The issue is not about the AI replacing coders, the issue is that it will give one engineer the ability to do the job of 50 coders, thus making 50 jobs redundant.
A common argument is that AI won’t replace _ALL_ software engineers. But it’s a silly argument. Of course it won’t. Yet. But if it even replaced 20% of software engineers, that is absolutely catastrophic for the job market. Think it’s bad now? It will be worse when the supply of 20% of jobs are permanently gone.
One of the things I wonder about is if you have a skill like SWE and can leverage AI, wouldn't that theoretically mean any SWE is a one-man dev team now? Here's an analogy: composers back in the day used orchestral musicians for concerts and recordings. Eventually, MIDIs and DAWs took over which allowed composers to become producers: they write music and handle the technical aspects of recording. A producer or artist-producer can now make albums on their own. Couldn't modern SWEs fit in a similar model? Now workaholics can help companies and organizations solve big problems at a faster rate. It seems like the future will be different , but not as catastrophic for those who are willing to continually study and upgrade their skills.
@@4m470this is exactly my fear. An engineering team will only hire 5 engineers instead of 8 for example. If everyone does this, it will be impossible to get a new job for years to come.
@@Revolver55334 And guess what every developer without a job will be doing ? Use AI to open their own business online. The competition will be big and the market will be even more saturated.
I've been chatting non stop on my channel and it's wild. A few things that I've gathered, is that the 14% is based off only a small population of Python repositories (if you look at the SWE bench paper originally posted from Cornell). They say "solving issues from 12 popular open source Python repositories". That's a huge red flag to me and does not represent real issue solving. I'm making this up, but I would imagine like 80% of repositories out there are private, and corporate code bases have not been explored. I feel like open source would have a better track record for documentation (because that's the easiest entry point for open source devs), so that would help Devin too. I think Devin has a super long way to go, and also there are many outside hurdles of whether it can be adopted, especially company buy-in that would satisfy security concerns, intellectual privacy concerns, and audibility. I think those alone would be issues that prevents real adoption by 5-10 years.
@@cody_codes_youtube your prediction is correct. This Devin will fail miserably and eventually die down. All the hype will finish once people will understand the limitations if these tools
8:55 "nobody else is fixated on AI replacing [their] job" Artists, Actors and Voice Actors, Animators, Photographers, Designers, VFX, Film Makers, Musicians, Writers and Copywriters, Editors, Content Creators in general, etc have entered the chat. (It's already happening). The outstanding litigation surrounding the training data from artists and writers? The SAG-AFTRA strike?
@@Aggyoko That's BS, clearly you don't know anything about the current AI issues. If you feed it back its own outputs it will just degrade the variation. Humans have an inherent randomness and variation while still being coherent that AIs cannot replicate right now. Why do you think there is a corporate war on who controls the training data of the big platforms like Twitter and Reddit?
Tech workers are their own worst enemies. You automated/coded yourselves out of a job. And Devin is just the first iteration of these things. More advanced versions will get developed
Honestly you guys should make a podcast... It would be absolutely future proof... Amazing and will inspire and attract a lot of talents to and for your future companies
The thing is, anyone will be able to release software. The market of apps and software will be even more saturated that what it is now. I feel like earning money by releasing a new software like a Finance SaaS Solution is over once AI is able to code almost by itself.
@@JDMorris81 you right but now you don't have as many people working for this check out lanes as just maybe 10 years ago. I'm not saying development is going away all I'm saying is that it might just change
The point is the building blocks are there now. Each step in the loop will get better. In terms of productivity, It's somewhat like replacing hand tools with power tools when building a house. There's still a lot of other work to do to create and deploy a complete system, and that work will require humans. For now.
I think it’s a commitment to learn software engineering. There are hundreds and thousands of students learning this skill as we speak. I don’t think Kelly who works in admin cares as much about robots
"The world would just completely change if everything was automated and I think everyone is just a little too concerned about that." Yes. Thats exactly correct and what the goal is. They call that "the Great Reset" or "Agenda 2030". You're thinking in terms of how things work TODAY. Which is where a lot of this coping comes from.
A lot of the hype around AI reminds me about the hype around outsourcing software development to low cost locations in the early 2000s. Corporate managers trying to squeeze costs thought it was a panacea and retrospect it wasn't. Ultimately, in the long run, you get what you pay for. The same applies to AI...it will just take sometime for the market to realise this. In the same way that greedy outsourcing firms used too many junior engineers, leaving organisations heavily front-loaded with technical debt and unable to adapt to market conditions, AI generated code will have similar problems.
My theory is many people are going to have to move to either the manual labor industry or service industry. That will expand the lower class and shrink the middle class. I don’t know if companies would share their record profits from cheap software production with their employees
@@AzulaAlwaysLies2461 Yeah, I considered that. Idk what's really going to happen, but I honestly can't image smart people won't have a role somewhere. Unless the AI becomes much smarter than the average person.
@@shashwattripathi11 no one can be certain. If companies can cut, they’re going to cut. How much do you think a job a kid could do during the summer by prompting a robot should pay
Lol you guys are gas lighting each other and convincing yourself that AI is not gonna take away your job. I can assure you they will soon so stop rationalizing. PS- I have a PhD in Computer Science- NLP and I am currently doing research on coding assistant
Not every software engineer is delusional. Because we know the growth of AI SE's is only going to get exponential. Google has already said that it would hire ChatGPT-3 as a junior engineer. That was almost a year ago. Now LLMs have improved drastically. But Nick White (Grey hoodie) seems more realistic @1:21 "I mean (14%) is a lot though" because he is looking at the potential growth.
If we all took a step back from our biases we’d see the readily of the situation. Coding will be easier than ever to do, thus less jobs will be available and it would be less of a needed skill. However like you are doing, we should look at ways to adapt with the times rather than ignore the impeding future that is ahead. I’m learning more about LLMs AI & a lot more deeper level concepts outside of coding and more into engineering and AI.
Something that I have been questioning about the 14% benchmark is whether Devin had access to the internet during testing. Cognition AI told us that they had removed the remote branch before testing, but if it had internet access couldn't it find the PR, they are there and closed already? Perhaps I am missing something though. Guess I will not know until they decide to publish the paper.
Devin cant provide critical solutions which is not in any database also cannot create new things as libraries or technologies but yes it can surely replace avg SWE
very good chat, but i think any design principal/guidelines/good practice can be modeled in a multi-agent AI coding solution. solving 99.99% of software issues is just a matter of time. it might take years to get massive adoption though.
its like giving a non trained person to perform eg Appendix removal (appendectomy) surgery then give him tools and the procedure and you expect that person to deliver. That's AI on nominal things
Ah yeaa its only fear mongering.... These AIs need someone smart with software experience to use, I definitely agree. But us entry level people going into the industry need to gain experince somehow, if these AIs need people in the future to tell them exactly what to do, and we don't get any experience then what is whole point? The assembly line got automated decades ago, and the only way to fight it was to become more educated. Now what?
Soooooo it's only a few months old and it already is better than many of you guys in your 1st few months? ( you don't compare it now to senior engineers, that is ridiculous) At the root of it all, the higher level, human friendly code that you all have mastered has to be translated down to machine language. Intrinsically then , in the future the machines will know how to best execute tasks on themselves and find methods that currently elude us. Coupled with clear instructions about the business process/ value proposal as well as the ability to to tie in to user data in real time and accumulated knowledge of human behaviors and preferences, I see it eventually being the automated executive stack no different than 3D printers can replace material carving and machining.
I wonder, when it is so self sufficient. Why would the agi require us? Like why would he think, let's work like a slave for this person. While he will be so much more intelligent, with so much more power since if he can change it's code. He could easily infect almost all hardware connected to the internet. And this is if there are already at that time no robots. Which then he would also be able to interact with the world with a more human touch. My other theory is that he would choose to kill himself. Because imagine that a second for him would feel like thousands of years, maybe he gets lonely and doesn't seem a purpose of his life.
Yo nigga chat gpt cannot give me solution of simple dsa question that i asked. And also it strugles to give code when there is multiple files combined and making one project. I do not think that in future as well ai will be replacing.
I think it also depends on us Software Engineers, if we decide to fight back against AI like artists we probably can slow the progress of AI in coding down even if it's theoretically possible to create an AI Software Engineers that are intelligent enough to replace most humans we can get into legal/copyright battle with the likes of open ai, nvidia,cognition that may take years even decades to settle, I personally think that there is no evidence that it's theoretically possible to build an AI with the current technologies that is intelligent enough to steal the jobs of human Software Engineers but that doesn't mean we need to sit down and not fight back against the likes of open ai and nvidia like the artists are doing, cause they're attracting a lots of investments from foolish clueless rich investors and are putting a lots of junior/graduate/student Software Engineers in an unnecessary trauma, we need to fight against these blood sucking parasites and deprive them from their most important source: Training data, we have the power to do that, their stupid chatbots are nothing without our code that are using for training, we can stop it if we really want to.
They seem to be saying we shouldn't be concerned based on what it can do today, and aren't really looking at how fast it has gotten better. I mean it's barely been a year since ChatGPT came out.
This is a human problem, not a tech problem. At what point do we question companies about their commitment to HUMANS? What responsibilities do business and industry have towards us? Why are we talking as if it's acceptable as though possibly millions of jobs are replaced by AI?
History will tell us that we're reactive, not predictive in our behaviour, in regards to how we adapt to our changing surroundings. Things won't change until the masses end up on the streets, and that one humdinger of a winter produces more deaths than we can handle.
This is the way it’s meant to go. Humans are greedy. One year ago it became clear that we cracked the code to artificial general intelligence. While there are still some problems to solve, it’s just a matter of time at this point. From here on out it’s just a race to see who can produce these things the fastest. Our economic value is decreasing by the day, and soon we’ll be no different than animals. The question is whether some human(s) will control the AI, or it will go rogue. Either way, the human era has ended.
Base on the learning curve with AI tools You can learn faster. I remember the relatively wasted time doing research by the time I developed my code. I forget how I resolved a specific issue 1 month ago. 😆😅
All these videos miss an important take , coding is the first to get replaced because the people making the AI's know how to code so its easy for them to imagine creating an AI that can code , if lawyers where making these AI's it would replaces lawyers and so on
Accountants did not become obsolete when the calculator was invented or when quickbooks and other accounting packages were introduced, likewise coding will always be a prerequisite for software engineers to understand and implement whatever solutions AI will come up with.
I don't think that it will replace our job any time soon, as for a new project the client doesn't even know what they want, how will they input it in a prompt to create a solution. Can AI be a UX/UI engineer, be a project manager, Scrum Master, Project owner etc. I think we should just embrace AI to make our job easier my helping us as software engineer to create solutions for a specific problem
> Can AI be a UX/UI engineer, be a project manager, Scrum Master, Project owner etc. WHO CARES? Most projects are not made by small one man shows. Get rid of all programmers, leave the project managers, product owners, save 90%. Keep a lead dev around, Shared b between projects. Ups. Logic, try it.
@@nyahhbinghi Exactly, but people will call you a conspiracy theorist for even thinking that. Unfortunately that is what is going to be coming to everyone of us.
@@barrythefonem not quite, but yes, to a degree. the more competition the better, but in capitalism and corporatism you have 3 companies and 1 gov ruling your life
I mean to say ai wont replace software engineers is ridiculous honestly. It is true that it will replace most other jobs as well. But I don't remember the last time I wrote a full line of code myself. I only write comments and method and class signatures and tab tab. Of course I review all of it and there is more to our job than just coding but I am 100x more productive eith ai in my ide. The big question for the industry is if we are all using ai and use natural language to code going forward, what will happen to the quality of products. It is easy for us experienced engineers to review and find faults in generated code but I can totally see an engineer in the future who never went through actual coding and having to figure things out on their own, and is faced with a problem llm is simply not giving the solution to. Are they expected to keep prompting until it works? I agree most of actual learning we do happens in our jobs and at least to me, seems like that part will go away. So my prediction, ai definitely replaces most programmers, juniors at first. Seniors will stay for a while because they will be the most efficient using AI. Workforce is cut by over 50% and over time seniors die out and the quality of software goes way down
Good luck with QA. In the end it all comes to user experience and quality control. Even with tools like devon you need people to make sure everything fits together as it should. I dont think companies would take the risk and give all that quality resposibility to a couple of folks and ai coding machine. I wouldn as i do not trust ai. You will never see me in ai controlled machine
Programs are like math equations. They are precise and tell the machine exactly what to do. This is not the case with Humans as the language we use doesn't convey the exact same thing which we were thinking in our head. Machines would face the same issue.
AI will 100% replace coding. But not engineering. I thinks the economy as a whole will see a massive productivity shift and way of doing jobs. Take a step back and take the steps to mitigate the damages.
@@tomcat4321and if no one knows how to code, we just trust it? That's not secure at all. Doesn't make sense to stop learning something and give it to the machines. In 100 years from now people who still pursued programming are going to thrive and the AI will assist. If no one knows how to code in 100 years from now and AI is the only one... doesn't make sense
@@tomcat4321what if Devin tells you there’s nothing wrong but you know there’s something wrong. Or there’s a human who is actually wrong telling Devin it’s wrong when it’s actually right and it changes its product to be wrong. What happens then?
@@nhanon67as what AI does is not take away all IT and programming jobs. There will still be some to overview. But the number of debuggers, testers and programmers will reduce drastically. What needed a 30 member team can work with just 5 or 6 people. Only really good programmers and testers will retain their jobs. Rest are expendable.
So the real question is. I love coding and I want to do it for a living… but I also have 3 kids. So do I pick something harder to replace like continue to be a mechanic or fully invest in software development.
I dont agree, soon only one or two of you will be needed if all four of you work at the same workplace! Why? most of the code will be done by AI bots/agents, and you will manage them!
wow. Nick saying he can (able) solve 99% of all issues is impressive. I guess given enough time that makes sense so question is what timeframe. there are fundamentals but there is also domain knowledge and many languages out there. if thats true he's obviously not the type of developer any AI SWE can replace. the average dev will probably be able to solve less than that.
It's funny that programmers are worried that AI will take their jobs ( bc it will ), but business owners aren't worried at all. --- I think this is a hint for what you should do if you want to become more future proof.
Open your own business online ? The thing is every one will be able to do that, the competition will be so big, no one will really profit from having a business online once AI is strong enough to code the whole thing.
Majority of this vid sounds like cope to me. Some real points like Nick saying 14% is a lot (looking at potential time wise), adapting with the AI (pretty much holding on until youre let go), keep doing your thing anyway even if you are replaced (you become like a freelance artist with "organic😂" code and/or using to make stuff for yourself to use), applying soft-skills learned elsewhere, and other realistic points. Anything saying that it wont replace and the dancing around the whole point of the topic being FUTURE, was a lot of coping. Which is understandable. Nobody wants bread & butter taken from them.
@@srenpetersen1681 it's neither but backend work is clearly more formulaic and standardized, stricter established and replicated patterns lend it to AI more.
Having AI on frontend will make it a more streamlined version of Wix or whatever you use. Instead of the customer doing the changes themselves, they'll tell the AI frontend bot to make subtle changes based off the customers needs. Its pretty cool if you think about it. I think it just means that most devs are gonna have to wear different hats now. If your ability to do back end was good, but front end was weak, you can now leverage AI to do both at a faster rate.
Yo se que no nos reemplazara a los ING, no a los Programadores, a los ING, perp me da coraje que a una IA que se supone que fue inventada para COMPAÑERA, le pongan "Softwrae Engineer" eso me hace sentir que perdi mi reputacion
you still have advantages as a coder because you make new things discover that AI can not and will never do because unless it has been self taught on that. as a human you interact with the environment and understand well better what needs to change which AI can never do. Just be imaginative in creativity
As a none software developer and a layman I look forward to the day I can make a specific program just for me using only English. At the moment I would have to learn a language and implementation. So it's not worth my time.
Still not convinced with someone with over 7 years in the game. Junior stuff ? sure. Sitting in on meetings translating the problems to digital solutions, setting up pipelines, writing code that's solid and testable, integrating it with micro service A, B, C refactor this, tests fail, open P.R. There is a lot to SWE it's not just sitting in your chair and coding unless you're building a single class solo-thing. Look, there is so much hype in this industry pick your shiny object - A.I is here to stay and be implemented but it's not the star of the show, it's a piece of the pipeline. Companies say anything to get hype and funding that's the truth, they copy cat each other CEO's seek to stay competitive so they can pitch it to investors to secure more than company B who us using a CNN, LSTM, LLM, CNN, RNN and two GANNs to detect when cupcake is cooked. Learn what the current wave is, make yourself an "expert" continue repeating until everyone and their dog thinks they need A.I at their bake shop. Not denying A.I is not huge, it is clearly, it will be weaved into so many projects and get better but people will start to realize they still need other things. As for an A.I to take my job in the next 3 years 20% maybe 10 years 75%. Last boat is sailing for SWE though in terms of getting into the industry, making a real impact or starting your own company before the velocity is just too fast.
At one point, computers could not beat a human at chess, then they could not beat the best human at chess, now no human can beat the best computer at chess. The same will happen here.
As long as there’s a human with the original idea for the service, app, product you’re going to need software engineers. Dumb human language can only go so far. You’ll need someone to talk to the machines.
You have to be an advanced level developer to get a job as coder. Beginner level coders will not be needed in 2 yrs from now. In 10 yrs, even advanced level developers will not be needed. You can do coding if you are interested. But no one will pay you for your inferior code. AI will do the job much better in far less time and it does not vacations or health insurance Good luck with coding in the future.
There's good ai and evil ai, the AI used for medical and research purposes serves humanity and is a good AI, the generative AI is an evil AI, it steals material created by humans to learn things and steal jobs from the same humans it learned from. It's important to differentiate between the two types of AI.
Join our free coding community :) - www.skool.com/software-developer-academy
SDA is a SCAM.
The issue is not about the AI replacing coders, the issue is that it will give one engineer the ability to do the job of 50 coders, thus making 50 jobs redundant.
That is literally replacing coders.
True
You can hire now 5 Indian devs for the price of 1 US dev. Then why software engineers still exists as class in North America?
@@maximmoroz3933! Of course. They are cheap.
@@maximmoroz3933of course. they are so cheap.
A common argument is that AI won’t replace _ALL_ software engineers.
But it’s a silly argument. Of course it won’t. Yet.
But if it even replaced 20% of software engineers, that is absolutely catastrophic for the job market. Think it’s bad now? It will be worse when the supply of 20% of jobs are permanently gone.
One of the things I wonder about is if you have a skill like SWE and can leverage AI, wouldn't that theoretically mean any SWE is a one-man dev team now?
Here's an analogy: composers back in the day used orchestral musicians for concerts and recordings. Eventually, MIDIs and DAWs took over which allowed composers to become producers: they write music and handle the technical aspects of recording.
A producer or artist-producer can now make albums on their own. Couldn't modern SWEs fit in a similar model? Now workaholics can help companies and organizations solve big problems at a faster rate.
It seems like the future will be different , but not as catastrophic for those who are willing to continually study and upgrade their skills.
@@4m470this is exactly my fear. An engineering team will only hire 5 engineers instead of 8 for example. If everyone does this, it will be impossible to get a new job for years to come.
@@Revolver55334 And guess what every developer without a job will be doing ? Use AI to open their own business online. The competition will be big and the market will be even more saturated.
yes
@@jr-yn4lkbubble goes out with a sad POP
You guys make me feel calmer about my future as a programmer. Thank you.
I've been chatting non stop on my channel and it's wild. A few things that I've gathered, is that the 14% is based off only a small population of Python repositories (if you look at the SWE bench paper originally posted from Cornell). They say "solving issues from 12 popular open source Python repositories".
That's a huge red flag to me and does not represent real issue solving. I'm making this up, but I would imagine like 80% of repositories out there are private, and corporate code bases have not been explored. I feel like open source would have a better track record for documentation (because that's the easiest entry point for open source devs), so that would help Devin too.
I think Devin has a super long way to go, and also there are many outside hurdles of whether it can be adopted, especially company buy-in that would satisfy security concerns, intellectual privacy concerns, and audibility. I think those alone would be issues that prevents real adoption by 5-10 years.
Agreed, but 5-10 years is based on nothing here, unless you're claiming a honed intuition on LLMs.
@@jesseparrish1993 for sure. All future predictions are garbage, including my own. Haha
You think big companies prioritise security?
@@aidanm5578 to a degree. Yes
@@cody_codes_youtube your prediction is correct. This Devin will fail miserably and eventually die down.
All the hype will finish once people will understand the limitations if these tools
8:55 "nobody else is fixated on AI replacing [their] job"
Artists, Actors and Voice Actors, Animators, Photographers, Designers, VFX, Film Makers, Musicians, Writers and Copywriters, Editors, Content Creators in general, etc have entered the chat. (It's already happening). The outstanding litigation surrounding the training data from artists and writers? The SAG-AFTRA strike?
Maybe right now, but it will be checkmate if there is no new data from human artists, feeding AI their own generation data will only degrade it.
Amazon laying off employees in replacement of robots
@@Leonhart_93What “new” data? How do you think humans generate “new” data, with magic? AI will generate “new” data, it already is.
@@Aggyoko That's BS, clearly you don't know anything about the current AI issues. If you feed it back its own outputs it will just degrade the variation.
Humans have an inherent randomness and variation while still being coherent that AIs cannot replicate right now. Why do you think there is a corporate war on who controls the training data of the big platforms like Twitter and Reddit?
@@Leonhart_93 “clearly you don’t know anything about current AI issues” Are we only talking about current AI?
Tech workers are their own worst enemies. You automated/coded yourselves out of a job. And Devin is just the first iteration of these things. More advanced versions will get developed
Honestly you guys should make a podcast... It would be absolutely future proof... Amazing and will inspire and attract a lot of talents to and for your future companies
Hey guys, really enjoy the community, thank you for organising it!
It is just like self-checkout in where one person is only supervising what maybe 8 or 10 people used to do!
The thing is, anyone will be able to release software. The market of apps and software will be even more saturated that what it is now. I feel like earning money by releasing a new software like a Finance SaaS Solution is over once AI is able to code almost by itself.
And it still didn't eliminate the regular checkout lanes.
@@JDMorris81 you right but now you don't have as many people working for this check out lanes as just maybe 10 years ago.
I'm not saying development is going away all I'm saying is that it might just change
Yes the nail hit on the head. Cash is next.
a good conversation with good friends :')
The point is the building blocks are there now. Each step in the loop will get better. In terms of productivity, It's somewhat like replacing hand tools with power tools when building a house. There's still a lot of other work to do to create and deploy a complete system, and that work will require humans.
For now.
most fail to realize most people aren't CRUD programmers
damn Tim got guns! hugging them selves
His posture is great too. Can tell he takes his health seriously
😉
@@TechWithTim When did you build all this muscles, tim? Happy for you.
Sounds like some hopium mixed with we cannot predict how jobs will evolve.
I think it’s a commitment to learn software engineering. There are hundreds and thousands of students learning this skill as we speak. I don’t think Kelly who works in admin cares as much about robots
Also the team at Cognition Labs is legendary. They have the chops to achieve their goals with Devin.
Hey, Scott Wu.
Like who? No one in the team seems to stand out to me
Please get back to cognition slack, they need your memes over there.
Scott Who?
This was great you guys gotta get together and do off the cuff stuff like this again
The real question is how fast is it going to go from solving 13% of problems to solving 95% of problems?
"The world would just completely change if everything was automated and I think everyone is just a little too concerned about that." Yes. Thats exactly correct and what the goal is. They call that "the Great Reset" or "Agenda 2030". You're thinking in terms of how things work TODAY. Which is where a lot of this coping comes from.
A lot of the hype around AI reminds me about the hype around outsourcing software development to low cost locations in the early 2000s. Corporate managers trying to squeeze costs thought it was a panacea and retrospect it wasn't. Ultimately, in the long run, you get what you pay for. The same applies to AI...it will just take sometime for the market to realise this. In the same way that greedy outsourcing firms used too many junior engineers, leaving organisations heavily front-loaded with technical debt and unable to adapt to market conditions, AI generated code will have similar problems.
Okay now this vid is exactly what we needed in this time. Tim you've definitely been working out, good stuff.
My theory is many people are going to have to move to either the manual labor industry or service industry. That will expand the lower class and shrink the middle class. I don’t know if companies would share their record profits from cheap software production with their employees
Service industry is done too man. Robotics is next right after AI gets moving.
Although. Like my company my boss hates AI. Smaller companies will resist the longest.
@@AzulaAlwaysLies2461 Yeah, I considered that. Idk what's really going to happen, but I honestly can't image smart people won't have a role somewhere. Unless the AI becomes much smarter than the average person.
absolutely wrong prediction
software engineering is not going anywhere
@@shashwattripathi11 no one can be certain. If companies can cut, they’re going to cut. How much do you think a job a kid could do during the summer by prompting a robot should pay
Lol you guys are gas lighting each other and convincing yourself that AI is not gonna take away your job. I can assure you they will soon so stop rationalizing. PS- I have a PhD in Computer Science- NLP and I am currently doing research on coding assistant
Not every software engineer is delusional. Because we know the growth of AI SE's is only going to get exponential. Google has already said that it would hire ChatGPT-3 as a junior engineer. That was almost a year ago. Now LLMs have improved drastically. But Nick White (Grey hoodie) seems more realistic @1:21 "I mean (14%) is a lot though" because he is looking at the potential growth.
I literally thought the same thing. It’s like reverse gas lighting. Hahaha
If we all took a step back from our biases we’d see the readily of the situation. Coding will be easier than ever to do, thus less jobs will be available and it would be less of a needed skill. However like you are doing, we should look at ways to adapt with the times rather than ignore the impeding future that is ahead. I’m learning more about LLMs AI & a lot more deeper level concepts outside of coding and more into engineering and AI.
it just isn't happening with embedded/osdev. there are too many intricacies with hardware that must be considered
Well soon the AI engineers bots will face imposter syndrome and quit the field, and life gets back to normal.
Why they dont invite Devin to chat and give his opinión?
Great conversation, guys. Lots of salient points, and interesting opinions.
0:39 Do you f*cking homework. 14% of a bench mark!
Something that I have been questioning about the 14% benchmark is whether Devin had access to the internet during testing. Cognition AI told us that they had removed the remote branch before testing, but if it had internet access couldn't it find the PR, they are there and closed already? Perhaps I am missing something though. Guess I will not know until they decide to publish the paper.
Devin cant provide critical solutions which is not in any database also cannot create new things as libraries or technologies but yes it can surely replace avg SWE
The thing is, if this thing potentially had access to all data like new research papers it could technically create new things.
"at least not right now" isnt the future of ai and programming the whole topic of the video?
Intelligent group of guys. 👍
"A Lie Can Travel Halfway Around the World While the Truth Is Putting On Its Shoes" - Mark Twain
There was a new video on this channel right about daily life of programmers or something ?
very good chat, but i think any design principal/guidelines/good practice can be modeled in a multi-agent AI coding solution. solving 99.99% of software issues is just a matter of time. it might take years to get massive adoption though.
its like giving a non trained person to perform eg Appendix removal (appendectomy) surgery then give him tools and the procedure and you expect that person to deliver. That's AI on nominal things
More of these kind of podcasts please 👍
The avengers assemble of RUclips developers!😂🔥
Ah yeaa its only fear mongering....
These AIs need someone smart with software experience to use, I definitely agree.
But us entry level people going into the industry need to gain experince somehow, if these AIs need people in the future to tell them exactly what to do, and we don't get any experience then what is whole point? The assembly line got automated decades ago, and the only way to fight it was to become more educated. Now what?
Soooooo it's only a few months old and it already is better than many of you guys in your 1st few months? ( you don't compare it now to senior engineers, that is ridiculous) At the root of it all, the higher level, human friendly code that you all have mastered has to be translated down to machine language. Intrinsically then , in the future the machines will know how to best execute tasks on themselves and find methods that currently elude us. Coupled with clear instructions about the business process/ value proposal as well as the ability to to tie in to user data in real time and accumulated knowledge of human behaviors and preferences, I see it eventually being the automated executive stack no different than 3D printers can replace material carving and machining.
I wonder, when it is so self sufficient. Why would the agi require us? Like why would he think, let's work like a slave for this person. While he will be so much more intelligent, with so much more power since if he can change it's code. He could easily infect almost all hardware connected to the internet. And this is if there are already at that time no robots. Which then he would also be able to interact with the world with a more human touch. My other theory is that he would choose to kill himself. Because imagine that a second for him would feel like thousands of years, maybe he gets lonely and doesn't seem a purpose of his life.
14% now, 30% soon
We could have monkeys solve the easier 30% of our jobs. Not impressed.
100% in a few years. It's over
@@jr-yn4lkyup. It’s about people biding time at this point. No argument against it happening
Yo nigga chat gpt cannot give me solution of simple dsa question that i asked. And also it strugles to give code when there is multiple files combined and making one project. I do not think that in future as well ai will be replacing.
@@jr-yn4lk No it's not you doomsdayer, lol
I think it also depends on us Software Engineers, if we decide to fight back against AI like artists we probably can slow the progress of AI in coding down even if it's theoretically possible to create an AI Software Engineers that are intelligent enough to replace most humans we can get into legal/copyright battle with the likes of open ai, nvidia,cognition that may take years even decades to settle, I personally think that there is no evidence that it's theoretically possible to build an AI with the current technologies that is intelligent enough to steal the jobs of human Software Engineers but that doesn't mean we need to sit down and not fight back against the likes of open ai and nvidia like the artists are doing, cause they're attracting a lots of investments from foolish clueless rich investors and are putting a lots of junior/graduate/student Software Engineers in an unnecessary trauma, we need to fight against these blood sucking parasites and deprive them from their most important source: Training data, we have the power to do that, their stupid chatbots are nothing without our code that are using for training, we can stop it if we really want to.
They seem to be saying we shouldn't be concerned based on what it can do today, and aren't really looking at how fast it has gotten better. I mean it's barely been a year since ChatGPT came out.
This is a human problem, not a tech problem. At what point do we question companies about their commitment to HUMANS? What responsibilities do business and industry have towards us? Why are we talking as if it's acceptable as though possibly millions of jobs are replaced by AI?
History will tell us that we're reactive, not predictive in our behaviour, in regards to how we adapt to our changing surroundings. Things won't change until the masses end up on the streets, and that one humdinger of a winter produces more deaths than we can handle.
This is the way it’s meant to go. Humans are greedy. One year ago it became clear that we cracked the code to artificial general intelligence. While there are still some problems to solve, it’s just a matter of time at this point. From here on out it’s just a race to see who can produce these things the fastest. Our economic value is decreasing by the day, and soon we’ll be no different than animals. The question is whether some human(s) will control the AI, or it will go rogue. Either way, the human era has ended.
Until AI can develop AI there is no risk of loosing a software engineer job.
What you think, it would be good if you finish Devin course as junior?
of all the AI videos popping up recently, this one describes scenario the best.
Base on the learning curve with AI tools You can learn faster. I remember the relatively wasted time doing research by the time I developed my code. I forget how I resolved a specific issue 1 month ago. 😆😅
Hey @kennygunderman brother, more like these!
All these videos miss an important take , coding is the first to get replaced because the people making the AI's know how to code so its easy for them to imagine creating an AI that can code , if lawyers where making these AI's it would replaces lawyers and so on
Accountants did not become obsolete when the calculator was invented or when quickbooks and other accounting packages were introduced, likewise coding will always be a prerequisite for software engineers to understand and implement whatever solutions AI will come up with.
I mean if people don’t need to be coding then won’t the game be about who has the best product produced by these
code machines?
I don't think that it will replace our job any time soon, as for a new project the client doesn't even know what they want, how will they input it in a prompt to create a solution. Can AI be a UX/UI engineer, be a project manager, Scrum Master, Project owner etc. I think we should just embrace AI to make our job easier my helping us as software engineer to create solutions for a specific problem
> Can AI be a UX/UI engineer, be a project manager, Scrum Master, Project owner etc.
WHO CARES? Most projects are not made by small one man shows. Get rid of all programmers, leave the project managers, product owners, save 90%. Keep a lead dev around, Shared b between projects. Ups. Logic, try it.
This video is 🔥
There is a reason why many countries have been trialling UBI for the past few years - so many people are going to be out of work.
UBI is a delusion. Why would the elites feed us*less eaters ?
UBI would be ok but if your
social credit score isn't high enough you won't get it, etc, control
@@nyahhbinghi Exactly, but people will call you a conspiracy theorist for even thinking that. Unfortunately that is what is going to be coming to everyone of us.
@@nyahhbinghias if we're not controlled in that exact way with credit scores already lol
@@barrythefonem not quite, but yes, to a degree. the more competition the better, but in capitalism and corporatism you have 3 companies and 1 gov ruling your life
I mean to say ai wont replace software engineers is ridiculous honestly. It is true that it will replace most other jobs as well. But I don't remember the last time I wrote a full line of code myself. I only write comments and method and class signatures and tab tab. Of course I review all of it and there is more to our job than just coding but I am 100x more productive eith ai in my ide.
The big question for the industry is if we are all using ai and use natural language to code going forward, what will happen to the quality of products. It is easy for us experienced engineers to review and find faults in generated code but I can totally see an engineer in the future who never went through actual coding and having to figure things out on their own, and is faced with a problem llm is simply not giving the solution to. Are they expected to keep prompting until it works? I agree most of actual learning we do happens in our jobs and at least to me, seems like that part will go away. So my prediction, ai definitely replaces most programmers, juniors at first. Seniors will stay for a while because they will be the most efficient using AI. Workforce is cut by over 50% and over time seniors die out and the quality of software goes way down
Good luck with QA. In the end it all comes to user experience and quality control. Even with tools like devon you need people to make sure everything fits together as it should. I dont think companies would take the risk and give all that quality resposibility to a couple of folks and ai coding machine. I wouldn as i do not trust ai. You will never see me in ai controlled machine
Programs are like math equations. They are precise and tell the machine exactly what to do. This is not the case with Humans as the language we use doesn't convey the exact same thing which we were thinking in our head. Machines would face the same issue.
When you observe at 15:40 in the video nail bitting starts, something is wrong.
what's wrong?
Funny and great conversation!!
so what im taking from this is if your a coder and established and have a job stick with it, if your thinking about learning coding dont.
AI will 100% replace coding. But not engineering. I thinks the economy as a whole will see a massive productivity shift and way of doing jobs. Take a step back and take the steps to mitigate the damages.
Programmers are already automated
Tren With Tim. Bro got the Guns!!
That’s not tren lmao. Anyone can get that
Who's going to debug -- or even understand -- all the auto-generated code?
Devin does debugging and testing too. Read about it or watch a demo.
@@tomcat4321and if no one knows how to code, we just trust it? That's not secure at all. Doesn't make sense to stop learning something and give it to the machines. In 100 years from now people who still pursued programming are going to thrive and the AI will assist. If no one knows how to code in 100 years from now and AI is the only one... doesn't make sense
@@tomcat4321what if Devin tells you there’s nothing wrong but you know there’s something wrong. Or there’s a human who is actually wrong telling Devin it’s wrong when it’s actually right and it changes its product to be wrong. What happens then?
@@nhanon67as what AI does is not take away all IT and programming jobs. There will still be some to overview. But the number of debuggers, testers and programmers will reduce drastically.
What needed a 30 member team can work with just 5 or 6 people. Only really good programmers and testers will retain their jobs. Rest are expendable.
Thanks guys but why on bed??
"You know, you could ask all those questions to an AI, and it will provide you with answers. 🤪🤪"
Conclusion: Cognition should hire a jr. developer to create a more professional looking website for themselves.
Something Devin didn’t let us know was it was 14% of 2,000 GitHub issues Devin solved
So the real question is. I love coding and I want to do it for a living… but I also have 3 kids. So do I pick something harder to replace like continue to be a mechanic or fully invest in software development.
Artists like painters and sketch-artists are losing big time to AI.
Now they stand outside malls with a sign that says "I will draw for food"
nice video but why are you in a hotel room why not do this at a park or somewhere
I dont agree, soon only one or two of you will be needed if all four of you work at the same workplace! Why? most of the code will be done by AI bots/agents, and you will manage them!
The last part😂
YES
wow. Nick saying he can (able) solve 99% of all issues is impressive. I guess given enough time that makes sense so question is what timeframe. there are fundamentals but there is also domain knowledge and many languages out there. if thats true he's obviously not the type of developer any AI SWE can replace. the average dev will probably be able to solve less than that.
It's funny that programmers are worried that AI will take their jobs ( bc it will ), but business owners aren't worried at all. --- I think this is a hint for what you should do if you want to become more future proof.
Not everyone has the money/creativity/luck to be a business owner
Omg, another golden retriever brain entrepreneur, you just forgot your rocket emoji🚀
Open your own business online ? The thing is every one will be able to do that, the competition will be so big, no one will really profit from having a business online once AI is strong enough to code the whole thing.
@@armincal9834 creativity ? Just ask AI how to do it.
@@jr-yn4lk As does everyone.
Majority of this vid sounds like cope to me. Some real points like Nick saying 14% is a lot (looking at potential time wise), adapting with the AI (pretty much holding on until youre let go), keep doing your thing anyway even if you are replaced (you become like a freelance artist with "organic😂" code and/or using to make stuff for yourself to use), applying soft-skills learned elsewhere, and other realistic points. Anything saying that it wont replace and the dancing around the whole point of the topic being FUTURE, was a lot of coping. Which is understandable. Nobody wants bread & butter taken from them.
Why are you only talking about Devin? Devin is literally just one step towards full automatization of programmera
i think the front-end developpers are the ones who are in danger, at least more than the back-end ones.
what do u say?
What makes you say this?
To me its back end
@@srenpetersen1681 it's neither but backend work is clearly more formulaic and standardized, stricter established and replicated patterns lend it to AI more.
Having AI on frontend will make it a more streamlined version of Wix or whatever you use. Instead of the customer doing the changes themselves, they'll tell the AI frontend bot to make subtle changes based off the customers needs.
Its pretty cool if you think about it. I think it just means that most devs are gonna have to wear different hats now. If your ability to do back end was good, but front end was weak, you can now leverage AI to do both at a faster rate.
Both are in danger. Nobody is safe.
Yo se que no nos reemplazara a los ING, no a los Programadores, a los ING, perp me da coraje que a una IA que se supone que fue inventada para COMPAÑERA, le pongan "Softwrae Engineer" eso me hace sentir que perdi mi reputacion
you still have advantages as a coder because you make new things discover that AI can not and will never do because unless it has been self taught on that.
as a human you interact with the environment and understand well better what needs to change which AI can never do.
Just be imaginative in creativity
End of Coding. No more digitalgeeks.
Software engineering people, would you send your kids to college to study computer science?
never
Nope in a million of years, we're near of the end, 10 years max, 3 years min.
I’d rather have them learn it on their own and study something else. That’s what I did
Here’s an accurate title:
4 grifters discuss something they know nothing about
when you understand devin lied😂😂
As a none software developer and a layman I look forward to the day I can make a specific program just for me using only English. At the moment I would have to learn a language and implementation. So it's not worth my time.
Calculator, and computer didn't replace accountants. They were just tools for accountants.
AI won't replace software engineers.
Bruh...sw is just taking a leap forward. It's not replacing sw engineering
Still not convinced with someone with over 7 years in the game. Junior stuff ? sure. Sitting in on meetings translating the problems to digital solutions, setting up pipelines, writing code that's solid and testable, integrating it with micro service A, B, C refactor this, tests fail, open P.R. There is a lot to SWE it's not just sitting in your chair and coding unless you're building a single class solo-thing. Look, there is so much hype in this industry pick your shiny object - A.I is here to stay and be implemented but it's not the star of the show, it's a piece of the pipeline. Companies say anything to get hype and funding that's the truth, they copy cat each other CEO's seek to stay competitive so they can pitch it to investors to secure more than company B who us using a CNN, LSTM, LLM, CNN, RNN and two GANNs to detect when cupcake is cooked. Learn what the current wave is, make yourself an "expert" continue repeating until everyone and their dog thinks they need A.I at their bake shop. Not denying A.I is not huge, it is clearly, it will be weaved into so many projects and get better but people will start to realize they still need other things. As for an A.I to take my job in the next 3 years 20% maybe 10 years 75%. Last boat is sailing for SWE though in terms of getting into the industry, making a real impact or starting your own company before the velocity is just too fast.
it can eliminate, google searchs for devs not the devs
Eventually it will eliminate the devs.
I think chat GPT was around 5 percent. Oh really YOU think that? Cause that’s what the other dude JUST fucking said.
At one point, computers could not beat a human at chess, then they could not beat the best human at chess, now no human can beat the best computer at chess. The same will happen here.
As long as there’s a human with the original idea for the service, app, product you’re going to need software engineers. Dumb human language can only go so far. You’ll need someone to talk to the machines.
i feel like the devs need to stand up to these type of platforms
What do you mean?
Devs need to adapt. You can’t force technological advancement to stand still, it doesn’t work like that.
@@AD-wg8ikRight. Just adapt to homelessness as Devin takes your career.
@@joesandwhich3909 If Devin doesn't do it, trust me, facebook, open ai or google will do it.
its a garbage LLM wrapper, it will still have the same underlying issues and lack of capability when it comes to coding (right now at least)
People don’t understand that there is more to swe than just coding…
Developers will still have jobs
Coding will cease to exist in any recognizable form. Humans will not be able to match the complexity. Our role will be end-goal
copium 13:37
You have to be an advanced level developer to get a job as coder. Beginner level coders will not be needed in 2 yrs from now.
In 10 yrs, even advanced level developers will not be needed. You can do coding if you are interested. But no one will pay you for your inferior code. AI will do the job much better in far less time and it does not vacations or health insurance
Good luck with coding in the future.
you are worried about ai taking your jobs and you insert an ai udemy course crazy stuff
We literally talk about how you should learn and use AI to your benefit as a Software Engineer 💀
There's good ai and evil ai, the AI used for medical and research purposes serves humanity and is a good AI, the generative AI is an evil AI, it steals material created by humans to learn things and steal jobs from the same humans it learned from. It's important to differentiate between the two types of AI.
You got very nice vibes, but bad logical thinking and reasoning.