Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
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- Опубликовано: 29 авг 2024
- Graham Allison
Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School
Niall Ferguson
Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Senior Fellow, Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Samantha Power
United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2013-2017)
Founding Executive Director, Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, Harvard Kennedy School
2003 Pulitzer Prize for “A Problem from Hell”: America and the Age of Genocide
Arne Westad (Moderator)
S.T. Lee Professor of U.S.-Asia Relations, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Harvard Kennedy School
As a citizen of South East Asia, I observe China with interest as it's just next door. I used to hear in the 70s n 80s how poor they the Chinese were. Now for the past 15 years they have benefitted us. We are always vigilant with them but not fearful. We are, in general, fearful of US n allies' constant interference in this area in the guise of protecting sea lanes n endless nonsensical (as it has caused so many deaths elsewhere this noble word) Freedom. Friendly, sincere Westerners investors n tourists are always welcome but leave your guns at home please.
you are a wise man! Where there is american, there is a lot of bombings and sufferings.
To the speaker who grunted at the end of every other sentence - we won't name names - thanks so much. Since you were only having a one-on-one conversation in private, you don't need to act like a professional and think about your audience. Keep up the great work
Great talk. Really respect these great thinkers.
There's beauty and majesty in the breadth and nuance of ancient Greece's approach to it's own history and politics. It is saddening that Sparta and Athens - spurred by winds of pride, fear and interest - lay waste to the potential of ancient Greece despite the insight and perspicacity of Thucydides. How will we meet our 21st century winds - what have we learnt in 2500 years?
Everybody gangsta until they have to read Thucydides in the original...
So true.
They end every statement on an uptic, as if it were a question. Would drive me crazier if I kept watching it
in the past I heard talks about the threat of a rising China and the intention of containing China from both sides and wasn't sure to what extent that's true. With the publication of Grahm Allison''s Destined for War, I am finally convinced that this kind of mutual distrust has a basis and is very real and will have big impact on the shape the world takes in the future.
The British gentlemen is making some very good point. His criticisms of China are fair and constructive. Samantha, on the other hand, talks like an empty vessel filled with unrealistic and impractical ideologies. Her speech on the issue of Israel in UN was what gave me the negative impression of her. She never stop talking about the Human right, and rightfully so if she had constructive criticism on that matter, but all she's really defending is the western liberal propagandas. If there'll ever be a war between China and The U.S, it will likely to be triggered by immature politicians, or academics as she like to identify herself with, such as her.
Great session despite some annoyances! Looking forward to read the book.
why the hell are the people clapping for Powers! Her answers pathetic!
4 Americans discussing 1 side of the story. Like 4 poor men deciding whether to rob a rich man. At least get 1 Chinese in the debate.
Would simply being chinese make their perspective automatically valuable?
They could know nothing about anything.
He's Scottish
Ferguson's from Scotland; his nationality is British.
Gordon Freemason ....you missed the point, they should at least try to include one Chinese that knows about China. Unless you believe the no Chinese knows about China, then I have nothing to say, and I encourage you to believe in that going forward. It's not hurting any Chinese. It's not the Chinese that's misinformed.
Go back to playing fifa while the adults take care of things
Now, domestic consumption is a key element of China’s development and stability. China’s economy is moving from exports toward domestic consumption. In the next stage the whole world, not only China, will move away from carbon fossil energy toward new energy production technologies. This is and will be the game changer.
As always, Mr. Ferguson steals the show.
Mark McAllister with his racist Victorian outlook on Britain’s place in the world.
Great scholar, great scholar. Crystal clear, focused, and imaginative.
Really hope Neil is right.. Wont be war if there is this transition of power. Great realistic discussion.
Few comments about Graham Allison's part in the discussion - not his book. Very well reasoned and seems to outline a scenario which is likely to be around the corner.
Anyone else find it distracting--Ambassador Power's manner of expressing herself is such a spot-on... for lack of a better word... 'impression' of her former boss (President Obama)? No disrespect to either of them intended, in any way. In fact, the ambassador is clearly a person with very keen, erudite opinions on some of the most important matters of our time. But I couldn't detach myself from her body language, her gesticulations, the cadence of her voice and pretty much every rhetorical nuance she expresses--they are all, point-for-point, mirror images of Obama.
The phrase comes to mind “too late”, the west underestimated the success China was likely to have in industrialising, then the “experts” predicted it would fail , regularly , year on year. Wrong again.
And now they think they it will be easy to manipulate them, it won’t, the only way to influence China is via market access, they need to export. But be careful not to drive them into the arms of the Russians.
As for the military, they may not yet match the USA but are strong enough to inflict unacceptable damage, the ship has sailed , academics and statesmen need to understand this.
How time flies. You see, you do not see many discussion on China-US competition inside China.
China is like the introvert kid in the class. She focuses on improving herself instead of comparison. US is like the king who is anxious about being supassed by others.
Maybe it's time for China to burdern more international responsibilities and US to focuses more on her internal affairs.
no, behind the closed doors of bejing there is a lot of conversation about china-usa relationship. The chinese citizens are not permitted to talk about these things.
Compare to Eastern Europe study, there are no top experts in China study
I don't think you realize how few records there are of chinese history.
What they talk reminds me a Chinese idiom: "An elephant described by blindmen". It means when some blindmen touched the elephant they could give different images, one said: "It is just a soft pipe." when he touched the nose, another said: "No, it is a big leaf.", the 3rd one said: "No, you all wrong, it is a big pillar." and the 4th one said: "Accurately, it is a wall!" ..., you know where they have touched, right?
There's no trap, Thuci or Thudi,
China is on her own trajectory.
Talkingheadscademians are the worst fortune tellers.
Simple - China gets up every morning, works hard & manufacturers products. USA looks down on manufacturers and prefers talking ,discussions & pushing paper on laptops.
sad but true
Yes, but remember: they Chose to deindustrialize, stabbing American workers in the back to get more of that sweet sweet Wall Street stock market high. And now that's going to smack them upside the head.
@@QuizmasterLaw Can’t deny that
The video is odd. When I slide forward, in the small window I can see people and graphics. When I watch the video, I see empty chairs. I can hear the discussion
Would China be the economic power it now is if American corporations never outsourced so much manufacturing from America to China? If China's economic gravity is derived from its manufacturing base then why doesn't the USA put in place a policy to revive and strengthen its manufacturing?
Starts ca 19:40
We need to bring in Victoria Nuland too and her husband KAGAN !
what peace he talking about we are at war right now and how many wars america has start for the last 70 years he is joking I think serious people like him say those thing's unbelievable
Samantha Powers uses a lot of words but says very little.
it's so much worse than that: she spouts wrong ideas which get other people killed.
1:01:30 Powers' reply that "There will not be a great deal" is founded upon an appeal to good behavior. If there are three models of international relations (Realism, Liberalism, Socialism/Constructivism), hers is based in socialism, on constructing behavioral norms. Rather than disputing the point with economic evidence or data on relative interests, she argued that a personal animosity for Trump negates any possibility for "a great deal."
How did the "appeal to good behavior" work out for Sam back in Rwanda? Or in Syria - which by the way is her monster, her baby, her little liberal experiment. You can't ask many of the Rwandans or the Syrians, what with their being dead thanks to liberal idiots like Powers.
Seriously she was none other than Hillarys cheerleader, confidante, and the psychopomp of the Syrian slaughter. She put the slag in slaughter.
LMAO! I thought exactly the same thing. Lots of words but I couldn’t get much logic or meaning from those words. It was really tiresome to listen to, but does indicate she has a good vocabulary.
We NEVER abuse or steal from OUR people…
but other people outside of USA
x super, I was being sarcastic: our Corporate Overlords steal from everybody, our own peopel and everybody elses people
I didn't get the meaning of the capital words.
Well, Facebook wont let us use italics, so I sometimes hus CAPS for emphasis ;)
I am fresh from mainland of China, where "youtube" is blocked, the world is wonderful here.
Samantha Power loves war
Probably, and when Dunham's IG report comes in she's going to need a really good lawyer. Same for Grahm Ellison!
Presuposes that both America and China don't consider war a positive and useful tool - which contradicts the principles of geopolitics which they both follow.
Great to hear Niall Ferguson finally weigh in on this issue. His pet theory on "networks" never took much hold in the public mind nor do I believe his peers.
Ancient history has many lessons.
Few of which apply to a nuclear world.
It’s THE BOMB PEOPLE.
Learn to love it.
That 'lady' is unberable. No wonder she was on obummer cabinet .... 'academics' god ..... protect us from them. IYI
Facinating discussion spoiled by the presentation - making assessment difficult.
At the risk of sounding sexist, because anytime you criticize a female these days you're either sexist or a misogynist, Samantha Power added nothing enlightening to this conversation. I liked the analysis provided by Niall Ferguson but he makes clear his bias of the political elite when he bashes Trump and mostly Bannon. I'm certainly no academic scholar (something I'm not ashamed of) but it doesn't take a scholar to understand that words stated during the political race mean nothing. It's the actions that take place when and if one is elected or appointed to their position that is the essence of policy. In addition, all political leaders use rhetoric as part of global political strategy. So it should come as no surprise that what any nation's leader says isn't what is actually taking place behind the scenes and out of the public and elite media's forum.
Similar to the prevalent ignorance of history, especially applied history, among politicians, the absolute majority of the MSM members lack even a rudimentary knowledge of history (a suspicion confirmed by the Greatest living American Philosopher and historian Victor Davis Hanson). Most of them came out of very PC and shallow college JOURNALISM programs (in the neighborhood of Polisci range intellectually in terms of academic rigor) and know nothing about what let to the War between the Spartans and the Athenians and what lessons could be drawn from it. It probably should not surprise anyone if the majority of the MSM members think Thucydides is a watering hole in DC or a celebrity frequented restaurant where leakers and Obama cronies trade their unlawful secrets.
Fuck me she loves the sound of her own voice while actually not saying anything
Didn't they learn how to sync sound with frames in the 1930's?
Greater China is beneficial to our world,and they are kind and smart to contribute to the world. US should not compress and push China too much or view China as potential enemies. China and US should be best partners and friends, and together they will make a better world in the future
The problem may end up being, as the good lady pointed out, that we (The US and Chinese) have too much in common.
Kindness doesn't mean stealing intellectual property from American companies via the Chinese government's hacking. That's an aggressive assault. There is nothing kind about that.
Paul }}} you are deluded. China is on vengence and revenge of the Guojian. :)
China is most certainly our enemy, lol. Maybe not the people but the leadership is. They are building islands and plan to take over the US. Under Liberal control, this would most certainly be inevitable.
You are delusional: China is and intends to remain a deeply authoritarian, communist state, and intends to export that. Allowing yourself to think otherwise is suicidal.
China has its own structural challenges to deal with, we have to be careful to avoid being too deterministic. Widespread income inequality, internal unrest in Tibet and East Turkestan, HUGE national debt (300% of Chinese GDP), deep inequality between regions, dependency on American and Japanese top technology, demographic issues as its large population is getting old and the effects of the 'One-child policy' are beginning to take its toll, etc. It is LIKELY that China will threaten US hegemony, but that is far from saying it WILL happen.
This is surprisingly objective. They didn't even fall back on democracy and human rights that much, which is highly abnormal considering that's what the academic type usually use to justify the thousand-year American reich.
The Year is 2023...and no it looks like they can't escape the trap...I shall update again in Six years.
i think it's a speech for book selling
this lady is too full of herself
"ἄνδρες γὰρ πόλις, καὶ οὐ τείχη οὐδὲ νῆες ἀνδρῶν κεναί". This is the most shoking thing I have ever heard in my life. Thucydides book 7.77.7. Which means the state is its people nor its walls or its ships without them. For my point of wiev I think as it happened after Peloponnesian war others will benefit from American - Chinese conflict. Maybe India or more possible Muslims.
Niall Ferguson a beau se faire pousser la barbe, il n'arrivera pas à se faire prendre au sérieux pour autant.
He makes a pretty good living by praising Kissinger, the Rothschilds, and other important people.
70 years of peace?? Where? On Mars?
maybe he said wolrd war scale
Depends on how you define 'war' i.e. how many people have to be involved before an incident becomes a skirmish becomes a war and for how long ? From both extremes it could be said there either was never any peace at any time in history or everything was always peaceful except for periods XYZ etc.
Well, well. We have a thick wickets . Eh, Doctor?
Graham took 500 years of history and recorded 16 cases of Super power challenges, of which 12 out of 16 ended in war, or a probability of 75%. Two points of objection here. First, ancient history/mentality is unlikely to be applicable to present and future trends. Second, the invention of nuclear weapons. If Graham has used a timeline of last 50 years instead of last 500 years, then 3 out of the 4 emerging power challenges ended in no war, or a probability of 25% of a war. The threat of mutually assured destruction is very real with the advent of nuclear weapons and other WMDs. Hence, policy makers will not be that trigger happy.
Ok points. What about covert war, drones and proxies war
Agree, the only path that would pave the mediation is a general agreement that covers all facets of integrational steps-to-be-established
Why was Taiwan never discussed? Is the topic forbidden? (by China?) Or is avoiding it “the better part of valor”?
Harvard would lose its Chinese ‘grant $’.
Taiwan is an iota.
My goodness, these professors discover so much! "When rising power begins to screw with an established power war might result" oh, what a revelation. Also, you can't make ropes of sand, and water - pay attention! - flows downhill. Whoda knew, right?!
The challenge of the Soviet Union( Russia) since 1945 has always been somewhat directly military and hard aggressive intelligence activities which had to be checked by armed force, surrogate secondary wars like Korea and the 1971 Indo- Pakistan war and 73 June war; the undeclared actual submarine war of 1968 -1993 and the war over Ukraine in 2014 indicative of Russia role in checking the development of other communist superpowers.
The overwhelming view Churchill took over WW2 was of a Soviet threat that existed for real from 1945 due to the establishemtn oif the unstoppable power of the Russian Army when in the Battle of Moscow by the end of 1941, when in the battle of Moscow , the drive for Moscow by General Guderain, tricked, by the intact Instar reservoir into attacking directly into the Armies of General Rossolovosky and the North Korean Army in its its most terrifying form with its Rockets and deathhead SS replica divisions. Two weeks into the Battle of Moscow Hitler knew the destruction to his spearhead SS and Army units was unsustainable and decided to declare war on the USA and change to defensive war to maximise the time to take the greatest toll on his ideaological enemies. The Korean war demonstrated again the p0wer of the Communist armies and MCArthur wsa twice almost driven into the sea. South Korea was saved by the decision of Stalin not to extend the air cover of the Russian Airforce flying NK Migs.
By 1955 the Soviet jet bomber force had already developed a large Jet bomber force which in not guarnteed to be useful against American targets could not really be stopped over Berlin, Paris or London. The new AA beam riding missiles Terriers and Seaslug were useless against bombers twice as fast flying twice as high as anticipated. Suereior Soviet SAMs and defensive Migs made reconaisance over the Soviet Union minimal till 1960-1.
Total American superiority, what happened in 1993, 2014 over Ukraine and all those strange collisions taking out USN ABM ships off Russia, Just no competent navigators or old rusting ships. In 1993 Russian SSn s seems to have rammed the major development Han SSN and possibly greatly restricted subsequent Chinese nuclear sub development and in demonstrated its ultimate cold War SSN as capable of closing on the RN SSNs at full speed undetected , The Alfa SSN in 1970 hearable across thge Atlantic was by the late 1980s silent below 20K and by 1993 at any speed. Recently things have emerged about the 2nd Korean war in 1968 and the Vladivostok planned Indian Naval campaign of the 1971 war with Pakistan, which demonstrated Soviet naval missile sworked as the tanker war in 1988 showed the ultimate cold war tactical missile power of the USN
Dan my man! I was hoping that Neil would end his Power story by turning the table saying it wasnt surprising, alas h i was disappointed. Anyhow, I am sure it was in jest and he did walk it back after Dans remark. It was a bit painful seeing her reaction to it.
Other then that. Their puzzlement at what would happen if the US did pull back was quite telling and to the point. If the US vacated the field there would be no trap. Their reaction to this illustrates that pullback is indeed unimaginable.
No war cannot be avoided
China is much more stable politically and economically U.S need to learn something from them not to against them
All way they to talk about war
Of course China should be number 1 in Asia. They live there…
Introduction too long winded
The metrics given are incorrect. China is not number 1 in billionaires, GDP, overall economy, fastest computer, greatest AI ability etc... Even in 2021, let alone in the past. So, China has not displaced the US in many of the categories he listed. Also, military power, soft power/cultural power and then raw economic powers are the three greatest metrics for actual replacement Super power ability. China's rise is problematic in all three, especially in the future.
China is more likely to implode than become the world hegemon, which is the historical likelihood if we take a long term look at Chinese history.
Samantha Powers is unbelievably self absorbed and has zero guilt for the slaughter of a half million Syrians under her watch...😔
Please put dates .
Niall is wrong about Chinese debt, as of today, China decrease debt by 4.5 trillion! Name any country did that!!!!
Out of an economy the size of 8 Trillion. Good job, guys...
Watch BENJAMIN FREEDMAN 1961 speech how America entered world war 1.
I'm shocked she didn't know these things about China.
Your insight raises my awareness towards the current events now about China's conduct in the family of nations. I am wary of its conduct in fair trade practices and its bully attitude in the SCS towards its helpless neighbors. China wants the resources in SCS and strategic control over international waters it wants to call its own. Worse, it negotiates with nothing (SCS) for everything.
i love american brush off free world india and support china openly and smile :)
23:00 History is not present enough in senior decision making discussions. There is not enough knowledge of history in the room.....
You could add wisdom.
read more finance at Wall Street Atlas
It's all political jokes of today we laugh at it .unless we want to say goodbye to our loved ones.
Samantha has my grandfathers eyebrows
Thucydides, since he was Greek, should be pronounced Tukidides (with hard k (as in key) and e like in -e-nvelope) that is his real name. Harvard professor could spend 5 min online to check it out, before he started to teach Chinese officials how to pronounce it...in english...
........and this would be the best way to explane US-China relationship and ``trap`` Cninese pretend that they are not really smart (specially with foreign languages!!! hah) and from the other side - there comes load of hubris.... keep on paying horrendus amounts for tuitions
Thucydides is his English name, as Greece is the english name for Hellas.
Christ, get into the discussion already. Logorrhea of the highest order!
LOL 5 years have gone by, I hope all of you are ready for Armageddon.
For the moment, China's foreign policy is determined by its own economic interest, same for America and most nations. It wants Tibet and portions of the South China Seas for its potential resources (for economic growth and stability) and is investing vast amounts of national resources to that end. It has learned much from the economic miracle of "Japan and South Korea." Nations which were nurtured economically by the military protection of the United States and its economic system. And the "futile" arms competition of U.S and Russia in which Russia lost. So why compete with an arms race with America and waste valuable resources which could be invested in its own Economy like Japan and Korea.!
China is more interested in building "cities and factories" than aircraft carriers, or nuclear submarines to challenge the U.S. Navy in the worlds oceans. China has done well working within the present "world order" led by America and is secure in its borders and access to markets and resources. So why upset the "apple cart" with needless military adventurism and conflict with United States? Under the present "status quo of world trade," China in the span of a generation has become the No. 2 economic power in the world and lifted millions of its people from starvation and misery. The Chinese leadership were "pragmatic," when they realized that communism in its "economic" form was not working and pivoted to "capitalism" (180% change) in order to survive as a Nation, but also realized it needs the United States as a trade partner and "police man" of the world to thrive!
Hindsight has proved Nial Ferguson correct in the meeting with Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. They met and parted with a handshake, with President Trump praising their mutual friendship. And China for its part seems to be "tempering" its support with North Korea. Question is, what did Trump promise for Chinese help?
For the time being, "Thucydides Trap" is not happening between China and the United States. "Convergence" and mutual co-operation for mutual benefits seems to be the offing, with China content to play a secondary role in world affairs.
Nice analysis. :)
I would suggest reading his book, its very insightful to the entire situation.
This would be nice if it reflected reality, but in fact China *is* building up their military as their economic might increases. The buildup has been so dramatic that I wouldn't doubt that China is a military peer of the US in the near-coast areas of China. And that umbrella of military power will only extend further with time.
Ah! I do love these fascisti confabs!
我们始终相信，堡垒是从内部攻破的。 伟大的帝国，为何衰落？ 归根结底还是内部矛盾没有解决好。 美国即使解决了中国，如果解决不好自己的内部矛盾，结局仍是崩溃。 我们中国始终都把解决内部问题放在首位。
Yes you are correct China intentionally released the China/Wuhan virus. Any more disease comes by way of PRC expect a war
@@chrisgreene2623 Brain is a good thing, but you only have a mouth. The biggest problem in front of US is the Debt, but you can only see the virus. Certianly you don't, the rich want you see the virus, not the debt.
Even though the noted war criminal Kissinger recommends it, cooperation with any other nation is the way to go…
That was the weakest sentence I have read. Is It any wonder the elites do as they Please?
Please sit still and stop waving your hand around., you're making me feel giddy.
20:07
Harvard...the institution receiving the biggest amount of chinese blood money
Not lost on me at any rate.
It's always interesting to see a group of white men gathering to explain the motivations of non-white actors with absolutely no regard for their absence in these crucial conversations.
The identity politics discipline strikes again. If you Work on your subject competency and not your tribal affiliation, you too can earn your place on the panel.
With his western mindset Niall could hardly understand Chinese system. Niall still doesn't know what Chinese debt or investment to inside country has been mostly turned to be the public goods or long term national good asset, like high speed train system, power stations, airports, harbors, highway and other infrastructures that would be very important for Chinese further meaningful development. It is totally different from USA's debt, like expenditure on the wars, except the destruction in the world it hardly achieves any positive result. Now we really understood why USA majority rejects all those elites and think tanks, like Naill, and chooses Trump and the "technocratic" professionals.
American public opinion can change dramatically in the coming years: it's too early to declare Donald Trump a brilliant statesman, and dismiss elites & think tanks;
Richard Nixon used to be popular too, and then he was impeached
Eryk Pyts Any way, you like or not, someone has to try it to save USA and make USA great again, although Trump would be impeached. We Chinese think whoever declares the war or illegally bombs other sovereign country would be a real criminal or a bad apple in the world.
While you are correct that much of the Chinese debt has gone towards internal infrastructure and city building, the flip side of that coin is the corruption innate in a system where the government provides development funding to developers who are government run entities themselves. This situation is ripe for bribery, cronyism, lack of efficiency, and poor quality of product.
On top of this is the more serious situation of the Chinese housing bubble that was created by this massive push towards urbanization that China has undertaken in the past decade and a half. Coupled with the inability of Chinese citizens to invest outside the homeland market and you've created a massive housing bubble that dwarfs the American Housing Bubble of 2008. The government responded swiftly and forcefully to prop up the market in 2015, but if the Chinese housing market buckles it will pull down the entire Chinese economy along with Western economies as well.
Sure we have our US debt with nothing much to show for it. But I am much more concerned with the expanding housing bubble in China that relies on the demand of agrarian movement to urban areas along with the expansion of the middle class. Once that demand stalls, the housing bubble goes pop.
CRTtoVIP You worry too much, you can't imagine Chinese economical situation with your western "free market" thinking. Although Chinese private sector is booming rapidly China is still a state economical system, the government owns more than 80% country resources. In addition, in China most new house owners have very few portion of mortgage from the bank, sometime they pay full cash, not like in western most house owners have big portion of mortgage, which caused 2008 western serious economical crisis. That is also the reason why China never has economical crisis cycle, which happens regularly in western. You'd better to pay much more your attention to your backyard or your country's home work, except your western war machine garbage you have no more money ball to play.
So when the housing prices inevitably stagnate and fall and people see the value of their real estate properties dwindling what are they going to do? Well they are going to try to sell, but the glut of real estate that is unused is going to make that impossible and then the people of China will realize what they bought with their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th investment property was actually worth nothing. Confidence in the Zhong Gong will disappear when people can't repay the loans they've taken out to pay for these investment properties.
While i may not be familiar with China's planned economy per se, I can tell you that the laws of economics apply regardless of what system you are under. The government will step in as they always do to try to prevent fear which will only undermine confidence in the Chinese government's ability to control its economy. As you said yourself, "China never has economical crisis cycle." This is an illusion. I can assure you, there will be a downturn in your economy and your government is just as helpless to prevent it from happening as ours was. In fact, it will be the intervention by the Chinese government that will ultimately cause the collapse of your housing market.
There is no real demand for the homes/apartments/condos that are being sold. They are being treated as investments which mature over time. Again, this is what happened in 2008 when Americans took out 3 different mortgages in the hopes of reselling in the future for a large profit. That's not how real estate works. People trying to get rich quick will over-leverage and collapse the system once the housing market cools off and they aren't able to resell their 2nd or 3rd home. As a Westerner, I've seen the pattern repeated over and over again. No government can prevent that.
She’s so salty!!!!
1:00:16 It appears that thinly-disguised-insult Niall Ferguson was conned by "fART of the Deal". Samantha Power, on the other hand, clearly sees the ineffectual braggart behind the curtain.
Neil Ferguson great , I will get this book looks interesting
TRADE WAR!!!!
The fact that English has already become the global language coupled with the diversity of American culture means that China's leadership -- assuming no political or economic implosion -- will be in economic size only. It's 90% Han Chinese -- that's not going to turn into global soft power. As for the economy, with 1.4 billion people, per capita GDP is and will remain puny.
SilvanaDil Great point. I look at it this way. Who wants to move to China? Not many people outside of Asia. Who are China's allies? North Korea seems like their only true idealogical ally. They might achieve economic dominance, but are and will likely remain ideologically insignificant.
To be honest, the only reason that you are so ignorant is that you can only live in the so-called " Latin world". You use English (originally from Latin) means that you are brainwashed by western propaganda and western media (You don't know the rest of world thinks). If you know other languages such as Hindi, Chinese, Japanese, Arabic and so on, you will know that all the world is laughing at you. According to the world history, western just plays vital roles in the world for just 200 years which is just a glimpse. In contrast, China and India are the leading and dominant power in the world for 4000 years. By the way, if you look up the Wikipedia, there are 10 different ways regarding the world language ranking. And among them, 8 of 10 top 1 global language is Chinese (1.4 billion users). However, English only rank at 7 (0.3 billion users). More importantly, the world is coming back to the original features, means that Asian culture will keep dominating the world and western culture will withdraw back to Europ again.
SilvanaDil That is your western only thing left? Please keep your own prides and your confidence, except your political correct, as Trump mentioned. Soft power always follows after the hard power, that is reason why these three pay so much attention to China and wasted so much their time talking about China.
SilvanaDil When they are in decline they become very sensitive, they lost their confidence and they have no more sense of humour. When they have problem they always say all are the Chinese or other country's fault. When they steal they think everyone else is the thief or spy. When they have very bad track records (they have declared so many wars since WWII) they condemns others about "human right violations", and so on. When their media, their government and their markets have been controlled by the interests groups they endlessly remind other countries to follow the rules of "free speech", "democracy" and "free market". When they consume so much cheaper "Made in China" in their daily life and their country borrowed so much money from China they say China is just a copy cat and would collapse soon ... funny, isn't it?
SilvanaDil No matter how glorious and beautiful your system was before, you could be fail unless you continue to reform or modify yourselves because there is never the end of evolution (Fukuyama's The End of History) or political correct.
India and china oldest civilisation war
Barely a comment about Taiwan.
When it comes to American-Chinese relations, there is only one issue - Taiwan. The United States stole that province in 1950. If the United States does not stop meddling with Taiwan, China will target the dollar and rightfully take Taiwan back.
China isn't sophisticated enough, size isn't everything.
Actually, Japan was quite satisfied with the outcome of WWI. But that's an aside. Most of the points I was going to make to be wary of overestimating China's position were made by the panel, particularly by Prof. Ferguson, such as overvaluing PPP v nominal GDP. I will mention in passing that cement has played a large role in both China's debt and China's housing bubble, among other things. I will also say that the moderator's final point about overconfidence is well taken. China's diplomacy in it;s own front yard has been needlessly heavy handed, in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, in South Korea, and even in Hong Kong. Just as people had forgotten about Tibet and Tienanmen, or given China a pass, the naked power grab in the South China Sea focused negative attention on China's rising naval power, making it a threat to it's neighbors and to the region instead of the natural and inevitable rise of a Great Power.
It's always interesting to see groups of white men gathering to discuss the motivations of non-white actors. Are there so few non-white international relations experts that we cannot invite them to challenge notions in these conversations?
I'm thankful for Dr. Allison's work, but it would be interesting to see him in conversation with his Asian counterpart with regard to his book.
Stupid comment.
It sounds like you’re suggesting that non-white people are a separate species from white people. Why can’t white people interpret a non-white country? Do white and non-white humans not share similar patterns of human behavior? I think an analysis of history will give you an answer. You have a racist’s line of reasoning, in a veil of righteousness
1:20:19 Does actually think that Trump wrote the "Art of the deal"?
No. There are however, plenty of people snobby enough to think there are people who believe this.
Indian ocean is to be governed by India, Baltic sea is for Baltic states.
The U.S. will remain a superpower for generations to come.
Steven Alibaster US will remain a biggest looser for the year to come.
Steven Alibaster US will be still in decline if US keeps its arrogant political correct.
Steven Alibaster No matter how glorious and beautiful your system was before, you could fail unless you continue to reform and behave yourselves.
China is a copy-cat country; everything within their society is a copy from another civilization. China is overdue for a fall...
Steven Alibaster When they are in decline they become very sensitive, they lost their confidence and they have no more sense of humour. When they have problem they always say all are the Chinese or other country's fault. When they steal they think everyone else is the thief or spy. When they have very bad track records (they have declared so many wars since WWII) they condemns others about "human right violations", and so on. When their media, their government and their markets have been controlled by the interests groups they endlessly remind other countries to follow the rules of "free speech", "democracy" and "free market". When they consume so much cheaper "Made in China" in their daily life and their country borrowed so much money from China they say China is just a copy-cat and would collapse soon ... funny, isn't it?
No idea what the European moderator is saying 90% of the time.
Completely useless to put someone in charge with such a thick accent.
Get it sorted Harvard!
China's success model to my mind means it can't hope to become a superpower unless the US actively let's it. It relies on a world where countries are willing to import its goods with few barriers to trade. It relies on raw material imports from every continent and it can't keep its lights on without middle eastern oil; which it has no control over. Its geographically locked in on all sides too. Its population is aging rapidly and they have a myriad of social issues stemming from the one child policy such as a shortage of females. Their many minority groups have little loyalty to the state and the state is actively persecuting them. They have an insane housing bubble, a drought problem; food production problem, regional state debt problem, they suffer capital flight and the world is growing ever hostile to them. If China is able to remain stable the next 20 years I view that as an accomplishment in on of itself.
She and Obama (and Bush and Clinton) been playing checkers with China. Trump's playing chess, and he's pinning them left and right.
32:40 maybe there's something to be said about smoking weed. Haha, gateway to enlightend premonitions perhaps;?
Niall is right about Trump!!!