🔴 Recession, Gold and the Dollar (w/ Peter Schiff) - Why Gold Is Going Up
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- Опубликовано: 24 апр 2019
- Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, talks with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, about the interaction between the dollar and gold. Schiff predicts that the Federal Reserve will ultimately have to decide between saving the dollar from hyperinflation and bailing out the U.S. government. In either case, gold is positioned to be a safe haven for investors should the worst come to pass. This video is excerpted from a piece published on Real Vision on October 20, 2017.
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Recession, Gold and the Dollar (w/ Peter Schiff) | Gold
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Transcript:
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I think a big part of-- most people in the gold world argument is there's a finite amount of gold. But there's a lot of claims on it. But there's only so much physical gold that exists. Right? But then there's the GLDs, there's the futures contracts that aren't really backed by gold, or you know you can't take delivery, the ETFs.
So a lot of the argument is that when people scramble for gold, there's only so much actual physical that exists that'll push the price up a lot.
Yeah. It's going to go up. And of course, you know GLD, that is physical gold because the GLD, the ETF has to buy the actual gold in order to issue the shares. But yes, in the futures markets, there it's a whole different ballgame. Because there, you have people selling gold who don't have it.
Right.
And people are buying gold that don't actually want it. They never intend to take delivery. So you can have this paper market of basically gambling on the price of gold. But yes, a lot of the demand that might otherwise go into real gold ends up going into futures contracts, which is not buying any actual gold.
But where the problem is going to set in-- and maybe it's not a problem. If you're long gold, it's an opportunity, or a good thing. Right? But at some point. A lot of the owners of these futures contracts are actually going to request delivery.
Yeah.
Because just because they don't do it now doesn't mean they won't in the future. And at some point, the longs are going to want delivery and the shorts are going to get delivered a notice that says, yes. You need to deliver your gold. Now the shorts don't have any gold.
Yeah.
So now they have to go into the market and actually buy it. Well where are they going to get it?
Right.
And that's when you have a huge move up, and maybe even a bankruptcy of the COMEX Or does it have to be bailed out? Or what's going to happen? Or are the people who are requesting their gold going to be told you can't have it? You know, you're going to get paid in cash. Even though you requested physical delivery, it's not going to happen. So this could be an explosion of real buying of gold.
And there are a lot of people that own gold. That, oh, it's all manipulated. And all the paper markets are keeping it down. Maybe so, but it can't go on forever. And for me, if they are manipulating it, that means the price of gold is artificially low. That means it's a great buy. Right, we're going to get paid.
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But don't forget markets can remain irrational longer than most of us can stay solvent
or sane
This is the problem with Peter, he's very bad @ TIMING it.
He's absolutely right about any and everything and I would love to be deep and long in gold but regulations need to change so that all paper gold trades are backed by real gold because until that happens gold will always be grotesquely undervalued
Did u compose that saying or “borrow” it from someone??
@@michaelanon1968 most definitely borrowed. Its quite a famous saying
Air date October 2017?
a lot of the economy has turned into inflating pieces of paper and home prices. leverage and debt have skyrocketed.
Read the fine print on GLD (in terms of physical delivery). Almost no one will get physical delivery if there is a run on the physical metal.
First real vision video I’ve watched in a good few months, solid moving having peter schiff on
is more better like 1/3 of your wealth in physical gold?
That's make more sense than 5%!
At least that... all that paper is going to be worth less than the paper it's printed on.
looks like Peter and Brent traded jackets before the interview
Or they traded pants.
full video?
Still don’t hear any comment from Peter about how gold accounts towards bank reserves in Basel III rules
Pls explain?
Loved it. Great interview!
which gold stocks can give 50 to 100 fold returns? i dont see any
But I think there is still one other difference. There is a growing dollar shortage in the emerging markets. So the dollar just might go up because of a lot of demand from the EM. That will be bad for exports and make imports cheaper. I think at that point the printing presses will go on to make the dollar weaker.
Philippe It will be a long time before emerging markets run out of the US dollar and well after this final play now. The scenario have been the case start of 2018 if it happened then, but it didn’t play that way. There are more on hand dollars in EM countries than the US now. Simply they are awash with them due to investing in them as the EM markets were cracking due to the increasing dollar strength the last year or so . It is the reason the US dollar is strong now.
So in a sense you are or were potentially correct but that scenario has now played out without taking the US dollar to breakout of around $1.20 when the upside on the 20 year channel fundamentals was higher being as was expected by that understanding with some forecasters . My charts now show a top of $1.00, likely around August before the decline, if it indeed reaches the 20 year channel top as it is very close now, unless something made it break out of this extremely neat and reliable 20 year trend. Not seeing much at all presently to say the US will be showing such economic strength and QT to do such a magical feat to a 20 year perfect trendline. At least for me it is now a fairly assured fundamental channel prediction of Events. I won’t be the Lone Ranger reviewing the 20 year channel and I doubt it will get there before we see people bailing the dollar against further declines. I can’t explain the trend lines like this one and how they show where things will be, even though it is Events that cause market turns. However I see many that are simply perfect representations of very long term events.
Long real Gold and hold hold hold for my money.
Peter says if there is deflation and rates start to rise. why would they raise rates whrn there is deflation don't they raise rates whrn there is inflation?
I suspect he's referring to real rates
Is the PM bubble in the paper trade?
I don't get the reference to John Belushi.
Schiff, never change
Except when it comes to bitcoin
So, which was the right medicine he said at the end?
The last time Peter was prove wrong is TODAY .
Nasdaq hit a new Rocky Mountain high 8151.84 @ open this morning. Couple months ago Peter was telling us that this is not going to happen.
I don't think the US is going to do the right thing. I think they're going to print because everyone else is printing. So Fiat will decline and shares will keep going up. Popping the bubble is going to destroy the global economy.
peter shill is a joke
@@yhmoyyewhon6225 agreed
Honestly, I think flipping coin is far more accurate than his predictions.
@@Radnally agreed
Wow glad I found this video...such an intelligent discussion!
Sorry to say...but have been hearing that argument since 1980 when gold hit a interlay high of $875- Then the CFTC initiated “liquidation only” orders, and gold dropped like a rock.
Thank you....People love Peter Schiff !!!!
I hadn't watched Peter Schiff for some time - I got it and he was just saying the same thing. But his analysis, which I felt was accurate - but way early - may finally be happening. hard to say because no one knows the future.
peter, whats the percentage of someones wealth u reckon should be in physical gold?
10% at least
@@andy-ti9zf is more better? letssay up tu 1/3 of your wealth in physical gild
@@noname-yh2fv the advisable % of pms in a portfolio is %5 to %10 of portfolio value.when the economy is shaky up your pm holdings as it will protect your wealth
Bravo Peter, bravo!
What do you think will happen? Will the Fed own up to their mistakes and lets interest rates explode? Or will we enter hyperinflation? Why?
I think hyperinflation... They will blame all of the chaos on trump, capitalism or some other scapegoat... the fed will try everything to shift the blame somewhere else... hopefully, people will catch on to what's really been going on since 1913...
Gold price per ounce is irrelevant....the total ounces above ground x price = market cap of gold $7T? it's already pretty high. Silver at like $60B is definitely cheaper...
Let me guess the economy is going to collapse this time
Uhhh, there has never been a time in HISTORY when the economy of an empire does NOT collapse. EVERY SINGLE "EMPIRE" in known HISTORY.
@@interesteraser Lol. So....the timeline is 100s or thousands of years. That's not relevant for your life. Find something else to worry about.
@@kreteman7779 Ur the one "worried"...u sound like an 8 year old on a road trip . "Are we there yet?!?!" 😂🤣
@@interesteraser What an insightful response. I didn't expect anything less.
no way....u mean for the 5469th time since 2011?
Schiff is thinking that some people will request physical gold delivery. That's might not be the case if people are buying on margin or have any debts to pay them out, especially if debts are denominated in paper currencies. In short terms the equation is clear: price of gold is tied to FED balance sheet. FED expanded money supply x3 times, Gold moved x3 times higher.
What about silver stocks??
What about them ???
Eventually this will happen but I’m not sure I’ll be alive to see it..
If you look at Japan, they are doing what US does now for over 20 years already. They have more debt than US. That's why i think that it will take al long time before everything happens like predicted here.
jop stende I think the big difference is that Japanese like the Chinese are great savers so most of the JAPAN Japanese govt debt is owned by Japanese themselves. 60% of Americans are so in debt they are living week to week with nec to no savings. Not sure this can go another ten years in the US.
Russia has dumped all its treasuries, Japan is net seller and China is also selling as much as they can without causing a crash in prices which won’t help them as they are holding over $1.5 trillion plus. If US treasuries rates decline another 1% - 2% is guess more hedge funds will sell. It’s all one giant Ponzi scheme and we are the suckers working for Monopoly money. Let’s hole the day of the US losing its status as global reserve currency isn’t a sudden one and there some orderly transition
Still alive?
Yup , but still going strong in that print to oblivion strategy 👍🏻 I’m sure we aren’t done yet and my pet rocks are still waiting to be pet 🤷🏻♂️
Raise them interest rates to prevent the dollar from crashing further.
My my what a tangled web we weave 🤔
How about new theory - Euro milkshake theory? EBC borrowed so many euros that reverse carry trade will start new bull market for euro and bear market for dollar.
Trinidad James stepdad.... That's all you need to know about the value of gold
Good to hear Peter trusts the trust etf, I can only do so much with my 401k
it seems like the govts debt will be transfered from their balance sheet to the FED's.
Brent and Peter, two legends together in one room. :)
... holding hands
Why does Schiff assume that dollar hyperinflation would be a disaster? I think that after dollar inflation goes to over, say, 10%/month, people will switch to silver, silver-backed cryptocurrency, and even unbacked cryptocurrency. I see that as a good thing.
great interview
many thanks for the vid (y)
I've listened to Peter Schiff for a long time now - in GENERAL I think he is right....where I think he goes horribly wrong is getting into too specific predictions. I expect he'll be right in the end, but the market noise that happens between this point and his prediction takes us in all kinds of directions that he just can't see. He was right about the Fed and interest rates - but not totally. they did raise rates a bit and it was ok - but then they went too far and will need to lower them. He is clearly right in this case, but the in between was totally wrong. Rates could go up a bit. I actually think the quantitative tightening was probably more damaging...but then what do I really know.
Was this filmed in Peter's Connecticut home? I wonder if his wife is a blonde or brunette these days. That's what's REALLY important. I want to hear HER talk for a change.
Obviously debt can't keep increasing because increasing debt cannot be repaid. If inflation is increasing every year then why is gold and silver not increasing in price with all other goods? Obvious manipulation and manipulation cannot last just like increasing debt cannot last. This is only logical and also cyclical. We had gold at $35 an ounce in 1972 and $250 an ounce in 2000 and $1300 in 2019 so the overall trend is increasing not decreasing so holding gold is a smart move in the long run. In the short term you can always bet on the stock market or other liabilities and make a higher return but the safe bet is gold and silver in the long run.
Yes I agree 100%
WTF? So Peter just debunked Brent's Milkshake Theory like that and Brent just accepted it? Holy shit Brent's spent the last year in interview after interview talking about this and thats it??
Good point, I was thinking about the same thing
This was recorded before Brent started his Milkshake tour.
@@consciouscrypto3090 Ok that makes much more sense... I see in the details it's was recorded on October 20, 2017. I figured this was a recent video being April 2019 and not something from 2017 which is a bit dated in todays world. I really would like to see Brent and Peter in an interview again because it seemed Peter got Brent to backoff on his milkshake theory quite easily in 2017 but it seems that Brent went back did his homework and his much more convinced about the dollar making a run after he shot this video.
@@vlcheish I'm hoping there's some smart people lurking who can further breakdown the following impromptu Peter/Brent debate: ruclips.net/video/JjPh45E8euk/видео.html
Brents long term view is similar to Peters, the milkshake theory applies to the meantime, and today its looking like a sound theory.
GLD is *not* physical gold. If gold is eventually remonetized, GLD will stop trading and cut you a check at yesterday's price.
70% gold 15% silver 5% Tesla 10% Cash. That's my 5 year plan. 19 months in and I would not change a thing.
When you go to the IRS you should force them to take 200,000 in gold and silver coin and fox news and explain why every one should pay all depts in gold and silver coin
There not printing cash 1.6tril & stable rest is smoke and mirrors.not conducive to hyper inflating . more likely system lockup. Cash shortage .😎
they do not physically print very much money anymore... yet they are "creating" trillions of USD and other currency - like it is going out of style. This money has not "hit" the main economy ... just yet. Yet the banks will not be able to raise the interest rates, much, without crashing the world economy. The banks love inflating the asset bubble.
drx1 xym you said it better than me ! thanks 😎
Looking good, Peter.
From a neautral here is gold a good investment over say 5 years from now .
Over the last few years EM markets have been hedging on the US dollar. Gold has gone crazy in most currencies except the US. The US is declining. It won’t be long and the EM will see the gold bargain if they convert their US dollars into gold. In effect this will drown the US in their own dollars. On top of this Russia is talking with China re direct sale of oil away from the petro dollar. Looks like the mighty US dollar will be no value in no time.No wonder they are working so hard to keep the US looking so fine and dandy.
March 2023, we're about half way through the prediction. I'm actually surprised the calmness of the SVB depositors. Maybe we're just not seeing it right now, maybe a bit later.
Hey guys, I've been confused about why gold hasn't rocketed like gold bugs have been saying for a long time. I think gold is still a good investment but it would be worth your while to watch "dollar milkshake" theory by Brent Johnson on real vision.
Very very interesting
Also check out Harvey s dents video special that's about an hour long...
Also enlightenment now by steven pinker
Gold isn't skyrocketing because the timeframe of 500 years. Starting this year. Good luck and good speed
Raise the price of gold and silver is the answer!
Peter is moving pieces in his mind.
50-100 fold ! Would be nice if a couple of my miners did that. We’ll see..
Make a lot of sense. But please don't deny manipulation as before. I buy gold and silver precisely because they are manipulated. They must go up since there is limited amount of them.
why would you trade against a manipulated market? are you stupid?
While Peter is talking about USD becoming worthless the rest of the world is buying US bonds to get interest and also to benefit from the depreciation of their own currency.
2017, very relevant today.
What did we learn? Diversification is important. The nightmare scenerio made my father poor as he locked all his assets in real estate with memories of WW2. Invest in human productivity. Why not choose microchips instead of gold. The fixation on a single asset class is a recipe for grinding poverty.
Printing money is a miracle for the Federal Reserve and the politicians... spend more.. print more.. we are bankrupt....
How can you buy Gold when the Dollar you want to pay it, has no value ?
Claus Wolfgang Meyer buy in the next 18 months
My question as well
Claus Wolfgang Meyer You buy now while the price is low. Check out ITM Trading on RUclips and follow them, you will soon get an understanding of what gold is.
I think there will be a recession mid to late next year. I bought bitcoin, gold and if we keep going after I ran, I will buy oil. Were should I keep my cash? I have a bank of america savings account and I would like to pul my money out before the next collapse.
According to Peter Schiff, is gold ever going down?
it will never go down!!! you have to understand how this economy works!! the system is going to explode because of the intrests!!! all countries are taking loans and those loans cost big intrests wich will make people poor and it will come to a point that many banks will not be able to pay back those high intrests!!! system has come to the point to make a RESET and begin from 0
if you buy gold and it drops 20% from todays price.... how well is it going to work for you as an inflation hedge when you gotta first make up a 20% loss. precious metals is a joke.
Buy silver - just don't go crazy. Cash is still king and appears it will be for some time. When? who knows. Don't put all your wealth into PMs.
The reason i want more PMs is because no matter what happens PMs will not fail. The dollar CAN fail.
@@streamofthought8662 not arguing the long term - just remember we need to live in the present with the US Dollar until something changes. just don't forget the reality of the present. Buying PMs in a controlled way is a good idea - just don't put yourself in a bad position to deal with the realities of our currency - which is that it looks like it's going to be king for a bit longer so you'll need it.
@@freeman7296 i agree the dollar is king for now. not sure whether the deflation will occur from foreign dollar debts coming due or if the fed will offset it quickly with mass printing. either way its good to hedge both ways.
@@streamofthought8662 No argument with hedging, just don't be irrational.
Notice how he never mentioned that he is a gold salesman haha
Gold doesn't require a salesman.
@@mdharis He literally has a gold coin business
I want to see Zimbabwe here.
Ahhh, no we don´t....No we don´t . *~XD*
@@kozmickarmakoala3526 : that's wher we are headed too.
That would suck.. good for me if gold and silver is worth a lot but it would be crazy
Gold and silver wouldn't matter... food and water would matter. Guns would matter. We don't wanna see Zimbabwe here.
Schiff actually sounded logical rather than just being someone who rambles how gold will go to a gazillion. Best interview he's ever given imo
The magic words permabulls have as their last vestige of hope:
"At some point...."
Years later, they are still repeating it.
Peter rock's
Singing the same old song for over 10 years now Peter.
J Hoodied Peter is correct look at gold now
Sounds logical.
Right, the Fed is dead. As a private bank, it should have been abolished long time ago as it is the main culprit for all financial crises in 1987, 1997, 2001-3, 2008 which still persists to the current final financial crash. What will come next, Peter Schiff, this is the key question now. Gold is not the solution.
Well, I'm convinced. Do you have a newsletter? I would like to subscribe.
They never admit.
A broken clock is right twice a day. Peter Schiff saying a recession will happen will eventually be true.
He is good at understanding the economy but timing is his problem, is like he ignores irrationality in his calculations
Mike Dobson you’re an idiot
This dude is like listening to Art Bell
Nice disclaimer - This is not financial advice... haha, then why bother talking and predicting?
Great, let's have another mechanism to funny money everyone. You can keep gold cheap just buy futures. How does the guy who actually buys gold get a return if these markets can artificially inflate/deflate price?
Why not go with a crypto currency + social contract for the purposes of tax collection ? Money and gold are not working in 21 century !!!!!!
Lol gold and money dont work in 21st century hahaha funny
im gonna take a wild guess before watching this, and say peter schiff says the us economy its gonna collapse.
You are way off base. Why would you think he's gonna say that lol
@@johannussteinmarch6403 but he doesn't know anything about finance. His portfolio is severely underperforming the market
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Doctor Marvin!!! Doctor LEO MARVIN.....!
This amazes me. One always talks about social security and Medicare cuts when SHTF happens. Well the SSI, MedicAid loafers far exceed the social group in numbers and expenses. So why is there no talk of taking or cutting their funds? Looks like America prefers the loafers above the people on social security who EARNED THEIR BENEFITS!
In order for the government to do the right thing, it would require the right people of moral fiber, and there's nothing but career politicians who just want to get re elected telling people everything is fine and kicking the can down the road for the Millennials to deal with.
This metal suppression can last 100 years.
The FED does not print money. This is false. He should be better than that and Johnson should have pushed him on how does the FED print money. By law, they are not allowed to print money.
They don't PRINT 💰 and go shopping @ nearest supermarket. They are the "Highest Priest" of the lenders. They make loans.
Money appear when the loan is given and disappear when it's paid , it should be zero $ left @ the end of the day
And once again Peter was dead on!
Indeed..!
Selling gold short when you don't own any gold is a fraud and the Fed should change the law.you can't sell a car to someone when you don't own one.
You are asking a banking mafia, The Fed, to fix our market for gold ? !
You are counting on criminals to do the right thing.
Priest federation and international law to take over authoritarian international law and political government in West.
im nerding out so hard right now
I have golden tooth. I will be fine during next recession.
Sounds like your face is recession proof
You have a good head on your shoulders
Tooth, singular? I hope it's a molar
Peter Schiff as been saying that for so many years . This is getting very boring I fall asleep just listening to this Schitt 😀😅😂💵💰🏦🇺🇾 . From Uruguay with Love ❤️
I know 4 the gold, But why is dollar still soo good ?? :-/
Boomers work for a living are you kidding me? I saw a boomer the other day working minimum wage job, she looked like she was about to commit suicide. I asked her to tell me how hard it was for when she was growing up.
Buy gold/silver, short US Treasuries, buy emerging markets, short S&P500 Index - at least he has been consistent for 10 years!
Yep
Been wrong for 10 years means something
@@fallenangel2123 He had been forcasting 2008 since 2001. Would you have said in 2007 that he has been wrong for 6 years?
@@ToPlantASeed1 been too early = wrong
@@fallenangel2123 uhhh no. Been too early = been to early and that's it. You have to be too early because timing it exactly is impossible.
@@ToPlantASeed1 Think again Anthony.
What you say is:
wrong × 9 = right × 1
Peter is wrong for 9 consecutive years ...
Zephaniah 1:14-18... is well on its way......Acts 17:30,31.......Zephaniah 2:3......2 Timothy 3:1-5....
1 Timothy 6:9,10......Matthew 7:13,14......Isaiah 9:6,7......Isaiah 60:12.....Luke 21:25,26.....
Isaiah 45:18,22.......psalm 37:29,34........proverbs 2:21,22......proverbs 1:5-33......Daniel 2:44....
Romans 10:9-15......2 Corinthians 4:3,4......1 John 5:19.....John 3:16......Matthew 24:3-22.....
Psalm 2:1-12......Isaiah 48:17-19.....Revelation 12:9-12.....Romans 15:4....Revelation 11:18....
2 Peter 3:3-7.....Ezekiel 38:23......psalm 83:18 KJV......Isaiah 45:18,22....1 Corinthians 6:9,10....
Revelation 22:15.....Isaiah 61:1-11.....Daniel 2:44.....psalm 37:9-11....Ecclesiastes 1:4....
Psalm 115:16....
I just clicked on This video to ask, is that peter schiff in the thumbnail, or obi wan kenobi?
Mark of the beast microchip take over
MORE PAPER GOLD THAN REAL GOLD ???