted Shapiro because they had negative oppo research on him, and they knew they could alienate the pro-Palestinian youth vote. With Walz, the Dems get a solid VP candidate without polarizing baggage, but Shapiro can still campaign on Dem's behalf.
@@stevechance150 Ah, yes, the classic 'I-didn't-like-what-he-said-so-he's-a-clown' defense. You're quite the intellectual heavyweight, aren't you? First Sir Niall Ferguson, now me. Guess I’m in good company 😉
@@bwt6885 Josh Shapiro, a popular moderate Democratic governor would have been a better VP selection based on her ability to secure Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. Minnesota is already locked in for Dems so Walz is a wash.
The reporting is out there on the VP process. Shapiro wanted to a serious voice in the room and wanted to have a say in things. Walz walked in and said to Harris: What can I do for you?
Great podcast, I disagree with some of Nate's thoughts but overall good insights and a lot to learn here. I disagree with what some of what Nate said "I believe people should take more risk" I personally believe that people should take more **smart** risk, but not more risk. We already live in an era where people chase unaffordable material possessions, prohibitively expensive education, lifestyle choices out of reach and more. I believe very few people understand the true meaning of risk and the analysis needed before taking any action. For some (very few) people calculating risks comes naturally and it's just something that is done before taking any decision, but most of the people don't even know what risk really means and it's clear by their lifestyles.
Nate didn't mention anything about the role of independents in the upcoming election. They may represent up to a third of the electorate. Won't they be the deciding factor in November?
Kind of. Its important to note though that the vast majority of registered "independents" are not non partisan. Most of them always vote for their preferred party.
I always look to the last midterms. Something happened there that was unexpected. The GOP did not retake the House in a big wave which is lately typical when the opposing party is in the Whitehouse. Knowing pundits say it was due to the independent vote. Will it show up again in November? That is the big question.
I really enjoy both the speakers here but was actually disappointed by this interview. Prof G has a great knack for distilling topics and human psychology. Nate Silver's superpower is following the data and being extremely objective. Despite them having opposing skill sets, they both seemed to miss the mark on the election. Sure the numbers say that Shapiro is the right pick, but success in Pennsylvania doesn't necessarily translate to success elsewhere, especially when a significant number of progressive democrats are hostile to him. And maybe Scott liked Shapiro and enjoyed that he was an economic centrist but this ignores the fact that Trump's entire gameplay is to find attack lines and pursue the attacks relentlessly. He's struggling because there is virtually nothing to attack with Walz. What? 6 years ago he misspoke? Big deal.
BTW there is plenty of reporting on Shapiro not getting picked. Nate Silver has a proven track record of being bad at these things. Why are people still giving him the time of day?
My advice to everyone is this : if you want to grow big this year especially in your finances. Be willing to make investments. Saving is great but investing puts you on a pedestal where you wouldnt have to worry about savings as you do now. Thanks to larysa Caba, my portolio is doing really great and im proud of the decisions i made last year.
I feel one Of the greatest challenges that we first timers face in the ma rket is that we end up losing all we have,making it difficult to find ourselves back to our feet. My biggest advice is to always seek the services of a professional just like I did when I ventured into it for the first time. Big thanks to Larysa Caba. I now make huge profits by weekly through her services while still learning to stand on my own.
I have never seen a trader as open and transparent as Larysa Caba with her clients. The way she decides to make a profit for her clients. she allows you to express your fears and she still rests your fears and that is my respect. I don't normally comment on videos, but this word should be included. she is really cool.
I'm new to this and have heard that now is an excellent time to buy. However, I currently have cash sitting in my bank account that I would really like to put to good use because inflation is at an all-time high. Who is this coach that you mention, and do you mind if I look them up?
I feel this is quite an easy one. You already have her name which makes it easy for you. Just look up her name online. I’m sure you will come across her. That’s how I found her too.
Given his recent outlook on the election and the fact that he's incentivized by Peter Thiel's funding of Polymarket, I take this whole conversation with a huge grain of salt
Nate spoke of his media business being better at smaller scale and the reasons he gave was keeping more of the profits himself and not having to pay employees who make dubious contributions. That’s fine for him, but the end product suffers. I gave up on reading his Substack after loving his work on 538. He desperately needs an editor. He makes a lot of typos and often words things confusingly. The same can be said of most Substack Superstars. When they break out of traditional media, they have no editors above them, and no on the ground reporters below them. They end writing a lot of sloppy blog posts about “what happened on Twitter today.”
Given that half the democrats call the Israel conflict a genocide and Shapiro has been heavily pro-Israel, it was prudent for the Kmala campaign to not pick him?
I listen to Nate silver talking about the current political situation and it's clear he has no insight whatsoever beyond what was already in the news 2 weeks ago. And to think that anyone should take his advice on something on a political move is ridiculous
I was a big 538 fan back in 2016. IT was fresh and new but it eventually got boring and largely irrelevant. I agree, he does not know politics at all. Just yesterdays news.
30:59 - Shapiro is looking at potus. If KH wins… he needs to wait until ‘32 unless he’s willing to risk a primary against the first sitting madam President. He KH looses, Shapiro could stand a chance in ‘28 primaries but with a huge more progressive leaning field of choices.
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
Not picking Shapiro is one knock against Harris as a competent politician. It will be interesting to see where things are after the first debate. The Democrat establishment may not be capable of getting the ball across the line.
No mention of KH having done ZERO press conferences? Just campaigning by showing up to concerts? Yeah man she’s doing a great job 🙄 what about her plan to tax unrealized gains?
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
“I think that people sometimes set the bar too low on life outcomes they are satisfied with” is the best expression I’ve ever heard for what happens to risk-averse people.
There’s so much survival bias going on in this conversation. For every Scott/Nate who left Banking/Consulting for online poker, there are 5+ failures who come crawling back and never regain their place.
I 100% agree. I’m still excited to read Nate’s book, but I wonder how much of the tactical risk taken by The River is backstopped by rich parents. I also go all in way too much at the poker table, but since I don’t have Walter Isaacson to mythologize it for me, people (rightly) just call me a bad and undisciplined poker player.
@@kevintheshane Rich parents and luck. You can only play one hand if you go all-in with high stakes and lose…unless you have the backstop to re-up like you said; or, you just happen to win that hand (and then win 2-3 more in a row, which, given how many people there are, isn’t so uncommon)
@@kevintheshaneI also think that tactical risk and having a “gambling gene” are sometimes confused. Elon took risks no sound tactician could have logically rationalized with Tesla and SpaceX and beat the odds.
yes they only discuss the successful numerators. no denominators here.
@@golfinguru11 zip2 paypal tesla spacex boring neurolink on and on.... that is a pretty good track record. this assessment of his risk profile in business is way off. not sure how he plays a poker hand applies to how he creates businesses.
Love Nate Silver....one of those dudes you see his brain working all the time. Interesting person. Great interview
I’ve listened to Nate describe his world view on several podcasts. My net takeaway: The “River” folks are the ones that would love to have a button that’s blows up the world, expecting that it would evolve as a “better place” (by their individual description) the next time. Unfortunately, they would keep pressing that button over & over, ad infinitum, until the world met *their* expectations. No consideration for what that does to anyone else. Scott’s right: Risky behavior, especially with a big win, too often results in much more risky behavior. That’s fine, until their risk has an adverse effect on others. OG observation.
I love that you put out episodes with great frequency!
Great talk, thanks for doing this!
I think Mike Tyson put Nate Silver's point well when he said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face".
Can Kamala take a punch? Or, was she a DEI hire who planned a coup. Trump took a bullet, got up, said fight, fight, fight - a bad ass leader fighting for Americans while USA is in a proxy war with largest nuclear power in the world. Trump 2024
Nate is really stuck on Shapiro. Shapiro is good, but the GOP wanted Shapiro because they had negative oppo research on him, and they knew they could alienate the pro-Palestinian youth vote. With Walz, the Dems get a solid VP candidate without polarizing baggage, but Shapiro can still campaign on Dem's behalf.
She had one job: choose a moderate from a swing state. She botched it.
@@TooAjit2Quit Explain.
@@TooAjit2QuitAjit is just a Trump MAGA zombie. You can ignore him.
@@stevechance150 Ah, yes, the classic 'I-didn't-like-what-he-said-so-he's-a-clown' defense. You're quite the intellectual heavyweight, aren't you? First Sir Niall Ferguson, now me. Guess I’m in good company 😉
@@bwt6885 Josh Shapiro, a popular moderate Democratic governor would have been a better VP selection based on her ability to secure Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. Minnesota is already locked in for Dems so Walz is a wash.
I’m generally more risk averse, but when decided to take risks, I commit completely; has played out pretty well for me.
That's the only way to go for me. Why make a move unless it's a big opportunity? That's probably the best time it's worth going for.
The reporting is out there on the VP process. Shapiro wanted to a serious voice in the room and wanted to have a say in things. Walz walked in and said to Harris: What can I do for you?
Great podcast, I disagree with some of Nate's thoughts but overall good insights and a lot to learn here.
I disagree with what some of what Nate said "I believe people should take more risk"
I personally believe that people should take more **smart** risk, but not more risk. We already live in an era where people chase unaffordable material possessions, prohibitively expensive education, lifestyle choices out of reach and more.
I believe very few people understand the true meaning of risk and the analysis needed before taking any action.
For some (very few) people calculating risks comes naturally and it's just something that is done before taking any decision, but most of the people don't even know what risk really means and it's clear by their lifestyles.
Nate didn't mention anything about the role of independents in the upcoming election. They may represent up to a third of the electorate. Won't they be the deciding factor in November?
They will
Kind of. Its important to note though that the vast majority of registered "independents" are not non partisan. Most of them always vote for their preferred party.
I always look to the last midterms. Something happened there that was unexpected. The GOP did not retake the House in a big wave which is lately typical when the opposing party is in the Whitehouse. Knowing pundits say it was due to the independent vote. Will it show up again in November? That is the big question.
Even though Shapiro isn’t the VP candidate, why can’t he still deliver Pennsylvania? They’re still his people.
He might feel he has a better chance in 2028 if Trump wins in 24
Exactly! Shapiro is not as popular in PA as they think
Bingo
I really enjoy both the speakers here but was actually disappointed by this interview.
Prof G has a great knack for distilling topics and human psychology. Nate Silver's superpower is following the data and being extremely objective. Despite them having opposing skill sets, they both seemed to miss the mark on the election.
Sure the numbers say that Shapiro is the right pick, but success in Pennsylvania doesn't necessarily translate to success elsewhere, especially when a significant number of progressive democrats are hostile to him. And maybe Scott liked Shapiro and enjoyed that he was an economic centrist but this ignores the fact that Trump's entire gameplay is to find attack lines and pursue the attacks relentlessly. He's struggling because there is virtually nothing to attack with Walz. What? 6 years ago he misspoke? Big deal.
Nate Silver still giving campaign predictions in 2024 is like asking Sam Bankman-Fried for advice on how to run your crypto fund.
BTW there is plenty of reporting on Shapiro not getting picked. Nate Silver has a proven track record of being bad at these things. Why are people still giving him the time of day?
My advice to everyone is this : if you want to grow big this year especially in your finances. Be willing to make investments. Saving is great but investing puts you on a pedestal where you wouldnt have to worry about savings as you do now. Thanks to larysa Caba, my portolio is doing really great and im proud of the decisions i made last year.
I feel one Of the greatest challenges that we first timers face in the ma rket is that we end up losing all we have,making it difficult to find ourselves back to our feet. My biggest advice is to always seek the services of a professional just like I did when I ventured into it for the first time. Big thanks to Larysa Caba. I now make huge profits by weekly through her services while still learning to stand on my own.
I have never seen a trader as open and transparent as Larysa Caba with her clients. The way she decides to make a profit for her clients. she allows you to express your fears and she still rests your fears and that is my respect. I don't normally comment on videos, but this word should be included. she is really cool.
I just looked up her name online. she is licensed with credible certificates and has an amazing track record. Thank you for the message.
I'm new to this and have heard that now is an excellent time to buy. However, I currently have cash sitting in my bank account that I would really like to put to good use because inflation is at an all-time high. Who is this coach that you mention, and do you mind if I look them up?
I feel this is quite an easy one. You already have her name which makes it easy for you. Just look up her name online. I’m sure you will come across her. That’s how I found her too.
Calculated Risks
Hate to loose
= success
Love to tight
Competition, capitalism, not socialism, Communism and bigger gov 't. - experience matters, noting replaces experience.
Given his recent outlook on the election and the fact that he's incentivized by Peter Thiel's funding of Polymarket, I take this whole conversation with a huge grain of salt
Nate spoke of his media business being better at smaller scale and the reasons he gave was keeping more of the profits himself and not having to pay employees who make dubious contributions.
That’s fine for him, but the end product suffers. I gave up on reading his Substack after loving his work on 538. He desperately needs an editor. He makes a lot of typos and often words things confusingly. The same can be said of most Substack Superstars. When they break out of traditional media, they have no editors above them, and no on the ground reporters below them. They end writing a lot of sloppy blog posts about “what happened on Twitter today.”
Given that half the democrats call the Israel conflict a genocide and Shapiro has been heavily pro-Israel, it was prudent for the Kmala campaign to not pick him?
I listen to Nate silver talking about the current political situation and it's clear he has no insight whatsoever beyond what was already in the news 2 weeks ago. And to think that anyone should take his advice on something on a political move is ridiculous
I was a big 538 fan back in 2016. IT was fresh and new but it eventually got boring and largely irrelevant. I agree, he does not know politics at all. Just yesterdays news.
If you have read it, does this book add anything to Ergodicity from Luca Dellenna or is ist just the same?
I have never come across a guest who sounds as robotic as Nate. I almost fell asleep at the start of this conversation.
It’s like auditing a class I fall asleep 5 mins in?
30:59 - Shapiro is looking at potus. If KH wins… he needs to wait until ‘32 unless he’s willing to risk a primary against the first sitting madam President. He KH looses, Shapiro could stand a chance in ‘28 primaries but with a huge more progressive leaning field of choices.
That's quite a rationalization. I would be surprised if Shapiro decided to back out.
I know nothing about trading/ Investing and I'm keen on getting started . What are some strategies to get started with ?
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
I'm guided by a widely known crypto consultant
This is correct, Anita Fred strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started.
Isn't that the same Anita Fred that my neighbours are talking about, she has to be a perfect expert for people to talk about her so well
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
This episode was white noise🫤
Lots of words
For tax purposes.. so romantic!
Scott pretends not to know why radical Muslim supporters didn’t want to choose Shapiro lol
So he means other hims?
Not picking Shapiro is one knock against Harris as a competent politician. It will be interesting to see where things are after the first debate. The Democrat establishment may not be capable of getting the ball across the line.
She clearly made the right pick. Nate really missed on this one.
@@DeanOfCoaching You cannot determine that until after the election.
Very low energy on all sides this episode. Pick it up boys.
Shapiro sucks, walz is pretty decent
So much male toxicity, so little awareness of gender differences.
No mention of KH having done ZERO press conferences? Just campaigning by showing up to concerts? Yeah man she’s doing a great job 🙄 what about her plan to tax unrealized gains?
Shapiro Is pretty unpopular in PA...
Terrible interview. Just marketing for Nate (yes - look at the background). Nothing he says is new.
Least, interesting interview…… Come on man!
How do most of you guys still make profit, even with the downturn of the economy and ever increasing life standards
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
This is correct, Nancy's strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it’s a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started..
Nancy is considered a key Crypto Strategist with one of the best copy Trading Portfolios and also very active in the cryptocurrency space.
Please educate me. I've come across this name before. Now I am interested. How can I reach her?
Wow. I'm so excited seeing Nancy been mentioned here also. Didn’t know she has been good to other people too, this is wonderful.
He needs to change his forecast again, the betting market now favors Trump, again
Not good
Very interestingly inspiring! I will ALSO look forward to more videos! 🧑🎄🪜